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<title>Longitudinal Patterns of Medicaid and Medicare Coverage Among Disability Cash Benefit Awardees</title>
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<h1 itemprop="headline">Longitudinal Patterns of Medicaid and Medicare Coverage Among Disability Cash Benefit Awardees</h1>
<div id="hByline">by <span itemprop="author">Kalman Rupp and Gerald&nbsp;F. Riley</span><br>Social Security Bulletin, <abbr title="Volume">Vol.</abbr>&nbsp;72, <abbr title="Number">No.</abbr>&nbsp;3, 2012 (released August 2012)</div>
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<p id="synopsis" itemprop="description">This article explores the role of the Social Security Disability Insurance (<abbr class="spell">DI</abbr>) and Supplemental Security Income (<abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>) cash benefit programs in providing access to public health insurance coverage among working-aged people with disabilities, using a sample of administrative records spanning 84&nbsp;months. We find that complex longitudinal interactions between <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> eligibility determine access to and timing of Medicare and Medicaid coverage. <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> plays an important role in providing a pathway to Medicaid coverage for many low-income individuals during the <span class="nobr">29-month</span> combined <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> and Medicare waiting periods, when Medicare coverage is not available. After Medicare eligibility kicks in, public health insurance coverage is virtually complete among awardees with some <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> involvement. Medicaid coverage continues at or above 90&nbsp;percent after 2&nbsp;years for <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only awardees. Many people who exit <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> retain their Medicaid coverage, but the gap in coverage between stayers and those who leave <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> increases over time.</p>
<hr />
<div class="eightypercent">
<p>Kalman Rupp is a senior economist with the Division of Policy Evaluation, Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, Office of Retirement and Disability Policy, Social Security Administration. Gerald&nbsp;F. Riley is a senior researcher in the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Innovation, Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.</p>
<p><i>Acknowledgments:</i> We appreciate the expert assistance of Francoise Becker and Charles Herboldsheimer for generating and analyzing the data files used in this article. Numerous colleagues at the Social Security Administration and the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services have been helpful with their review and comments. We are especially thankful for thoughtful suggestions from Paul Davies. Eric French provided useful discussant comments on an earlier version of the article at the 2011 Annual Meetings of the Allied Social Sciences Association. </p>
<p>Contents of this publication are <a href="/policy/accessibility.html">not copyrighted</a>; any items may be reprinted, but citation of the <i>Social Security Bulletin</i> as the source is requested. The findings and conclusions presented in the <i>Bulletin</i> are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the Social Security Administration or the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.</p>
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</div>
<h2>Introduction</h2>
<div class="abbrtable">
<table role="presentation">
<caption>Selected Abbreviations</caption>
<tr>
<td><abbr class="spell">CMS</abbr></td>
<td>Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><abbr class="spell">DI</abbr></td>
<td>Disability Insurance</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr></td>
<td>Social Security Administration</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr></td>
<td>Supplemental Security Income</td>
</tr>
</table>
</div>
<p>In the United States (<abbr class="spell">US</abbr>), four public programs form the pillars of the safety net for working-aged people with substantial disabilities: Social Security Disability Insurance (<abbr class="spell">DI</abbr>), Supplemental Security Income (<abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>), Medicare, and Medicaid. The interactions among the four programs are complex and little understood. They are important because access to cash benefits and health insurance coverage is essential to the well-being of people with severe disabilities. In addition, the availability of those benefits, or lack thereof, creates complex economic incentives with implications for labor markets, government budgets, and the functioning of the overall economy.<sup><a href="#mn1" id="mt1">1</a></sup> To our knowledge, this study is the first effort to link individual-level data from all four of these major <abbr class="spell">US</abbr> social safety net programs&mdash;<abbr class="spell">DI</abbr>, <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>, Medicare, and Medicaid&mdash;and to analyze longitudinal patterns of interactions among them in a unified analytic framework.</p>
<p><abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> is a social insurance program available to people who have not reached the Social Security full retirement age (currently age&nbsp;66), who meet categorical eligibility criteria as disabled, and who have sufficient recent work experience to qualify as &quot;<abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> insured&quot; prior to the start of receiving cash benefits. <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> entitlement begins after a <span class="nobr">5-month</span> waiting period following the onset of disability. <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> is a means-tested federal/state cash assistance program&mdash;with optional state supplements&mdash;that provides cash benefits to elderly people aged&nbsp;65 or older and to nonelderly people deemed disabled based on criteria identical to the rules used in the <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> program. Unlike <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr>, <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> does not require prior work experience to qualify. Because <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> is a welfare program of last resort for a person determined disabled, onset is presumed to be the month immediately prior to application. In that sense, there is no waiting period for <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>.</p>
<p>Medicare is a federal social insurance program that provides health insurance coverage to most elderly people aged&nbsp;65 or older, to <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> beneficiaries after a <span class="nobr">24-month</span> waiting period, and to individuals with end-stage renal disease (Box&nbsp;1).<sup><a href="#mn2" id="mt2">2</a></sup> Most <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> beneficiaries who are no longer eligible to receive cash benefits because of work will continue to receive at least 93 consecutive months of Hospital Insurance (Part&nbsp;A&mdash;no premium payment requirement); Supplemental Medical Insurance (Part&nbsp;B), if enrolled; and Prescription Drug Coverage (Part&nbsp;D), if enrolled.<sup><a href="#mn3" id="mt3">3</a></sup></p>
<div class="textBox2">
<div class="title align-left">Box&nbsp;1.<br>Medicare program highlights</div>
<p class="noindent"><b>Medicare</b> is a health insurance program authorized under the Social Security Act for&mdash;</p>
<ul>
<li>People aged&nbsp;65 or older</li>
<li>People with Social Security Disability Insurance (<abbr class="spell">DI</abbr>), usually after a <span class="nobr">24-month</span> waiting period on the <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> rolls</li>
<li>People of all ages with end-stage renal disease</li>
</ul>
<p class="noindent">People whose <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> benefits are discontinued because of work but who still have disabling impairments are provided continued Medicare coverage for at least 93&nbsp;months after the first month of no <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> benefits.</p>
<p class="noindent topmargin15"><b>Medicare Part&nbsp;A</b> covers inpatient care in hospitals and skilled nursing facilities, as well as home health and hospice services. Part&nbsp;A coverage is provided to <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> beneficiaries premium free.</p>
<p class="noindent"><b>Medicare Part&nbsp;B</b> covers outpatient care, including services of physicians, therapists, clinics, hospital outpatient departments, clinical laboratories, and so forth. Enrollment in Part&nbsp;B is voluntary and requires payment of a monthly premium. Most Medicare beneficiaries enroll in Part&nbsp;B.</p>
<p class="noindent"><b>Medicare Part&nbsp;C</b> is the Medicare Advantage (<abbr class="spell">MA</abbr>) program, under which Medicare benefits are provided by managed care contractors. Enrollment in the <abbr class="spell">MA</abbr> program is voluntary.</p>
<p class="noindent"><b>Medicare Part&nbsp;D</b>, the prescription drug program, began in 2006 and provides prescription drug coverage. Enrollment in Part&nbsp;D is voluntary and requires payment of a monthly premium. Low-income subsidies are available for persons with low income and assets. Over 70&nbsp;percent of <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> beneficiaries with Medicare were enrolled in Part&nbsp;D in 2009.</p>
<p class="noindent">For more information on the Medicare program, see <a href="https://www.medicare.gov/">http://www.medicare.gov</a>.</p>
</div>
<p>Medicaid is jointly funded by federal and state governments and provides health insurance coverage to several target populations with low income and assets, including elderly people aged&nbsp;65 or older, people younger than age&nbsp;65 with disabilities (including most <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> eligibles), and others (Box&nbsp;2).<sup><a href="#mn4" id="mt4">4</a></sup> Categories of people covered by Medicaid vary from state to state, and there is no waiting period for Medicaid coverage to begin. The Medicaid means test for disabled people is similar, but not identical, to the <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> means test and may vary by state. In some states, individuals are determined eligible for Medicaid based on less restrictive financial eligibility criteria than what is required for <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>, while a few other states do have Medicaid eligibility rules that are more stringent. In most states, <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients are categorically eligible for Medicaid. Some states provide automatic Medicaid enrollment; others require separate application. Importantly, Medicaid beneficiaries who are no longer eligible for <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> payments may be eligible to continue Medicaid coverage if they still meet the disability requirement, need Medicaid benefits to continue to work, and satisfy some additional requirements.<sup><a href="#mn5" id="mt5">5</a></sup> The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (<abbr class="spell">CMS</abbr>) administers Medicare, while Medicaid is administered by the state, with some federal oversight by <abbr class="spell">CMS</abbr>.</p>
