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<h1 itemprop="headline">The Effects of the Workforce Innovation and Opportunity Act of 2014 on Vocational Rehabilitation Engagement, Employment, and Work Incentive Use Among Supplemental Security Income Recipients Aged 14–24</h1>
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<div id="hByline">by <span itemprop="author">Isabel Musse, Todd Honeycutt, and Jeffrey Hemmeter</span><br>Social Security Bulletin, <abbr title="Volume">Vol.</abbr> 84 <abbr title="Number">No.</abbr> 4, 2024 (released November 2024)</div>
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<p id="synopsis" itemprop="description">The Workforce Innovation and Opportunity Act (<abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr>) of 2014 requires state vocational rehabilitation (<abbr class="spell">VR</abbr>) agencies to offer preemployment transition services <span class="nobr">(pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr>)</span> to students with disabilities. Using data for <span class="nobr">2010–2021</span> from the Social Security Administration and the Department of Education's Rehabilitation Services Administration, we show that youths aged <span class="nobr">14–24</span> with disabilities who receive Supplemental Security Income (<abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>) payments were more likely to apply for <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> services, sign individualized plans for employment (<abbr class="spell">IPE</abbr>s), and have higher annual earnings after <abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr> enactment than before. In states that offered greater <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> access to students, young <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients were more likely to sign <abbr class="spell">IPE</abbr>s, have any earnings, and use an <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> work incentive (the Section 301 payment continuation) than in states providing less access. The access to <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> that <abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr> provided likely contributed to higher youth engagement with <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> and may be associated with better employment outcomes.</p>
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<div class="eightypercent">
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<p>Isabel Musse is a researcher at Mathematica. Todd Honeycutt is a research professor at the University of Maryland's College of Education; when this article was written, he was a researcher at Mathematica. Jeffrey Hemmeter is the Deputy Associate Commissioner for the Office of Research, Demonstration, and Employment Support, Office of Retirement and Disability Policy, Social Security Administration.</p>
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<p><i>Acknowledgments:</i> The research reported herein was derived in whole or in part from research activities performed pursuant to a grant from the Social Security Administration (<abbr title="number">no.</abbr> <span class="nobr"><abbr class="spell">RDR</abbr>18000004-05-00)</span> funded as part of the Retirement and Disability Research Consortium. A previous version of this article was published as Center for Retirement Research at Boston College Working Paper <abbr title="Number">No.</abbr> <span class="nobr">2024-5</span> (<a href="https://crr.bc.edu/how-did-the-expansion-of-vocational-rehabilitation-services-affect-youth-receiving-ssi/">https://crr.bc.edu/how-did-the-expansion-of-vocational-rehabilitation-services-affect-youth-receiving-ssi/</a>). The authors appreciate the insightful comments and recommendations of Paul O'Leary, Shada Roper, Chelsea Shudtz, Ty Turner, and Robert Weathers at the Social Security Administration; and of Gina Livermore at Mathematica.</p>
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<p>Contents of this publication are <a href="/policy/accessibility.html">not copyrighted</a>; any items may be reprinted, but citation of the <i>Social Security Bulletin</i> as the source is requested. The findings and conclusions presented in the <i>Bulletin</i> are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the Social Security Administration.</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<h2>Introduction</h2>
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<div class="abbrtable">
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<table>
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<caption>Selected Abbreviations</caption>
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<colgroup span="1" style="width:25%"></colgroup>
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<colgroup span="1"></colgroup>
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<tbody>
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<tr>
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<td><abbr>IDEA</abbr></td>
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<td>Individuals with Disabilities Education Act</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td><abbr class="spell">IEP</abbr></td>
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<td>individualized education program</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td><abbr class="spell">IPE</abbr></td>
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<td>individualized plan for employment</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td>pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></td>
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<td>preemployment transition services</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td><abbr>PROMISE</abbr></td>
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<td>Promoting Readiness of Minors in <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr></td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td><abbr class="spell">RSA</abbr></td>
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<td>Rehabilitation Services Administration</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td><abbr class="spell">SEIE</abbr></td>
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<td>student earned income exclusion</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td><abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr></td>
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<td>Social Security Administration</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td><abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr></td>
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<td>Supplemental Security Income</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td><abbr class="spell">VR</abbr></td>
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<td>vocational rehabilitation</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td><abbr class="spell">WBLE</abbr></td>
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<td>work-based learning experience</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td><abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr></td>
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<td>Workforce Innovation and Opportunity Act</td>
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</tr>
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</tbody>
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</table>
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</div>
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<p>The Workforce Innovation and Opportunity Act (<abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr>) of 2014 amended the Rehabilitation Act of 1973 and significantly shifted how state vocational rehabilitation (<abbr class="spell">VR</abbr>) agencies offered services to youths with disabilities, particularly to students. <abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr> requires state <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> agencies to offer preemployment transition services <span class="nobr">(pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr>)</span> to students with disabilities and to reserve at least 15 percent of their federal program funds for that purpose (Department of Labor 2014). This article explores the extent to which <abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr> and <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> access affected employment-related outcomes for youths with disabilities who receive Supplemental Security Income (<abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>) payments. Understanding whether <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> help students transition from high school to better postsecondary education and employment opportunities is critical because a successful transition can improve a young person's future employment prospects and earnings, health-related quality of life, and well-being. Moreover, evidence on the effectiveness of transition support programs for this population is limited (Urdapilleta and others 2020).</p>
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<p>The influence of <abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr> on <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> service applicants and participants has been previously documented. When youths approaching the transition to adulthood are exposed to services such as <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr>,</span> they are more likely to sign an individualized plan for employment (<abbr class="spell">IPE</abbr>) and use <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> services (Luecking and others 2018). Increased <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> engagement may lead to better employment and earnings outcomes (Dean and others 2019; Yin, Siwach, and Lin 2023), including for young <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients (Hoffman, Hemmeter, and Bailey 2018). Although youths constituted a larger proportion of <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> service applicants after <abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr> than before (Department of Education 2020), we know of no quantitative evidence showing how the employment outcomes of transition-age youths changed after <abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr> was implemented and <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> became available.</p>
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<p>This article aims to measure how <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> engagement, employment, and <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> work incentive use changed for <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients aged <span class="nobr">14–24</span> after the 2014 enactment of <abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr> made <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> available. Using rich administrative data from the Social Security Administration (<abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr>) and the Department of Education's Rehabilitation Services Administration (<abbr class="spell">RSA</abbr>), we construct two models and measure how youth outcomes changed from 2010 to 2021. In the first model, we adjust for state and individual characteristics to estimate the extent to which <abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr> affected the percentage of young <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients who applied for <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> services, the percentage who signed <abbr class="spell">IPE</abbr>s, the percentage who had any annual earnings, the annual earnings amounts, and the percentage who used either of two <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> work incentives: the student earned income exclusion (<abbr class="spell">SEIE</abbr>) and a continuation of payment eligibility for recipients who use <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> or similar services, named for its authorizing legislation, Section 301 of the Social Security Act Disability Amendments of 1980. In the second model, we explore the effects of different levels of <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> access by state and year.<sup><a href="#mn1" id="mt1">1</a></sup> We then estimate the association between state-level <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> access and changes in outcomes for young <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients.</p>
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<p>This article documents the influence of <abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr> on youths who have disabilities that pose substantive employment barriers. More of these youths applied for <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> services, signed an <abbr class="spell">IPE</abbr> that would allow them to access services beyond <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr>,</span> and had higher annual earnings after <abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr> than before. Moreover, those in states offering greater <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> access also had higher annual employment rates and earnings amounts, as well as higher rates of <abbr class="spell">SEIE</abbr> use, after <abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr>. For 2017 to 2021, we observe positive correlations between state-level <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> access and the signing of <abbr class="spell">IPE</abbr>s, employment, earnings, and use of the Section 301 work incentive.</p>
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<h2>Background</h2>
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<p>In this section, we discuss how <abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr> affected the provision of employment-support services for youths with disabilities. We then describe the challenges to employment for our study population and summarize the literature on their interactions with services like <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr>.</span></p>
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<h3><abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr> and Pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></h3>
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<p><abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr> instituted new requirements for state <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> agencies that provide services for students with disabilities. For example, it requires state <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> agencies to reserve at least 15 percent of their federal program funds to offer <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> to students with disabilities (Department of Labor 2014). A state <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> agency must make <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> available to all students with disabilities, regardless of whether they apply for other <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> services at the agency. In addition to preparing a student for employment, <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> could lead some students to apply for additional <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> services before entering employment. </p>
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<p>The Department of Education (2020) defines “student with a disability” as “an individual who is in an educational program, meets certain age requirements, and is eligible for and receiving special education or related services under the Individuals with Disabilities Education Act [<abbr>IDEA</abbr>] or is an individual with a disability for purposes of Section 504 of the Rehabilitation Act (Section 7(37) of the Rehabilitation Act and 34 C.F.R. § 361.5(51)).” Students can be enrolled in high school, a recognized educational setting, or postsecondary education institutions. They are typically aged 16 to 21, although the specific age range varies with the state's age requirements for <abbr>IDEA</abbr>-mandated transition services and the minimum age agreed upon with the state <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> agency (Carlson, Thompson, and Monahan 2020).</p>
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<p><abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> agencies and educators often collaborate to provide <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> at schools (Fabian, Neubert, and Luecking 2018). The school setting is especially suitable because <abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr> allows <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> agency staff to work with students in groups rather than individually. <abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr> defines five specific services that agencies must offer to students with disabilities: (1) job exploration counseling (such as career counseling or vocational interest inventories), (2) work-based learning experiences (<abbr class="spell">WBLE</abbr>s; examples include job shadowing or internships), (3) counseling on opportunities for enrollment in comprehensive transition or postsecondary educational programs at institutions of higher education, (4) workplace readiness training (such as life skills and financial literacy), and (5) instruction in self-advocacy (such as self-determination training or peer mentoring).</p>
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<p>The successful implementation of <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> depends on factors involving students, their families, <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> providers, educators, and local area characteristics. Students and their families may not be adequately informed about the purpose of <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> services and the availability of services in their areas (Schutz and others 2022; Awsumb, Balcazar, and Keel 2019). Students may also lack the resources and support required for their <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> engagement because of their needs and disabilities (Fabian, Neubert, and Luecking 2018; Bromley and others 2022). <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> counselors report challenges related to the increased caseload and paperwork involved with serving eligible and potentially eligible students after <abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr>, in addition to insufficient time and financial resources to implement <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> (Fabian, Neubert, and Luecking 2018; Awsumb and others 2020). Despite the overall collaborative relationships between <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> counselors and local schools, some educators struggle to connect with students who could benefit from <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> but are unfamiliar with the services (Carter and others 2021). Finally, successfully implementing some services depends on local area characteristics, such as the availability of employers interested in offering community-based <abbr class="spell">WBLE</abbr>s to students (Bromley and others 2022).</p>
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<p>To date, <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> agency implementation of <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> has varied, which could lead to differences in the outcomes for students with disabilities across states. For example, in program year 2021 (July 2021–June 2022), the percentage of students with disabilities receiving <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> services who used <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> ranged from 100 percent in Illinois to 14 percent in Puerto Rico. Further, in that same year, the percentage of <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> participants who were younger than 19 when they signed their <abbr class="spell">IPE</abbr> ranged from 63 percent in Illinois to 7 percent in Oregon (Department of Education 2022). The student participation patterns also differ: in Illinois, 94 percent of students with disabilities who used <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> had applied for <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> services, and the remainder were potentially eligible; in Oregon, the percentage of students with disabilities who used <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> and had applied for <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> services was only 1 percent.</p>
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<h3>Young <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> Recipients</h3>
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<p>This study focuses on <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients aged <span class="nobr">14–24.</span> Most, but not all, in the younger part of that age range are probably students. <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> is a means-tested cash payment for individuals with significant disabilities.<sup><a href="#mn2" id="mt2">2</a></sup> Given their income, asset, and health situations, the post-school employment prospects for these youths may benefit from <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> even more than those of other youths with disabilities.</p>
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<p>Youths with disabilities, in general, might not be adequately prepared for employment because they lack career development, learning, and training opportunities. Despite the potential availability of public programs that offer these services, youths with disabilities might face challenges in using them because of complex eligibility rules, fragmented transition systems, and other barriers (Livermore and others 2019).</p>
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<p>Such challenges in achieving employment are likely to be even more significant for <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients because of their low household resources and limiting health conditions. Based on 2021 Current Population Survey data, the median household income for an <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipient aged 17 was $51,600 and for one aged 18 it was $60,500. For comparison, the median household income for youths with disabilities but not receiving <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> was $78,300 at age 17 and $93,300 at age 18 (Flood and others 2023). The employment rates of youths with a disability are 22 percent for those aged <span class="nobr">16–19</span> and 46 percent for those aged <span class="nobr">20–24.</span> By contrast, youths in those age groups with no disability have employment rates of 33 percent and 68 percent, respectively (Bureau of Labor Statistics 2024). Moreover, young <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients are less likely to use <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> services after applying for them, and their <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> cases are less likely to close with employment, than are nonrecipient youths with disabilities (Honeycutt, Martin, and Wittenburg 2017).</p>
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<p>For these reasons, <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> and other <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> services can help young <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients to transition from high school with better postsecondary education and employment opportunities. A successful transition can lead to upward mobility by improving future employment and earnings prospects, health-related quality of life, and well-being (Hartman and others 2019).</p>
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<h3>Employment-Related Outcomes of Young <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> Recipients</h3>
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<p>We are not aware of direct evidence on how <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> affects employment outcomes for transition-age youths, but literature documents outcomes for youths who use services similar to <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr>.</span> Although <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> services can improve employment outcomes for transition-age youths, the findings are mixed. Correlational evidence shows that youths who use <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> services, including <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients, have better <span class="nobr">long-term</span> employment outcomes than those who do not (Hoffman, Hemmeter, and Bailey 2018). Osmani and others (2022) showed that an immersive experience (Project <abbr>SEARCH</abbr>) was correlated with higher probability of successful <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> case closure. Yin, Siwach, and Lin (2023) presented causal evidence that <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> services increased youth employment rates and earnings for up to 2 years after case closure, with greater effects for those aged <span class="nobr">14–18</span> than for those aged <span class="nobr">19–24.</span> Dean and others (2019) found that youths with disabilities participating in a transition program had increased employment and earnings for more than 2 years after the end of the program. </p>
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<p>A series of recent studies measured the effect of offering <abbr class="spell">WBLE</abbr>s to high school students with disabilities in Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, and Vermont. Despite the successful implementation of these programs, <abbr class="spell">WBLE</abbr>s were not consistently associated with improved employment outcomes up to 24 months after enrollment, although participants in Massachusetts had higher mean hourly wages (Foley and others 2022; Mann and others 2021; Sevak and others 2021; Siwach and others 2021). Finally, two demonstrations—the Youth Transition Demonstration (<abbr class="spell">YTD</abbr>) and Promoting Readiness of Minors in <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> (<abbr>PROMISE</abbr>)—offered employment and other services to young <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients. In <abbr class="spell">YTD</abbr>, six independent projects tested a variety of service models, but all generally focused on providing employment services to youths aged 14 to 25. Although the projects had positive <span class="nobr">short-term</span> effects on service receipt and other outcomes, the employment results were not sustained (Fraker and others 2014). <abbr>PROMISE</abbr> offered employment and other services through six school-to-work transition programs to <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients aged <span class="nobr">14–16.</span> These programs used different service models, but all focused on state and local partnerships, case management, and employment, and all offered to connect youths with <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> agencies. All programs affected service use and employment within 18 months of enrollment, a period that includes youths' direct involvement with the programs (Mamun and others 2019). Only two <abbr>PROMISE</abbr> programs had positive employment effects for youths 5 years after enrollment (that is, after they left the programs) (Patnaik and others 2022; Mamun and others 2019).</p>
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<p>Improved employment rates associated with the use of <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> and <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> services may lead more <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients to use work incentives. Although <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> provides several work incentives, we focus on two that are especially relevant to transition-age youths: the <abbr class="spell">SEIE</abbr> and Section 301 payment continuations. For students who have an individualized education program (<abbr class="spell">IEP</abbr>), the <abbr class="spell">SEIE</abbr> allows <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> to exclude a portion of the <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipient's earnings in computing payment eligibility and amounts if the recipient is younger than 22 and regularly attending school, college, university, or a course of vocational or technical training. In 2023, an individual's maximum income exclusion was $2,220 per month, with the total annual amount not to exceed $8,950 (<abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> 2023, 2024). Section 301 of the Social Security Act Disability Amendments of 1980 allows <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> to continue making monthly <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> payments to recipients who participate in <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> or similar services, even if they no longer meet <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr>'s medical or work-related definition of having a qualifying disability.</p>
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<p>The use of the <abbr class="spell">SEIE</abbr> and Section 301 payments historically has been low. From 2012 through 2015, less than 1.5 percent of <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients aged <span class="nobr">14–17</span> used an <abbr class="spell">SEIE</abbr>; and in 2015, about 1,200 recipients aged <span class="nobr">18–19</span> used Section 301 continuations. Use of the <abbr class="spell">SEIE</abbr> may be low either because youths and their families have not heard of it or they fear that using it could negatively affect their payments. Potential reasons for low use of Section 301 continuations could include the limited number of individuals younger than 18 who used <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> services and rules restricting eligibility for those aged <span class="nobr">18–21</span> to those having an <abbr class="spell">IEP</abbr> (Government Accountability Office 2017, 2021). Additionally, the Section 301 incentive is available only if an individual has not requested continued payments while appealing a negative eligibility determination; because appealing and requesting payments is very common, even those otherwise eligible for Section 301 payments may not receive them.</p>
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<h2>Data and Methods</h2>
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<p>We used information from multiple administrative data sources. Our main source, <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr>'s 2021 Disability Analysis File (<abbr class="spell">DAF</abbr>), includes information on our study population—youths aged <span class="nobr">14–24</span> who received <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> payments at any time from 2010 through 2021. The <abbr class="spell">DAF</abbr> combines (and links) extracts of administrative data files from <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> and other agencies. Our study uses <abbr class="spell">DAF</abbr> data drawn from <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr>'s Supplemental Security Record (the primary system for tracking <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> payments) and Master Earnings File; and from <abbr class="spell">RSA</abbr>'s individual-level Case Service Reports (the <span class="nobr"><abbr class="spell">RSA</abbr>-911</span> file). We also used data from the Department of Education's Child Count and Educational Environments file, known as the <abbr>IDEA</abbr> Section 618 file after its authorizing legislation. We drew information on use of the Section 301 work incentive directly from a part of the Supplemental Security Record that is not available in the <abbr class="spell">DAF</abbr>. Similarly, <abbr class="spell">RSA</abbr> staff provided us with information on <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> availability that is not included in the <span class="nobr"><abbr class="spell">RSA</abbr>-911</span> data in the <abbr class="spell">DAF</abbr>. We used the variables in these data to identify our analytical sample and define most of the outcomes we analyzed.</p>
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<p>We acknowledge several limitations in the data:</p>
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<ul>
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<li>The records from the Master Earnings File include earnings as reported to the Internal Revenue Service, so they exclude informal earnings.</li>
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<li>Although <abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr> established <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> in 2014, the earliest <span class="nobr"><abbr class="spell">RSA</abbr>-911</span> data on <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> use are for 2017, when <abbr class="spell">RSA</abbr> first required state <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> agencies to report them.</li>
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<li>Besides having no <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> information for <span class="nobr">2014–2016,</span> we cannot enumerate every person who used <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> from 2017 onward. Because <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> agencies must offer <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> to youths regardless of their <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> application status, a Social Security number is not required to access the services. Therefore, we cannot determine that young <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients used <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> if they did so before they applied for <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> services. Moreover, even among youths who applied for <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> services then used <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr>,</span> not all <span class="nobr"><abbr class="spell">RSA</abbr>-911</span> records contain identifiers that allow a match to <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> data. For example, between 9 percent and 12 percent of nationwide <span class="nobr"><abbr class="spell">RSA</abbr>-911</span> records from program years 2019, 2020, and 2021 could not be matched to <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> data (Mathematica 2023). Further, record matching may vary by state. Our estimates of <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> engagement therefore represent a lower bound.</li>
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</ul>
