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<article itemscope itemtype="http://schema.org/ScholarlyArticle">
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<div id="hLogo"><a class="navLogo" href="/policy/index.html">Social Security</a><a class="navSearch" href="https://search.ssa.gov/search?affiliate=ssa">SEARCH</a></div>
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<h1 itemprop="headline">Measures of Health and Economic Well-Being Among American Indians and Alaska Natives Aged 62 or Older in 2030</h1>
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<div id="hByline">by <span itemprop="author">Amy Dunaway-Knight, Melissa A. Z. Knoll, Dave Shoffner, and Kevin Whitman</span><br>Research and Statistics Note <abbr title="Number">No.</abbr> 2012-02 (released February 2012)</div>
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<div class="innards">
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<div class="introBox">
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<div class="eightypercent">
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<p>When this note was written, Amy Dunaway-Knight was an intern with the Social Security Administration in the Washington Internships for Native Students (WINS) program. Melissa Knoll,
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Dave Shoffner, and Kevin Whitman are with the Office of Retirement Policy, Office of Retirement and Disability Policy, Social Security Administration.</p>
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<p>The findings and conclusions presented in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the Social Security Administration.</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<h2>Introduction</h2>
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<div class="abbrtable">
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<table role="presentation">
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<caption>Selected Abbreviations</caption>
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<tr>
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<td><abbr class="spell">AIAN</abbr></td>
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<td>American Indian and Alaska Native</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td><abbr>MINT5</abbr></td>
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<td>Modeling Income in the Near Term, version 5</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td><abbr class="spell">SIPP</abbr></td>
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<td>Survey of Income and Program Participation</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td><abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr></td>
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<td>Social Security Administration</td>
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</tr>
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</table>
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</div>
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<p itemprop="description">The American Indian and Alaska Native (<abbr class="spell">AIAN</abbr>) population faces substantial hardships. When compared with the total population of the United States, the <abbr class="spell">AIAN</abbr> population has poorer health, lower earnings, and higher poverty rates (<abbr class="spell">CDC</abbr> 2011; Smith-Kaprosy, Martin, and Whitman forthcoming). However, little work has addressed the extent to which these disparities are likely to persist into retirement. This Research and Statistics Note investigates the projected demographic, health, and economic characteristics of the <abbr class="spell">AIAN</abbr> population aged 62 or older in 2030.</p>
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<p>The analysis uses projections from the Social Security Administration's (<abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr>'s) Modeling Income in the Near Term, version 5 (<abbr>MINT5</abbr>) microsimulation model. To project population characteristics, income, and assets in 2030, <abbr>MINT5</abbr> uses pooled data from the 1990 to 1996 panels of the Survey of Income and Program Participation (<abbr>SIPP</abbr>) matched with Social Security administrative records for earnings, benefits, and mortality through 2004, as well as data from the Health and Retirement Study and the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. Thus, for the youngest among the sample aged 62 or older in 2030, the model inputs include actual earnings and benefits through age 36 and projected data for older ages.<sup><a href="#mn1" id="mt1">1</a></sup> Individuals described as <abbr class="spell">AIAN</abbr> in our analysis are those who listed their race as "American Indian, Eskimo or Aleut" in the <abbr>SIPP</abbr>.<sup><a href="#mn2" id="mt2">2</a></sup></p>
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<p><abbr>MINT5</abbr> projects that <abbr class="spell">AIAN</abbr> seniors will have lower levels of health and economic well-being than the overall aged population, as measured by health status, work limitation status, disability status, lifetime earnings, per capita Social Security benefits, per capita income, per capita wealth, and poverty. In this note, we illustrate the disparities between the aged <abbr class="spell">AIAN</abbr> population and the aged population as a whole in 2030.<sup><a href="#mn3" id="mt3">3</a></sup> This analysis first describes the projected demographics of the total and <abbr class="spell">AIAN</abbr> populations and then examines the measures of health and economic status listed above. All results discussed below are restricted to individuals aged 62 or older, as projected for 2030; where applicable, further restrictions are noted.</p>
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<h2>Population Characteristics</h2>
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<p>To provide a broader context for the health and economic indicators on which this work focuses, Table 1 presents the projected age, educational attainment, and marital status distributions of individuals in the <abbr class="spell">AIAN</abbr> and total populations, as well as the projected sizes of these populations.</p>
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<div class="table" id="table1">
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<table>