<div class="textBox2">
<div class="title align-left">Box&nbsp;2.<br>Medicaid program highlights</div>
<p class="noindent"><b>Program features</b></p>
<p class="noindent">Medicaid provides health insurance to various population groups characterized by low income and assets, including certain individuals with severe disabilities. The program is jointly funded by federal and state governments and is administered by the states. Medicaid covers acute care, pharmacy, and long-term-care services, including nursing home stays. Some Medicaid eligibles may have coverage that is restricted to certain categories of services. There is no premium for Medicaid coverage, but there can be limited cost sharing for some services.</p>
<p class="noindent topmargin15"><b><abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> and Medicaid</b></p>
<p class="noindent">Most disabled individuals who are eligible for Supplemental Security Income (<abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>) payments qualify for Medicaid, but eligibility criteria vary by state. There is no waiting period for Medicaid coverage. <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients typically qualify for &quot;full&quot; coverage. Those who have earnings too high for an <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> cash payment may be eligible for continued Medicaid under Section&nbsp;<span class="nobr">1619(b)</span> of the Social Security Act if they continue to meet the disability screen and some other criteria.</p>
<p class="noindent topmargin15">For more information on the Medicaid program, see <a href="https://www.medicaid.gov">http://www.medicaid.gov</a>.</p>
</div>
<p>It is important to note that individuals younger than age&nbsp;65 with severe disabilities sometimes have access to Medicare or Medicaid coverage without eligibility for <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> or <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> benefits. For example, Medicaid coverage is available to disabled individuals without <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> if they qualify for Medicaid through medically needy programs or if they are institutionalized or have a need for care under home and community-based services waivers, various state programs, and other means (<abbr class="spell">CMS</abbr>&nbsp;2011).</p>
<p>The focus of this article is on interactions between the Social Security Administration's (<abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr>'s) two disability programs&mdash;<abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>&mdash;and the two public health insurance programs&mdash;Medicare and Medicaid. A recent article by Rupp and Riley (2011) demonstrated the importance of longitudinal interactions between <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr>'s disability programs, but did not explicitly consider the public health insurance connection. This piece focuses on the ways in which complex longitudinal interactions between the two disability cash benefits programs affect Medicaid coverage, especially during the <span class="nobr">24-month</span> Medicare waiting period<sup><a href="#mn6" id="mt6">6</a></sup> of the <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> program (Riley 2004, 2006; Livermore, Stapleton, and Claypool 2010). Access to Medicare among disabled people is an important concern in recent policy discussions of Medicare and for assessing the potential of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act to remedy some of the perceived problems (Cubanski and Neuman 2010). In that context, it is important that we assess overall public health insurance coverage considering both Medicare and Medicaid. The next section of the article outlines our research focus. We then discuss the data and methodology, followed by our analysis of the empirical results. Finally, we close with a summary of our conclusions and issues for future&nbsp;research.</p>
<h2>Research Focus</h2>
<p>Our fundamental purpose for conducting this analysis is to demonstrate how longitudinal patterns of <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> benefit eligibility affect access to and timing of Medicaid and Medicare coverage among disabled people. It is important to determine whether severely disabled individuals are eligible for <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> or <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> benefits or both because the two programs provide dramatically different paths toward public health insurance coverage. <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> provides Medicare coverage only after a <span class="nobr">24-month</span> waiting period (with some exceptions<sup><a href="#mn7" id="mt7">7</a></sup>), which is in addition to the <span class="nobr">5-month</span> waiting period for <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> benefit eligibility. <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> usually provides access to Medicaid, but not Medicare coverage.</p>
<p>In contrast to Medicare, Medicaid eligibility can be retroactive up to 3&nbsp;months prior to application. Some people may be eligible for both <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> cash benefits on a monthly basis, resulting in dual eligibility for both Medicare and Medicaid in many cases. In such situations, Medicare is the primary health insurer and Medicaid covers beneficiary cost sharing and certain services (primarily nursing home care and other <span class="nobr">long-term</span> care services) that Medicare does not cover. Consequently, eligibility for Medicaid and Medicare benefits depends in part on the timing and sequence of eligibility for <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> and/or <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> benefits. There are some clear longitudinal patterns of <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> program participation as a result of interactions between <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> benefit eligibility rules, particularly the <span class="nobr">5-month</span> waiting period for <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> and the counting of Social Security as unearned income in the <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> program. Those common patterns of disability program participation in turn affect patterns of entry into and exit from the public health insurance programs.</p>
<p>Rupp and Riley (2011) identified and classified the following five longitudinal patterns that are responsible for about 98&nbsp;percent of all first-ever disability awards for <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr>, <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>, or both: <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr>-only; <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only; <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr>-only transitioning to joint <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> benefit eligibility; <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only transitioning to <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr>-only serial benefit eligibility; and <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only transitioning to joint <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> benefit eligibility. We use a refined version of that classification. Our refinement arises from a longer follow-up period available for the present study, allowing us to observe additional <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr>-only to joint <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> benefit eligibility transitions. According to our classification, <i><abbr class="spell">DI</abbr>-only benefit eligibility</i> means that the person first became eligible to receive <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> benefits and never gained <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> payment eligibility over the <span class="nobr">72-month,</span> postaward observation window starting with the first month of <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> benefit eligibility. <i><abbr class="spell">DI</abbr>-only transitioning to joint <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> benefit eligibility</i> means that the person started as <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr>-only during the month of award and became eligible for an <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> payment at least for 1 of the postaward months observed. <i><abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only benefit eligibility</i> means that the person first became eligible to receive <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> payments and never gained <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> benefit eligibility over the postaward observation window. <i><abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only transitioning to <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr>-only serial benefit eligibility</i> means that the person started as an <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only eligible during the first month and lost <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> payment eligibility when <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> benefit eligibility began after the <span class="nobr">5-month</span> <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> waiting period, as a result of the Social Security benefit offset in the <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> income test. <i><abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only transitioning to joint <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> benefit eligibility</i> is similar to serial eligibility in that <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> kicks in after the <span class="nobr">5-month</span> waiting period, but differs because the beneficiary maintains his or her <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> payment eligibility afterward at least for 1&nbsp;month. In those situations, the <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> benefit does not completely offset the <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> payment the person was entitled to prior to the first month of <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> eligibility.</p>
<p>The five longitudinal patterns of disability benefit eligibility provide different pathways to Medicaid and Medicare. Specifically, we predict the following clear patterns of relationships between disability benefit eligibility and Medicaid coverage:</p>
<ul>
<li>The <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr>-only longitudinal pattern of benefit eligibility is expected to be associated with generally low levels of Medicaid coverage.</li>
<li>The <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr>-only transitioning to joint <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> benefit eligibility is expected to be associated with a monotonic increase in Medicaid coverage arising from <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> entry, reflecting loss of income or spend-down of assets among some people who originally failed the <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> means test.</li>