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<p>Given the limitations on <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> information in the individual-level <span class="nobr"><abbr class="spell">RSA</abbr>-911</span> and <abbr class="spell">DAF</abbr> data, we devised a way to estimate state-level <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> use. <abbr class="spell">RSA</abbr> staff provided us with the number of students who used <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> in each state and program year from 2017 through 2021. We complemented this state-level information with data from the <abbr>IDEA</abbr> Section 618 file. The latter file provided the total number of students aged <span class="nobr">14–21</span> who had an <abbr class="spell">IEP</abbr> to use special education services each year from 2017 to 2021 (Dragoo 2024). When these data were missing for a state for a particular year, we imputed the missing value using data for that state from the previous year adjusted by the average national percentage change in the number of students in that year. Data were missing for three states in 2017 and for one each in 2018, 2019, and 2020; data for Wisconsin were missing for three of these years. Of note, the <span class="nobr"><abbr class="spell">RSA</abbr>-911</span> and <abbr>IDEA</abbr> Section 618 data are reported by program year, but <abbr class="spell">DAF</abbr> data are reported by calendar year.</p>
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<h3>Sample</h3>
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<p>The study sample is the universe of youths aged 14 to 24 who are eligible to receive <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> payments in December of each year. Because a youth may appear repeatedly across years in the sample, we view the sample as annual cross-sections of <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-eligible youths from 2010 to 2021. The age distribution of the sample remains relatively unchanged over the years, although the total number of <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients aged 14 to 24 in the sample decreased from 929,547 in 2010 to 820,650 in 2021 (Chart 1), reflecting the trend for the <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> program overall.</p>
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<div class="svgChart chart700" id="chart1"> <img src="v84n4p27-chart01.svg" role="img" alt="Chart 1. Stacked bar chart with tabular version below.">
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<div class="table altTable"> <a class="altToggle" href="">Show as table</a>
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<table>
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<caption><span class="tableNumber">Table equivalent for Chart 1. </span><abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients aged <span class="nobr">14–24,</span> by age group, <span class="nobr">2010–2021</span></caption>
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<colgroup span="1" style="width:8em"></colgroup>
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<colgroup span="4" style="width:8em"></colgroup>
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<thead>
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<tr>
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<th rowspan="2" class="stubHeading" scope="colgroup">Year</th>
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<th colspan="4" class="spanner" scope="colgroup">Age group</th>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<th scope="col"><span class="nobr">14–15</span></th>
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<th scope="col"><span class="nobr">16–17</span></th>
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<th scope="col"><span class="nobr">18–21</span></th>
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<th scope="col"><span class="nobr">22–24</span></th>
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</tr>
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</thead>
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<tbody>
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<tr>
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<th class="stub0" scope="row">2010</th>
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<td>164,452</td>
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<td>169,630</td>
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<td>356,257</td>
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<td>238,981</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<th class="stub0" scope="row">2011</th>
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<td>170,277</td>
|
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<td>168,247</td>
|
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<td>358,551</td>
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<td>252,236</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<th class="stub0" scope="row">2012</th>
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<td>179,432</td>
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<td>169,652</td>
|
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<td>354,239</td>
|
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<td>266,056</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<th class="stub0" scope="row">2013</th>
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<td>184,422</td>
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|
<td>172,346</td>
|
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<td>342,440</td>
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<td>275,256</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<th class="stub0" scope="row">2014</th>
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<td>186,665</td>
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<td>175,170</td>
|
|
<td>325,033</td>
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<td>273,996</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2015</th>
|
|
<td>183,595</td>
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<td>173,345</td>
|
|
<td>314,294</td>
|
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<td>263,733</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2016</th>
|
|
<td>171,296</td>
|
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<td>166,345</td>
|
|
<td>309,087</td>
|
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<td>248,585</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2017</th>
|
|
<td>164,368</td>
|
|
<td>161,697</td>
|
|
<td>304,645</td>
|
|
<td>232,584</td>
|
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</tr>
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<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2018</th>
|
|
<td>161,118</td>
|
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<td>156,408</td>
|
|
<td>300,359</td>
|
|
<td>220,340</td>
|
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</tr>
|
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<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2019</th>
|
|
<td>160,456</td>
|
|
<td>152,845</td>
|
|
<td>305,212</td>
|
|
<td>215,582</td>
|
|
</tr>
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<tr>
|
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<th class="stub0" scope="row">2020</th>
|
|
<td>161,327</td>
|
|
<td>152,215</td>
|
|
<td>310,989</td>
|
|
<td>217,351</td>
|
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</tr>
|
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<tr>
|
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<th class="stub0" scope="row">2021</th>
|
|
<td>158,353</td>
|
|
<td>147,252</td>
|
|
<td>299,439</td>
|
|
<td>215,410</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
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</tbody>
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<tfoot>
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<tr>
|
|
<td class="onlyNote" colspan="5">SOURCE: Supplemental Security Record.</td>
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</tr>
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</tfoot>
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</table>
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</div>
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</div>
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<h3>Empirical Strategy</h3>
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<p>We use two individual-level regression models to estimate how the <abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr>, and specifically <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> access, affects our outcomes of interest over time, nationally and across states. We estimate the marginal effects using linear models to avoid making assumptions about the true functional form of our models and the distribution of data. In all estimations, we cluster standard errors at the state level.</p>
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<p>In Model 1, we estimate how outcomes for <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients aged 14 to 24 changed nationally after the <abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr> was enacted in 2014:</p>
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|
<div class="equation">
|
|
<div class="float-right">(1)</div>
|
|
<div class="scrollMath"> <math display='inline'> <mrow> <msub> <mi>Y</mi> <mrow> <mi>i</mi><mi>s</mi><mi>t</mi></mrow> </msub> <mo>=</mo><msub> <mi>α</mi> <mn>1</mn> </msub> <mo>+</mo><msub> <mi>β</mi> <mn>1</mn> </msub><msub> <mi mathvariant="italic">AfterWIOA</mi> <mi>t</mi> </msub> <mo>+</mo><msub> <mi>S</mi> <mi>s</mi> </msub> <mo>+</mo><msub> <msup> <mi>X</mi> <mo>′</mo> </msup> <mi>i</mi> </msub> <mi>γ</mi><mo>+</mo><msub> <mi>ε</mi> <mrow> <mi>i</mi><mi>s</mi><mi>t</mi></mrow> </msub> </mrow> </math> .</div>
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</div>
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<p class="noindent"><i>Y<sub>ist</sub></i> represents each of the six outcomes for individual <i>i</i> living in state <i>s</i> in year <i>t</i>. <i>After<abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr><sub>t</sub></i> is a binary variable equal to zero for 2010 to 2013 and equal to one for 2014 to 2021. <i>S<sub>s</sub></i> represents fixed state effects, and <i>X<sub>i</sub></i> includes individual-level covariates (sex, age as of December 31 of each year, age at last <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> application, and impairment).</p>
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<p>We extend Model 1 by allowing the estimate of <span class="nobr">post-<abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr></span> changes to vary by age group, both for the entire study period and for each year after 2014, to capture any shifting trends, such as increasing <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> use over time, as <abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr> provisions were implemented.</p>
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<p>In Model 2, we allow the access to <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> to vary by state and year. Instead of using a binary variable to capture the pre- and <span class="nobr">post-<abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr></span> periods, we use a state-and-year-specific <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> access ratio. Although we expect that <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> availability began to increase once <abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr> was enacted in 2014, there are no data on <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> access before 2017. Therefore, this model estimates how outcomes for young <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients changed with an increase in <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> access from 2017 through 2021:</p>
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|
<div class="equation">
|
|
<div class="float-right">(2)</div>
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|
<div class="scrollMath"> <math display='inline'> <mrow> <msub> <mi>Y</mi> <mrow> <mi>i</mi><mi>s</mi><mi>t</mi></mrow> </msub> <mo>=</mo><msub> <mi>α</mi> <mn>3</mn> </msub> <mo>+</mo><msub> <mi>β</mi> <mn>1</mn> </msub><msub> <mi mathvariant="italic">PreETSRatio</mi> <mrow> <mi>s</mi><mi>t</mi></mrow> </msub> <mo>+</mo><msub> <mi>Z</mi> <mi>t</mi> </msub> <mo>+</mo><msub> <msup> <mi>X</mi> <mo>′</mo> </msup> <mi>i</mi> </msub> <mi>γ</mi><mo>+</mo><msub> <mi>ε</mi> <mrow> <mi>i</mi><mi>s</mi><mi>t</mi></mrow> </msub> </mrow> </math> ,</div>
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</div>
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<p class="noindent">where <i>Pre<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr>Ratio<sub>st</sub></i> is the number of students using <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> divided by the number of students receiving special education in state <i>s</i> and year <i>t</i>. <i>Z<sub>t</sub></i> represents fixed year effects, which capture variations across time common to all states—for example, improvements in data management systems that reflected a more accurate report of the number of students using <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr>.</span> The other variables follow the Model 1 definitions. We also extend Model 2 to allow estimates to vary by age group.</p>
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<p>To validate the findings, we conduct five sensitivity analyses:</p>
|
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<ul>
|
|
<li>Excluding states with extremely high or low <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> access ratios in 2017 (the <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> access ratio for Iowa was 53 percent, whereas the next highest ratio was 39 percent; the ratios for California, New Jersey, and New York were all below 1 percent),</li>
|
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<li>Excluding the period during the <span class="nobr"><abbr>COVID</abbr>-19</span> pandemic (2020 and 2021) from the sample,</li>
|
|
<li>Adding the state annual unemployment rate—calculated from the monthly rates extracted from the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Local Area Unemployment Statistics—as a control in Models 1 and 2,</li>
|
|
<li>Testing whether the estimates for the states that implemented the <abbr>PROMISE</abbr> demonstration (Arkansas, California, Maryland, New York, Wisconsin, and states in the Achieving Success by Promoting Readiness for Education and Employment [<abbr>ASPIRE</abbr>] consortium—Arizona, Colorado, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Utah) differed from those for all other states,<sup><a href="#mn3" id="mt3">3</a></sup> and</li>
|
|
<li>Using binary indicators of <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> access ratios instead of the continuous <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> access ratio in Model 2.</li>
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|
</ul>
|
|
<h3>Independent Variables</h3>
|
|
<p>Three independent variables reflect <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> availability: an indicator for the enactment of <abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr> in 2014, an indicator for each year from 2014 to 2021, and a state-and-year-specific ratio that we use as a proxy for <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> access. The <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> access ratio captures young <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients' access to and potential use of <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> from 2017 to 2021.</p>
|
|
<p>Chart 2 shows the <span class="nobr">5-year</span> average annual ratio for each state. We need to use this proxy of <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> access because, although we can determine <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> use for many young <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients, we cannot identify the use of <i>any</i> <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> among young <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients who used <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> as potentially eligible students (that is, before they applied for <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> services). The numerator consists of the number of unique students who used <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> in a state and year. In most states, youths must be students aged <span class="nobr">16–21</span> to use these services. The denominator is the number of students aged <span class="nobr">14–21</span> using special education services under the <abbr>IDEA</abbr>—this population is more restrictive than the population in the numerator, as students using <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> may also use educational support services under Section 504 of the Rehabilitation Act or be enrolled in postsecondary education. The <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> access ratio varies by state and year. In addition to analyzing the ratios directly, we use them to split the sample into states with consistently low or high ratios, thus identifying states where students with disabilities had broader or more restricted access. The 15 states in the low group (Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Kansas, Maine, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, Texas, and Washington) had <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> access ratios below the median every year from 2017 to 2021, while the 14 states in the high group (Alabama, Hawaii, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Carolina, Vermont, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wyoming) had ratios above the median for all years.</p>
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<div class="svgChart chart700" id="chart2"> <img src="v84n4p27-chart02.svg" role="img" alt="Chart 2. Bar chart with tabular version below.">
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<div class="table altTable"> <a class="altToggle" href="">Show as table</a>
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<table>
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<caption><span class="tableNumber">Table equivalent for Chart 2. </span>Pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr> access ratios, by state: Annual average, <span class="nobr">2017–2021</span></caption>
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<colgroup span="1" style="width:12em"></colgroup>
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<colgroup span="1" style="width:8em"></colgroup>
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<thead>
|
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<tr>
|
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<th class="stubHeading" scope="col">State</th>
|
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<th scope="col">Ratio</th>
|
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</tr>
|
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</thead>
|
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<tbody>
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<tr>
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<th class="stub0" scope="row">New Jersey</th>
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<td>1.0</td>
|
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</tr>
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<tr>
|
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<th class="stub0" scope="row">Arizona</th>
|
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<td>2.8</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
|
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<th class="stub0" scope="row">Texas</th>
|
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<td>2.8</td>
|
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</tr>
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<tr>
|
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<th class="stub0" scope="row">New York</th>
|
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<td>3.2</td>
|
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</tr>
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<tr>
|
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<th class="stub0" scope="row">Massachusetts</th>
|
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<td>3.8</td>
|
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</tr>
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<tr>
|
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<th class="stub0" scope="row">Oklahoma</th>
|
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<td>3.8</td>
|
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</tr>
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<tr>
|
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<th class="stub0" scope="row">Maine</th>
|
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<td>4.0</td>
|
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</tr>
|
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<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">Washington</th>
|
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<td>4.2</td>
|
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</tr>
|
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<tr>
|
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<th class="stub0" scope="row">Connecticut</th>
|
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<td>4.4</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
|
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<th class="stub0" scope="row">New Mexico</th>
|
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<td>4.6</td>
|
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</tr>
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<tr>
|
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<th class="stub0" scope="row">California</th>
|
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<td>4.8</td>
|
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</tr>
|
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<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">Georgia</th>
|
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<td>4.8</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
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<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">Rhode Island</th>
|
|
<td>4.8</td>
|
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</tr>
|
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<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">Kansas</th>
|
|
<td>5.2</td>
|
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</tr>
|
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<tr>
|
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<th class="stub0" scope="row">Utah</th>
|
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<td>5.8</td>
|
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</tr>
|
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<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">North Carolina</th>
|
|
<td>6.0</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
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<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">Ohio</th>
|
|
<td>6.2</td>
|
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</tr>
|
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<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">Colorado</th>
|
|
<td>6.6</td>
|
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</tr>
|
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<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">Florida</th>
|
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<td>7.2</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
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<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">Maryland</th>
|
|
<td>7.2</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">Minnesota</th>
|
|
<td>7.4</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">Mississippi</th>
|
|
<td>7.6</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">Louisiana</th>
|
|
<td>7.8</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">Virginia</th>
|
|
<td>7.8</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">New Hampshire</th>
|
|
<td>8.4</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
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<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">District of Columbia</th>
|
|
<td>9.2</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
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<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">Nevada</th>
|
|
<td>9.2</td>
|
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</tr>
|
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<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">Arkansas</th>
|
|
<td>9.4</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">Wisconsin</th>
|
|
<td>9.6</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">Alaska</th>
|
|
<td>9.8</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
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<tr>
|
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<th class="stub0" scope="row">Delaware</th>
|
|
<td>9.8</td>
|
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</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">Indiana</th>
|
|
<td>9.8</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">Idaho</th>
|
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<td>10.2</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
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<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">Oregon</th>
|
|
<td>10.4</td>
|
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</tr>
|
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<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">Michigan</th>
|
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<td>11.2</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">Wyoming</th>
|
|
<td>11.2</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">Illinois</th>
|
|
<td>12.4</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
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<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">Pennsylvania</th>
|
|
<td>12.6</td>
|
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</tr>
|
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<tr>
|
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<th class="stub0" scope="row">Hawaii</th>
|
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<td>13.8</td>
|
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</tr>
|
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<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">South Dakota</th>
|
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<td>14.0</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
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<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">Missouri</th>
|
|
<td>14.4</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">Vermont</th>
|
|
<td>15.2</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">West Virginia</th>
|
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<td>16.2</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">Tennessee</th>
|
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<td>16.4</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">Kentucky</th>
|
|
<td>18.2</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">North Dakota</th>
|
|
<td>19.6</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
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<tr>
|
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<th class="stub0" scope="row">Nebraska</th>
|
|
<td>25.2</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">Alabama</th>
|
|
<td>28.2</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">Montana</th>
|
|
<td>28.2</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">South Carolina</th>
|
|
<td>30.4</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
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<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">Iowa</th>
|
|
<td>54.0</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
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</tbody>
|
|
<tfoot>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="firstNote" colspan="2">SOURCE: Authors' calculations based on Department of Education administrative data.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="lastNote" colspan="2">NOTE: Median ratio = 9.2 percent.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tfoot>
|
|
</table>
|
|
</div>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<p>Each model includes four additional covariates that control for individual characteristics: sex, age (as of December 31 in each year), age at last <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> application, and impairment.</p>
|
|
<h3>Outcome Variables</h3>
|
|
<p>We explore six outcomes of interest, grouped into three domains, which could potentially be affected by <abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr>. The first domain consists of two binary variables that indicate engagement with <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr>: whether the youth applied to a <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> agency for services and whether the youth signed an <abbr class="spell">IPE</abbr>. The former captures a person's initial interest in <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> services and the latter indicates that the <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> agency found the applicant eligible for services and developed a plan with the person to identify an employment goal along with the services needed to achieve that goal. The second domain comprises two variables measuring employment outcomes—a binary variable indicating whether the youth reported any earnings in that year and a continuous variable indicating total annual earnings. We adjust earnings to 2021 dollars and cap them at the state's 99<sup>th</sup> percentile. The average 99<sup>th</sup> percentile state earnings level is $12,849.11 and truncating the top 1 percent of earnings in each state eliminates high values that could be a result of problems in the underlying data.<sup><a href="#mn4" id="mt4">4</a></sup> The third domain addresses the use of two <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> work incentives—the <abbr class="spell">SEIE</abbr> and Section 301 payment continuations—both of which are binary variables. We identify all outcomes by calendar year of occurrence.</p>
|
|
<h2>Results</h2>
|
|
<p>Table 1 presents the descriptive statistics on the outcome averages, with detail by age group, for <span class="nobr">2010–2021.</span> In the subsections below, we discuss the results for each outcome domain.</p>
|
|
<div class="table" id="table1">
|
|
<table>
|
|
<caption><span class="tableNumber">Table 1. </span>Indicators of <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> engagement, employment, and work incentive use among <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients aged <span class="nobr">14–24,</span> by age group, <span class="nobr">2010–2021</span></caption>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:20em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="12" style="width:4.5em"></colgroup>
|
|
<thead>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stubHeading" id="c1">Variable</th>
|
|
<th id="c2">2010</th>
|
|
<th id="c3">2011</th>
|
|
<th id="c4">2012</th>
|
|
<th id="c5">2013</th>
|
|
<th id="c6">2014</th>
|
|
<th id="c7">2015</th>
|
|
<th id="c8">2016</th>
|
|
<th id="c9">2017</th>
|
|
<th id="c10">2018</th>
|
|
<th id="c11">2019</th>
|
|
<th id="c12">2020</th>
|
|
<th id="c13">2021</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</thead>
|
|
<tbody>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<th colspan="12" class="panel" id="r1">All ages <span class="nobr">14–24</span></th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r2" headers="r1 c1"><abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> engagement (%)</th>
|
|
<td colspan="12"></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r3" headers="r1 r2 c1">Applied for <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> services</th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r3 c2">0.13</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r3 c3">0.19</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r3 c4">0.27</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r3 c5">0.42</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r3 c6">0.73</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r3 c7">1.37</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r3 c8">2.55</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r3 c9">3.58</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r3 c10">3.69</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r3 c11">3.67</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r3 c12">2.26</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r3 c13">2.51</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r4" headers="r1 r2 c1">Signed an <abbr class="spell">IPE</abbr></th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 c2">0.06</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 c3">0.08</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 c4">0.13</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 c5">0.20</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 c6">0.36</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 c7">0.75</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 c8">1.73</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 c9">3.29</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 c10">3.51</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 c11">3.34</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 c12">2.10</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 c13">1.91</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r5" headers="r1 c1">Employment</th>
|
|
<td colspan="12"></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
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<tr>
|
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<th class="stub1" id="r6" headers="r1 r5 c1">Any earnings (%)</th>
|
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<td headers="r1 r5 r6 c2">16.58</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r5 r6 c3">16.15</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r5 r6 c4">16.50</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r5 r6 c5">17.03</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r5 r6 c6">17.89</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r5 r6 c7">19.14</td>
|
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<td headers="r1 r5 r6 c8">20.08</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r5 r6 c9">19.95</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r5 r6 c10">20.05</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r5 r6 c11">20.30</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r5 r6 c12">17.89</td>
|
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<td headers="r1 r5 r6 c13">20.09</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
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<th class="stub1" id="r7" headers="r1 r5 c1">Mean annual earnings (2021 $)</th>
|
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<td headers="r1 r5 r7 c2">443.23</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r5 r7 c3">428.76</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r5 r7 c4">452.19</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r5 r7 c5">481.29</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r5 r7 c6">528.11</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r5 r7 c7">607.08</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r5 r7 c8">655.70</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r5 r7 c9">660.63</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r5 r7 c10">680.01</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r5 r7 c11">716.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r5 r7 c12">664.11</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r5 r7 c13">847.09</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r8" headers="r1 c1">Work incentive use (%)</th>