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<caption><span class="tableNumber">Table 1. </span>Characteristics of the <abbr class="spell">AIAN</abbr> and total populations aged 62 or older in 2030</caption>
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<colgroup span="1" style="width:15em"></colgroup>
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<colgroup span="2" style="width:8em"></colgroup>
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<colgroup span="1" style="width:8em"></colgroup>
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<thead>
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<tr>
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<th rowspan="2" class="stubHeading" scope="colgroup">Characteristic</th>
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<th colspan="2" class="spanner" scope="colgroup">Percentage distribution of—</th>
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<th rowspan="2" scope="colgroup">Ratio of <abbr class="spell">AIAN</abbr> value to total population value </th>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<th scope="col"><abbr class="spell">AIAN</abbr> population</th>
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<th scope="col">Total population</th>
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</tr>
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</thead>
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<tbody>
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<tr>
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<th class="stub0" scope="rowgroup">Age</th>
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<td colspan="3"></td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<th class="stub1" scope="row"><span class="nobr">62–69</span></th>
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<td>48.5</td>
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<td>39.9</td>
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<td>1.2</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<th class="stub1" scope="row"><span class="nobr">70–79</span></th>
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<td>35.1</td>
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<td>40.6</td>
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<td>0.9</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<th class="stub1" scope="row"><span class="nobr">80–89</span></th>
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<td>14.3</td>
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<td>17.0</td>
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<td>0.8</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<th class="stub1" scope="row">90+</th>
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<td>2.0</td>
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<td>2.5</td>
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<td>0.8</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<th class="stub0" scope="rowgroup">Education</th>
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<td colspan="3"></td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<th class="stub1" scope="row">High school dropout</th>
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<td>23.6</td>
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<td>10.5</td>
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<td>2.2</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<th class="stub1" scope="row">High school graduate</th>
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<td>61.1</td>
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<td>59.6</td>
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<td>1.0</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<th class="stub1" scope="row">College graduate</th>
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<td>15.3</td>
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<td>29.9</td>
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<td>0.5</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<th class="stub0" scope="rowgroup">Marital status</th>
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<td colspan="3"></td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<th class="stub1" scope="row">Never married</th>
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<td>10.7</td>
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<td>6.5</td>
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<td>1.6</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<th class="stub1" scope="row">Married</th>
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<td>48.1</td>
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<td>54.7</td>
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<td>0.9</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<th class="stub1" scope="row">Widowed</th>
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<td>17.3</td>
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<td>18.9</td>
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<td>0.9</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<th class="stub1" scope="row">Divorced</th>
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<td>24.0</td>
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<td>19.9</td>
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<td>1.2</td>
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</tr>
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<tr class="shaded">
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<th class="stub0" scope="rowgroup">Population size</th>
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<td>612,835</td>
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<td>77,809,053</td>
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<td>a</td>
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</tr>
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</tbody>
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<tfoot>
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<tr>
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<td class="firstNote" colspan="4">SOURCE: Authors' calculations using <abbr>MINT5</abbr>.</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td class="note" colspan="4">NOTE: The unweighted sample sizes for the <abbr class="spell">AIAN</abbr> and total populations are 443 and 78,485, respectively.