<li>The <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only longitudinal pattern of benefit eligibility is expected to be associated with relatively high Medicaid coverage over time.</li>
<li>The pattern of <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only transitioning to <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr>-only serial benefit eligibility is expected to display a peak of Medicaid coverage around the end of the <span class="nobr">5-month</span> <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> waiting period, with a sharp decline to follow the loss of <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> payment eligibility.</li>
<li>The pattern of <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only transitioning to joint <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> benefit eligibility is expected to display a similar increase up to the end of the <span class="nobr">5-month</span> <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> waiting period, but with no sharp decline afterward.</li>
</ul>
<p>With respect to Medicare coverage, we expect virtually complete coverage for all but the <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only group after the end of the <span class="nobr">24-month</span> Medicare waiting period. Finally, we expect that exits to nonbeneficiary status will affect Medicaid coverage, especially early exits from <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> eligibility status, while exits from the <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> program after 2&nbsp;years are expected to have virtually no effect on Medicare coverage. The anticipated Medicaid trend is the result of early exits from <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> that usually occur because of the loss of <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> income eligibility arising from the <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> benefit being countable income. Later exits are more likely to be work related, and, as previously noted, allow for continued Medicaid coverage according to Section&nbsp;<span class="nobr">1619(b)</span> of the Social Security Act.<sup><a href="#mn8" id="mt8">8</a></sup> Exits from the <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> program after the Medicare waiting period are rare, and as we discussed earlier, in many cases Medicare eligibility is protected for a <span class="nobr">93-month</span> period after <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> exit.<sup><a href="#mn9" id="mt9">9</a></sup> For this analysis, we followed a cohort of new entrants to <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> and tracked their patterns of participation in the Medicare and Medicaid programs.</p>
<h2>Data Sources and Methodology</h2>
<p>This study is based on the linkage of <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">CMS</abbr> administrative records and uses descriptive tabulations and multiple regression. The following sections provide more detail on the data and methodology.</p>
<h3>Data</h3>
<p>Our study is based on (1)&nbsp;Social Security administrative records covering the universe of <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> beneficiaries and (2)&nbsp;<abbr class="spell">CMS</abbr> records covering the universe of Medicare and Medicaid enrollees. The use of administrative records for this analysis is particularly important because survey data are generally of poor quality where participation in the four programs of interest is concerned, and small sample sizes also severely limit the feasibility of analyzing the month-to-month dynamics that are so central to the research questions of interest in this article.<sup><a href="#mn10" id="mt10">10</a></sup></p>
<p>We first created a 10&nbsp;percent sample of disability beneficiaries from Social Security's Ticket Research File (<abbr class="spell">TRF</abbr>), which is compiled from a variety of Social Security record systems on disability program applicants and awardees. The <abbr class="spell">TRF</abbr> currently contains roughly 20&nbsp;million observations. A description of the <abbr class="spell">TRF</abbr> and the Social Security source files was presented in a previous study (Rupp and Riley 2011). We created a &quot;finder file&quot; of Social Security numbers and basic identifying information from the <abbr class="spell">TRF</abbr>. <abbr class="spell">CMS</abbr> used that finder file to pull enrollment records from the Medicare Enrollment Data Base and the Medicaid Analytic Extract record systems. The <abbr class="spell">CMS</abbr> extract files then were merged with the Social Security records extract. The study sample consisted of first-ever disability program entrants who were alive and aged&nbsp;<span class="nobr">18&ndash;64</span> during the first-ever month of benefit entitlement for either <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr>, <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>, or both sometime in 2000. Notable features of the sample are that it does not include any adults who received <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> disability benefits as a child,<sup><a href="#mn11" id="mt11">11</a></sup> and it does not include any first-ever awardees for <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> or <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> who had a previous enrollment spell in the other program. The subsample of <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> awardees was limited to &quot;primary beneficiaries.&quot; It was designed to exclude two special categories, &quot;disabled adult child&quot; beneficiaries and &quot;disabled <span class="nobr">widow(er)</span>&quot; beneficiaries. Those restrictions assured that we focused on an adult awardee cohort that had its first disability benefit eligibility spell in 2000. This sample design facilitates a clear picture of how disability benefit caseload dynamics strategically affect Medicaid and Medicare eligibility. Our sample of 68,798 observations is identical to the sample used by Rupp and Riley (2011). However, we added Medicaid and Medicare files for each disability awardee at the individual level, covering a period that includes the <span class="nobr">12-month</span> preaward period and a <span class="nobr">72-month</span> follow-up period, starting with the first month of disability benefit eligibility. Table&nbsp;1 provides summary data on demographic,<sup><a href="#mn12" id="mt12">12</a></sup> diagnostic, and programmatic characteristics of our sample.</p>
<div class="table" id="table1">
<table>
<caption><span class="tableNumber">Table&nbsp;1. </span>Selected sample characteristics</caption>
<colgroup span="1" style="width:20em"></colgroup>
<colgroup span="2" style="width:8em"></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="stubHeading" scope="col">Characteristic</th>
<th scope="col">Percent</th>
<th scope="col">Standard error</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="rowgroup">Demographic</th>
<td colspan="2"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Aged <span class="nobr">18&ndash;30</span></th>
<td>9.6</td>
<td>0.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Aged <span class="nobr">46&ndash;64</span></th>
<td>63.0</td>
<td>0.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Women</th>
<td>48.1</td>
<td>0.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub1" scope="row">White, <span class="nobr">non-Hispanic</span> race/ethnicity&nbsp;<sup>a</sup></th>
<td>70.8</td>
<td>0.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Other race/ethnicity&nbsp;<sup>a</sup></th>
<td>27.8</td>
<td>0.2</td>
</tr>
<tr class="topPad1">
<th class="stub0" scope="rowgroup">Most frequent <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> primary diagnoses</th>
<td colspan="2"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Musculoskeletal</th>
<td>25.5</td>
<td>0.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Mental <sup>b</sup></th>
<td>22.6</td>
<td>0.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Circulatory</th>
<td>12.2</td>
<td>0.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Neoplasms</th>
<td>9.2</td>
<td>0.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Nervous</th>
<td>7.9</td>
<td>0.1</td>
</tr>
<tr class="topPad1">
<th class="stub0" scope="rowgroup">Longitudinal pattern of benefit eligibility</th>
<td colspan="2"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub1" scope="row"><abbr class="spell">DI</abbr>-only</th>
<td>60.3</td>
<td>0.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub1" scope="row"><abbr class="spell">DI</abbr>-only to joint <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr></th>
<td>9.6</td>
<td>0.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub1" scope="row"><abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only</th>
<td>15.7</td>
<td>0.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub1" scope="row"><abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only to <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr>-only serial</th>
<td>4.4</td>
<td>0.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub1" scope="row"><abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only to joint <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">DI</abbr></th>
<td>8.1</td>
<td>0.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Any other pattern</th>
<td>1.9</td>
<td>0.1</td>
</tr>
<tr class="topPad1 shaded">
<th class="stub0" scope="rowgroup">N</th>
<td>68,798</td>
<td>.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
<tfoot>
<tr>
<td class="firstNote" colspan="3">SOURCES: Authors' calculations from Social Security and Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services administrative records.</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="note" colspan="3">NOTE: .&nbsp;.&nbsp;. = not applicable.</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="note" colspan="3">a. Variable reflects measurement error, arising from the fact that prior to 1980 the source data file did not contain data by Hispanic ethnicity. As a result, the percentage &quot;White, <span class="nobr">non-Hispanic&quot;</span> reflects upward bias, while the reverse is true for &quot;Other race/ethnicity.&quot; See Scott (1999) for detail on the measurement issue.</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="lastNote" colspan="3">b. Not including intellectual disability.</td>
</tr>
</tfoot>
</table>
</div>
<p>In this study, we measure Medicare coverage by a variable denoting Part&nbsp;A coverage. All <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> beneficiaries who qualify for Medicare are automatically eligible for Part&nbsp;A, while Part&nbsp;B is a matter of choice and comes with a monthly premium for people who do not qualify for Medicaid. Approximately 90&nbsp;percent of Medicare <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> beneficiaries are enrolled in Part&nbsp;B. Our Medicaid enrollment figures refer only to individuals with &quot;full Medicaid&quot; coverage and do not include less than full coverage situations, such as qualified Medicare beneficiaries (<abbr class="spell">QMB</abbr>)&ndash;only and specified low-income Medicare beneficiaries (<abbr class="spell">SLMB</abbr>)&ndash;only who are enrolled in more limited programs for dual eligibles (Box&nbsp;3). This decision was partially motivated by the evolving nature of these other program components. Moreover, these program design changes are unrelated to the key issues of interest in this article.</p>