|
|
<td colspan="12"></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r9" headers="r1 r8 c1"><abbr class="spell">SEIE</abbr></th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r8 r9 c2">2.15</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r8 r9 c3">1.91</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r8 r9 c4">1.85</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r8 r9 c5">1.78</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r8 r9 c6">1.81</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r8 r9 c7">1.97</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r8 r9 c8">2.21</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r8 r9 c9">2.31</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r8 r9 c10">2.32</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r8 r9 c11">2.29</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r8 r9 c12">1.69</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r8 r9 c13">1.16</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r10" headers="r1 r8 c1">Section 301 continuation</th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r8 r10 c2">0.23</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r8 r10 c3">0.22</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r8 r10 c4">0.18</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r8 r10 c5">0.18</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r8 r10 c6">0.17</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r8 r10 c7">0.19</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r8 r10 c8">0.19</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r8 r10 c9">0.15</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r8 r10 c10">0.13</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r8 r10 c11">0.11</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r8 r10 c12">0.08</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r8 r10 c13">0.06</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<th colspan="12" class="panel" id="r11">Ages <span class="nobr">14–16</span></th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r12" headers="r11 c1"><abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> engagement (%)</th>
|
|
<td colspan="12"></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r13" headers="r11 r12 c1">Applied for <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> services</th>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r12 r13 c2">0.04</td>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r12 r13 c3">0.01</td>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r12 r13 c4">0.01</td>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r12 r13 c5">0.02</td>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r12 r13 c6">0.03</td>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r12 r13 c7">0.06</td>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r12 r13 c8">0.06</td>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r12 r13 c9">0.06</td>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r12 r13 c10">0.06</td>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r12 r13 c11">0.07</td>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r12 r13 c12">0.04</td>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r12 r13 c13">0.05</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r14" headers="r11 r12 c1">Signed an <abbr class="spell">IPE</abbr></th>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r12 r14 c2">0.01</td>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r12 r14 c3">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r12 r14 c4">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r12 r14 c5">0.01</td>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r12 r14 c6">0.01</td>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r12 r14 c7">0.02</td>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r12 r14 c8">0.03</td>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r12 r14 c9">0.03</td>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r12 r14 c10">0.03</td>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r12 r14 c11">0.04</td>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r12 r14 c12">0.03</td>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r12 r14 c13">0.03</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r15" headers="r11 c1">Employment</th>
|
|
<td colspan="12"></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r16" headers="r11 r15 c1">Any earnings (%)</th>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r15 r16 c2">1.90</td>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r15 r16 c3">0.26</td>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r15 r16 c4">0.27</td>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r15 r16 c5">0.28</td>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r15 r16 c6">0.31</td>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r15 r16 c7">0.35</td>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r15 r16 c8">0.38</td>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r15 r16 c9">0.37</td>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r15 r16 c10">0.37</td>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r15 r16 c11">0.38</td>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r15 r16 c12">0.23</td>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r15 r16 c13">0.47</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r17" headers="r11 r15 c1">Mean annual earnings (2021 $)</th>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r15 r17 c2">19.86</td>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r15 r17 c3">13.21</td>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r15 r17 c4">13.39</td>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r15 r17 c5">13.54</td>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r15 r17 c6">15.77</td>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r15 r17 c7">19.12</td>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r15 r17 c8">21.97</td>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r15 r17 c9">23.30</td>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r15 r17 c10">24.15</td>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r15 r17 c11">25.92</td>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r15 r17 c12">20.08</td>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r15 r17 c13">39.98</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r18" headers="r11 c1">Work incentive use (%)</th>
|
|
<td colspan="12"></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r19" headers="r11 r18 c1"><abbr class="spell">SEIE</abbr></th>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r18 r19 c2">0.29</td>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r18 r19 c3">0.24</td>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r18 r19 c4">0.22</td>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r18 r19 c5">0.22</td>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r18 r19 c6">0.23</td>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r18 r19 c7">0.27</td>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r18 r19 c8">0.32</td>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r18 r19 c9">0.32</td>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r18 r19 c10">0.29</td>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r18 r19 c11">0.26</td>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r18 r19 c12">0.14</td>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r18 r19 c13">0.11</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r20" headers="r11 r18 c1">Section 301 continuation</th>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r18 r20 c2">(X)</td>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r18 r20 c3">(X)</td>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r18 r20 c4">(X)</td>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r18 r20 c5">(X)</td>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r18 r20 c6">(X)</td>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r18 r20 c7">(X)</td>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r18 r20 c8">(X)</td>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r18 r20 c9">(X)</td>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r18 r20 c10">(X)</td>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r18 r20 c11">(X)</td>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r18 r20 c12">(X)</td>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r18 r20 c13">(X)</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<th colspan="12" class="panel" id="r21">Ages <span class="nobr">17–18</span></th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r22" headers="r21 c1"><abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> engagement (%)</th>
|
|
<td colspan="12"></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r23" headers="r21 r22 c1">Applied for <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> services</th>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r22 r23 c2">0.13</td>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r22 r23 c3">0.21</td>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r22 r23 c4">0.31</td>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r22 r23 c5">0.47</td>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r22 r23 c6">0.88</td>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r22 r23 c7">1.52</td>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r22 r23 c8">2.39</td>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r22 r23 c9">2.76</td>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r22 r23 c10">2.61</td>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r22 r23 c11">2.63</td>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r22 r23 c12">1.44</td>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r22 r23 c13">1.59</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r24" headers="r21 r22 c1">Signed an <abbr class="spell">IPE</abbr></th>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r22 r24 c2">0.04</td>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r22 r24 c3">0.05</td>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r22 r24 c4">0.07</td>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r22 r24 c5">0.11</td>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r22 r24 c6">0.24</td>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r22 r24 c7">0.53</td>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r22 r24 c8">1.12</td>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r22 r24 c9">1.63</td>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r22 r24 c10">1.59</td>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r22 r24 c11">1.70</td>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r22 r24 c12">1.17</td>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r22 r24 c13">1.02</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r25" headers="r21 c1">Employment</th>
|
|
<td colspan="12"></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r26" headers="r21 r25 c1">Any earnings (%)</th>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r25 r26 c2">9.50</td>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r25 r26 c3">8.41</td>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r25 r26 c4">8.87</td>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r25 r26 c5">9.43</td>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r25 r26 c6">10.57</td>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r25 r26 c7">12.33</td>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r25 r26 c8">13.44</td>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r25 r26 c9">13.71</td>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r25 r26 c10">14.52</td>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r25 r26 c11">14.97</td>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r25 r26 c12">12.10</td>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r25 r26 c13">16.73</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r27" headers="r21 r25 c1">Mean annual earnings (2021 $)</th>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r25 r27 c2">135.38</td>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r25 r27 c3">118.79</td>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r25 r27 c4">127.92</td>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r25 r27 c5">142.05</td>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r25 r27 c6">170.58</td>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r25 r27 c7">220.03</td>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r25 r27 c8">260.20</td>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r25 r27 c9">267.78</td>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r25 r27 c10">297.87</td>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r25 r27 c11">325.39</td>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r25 r27 c12">302.03</td>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r25 r27 c13">452.42</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r28" headers="r21 c1">Work incentive use (%)</th>
|
|
<td colspan="12"></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r29" headers="r21 r28 c1"><abbr class="spell">SEIE</abbr></th>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r28 r29 c2">2.34</td>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r28 r29 c3">2.02</td>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r28 r29 c4">2.07</td>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r28 r29 c5">2.16</td>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r28 r29 c6">2.33</td>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r28 r29 c7">2.68</td>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r28 r29 c8">2.99</td>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r28 r29 c9">3.09</td>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r28 r29 c10">3.08</td>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r28 r29 c11">2.96</td>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r28 r29 c12">1.89</td>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r28 r29 c13">0.95</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r30" headers="r21 r28 c1">Section 301 continuation</th>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r28 r30 c2">(X)</td>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r28 r30 c3">(X)</td>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r28 r30 c4">(X)</td>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r28 r30 c5">(X)</td>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r28 r30 c6">(X)</td>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r28 r30 c7">(X)</td>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r28 r30 c8">(X)</td>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r28 r30 c9">(X)</td>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r28 r30 c10">(X)</td>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r28 r30 c11">(X)</td>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r28 r30 c12">(X)</td>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r28 r30 c13">(X)</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<th colspan="12" class="panel" id="r31">Ages <span class="nobr">19–21</span></th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r32" headers="r31 c1"><abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> engagement (%)</th>
|
|
<td colspan="12"></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r33" headers="r31 r32 c1">Applied for <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> services</th>
|
|
<td headers="r31 r32 r33 c2">0.21</td>
|
|
<td headers="r31 r32 r33 c3">0.31</td>
|
|
<td headers="r31 r32 r33 c4">0.45</td>
|
|
<td headers="r31 r32 r33 c5">0.70</td>
|
|
<td headers="r31 r32 r33 c6">1.23</td>
|
|
<td headers="r31 r32 r33 c7">2.36</td>
|
|
<td headers="r31 r32 r33 c8">4.45</td>
|
|
<td headers="r31 r32 r33 c9">6.09</td>
|
|
<td headers="r31 r32 r33 c10">6.28</td>
|
|
<td headers="r31 r32 r33 c11">6.12</td>
|
|
<td headers="r31 r32 r33 c12">3.75</td>
|
|
<td headers="r31 r32 r33 c13">4.18</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r34" headers="r31 r32 c1">Signed an <abbr class="spell">IPE</abbr></th>
|
|
<td headers="r31 r32 r34 c2">0.10</td>
|
|
<td headers="r31 r32 r34 c3">0.15</td>
|
|
<td headers="r31 r32 r34 c4">0.23</td>
|
|
<td headers="r31 r32 r34 c5">0.37</td>
|
|
<td headers="r31 r32 r34 c6">0.67</td>
|
|
<td headers="r31 r32 r34 c7">1.38</td>
|
|
<td headers="r31 r32 r34 c8">3.09</td>
|
|
<td headers="r31 r32 r34 c9">5.72</td>
|
|
<td headers="r31 r32 r34 c10">6.09</td>
|
|
<td headers="r31 r32 r34 c11">5.78</td>
|
|
<td headers="r31 r32 r34 c12">3.67</td>
|
|
<td headers="r31 r32 r34 c13">3.26</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r35" headers="r31 c1">Employment</th>
|
|
<td colspan="12"></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r36" headers="r31 r35 c1">Any earnings (%)</th>
|
|
<td headers="r31 r35 r36 c2">22.67</td>
|
|
<td headers="r31 r35 r36 c3">22.13</td>
|
|
<td headers="r31 r35 r36 c4">22.56</td>
|
|
<td headers="r31 r35 r36 c5">23.39</td>
|
|
<td headers="r31 r35 r36 c6">24.58</td>
|
|
<td headers="r31 r35 r36 c7">26.31</td>
|
|
<td headers="r31 r35 r36 c8">27.39</td>
|
|
<td headers="r31 r35 r36 c9">27.25</td>
|
|
<td headers="r31 r35 r36 c10">27.51</td>
|
|
<td headers="r31 r35 r36 c11">27.95</td>
|
|
<td headers="r31 r35 r36 c12">24.93</td>
|
|
<td headers="r31 r35 r36 c13">27.85</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r37" headers="r31 r35 c1">Mean annual earnings (2021 $)</th>
|
|
<td headers="r31 r35 r37 c2">573.46</td>
|
|
<td headers="r31 r35 r37 c3">540.09</td>
|
|
<td headers="r31 r35 r37 c4">564.48</td>
|
|
<td headers="r31 r35 r37 c5">597.07</td>
|
|
<td headers="r31 r35 r37 c6">656.81</td>
|
|
<td headers="r31 r35 r37 c7">758.26</td>
|
|
<td headers="r31 r35 r37 c8">828.57</td>
|
|
<td headers="r31 r35 r37 c9">849.84</td>
|
|
<td headers="r31 r35 r37 c10">889.37</td>
|
|
<td headers="r31 r35 r37 c11">946.65</td>
|
|
<td headers="r31 r35 r37 c12">927.19</td>
|
|
<td headers="r31 r35 r37 c13">1,192.51</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r38" headers="r31 c1">Work incentive use (%)</th>
|
|
<td colspan="12"></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r39" headers="r31 r38 c1"><abbr class="spell">SEIE</abbr></th>
|
|
<td headers="r31 r38 r39 c2">3.94</td>
|
|
<td headers="r31 r38 r39 c3">3.59</td>
|
|
<td headers="r31 r38 r39 c4">3.50</td>
|
|
<td headers="r31 r38 r39 c5">3.39</td>
|
|
<td headers="r31 r38 r39 c6">3.46</td>
|
|
<td headers="r31 r38 r39 c7">3.73</td>
|
|
<td headers="r31 r38 r39 c8">4.11</td>
|
|
<td headers="r31 r38 r39 c9">4.22</td>
|
|
<td headers="r31 r38 r39 c10">4.26</td>
|
|
<td headers="r31 r38 r39 c11">4.16</td>
|
|
<td headers="r31 r38 r39 c12">3.14</td>
|
|
<td headers="r31 r38 r39 c13">2.33</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r40" headers="r31 r38 c1">Section 301 continuation</th>
|
|
<td headers="r31 r38 r40 c2">0.55</td>
|
|
<td headers="r31 r38 r40 c3">0.51</td>
|
|
<td headers="r31 r38 r40 c4">0.41</td>
|
|
<td headers="r31 r38 r40 c5">0.44</td>
|
|
<td headers="r31 r38 r40 c6">0.45</td>
|
|
<td headers="r31 r38 r40 c7">0.54</td>
|
|
<td headers="r31 r38 r40 c8">0.52</td>
|
|
<td headers="r31 r38 r40 c9">0.41</td>
|
|
<td headers="r31 r38 r40 c10">0.34</td>
|
|
<td headers="r31 r38 r40 c11">0.28</td>
|
|
<td headers="r31 r38 r40 c12">0.18</td>
|
|
<td headers="r31 r38 r40 c13">0.14</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<th colspan="12" class="panel" id="r41">Ages <span class="nobr">22–24</span></th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r42" headers="r41 c1"><abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> engagement (%)</th>
|
|
<td colspan="12"></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r43" headers="r41 r42 c1">Applied for <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> services</th>
|
|
<td headers="r41 r42 r43 c2">0.04</td>
|
|
<td headers="r41 r42 r43 c3">0.07</td>
|
|
<td headers="r41 r42 r43 c4">0.12</td>
|
|
<td headers="r41 r42 r43 c5">0.20</td>
|
|
<td headers="r41 r42 r43 c6">0.36</td>
|
|
<td headers="r41 r42 r43 c7">0.70</td>
|
|
<td headers="r41 r42 r43 c8">1.49</td>
|
|
<td headers="r41 r42 r43 c9">2.43</td>
|
|
<td headers="r41 r42 r43 c10">2.51</td>
|
|
<td headers="r41 r42 r43 c11">2.40</td>
|
|
<td headers="r41 r42 r43 c12">1.54</td>
|
|
<td headers="r41 r42 r43 c13">1.79</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r44" headers="r41 r42 c1">Signed an <abbr class="spell">IPE</abbr></th>
|
|
<td headers="r41 r42 r44 c2">0.02</td>
|
|
<td headers="r41 r42 r44 c3">0.03</td>
|
|
<td headers="r41 r42 r44 c4">0.07</td>
|
|
<td headers="r41 r42 r44 c5">0.11</td>
|
|
<td headers="r41 r42 r44 c6">0.23</td>
|
|
<td headers="r41 r42 r44 c7">0.51</td>
|
|
<td headers="r41 r42 r44 c8">1.22</td>
|
|
<td headers="r41 r42 r44 c9">2.64</td>
|
|
<td headers="r41 r42 r44 c10">2.79</td>
|
|
<td headers="r41 r42 r44 c11">2.39</td>
|
|
<td headers="r41 r42 r44 c12">1.37</td>
|
|
<td headers="r41 r42 r44 c13">1.40</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r45" headers="r41 c1">Employment</th>
|
|
<td colspan="12"></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r46" headers="r41 r45 c1">Any earnings (%)</th>
|
|
<td headers="r41 r45 r46 c2">15.19</td>
|
|
<td headers="r41 r45 r46 c3">16.02</td>
|
|
<td headers="r41 r45 r46 c4">17.62</td>
|
|
<td headers="r41 r45 r46 c5">19.51</td>
|
|
<td headers="r41 r45 r46 c6">21.67</td>
|
|
<td headers="r41 r45 r46 c7">22.79</td>
|
|
<td headers="r41 r45 r46 c8">22.43</td>
|
|
<td headers="r41 r45 r46 c9">20.97</td>
|
|
<td headers="r41 r45 r46 c10">19.85</td>
|
|
<td headers="r41 r45 r46 c11">19.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r41 r45 r46 c12">16.97</td>
|
|
<td headers="r41 r45 r46 c13">17.68</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r47" headers="r41 r45 c1">Mean annual earnings (2021 $)</th>
|
|
<td headers="r41 r45 r47 c2">758.94</td>
|
|
<td headers="r41 r45 r47 c3">757.80</td>
|
|
<td headers="r41 r45 r47 c4">805.37</td>
|
|
<td headers="r41 r45 r47 c5">863.06</td>
|
|
<td headers="r41 r45 r47 c6">953.05</td>
|
|
<td headers="r41 r45 r47 c7">1,090.61</td>
|
|
<td headers="r41 r45 r47 c8">1,142.11</td>
|
|
<td headers="r41 r45 r47 c9">1,136.32</td>
|
|
<td headers="r41 r45 r47 c10">1,145.46</td>
|
|
<td headers="r41 r45 r47 c11">1,180.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r41 r45 r47 c12">1,019.30</td>
|
|
<td headers="r41 r45 r47 c13">1,230.03</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r48" headers="r41 c1">Work incentive use (%)</th>
|
|
<td colspan="12"></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r49" headers="r41 r48 c1"><abbr class="spell">SEIE</abbr></th>
|
|
<td headers="r41 r48 r49 c2">0.63</td>
|
|
<td headers="r41 r48 r49 c3">0.59</td>
|
|
<td headers="r41 r48 r49 c4">0.60</td>
|
|
<td headers="r41 r48 r49 c5">0.57</td>
|
|
<td headers="r41 r48 r49 c6">0.58</td>
|
|
<td headers="r41 r48 r49 c7">0.57</td>
|
|
<td headers="r41 r48 r49 c8">0.62</td>
|
|
<td headers="r41 r48 r49 c9">0.66</td>
|
|
<td headers="r41 r48 r49 c10">0.64</td>
|
|
<td headers="r41 r48 r49 c11">0.67</td>
|
|
<td headers="r41 r48 r49 c12">0.63</td>
|
|
<td headers="r41 r48 r49 c13">0.47</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r50" headers="r41 r48 c1">Section 301 continuation</th>
|
|
<td headers="r41 r48 r50 c2">0.04</td>
|
|
<td headers="r41 r48 r50 c3">0.06</td>
|
|
<td headers="r41 r48 r50 c4">0.07</td>
|
|
<td headers="r41 r48 r50 c5">0.06</td>
|
|
<td headers="r41 r48 r50 c6">0.04</td>
|
|
<td headers="r41 r48 r50 c7">0.03</td>
|
|
<td headers="r41 r48 r50 c8">0.03</td>
|
|
<td headers="r41 r48 r50 c9">0.02</td>
|
|
<td headers="r41 r48 r50 c10">0.02</td>
|
|
<td headers="r41 r48 r50 c11">0.01</td>
|
|
<td headers="r41 r48 r50 c12">0.02</td>
|
|
<td headers="r41 r48 r50 c13">0.02</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tbody>
|
|
<tfoot>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="firstNote" colspan="13">SOURCE: Authors' calculations based on <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> and Department of Education administrative data.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="lastNote" colspan="13">NOTE: (X) = omitted because of small sample size.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tfoot>
|
|
</table>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<h3><abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> Engagement</h3>
|
|
<p>The percentage of young <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients engaging in <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> services increased rapidly after <abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr> was enacted in 2014 (Chart 3). The path of <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> engagement across the years is similar for all ages, but those aged <span class="nobr">18–21</span> and <span class="nobr">22–24</span> were most likely to apply for <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> services and to sign <abbr class="spell">IPE</abbr>s.</p>
|
|
<div class="svgChart chart700" id="chart3"> <img src="v84n4p27-chart03.svg" role="img" alt="Chart 3. Two panels of line charts with consolidated tabular version below.">
|
|
<div class="table altTable"> <a class="altToggle" href="">Show as table</a>
|
|
<table>
|
|
<caption><span class="tableNumber">Table equivalent for Chart 3. </span><abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients aged <span class="nobr">14–24</span> engaging with <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> agencies, by age group, <span class="nobr">2010–2021</span> (in percent)</caption>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:8em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:8em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="4" style="width:8em"></colgroup>
|
|
<thead>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th rowspan="2" class="stubHeading" scope="colgroup">Year</th>
|
|
<th rowspan="2" scope="colgroup">All</th>
|
|
<th colspan="4" class="spanner" scope="colgroup">Age group</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th scope="col"><span class="nobr">14–15</span></th>
|
|
<th scope="col"><span class="nobr">16–17</span></th>
|
|
<th scope="col"><span class="nobr">18–21</span></th>
|
|
<th scope="col"><span class="nobr">22–24</span></th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</thead>
|
|
<tbody>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<th colspan="5" class="panel" scope="rowgroup">Panel A: Applied for <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> services</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2010</th>
|
|
<td>0.13</td>
|
|
<td>0.04</td>
|
|
<td>0.13</td>
|
|
<td>0.21</td>
|
|
<td>0.06</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2011</th>
|
|
<td>0.19</td>
|
|
<td>0.04</td>
|
|
<td>0.21</td>
|
|
<td>0.31</td>
|
|
<td>0.10</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2012</th>
|
|
<td>0.27</td>
|
|
<td>0.06</td>
|
|
<td>0.31</td>
|
|
<td>0.45</td>
|
|
<td>0.16</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2013</th>
|
|
<td>0.42</td>
|
|
<td>0.09</td>
|
|
<td>0.47</td>
|
|
<td>0.71</td>
|
|
<td>0.25</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2014</th>
|
|
<td>0.73</td>
|
|
<td>0.16</td>
|
|
<td>0.88</td>
|
|
<td>1.23</td>
|
|
<td>0.43</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2015</th>
|
|
<td>1.37</td>
|
|
<td>0.29</td>
|
|
<td>1.52</td>
|
|
<td>2.36</td>
|
|
<td>0.83</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2016</th>
|
|
<td>2.55</td>
|
|
<td>0.31</td>
|
|
<td>2.39</td>
|
|
<td>4.45</td>
|
|
<td>1.86</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2017</th>
|
|
<td>3.58</td>
|
|
<td>0.30</td>
|
|
<td>2.76</td>
|
|
<td>6.09</td>
|
|
<td>3.18</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2018</th>
|
|
<td>3.69</td>
|
|
<td>0.30</td>
|
|
<td>2.61</td>
|
|
<td>6.28</td>
|
|
<td>3.42</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2019</th>
|
|
<td>3.67</td>
|
|
<td>0.36</td>
|
|
<td>2.62</td>
|
|
<td>6.12</td>
|
|
<td>3.40</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2020</th>
|
|
<td>2.26</td>
|
|
<td>0.21</td>
|
|
<td>1.44</td>
|
|
<td>3.75</td>
|
|
<td>2.20</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2021</th>
|
|
<td>2.51</td>
|
|
<td>0.24</td>
|
|
<td>1.59</td>
|
|
<td>4.18</td>
|
|
<td>2.49</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<th colspan="5" class="panel" scope="rowgroup">Panel B: Signed an <abbr class="spell">IPE</abbr></th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2010</th>
|
|
<td>0.05</td>
|
|
<td>0.01</td>
|
|
<td>0.04</td>
|
|
<td>0.10</td>
|
|
<td>0.03</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2011</th>
|
|
<td>0.08</td>
|
|
<td>0.01</td>
|
|
<td>0.05</td>
|
|
<td>0.15</td>
|
|
<td>0.04</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2012</th>
|
|
<td>0.13</td>
|
|
<td>0.02</td>
|
|
<td>0.07</td>
|
|
<td>0.23</td>
|
|
<td>0.09</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2013</th>
|
|
<td>0.20</td>
|
|
<td>0.03</td>
|
|
<td>0.11</td>
|
|
<td>0.38</td>
|
|
<td>0.14</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2014</th>
|
|
<td>0.36</td>
|
|
<td>0.04</td>
|
|
<td>0.24</td>
|
|
<td>0.67</td>
|
|
<td>0.27</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2015</th>
|
|
<td>0.75</td>
|
|
<td>0.09</td>
|
|
<td>0.53</td>
|
|
<td>1.38</td>
|
|
<td>0.61</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2016</th>
|
|
<td>1.73</td>
|
|
<td>0.17</td>
|
|
<td>1.12</td>
|
|
<td>3.09</td>
|
|
<td>1.51</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2017</th>
|
|
<td>3.29</td>
|
|
<td>0.16</td>
|
|
<td>1.63</td>
|
|
<td>5.72</td>
|
|
<td>3.46</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2018</th>
|
|
<td>3.51</td>
|
|
<td>0.16</td>
|
|
<td>1.59</td>
|
|
<td>6.08</td>
|
|
<td>3.81</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2019</th>
|
|
<td>3.34</td>
|
|
<td>0.18</td>
|
|
<td>1.70</td>
|
|
<td>5.79</td>
|
|
<td>3.38</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2020</th>
|
|
<td>2.10</td>
|
|
<td>0.14</td>
|
|
<td>1.17</td>
|
|
<td>3.67</td>
|
|
<td>1.96</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2021</th>
|
|
<td>1.91</td>
|
|
<td>0.15</td>
|
|
<td>1.02</td>
|
|
<td>3.26</td>
|
|
<td>1.94</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tbody>
|
|
<tfoot>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="onlyNote" colspan="6">SOURCE: Authors' calculations based on <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> and Department of Education administrative data.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tfoot>
|
|
</table>
|
|
</div>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<p>Table 2 shows the results of Model 1, estimating <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> engagement before and after <abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr>, and confirms the patterns observed in the descriptive statistics (Table 1). Model 1 estimates the differences in <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> service application rates and signed <abbr class="spell">IPE</abbr> rates before and after 2014, adjusting for individual characteristics and fixed state effects. <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> engagement increased after the <abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr> was enacted. Among all <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients aged <span class="nobr">14–24,</span> 2.79 percent applied for <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> services during or after 2014, more than eight times higher than the rate (0.34 percent) for the years before <abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr>. The <span class="nobr">post-<abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr></span> increase in signed <abbr class="spell">IPE</abbr> rates was proportionally greater still, from 0.15 percent in <span class="nobr">2010–2013</span> to 2.36 percent in <span class="nobr">2014–2021.</span></p>
|
|
<div class="table" id="table2">
|
|
<table>
|
|
<caption><span class="tableNumber">Table 2. </span>Regression results for <abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr> effects on two measures of <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> engagement, by age group, <span class="nobr">2010–2021</span></caption>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:8em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="2" style="width:8em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:8em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:8em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:8em" class="shaded"></colgroup>
|
|
<thead>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th rowspan="2" class="stubHeading" scope="colgroup">Age group</th>
|
|
<th colspan="2" class="spanner" scope="colgroup">Mean percentage—</th>
|
|
<th rowspan="2" scope="colgroup">Difference</th>
|
|
<th rowspan="2" scope="colgroup">Standard error</th>
|
|
<th rowspan="2" scope="colgroup"><span class="nobr"><i>p</i>-value</span></th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th scope="col">Pre-<abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr> <span class="nobr">(2010–2013)</span></th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Post-<abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr> <span class="nobr">(2014–2021)</span></th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</thead>
|
|
<tbody>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<th colspan="5" class="panel" scope="rowgroup">Applied for <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> services</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">All ages <span class="nobr">14–24</span></th>
|
|
<td>0.34</td>
|
|
<td>2.79</td>
|
|
<td>2.45</td>
|
|
<td>0.19</td>
|
|
<td>0.00</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><span class="nobr">14–15</span></th>
|
|
<td>0.26</td>
|
|
<td>0.48</td>
|
|
<td>0.22</td>
|
|
<td>0.05</td>
|
|
<td>0.00</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><span class="nobr">16–17</span></th>
|
|
<td>0.55</td>
|
|
<td>2.30</td>
|
|
<td>1.75</td>
|
|
<td>0.24</td>
|
|
<td>0.00</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><span class="nobr">18–21</span></th>
|
|
<td>0.50</td>
|
|
<td>4.65</td>
|
|
<td>4.15</td>
|
|
<td>0.32</td>
|
|
<td>0.00</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><span class="nobr">22–24</span></th>
|
|
<td>0.09</td>
|
|
<td>2.27</td>
|
|
<td>2.18</td>
|
|
<td>0.15</td>
|
|
<td>0.00</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<th colspan="5" class="panel" scope="rowgroup">Signed an <abbr class="spell">IPE</abbr></th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">All ages <span class="nobr">14–24</span></th>
|
|
<td>0.15</td>
|
|
<td>2.36</td>
|
|
<td>2.21</td>
|
|
<td>0.18</td>
|
|
<td>0.00</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><span class="nobr">14–15</span></th>
|
|
<td>0.19</td>
|
|
<td>0.34</td>
|
|
<td>0.15</td>
|
|
<td>0.03</td>
|
|
<td>0.00</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><span class="nobr">16–17</span></th>
|
|
<td>0.24</td>
|
|
<td>1.41</td>
|
|
<td>1.17</td>
|
|
<td>0.18</td>
|
|
<td>0.00</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><span class="nobr">18–21</span></th>
|
|
<td>0.23</td>
|
|
<td>4.05</td>
|
|
<td>3.82</td>
|
|
<td>0.31</td>
|
|
<td>0.00</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><span class="nobr">22–24</span></th>
|
|
<td>0.01</td>
|
|
<td>2.18</td>
|
|
<td>2.17</td>
|
|
<td>0.17</td>
|
|
<td>0.00</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tbody>
|
|
<tfoot>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="firstNote" colspan="6">SOURCE: Authors' calculations based on <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> and Department of Education administrative data.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="lastNote" colspan="6">NOTES: Results are for 10 separate regressions. All values are regression-adjusted.