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<div class="newNote">Rounded components of percentage distributions do not necessarily sum to 100.</div>
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</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td class="lastNote" colspan="4">a. Less than 0.05.</td>
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</tr>
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</tfoot>
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</table>
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</div>
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<h3>Population Size</h3>
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<p>The population is projected to include over 600,000 <abbr class="spell">AIAN</abbr> individuals. This is less than 1 percent of the total aged population in 2030, which is projected to be almost 78 million. Current estimates place the single-race <abbr class="spell">AIAN</abbr> population at 0.87 percent of the total <abbr class="spell">US</abbr> population and the multiple-race <abbr class="spell">AIAN</abbr> population at 1.53 percent of the <abbr class="spell">US</abbr> population (Ogunwole 2006).<sup><a href="#mn4" id="mt4">4</a></sup></p>
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<h3>Age distribution</h3>
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<p>Larger shares of the <abbr class="spell">AIAN</abbr> population are projected to fall into the younger age groups than are those of the total population. For example, 48.5 percent of the projected aged <abbr class="spell">AIAN</abbr> population is between ages 62 and 69, compared with 39.9 percent of the total population.</p>
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<h3>Educational attainment</h3>
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<p>The <abbr class="spell">AIAN</abbr> group is projected to be less educated than the total population. Nearly <span class="nobr">one-quarter</span> of the aged <abbr class="spell">AIAN</abbr> population will have less than a high school education, compared with 10.5 percent of the total population. The share of each group who will graduate high school is similar, but the share of the <abbr class="spell">AIAN</abbr> population who will be college graduates is roughly <span class="nobr">one-half</span> that for the total population (15.3 percent, compared with 29.9 percent).</p>
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<h3>Marital status</h3>
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<p>The shares of the <abbr class="spell">AIAN</abbr> population projected to be divorced and never married are greater than those of the total population. Around 11 percent of the aged <abbr class="spell">AIAN</abbr> population is projected to never marry, compared with 6.5 percent of the total population. Further, 24.0 percent of <abbr class="spell">AIAN</abbr>s are projected to be divorced, while the comparable figure for the total population is 19.9 percent.<sup><a href="#mn5" id="mt5">5</a></sup></p>
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<h2>Health</h2>
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<p>Table 2 presents several health-related variables. Two broad measures of well-being are self-reported health status (here categorized as either poor/fair or good/excellent) and work limitations (categorized as preventing work, not preventing work, and no limitations). Health status applies to all aged 62 or older, but the work limitation variable is restricted to those aged <span class="nobr">62–67</span>. Both variables are based on self-assessed measures in the Health and Retirement Study that <abbr>MINT5</abbr> projects forward. Table 2 also shows the share of individuals that <abbr>MINT5</abbr> projects will ever receive Social Security disability benefits.</p>
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<div class="table" id="table2">
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<table>
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<caption><span class="tableNumber">Table 2. </span>Health indicators for the <abbr class="spell">AIAN</abbr> and total populations aged 62 or older in 2030</caption>
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<colgroup span="1" style="width:15em"></colgroup>
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<colgroup span="2" style="width:8em"></colgroup>
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<colgroup span="1" style="width:8em"></colgroup>
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<thead>
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<tr>
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<th rowspan="2" class="stubHeading" scope="colgroup">Indicator</th>
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<th colspan="2" class="spanner" scope="colgroup">Percentage distribution of—</th>