<div class="textBox2">
<div class="title align-left">Box&nbsp;3.<br>Medicaid and Medicare: Dual eligibility highlights</div>
<p class="noindent"><b>Coverage and funding</b></p>
<p class="noindent">Medicare beneficiaries can qualify for Medicaid coverage if they have limited income and assets. For individuals with Medicare and Medicaid coverage, referred to as dual eligibles, Medicare is the primary payer if a given service is covered by both programs. Medicaid pays for Medicare premiums and cost sharing for persons who are also enrolled in Medicare.</p>
<p class="noindent topmargin15"><b>Dual eligibles with limited Medicaid coverage</b></p>
<p class="noindent">Some dual eligibles have limited Medicaid coverage if their income or assets do not meet the means test to qualify for full Medicaid benefits. For example, those eligible for qualified Medicare beneficiary (<abbr class="spell">QMB</abbr>) benefits receive coverage for Medicare cost sharing requirements (deductibles and coinsurance) and Part&nbsp;B monthly premiums, but not for services not covered by Medicare. Those eligible for special low-income Medicare beneficiary (<abbr class="spell">SLMB</abbr>) benefits receive coverage for Part&nbsp;B monthly premiums, but not for Medicare cost sharing or services not covered by Medicare.</p>
<p class="noindent topmargin15">For more information on dual eligibility, see <a href="https://www.medicaid.gov">http://www.medicaid.gov</a>.</p>
</div>
<h3>Methods</h3>
<p>Our analysis is based on (1)&nbsp;monthly person-level records containing individual characteristics measured at the month of first disability benefit eligibility and (2)&nbsp;time-varying data on <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> benefit eligibility and Medicaid and Medicare coverage. We use health insurance coverage data for 12&nbsp;months prior to first disability award and the subsequent <span class="nobr">72-month</span> period. Much of our analysis is based on detailed monthly trends over the combined 84&nbsp;months of longitudinal data on disability benefit eligibility and Medicaid and Medicare coverage. Our key technique is logistic regression applied to repeated cross-sections of disability awardees.</p>
<h2>Results</h2>
<p>In this section, we present the empirical results pertaining to the relationship between Medicaid and Medicare coverage and longitudinal patterns of disability benefit coverage. That is followed by the analysis of the role of disability program exits in affecting Medicaid coverage and factors affecting persistent Medicaid nonparticipation. Chart&nbsp;1 compares Medicaid coverage for the five longitudinal pattern groups. Appendix <a href="#tableA1">Table&nbsp;<span class="nobr">A-1</span></a> provides more detail at selected time points. The results are generally consistent with our hypotheses and show subgroup differences of substantial magnitude. Medicaid coverage for the <i><abbr class="spell">DI</abbr>-only</i> pattern group is consistently low and shows only a slight upward trend during the first 2&nbsp;years. It remains essentially flat after the end of the Medicare waiting period.</p>
<div class="chartCenter">
<div class="chart700" id="chart1">
<div class="title">Chart&nbsp;1.<br>Percentage of survivors aged&nbsp;<span class="nobr">18&ndash;64</span> with full Medicaid coverage, from 12&nbsp;months before to 72&nbsp;months after disability program entry, by&nbsp;longitudinal pattern group</div>
<div class="scrollChart"><img src="v72n3p19-chart01.gif" alt="Line chart described in narrative text. Appendix Table A-1 provides a more detailed table equivalent." width="700" height="460" /></div>
<div class="onlyNote">SOURCES: Authors' calculations from Social Security and Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services administrative records.</div>
</div>
</div>
<p>As expected, the <i><abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only</i> pattern group has consistently the highest rate of Medicaid coverage. A substantial minority (about 25&nbsp;percent) have been covered by Medicaid 12&nbsp;months prior to the first month of <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> payment eligibility.<sup><a href="#mn13" id="mt13">13</a></sup> Thus, <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> plays no role in establishing Medicaid coverage for that subgroup, although it may help people in the group retain their Medicaid eligibility if they cease to meet criteria for Medicaid coverage for another reason. Medicaid coverage sharply increases around the month of <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> entry, reaching 78&nbsp;percent by month&nbsp;6 and continuing with over 80&nbsp;percent of coverage for most of the remaining months. Much of the remaining roughly <span class="nobr">15&ndash;20</span>&nbsp;percent gap at any month afterward is attributable to <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients who exited for reasons other than death or reaching age&nbsp;65, as we will detail later in the article. The trends for the three longitudinal pattern groups with both <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> involvement are between the <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr>-only and <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only trend lines for Medicaid coverage, but each trend displays a distinct shape consistent with longitudinal interactions between <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>. All three of those groups start at low levels of Medicaid coverage&nbsp;12&nbsp;months prior to disability entry.</p>
<p>Medicaid coverage substantially increases during the months immediately preceding <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> entry and afterward. As expected, <i>serial entrants</i> show a very sharp increase in Medicaid coverage during the 3&nbsp;months prior to <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> entry (the period of Medicaid coverage retroactivity) and shortly afterward, peaking at month 5 with 70&nbsp;percent coverage. However, Medicaid coverage of serial entrants sharply declines during the months immediately following the peak&mdash;when <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> kicks in and <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> eligibility ceases. Thus, <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> coverage during the <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> waiting period is clearly very important for serial entrants, but for many, Medicaid coverage is temporary. Nevertheless, the level of Medicaid coverage is above 30&nbsp;percent for this group until month&nbsp;72, suggesting a more permanent attachment to Medicaid for some.</p>
<p><i><abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> joint entrants</i> show a sharp, but somewhat less spectacular increase in Medicaid coverage around the time <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> eligibility begins until a peak of about 57&nbsp;percent during month&nbsp;6. However, the decline of Medicaid coverage thereafter is more muted, and over 40&nbsp;percent of those entrants are covered by Medicaid even at the end of the observation period. </p>
<p>Finally, <i><abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> entrants with subsequent <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> involvement</i> show a gradual increase in Medicaid coverage during the first 2&nbsp;years, peaking at 56&nbsp;percent around month&nbsp;24. Medicaid coverage stays above 50&nbsp;percent for most of the remainder of our follow-up period. Note that there is a marked increase in Medicaid coverage beginning in month&nbsp;(-5), which corresponds to the beginning of the <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> waiting period, despite the fact that <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> eligibility does not begin until after <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> eligibility. Thus, some of that group of awardees is able to access Medicaid outside of <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>. Those people are categorically disabled during month&nbsp;(-6) according to criteria that are common to both programs, and they may have incomes low enough to meet the Medicaid means test. This may occur in states that have Medicaid financial eligibility criteria that are less restrictive than <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> (Kaiser Commission on Medicaid and the Uninsured&nbsp;2010).</p>
<p>One may ask whether longitudinal patterns continue to be predictive of Medicaid coverage after various characteristics, such as demographics and primary diagnosis of awardees, are controlled for in a multivariate regression framework. The results of that test are shown in Table&nbsp;2. We present estimates from logistic models of Medicaid coverage at various time points before and after the month of award. We assess the association between longitudinal patterns of disability program participation and Medicaid coverage after adjustments for demographic<sup><a href="#mn14" id="mt14">14</a></sup> and diagnostic characteristics. In addition, we include state indicators in the models to control for heterogeneity related to state-level variables. The table presents odds ratios and their estimated precision. The key finding from the &quot;Longitudinal pattern&quot; section of the table is that any involvement with <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> substantially increases the odds of Medicaid coverage. That pattern is consistent with the unadjusted differences we observed in Chart&nbsp;1, and suggests that the striking differences presented in the chart are not artifacts of the association between coverage pattern and demographic or diagnostic variables or state of residence. The multivariate results strengthen the evidence that the link between longitudinal pattern of disability benefit eligibility and Medicaid coverage is an important aspect of access to Medicaid in its own right. The results in Table&nbsp;2 also show that the contrast in Medicaid access compared with the <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr>-only group is strongest for the <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only group for all three time points. Nevertheless, the table also suggests that demographic and diagnostic characteristics also matter, albeit the variation in relative odds is less dramatic.</p>
<div class="table" id="table2">
<table>
<caption><span class="tableNumber">Table&nbsp;2. </span>Results of logistic regressions on factors affecting Medicaid coverage 3&nbsp;months before and 3 and 24&nbsp;months after disability (<abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> and/or <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>) award in&nbsp;2000</caption>
<colgroup span="1" style="width:27em"></colgroup>
<colgroup span="3" style="width:5em"></colgroup>
<colgroup span="3" style="width:5em"></colgroup>
<colgroup span="3" style="width:5em"></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th rowspan="2" class="stubHeading" scope="colgroup">Independent variable</th>
<th colspan="3" class="spanner" scope="colgroup">Model 1: Month -3</th>
<th colspan="3" class="spanner" scope="colgroup">Model 2: Month +3</th>