|
|
<div class="newNote">All models control for fixed state effects and individual characteristics.</div>
|
|
<div class="newNote">Standard errors are clustered at the state level.</div>
|
|
<div class="newNote">Observations = 10,811,541.</div>
|
|
</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tfoot>
|
|
</table>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<p>Allowing the estimates to vary by age reveals that the increase in <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> applications and signed <abbr class="spell">IPE</abbr>s was largest for youths aged <span class="nobr">18–21,</span> followed in rank order by those aged <span class="nobr">22–24,</span> <span class="nobr">16–17,</span> and <span class="nobr">14–15</span> (Table 2). Although the population that applied for <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> services and signed an <abbr class="spell">IPE</abbr> in each year is not necessarily the same, the estimates in Table 2 suggest that youths aged 18 or older experienced a larger <span class="nobr">post-<abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr></span> increase in the likelihood of applying for <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> services and signing an <abbr class="spell">IPE</abbr> than youths in other age groups.</p>
|
|
<p>Letting the estimates vary by age for each year <span class="nobr">2014–2021</span> shows that the regression-adjusted differences in <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> application rates increased for all age groups relative to the <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr></span> mean in each year from 2014 through 2018 (Chart 4).<sup><a href="#mn5" id="mt5">5</a></sup> The increase in <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> application rates was sharpest for ages <span class="nobr">18–21,</span> followed by the <span class="nobr">22–24</span> and <span class="nobr">16–17</span> age groups; the rate increased slightly over this period for the youngest age group <span class="nobr">(14–15).</span> For example, with all else equal, an <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipient aged <span class="nobr">18–21</span> in 2019 was far more likely to apply for <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> services than an <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipient aged <span class="nobr">18–21</span> before 2014 (6.03 percent compared with 0.34 percent). Although changes in other factors may have affected the likelihood of applying for <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> services, the increase in 2019 is potentially due to a combination of (1) 5 years of experience for <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> agencies in implementing <abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr> provisions, offering <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr>,</span> and adjusting their service models toward youths with disabilities and (2) 5 years of a young person's potential access to <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> and other changes related to <abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr>. We observe similar patterns for the likelihood of signing an <abbr class="spell">IPE</abbr>.</p>
|
|
<div class="svgChart chart700" id="chart4"> <img src="v84n4p27-chart04.svg" role="img" alt="Chart 4. Six panels of line charts with consolidated tabular version below.">
|
|
<div class="table altTable"> <a class="altToggle" href="">Show as table</a>
|
|
<table>
|
|
<caption><span class="tableNumber">Table equivalent for Chart 4. </span>Regression-adjusted mean employment-related indicators, by age group: <span class="nobr">Pre-<abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr></span> (annual average <span class="nobr">2010–2013)</span> and <span class="nobr">post-<abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr></span> (annually <span class="nobr">2014–2021)</span></caption>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:12em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="9" style="width:8em"></colgroup>
|
|
<thead>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stubHeading" id="c1">Outcome and age group</th>
|
|
<th id="c2"><span class="nobr">Pre-<abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr></span> <span class="nobr">(2010–2013)</span></th>
|
|
<th id="c3">2014</th>
|
|
<th id="c4">2015</th>
|
|
<th id="c5">2016</th>
|
|
<th id="c6">2017</th>
|
|
<th id="c7">2018</th>
|
|
<th id="c8">2019</th>
|
|
<th id="c9">2020</th>
|
|
<th id="c10">2021</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</thead>
|
|
<tbody>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<th colspan="9" class="panel" id="r1"><abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> engagement</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r2" headers="r1 c1">Applied for <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> services</th>
|
|
<td colspan="9"></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r3" headers="r1 r2 c1"><span class="nobr">14–15</span></th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r3 c2">0.233</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r3 c3">0.355*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r3 c4">0.482*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r3 c5">0.501*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r3 c6">0.498*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r3 c7">0.502*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r3 c8">0.562*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r3 c9">0.418*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r3 c10">0.446*</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r4" headers="r1 r2 c1"><span class="nobr">16–17</span></th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 c2">0.422</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 c3">1.045*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 c4">1.683*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 c5">2.554*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 c6">2.922*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 c7">2.779*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 c8">2.807*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 c9">1.632*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 c10">1.784*</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r5" headers="r1 r2 c1"><span class="nobr">18–21</span></th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r5 c2">0.343</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r5 c3">1.152*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r5 c4">2.287*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r5 c5">4.369*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r5 c6">6.009*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r5 c7">6.188*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r5 c8">6.026*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r5 c9">3.683*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r5 c10">4.118*</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r6" headers="r1 r2 c1"><span class="nobr">22–24</span></th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r6 c2">0.025</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r6 c3">0.300*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r6 c4">0.693*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r6 c5">1.709*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r6 c6">3.024*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r6 c7">3.261*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r6 c8">3.224*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r6 c9">2.027*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r6 c10">2.309*</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r7" headers="r1 c1">Signed an <abbr class="spell">IPE</abbr></th>
|
|
<td colspan="9"></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r8" headers="r1 r7 c1"><span class="nobr">14–15</span></th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r8 c2">0.179</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r8 c3">0.226*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r8 c4">0.279*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r8 c5">0.360*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r8 c6">0.362*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r8 c7">0.364*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r8 c8">0.392*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r8 c9">0.352*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r8 c10">0.363*</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r9" headers="r1 r7 c1"><span class="nobr">16–17</span></th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r9 c2">0.192</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r9 c3">0.399*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r9 c4">0.692*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r9 c5">1.284*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r9 c6">1.798*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r9 c7">1.769*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r9 c8">1.884*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r9 c9">1.364*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r9 c10">1.212*</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r10" headers="r1 r7 c1"><span class="nobr">18–21</span></th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r10 c2">0.136</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r10 c3">0.599*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r10 c4">1.308*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r10 c5">3.014*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r10 c6">5.647*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r10 c7">6.005*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r10 c8">5.704*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r10 c9">3.605*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r10 c10">3.210*</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r11" headers="r1 r7 c1"><span class="nobr">22–24</span></th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r11 c2">-0.046</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r11 c3">0.145*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r11 c4">0.479*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r11 c5">1.371*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r11 c6">3.309*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r11 c7">3.652*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r11 c8">3.220*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r11 c9">1.798*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r11 c10">1.772*</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<th colspan="9" class="panel" id="r12">Employment</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r13" headers="r12 c1">Any earnings</th>
|
|
<td colspan="9"></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r14" headers="r12 r13 c1"><span class="nobr">14–15</span></th>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r14 c2">0.837</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r14 c3">1.076*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r14 c4">1.397*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r14 c5">1.723*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r14 c6">1.722*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r14 c7">1.748*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r14 c8">1.816*</td>
|
|
<td class="align1asterisk" headers="r12 r13 r14 c9">1.115</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r14 c10">2.435*</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r15" headers="r12 r13 c1"><span class="nobr">16–17</span></th>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r15 c2">8.182</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r15 c3">9.886*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r15 c4">11.761*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r15 c5">13.058*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r15 c6">13.424*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r15 c7">14.318*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r15 c8">14.777*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r15 c9">11.875*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r15 c10">16.604*</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r16" headers="r12 r13 c1"><span class="nobr">18–21</span></th>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r16 c2">22.549</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r16 c3">24.714*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r16 c4">26.569*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r16 c5">27.769*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r16 c6">27.756*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r16 c7">28.146*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r16 c8">28.617*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r16 c9">25.532*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r16 c10">28.498*</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r17" headers="r12 r13 c1"><span class="nobr">22–24</span></th>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r17 c2">23.171</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r17 c3">25.773*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r17 c4">27.358*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r17 c5">28.268*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r17 c6">28.005*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r17 c7">27.759*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r17 c8">27.720*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r17 c9">25.144*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r17 c10">25.511*</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r18" headers="r12 c1">Mean annual earnings (2021 dollars)</th>
|
|
<td colspan="9"></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r19" headers="r12 r18 c1"><span class="nobr">14–15</span></th>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r19 c2">-39.745</td>
|
|
<td class="align1asterisk" headers="r12 r18 r19 c3">-39.169</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r19 c4">-32.374*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r19 c5">-25.822*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r19 c6">-24.573*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r19 c7">-24.879*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r19 c8">-22.098*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r19 c9">-26.767*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r19 c10">-5.984*</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r20" headers="r12 r18 c1"><span class="nobr">16–17</span></th>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r20 c2">80.235</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r20 c3">117.328*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r20 c4">168.699*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r20 c5">215.108*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r20 c6">225.683*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r20 c7">256.114*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r20 c8">281.739*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r20 c9">254.895*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r20 c10">407.184*</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r21" headers="r12 r18 c1"><span class="nobr">18–21</span></th>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r21 c2">580.187</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r21 c3">674.679*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r21 c4">778.759*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r21 c5">851.957*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r21 c6">877.125*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r21 c7">920.957*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r21 c8">978.806*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r21 c9">952.640*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r21 c10">1,216.685*</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r22" headers="r12 r18 c1"><span class="nobr">22–24</span></th>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r22 c2">825.336</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r22 c3">985.564*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r22 c4">1,128.121*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r22 c5">1,185.860*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r22 c6">1,186.090*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r22 c7">1,201.075*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r22 c8">1,238.923*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r22 c9">1,077.674*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r22 c10">1,290.060*</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<th colspan="9" class="panel" id="r23">Work incentive use</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r24" headers="r23 c1"><abbr class="spell">SEIE</abbr></th>
|
|
<td colspan="9"></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r25" headers="r23 r24 c1"><span class="nobr">14–15</span></th>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r25 c2">0.223</td>
|
|
<td class="align1asterisk" headers="r23 r24 r25 c3">0.212</td>
|
|
<td class="align1asterisk" headers="r23 r24 r25 c4">0.252</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r25 c5">0.299*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r25 c6">0.289*</td>
|
|
<td class="align1asterisk" headers="r23 r24 r25 c7">0.252</td>
|
|
<td class="align1asterisk" headers="r23 r24 r25 c8">0.219</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r25 c9">0.100*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r25 c10">0.079*</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r26" headers="r23 r24 c1"><span class="nobr">16–17</span></th>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r26 c2">2.144</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r26 c3">2.325*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r26 c4">2.674*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r26 c5">2.991*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r26 c6">3.076*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r26 c7">3.058*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r26 c8">2.938*</td>
|
|
<td class="align1asterisk" headers="r23 r24 r26 c9">1.856</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r26 c10">0.926*</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r27" headers="r23 r24 c1"><span class="nobr">18–21</span></th>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r27 c2">3.607</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r27 c3">3.463*</td>
|
|
<td class="align1asterisk" headers="r23 r24 r27 c4">3.727</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r27 c5">4.114*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r27 c6">4.223*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r27 c7">4.254*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r27 c8">4.142*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r27 c9">3.114*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r27 c10">2.296*</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r28" headers="r23 r24 c1"><span class="nobr">22–24</span></th>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r28 c2">0.623</td>
|
|
<td class="align1asterisk" headers="r23 r24 r28 c3">0.617</td>
|
|
<td class="align1asterisk" headers="r23 r24 r28 c4">0.608</td>
|
|
<td class="align1asterisk" headers="r23 r24 r28 c5">0.657</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r28 c6">0.697*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r28 c7">0.680*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r28 c8">0.706*</td>
|
|
<td class="align1asterisk" headers="r23 r24 r28 c9">0.662</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r28 c10">0.488*</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r29" headers="r23 c1">Section 301 continuation <sup>a</sup></th>
|
|
<td colspan="9"></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r30" headers="r23 r29 c1"><span class="nobr">14–15</span></th>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r30 c2">a</td>
|
|
<td class="align1asterisk" headers="r23 r29 r30 c3">a</td>
|
|
<td class="align1asterisk" headers="r23 r29 r30 c4">a</td>
|
|
<td class="align1asterisk" headers="r23 r29 r30 c5">a</td>
|
|
<td class="align1asterisk" headers="r23 r29 r30 c6">a</td>
|
|
<td class="align1asterisk" headers="r23 r29 r30 c7">a</td>
|
|
<td class="align1asterisk" headers="r23 r29 r30 c8">a</td>
|
|
<td class="align1asterisk" headers="r23 r29 r30 c9">a</td>
|
|
<td class="align1asterisk" headers="r23 r29 r30 c10">a</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r31" headers="r23 r29 c1"><span class="nobr">16–17</span></th>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r31 c2">a</td>
|
|
<td class="align1asterisk" headers="r23 r29 r31 c3">a</td>
|
|
<td class="align1asterisk" headers="r23 r29 r31 c4">a</td>
|
|
<td class="align1asterisk" headers="r23 r29 r31 c5">a</td>
|
|
<td class="align1asterisk" headers="r23 r29 r31 c6">a</td>
|
|
<td class="align1asterisk" headers="r23 r29 r31 c7">a</td>
|
|
<td class="align1asterisk" headers="r23 r29 r31 c8">a</td>
|
|
<td class="align1asterisk" headers="r23 r29 r31 c9">a</td>
|
|
<td class="align1asterisk" headers="r23 r29 r31 c10">a</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r32" headers="r23 r29 c1"><span class="nobr">18–21</span></th>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r32 c2">0.511</td>
|
|
<td class="align1asterisk" headers="r23 r29 r32 c3">0.476</td>
|
|
<td class="align1asterisk" headers="r23 r29 r32 c4">0.563</td>
|
|
<td class="align1asterisk" headers="r23 r29 r32 c5">0.552</td>
|
|
<td class="align1asterisk" headers="r23 r29 r32 c6">0.437</td>
|
|
<td class="align1asterisk" headers="r23 r29 r32 c7">0.371</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r32 c8">0.298*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r32 c9">0.195*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r32 c10">0.147*</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r33" headers="r23 r29 c1"><span class="nobr">22–24</span></th>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r33 c2">0.142</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r33 c3">0.110*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r33 c4">0.098*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r33 c5">0.100*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r33 c6">0.089*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r33 c7">0.090*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r33 c8">0.083*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r33 c9">0.094*</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r33 c10">0.093*</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tbody>
|
|
<tfoot>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="firstNote" colspan="10">SOURCE: Authors' calculations based on <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> and Department of Education administrative data.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="note" colspan="10">NOTES: Results are for six separate regressions.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="note" colspan="10">Estimates based on very low underlying values may be negative after regression adjustment.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="note" colspan="10">All models control for fixed state effects and individual characteristics.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="note" colspan="10">Standard errors are clustered at the state level.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="note" colspan="10">* = significantly different from zero at the 0.10 level, two-tailed test.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="note" colspan="10">Observations = 10,811,541.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="lastNote" colspan="10">a. Ages <span class="nobr">14–15</span> and <span class="nobr">16–17</span> omitted because of small sample sizes.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tfoot>
|
|
</table>
|
|
</div>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<p><abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> engagement plateaued for all age groups from 2017 to 2019. The stability in the rates of <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> applications and signed <abbr class="spell">IPE</abbr>s starting in 2017 could reflect a <span class="nobr">3-year</span> lag to implement <abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr> policies or an improvement in their implementation once reporting of <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> activities became mandatory in 2017.</p>
|
|
<p>The <span class="nobr">post-<abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr></span> changes in <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> engagement were similar both for the 14 states with consistently high <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> access ratios and the 15 states with consistently low ratios (Table 3). The lack of a statistically significant difference between the states with consistently high and low <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> access ratios suggests that <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> engagement for young <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients increased across all states after <abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr>, regardless of ease of <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> access.</p>
|
|
<div class="table" id="table3">
|
|
<table>
|
|
<caption><span class="tableNumber">Table 3. </span>Regression results for <abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr> effects on two measures of <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> engagement, for states with low and high <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> access ratios, <span class="nobr">2010–2021</span></caption>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:12em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:12em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="2" style="width:12em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:12em" class="shaded"></colgroup>
|
|
<thead>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th rowspan="2" class="stubHeading" scope="colgroup">Measure</th>
|
|
<th rowspan="2" scope="colgroup">Pre-<abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr> <span class="nobr">(2010–2013)</span>: mean across all states</th>
|
|
<th colspan="2" class="spanner" scope="colgroup">Post-<abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr> <span class="nobr">(2014–2021)</span> difference in—</th>
|
|
<th rowspan="2" scope="colgroup"><span class="nobr"><i>p</i>-value </span>of the difference across groups</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th scope="col">States with low <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> access ratios</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">States with high <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> access ratios</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</thead>
|
|
<tbody>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">Applied for <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> services</th>
|
|
<td>0.33</td>
|
|
<td>2.27</td>
|
|
<td>2.99</td>
|
|
<td>0.14</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">Signed an <abbr class="spell">IPE</abbr></th>
|
|
<td>0.15</td>
|
|
<td>1.99</td>
|
|
<td>2.70</td>
|
|
<td>0.17</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tbody>
|
|
<tfoot>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="firstNote" colspan="5">SOURCE: Authors' calculations based on <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> and Department of Education administrative data.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="lastNote" colspan="5">NOTES: Results are for two separate regressions. All values are regression-adjusted.
|
|
<div class="newNote">Both models control for fixed state effects and individual characteristics.</div>
|
|
<div class="newNote">Standard errors are clustered at the state level.</div>
|
|
<div class="newNote">Observations = 10,811,541.</div>
|
|
</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tfoot>
|
|
</table>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<p>In Model 2, we further examine the relationship between <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> engagement and <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> access by estimating the association between changes in the <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> access ratio and changes in <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> engagement from 2017 to 2021. As noted earlier, the ratio is a proxy for potential access to <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> and <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> agencies' experience with offering <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr>,</span> which varies by state and year.</p>
|
|
<p>Pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr> access ratios have large, positive associations with <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> engagement after controlling for individual characteristics and fixed state effects (Table 4). For each 10 percentage-point increase in the <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> access ratio, the likelihood that a young person signed an <abbr class="spell">IPE</abbr> increased by 0.34 percentage points (<i>p-</i>value = 0.08). This finding implies a 13 percent increase from the baseline <span class="nobr">(pre-<abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr>)</span> scenario of no access to <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr>,</span> in which 2.55 percent of youths signed an <abbr class="spell">IPE</abbr>. We observe a similar large, positive association between <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> access ratios and <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> applications, but that association is not statistically significant (<i>p</i>-value = 0.10).</p>
|
|
<div class="table" id="table4">
|
|
<table>
|
|
<caption><span class="tableNumber">Table 4. </span>Regression results for change from 2017 to 2021 in two measures of <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> engagement, with effects of increased <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> access, by age group</caption>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:8em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="3" style="width:10em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:10em" class="shaded"></colgroup>
|
|
<thead>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stubHeading" scope="col">Age group</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Mean among states with no <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> access</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Effect of increasing <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> access ratio by 10 percentage points</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Standard error</th>
|
|
<th scope="col"><span class="nobr"><i>p</i>-value</span></th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</thead>
|
|
<tbody>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<th colspan="4" class="panel" scope="rowgroup">Applied for <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> services</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">All ages <span class="nobr">14–24</span></th>
|
|
<td>2.94</td>
|
|
<td>0.24</td>
|
|
<td>0.14</td>
|
|
<td>0.10</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><span class="nobr">14–15</span></th>
|
|
<td>0.42</td>
|
|
<td>0.24</td>
|
|
<td>0.07</td>
|
|
<td>0.00</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><span class="nobr">16–17</span></th>
|
|
<td>1.78</td>
|
|
<td>0.87</td>
|
|
<td>0.28</td>
|
|
<td>0.00</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><span class="nobr">18–21</span></th>
|
|
<td>5.02</td>
|
|
<td>0.18</td>
|
|
<td>0.21</td>
|
|
<td>0.39</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><span class="nobr">22–24</span></th>
|
|
<td>2.72</td>
|
|
<td>-0.08</td>
|
|
<td>0.13</td>
|
|
<td>0.53</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<th colspan="4" class="panel" scope="rowgroup">Signed an <abbr class="spell">IPE</abbr></th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">All ages <span class="nobr">14–24</span></th>
|
|
<td>2.55</td>
|
|
<td>0.34</td>
|
|
<td>0.19</td>
|
|
<td>0.08</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><span class="nobr">14–15</span></th>
|
|
<td>0.41</td>
|
|
<td>0.17</td>
|
|
<td>0.08</td>
|
|
<td>0.03</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><span class="nobr">16–17</span></th>
|
|
<td>1.17</td>
|
|
<td>0.70</td>
|
|
<td>0.21</td>
|
|
<td>0.00</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><span class="nobr">18–21</span></th>
|
|
<td>4.35</td>
|
|
<td>0.51</td>
|
|
<td>0.30</td>
|
|
<td>0.09</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><span class="nobr">22–24</span></th>
|
|
<td>2.59</td>
|
|
<td>0.00</td>
|
|
<td>0.21</td>
|
|
<td>0.99</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tbody>
|
|
<tfoot>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="firstNote" colspan="5">SOURCE: Authors' calculations based on <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> and Department of Education administrative data.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="lastNote" colspan="5">NOTES: Results are for 10 separate regressions. All values are regression-adjusted.