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<th rowspan="2" scope="colgroup">Ratio of <abbr class="spell">AIAN</abbr> value to total population value</th>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<th scope="col"><abbr class="spell">AIAN</abbr> population</th>
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<th scope="col">Total population</th>
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</tr>
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</thead>
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<tbody>
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<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="rowgroup">Self-reported health status</th>
|
|
<td colspan="3"></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Excellent or good</th>
|
|
<td>54.2</td>
|
|
<td>66.4</td>
|
|
<td>0.8</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Fair or poor</th>
|
|
<td>45.8</td>
|
|
<td>33.6</td>
|
|
<td>1.4</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="rowgroup">Work limitations <sup>a</sup></th>
|
|
<td colspan="3"></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Preventing any work</th>
|
|
<td>34.3</td>
|
|
<td>15.2</td>
|
|
<td>2.3</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Not preventing work</th>
|
|
<td>18.3</td>
|
|
<td>12.8</td>
|
|
<td>1.4</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">No limitations</th>
|
|
<td>47.3</td>
|
|
<td>71.9</td>
|
|
<td>0.7</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr class="shaded">
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="rowgroup">Percentage ever receiving Social Security disability benefits</th>
|
|
<td>16.0</td>
|
|
<td>10.8</td>
|
|
<td>1.5</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tbody>
|
|
<tfoot>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="firstNote" colspan="4">SOURCE: Authors' calculations using <abbr>MINT5</abbr>.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="note" colspan="4">NOTE: Rounded components of percentage distributions do not necessarily sum to 100.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="lastNote" colspan="4">a. Analysis is restricted to persons aged <span class="nobr">62–67</span>.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tfoot>
|
|
</table>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<h3>Health status</h3>
|
|
<p>The <abbr class="spell">AIAN</abbr> population's projected health status is substantially poorer than that of the total population. Almost 46 percent of the aged <abbr class="spell">AIAN</abbr> population is in fair or poor health, compared with 33.6 percent of the total population.</p>
|
|
<h3>Work limitations</h3>
|
|
<p><abbr>MINT5</abbr> also projects that the <abbr class="spell">AIAN</abbr> population aged <span class="nobr">62–67</span> will have higher rates of work limitations than the total population will. Limitations that prevent work are projected to affect 34.3 percent of the <abbr class="spell">AIAN</abbr> population aged <span class="nobr">62–67</span>, more than double the 15.2 percent figure projected for the total population in that age range.</p>
|
|
<h3>Disability</h3>
|
|
<p>The percentage of the population projected to receive Social Security disability benefits at some point in their lives is also higher among the <abbr class="spell">AIAN</abbr> population than among the total population, at 16.0 percent and 10.8 percent, respectively. The ever-disabled group includes those who are currently receiving disability benefits or who have previously received them and are now at or above full retirement age. To be categorized as disabled for Social Security benefit purposes, an individual must have a medically determinable impairment that prevents work and is "expected to last at least one year or result in death" (<abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> 2011).<sup><a href="#mn6" id="mt6">6</a></sup></p>
|
|
<h2>Economic Well-Being</h2>
|
|
<p>The <abbr class="spell">AIAN</abbr> population is also projected to fare worse than the total population in measures of economic well-being (Table 3). Economic variables analyzed include lifetime shared earnings, per capita monthly Social Security benefits, per capita monthly income, per capita wealth, and poverty. Lifetime shared earnings are the present value of real (inflation-adjusted) individual earnings in years when the individual is single and <span class="nobr">one-half</span> the sum total of the married couple's earnings in years when that individual is married.<sup><a href="#mn7" id="mt7">7</a></sup> Per capita monthly Social Security benefits are the sum of all Social Security benefits that household members receive, divided by the number of people in the household. Per capita monthly income is the sum of any Social Security benefits and Supplemental Security Income (<abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>) payments the household receives, plus respondent and spouse earnings, defined benefit pension income, asset income, and any coresident income, all divided by household size.<sup><a href="#mn8" id="mt8">8</a>, <a href="#mn9" id="mt9">9</a></sup> Per capita wealth is total family assets excluding housing wealth, divided by household size.<sup><a href="#mn10" id="mt10">10</a></sup> Poverty is measured by expressing income as a percentage of Census Bureau poverty thresholds projected forward, taking into account family size and elderly status.<sup><a href="#mn11" id="mt11">11</a></sup></p>