<th colspan="3" class="spanner" scope="colgroup">Model 3: Month +24</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<th scope="col">Odds ratio</th>
<th scope="col">Standard error</th>
<th scope="col">P &gt; z</th>
<th scope="col">Odds ratio</th>
<th scope="col">Standard error</th>
<th scope="col">P &gt; z</th>
<th scope="col">Odds ratio</th>
<th scope="col">Standard error</th>
<th scope="col">P &gt; z</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="rowgroup">Demographic</th>
<td colspan="9"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Aged <span class="nobr">18&ndash;30</span></th>
<td>2.05</td>
<td>0.09</td>
<td>0.00</td>
<td>1.91</td>
<td>0.07</td>
<td>0.00</td>
<td>2.27</td>
<td>0.09</td>
<td>0.00</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Aged <span class="nobr">31&ndash;45</span></th>
<td>1.91</td>
<td>0.06</td>
<td>0.00</td>
<td>1.56</td>
<td>0.04</td>
<td>0.00</td>
<td>1.62</td>
<td>0.04</td>
<td>0.00</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Aged <span class="nobr">46&ndash;64</span> (reference category)</th>
<td>.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td>.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td>.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td>.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td>.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td>.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td>.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td>.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td>.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Women</th>
<td>1.61</td>
<td>0.04</td>
<td>0.00</td>
<td>1.17</td>
<td>0.03</td>
<td>0.00</td>
<td>1.47</td>
<td>0.03</td>
<td>0.00</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Men (reference category)</th>
<td>.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td>.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td>.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td>.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td>.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td>.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td>.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td>.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td>.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Missing sex</th>
<td>1.38</td>
<td>0.22</td>
<td>0.04</td>
<td>1.26</td>
<td>0.19</td>
<td>0.13</td>
<td>1.77</td>
<td>0.56</td>
<td>0.07</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub1" scope="row">White <span class="nobr">non-Hispanic</span> race/ethnicity&nbsp;<sup>a</sup> (reference category)</th>
<td>.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td>.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td>.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td>.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td>.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td>.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td>.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td>.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td>.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Other race/ethnicity&nbsp;<sup>a</sup></th>
<td>1.42</td>
<td>0.04</td>
<td>0.00</td>
<td>1.30</td>
<td>0.03</td>
<td>0.00</td>
<td>1.47</td>
<td>0.04</td>
<td>0.00</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Missing race/ethnicity&nbsp;<sup>a</sup></th>
<td>0.78</td>
<td>0.09</td>
<td>0.03</td>
<td>0.94</td>
<td>0.10</td>
<td>0.56</td>
<td>0.94</td>
<td>0.10</td>
<td>0.60</td>
</tr>
<tr class="topPad1">
<th class="stub0" scope="rowgroup">Diagnostic</th>
<td colspan="9"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Circulatory</th>
<td>1.57</td>
<td>0.08</td>
<td>0.00</td>
<td>1.69</td>
<td>0.07</td>
<td>0.00</td>
<td>1.38</td>
<td>0.06</td>
<td>0.00</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Congenital</th>
<td>0.52</td>
<td>0.18</td>
<td>0.07</td>
<td>0.96</td>
<td>0.25</td>
<td>0.88</td>
<td>0.81</td>
<td>0.23</td>
<td>0.45</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Digestive</th>
<td>1.47</td>
<td>0.13</td>
<td>0.00</td>
<td>1.73</td>
<td>0.13</td>
<td>0.00</td>
<td>1.47</td>
<td>0.12</td>
<td>0.00</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Endocrine</th>
<td>1.45</td>
<td>0.12</td>
<td>0.00</td>
<td>1.44</td>
<td>0.10</td>
<td>0.00</td>
<td>1.52</td>
<td>0.10</td>
<td>0.00</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Genitourinary</th>
<td>1.58</td>
<td>0.14</td>
<td>0.00</td>
<td>2.79</td>
<td>0.21</td>
<td>0.00</td>
<td>1.49</td>
<td>0.12</td>
<td>0.00</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Infectious and parasitic</th>
<td>1.53</td>
<td>0.14</td>
<td>0.00</td>
<td>2.56</td>
<td>0.21</td>
<td>0.00</td>
<td>1.91</td>
<td>0.16</td>
<td>0.00</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Injuries</th>
<td>1.32</td>
<td>0.10</td>
<td>0.00</td>
<td>1.46</td>
<td>0.09</td>
<td>0.00</td>
<td>1.14</td>
<td>0.07</td>
<td>0.04</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Musculoskeletal (reference category)</th>
<td>.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td>.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td>.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td>.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td>.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td>.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td>.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td>.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td>.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Neoplasms</th>
<td>1.22</td>
<td>0.07</td>
<td>0.00</td>
<td>1.98</td>
<td>0.09</td>
<td>0.00</td>
<td>1.07</td>
<td>0.07</td>
<td>0.28</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Nervous</th>
<td>1.02</td>
<td>0.06</td>
<td>0.71</td>
<td>1.24</td>
<td>0.06</td>
<td>0.00</td>
<td>0.98</td>
<td>0.05</td>
<td>0.67</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Other</th>
<td>1.35</td>
<td>0.21</td>
<td>0.06</td>
<td>1.11</td>
<td>0.16</td>
<td>0.49</td>
<td>0.99</td>
<td>0.14</td>
<td>0.96</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Mental&nbsp;<sup>b</sup></th>
<td>1.35</td>
<td>0.06</td>
<td>0.00</td>
<td>1.40</td>
<td>0.05</td>
<td>0.00</td>
<td>1.34</td>
<td>0.05</td>
<td>0.00</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Respiratory</th>
<td>1.42</td>
<td>0.11</td>
<td>0.00</td>
<td>1.64</td>
<td>0.10</td>
<td>0.00</td>
<td>1.39</td>
<td>0.08</td>
<td>0.00</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Intellectual disability&nbsp;<sup>c</sup></th>
<td>1.07</td>
<td>0.08</td>
<td>0.34</td>
<td>1.25</td>
<td>0.08</td>
<td>0.00</td>
<td>1.36</td>
<td>0.10</td>
<td>0.00</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Missing diagnosis</th>
<td>1.31</td>
<td>0.11</td>
<td>0.00</td>
<td>1.01</td>
<td>0.08</td>
<td>0.95</td>
<td>0.76</td>
<td>0.06</td>
<td>0.00</td>
</tr>
<tr class="topPad1">
<th class="stub0" scope="rowgroup">Longitudinal pattern</th>
<td colspan="9"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub1" scope="row"><abbr class="spell">DI</abbr>-only&nbsp;<sup>d</sup> (reference category)</th>
<td>.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td>.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td>.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td>.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td>.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td>.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td>.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td>.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td>.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub1" scope="row"><abbr class="spell">DI</abbr>-only to joint <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr></th>
<td>3.81</td>
<td>0.16</td>
<td>0.00</td>
<td>5.44</td>
<td>0.20</td>
<td>0.00</td>
<td>10.33</td>
<td>0.35</td>
<td>0.00</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub1" scope="row"><abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only</th>
<td>8.44</td>
<td>0.30</td>
<td>0.00</td>
<td>37.21</td>
<td>1.23</td>
<td>0.00</td>
<td>50.45</td>
<td>1.90</td>
<td>0.00</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub1" scope="row"><abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only to <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr>-only serial</th>
<td>2.77</td>
<td>0.17</td>
<td>0.00</td>
<td>34.31</td>
<td>1.62</td>
<td>0.00</td>
<td>5.23</td>
<td>0.25</td>
<td>0.00</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub1" scope="row"><abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only to joint <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">DI</abbr></th>
<td>3.62</td>
<td>0.17</td>
<td>0.00</td>
<td>15.42</td>
<td>0.57</td>
<td>0.00</td>
<td>10.68</td>
<td>0.39</td>
<td>0.00</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub1" scope="row">State dummies&nbsp;<sup>e</sup> (New York state is reference category)</th>
<td>.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td>.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td>.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td>.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td>.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td>.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td>.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td>.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td>.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
</tr>
<tr class="shaded topPad1">
<th class="stub0" scope="rowgroup">Number of observations</th>
<td colspan="3" class="center">67,690</td>
<td colspan="3" class="center">67,254</td>
<td colspan="3" class="center">62,316</td>
</tr>
<tr class="shaded">
<th class="stub0" scope="rowgroup">Likelihood ratio Chi<sup>2</sup> (77)&nbsp;<sup>f</sup></th>
<td colspan="3" class="center">10,678.33</td>
<td colspan="3" class="center">28,392.11</td>
<td colspan="3" class="center">29,192.76</td>
</tr>
<tr class="shaded">
<th class="stub0" scope="rowgroup">Probability &gt; Chi<sup>2</sup></th>
<td colspan="3" class="center">0.0000</td>
<td colspan="3" class="center">0.0000</td>
<td colspan="3" class="center">0.0000</td>
</tr>
<tr class="shaded">
<th class="stub0" scope="rowgroup">Pseudo R<sup>2</sup></th>
<td colspan="3" class="center">0.2139</td>
<td colspan="3" class="center">0.3652</td>
<td colspan="3" class="center">0.3782</td>
</tr>
<tr class="shaded">
<th class="stub0" scope="rowgroup">Log likelihood</th>
<td colspan="3" class="center">-19,612.65</td>
<td colspan="3" class="center">-24,676.06</td>
<td colspan="3" class="center">-23,997.92</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
<tfoot>
<tr>
<td class="firstNote" colspan="10">SOURCES: Authors' calculations from Social Security and Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services administrative records.</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="note" colspan="10">NOTES: Sample of first-ever disability (<abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> and/or <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>) program entrants in 2000 who were aged <span class="nobr">18&ndash;64</span> during the first month of payment eligibility. &quot;State-only&quot; <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> first awardees are not included. At month&nbsp;+3 and month&nbsp;+24, the sample is limited to survivors younger than age&nbsp;65. &quot;Month&nbsp;1&quot; is defined as first-ever month of positive payment eligibility for program of first award. Immediately preceding that month is &quot;month&nbsp;-1.&quot;