|
|
<div class="newNote">All models control for fixed state effects and individual characteristics.</div>
|
|
<div class="newNote">Standard errors are clustered at the state level.</div>
|
|
<div class="newNote">Observations = 4,197,947.</div>
|
|
</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tfoot>
|
|
</table>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<p>The association between <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> access ratios and <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> engagement from 2017 to 2021 was statistically significant and positive for the youngest age groups. An increase in <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> access of 10 percentage points correlated with significant increases in <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> applications among youths aged <span class="nobr">14–15</span> and <span class="nobr">16–17</span> (0.24 percentage point and 0.87 percentage point, respectively). These changes represent an increase of about 50 percent from the <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr></span> baseline scenario in which no youths used <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr>.</span> Increases in the state's <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> access ratios had no statistically significant associations with any changes in <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> service application among youths aged <span class="nobr">18–21</span> and <span class="nobr">22–24.</span> Changes in the rate of signed <abbr class="spell">IPE</abbr>s follow a similar pattern—the main difference is that youths aged <span class="nobr">18–21</span> were also more likely to sign <abbr class="spell">IPE</abbr>s following increases in access to <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> (<i>p</i>-value = 0.09).</p>
|
|
<h3>Employment and Earnings</h3>
|
|
<p>In this section, we evaluate how the increased use of <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> and other <abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr> effects corresponded with the employment of young <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients. <abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr> changes might either increase employment (as youths engage in <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> activities and other <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> services that help them transition to the labor force) or decrease employment in the short term (if greater access to <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> leads them to seek further vocational training before pursuing work). The previous subsection showed the associations of <abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr> and state-level <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> access ratios with increased use of <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> services. The evidence in the literature, as noted, also suggests <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> service use improves employment outcomes.</p>
|
|
<p>The share of young <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients who had any earnings increased during our analysis period (Chart 5). However, the increases were modest after <abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr> was enacted in 2014. The findings of Model 1, which adjusts for individual characteristics and fixed state effects, suggest that employment outcomes improved after <abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr> (Table 5). The likelihood that young <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients overall had any paid earnings increased from 16.39 percent per year in the <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr></span> period <span class="nobr">2010–2013</span> to 19.99 percent after <abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr> <span class="nobr">(2014–2021),</span> a 22 percent increase. Average annual earnings increased more than 50 percent during the study period—from $457 to $696.</p>
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|
<div class="svgChart chart700" id="chart5"> <img src="v84n4p27-chart05.svg" role="img" alt="Chart 5. Two panels of line charts with consolidated tabular version below.">
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<div class="table altTable"> <a class="altToggle" href="">Show as table</a>
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<table>
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<caption><span class="tableNumber">Table equivalent for Chart 5. </span>Indicators of employment among <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients aged <span class="nobr">14–24,</span> by age group, <span class="nobr">2010–2021</span></caption>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:8em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:8em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="4" style="width:8em"></colgroup>
|
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<thead>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th rowspan="2" class="stubHeading" scope="colgroup">Year</th>
|
|
<th rowspan="2" scope="colgroup">All</th>
|
|
<th colspan="4" class="spanner" scope="colgroup">Age group</th>
|
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</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th scope="col"><span class="nobr">14–15</span></th>
|
|
<th scope="col"><span class="nobr">16–17</span></th>
|
|
<th scope="col"><span class="nobr">18–21</span></th>
|
|
<th scope="col"><span class="nobr">22–24</span></th>
|
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</tr>
|
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</thead>
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<tbody>
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<tr>
|
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<td> </td>
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|
<th colspan="5" class="panel" scope="rowgroup">Panel A: Any earnings in year (percent)</th>
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</tr>
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<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2010</th>
|
|
<td>16.58</td>
|
|
<td>1.90</td>
|
|
<td>9.50</td>
|
|
<td>22.67</td>
|
|
<td>22.63</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2011</th>
|
|
<td>16.15</td>
|
|
<td>1.43</td>
|
|
<td>8.41</td>
|
|
<td>22.13</td>
|
|
<td>22.77</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2012</th>
|
|
<td>16.50</td>
|
|
<td>1.43</td>
|
|
<td>8.88</td>
|
|
<td>22.56</td>
|
|
<td>23.45</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2013</th>
|
|
<td>17.03</td>
|
|
<td>1.50</td>
|
|
<td>9.43</td>
|
|
<td>23.39</td>
|
|
<td>24.27</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2014</th>
|
|
<td>17.88</td>
|
|
<td>1.61</td>
|
|
<td>10.57</td>
|
|
<td>24.58</td>
|
|
<td>25.71</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2015</th>
|
|
<td>19.14</td>
|
|
<td>1.78</td>
|
|
<td>12.33</td>
|
|
<td>26.31</td>
|
|
<td>27.15</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2016</th>
|
|
<td>20.07</td>
|
|
<td>1.98</td>
|
|
<td>13.44</td>
|
|
<td>27.38</td>
|
|
<td>27.89</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2017</th>
|
|
<td>19.95</td>
|
|
<td>1.93</td>
|
|
<td>13.71</td>
|
|
<td>27.24</td>
|
|
<td>27.46</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2018</th>
|
|
<td>20.05</td>
|
|
<td>1.94</td>
|
|
<td>14.52</td>
|
|
<td>27.51</td>
|
|
<td>27.06</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2019</th>
|
|
<td>20.30</td>
|
|
<td>1.95</td>
|
|
<td>14.97</td>
|
|
<td>27.95</td>
|
|
<td>26.90</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2020</th>
|
|
<td>17.89</td>
|
|
<td>1.19</td>
|
|
<td>12.09</td>
|
|
<td>24.93</td>
|
|
<td>24.28</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2021</th>
|
|
<td>20.09</td>
|
|
<td>2.43</td>
|
|
<td>16.73</td>
|
|
<td>27.85</td>
|
|
<td>24.57</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<th colspan="5" class="panel" scope="rowgroup">Panel B: Mean annual earnings (2021 $)</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2010</th>
|
|
<td>443</td>
|
|
<td>20</td>
|
|
<td>135</td>
|
|
<td>573</td>
|
|
<td>759</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2011</th>
|
|
<td>429</td>
|
|
<td>13</td>
|
|
<td>119</td>
|
|
<td>540</td>
|
|
<td>758</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2012</th>
|
|
<td>452</td>
|
|
<td>13</td>
|
|
<td>128</td>
|
|
<td>564</td>
|
|
<td>805</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2013</th>
|
|
<td>481</td>
|
|
<td>14</td>
|
|
<td>142</td>
|
|
<td>597</td>
|
|
<td>863</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2014</th>
|
|
<td>528</td>
|
|
<td>16</td>
|
|
<td>171</td>
|
|
<td>657</td>
|
|
<td>953</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2015</th>
|
|
<td>607</td>
|
|
<td>19</td>
|
|
<td>220</td>
|
|
<td>758</td>
|
|
<td>1,091</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2016</th>
|
|
<td>656</td>
|
|
<td>22</td>
|
|
<td>260</td>
|
|
<td>829</td>
|
|
<td>1,142</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2017</th>
|
|
<td>661</td>
|
|
<td>23</td>
|
|
<td>268</td>
|
|
<td>850</td>
|
|
<td>1,136</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2018</th>
|
|
<td>680</td>
|
|
<td>24</td>
|
|
<td>298</td>
|
|
<td>889</td>
|
|
<td>1,145</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2019</th>
|
|
<td>716</td>
|
|
<td>26</td>
|
|
<td>325</td>
|
|
<td>947</td>
|
|
<td>1,180</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2020</th>
|
|
<td>664</td>
|
|
<td>20</td>
|
|
<td>302</td>
|
|
<td>927</td>
|
|
<td>1,019</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2021</th>
|
|
<td>847</td>
|
|
<td>40</td>
|
|
<td>452</td>
|
|
<td>1,193</td>
|
|
<td>1,230</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tbody>
|
|
<tfoot>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="onlyNote" colspan="6">SOURCE: Authors' calculations based on <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> and Department of Education administrative data.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tfoot>
|
|
</table>
|
|
</div>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<div class="table" id="table5">
|
|
<table>
|
|
<caption><span class="tableNumber">Table 5. </span>Regression results for <abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr> effects on two measures of employment, by age group, <span class="nobr">2010–2021</span></caption>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:8em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="2" style="width:8em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:8em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:8em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:8em" class="shaded"></colgroup>
|
|
<thead>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th rowspan="2" class="stubHeading" scope="colgroup">Age group</th>
|
|
<th colspan="2" class="spanner" scope="colgroup">Mean values—</th>
|
|
<th rowspan="2" scope="colgroup">Difference</th>
|
|
<th rowspan="2" scope="colgroup">Standard error</th>
|
|
<th rowspan="2" scope="colgroup"><span class="nobr"><i>p</i>-value</span></th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th scope="col">Pre-<abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr> <span class="nobr">(2010–2013)</span></th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Post-<abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr> <span class="nobr">(2014–2021)</span></th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</thead>
|
|
<tbody>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<th colspan="5" class="panel" scope="rowgroup">Percentage with any earnings in year</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">All ages <span class="nobr">14–24</span></th>
|
|
<td>16.39</td>
|
|
<td>19.99</td>
|
|
<td>3.59</td>
|
|
<td>0.40</td>
|
|
<td>0.00</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><span class="nobr">14–15</span></th>
|
|
<td>0.88</td>
|
|
<td>1.68</td>
|
|
<td>0.80</td>
|
|
<td>0.13</td>
|
|
<td>0.00</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><span class="nobr">16–17</span></th>
|
|
<td>8.53</td>
|
|
<td>13.62</td>
|
|
<td>5.09</td>
|
|
<td>0.55</td>
|
|
<td>0.00</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><span class="nobr">18–21</span></th>
|
|
<td>22.96</td>
|
|
<td>27.54</td>
|
|
<td>4.58</td>
|
|
<td>0.52</td>
|
|
<td>0.00</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><span class="nobr">22–24</span></th>
|
|
<td>23.74</td>
|
|
<td>27.16</td>
|
|
<td>3.42</td>
|
|
<td>0.43</td>
|
|
<td>0.00</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<th colspan="5" class="panel" scope="rowgroup">Mean annual earnings (2021 $)</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">All ages <span class="nobr">14–24</span></th>
|
|
<td>456.80</td>
|
|
<td>695.87</td>
|
|
<td>239.07</td>
|
|
<td>14.90</td>
|
|
<td>0.00</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><span class="nobr">14–15</span></th>
|
|
<td>-41.39</td>
|
|
<td>-27.78</td>
|
|
<td>13.62</td>
|
|
<td>2.99</td>
|
|
<td>0.00</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><span class="nobr">16–17</span></th>
|
|
<td>87.27</td>
|
|
<td>252.03</td>
|
|
<td>164.76</td>
|
|
<td>12.20</td>
|
|
<td>0.00</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><span class="nobr">18–21</span></th>
|
|
<td>599.78</td>
|
|
<td>937.64</td>
|
|
<td>337.86</td>
|
|
<td>21.12</td>
|
|
<td>0.00</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><span class="nobr">22–24</span></th>
|
|
<td>862.84</td>
|
|
<td>1,186.93</td>
|
|
<td>324.10</td>
|
|
<td>23.07</td>
|
|
<td>0.00</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tbody>
|
|
<tfoot>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="firstNote" colspan="6">SOURCE: Authors' calculations based on <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> and Department of Education administrative data.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="lastNote" colspan="6">NOTES: Results are for 10 separate regressions. All values are regression-adjusted.
|
|
<div class="newNote">Estimates based on very low underlying values may be negative after regression adjustment.</div>
|
|
<div class="newNote">All models control for fixed state effects and individual characteristics.</div>
|
|
<div class="newNote">Standard errors are clustered at the state level.</div>
|
|
<div class="newNote">Observations = 10,811,541.</div>
|
|
</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tfoot>
|
|
</table>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<p>In the Model 1 estimates by age group, the increase in the share of youths with any earnings is lowest for ages <span class="nobr">14–15,</span> and the average change in annual earnings increases with age. This pattern is not surprising, as labor force participation tends to be low at ages 14 and 15, and average earnings are expected to increase with age. In splitting the analysis by age group and year after 2014, <a href="#chart4">Chart 4</a> shows that the any-earnings rate generally rose in relation to the <span class="nobr">2010–2013</span> baseline period in the <span class="nobr">post-<abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr></span> years before 2019. The likelihood of having any earnings and the mean annual earnings amounts increased each year after 2014 for all age groups until the <span class="nobr"><abbr>COVID</abbr>-19</span> public health emergency in 2020. Employment outcomes worsened for all age groups when the pandemic emerged in 2020 then started to recover in 2021.</p>
|
|
<p>After <abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr>, young <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients were more likely to have any earnings and had higher annual earnings amounts. The increases were largest in states with consistently high <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> access ratios (Table 6). However, because we observed no differences in <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> outcomes across these states, the difference in employment outcomes might be due to other <abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr> features or state policy and economic environments that do not directly affect <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> service use.</p>
|
|
<div class="table" id="table6">
|
|
<table>
|
|
<caption><span class="tableNumber">Table 6. </span>Regression results for <abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr> effects on two measures of employment, for states with low and high <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> access ratios, <span class="nobr">2010–2021</span></caption>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:13em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:12em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="2" style="width:12em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:12em" class="shaded"></colgroup>
|
|
<thead>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th rowspan="2" class="stubHeading" scope="colgroup">Measure</th>
|
|
<th rowspan="2" scope="colgroup">Pre-<abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr> <span class="nobr">(2010–2013)</span>: mean across all states</th>
|
|
<th colspan="2" class="spanner" scope="colgroup">Post-<abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr> <span class="nobr">(2014–2021)</span> difference in—</th>
|
|
<th rowspan="2" scope="colgroup"><span class="nobr"><i>p</i>-value </span>of the difference across groups</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th scope="col">States with low <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> access ratios</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">States with high <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> access ratios</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</thead>
|
|
<tbody>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">Any earnings in year (%)</th>
|
|
<td>17.16</td>
|
|
<td>2.41</td>
|
|
<td>4.69</td>
|
|
<td>0.01</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">Mean annual earnings (2021 $)</th>
|
|
<td>457.88</td>
|
|
<td>209.18</td>
|
|
<td>272.17</td>
|
|
<td>0.10</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tbody>
|
|
<tfoot>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="firstNote" colspan="5">SOURCE: Authors' calculations based on <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> and Department of Education administrative data.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="lastNote" colspan="5">NOTES: Results are for two separate regressions. All values are regression-adjusted.
|
|
<div class="newNote">Both models control for fixed state effects and individual characteristics.</div>
|
|
<div class="newNote">Standard errors are clustered at the state level.</div>
|
|
<div class="newNote">Observations = 10,811,541.</div>
|
|
</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tfoot>
|
|
</table>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<p>To examine the role of <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> access in these changes, we use Model 2 to explore how employment outcomes varied across states by <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> access ratios from 2017 to 2021 (Table 7). We find a positive association between <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> access ratios and the likelihood of having any earnings after controlling for individual characteristics and fixed state effects. In a baseline <span class="nobr">(pre-<abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr>)</span> scenario with no access to <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr>,</span> 18.89 percent of <span class="nobr">all-ages</span> youths had any earnings. The model estimates that, for each 10 percentage-point increase in the <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> access ratio, the likelihood that a youth had any earnings increased by 0.92 percentage points (<i>p-</i>value = 0.05), or nearly a 5 percent increase from the baseline estimate. We observe a positive and large but not statistically significant association between <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> access ratios and total annual earnings.</p>
|
|
<div class="table" id="table7">
|
|
<table>
|
|
<caption><span class="tableNumber">Table 7. </span>Regression results for change from 2017 to 2021 in two measures of employment, with effects of increased <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> access, by age group</caption>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:8em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="3" style="width:10em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:10em" class="shaded"></colgroup>
|
|
<thead>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stubHeading" scope="col">Age group</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Mean among states with no <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> access</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Effect of increasing <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> access ratio by 10 percentage points</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Standard error</th>
|
|
<th scope="col"><span class="nobr"><i>p</i>-value</span></th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</thead>
|
|
<tbody>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<th colspan="4" class="panel" scope="rowgroup">Percentage with any earnings in year</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">All ages <span class="nobr">14–24</span></th>
|
|
<td>18.89</td>
|
|
<td>0.92</td>
|
|
<td>0.46</td>
|
|
<td>0.05</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><span class="nobr">14–15</span></th>
|
|
<td>0.52</td>
|
|
<td>0.27</td>
|
|
<td>0.31</td>
|
|
<td>0.39</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><span class="nobr">16–17</span></th>
|
|
<td>12.14</td>
|
|
<td>1.21</td>
|
|
<td>0.46</td>
|
|
<td>0.01</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><span class="nobr">18–21</span></th>
|
|
<td>26.79</td>
|
|
<td>1.04</td>
|
|
<td>0.53</td>
|
|
<td>0.05</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><span class="nobr">22–24</span></th>
|
|
<td>26.14</td>
|
|
<td>1.01</td>
|
|
<td>0.71</td>
|
|
<td>0.17</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<th colspan="4" class="panel" scope="rowgroup">Annual earnings (2021 $)</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">All ages <span class="nobr">14–24</span></th>
|
|
<td>691.95</td>
|
|
<td>24.78</td>
|
|
<td>20.14</td>
|
|
<td>0.22</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><span class="nobr">14–15</span></th>
|
|
<td>-63.60</td>
|
|
<td>-5.95</td>
|
|
<td>7.54</td>
|
|
<td>0.43</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><span class="nobr">16–17</span></th>
|
|
<td>221.11</td>
|
|
<td>23.91</td>
|
|
<td>11.11</td>
|
|
<td>0.04</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><span class="nobr">18–21</span></th>
|
|
<td>962.59</td>
|
|
<td>39.01</td>
|
|
<td>25.56</td>
|
|
<td>0.13</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><span class="nobr">22–24</span></th>
|
|
<td>1,201.44</td>
|
|
<td>26.36</td>
|
|
<td>35.35</td>
|
|
<td>0.46</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tbody>
|
|
<tfoot>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="firstNote" colspan="5">SOURCE: Authors' calculations based on <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> and Department of Education administrative data.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="lastNote" colspan="5">NOTES: Results are for 10 separate regressions. All values are regression-adjusted.
|
|
<div class="newNote">Estimates based on very low underlying values may be negative after regression adjustment.</div>
|
|
<div class="newNote">All models control for fixed state effects and individual characteristics.</div>
|
|
<div class="newNote">Standard errors are clustered at the state level.</div>
|
|
<div class="newNote">Observations = 4,197,947.</div>
|
|
</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tfoot>
|
|
</table>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<p>The <span class="nobr">post-<abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr></span> patterns of change in <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> access and in earnings outcomes by age are similar. Table 7 shows that correlations between <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> access and the percentage of youths with earnings were significant for those aged <span class="nobr">16–17</span> and <span class="nobr">18–21,</span> but not for the oldest <span class="nobr">(22–24)</span> and youngest <span class="nobr">(14–15)</span> groups. The association between mean annual earnings and <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> access ratios was positive and significant only for youths aged <span class="nobr">16–17.</span></p>
|
|
<p>These results partially support the hypothesis of a positive association of <abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr> and <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> access with better employment outcomes. The association is stronger in the extensive margin—increasing the likelihood that young <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients had any earnings—than in the intensive margin, where the associations with earnings amounts were less robust.</p>
|
|
<h3>Use of Work Incentives</h3>
|
|
<p>Two potential pathways could lead to a <span class="nobr">post-<abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr></span> increase in work incentive use. First, greater <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> service use (as evidenced by increased <abbr class="spell">IPE</abbr> signings) could result in more youths meeting the requirements for continued <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> payments through Section 301. Second, the <span class="nobr">post-<abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr></span> increase in the use of <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> and other <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> services may have contributed to increased use of <abbr class="spell">SEIE</abbr>s if the positive association of <span class="nobr">post-<abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr></span> earnings outcomes occurred for students.</p>
|
|
<p>Our descriptive statistics show that the association between <abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr> and work incentive use is weak. The share of young <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients who used the <abbr class="spell">SEIE</abbr> remained relatively stable from 2010 to 2019 and declined during the pandemic years, whereas the share using Section 301 continuations declined over time (Chart 6).</p>
|
|
<div class="svgChart chart700" id="chart6"> <img src="v84n4p27-chart06.svg" role="img" alt="Table 6. Two panels of line charts with consolidated tabular version below.">
|
|
<div class="table altTable"> <a class="altToggle" href="">Show as table</a>
|
|
<table>
|
|
<caption><span class="tableNumber">Table equivalent for Chart 6. </span>Use of <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> work incentives by <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients aged <span class="nobr">14–24,</span> by age group, <span class="nobr">2010–2021</span> (in percent)</caption>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:8em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:8em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="4" style="width:8em"></colgroup>
|
|
<thead>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th rowspan="2" class="stubHeading" scope="colgroup">Year</th>
|
|
<th rowspan="2" scope="colgroup">All</th>
|
|
<th colspan="4" class="spanner" scope="colgroup">Age group</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th scope="col"><span class="nobr">14–15</span></th>
|
|
<th scope="col"><span class="nobr">16–17</span></th>
|
|
<th scope="col"><span class="nobr">18–21</span></th>
|
|
<th scope="col"><span class="nobr">22–24</span></th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</thead>
|
|
<tbody>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<th colspan="5" class="panel" scope="rowgroup">Panel A: <abbr class="spell">SEIE</abbr></th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2010</th>
|
|
<td>2.15</td>
|
|
<td>0.29</td>
|
|
<td>2.34</td>
|
|
<td>3.94</td>
|
|
<td>0.62</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2011</th>
|
|
<td>1.91</td>
|
|
<td>0.24</td>
|
|
<td>2.02</td>
|
|
<td>3.59</td>
|
|
<td>0.59</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2012</th>
|
|
<td>1.85</td>
|
|
<td>0.22</td>
|
|
<td>2.07</td>
|
|
<td>3.50</td>
|
|
<td>0.60</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2013</th>
|
|
<td>1.78</td>
|
|
<td>0.22</td>
|
|
<td>2.16</td>
|
|
<td>3.39</td>
|
|
<td>0.57</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2014</th>
|
|
<td>1.81</td>
|
|
<td>0.23</td>
|
|
<td>2.33</td>
|
|
<td>3.46</td>
|
|
<td>0.58</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2015</th>
|
|
<td>1.96</td>
|
|
<td>0.27</td>
|
|
<td>2.68</td>
|
|
<td>3.73</td>
|
|
<td>0.57</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2016</th>
|
|
<td>2.21</td>
|
|
<td>0.32</td>
|
|
<td>2.99</td>
|
|
<td>4.11</td>
|
|
<td>0.62</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2017</th>
|
|
<td>2.31</td>
|
|
<td>0.32</td>
|
|
<td>3.08</td>
|
|
<td>4.22</td>
|
|
<td>0.66</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2018</th>
|
|
<td>2.32</td>
|
|
<td>0.29</td>
|
|
<td>3.08</td>
|
|
<td>4.26</td>
|
|
<td>0.64</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2019</th>
|
|
<td>2.29</td>
|
|
<td>0.26</td>
|
|
<td>2.96</td>
|
|
<td>4.16</td>
|
|
<td>0.67</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2020</th>
|
|
<td>1.69</td>
|
|
<td>0.14</td>
|
|
<td>1.89</td>
|
|
<td>3.14</td>
|
|
<td>0.63</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2021</th>
|
|
<td>1.16</td>
|
|
<td>0.11</td>
|
|
<td>0.95</td>
|
|
<td>2.33</td>
|
|
<td>0.46</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<th colspan="5" class="panel" scope="rowgroup">Panel B: Section 301 continuation <sup>a</sup></th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2010</th>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>0.55</td>
|
|
<td>0.06</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2011</th>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>0.51</td>
|
|
<td>0.09</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2012</th>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>0.41</td>
|
|
<td>0.10</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2013</th>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>0.44</td>
|
|
<td>0.07</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2014</th>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>0.45</td>
|
|
<td>0.05</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2015</th>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>0.54</td>
|
|
<td>0.04</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2016</th>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>0.52</td>
|
|
<td>0.04</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2017</th>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>0.41</td>
|
|
<td>0.02</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2018</th>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>0.34</td>
|
|
<td>0.02</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2019</th>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>0.27</td>
|
|
<td>0.02</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2020</th>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>0.18</td>
|
|
<td>0.03</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2021</th>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>0.14</td>
|
|
<td>0.03</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tbody>
|
|
<tfoot>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="firstNote" colspan="6">SOURCE: Authors' calculations based on <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> and Department of Education administrative data.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="lastNote" colspan="6">a. Ages <span class="nobr">14–15</span> and <span class="nobr">16–17</span> omitted because of small sample sizes.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tfoot>
|
|
</table>
|
|
</div>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<p>Adjusting for individual characteristics and fixed state effects, Model 1 shows that the likelihood of using Section 301 continuations decreased from 0.19 percent before <abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr> to 0.13 percent afterward (Table 8) and the increase in <abbr class="spell">SEIE</abbr> use was negligible. However, these are percentages among all young <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients, not among only those who are most likely to use the work incentives.</p>
|
|
<div class="table" id="table8">
|
|
<table>
|
|
<caption><span class="tableNumber">Table 8. </span>Regression results for <abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr> effects on two measures of <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> work incentive use, by age group, <span class="nobr">2010–2021</span></caption>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:8em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="2" style="width:8em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:8em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:8em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:8em" class="shaded"></colgroup>
|
|
<thead>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th rowspan="2" class="stubHeading" scope="colgroup">Age group</th>
|
|
<th colspan="2" class="spanner" scope="colgroup">Mean values—</th>
|
|
<th rowspan="2" scope="colgroup">Difference</th>
|
|
<th rowspan="2" scope="colgroup">Standard error</th>
|
|
<th rowspan="2" scope="colgroup"><span class="nobr"><i>p</i>-value</span></th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th scope="col">Pre-<abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr> <span class="nobr">(2010–2013)</span></th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Post-<abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr> <span class="nobr">(2014–2021)</span></th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</thead>
|
|
<tbody>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<th colspan="5" class="panel" scope="rowgroup"><abbr class="spell">SEIE</abbr></th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">All ages <span class="nobr">14–24</span></th>
|
|
<td>1.88</td>
|
|
<td>2.01</td>
|
|
<td>0.12</td>
|
|
<td>0.08</td>
|
|
<td>0.11</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><span class="nobr">14–15</span></th>
|
|
<td>0.23</td>
|
|
<td>0.24</td>
|
|
<td>0.00</td>
|
|
<td>0.03</td>
|
|
<td>0.87</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><span class="nobr">16–17</span></th>
|
|
<td>2.19</td>
|
|
<td>2.54</td>
|
|
<td>0.36</td>
|
|
<td>0.13</td>
|
|
<td>0.01</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><span class="nobr">18–21</span></th>
|
|
<td>3.57</td>
|
|
<td>3.70</td>
|
|
<td>0.13</td>
|
|
<td>0.13</td>
|
|
<td>0.33</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><span class="nobr">22–24</span></th>
|
|
<td>0.61</td>
|
|
<td>0.63</td>
|
|
<td>0.03</td>
|
|
<td>0.02</td>
|
|
<td>0.01</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<th colspan="5" class="panel" scope="rowgroup">Section 301 continuation</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">All ages <span class="nobr">14–24</span></th>
|
|
<td>0.19</td>
|
|
<td>0.13</td>
|
|
<td>-0.06</td>
|
|
<td>0.03</td>
|
|
<td>0.04</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><span class="nobr">14–15</span></th>
|
|
<td>(X)</td>
|
|
<td>(X)</td>
|
|
<td>(X)</td>
|
|
<td>(X)</td>
|
|
<td>(X)</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><span class="nobr">16–17</span></th>
|
|
<td>(X)</td>
|
|
<td>(X)</td>
|
|
<td>(X)</td>
|
|
<td>(X)</td>
|
|
<td>(X)</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><span class="nobr">18–21</span></th>
|
|
<td>0.50</td>
|
|
<td>0.37</td>
|
|
<td>-0.14</td>
|
|
<td>0.07</td>
|
|
<td>0.06</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><span class="nobr">22–24</span></th>
|
|
<td>0.13</td>
|
|
<td>0.09</td>
|
|
<td>-0.04</td>
|
|
<td>0.02</td>
|
|
<td>0.04</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tbody>
|
|
<tfoot>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="firstNote" colspan="6">SOURCE: Authors' calculations based on <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> and Department of Education administrative data.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="lastNote" colspan="6">NOTES: Results are for 10 separate regressions. All values are regression-adjusted.