|
|
<div class="table" id="table3">
|
|
<table>
|
|
<caption><span class="tableNumber">Table 3. </span>Indicators of economic well-being of the <abbr class="spell">AIAN</abbr> and total populations aged 62 or older in 2030</caption>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:22em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="3" style="width:8em"></colgroup>
|
|
<thead>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stubHeading" scope="col">Indicator</th>
|
|
<th scope="col"><abbr class="spell">AIAN</abbr> population</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Total population</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Ratio of <abbr class="spell">AIAN</abbr> value to total population value </th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</thead>
|
|
<tbody>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="rowgroup">Present value of lifetime shared earnings ($)</th>
|
|
<td colspan="3"></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">75th percentile</th>
|
|
<td>2,755,480</td>
|
|
<td>3,815,507</td>
|
|
<td>0.7</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Median</th>
|
|
<td>1,809,197</td>
|
|
<td>2,655,726</td>
|
|
<td>0.7</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">25th percentile</th>
|
|
<td>1,171,525</td>
|
|
<td>1,629,657</td>
|
|
<td>0.7</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="rowgroup">Per capita monthly Social Security benefits ($)</th>
|
|
<td colspan="3"></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">75th percentile</th>
|
|
<td>1,425</td>
|
|
<td>1,595</td>
|
|
<td>0.9</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Median</th>
|
|
<td>1,038</td>
|
|
<td>1,168</td>
|
|
<td>0.9</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">25th percentile</th>
|
|
<td>582</td>
|
|
<td>707</td>
|
|
<td>0.8</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="rowgroup">Per capita monthly income ($)</th>
|
|
<td colspan="3"></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">75th percentile</th>
|
|
<td>3,504</td>
|
|
<td>5,400</td>
|
|
<td>0.6</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Median</th>
|
|
<td>2,063</td>
|
|
<td>2,948</td>
|
|
<td>0.7</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">25th percentile</th>
|
|
<td>1,222</td>
|
|
<td>1,752</td>
|
|
<td>0.7</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="rowgroup">Per capita wealth ($)</th>
|
|
<td colspan="3"></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">75th percentile</th>
|
|
<td>217,811</td>
|
|
<td>399,770</td>
|
|
<td>0.5</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Median</th>
|
|
<td>67,132</td>
|
|
<td>137,410</td>
|
|
<td>0.5</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">25th percentile</th>
|
|
<td>16,898</td>
|
|
<td>37,499</td>
|
|
<td>0.5</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="rowgroup">Percentage of the population having income at selected percentages of the poverty threshold </th>
|
|
<td colspan="3"></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row"><span class="nobr">0–100</span></th>
|
|
<td>10.9</td>
|
|
<td>4.7</td>
|
|
<td>2.3</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row"><span class="nobr">0–150</span></th>
|
|
<td>20.1</td>
|
|
<td>9.9</td>
|
|
<td>2.0</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row"><span class="nobr">0–200</span></th>
|
|
<td>29.6</td>
|
|
<td>16.2</td>
|
|
<td>1.8</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Greater than 200</th>
|
|
<td>70.4</td>
|
|
<td>83.8</td>
|
|
<td>0.8</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tbody>
|
|
<tfoot>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="firstNote" colspan="4">SOURCE: Authors' calculations using <abbr>MINT5</abbr>.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="lastNote" colspan="4">NOTE: All dollar amounts are in 2009 real dollars. </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tfoot>
|
|
</table>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<h3>Lifetime shared earnings</h3>
|
|
<p>The present value of lifetime shared earnings is substantially lower for the <abbr class="spell">AIAN</abbr> population than for the total population. The <abbr class="spell">AIAN</abbr> population's median lifetime shared earnings is projected to be $1.8 million, which is roughly 70 percent of the value projected for the total population.</p>
|
|
<h3>Per capita monthly Social Security benefits</h3>
|
|