<div class="newNote">.&nbsp;.&nbsp;. = not applicable.</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="note" colspan="10">a. Variable reflects measurement error, arising from the fact that prior to 1980 the source data file did not contain data by Hispanic ethnicity. As a result, the percentage &quot;White, <span class="nobr">non-Hispanic&quot;</span> reflects upward bias, while the reverse is true for &quot;Other race/ethnicity.&quot; See Scott (1999) for detail on the measurement issue.</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="note" colspan="10">b. Not including intellectual disability (formerly known as mental retardation).</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="note" colspan="10">c. Formerly known as mental retardation.</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="note" colspan="10">d. <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr>-only is the reference group. &quot;<abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> simultaneous&quot; entrants and &quot;Other&quot; awardees are included in the multinomial logit model, but results are not presented here.</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="note" colspan="10">e. All states (except New York) and the District of Columbia are included. Puerto Rico may be omitted from some models. A residual category represents <abbr class="spell">US</abbr> territories. </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="lastNote" colspan="10">f. Except model&nbsp;3 where likelihood ratio Chi<sup>2</sup> (78) is applicable.</td>
</tr>
</tfoot>
</table>
</div>
<p>Although Table&nbsp;2 shows factors affecting Medicaid participation at selected time points, a somewhat different question is whether awardees are ever covered by Medicaid during the first 24&nbsp;months after first disability benefit award. After all, Medicaid is the only major public health insurance program potentially available to all but a few awardees during that period.<sup><a href="#mn15" id="mt15">15</a></sup> Chart&nbsp;2 shows the importance of longitudinal patterns from that perspective. The sample frame includes all calendar year 2000 first-ever disability awardees. The dependent variable is Medicaid coverage at least for 1&nbsp;month between months&nbsp;1 and 24 and prior to reaching age&nbsp;65. Medicaid coverage during the first 24&nbsp;months is clearly driven by the presence or absence of <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> involvement. Only 15&nbsp;percent of the <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr>-only pattern group had any involvement with the Medicaid program during the period corresponding to the <span class="nobr">24-month</span> Medicare waiting period. Some Medicaid involvement is almost universal in the <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only group, while all three groups with concurrent involvement are much closer to <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only Medicaid involvement compared with the <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr>-only group.</p>
<div class="chartCenter">
<div class="chart400" id="chart2">
<div class="title">Chart&nbsp;2.<br>Percentage of awardee cohort ever covered by Medicaid during the first 2&nbsp;years starting from the first month of disability benefit eligibility</div>
<div class="scrollChart"><img src="v72n3p19-chart02.gif" alt="Bar chart with tabular version below." width="362" height="210" /></div>
<div class="table altTable"><a class="altToggle" href="">Show as table</a>
<table>
<caption><span class="tableNumber">Table equivalent for Chart&nbsp;2. </span>Percentage of awardee cohort ever covered by Medicaid during the first 2&nbsp;years starting from the first month of disability benefit eligibility</caption>
<colgroup span="1" style="width:15em"></colgroup>
<colgroup span="1" style="width:8em"></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="stubHeading" scope="col">Longitudinal pattern group</th>
<th scope="col">Percent</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><abbr class="spell">DI</abbr>-only</th>
<td>15</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><abbr class="spell">DI</abbr>-only to joint <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr></th>
<td>75</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only</th>
<td>93</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only to <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr>-only serial</th>
<td>82</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only to joint <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">DI</abbr></th>
<td>83</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
<tfoot>
<tr>
<td class="noNotes" colspan="2">&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
</tfoot>
</table>
</div>
<div class="firstNote">SOURCES: Authors' calculations from Social Security and Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services administrative records.</div>
<div class="lastNote">NOTES: Statistics are based on a 10&nbsp;percent sample of all first-ever disability awardees in 2000. Not all sample members were at risk of Medicaid coverage prior to age&nbsp;65 for the full <span class="nobr">24-month</span> observation period. Over 1&nbsp;percent exited the sample because of reaching age&nbsp;65. An additional 8&nbsp;percent died before reaching either age&nbsp;65 or the end of the observation period.</div>
</div>
</div>
<p>Because disability program participation is clearly affected by exits from disability benefit status (as well as reentries), it is worthwhile to look at the relationship between <i>current</i> cash benefit eligibility status at selected time points and Medicaid coverage. Table&nbsp;3 provides that information by longitudinal pattern during month&nbsp;24 and month&nbsp;72. The first time point represents the last month prior to the start of Medicare eligibility for all of the groups with some <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> involvement, while month&nbsp;72 represents the longest time horizon we can use in the current analysis. We highlight a few important findings from this table. First, <i>current</i> <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> involvement (second column) is associated with very high Medicaid coverage for all three pattern groups where <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> involvement is feasible at month&nbsp;24 and month&nbsp;72 (<abbr class="spell">DI</abbr>-only to joint <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>, <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only, and <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only to joint <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">DI</abbr>). The <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only pattern has clearly the highest degree of Medicaid coverage at both time points (90&nbsp;percent at month&nbsp;24 and 95&nbsp;percent at month&nbsp;72). However, differences by pattern category at month&nbsp;72 are very small. Second, while <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr>-only <i>current</i> status (first column) is generally associated with low probabilities of Medicaid coverage, there are substantial differences by pattern. There is a large gap between the rate of Medicaid coverage for the <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr>-only pattern group (less than 10&nbsp;percent) and the other longitudinal pattern groups with <span class="nobr">30&ndash;43</span>&nbsp;percent Medicaid coverage. Current <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr>-only status does not explain those differences. This suggests that many disabled beneficiaries are able to retain Medicaid eligibility after termination of <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> payments. Third, consistent with our expectations, Medicaid coverage is the lowest among people who exited the disability rolls (third column), reflecting the <i>current</i> status of neither <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> nor <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> benefit eligibility. However, the data also show substantial differences by pattern group. Almost half of the people who exited the <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only group by month&nbsp;24 (47&nbsp;percent) are still covered by Medicaid. The corresponding figure is only 6&nbsp;percent for those who exited the <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr>-only group. Thus, longitudinal patterns matter, even after controlling for current benefit eligibility status.</p>
<div class="table" id="table3">
<table>
<caption><span class="tableNumber">Table&nbsp;3. </span>Percentage of people with full Medicaid coverage at selected time points after the first month of benefit eligibility, by longitudinal pattern and benefit eligibility status at months&nbsp;24 and&nbsp;72</caption>
<colgroup span="1" style="width:12em"></colgroup>
<colgroup span="8" style="width:5em"></colgroup>
<colgroup class="shaded" span="1" style="width:6em"></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th rowspan="3" class="stubHeading" id="c1">Longitudinal pattern&nbsp;<sup>a</sup></th>
<th colspan="8" class="spanner" id="c2">Benefit eligibility status during given month</th>
<th rowspan="3" id="c3">Number of observations</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<th colspan="2" class="spanner" id="c4" headers="c2"><abbr class="spell">DI</abbr>-only</th>
<th colspan="2" class="spanner" id="c5" headers="c2"><abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only or both <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr></th>
<th colspan="2" class="spanner" id="c6" headers="c2">Neither</th>
<th colspan="2" class="spanner" id="c7" headers="c2">Total&nbsp;<sup>b</sup></th>
</tr>
<tr>
<th id="c8" headers="c2 c4">Percent</th>
<th id="c9" headers="c2 c4">Standard error</th>
<th id="c10" headers="c2 c5">Percent</th>
<th id="c11" headers="c2 c5">Standard error</th>
<th id="c12" headers="c2 c6">Percent</th>
<th id="c13" headers="c2 c6">Standard error</th>
<th id="c14" headers="c2 c7">Percent</th>
<th id="c15" headers="c2 c7">Standard error</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<th id="r1" class="panel" colspan="9">Percentage with full Medicaid coverage at month&nbsp;24</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" id="r2" headers="r1 c1"><abbr class="spell">DI</abbr>-only</th>
<td headers="r1 r2 c2 c4 c8">9.7</td>
<td headers="r1 r2 c2 c4 c9">0.2</td>
<td headers="r1 r2 c2 c5 c10">.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td headers="r1 r2 c2 c5 c11">.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td headers="r1 r2 c2 c6 c12">6.0</td>
<td headers="r1 r2 c2 c6 c13">1.0</td>
<td headers="r1 r2 c2 c7 c14">9.6</td>
<td headers="r1 r2 c2 c7 c15">0.2</td>
<td headers="r1 r2 c3">37,423</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" id="r3" headers="r1 c1"><abbr class="spell">DI</abbr>-only to joint <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr></th>
<td headers="r1 r3 c2 c4 c8">43.1</td>
<td headers="r1 r3 c2 c4 c9">0.8</td>
<td headers="r1 r3 c2 c5 c10">73.9</td>
<td headers="r1 r3 c2 c5 c11">0.9</td>
<td headers="r1 r3 c2 c6 c12">29.4</td>
<td headers="r1 r3 c2 c6 c13">4.8</td>
<td headers="r1 r3 c2 c7 c14">54.0</td>
<td headers="r1 r3 c2 c7 c15">0.6</td>
<td headers="r1 r3 c3">6,359</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" id="r4" headers="r1 c1"><abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only</th>