|
|
<div class="newNote">All models control for fixed state effects and individual characteristics.</div>
|
|
<div class="newNote">Standard errors are clustered at the state level.</div>
|
|
<div class="newNote">Observations = 10,811,541.</div>
|
|
<div class="newNote">(X) = omitted because of small sample size.</div>
|
|
</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tfoot>
|
|
</table>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<p><abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr>'s effects on work incentive use differed by age group and incentive type. The decline in the use of Section 301 continuations was driven primarily by individuals aged <span class="nobr">18–21</span>—which is the group most likely to use that incentive.<sup><a href="#mn6" id="mt6">6</a></sup> The point estimates by age also show that youths aged <span class="nobr">16–17</span> had the largest increase in the likelihood of using the <abbr class="spell">SEIE</abbr>, from 2.19 percent for the period <span class="nobr">2010–2013</span> to 2.54 percent for the period <span class="nobr">2014–2021.</span> Youths aged <span class="nobr">22–24</span> were less than 0.03 percentage point more likely to use the <abbr class="spell">SEIE</abbr> after <abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr> than before. Although the increase and the share of <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients using this work incentive are small, this difference is precisely estimated.</p>
|
|
<p>Patterns in the use of the two work incentives also differed when we split the analysis in Model 1 by age group and year after 2014. Relative to the <span class="nobr">2010–2013</span> baseline period, the likelihood of using Section 301 continuations fell in each <span class="nobr">post-<abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr></span> year for the <span class="nobr">18–21</span> and <span class="nobr">22–24</span> age groups, for whom this policy is relevant. The decline continued until the pandemic (<a href="#chart4">Chart 4</a>). However, <abbr class="spell">SEIE</abbr> use increased for youths aged <span class="nobr">16–17</span> and <span class="nobr">18–21</span> after 2014, until the pandemic years likewise interrupted that trend. The use of both types of work incentives dropped for all age groups in 2020 and 2021. Although <abbr class="spell">SEIE</abbr> use might be expected to decline because of the decline in employment during the pandemic, the decrease in Section 301 continuation use is unexpected (because that incentive is tied to education and training).</p>
|
|
<p>The increase in <abbr class="spell">SEIE</abbr> use after <abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr> was concentrated in states with consistently high <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> access ratios (Table 9). This pattern corresponds with those of young <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients in these states having (1) a higher likelihood of receiving any earnings and (2) higher annual earnings (Table 6).</p>
|
|
<div class="table" id="table9">
|
|
<table>
|
|
<caption><span class="tableNumber">Table 9. </span>Regression results for <abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr> effects on two measures of <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> work incentive use, for states with low and high <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> access ratios, <span class="nobr">2010–2021</span></caption>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:13em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:12em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="2" style="width:12em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:12em" class="shaded"></colgroup>
|
|
<thead>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th rowspan="2" class="stubHeading" scope="colgroup">Incentive</th>
|
|
<th rowspan="2" scope="colgroup">Pre-<abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr> <span class="nobr">(2010–2013)</span>: mean across all states</th>
|
|
<th colspan="2" class="spanner" scope="colgroup">Post-<abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr> <span class="nobr">(2014–2021)</span> difference in—</th>
|
|
<th rowspan="2" scope="colgroup"><span class="nobr"><i>p</i>-value </span>of the difference across groups</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th scope="col">States with low <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> access ratios</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">States with high <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> access ratios</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</thead>
|
|
<tbody>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><abbr class="spell">SEIE</abbr></th>
|
|
<td>2.02</td>
|
|
<td>-0.07</td>
|
|
<td>0.47</td>
|
|
<td>0.02</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">Section 301 continuation</th>
|
|
<td>0.13</td>
|
|
<td>-0.02</td>
|
|
<td>-0.09</td>
|
|
<td>0.32</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tbody>
|
|
<tfoot>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="firstNote" colspan="5">SOURCE: Authors' calculations based on <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> and Department of Education administrative data.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="lastNote" colspan="5">NOTES: Results are for two separate regressions. All values are regression-adjusted.
|
|
<div class="newNote">Both models control for fixed state effects and individual characteristics.</div>
|
|
<div class="newNote">Standard errors are clustered at the state level.</div>
|
|
<div class="newNote">Observations = 10,811,541.</div>
|
|
</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tfoot>
|
|
</table>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<p>When we consider access to <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> from 2017 to 2021 in Model 2, we find a large, positive association between <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> access ratios and the likelihood of using a Section 301 continuation but not the <abbr class="spell">SEIE</abbr> after controlling for individual characteristics and fixed state effects (Table 10). For each 10 percentage-point increase in the <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> access ratio, use of Section 301 continuations increased by 0.05 percentage point (<i>p</i>-value = 0.06). This finding implies an increase of more than 80 percent from a baseline scenario of no <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> access, in which 0.06 percent of youths used Section 301 continuations.</p>
|
|
<div class="table" id="table10">
|
|
<table>
|
|
<caption><span class="tableNumber">Table 10. </span>Regression results for change from 2017 to 2021 in two measures of <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> work incentive use, with effects of increased <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> access, by age group</caption>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:8em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="3" style="width:10em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:10em" class="shaded"></colgroup>
|
|
<thead>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stubHeading" scope="col">Age group</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Mean among states with no <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> access</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Effect of increasing <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> access ratio by 10 percentage points</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Standard error</th>
|
|
<th scope="col"><span class="nobr"><i>p</i>-value</span></th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</thead>
|
|
<tbody>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<th colspan="4" class="panel" scope="rowgroup"><abbr class="spell">SEIE</abbr></th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">All ages <span class="nobr">14–24</span></th>
|
|
<td>1.88</td>
|
|
<td>0.10</td>
|
|
<td>0.14</td>
|
|
<td>0.49</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><span class="nobr">14–15</span></th>
|
|
<td>0.04</td>
|
|
<td>0.10</td>
|
|
<td>0.07</td>
|
|
<td>0.15</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><span class="nobr">16–17</span></th>
|
|
<td>2.13</td>
|
|
<td>0.22</td>
|
|
<td>0.23</td>
|
|
<td>0.34</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><span class="nobr">18–21</span></th>
|
|
<td>3.59</td>
|
|
<td>0.08</td>
|
|
<td>0.24</td>
|
|
<td>0.73</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><span class="nobr">22–24</span></th>
|
|
<td>0.69</td>
|
|
<td>0.03</td>
|
|
<td>0.07</td>
|
|
<td>0.66</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<th colspan="4" class="panel" scope="rowgroup">Section 301 continuation</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">All ages <span class="nobr">14–24</span></th>
|
|
<td>0.06</td>
|
|
<td>0.05</td>
|
|
<td>0.03</td>
|
|
<td>0.06</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><span class="nobr">14–15</span></th>
|
|
<td>(X)</td>
|
|
<td>(X)</td>
|
|
<td>(X)</td>
|
|
<td>(X)</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><span class="nobr">16–17</span></th>
|
|
<td>(X)</td>
|
|
<td>(X)</td>
|
|
<td>(X)</td>
|
|
<td>(X)</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><span class="nobr">18–21</span></th>
|
|
<td>0.19</td>
|
|
<td>0.12</td>
|
|
<td>0.07</td>
|
|
<td>0.09</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><span class="nobr">22–24</span></th>
|
|
<td>0.06</td>
|
|
<td>0.02</td>
|
|
<td>0.01</td>
|
|
<td>0.03</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tbody>
|
|
<tfoot>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="firstNote" colspan="5">SOURCE: Authors' calculations based on <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> and Department of Education administrative data.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="lastNote" colspan="5">NOTES: Results are for 10 separate regressions. All values are regression-adjusted.
|
|
<div class="newNote">All models control for fixed state effects and individual characteristics.</div>
|
|
<div class="newNote">Standard errors are clustered at the state level.</div>
|
|
<div class="newNote">Observations = 4,197,947.</div>
|
|
<div class="newNote">(X) = omitted because of small sample size.</div>
|
|
</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tfoot>
|
|
</table>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<p>Letting the association between <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> access and work incentive use vary by age in Model 2 reveals important heterogeneities, as expected, as work incentives are more relevant for recipients of certain ages than for others. Table 10 shows that higher <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> access ratios were associated with increased Section 301 continuation use for all age groups. The point estimate is largest for ages <span class="nobr">18–21,</span> where an increase of 10 percentage points in <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> access was associated with significant increases of 0.12 percentage point in the use of Section 301 continuations—corresponding to a 63 percent increase from a baseline scenario of no <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> access.</p>
|
|
<h3>Sensitivity Analyses</h3>
|
|
<p>Our main results remained largely unaffected under alternative specifications. First, because 2017 is the first year for which states reported <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> statistics, we removed states with extremely high (Iowa) or low (California, New Jersey, and New York) <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> access ratios in 2017. Although these states could be legitimate outliers in <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> offered and provided, they also could have experienced data quality issues as they initiated reporting the numbers to <abbr class="spell">RSA</abbr>. To avoid capturing spurious correlations or hiding important patterns in the data caused by measurement errors, we reestimated our regressions dropping outlier states from the sample. Second, to test the sensitivity of the estimates to the <span class="nobr"><abbr>COVID</abbr>-19</span> pandemic years, we used the main models for the study period omitting 2020 and 2021. In these two tests, all estimates of <abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr> effects on outcomes and the associations with <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> access ratios still pointed in the same direction. Several estimates lost some statistical significance, which is not surprising given the reduced sample size. As expected, the association of <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> access ratios with outcomes was attenuated for all outcomes when we removed the <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> access outlier states from the sample. Third, to control for fluctuations in economic conditions, we added the state annual unemployment rate as a covariate in both models. The point estimates varied, but the coefficients pointed in the same direction and their significance remained largely unchanged from our main analyses. This result strengthens the confidence that our findings are not driven exclusively by the stronger economic environment after 2010.</p>
|
|
<p>We also tested how our estimates varied in the 11 states that participated in the <abbr>PROMISE</abbr> demonstration, which connected young <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients with <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> agencies, among other services. Because the <abbr>PROMISE</abbr> implementation period (2016 to 2019) overlaps our analysis period, the demonstration may have affected the dynamics of <abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr> and <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> in these states. After <abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr>, changes to outcomes in <abbr>PROMISE</abbr> states were similar to those in other states. The only difference was that the <span class="nobr">post-<abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr></span> increase in the rate of recipients with earnings was smaller in <abbr>PROMISE</abbr> states. The similarity in outcomes is not surprising, given that most young <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients in <abbr>PROMISE</abbr> states were not <abbr>PROMISE</abbr> participants. However, the associations between <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> access and <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> engagement and employment were statistically larger in <abbr>PROMISE</abbr> states. These differences suggest that investments in <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> by <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> agencies may have had a cumulative effect in these states. Because <abbr>PROMISE</abbr> enrollment began in 2014 and services began in 2016, the period of our analysis—2017 to 2021—likely captures the additional experience these states had offering services connected to <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr>.</span></p>
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<p>Our final sensitivity analysis uses alternative versions of Model 2 with binary indicators of <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> access ratios to indicate states that exceed the median and the 75<sup>th</sup> percentile ratios (instead of the continuous <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> access ratio). The estimates have the same sign as those of our main model but are mostly not statistically significant. This finding supports the notion that associations between <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> access and changes in outcomes were proportional to increases in <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> access, as opposed to the availability of these services above a certain threshold.<sup><a href="#mn7" id="mt7">7</a></sup></p>
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<h2>Conclusion</h2>
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<p><abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr>'s enactment in 2014 represented a significant shift in how <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> agencies offered services to youths with disabilities. <abbr class="spell">RSA</abbr> has previously documented how <abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr> affected the characteristics of <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> service applicants and participants, who trended considerably younger after <abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr> than before (Department of Education 2020). This study is the first to measure quantitative patterns in the <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> engagement, employment, and work incentive use outcomes for a population of youths with disabilities before and after <abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr>. Using administrative data from <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">RSA</abbr> to track the experiences of young <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients during this period offers a unique opportunity to describe <abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr> effects.</p>
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<p>After <abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr> was enacted, young <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients applied for <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> services and signed <abbr class="spell">IPE</abbr>s at higher rates than before <abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr>. The average <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> application rate increased from 0.34 percent before <abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr> to 2.79 percent afterward. Although the <span class="nobr">post-<abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr></span> rate may seem small, it is not insubstantial: the number of <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> applicants in 2010 was 1,181; in 2019, that number was 30,569. For added context, the number of young <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients who applied for <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> services in 2019 represents almost 7 percent of the 446,919 people of all ages who applied for <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> services that year (Department of Education 2020). This number underscores the scope of the opportunity for <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> agencies to offset these participants' service costs, as they can be reimbursed for those costs by <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> when adult <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients have substantial earnings in 9 consecutive months (<abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> <abbr title="no date">n.d.</abbr>). When we examine state-level service use rates, the story is similarly striking. In 2010, the highest state <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> application rate for young <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients was 0.4 percent. In 2019, the lowest such rate was 0.5 percent, or higher than the state with the best rate 9 years earlier. In the state with the highest rate in 2019, 7.9 percent (or about 1 of every 13 young <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients) applied for <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> services.</p>
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<p>Changes brought by <abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr>, including offering <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> to students with disabilities, were associated with increased applications for <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> services. Although this finding is not unexpected, it does quantitatively document the potential associations that correspond to a specific federal policy change. <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> agencies offer <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> to all students with a disability, without requiring them to apply for further services, and agencies must spend 15 percent of their federal funding on these services. Between 2017 and 2021, higher state-level <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> access ratios were associated with larger increases in signed <abbr class="spell">IPE</abbr>s (but not <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> service application rates) among young <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients. The associations we observe during the later years could be due to a combination of two levers. First, by 2021, <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> agencies had up to 7 years of experience in responding to <abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr> requirements, offering <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> to students with disabilities, and developing partnerships with state and local education agencies and other workforce partners. Hence, they could provide better-quality <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> in later years than in the years just after <abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr> enactment. Second, in those later years, youths with disabilities could have benefited from increased <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> access and other changes brought by <abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr>. For instance, a 21-year-old in 2021 (who was 14 in 2014) could have used <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> for up to 5 years. Potentially, this <span class="nobr">long-term</span> access could better prepare youths for educational and employment opportunities.</p>
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<p>Notably, we find that <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> engagement, employment, and use of <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> work incentives before 2017 (as well as before <abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr>) were higher among young <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients in states with the highest <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> access ratios in the <span class="nobr">2017–2021</span> period than among those in the states with the lowest <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> access ratios. Thus, <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr></span> state policy environments oriented toward the success of youths with disabilities in general and to young <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients specifically may have influenced both <abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr> implementation and other youth services and outcomes.</p>
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<p>Although earnings for young <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients increased after <abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr>, and though it would be consistent with a view that increased <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> access could encourage youths with disabilities to enter the labor market directly, the observed change may relate not exclusively to <abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr> but also to the stronger postrecession economic environment after 2010. Earnings for young <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients in most age groups increased after <abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr>, but the change was strongest for ages <span class="nobr">16–17,</span> and the association with <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> access ratios was positive for the presence of any earnings (though not statistically significant for annual earnings amounts) among all youths in the sample from 2017 to 2021, suggesting potential <abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr> influence on employment.</p>
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<p>We expected increased use of <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> work incentives among young <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients, given increased <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> engagement and earnings, but the evidence is mixed. About 20 percent of this population had any earnings in a given <span class="nobr">post-<abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr></span> year; however, annual <abbr class="spell">SEIE</abbr> use rates were around 2 percent. Only students can use <abbr class="spell">SEIE</abbr>; and although not all young <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients were students, we can assume that a good portion were. We have noted the lack of association between the <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> access ratios and <abbr class="spell">SEIE</abbr> use for the broader population of young <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients. In 2019, almost 23,000 16- and 17-year-old <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients had earnings; comparatively few, just over 4,500 of them, used the <abbr class="spell">SEIE</abbr> work incentive. Similarly, despite the rise in <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> applications, use of Section 301 continuations among youths aged <span class="nobr">18–21</span> (the age group most likely to use them) declined after <abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr> in aggregate, although youths in states with higher <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> access ratios during <span class="nobr">2017–2021</span> were more likely to use them. Youths can use Section 301 continuations to restore <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> eligibility after payments cease because of an <span class="nobr">age-18</span> redetermination, as long as they use <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> or similar services.<sup><a href="#mn8" id="mt8">8</a></sup> <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> agency staff could direct young clients with <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> payment cessations to work-incentives counseling to increase use of Section 301 continuations.</p>
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<p>A final point to consider is that states varied widely toward the latter part of our observation period in their <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> access ratios and their <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> application, <abbr class="spell">SEIE</abbr> use, and employment rates. Applications for <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> services among young <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients in 2019, for example, ranged across states from 0.5 percent (New Hampshire) to 7.9 percent (North Dakota). In 2019, if all states had <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> application rates similar to the state at the 90<sup>th</sup> percentile, an additional 22,000 young <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients would have applied for <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> services. In other words, <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> agencies would have received 72 percent more applications from this group (and additional potential <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> reimbursement for their associated costs).</p>
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<p>Although access to <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> emerged and <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> service use increased after <abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr>, did they lead to better employment outcomes? Our descriptive findings cannot answer that question, but hint at a positive relationship. First, increases in <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> access ratios (that is, more access to <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr>)</span> were associated with higher percentages of recipients with any earnings (but not with higher average annual earnings). Second, increases in the rate of recipients with any earnings, along with the amount of annual earnings, were greater for youths aged <span class="nobr">16–17</span> than for other age groups. Third, after <abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr>, the increases in employment rates, annual earnings amounts, and <abbr class="spell">SEIE</abbr> use were larger among states with high <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> access ratios than in states with low <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> access ratios.</p>
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<p>Our findings should be interpreted in light of three limitations. First, our analyses are descriptive. We cannot attribute a causal connection between <abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr> or <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> access ratios and the outcomes for the study population.</p>
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<p>Second, we cannot directly observe student use of <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr>.</span> The <span class="nobr"><abbr class="spell">RSA</abbr>-911</span> Case Service Reports include data on <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> use beginning in 2017, with linkable records only for those who applied for <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> services. Our <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> access ratio, which compares the number of students using <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> with the number of high school students receiving special education services, approximates a young person's access to services. Both numbers have potential biases. <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> agencies may have underreported the number of students using <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr>,</span> particularly in the first reporting years (2017 and 2018) as they adjusted their data management systems to accommodate changes in their reporting to <abbr class="spell">RSA</abbr>; during this time, reporting bias may have been more prominent for some agencies than others. High school students receiving special education services represent a subset of the population affected by <abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr>, excluding college students with disabilities as well as students with disabilities who do not use special education services or who have Rehabilitation Act Section 504 special education plans. The latter group is important for this study, as around <span class="nobr">one-quarter</span> of young <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients do not use special education services (Rupp and others 2005/2006; Wittenburg and Loprest 2007).</p>
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<p>Third, the <span class="nobr"><abbr>COVID</abbr>-19</span> pandemic confounded the final 2 years of our observation period. In addition to its broad effects on public health and economic outcomes, the pandemic suppressed <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> use, earnings, and <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> work incentive use for our sample in 2020 and 2021.</p>
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<p>This study is the first to document the potential influence of <abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr> on a group of youths with disabilities who have substantial employment barriers. After <abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr>, more of these youths applied for <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> services, signed an <abbr class="spell">IPE</abbr> that would allow broader access to services beyond <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr>,</span> and had earnings. Greater <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> availability in a state (as evidenced by its <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> access ratio) was associated with higher rates of signed <abbr class="spell">IPE</abbr>s, employment, and use of Section 301 continuations. These outcomes are expected, as they are the law's intended effects. Two research avenues using these data could explore other aspects of <abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr>'s influence. First, the data could be used to identify the specific connections between young <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients, <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> and <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> service use, and employment outcomes, to understand the effectiveness of <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> and whether its use results in decreased reliance on <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>. Second, analyses could consider differential access to <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> services and outcomes by young people's characteristics, particularly their disability type and race and ethnicity, and the influence of social determinants of health on these relationships.</p>
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<h2 id="appendix">Appendix A</h2>
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<div class="table" id="tableA1">
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<table>
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<caption><span class="tableNumber">Table <span class="nobr">A-1.</span> </span>Differences in <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> engagement, employment, and <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> work incentive use among young <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients after <abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr> enactment, by age group, <span class="nobr">2014–2017</span></caption>
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<colgroup span="1" style="width:16em"></colgroup>
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<colgroup span="1" style="width:7em"></colgroup>
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<colgroup span="2" style="width:4em"></colgroup>
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<colgroup span="1" style="width:4em" class="shaded"></colgroup>
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<colgroup span="2" style="width:4em"></colgroup>
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<colgroup span="1" style="width:4em" class="shaded"></colgroup>
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<colgroup span="2" style="width:4em"></colgroup>
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<colgroup span="1" style="width:4em" class="shaded"></colgroup>
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<colgroup span="2" style="width:4em"></colgroup>
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<colgroup span="1" style="width:4em" class="shaded"></colgroup>
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<thead>
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<tr>
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<th rowspan="2" class="stubHeading" id="c1">Indicator and age</th>
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<th rowspan="2" id="c2">Pre-<abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr>: 2010– 2013 annual average</th>
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<th colspan="3" class="spanner" id="c3">2014</th>
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<th colspan="3" class="spanner" id="c4">2015</th>
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<th colspan="3" class="spanner" id="c5">2016</th>
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<th colspan="3" class="spanner" id="c6">2017</th>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<th id="c7" headers="c3">Adjusted difference</th>
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|
<th id="c8" headers="c3">Standard error</th>
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<th id="c9" headers="c3"><span class="nobr"><i>p</i>-value</span></th>
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|
<th id="c10" headers="c4">Adjusted difference</th>
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|
<th id="c11" headers="c4">Standard error</th>
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|
<th id="c12" headers="c4"><span class="nobr"><i>p</i>-value</span></th>
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|
<th id="c13" headers="c5">Adjusted difference</th>
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|
<th id="c14" headers="c5">Standard error</th>
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|
<th id="c15" headers="c5"><span class="nobr"><i>p</i>-value</span></th>
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|
<th id="c16" headers="c6">Adjusted difference</th>
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|
<th id="c17" headers="c6">Standard error</th>
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|
<th id="c18" headers="c6"><span class="nobr"><i>p</i>-value</span></th>
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</tr>
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</thead>
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<tbody>
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<tr>
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<td> </td>
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<th colspan="13" class="panel" id="r1"><abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> engagement (%)</th>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<th class="stub0" id="r2" headers="r1 c1">Applied for <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> services</th>
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<td colspan="13"></td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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|
<th class="stub1" id="r3" headers="r1 r2 c1"><span class="nobr">14–15</span></th>
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|
<td headers="r1 r2 r3 c2">0.23</td>
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|
<td headers="r1 r2 r3 c3 c7">0.12</td>
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|
<td headers="r1 r2 r3 c3 c8">0.05</td>
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|
<td headers="r1 r2 r3 c3 c9">0.03</td>
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|
<td headers="r1 r2 r3 c4 c10">0.25</td>
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|
<td headers="r1 r2 r3 c4 c11">0.14</td>
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|
<td headers="r1 r2 r3 c4 c12">0.09</td>
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|
<td headers="r1 r2 r3 c5 c13">0.27</td>
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|
<td headers="r1 r2 r3 c5 c14">0.08</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r3 c5 c15">0.00</td>
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|
<td headers="r1 r2 r3 c6 c16">0.27</td>
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|
<td headers="r1 r2 r3 c6 c17">0.04</td>
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|
<td headers="r1 r2 r3 c6 c18">0.00</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r4" headers="r1 r2 c1"><span class="nobr">16–17</span></th>
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|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 c2">0.42</td>
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|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 c3 c7">0.62</td>
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|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 c3 c8">0.12</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 c3 c9">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 c4 c10">1.26</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 c4 c11">0.21</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 c4 c12">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 c5 c13">2.13</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 c5 c14">0.30</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 c5 c15">0.00</td>
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|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 c6 c16">2.50</td>
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|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 c6 c17">0.35</td>
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|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 c6 c18">0.00</td>
|
|
</tr>
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<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r5" headers="r1 r2 c1"><span class="nobr">18–21</span></th>
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|
<td headers="r1 r2 r5 c2">0.34</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r5 c3 c7">0.81</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r5 c3 c8">0.09</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r5 c3 c9">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r5 c4 c10">1.94</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r5 c4 c11">0.20</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r5 c4 c12">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r5 c5 c13">4.03</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r5 c5 c14">0.36</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r5 c5 c15">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r5 c6 c16">5.67</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r5 c6 c17">0.41</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r5 c6 c18">0.00</td>
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|
</tr>
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<tr>
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|
<th class="stub1" id="r6" headers="r1 r2 c1"><span class="nobr">22–24</span></th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r6 c2">0.03</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r6 c3 c7">0.28</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r6 c3 c8">0.04</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r6 c3 c9">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r6 c4 c10">0.67</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r6 c4 c11">0.07</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r6 c4 c12">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r6 c5 c13">1.68</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r6 c5 c14">0.14</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r6 c5 c15">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r6 c6 c16">3.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r6 c6 c17">0.23</td>
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|
<td headers="r1 r2 r6 c6 c18">0.00</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<th class="stub0" id="r7" headers="r1 c1">Signed an <abbr class="spell">IPE</abbr></th>
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<td colspan="13"></td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r8" headers="r1 r7 c1"><span class="nobr">14–15</span></th>
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|
<td headers="r1 r7 r8 c2">0.18</td>
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|
<td headers="r1 r7 r8 c3 c7">0.05</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r8 c3 c8">0.01</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r8 c3 c9">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r8 c4 c10">0.10</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r8 c4 c11">0.04</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r8 c4 c12">0.01</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r8 c5 c13">0.18</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r8 c5 c14">0.06</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r8 c5 c15">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r8 c6 c16">0.18</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r8 c6 c17">0.03</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r8 c6 c18">0.00</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r9" headers="r1 r7 c1"><span class="nobr">16–17</span></th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r9 c2">0.19</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r9 c3 c7">0.21</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r9 c3 c8">0.04</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r9 c3 c9">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r9 c4 c10">0.50</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r9 c4 c11">0.09</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r9 c4 c12">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r9 c5 c13">1.09</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r9 c5 c14">0.17</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r9 c5 c15">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r9 c6 c16">1.61</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r9 c6 c17">0.28</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r9 c6 c18">0.00</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r10" headers="r1 r7 c1"><span class="nobr">18–21</span></th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r10 c2">0.14</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r10 c3 c7">0.46</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r10 c3 c8">0.06</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r10 c3 c9">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r10 c4 c10">1.17</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r10 c4 c11">0.13</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r10 c4 c12">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r10 c5 c13">2.88</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r10 c5 c14">0.27</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r10 c5 c15">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r10 c6 c16">5.51</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r10 c6 c17">0.46</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r10 c6 c18">0.00</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r11" headers="r1 r7 c1"><span class="nobr">22–24</span></th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r11 c2">-0.05</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r11 c3 c7">0.19</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r11 c3 c8">0.03</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r11 c3 c9">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r11 c4 c10">0.53</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r11 c4 c11">0.07</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r11 c4 c12">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r11 c5 c13">1.42</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r11 c5 c14">0.13</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r11 c5 c15">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r11 c6 c16">3.36</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r11 c6 c17">0.31</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r11 c6 c18">0.00</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<th colspan="13" class="panel" id="r12">Employment</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r13" headers="r12 c1">Percentage with any earnings</th>