<p>Per capita Social Security benefits are also projected to be lower among the <abbr class="spell">AIAN</abbr> population than for the total population. The median monthly per capita benefit will be $1,038 for the <abbr class="spell">AIAN</abbr>s, compared with $1,168 for the total population. The percentage difference is smaller than that projected for lifetime earnings, likely reflecting the progressivity of Social Security's benefit formula, which replaces a higher share of earnings for lower lifetime earners.</p>
|
|
<h3>Per capita income</h3>
|
|
<p>Examining all income sources, per capita monthly income for the aged <abbr class="spell">AIAN</abbr> population is lower than that for the total population, with the most substantial differences appearing at the higher end of the income distribution. The projected median per capita income for the <abbr class="spell">AIAN</abbr> population is $2,063, compared with $2,948 for the total population. At the 75th percentile, the value for the <abbr class="spell">AIAN</abbr> group ($3,504) is almost 65 percent of that for the total aged population ($5,400).</p>
|
|
<h3>Per capita wealth</h3>
|
|
<p>The percentage differences in per capita wealth between the <abbr class="spell">AIAN</abbr> population and the total population are even larger than those for per capita income. Projected median per capita wealth for <abbr class="spell">AIAN</abbr>s is $67,132, compared with $137,410 for the total aged population. Similar disparities are found at the higher and lower ends of the wealth spectrum.</p>
|
|
<h3>Poverty</h3>
|
|
<p>Projected poverty among the <abbr class="spell">AIAN</abbr> population is far higher than that for the total population. The proportion of the <abbr class="spell">AIAN</abbr> population projected to be living in poverty—10.9 percent—is more than twice that of the whole population (4.7 percent). Focusing on "near poverty," meaning income not exceeding 150 percent of the poverty level, the same pattern appears. Around <span class="nobr">one-fifth</span> (20.1 percent) of the <abbr class="spell">AIAN</abbr> population is projected to have income at or below 150 percent of the poverty threshold. The comparable figure for the total population is 9.9 percent.</p>
|
|
<h2>Conclusion</h2>
|
|
<p><abbr>MINT5</abbr> projections indicate that <abbr class="spell">AIAN</abbr>s aged 62 or older in 2030 will have substantially poorer health and lower levels of economic well-being than the aged population at large. The projected relative vulnerability of this group is consistent with many of the patterns seen in current data comparing <abbr class="spell">AIAN</abbr>s with the overall population.</p>
|
|
<p>The elderly <abbr class="spell">AIAN</abbr> group consistently fares worse than the total population in the health and economic characteristics examined herein. For example, the share of the <abbr class="spell">AIAN</abbr> population aged <span class="nobr">62–67</span> reporting health problems that prevent work is more than double the total population figure. These types of impairments, coupled with the effects of sociodemographic characteristics such as lower educational attainment, may contribute to the differences in income and wealth between the two populations. Per capita income and per capita wealth figures are far lower for the elderly <abbr class="spell">AIAN</abbr> population in 2030 than they are for the total population, and projected poverty rates reflect these differences.</p>
|
|
<p>The <abbr class="spell">AIAN</abbr> population is varied, and future research could further examine subsets within this larger category to create a more nuanced picture of the challenges the group faces throughout life—and particularly in old age. Additional research in this topic area could help inform policymakers seeking to improve the retirement security of vulnerable populations.</p>
|
|
<div id="notes">
|
|
<h2>Notes</h2>
|
|
<p> <a href="#mt1" id="mn1">1</a> For a complete description of <abbr>MINT5</abbr>, see Smith and others (2007). For a broader <abbr>MINT</abbr> overview, see <a href="/policy/about/mint.html">http://www.socialsecurity.gov/policy/about/mint.html</a>.</p>
|
|
<p> <a href="#mt2" id="mn2">2</a> For the <abbr>SIPP</abbr> panels used in <abbr>MINT5</abbr>, respondents could select only a single race. However, readers should be aware that the <abbr class="spell">AIAN</abbr> population is heterogeneous and includes individuals with single- or multi-race ancestry in a range of diverse independent nations with distinct historical and contemporary characteristics.</p>
|
|
<p> <a href="#mt3" id="mn3">3</a> Fully exploring the possible determinants and consequences of the characteristics projected herein is beyond the scope of a Research and Statistics Note.</p>
|
|
<p> <a href="#mt4" id="mn4">4</a> Previous research has shown that average life expectancy for the <abbr class="spell">AIAN</abbr> population is lower than the <abbr class="spell">US</abbr> average (<abbr class="spell">IHS</abbr> 2011). The smaller projected <abbr class="spell">AIAN</abbr> share of the aged population, when compared with <abbr class="spell">AIAN</abbr> representation in the total population, is consistent with this difference in mortality.</p>