<td headers="r1 r4 c2 c4 c8">.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td headers="r1 r4 c2 c4 c9">.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td headers="r1 r4 c2 c5 c10">90.3</td>
<td headers="r1 r4 c2 c5 c11">0.3</td>
<td headers="r1 r4 c2 c6 c12">&nbsp;</td>
<td headers="r1 r4 c2 c6 c13">1.4</td>
<td headers="r1 r4 c2 c7 c14">84.7</td>
<td headers="r1 r4 c2 c7 c15">0.4</td>
<td headers="r1 r4 c3">9,291</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" id="r5" headers="r1 c1"><abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only to <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr>-only serial</th>
<td headers="r1 r5 c2 c4 c8">36.8</td>
<td headers="r1 r5 c2 c4 c9">0.9</td>
<td headers="r1 r5 c2 c5 c10">.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td headers="r1 r5 c2 c5 c11">.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td headers="r1 r5 c2 c6 c12">23.6</td>
<td headers="r1 r5 c2 c6 c13">5.0</td>
<td headers="r1 r5 c2 c7 c14">36.4</td>
<td headers="r1 r5 c2 c7 c15">0.9</td>
<td headers="r1 r5 c3">2,681</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" id="r6" headers="r1 c1"><abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only to joint <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">DI</abbr></th>
<td headers="r1 r6 c2 c4 c8">38.3</td>
<td headers="r1 r6 c2 c4 c9">0.8</td>
<td headers="r1 r6 c2 c5 c10">83.3</td>
<td headers="r1 r6 c2 c5 c11">0.9</td>
<td headers="r1 r6 c2 c6 c12">18.8</td>
<td headers="r1 r6 c2 c6 c13">4.9</td>
<td headers="r1 r6 c2 c7 c14">52.0</td>
<td headers="r1 r6 c2 c7 c15">0.7</td>
<td headers="r1 r6 c3">5,315</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<th id="r7" class="panel" colspan="9">Percentage with full Medicaid coverage at month&nbsp;72</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" id="r8" headers="r7 c1"><abbr class="spell">DI</abbr>-only</th>
<td headers="r7 r8 c2 c4 c8">8.3</td>
<td headers="r7 r8 c2 c4 c9">0.2</td>
<td headers="r7 r8 c2 c5 c10">.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td headers="r7 r8 c2 c5 c11">.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td headers="r7 r8 c2 c6 c12">7.4</td>
<td headers="r7 r8 c2 c6 c13">0.8</td>
<td headers="r7 r8 c2 c7 c14">8.2</td>
<td headers="r7 r8 c2 c7 c15">0.2</td>
<td headers="r7 r8 c3">27,739</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" id="r9" headers="r7 c1"><abbr class="spell">DI</abbr>-only to joint <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr></th>
<td headers="r7 r9 c2 c4 c8">34.0</td>
<td headers="r7 r9 c2 c4 c9">0.8</td>
<td headers="r7 r9 c2 c5 c10">90.5</td>
<td headers="r7 r9 c2 c5 c11">0.8</td>
<td headers="r7 r9 c2 c6 c12">19.7</td>
<td headers="r7 r9 c2 c6 c13">2.4</td>
<td headers="r7 r9 c2 c7 c14">48.6</td>
<td headers="r7 r9 c2 c7 c15">0.7</td>
<td headers="r7 r9 c3">5,557</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" id="r10" headers="r7 c1"><abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only</th>
<td headers="r7 r10 c2 c4 c8">.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td headers="r7 r10 c2 c4 c9">.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td headers="r7 r10 c2 c5 c10">94.6</td>
<td headers="r7 r10 c2 c5 c11">0.3</td>
<td headers="r7 r10 c2 c6 c12">35.9</td>
<td headers="r7 r10 c2 c6 c13">1.2</td>
<td headers="r7 r10 c2 c7 c14">82.1</td>
<td headers="r7 r10 c2 c7 c15">0.5</td>
<td headers="r7 r10 c3">7,382</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" id="r11" headers="r7 c1"><abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only to <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr>-only serial</th>
<td headers="r7 r11 c2 c4 c8">31.3</td>
<td headers="r7 r11 c2 c4 c9">1.1</td>
<td headers="r7 r11 c2 c5 c10">.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td headers="r7 r11 c2 c5 c11">.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td headers="r7 r11 c2 c6 c12">14.9</td>
<td headers="r7 r11 c2 c6 c13">2.7</td>
<td headers="r7 r11 c2 c7 c14">29.9</td>
<td headers="r7 r11 c2 c7 c15">1.0</td>
<td headers="r7 r11 c3">2,045</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" id="r12" headers="r7 c1"><abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only to joint <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">DI</abbr></th>
<td headers="r7 r12 c2 c4 c8">29.6</td>
<td headers="r7 r12 c2 c4 c9">0.8</td>
<td headers="r7 r12 c2 c5 c10">93.6</td>
<td headers="r7 r12 c2 c5 c11">0.8</td>
<td headers="r7 r12 c2 c6 c12">17.4</td>
<td headers="r7 r12 c2 c6 c13">2.4</td>
<td headers="r7 r12 c2 c7 c14">41.6</td>
<td headers="r7 r12 c2 c7 c15">0.7</td>
<td headers="r7 r12 c3">4,509</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
<tfoot>
<tr>
<td class="firstNote" colspan="10">SOURCES: Authors' calculations from Social Security and Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services administrative records.</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="note" colspan="10">NOTE: .&nbsp;.&nbsp;. = not applicable.</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="note" colspan="10">a. For the <span class="nobr">72-month</span> period starting with month of initial disability award.</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="lastNote" colspan="10">b. Includes survivors younger than age&nbsp;65 during given month.</td>
</tr>
</tfoot>
</table>
</div>
<p>While Medicaid coverage is relatively low among people who exited the cash benefit <span class="nobr">program(s)</span> in all longitudinal pattern categories, as a practical matter, nonbeneficiaries form a sizable subgroup <i>only</i> within the <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only longitudinal pattern group. About 13&nbsp;percent of <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only awardees were in nonbeneficiary status at month&nbsp;24 and 21&nbsp;percent at month&nbsp;72. In contrast, the other longitudinal pattern groups had only <span class="nobr">1&ndash;3</span>&nbsp;percent in nonbenefit status at month&nbsp;24 and <span class="nobr">4&ndash;9</span>&nbsp;percent at month&nbsp;72 (authors' calculation). Because of the relative importance of exits to nonbeneficiary status among the <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only group, we present detail on trends in Medicaid coverage for that longitudinal pattern group separately for those who are receiving <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> payments and those who are not at various points in time (Chart&nbsp;3).</p>
<div class="chartCenter">
<div class="chart700" id="chart3">
<div class="title">Chart&nbsp;3.<br>Percentage of survivors younger than age&nbsp;65 with full Medicaid coverage among those aliveat selected time points, by <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> payment eligibility status during given month: <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only awardees</div>
<div class="scrollChart"><img src="v72n3p19-chart03.gif" alt="Bar chart with tabular version below." width="700" height="369" /></div>
<div class="table altTable"><a class="altToggle" href="">Show as table</a>
<table>
<caption><span class="tableNumber">Table equivalent for Chart&nbsp;3. </span>Percentage of survivors younger than age&nbsp;65 with full Medicaid coverage among those aliveat selected time points, by <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> payment eligibility status during given month: <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only awardees</caption>
<colgroup span="1" style="width:10em"></colgroup>
<colgroup span="2" style="width:8em"></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="stubHeading" scope="col">Month since first award (month of award = month&nbsp;1)</th>
<th scope="col">On <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr></th>
<th scope="col">Off <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr></th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row">3</th>
<td>73</td>
<td>50</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row">6</th>
<td>79</td>
<td>54</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row">12</th>
<td>84</td>
<td>50</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row">24</th>
<td>90</td>
<td>47</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row">36</th>
<td>93</td>
<td>44</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row">48</th>
<td>93</td>
<td>40</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row">60</th>
<td>94</td>
<td>39</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row">72</th>
<td>95</td>
<td>36</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
<tfoot>
<tr>
<td class="noNotes" colspan="3">&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
</tfoot>
</table>
</div>
<div class="onlyNote">SOURCES: Authors' calculations from Social Security and Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services administrative records.</div>
</div>
</div>
<p>The data clearly show an upward trend in Medicaid coverage among people who are in <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> program status at the given point in time and a downward trend among those who are not <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> program participants. Both series are affected by duration dependence. Importantly, 95&nbsp;percent of people who are on <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> at month&nbsp;72 are covered by Medicaid. The corresponding figure is 36&nbsp;percent for those who are off <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> at that point. Thus, a large portion of the <span class="nobr">15&ndash;20</span>&nbsp;percent observed Medicaid noncoverage among the <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only group seems to be attributable to those who exited the <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> rolls and did not die or reach age&nbsp;65 by the given month. Members of that group, on average, are expected to have relatively good health. Some may no longer be disabled or they fail to meet the requirements of Section&nbsp;1619b of the Social Security Act for some other reasons.</p>
<p>Chart&nbsp;4 displays overall public health insurance coverage (as measured by Medicaid and/or Medicare coverage) for the five longitudinal pattern groups. Appendix <a href="#tableA2">Table&nbsp;<span class="nobr">A-2</span></a> provides more detail at selected time points. For the period prior to the month of award and the subsequent 2&nbsp;years, the longitudinal pattern group trends are essentially driven by the Medicaid trends we have seen before. Medicare coverage is extremely rare prior to the end of the Medicare waiting period. However, for all but the <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only group, Medicare coverage jumps to 100&nbsp;percent after the end of the combined <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> and Medicare waiting period&mdash;29&nbsp;months from the disability onset.<sup><a href="#mn16" id="mt16">16</a></sup> The temporal patterns of Medicaid and Medicare coverage associated with the five pattern groups provide important evidence for the relevance of longitudinal patterns of disability benefit eligibility in understanding the relative level and composition of public health insurance coverage among disability cash benefit&nbsp;awardees.</p>
<div class="chartCenter">
<div class="chart700" id="chart4">