|
|
<td colspan="13"></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r14" headers="r12 r13 c1"><span class="nobr">14–15</span></th>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r14 c2">0.84</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r14 c3 c7">0.24</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r14 c3 c8">0.05</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r14 c3 c9">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r14 c4 c10">0.56</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r14 c4 c11">0.10</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r14 c4 c12">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r14 c5 c13">0.89</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r14 c5 c14">0.10</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r14 c5 c15">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r14 c6 c16">0.89</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r14 c6 c17">0.14</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r14 c6 c18">0.00</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r15" headers="r12 r13 c1"><span class="nobr">16–17</span></th>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r15 c2">8.18</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r15 c3 c7">1.70</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r15 c3 c8">0.29</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r15 c3 c9">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r15 c4 c10">3.58</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r15 c4 c11">0.41</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r15 c4 c12">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r15 c5 c13">4.88</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r15 c5 c14">0.42</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r15 c5 c15">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r15 c6 c16">5.24</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r15 c6 c17">0.45</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r15 c6 c18">0.00</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r16" headers="r12 r13 c1"><span class="nobr">18–21</span></th>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r16 c2">22.55</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r16 c3 c7">2.17</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r16 c3 c8">0.24</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r16 c3 c9">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r16 c4 c10">4.02</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r16 c4 c11">0.32</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r16 c4 c12">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r16 c5 c13">5.22</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r16 c5 c14">0.37</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r16 c5 c15">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r16 c6 c16">5.21</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r16 c6 c17">0.43</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r16 c6 c18">0.00</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r17" headers="r12 r13 c1"><span class="nobr">22–24</span></th>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r17 c2">23.17</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r17 c3 c7">2.60</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r17 c3 c8">0.21</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r17 c3 c9">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r17 c4 c10">4.19</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r17 c4 c11">0.27</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r17 c4 c12">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r17 c5 c13">5.10</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r17 c5 c14">0.36</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r17 c5 c15">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r17 c6 c16">4.83</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r17 c6 c17">0.43</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r17 c6 c18">0.00</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r18" headers="r12 c1">Mean annual earnings (2021 $)</th>
|
|
<td colspan="13"></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r19" headers="r12 r18 c1"><span class="nobr">14–15</span></th>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r19 c2">-39.75</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r19 c3 c7">0.58</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r19 c3 c8">1.38</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r19 c3 c9">0.68</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r19 c4 c10">7.37</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r19 c4 c11">2.68</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r19 c4 c12">0.01</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r19 c5 c13">13.92</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r19 c5 c14">3.24</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r19 c5 c15">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r19 c6 c16">15.17</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r19 c6 c17">3.32</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r19 c6 c18">0.00</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r20" headers="r12 r18 c1"><span class="nobr">16–17</span></th>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r20 c2">80.24</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r20 c3 c7">37.09</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r20 c3 c8">5.98</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r20 c3 c9">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r20 c4 c10">88.46</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r20 c4 c11">8.66</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r20 c4 c12">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r20 c5 c13">134.87</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r20 c5 c14">11.02</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r20 c5 c15">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r20 c6 c16">145.45</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r20 c6 c17">11.99</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r20 c6 c18">0.00</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r21" headers="r12 r18 c1"><span class="nobr">18–21</span></th>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r21 c2">580.19</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r21 c3 c7">94.49</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r21 c3 c8">11.14</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r21 c3 c9">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r21 c4 c10">198.57</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r21 c4 c11">16.69</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r21 c4 c12">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r21 c5 c13">271.77</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r21 c5 c14">17.25</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r21 c5 c15">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r21 c6 c16">296.94</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r21 c6 c17">19.15</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r21 c6 c18">0.00</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r22" headers="r12 r18 c1"><span class="nobr">22–24</span></th>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r22 c2">825.34</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r22 c3 c7">160.23</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r22 c3 c8">13.23</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r22 c3 c9">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r22 c4 c10">302.79</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r22 c4 c11">17.14</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r22 c4 c12">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r22 c5 c13">360.52</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r22 c5 c14">21.91</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r22 c5 c15">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r22 c6 c16">360.75</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r22 c6 c17">25.89</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r22 c6 c18">0.00</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<th colspan="13" class="panel" id="r23">Work incentive use (%)</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r24" headers="r23 c1"><abbr class="spell">SEIE</abbr></th>
|
|
<td colspan="13"></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r25" headers="r23 r24 c1"><span class="nobr">14–15</span></th>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r25 c2">0.22</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r25 c3 c7">-0.01</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r25 c3 c8">0.02</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r25 c3 c9">0.48</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r25 c4 c10">0.03</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r25 c4 c11">0.03</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r25 c4 c12">0.28</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r25 c5 c13">0.08</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r25 c5 c14">0.04</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r25 c5 c15">0.05</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r25 c6 c16">0.07</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r25 c6 c17">0.04</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r25 c6 c18">0.07</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r26" headers="r23 r24 c1"><span class="nobr">16–17</span></th>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r26 c2">2.14</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r26 c3 c7">0.18</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r26 c3 c8">0.09</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r26 c3 c9">0.04</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r26 c4 c10">0.53</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r26 c4 c11">0.13</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r26 c4 c12">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r26 c5 c13">0.85</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r26 c5 c14">0.16</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r26 c5 c15">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r26 c6 c16">0.93</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r26 c6 c17">0.17</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r26 c6 c18">0.00</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r27" headers="r23 r24 c1"><span class="nobr">18–21</span></th>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r27 c2">3.61</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r27 c3 c7">-0.14</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r27 c3 c8">0.06</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r27 c3 c9">0.02</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r27 c4 c10">0.12</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r27 c4 c11">0.09</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r27 c4 c12">0.21</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r27 c5 c13">0.51</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r27 c5 c14">0.14</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r27 c5 c15">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r27 c6 c16">0.62</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r27 c6 c17">0.14</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r27 c6 c18">0.00</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r28" headers="r23 r24 c1"><span class="nobr">22–24</span></th>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r28 c2">0.62</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r28 c3 c7">-0.01</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r28 c3 c8">0.02</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r28 c3 c9">0.68</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r28 c4 c10">-0.02</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r28 c4 c11">0.02</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r28 c4 c12">0.49</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r28 c5 c13">0.03</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r28 c5 c14">0.02</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r28 c5 c15">0.10</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r28 c6 c16">0.07</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r28 c6 c17">0.03</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r28 c6 c18">0.01</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r29" headers="r23 c1">Section 301 continuation</th>
|
|
<td colspan="13"></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r30" headers="r23 r29 c1"><span class="nobr">14–15</span></th>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r30 c2">-0.07</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r30 c3 c7">-0.01</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r30 c3 c8">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r30 c3 c9">0.03</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r30 c4 c10">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r30 c4 c11">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r30 c4 c12">0.69</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r30 c5 c13">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r30 c5 c14">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r30 c5 c15">0.92</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r30 c6 c16">-0.01</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r30 c6 c17">0.01</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r30 c6 c18">0.14</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r31" headers="r23 r29 c1"><span class="nobr">16–17</span></th>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r31 c2">-0.05</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r31 c3 c7">-0.01</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r31 c3 c8">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r31 c3 c9">0.04</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r31 c4 c10">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r31 c4 c11">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r31 c4 c12">0.99</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r31 c5 c13">0.01</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r31 c5 c14">0.01</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r31 c5 c15">0.13</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r31 c6 c16">0.01</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r31 c6 c17">0.01</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r31 c6 c18">0.16</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r32" headers="r23 r29 c1"><span class="nobr">18–21</span></th>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r32 c2">0.51</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r32 c3 c7">-0.04</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r32 c3 c8">0.06</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r32 c3 c9">0.53</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r32 c4 c10">0.05</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r32 c4 c11">0.06</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r32 c4 c12">0.40</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r32 c5 c13">0.04</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r32 c5 c14">0.05</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r32 c5 c15">0.40</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r32 c6 c16">-0.07</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r32 c6 c17">0.06</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r32 c6 c18">0.22</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r33" headers="r23 r29 c1"><span class="nobr">22–24</span></th>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r33 c2">0.14</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r33 c3 c7">-0.03</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r33 c3 c8">0.02</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r33 c3 c9">0.06</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r33 c4 c10">-0.04</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r33 c4 c11">0.02</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r33 c4 c12">0.05</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r33 c5 c13">-0.04</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r33 c5 c14">0.02</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r33 c5 c15">0.06</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r33 c6 c16">-0.05</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r33 c6 c17">0.02</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r33 c6 c18">0.02</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tbody>
|
|
<tfoot>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="firstNote" colspan="14">SOURCE: Authors' calculations based on <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> and Department of Education administrative data.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="lastNote" colspan="14">NOTES: Results are for six separate regressions. All values are regression-adjusted.
|
|
<div class="newNote">Estimates based on very low underlying values may be negative after regression adjustment.</div>
|
|
<div class="newNote">All models control for fixed state effects and individual characteristics.</div>
|
|
<div class="newNote">Standard errors are clustered at the state level.</div>
|
|
<div class="newNote">Observations = 10,811,541.</div>
|
|
</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tfoot>
|
|
</table>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<div class="table" id="tableA2">
|
|
<table>
|
|
<caption><span class="tableNumber">Table <span class="nobr">A-2.</span> </span>Differences in <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> engagement, employment, and <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> work incentive use among young <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients after <abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr> enactment, by age group, <span class="nobr">2018–2021</span></caption>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:16em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:7em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="2" style="width:4em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:4em" class="shaded"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="2" style="width:4em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:4em" class="shaded"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="2" style="width:4em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:4em" class="shaded"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="2" style="width:4em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:4em" class="shaded"></colgroup>
|
|
<thead>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th rowspan="2" class="stubHeading" id="c1">Indicator and age</th>
|
|
<th rowspan="2" id="c2">Pre-<abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr>: 2010– 2013 annual average</th>
|
|
<th colspan="3" class="spanner" id="c3">2018</th>
|
|
<th colspan="3" class="spanner" id="c4">2019</th>
|
|
<th colspan="3" class="spanner" id="c5">2020</th>
|
|
<th colspan="3" class="spanner" id="c6">2021</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th id="c7" headers="c3">Adjusted difference</th>
|
|
<th id="c8" headers="c3">Standard error</th>
|
|
<th id="c9" headers="c3"><span class="nobr"><i>p</i>-value</span></th>
|
|
<th id="c10" headers="c4">Adjusted difference</th>
|
|
<th id="c11" headers="c4">Standard error</th>
|
|
<th id="c12" headers="c4"><span class="nobr"><i>p</i>-value</span></th>
|
|
<th id="c13" headers="c5">Adjusted difference</th>
|
|
<th id="c14" headers="c5">Standard error</th>
|
|
<th id="c15" headers="c5"><span class="nobr"><i>p</i>-value</span></th>
|
|
<th id="c16" headers="c6">Adjusted difference</th>
|
|
<th id="c17" headers="c6">Standard error</th>
|
|
<th id="c18" headers="c6"><span class="nobr"><i>p</i>-value</span></th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</thead>
|
|
<tbody>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<th colspan="13" class="panel" id="r1"><abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> engagement (%)</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r2" headers="r1 c1">Applied for <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> services</th>
|
|
<td colspan="13"></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r3" headers="r1 r2 c1"><span class="nobr">14–15</span></th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r3 c2">0.23</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r3 c3 c7">0.27</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r3 c3 c8">0.07</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r3 c3 c9">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r3 c4 c10">0.33</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r3 c4 c11">0.09</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r3 c4 c12">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r3 c5 c13">0.19</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r3 c5 c14">0.05</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r3 c5 c15">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r3 c6 c16">0.21</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r3 c6 c17">0.05</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r3 c6 c18">0.00</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r4" headers="r1 r2 c1"><span class="nobr">16–17</span></th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 c2">0.42</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 c3 c7">2.36</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 c3 c8">0.35</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 c3 c9">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 c4 c10">2.39</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 c4 c11">0.40</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 c4 c12">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 c5 c13">1.21</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 c5 c14">0.22</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 c5 c15">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 c6 c16">1.36</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 c6 c17">0.21</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 c6 c18">0.00</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r5" headers="r1 r2 c1"><span class="nobr">18–21</span></th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r5 c2">0.34</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r5 c3 c7">5.85</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r5 c3 c8">0.46</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r5 c3 c9">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r5 c4 c10">5.68</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r5 c4 c11">0.45</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r5 c4 c12">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r5 c5 c13">3.34</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r5 c5 c14">0.31</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r5 c5 c15">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r5 c6 c16">3.78</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r5 c6 c17">0.32</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r5 c6 c18">0.00</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r6" headers="r1 r2 c1"><span class="nobr">22–24</span></th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r6 c2">0.03</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r6 c3 c7">3.24</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r6 c3 c8">0.21</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r6 c3 c9">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r6 c4 c10">3.20</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r6 c4 c11">0.21</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r6 c4 c12">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r6 c5 c13">2.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r6 c5 c14">0.16</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r6 c5 c15">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r6 c6 c16">2.28</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r6 c6 c17">0.18</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r6 c6 c18">0.00</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r7" headers="r1 c1">Signed an <abbr class="spell">IPE</abbr></th>
|
|
<td colspan="13"></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r8" headers="r1 r7 c1"><span class="nobr">14–15</span></th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r8 c2">0.18</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r8 c3 c7">0.19</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r8 c3 c8">0.04</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r8 c3 c9">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r8 c4 c10">0.21</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r8 c4 c11">0.05</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r8 c4 c12">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r8 c5 c13">0.17</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r8 c5 c14">0.04</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r8 c5 c15">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r8 c6 c16">0.18</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r8 c6 c17">0.04</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r8 c6 c18">0.00</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r9" headers="r1 r7 c1"><span class="nobr">16–17</span></th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r9 c2">0.19</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r9 c3 c7">1.58</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r9 c3 c8">0.26</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r9 c3 c9">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r9 c4 c10">1.69</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r9 c4 c11">0.31</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r9 c4 c12">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r9 c5 c13">1.17</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r9 c5 c14">0.24</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r9 c5 c15">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r9 c6 c16">1.02</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r9 c6 c17">0.17</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r9 c6 c18">0.00</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r10" headers="r1 r7 c1"><span class="nobr">18–21</span></th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r10 c2">0.14</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r10 c3 c7">5.87</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r10 c3 c8">0.54</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r10 c3 c9">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r10 c4 c10">5.57</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r10 c4 c11">0.49</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r10 c4 c12">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r10 c5 c13">3.47</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r10 c5 c14">0.34</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r10 c5 c15">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r10 c6 c16">3.07</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r10 c6 c17">0.27</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r10 c6 c18">0.00</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r11" headers="r1 r7 c1"><span class="nobr">22–24</span></th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r11 c2">-0.05</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r11 c3 c7">3.70</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r11 c3 c8">0.33</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r11 c3 c9">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r11 c4 c10">3.27</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r11 c4 c11">0.24</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r11 c4 c12">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r11 c5 c13">1.84</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r11 c5 c14">0.15</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r11 c5 c15">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r11 c6 c16">1.82</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r11 c6 c17">0.14</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r11 c6 c18">0.00</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<th colspan="13" class="panel" id="r12">Employment</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r13" headers="r12 c1">Percentage with any earnings</th>
|
|
<td colspan="13"></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r14" headers="r12 r13 c1"><span class="nobr">14–15</span></th>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r14 c2">0.84</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r14 c3 c7">0.91</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r14 c3 c8">0.13</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r14 c3 c9">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r14 c4 c10">0.98</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r14 c4 c11">0.24</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r14 c4 c12">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r14 c5 c13">0.28</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r14 c5 c14">0.25</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r14 c5 c15">0.27</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r14 c6 c16">1.60</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r14 c6 c17">0.29</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r14 c6 c18">0.00</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r15" headers="r12 r13 c1"><span class="nobr">16–17</span></th>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r15 c2">8.18</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r15 c3 c7">6.14</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r15 c3 c8">0.58</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r15 c3 c9">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r15 c4 c10">6.60</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r15 c4 c11">0.68</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r15 c4 c12">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r15 c5 c13">3.69</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r15 c5 c14">0.96</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r15 c5 c15">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r15 c6 c16">8.42</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r15 c6 c17">1.06</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r15 c6 c18">0.00</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r16" headers="r12 r13 c1"><span class="nobr">18–21</span></th>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r16 c2">22.55</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r16 c3 c7">5.60</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r16 c3 c8">0.46</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r16 c3 c9">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r16 c4 c10">6.07</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r16 c4 c11">0.52</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r16 c4 c12">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r16 c5 c13">2.98</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r16 c5 c14">0.86</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r16 c5 c15">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r16 c6 c16">5.95</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r16 c6 c17">1.26</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r16 c6 c18">0.00</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r17" headers="r12 r13 c1"><span class="nobr">22–24</span></th>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r17 c2">23.17</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r17 c3 c7">4.59</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r17 c3 c8">0.50</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r17 c3 c9">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r17 c4 c10">4.55</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r17 c4 c11">0.51</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r17 c4 c12">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r17 c5 c13">1.97</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r17 c5 c14">0.60</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r17 c5 c15">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r17 c6 c16">2.34</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r17 c6 c17">0.95</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r13 r17 c6 c18">0.02</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r18" headers="r12 c1">Mean annual earnings (2021 $)</th>
|
|
<td colspan="13"></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r19" headers="r12 r18 c1"><span class="nobr">14–15</span></th>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r19 c2">-39.75</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r19 c3 c7">14.87</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r19 c3 c8">3.79</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r19 c3 c9">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r19 c4 c10">17.65</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r19 c4 c11">4.50</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r19 c4 c12">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r19 c5 c13">12.98</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r19 c5 c14">4.14</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r19 c5 c15">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r19 c6 c16">33.76</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r19 c6 c17">4.57</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r19 c6 c18">0.00</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r20" headers="r12 r18 c1"><span class="nobr">16–17</span></th>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r20 c2">80.24</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r20 c3 c7">175.88</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r20 c3 c8">13.10</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r20 c3 c9">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r20 c4 c10">201.50</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r20 c4 c11">15.57</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r20 c4 c12">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r20 c5 c13">174.66</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r20 c5 c14">18.02</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r20 c5 c15">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r20 c6 c16">326.95</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r20 c6 c17">23.27</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r20 c6 c18">0.00</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r21" headers="r12 r18 c1"><span class="nobr">18–21</span></th>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r21 c2">580.19</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r21 c3 c7">340.77</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r21 c3 c8">22.31</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r21 c3 c9">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r21 c4 c10">398.62</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r21 c4 c11">23.04</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r21 c4 c12">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r21 c5 c13">372.45</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r21 c5 c14">29.46</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r21 c5 c15">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r21 c6 c16">636.50</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r21 c6 c17">44.68</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r21 c6 c18">0.00</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r22" headers="r12 r18 c1"><span class="nobr">22–24</span></th>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r22 c2">825.34</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r22 c3 c7">375.74</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r22 c3 c8">27.51</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r22 c3 c9">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r22 c4 c10">413.59</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r22 c4 c11">28.89</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r22 c4 c12">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r22 c5 c13">252.34</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r22 c5 c14">29.41</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r22 c5 c15">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r22 c6 c16">464.72</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r22 c6 c17">40.98</td>
|
|
<td headers="r12 r18 r22 c6 c18">0.00</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<th colspan="13" class="panel" id="r23">Work incentive use (%)</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r24" headers="r23 c1"><abbr class="spell">SEIE</abbr></th>
|
|
<td colspan="13"></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r25" headers="r23 r24 c1"><span class="nobr">14–15</span></th>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r25 c2">0.22</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r25 c3 c7">0.03</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r25 c3 c8">0.04</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r25 c3 c9">0.49</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r25 c4 c10">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r25 c4 c11">0.04</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r25 c4 c12">0.92</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r25 c5 c13">-0.12</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r25 c5 c14">0.05</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r25 c5 c15">0.02</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r25 c6 c16">-0.14</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r25 c6 c17">0.05</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r25 c6 c18">0.01</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r26" headers="r23 r24 c1"><span class="nobr">16–17</span></th>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r26 c2">2.14</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r26 c3 c7">0.91</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r26 c3 c8">0.20</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r26 c3 c9">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r26 c4 c10">0.79</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r26 c4 c11">0.20</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r26 c4 c12">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r26 c5 c13">-0.29</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r26 c5 c14">0.19</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r26 c5 c15">0.13</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r26 c6 c16">-1.22</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r26 c6 c17">0.21</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r26 c6 c18">0.00</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r27" headers="r23 r24 c1"><span class="nobr">18–21</span></th>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r27 c2">3.61</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r27 c3 c7">0.65</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r27 c3 c8">0.17</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r27 c3 c9">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r27 c4 c10">0.54</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r27 c4 c11">0.16</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r27 c4 c12">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r27 c5 c13">-0.49</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r27 c5 c14">0.20</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r27 c5 c15">0.02</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r27 c6 c16">-1.31</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r27 c6 c17">0.24</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r27 c6 c18">0.00</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r28" headers="r23 r24 c1"><span class="nobr">22–24</span></th>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r28 c2">0.62</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r28 c3 c7">0.06</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r28 c3 c8">0.02</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r28 c3 c9">0.02</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r28 c4 c10">0.08</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r28 c4 c11">0.03</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r28 c4 c12">0.01</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r28 c5 c13">0.04</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r28 c5 c14">0.03</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r28 c5 c15">0.19</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r28 c6 c16">-0.14</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r28 c6 c17">0.05</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r24 r28 c6 c18">0.01</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r29" headers="r23 c1">Section 301 continuation</th>
|
|
<td colspan="13"></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r30" headers="r23 r29 c1"><span class="nobr">14–15</span></th>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r30 c2">-0.07</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r30 c3 c7">-0.02</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r30 c3 c8">0.01</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r30 c3 c9">0.02</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r30 c4 c10">-0.02</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r30 c4 c11">0.01</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r30 c4 c12">0.02</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r30 c5 c13">-0.02</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r30 c5 c14">0.01</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r30 c5 c15">0.01</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r30 c6 c16">-0.03</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r30 c6 c17">0.01</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r30 c6 c18">0.01</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r31" headers="r23 r29 c1"><span class="nobr">16–17</span></th>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r31 c2">-0.05</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r31 c3 c7">0.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r31 c3 c8">0.01</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r31 c3 c9">0.65</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r31 c4 c10">-0.01</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r31 c4 c11">0.01</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r31 c4 c12">0.04</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r31 c5 c13">-0.02</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r31 c5 c14">0.01</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r31 c5 c15">0.01</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r31 c6 c16">-0.03</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r31 c6 c17">0.01</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r31 c6 c18">0.01</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r32" headers="r23 r29 c1"><span class="nobr">18–21</span></th>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r32 c2">0.51</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r32 c3 c7">-0.14</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r32 c3 c8">0.09</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r32 c3 c9">0.11</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r32 c4 c10">-0.21</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r32 c4 c11">0.10</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r32 c4 c12">0.04</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r32 c5 c13">-0.32</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r32 c5 c14">0.12</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r32 c5 c15">0.01</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r32 c6 c16">-0.36</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r32 c6 c17">0.13</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r32 c6 c18">0.01</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r33" headers="r23 r29 c1"><span class="nobr">22–24</span></th>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r33 c2">0.14</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r33 c3 c7">-0.05</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r33 c3 c8">0.02</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r33 c3 c9">0.03</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r33 c4 c10">-0.06</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r33 c4 c11">0.03</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r33 c4 c12">0.03</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r33 c5 c13">-0.05</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r33 c5 c14">0.03</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r33 c5 c15">0.06</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r33 c6 c16">-0.05</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r33 c6 c17">0.03</td>
|
|
<td headers="r23 r29 r33 c6 c18">0.05</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tbody>
|
|
<tfoot>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="firstNote" colspan="14">SOURCE: Authors' calculations based on <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> and Department of Education administrative data.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="lastNote" colspan="14">NOTES: Results are for six separate regressions. All values are regression-adjusted.