|
|
<p> <a href="#mt5" id="mn5">5</a> Previous research has shown that projected poverty rates for divorced and never-married individuals aged 62 or older are higher than those for married and widowed individuals (Tamborini 2007).</p>
|
|
<p> <a href="#mt6" id="mn6">6</a> Eligibility for Social Security disability benefits can be based on physical impairments, mental impairments, or a combination of both. To receive Social Security disability benefits, an individual also must be insured under the program by meeting certain work requirements for the period prior to disability onset. See <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> (2011) for an overview of Social Security's disability benefits.</p>
|
|
<p> <a href="#mt7" id="mn7">7</a> We use a discount rate equal to the new-issue rate for the Social Security trust funds to calculate the present value. The discount rate is based on actual rates for <span class="nobr">1951–2007.</span> For <span class="nobr">2008–2016,</span> the rate varies from 1.9 percent to 3.0 percent, and from 2017 forward it remains constant at 2.9 percent, based respectively on short-term and long-term projections of the Office of the Chief Actuary. This definition of shared lifetime earnings will be revised for future versions of <abbr>MINT</abbr>.</p>
|
|
<p> <a href="#mt8" id="mn8">8</a> Our asset income measure represents 80 percent of all nonhousing financial assets annuitized using a unisex annuity factor to create an income stream.</p>
|
|
<p> <a href="#mt9" id="mn9">9</a> For a description of the <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> program, see <a href="/ssi">http://socialsecurity.gov/pgm/ssi.htm</a>.</p>
|
|
<p><a href="#mt10" id="mn10">10</a> Family assets include retirement, savings, checking, and money market accounts; certificate of deposit (<abbr class="spell">CD</abbr>) balances; stocks; bonds; farm, business, vehicle, and nonhome real estate equity; and other assets; less unsecured debt.</p>
|
|
<p><a href="#mt11" id="mn11">11</a> For Census Bureau poverty thresholds, see <a href="https://www.census.gov/topics/income-poverty/poverty/guidance/poverty-measures.html">http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/poverty/data/threshld/index.html</a>.</p>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<div id="references">
|
|
<h2>References</h2>
|
|
<p>[<abbr class="spell">CDC</abbr>] Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. 2011. <abbr class="spell">CDC</abbr> Health Disparities and Inequalities Report – United States, 2011. Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report Supplement, <abbr title="Volume">Vol.</abbr> 60. Washington, <abbr class="spell">DC</abbr>: Government Printing Office. <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/pdf/other/su6001.pdf">http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/pdf/other/su6001.pdf</a>.</p>
|
|
<p>[<abbr class="spell">IHS</abbr>] Indian Health Service. 2011. "Indian Health Disparities." <abbr class="spell">IHS</abbr> Fact Sheet. http://www.ihs.gov/PublicAffairs/IHSBrochure/Disparities.asp.</p>
|
|
<p>Ogunwole, Stella U. 2006. <i>We the People: American Indians and Alaska Natives in the United States.</i> Census 2000 Special Report <abbr class="spell">CNSR</abbr>-28. Washington, <abbr class="spell">DC</abbr>: Census Bureau. <a href="https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2006/dec/censr-28.html">http://www.census.gov/prod/2006pubs/censr-28.pdf</a>.</p>
|
|
<p>Smith, Karen E., Melissa M. Favreault, Caroline Ratcliffe, Barbara Butrica, and Eric Toder. 2007. <i>Final Report: Modeling Income in the Near Term 5.</i> Washington, <abbr class="spell">DC</abbr>: Urban Institute Press. <a href="https://www.urban.org/research/publication/modeling-income-near-term-5">http://www.urban.org/UploadedPDF/411571_MINT5.pdf</a>.</p>
|
|
<p>Smith-Kaprosy, Nolan, Patricia P. Martin, and Kevin Whitman. Forthcoming. "An Overview of American Indians and Alaska Natives in the Context of Social Security and Supplemental Security Income." Washington, <abbr class="spell">DC</abbr>: <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr>.</p>
|
|
<p>[<abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr>] Social Security Administration. 2011. "Disability Benefits." <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> Publication <abbr title="Number">No.</abbr> <span class="nobr">05-10029.</span> Baltimore, <abbr title="Maryland">MD</abbr>: <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr>. <a href="/pubs/EN-05-10029.pdf">http://www.socialsecurity.gov/pubs/10029.html</a>.</p>
|
|
<p>Tamborini, Christopher R. 2007. "<a href="/policy/docs/ssb/v67n2/v67n2p25.html">The Never Married in <span class="nobr">Old-Age:</span> Projections and Concerns for the Near Future</a>." <i>Social Security Bulletin</i> 67(2): <span class="nobr">25–40</span>.</p>
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