|
|
<div class="newNote">Estimates based on very low underlying values may be negative after regression adjustment.</div>
|
|
<div class="newNote">All models control for fixed state effects and individual characteristics.</div>
|
|
<div class="newNote">Standard errors are clustered at the state level.</div>
|
|
<div class="newNote">Observations = 10,811,541.</div>
|
|
</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tfoot>
|
|
</table>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<div id="notes">
|
|
<h2>Notes</h2>
|
|
<p> <a href="#mt1" id="mn1">1</a> Investments in <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> for students varied at the state level and changed over the years after <abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr> enactment.</p>
|
|
<p> <a href="#mt2" id="mn2">2</a> For youths younger than 18, the <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> program has specific disability-related eligibility criteria related to marked and severe functional limitations. On reaching age 18, a recipient's <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> eligibility is redetermined using adult disability-related eligibility criteria, which are based on the person's ability to perform substantial gainful activity (Hemmeter, Kauff, and Wittenburg 2009; <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> 2022). The rules for parental income deeming (to establish resource eligibility) also change at age 18; as a result, youths with severe disabilities who were not eligible for <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> payments before age 18 because of income and asset restrictions may become eligible at age 18 (Hemmeter 2015).</p>
|
|
<p> <a href="#mt3" id="mn3">3</a> The <abbr>PROMISE</abbr> demonstration may have enabled <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> agencies in the participating states to enhance their <span class="nobr">pre-<abbr class="spell">ETS</abbr></span> offerings. Because the <abbr>PROMISE</abbr> operation period partially overlaps our study period, we test for this hypothesis by comparing states that participated in <abbr>PROMISE</abbr> or <abbr>ASPIRE</abbr> with all other states.</p>
|
|
<p> <a href="#mt4" id="mn4">4</a> Our results and conclusions remain unchanged when we consider the original earnings values, although point estimates vary. This robustness check confirms that our results are not driven by the top 1 percent of earnings values in the sample.</p>
|
|
<p> <a href="#mt5" id="mn5">5</a> The <a href="#appendix">appendix</a> tables present the regression estimates for the values shown in <a href="#chart4">Chart 4</a>.</p>
|
|
<p> <a href="#mt6" id="mn6">6</a> We did not exclude youths younger than 18 from the study sample when using linear probability models to estimate the use of work incentives. We obtained negative estimates of the adjusted means of Section 301 continuation use for youths younger than 18. Because the policy focuses on youths aged 18 or older, the number of younger people using Section 301 continuations is small and these estimates do not support meaningful interpretation.</p>
|
|
<p> <a href="#mt7" id="mn7">7</a> The results of the sensitivity analyses are available upon request (<a href="mailto:IMusse@mathematica-mpr.com">IMusse@mathematica-mpr.com</a>).</p>
|
|
<p> <a href="#mt8" id="mn8">8</a> It may be that the number of cessations resulting from <span class="nobr">age-18</span> redeterminations has decreased or that youths whose payments ceased are appealing their redetermination decisions. In the latter case, youths would use alternative avenues of payment continuation during the appeal.</p>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<div id="references">
|
|
<h2>References</h2>
|
|
<p>Awsumb, Jessica M., Fabricio E. Balcazar, and Joanna M. Keel. 2019. “Youth with Disabilities: Are Vocational Rehabilitation Services Improving Employment Outcomes?” <i>Journal of Vocational Rehabilitation</i> 52(1): <span class="nobr">61–73.</span> <a href="https://doi.org/10.3233/jvr-191060">https://doi.org/10.3233/<abbr class="spell">jvr</abbr>-191060</a>.</p>
|
|
<p>Awsumb, Jessica M., Erik W. Carter, Michele A. Schutz, and Elise D. McMillan. 2020. “Perspectives of Pre-Employment Transition Services Providers on Preparing Youth with Disabilities for Employment.” <i>Journal of Vocational Rehabilitation</i> 53(2): <span class="nobr">205–218.</span> <a href="https://doi.org/10.3233/JVR-201097">https://doi.org/10.3233/<abbr class="spell">JVR</abbr>-201097</a>.</p>
|
|
<p>Bromley, Katherine W., Kara Hirano, Angus Kittelman, Valerie L. Mazzotti, and Connor McCroskey. 2022. “Barriers to Work-Based Learning Experiences: A Mixed Methods Study of Perceptions from the Field.” <i>Journal of Vocational Rehabilitation</i> 56(1): <span class="nobr">17–27.</span><a href="https://doi.org/10.3233/JVR-211169">https://doi.org/10.3233/<abbr class="spell">JVR</abbr>-211169</a>.</p>
|
|
<p>Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2024. “Economic News Release. Persons with a Disability: Labor Force Characteristics. Table 1. Employment Status of the Civilian Noninstitutional Population by Disability Status and Selected Characteristics, 2023 Annual Averages.” <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/disabl.t01.htm">https://www.bls.gov/news.release/disabl.t01.htm</a>.</p>
|
|
<p>Carlson, Sarah R., James R. Thompson, and Jessica Monahan. 2020. “An Analysis of State Re-Employment Transition Services Policies.” <i>Journal of Vocational Rehabilitation</i> 52(1): <span class="nobr">43–59.</span></p>
|
|
<p>Carter, Erik W., Jessica M. Awsumb, Michele A. Schutz, and Elise D. McMillan. 2021. “Preparing Youth for the World of Work: Educator Perspectives on Pre-Employment Transition Services.” <i>Career Development and Transition for Exceptional Individuals</i> 44(3): <span class="nobr">161–173.</span><a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/2165143420938663">https://doi.org/10.1177/2165143420938663</a>.</p>
|
|
<p>Dean, David, John Pepper, Robert Schmidt, and Steven Stern. 2019. “The Effects of Youth Transition Programs on Labor Market Outcomes of Youth with Disabilities.” <i>Economics of Education Review</i> 68: <span class="nobr">68–88.</span><a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ECONEDUREV.2018.11.006">https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ECONEDUREV.2018.11.006</a>.</p>
|
|
<p>Department of Education. 2020. “The State Vocational Rehabilitation Services Program Before and After Enactment of the Workforce Innovation and Opportunity Act in 2014.” Washington, <abbr class="spell">DC</abbr>: Department of Education, <abbr class="spell">RSA</abbr>. <a href="https://rsa.ed.gov/sites/default/files/publications/state-of-vr-program-after-wioa.pdf">https://rsa.ed.gov/sites/default/files/publications/state-of-vr-program-after-wioa.pdf</a>.</p>
|
|
<p>———. 2022. “The Data Reality: Setting the Stage for Change and Success.” Washington, <abbr class="spell">DC</abbr>: Department of Education, <abbr class="spell">RSA</abbr>. <a href="https://rsa.ed.gov/whats-new/csavr-fall-2022-conference">https://rsa.ed.gov/whats-new/csavr-fall-2022-conference</a>.</p>
|
|
<p>Department of Labor. 2014. “Workforce Innovation and Opportunity Act.” Washington, <abbr class="spell">DC</abbr>: Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration. <a href="https://www.dol.gov/agencies/eta/wioa">https://www.dol.gov/agencies/eta/wioa</a>.</p>
|
|
<p>Dragoo, Kyrie E. 2024. <i>The Individuals with Disabilities Education Act (<abbr>IDEA</abbr>), Part B: Key Statutory and Regulatory Provisions.</i> <abbr class="spell">CRS</abbr> Report 41833. Washington, <abbr class="spell">DC</abbr>: Congressional Research Service. <a href="https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R41833">https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R41833</a>.</p>
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<p>Fabian, Ellen, Debra Neubert, and Richard Luecking. 2018. “State <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> Agency Counselors' Perceptions of Their Role in Implementing Transition Services Under <abbr class="spell">WIOA</abbr>.” <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> and Youth Research Brief. College Park, <abbr title="Maryland">MD</abbr>: University of Maryland Rehabilitation Research and Training Center on <abbr class="spell">VR</abbr> Practices and Youth. <a href="https://www.transcen.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/10.27.2018_Study4_ResearchBrief_StateVRAgencyCounselorsPerceptions.pdf">https://www.transcen.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/10.27.2018_Study4_ResearchBrief_StateVRAgencyCounselorsPerceptions.pdf</a>.</p>
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<p>Flood, Sarah, Miriam King, Renae Rodgers, Steven Ruggles, J. Robert Warren, Daniel Backman, Annie Chen, Grace Cooper, Stephanie Richards, Megan Schouweiler, and Michael Westberry. 2023. “Integrated Public Use Microdata Series, Current Population Survey: Version 11.0 [dataset].” Minneapolis, <abbr title="Minnesota">MN</abbr>: <abbr>IPUMS</abbr>. <a href="https://doi.org/10.18128/D030.V11.0">https://doi.org/10.18128/D030.V11.0</a>.</p>
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<p>Foley, Susan, Heike Boeltzig-Brown, Ngai Kwan, Melissa Alford, Neil McNeil, Allison Taylor, and Shahrzad Sajadi. 2022. <i>Final Evaluation Report Transition Pathways Services.</i> Boston, <abbr title="Massachusetts">MA</abbr>: Massachusetts Rehabilitation Commission.</p>
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<p>Fraker, Thomas, Arif Mamun, Todd Honeycutt, Allison Thompkins, and Erin Jacobs Valentine. 2014. <i>Final Report on the Youth Transition Demonstration Evaluation.</i> Washington, <abbr class="spell">DC</abbr>: Mathematica Policy Research. <a href="https://www.mathematica.org/publications/final-report-on-the-youth-transition-demonstration-evaluation">https://www.mathematica.org/publications/final-report-on-the-youth-transition-demonstration-evaluation</a>.</p>
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<p>Government Accountability Office. 2017. <i>Supplemental Security Income: <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> Could Strengthen Its Efforts to Encourage Employment for Transition-Age Youth.</i> <span class="nobr"><abbr class="spell">GAO</abbr>-17-485.</span> Washington, <abbr class="spell">DC</abbr>: <abbr class="spell">GAO</abbr>. <a href="https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-17-485">https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-17-485</a>.</p>
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<p>———. 2021. <i>Supplemental Security Income: <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> Faces Ongoing Challenges with Work Incentives and Improper Payments.</i> Testimony Before the Subcommittee on Social Security, Pensions, and Family Policy, Committee on Finance, United States Senate. <span class="nobr"><abbr class="spell">GAO</abbr>-21-105419.</span> Washington, <abbr class="spell">DC</abbr>: <abbr class="spell">GAO</abbr>. <a href="https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-21-105419">https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-21-105419</a>.</p>
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<p>Hartman, Ellie, Amanda Schlegelmilch, Matthew Roskowski, Catherine A. Anderson, and Timothy N. Tansey. 2019. “Early Findings from the Wisconsin <abbr>PROMISE</abbr> Project: Implications for Policy and Practice.” <i>Journal of Vocational Rehabilitation</i> 51(2): <span class="nobr">167–181.</span><a href="https://doi.org/10.3233/JVR-191036">https://doi.org/10.3233/<abbr class="spell">JVR</abbr>-191036</a>.</p>
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<p>Hemmeter, Jeffrey. 2015. “<a href="/policy/docs/ssb/v75n3/v75n3p35.html">Supplemental Security Income Program Entry at Age 18 and Entrants' Subsequent Earnings</a>.” <i>Social Security Bulletin</i> 75(3): <span class="nobr">35–53.</span></p>
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<p>Hemmeter Jeffrey, Jacqueline Kauff, and David Wittenburg. 2009. “Changing Circumstances: Experiences of Child <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> Recipients Before and After Their <span class="nobr">Age-18</span> Redetermination for Adult Benefits.” <i>Journal of Vocational Rehabilitation</i> 30(3): <span class="nobr">201–221.</span></p>
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<p>Hoffman, Denise, Jeff Hemmeter, and Michelle Stegman Bailey. 2018. “The Relationship Between Youth Services and Adult Outcomes Among Former Child <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> Recipients.” <i>Journal of Vocational Rehabilitation</i> 48(2): <span class="nobr">233–247.</span><a href="https://doi.org/10.3233/JVR-180927">https://doi.org/10.3233/<abbr class="spell">JVR</abbr>-180927</a>.</p>
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<p>Honeycutt, Todd, Frank Martin, and David Wittenburg. 2017. “Transitions and Vocational Rehabilitation Success: Tracking Outcomes for Different Types of Youth.” <i>Journal of Vocational Rehabilitation</i> 46(2): <span class="nobr">137–148.</span><a href="https://doi.org/10.3233/JVR-160850">https://doi.org/10.3233/<abbr class="spell">JVR</abbr>-160850</a>.</p>
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<p>Livermore, Gina, Todd Honeycutt, Arif Mamun, and Jacqueline Kauff. 2019. “Insights About the Transition System for <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> Youth from the National Evaluation of Promoting Readiness of Minors in <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> (<abbr>PROMISE</abbr>).” <i>Journal of Vocational Rehabilitation</i> 52(1): <span class="nobr">1–17.</span><a href="https://doi.org/10.3233/jvr-191056">https://doi.org/10.3233/<abbr class="spell">jvr</abbr>-191056</a>.</p>
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<p>Luecking, Richard G., Ellen S. Fabian, Kara Contreary, Todd C. Honeycutt, and Debra Martin Luecking. 2018. “Vocational Rehabilitation Outcomes for Students Participating in a Model Transition Program.” <i>Rehabilitation Counseling Bulletin</i> 61(3): <span class="nobr">154–163.</span><a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0034355217713167">https://doi.org/10.1177/0034355217713167</a>.</p>
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<p>Mamun, Arif, Ankita Patnaik, Michael Levere, Gina Livermore, Todd Honeycutt, Jaqueline Kauff, Karen Katz, AnnaMaria McCutcheon, Joseph Mastrianni, and Brittney Gionfriddo. 2019. <i>Promoting Readiness of Minors in <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> (<abbr>PROMISE</abbr>) Evaluation: Interim Services and Impact Report.</i> Washington, <abbr class="spell">DC</abbr>: Mathematica, 2019. <a href="https://www.mathematica.org/publications/promoting-readiness-of-minors-is-ssi-promise-evaluation-interim-services-and-impact-report">https://www.mathematica.org/publications/promoting-readiness-of-minors-is-ssi-promise-evaluation-interim-services-and-impact-report</a>.</p>
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<p>Mann, David, Kathleen Feeney, Todd Honeycutt, and Marlena Luhr. 2021. <i>Way2Work Maryland Demonstration: Impacts 24 Months After Enrollment.</i> Princeton, <abbr title="New Jersey">NJ</abbr>: Mathematica. <a href="https://www.mathematica.org/publications/way2work-maryland-demonstration-impacts-24-months-after-enrollment">https://www.mathematica.org/publications/way2work-maryland-demonstration-impacts-24-months-after-enrollment</a>.</p>
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<p>Mathematica. 2023. <i>Disability Analysis File 2021 (<abbr class="spell">DAF</abbr>21) Documentation: Data from January 1994 Through December 2021. Volume 8: <abbr class="spell">DAF</abbr>21 Construction Workflow Charts and Task Tables.</i> Washington, <abbr class="spell">DC</abbr>: Mathematica. <a href="/disabilityresearch/documents/daf/V08-DAF21-Construction-Workflow-Charts-and-Task-Tables.pdf">https://www.ssa.gov/disabilityresearch/documents/daf/V08-DAF21-Construction-Workflow-Charts-and-Task-Tables.pdf</a>. </p>
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<p>Osmani, Kimberly J., Teresa K. DeBacker, Howard M. Crowson, and Kendra L. Williams-Diehm. 2022. “Effects of Work Experiences on the Post-School Employment Outcomes of Youth with Disabilities: A Study of One State Vocational Rehabilitation Agency's Transition Program.” <i>Journal of Vocational Rehabilitation</i> 56(2): <span class="nobr">177–191.</span><a href="https://doi.org/10.3233/JVR-221181">https://doi.org/10.3233/<abbr class="spell">JVR</abbr>-221181</a>.</p>
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<p>Patnaik, Ankita, Stacy Dale, Monica Farid, Amal Harrati, Anna Hill, Todd Honeycutt, Karen Katz, Gina Livermore, Isabel Musse, Liz Potamites, and Purvi Sevak. 2022. <i>Promoting Readiness of Minors in Supplemental Security Income (<abbr>PROMISE</abbr>): Youth and Family Outcomes Five Years After Enrollment.</i> Washington, <abbr class="spell">DC</abbr>: Mathematica. <a href="https://www.mathematica.org/publications/promoting-readiness-of-minors-in-supplemental-security-income-promise-youth-and-family-outcomes-five">https://www.mathematica.org/publications/promoting-readiness-of-minors-in-supplemental-security-income-promise-youth-and-family-outcomes-five</a>.</p>
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<p>Rupp, Kalman, Paul S. Davies, Chad Newcomb, Howard Iams, Carrie Becker, Shanti Mulpuru, Stephen Ressler, Kathleen Romig, and Baylor Miller. 2005/2006. “<a href="/policy/docs/ssb/v66n2/v66n2p21.html">A Profile of Children with Disabilities Receiving <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>: Highlights from the National Survey of <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> Children and Families</a>.” <i>Social Security Bulletin</i> 66(2): <span class="nobr">21–48.</span></p>
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<p>Schutz, Michele A., Jessica M. Awsumb, Erik W. Carter, and Elise D. McMillan. 2022. “Parent Perspectives on Pre-Employment Transition Services for Youth With Disabilities.” <i>Rehabilitation Counseling Bulletin</i> 65(4): <span class="nobr">266–278.</span><a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0034355221993542">https://doi.org/10.1177/0034355221993542</a>.</p>
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<p>Sevak, Purvi, Kathleen Feeney, Todd Honeycutt, and Emily Peterson. 2021. <i>Linking Learning to Careers Demonstration: Impacts 24 Months After Enrollment.</i> Princeton, <abbr title="New Jersey">NJ</abbr>: Mathematica. <a href="https://www.mathematica.org/publications/linking-learning-to-careers-demonstration-impacts-24-months-after-enrollment">https://www.mathematica.org/publications/linking-learning-to-careers-demonstration-<span class="nobr">impacts-24</span>-months-after-enrollment</a>.</p>
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<p>Siwach, Garima, Deeza-Mae Smith, Marlous De Milliano, Dajun Lin, Dong Hoon Lee, and Michelle Yin. 2021. <i>Evaluation of the Maine Transition Work-Based Learning Project: Final Evaluation Report.</i> Arlington, <abbr title="Virginia">VA</abbr>: American Institutes for Research. <a href="https://sites.northwestern.edu/risei/2021/09/01/example/">https://sites.northwestern.edu/risei/2021/09/01/example/</a>.</p>
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<p>[<abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr>] Social Security Administration. 2022. <i>2022 Annual Report of the Supplemental Security Income Program.</i> Baltimore, <abbr title="Maryland">MD</abbr>: <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr>. <a href="/OACT/ssir/SSI22/ssi2022.pdf">https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/ssir/SSI22/ssi2022.pdf</a>.</p>
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<p>———. 2023. “Student Earned Income Exclusion for <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>.” <a href="/oact/cola/studentEIE.html">https://www.ssa.gov/oact/cola/studentEIE.html</a>.</p>
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<p>———. 2024. <i>Red Book: A Guide to Work Incentives and Employment Supports for Persons Who Have a Disability Under the Social Security Disability Insurance (<abbr class="spell">SSDI</abbr>) and Supplemental Security Income (<abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>) Programs.</i> Washington, <abbr class="spell">DC</abbr>: <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr>. <a href="/redbook/index.html">https://www.ssa.gov/redbook/index.html</a>.</p>
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<p>———. <abbr title="no date">n.d.</abbr> “Ticket to Work: Cost Reimbursement Program.” <a href="https://yourtickettowork.ssa.gov/state-vr-agencies/vr-cost-reimbursement.html">https://yourtickettowork.ssa.gov/state-vr-agencies/vr-cost-reimbursement.html</a>.</p>
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<p>Urdapilleta, Oswaldo, Burhan Ogut, Norma Gavin, Linda Long-Bellil, Sherry Campanelli, Steve Fink, and Peter Travisano. 2020. <i><abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> Youth Employment Evidence.</i> Washington, <abbr class="spell">DC</abbr>: Summit Consulting, <abbr class="spell">LLC</abbr>. <a href="/disabilityresearch/documents/SSA_SSI_Youth_Employment_Final_Report-delivered.pdf">https://www.ssa.gov/disabilityresearch/documents/SSA_SSI_Youth_Employment_Final_Report-delivered.pdf</a>.</p>
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<p>Wittenburg, David C., and Pamela J. Loprest. 2007. “Early Transition Experiences of Transition-Age Child <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> Recipients: New Evidence from the National Survey of Children and Families.” <i>Journal of Disability Policy Studies</i> 18(3): <span class="nobr">176–187.</span></p>
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<p>Yin, Michelle, Garima Siwach, and Dajun Lin. 2023. “Vocational Rehabilitation Services and Labor Market Outcomes for Transition-Age Youth with Disabilities in Maine.” <i>Journal of Policy Analysis and Management</i> 42(1): <span class="nobr">166–197.</span> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22446">https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22446</a>.</p>
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