<div class="title">Chart&nbsp;4.<br>Percentage of survivors aged&nbsp;<span class="nobr">18&ndash;64</span> with Medicare Part&nbsp;A or full Medicaid coverage, from 12&nbsp;months before to 72&nbsp;months after disability program entry, by longitudinal pattern group</div>
<div class="scrollChart"><img src="v72n3p19-chart04.gif" alt="Line chart described in narrative text. Appendix Table A-2 provides a more detailed table equivalent." width="700" height="452" /></div>
<div class="onlyNote">SOURCES: Authors' calculations from Social Security and Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services administrative records.</div>
</div>
</div>
<h2>Conclusions</h2>
<p>Our study is the first-ever effort to link, at the individual level, administrative records data from four of the largest and highly interrelated <abbr class="spell">US</abbr> public safety net programs&mdash;<abbr class="spell">DI</abbr>, <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>, Medicare, and Medicaid&mdash;and to analyze the month-to-month dynamics of interactions among them. The findings demonstrate that longitudinal patterns of disability benefit eligibility are important in explaining public health insurance coverage and display relationships that can be expected based on program rules affecting interactions among the four major federal programs for working-age adults with disabilities. To summarize, we highlight three points here: (1)&nbsp;<abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> involvement (or the lack of) is the principal determinant of the level of public health insurance coverage during a roughly <span class="nobr">2-year</span> period after the first month of first disability benefit coverage for all subgroups; (2)&nbsp;the lead of the <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only group in <i>public</i> health coverage disappears after the first 24&nbsp;months of disability benefit coverage, and in contrast to all of the other longitudinal pattern groups, a small portion stays without either Medicaid or Medicare coverage thereafter; and (3)&nbsp;people who are involved with both the <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> programs at some point have more access to public health insurance compared with the <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr>-only group for two reasons. First, they have much higher levels of Medicaid coverage prior to the end of the Medicare waiting period. Second, many continue to benefit from dual Medicare and Medicaid coverage after Medicare begins.</p>
<p>Despite the significant roles played by Medicare and Medicaid, there are still some gaps in public health insurance coverage for beneficiaries in the <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> programs. <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr>-only beneficiaries (who are not eligible for <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>) seldom have Medicaid or Medicare coverage during the 29&nbsp;months that comprise the <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> and Medicare waiting periods. Among people with <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> eligibility during the <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> waiting period, some lose their Medicaid benefits when <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> eligibility is terminated because of the initiation of <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> benefits. Typically this loss of Medicaid coverage occurs shortly after the completion of the <span class="nobr">5-month</span> <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> waiting period. For those individuals, a substantial temporal gap of public health insurance exists after the cessation of Medicaid coverage and the start of Medicare coverage. Lastly, <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> eligibility does not always guarantee Medicaid eligibility, leaving some without a public source of health insurance if they are not eligible for <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> or are in the Medicare waiting period.<sup><a href="#mn17" id="mt17">17</a></sup> Some disabled beneficiaries have other sources of health insurance, but for those that do not, lack of health insurance can severely impair access to health care (Riley 2006; Weathers and others&nbsp;2010).</p>
<p>Several important issues remain for further analysis. One issue is the question of how implementation factors&mdash;such as delays in the <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> disability determination process, the use of more restrictive Medicaid criteria in the <span class="nobr">209(b)</span> states, and autoenrollment&mdash;affect the extent and timing of Medicaid coverage.<sup><a href="#mn18" id="mt18">18</a></sup> Another question of importance is how the patterns of Medicaid and Medicare coverage translate into utilization and program cost patterns. In addition, there is a need to reassess overall health insurance coverage among disabled people in light of the patterns identified in this article, but also to consider information on private sources of health insurance that were unobserved in the administrative data sets used for this study. Finally, the ongoing reforms to increase overall health insurance, particularly the expansion of Medicaid coverage and other important planned changes under the Affordable Care Act, will require the reassessment of links between disability cash benefits and public health insurance coverage. Expanding Medicaid coverage among nondisabled adults may weaken the role of <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> in providing access to health insurance in the future.</p>
<h2>Appendix</h2>
<div class="table" id="tableA1">
<table>
<caption><span class="tableNumber">Table&nbsp;A-1. </span>Percentage of people with full Medicaid coverage among survivors aged <span class="nobr">18&ndash;64</span> of longitudinal pattern groups, by selected months before and after first month of disability program entry</caption>
<colgroup span="1" style="width:9em"></colgroup>
<colgroup class="shaded" span="1" style="width:6em"></colgroup>
<colgroup span="7" style="width:7em"></colgroup>
<colgroup span="1" style="width:5em"></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th rowspan="2" class="stubHeading" scope="colgroup">Month (month&nbsp;1&nbsp;= month of disability program entry)&nbsp;<sup>a</sup></th>
<th rowspan="2" scope="colgroup">Number of observations</th>
<th colspan="7" class="spanner" scope="colgroup">Longitudinal pattern <sup>b</sup></th>
<th rowspan="2" scope="colgroup">Total</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<th scope="col"><abbr class="spell">DI</abbr>-only</th>
<th scope="col"><abbr class="spell">DI</abbr>-only to joint <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr></th>
<th scope="col"><abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only</th>
<th scope="col"><abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only to <span class="nobr"><abbr class="spell">DI</abbr>-only</span> serial</th>
<th scope="col"><abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only to joint <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">DI</abbr></th>
<th scope="col"><abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> simultaneous</th>
<th scope="col">Other pattern</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><b>-12</b></th>
<td>68,798</td>
<td>1.8</td>
<td>11.0</td>
<td>23.6</td>
<td>5.2</td>
<td>9.2</td>
<td>7.1</td>
<td>18.6</td>
<td>7.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row">-6</th>
<td>68,798</td>
<td>2.9</td>
<td>13.8</td>
<td>26.7</td>
<td>5.5</td>
<td>10.1</td>
<td>11.5</td>
<td>19.8</td>
<td>8.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><b>Month of entry</b></th>
<td>68,798</td>
<td>5.8</td>
<td>23.7</td>
<td>66.4</td>
<td>63.1</td>
<td>43.4</td>
<td>47.8</td>
<td>54.5</td>
<td>23.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2</th>
<td>68,599</td>
<td>6.1</td>
<td>27.2</td>
<td>69.8</td>
<td>67.3</td>
<td>46.8</td>
<td>50.0</td>
<td>57.8</td>
<td>25.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row">3</th>
<td>68,361</td>
<td>6.4</td>
<td>29.8</td>
<td>72.0</td>
<td>68.9</td>
<td>49.7</td>
<td>51.2</td>
<td>59.8</td>
<td>26.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row">4</th>
<td>68,038</td>
<td>6.6</td>
<td>32.3</td>
<td>74.1</td>
<td>69.8</td>
<td>52.5</td>
<td>49.8</td>
<td>61.0</td>
<td>26.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row">5</th>
<td>67,710</td>
<td>6.8</td>
<td>34.4</td>
<td>75.7</td>
<td>67.4</td>
<td>54.9</td>
<td>49.9</td>
<td>63.5</td>
<td>27.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row">6</th>
<td>67,349</td>
<td>7.0</td>
<td>36.3</td>
<td>77.3</td>
<td>59.5</td>
<td>56.3</td>
<td>49.0</td>
<td>64.7</td>
<td>27.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row">7</th>
<td>66,983</td>
<td>7.2</td>
<td>37.8</td>
<td>78.4</td>
<td>51.4</td>
<td>56.0</td>
<td>48.7</td>
<td>67.1</td>
<td>27.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row">8</th>
<td>66,663</td>
<td>7.5</td>
<td>39.4</td>
<td>78.9</td>
<td>46.8</td>
<td>55.7</td>
<td>47.8</td>
<td>67.8</td>
<td>28.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row">9</th>
<td>66,373</td>
<td>7.6</td>
<td>41.0</td>
<td>80.0</td>
<td>43.5</td>
<td>55.4</td>
<td>46.1</td>
<td>68.8</td>
<td>28.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row">10</th>
<td>66,071</td>
<td>7.8</td>
<td>42.1</td>
<td>80.4</td>
<td>41.3</td>
<td>54.6</td>
<td>45.5</td>
<td>68.8</td>
<td>28.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row">11</th>
<td>65,784</td>
<td>8.0</td>
<td>43.8</td>
<td>80.8</td>
<td>39.3</td>
<td>54.4</td>
<td>45.6</td>
<td>69.6</td>
<td>28.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><b>12</b></th>
<td>65,497</td>
<td>8.2</td>
<td>44.9</td>
<td>81.1</td>
<td>38.4</td>
<td>54.0</td>
<td>45.2</td>
<td>69.4</td>
<td>28.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row">18</th>
<td>63,800</td>
<td>9.2</td>
<td>52.4</td>
<td>83.5</td>
<td>37.3</td>
<td>54.1</td>
<td>46.1</td>
<td>71.9</td>
<td>30.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><b>24</b></th>
<td>62,316</td>
<td>9.6</td>
<td>54.0</td>
<td>84.7</td>
<td>36.4</td>
<td>52.0</td>
<td>44.5</td>
<td>72.4</td>
<td>31.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row">25</th>
<td>66,663</td>
<td>7.5</td>
<td>39.4</td>
<td>78.9</td>
<td>46.8</td>
<td>55.7</td>
<td>47.8</td>
<td>67.8</td>
<td>31.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row">26</th>
<td>66,373</td>
<td>7.6</td>
<td>41.0</td>
<td>80.0</td>
<td>43.5</td>
<td>55.4</td>
<td>46.1</td>
<td>68.8</td>
<td>31.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row">27</th>
<td>66,071</td>
<td>7.8</td>
<td>42.1</td>
<td>80.4</td>
<td>41.3</td>
<td>54.6</td>
<td>45.5</td>
<td>68.8</td>
<td>31.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row">28</th>
<td>65,497</td>
<td>8.2</td>
<td>44.9</td>
<td>81.1</td>
<td>38.4</td>
<td>54.0</td>
<td>45.2</td>
<td>69.4</td>
<td>31.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row">29</th>
<td>65,198</td>
<td>8.4</td>
<td>47.7</td>
<td>81.5</td>
<td>37.7</td>
<td>54.1</td>
<td>45.0</td>
<td>69.0</td>
<td>30.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row">30</th>
<td>60,755</td>
<td>9.6</td>
<td>53.5</td>
<td>85.0</td>
<td>34.2</td>
<td>48.9</td>
<td>41.5</td>
<td>74.1</td>
<td>30.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><b>36</b></th>
<td>59,138</td>
<td>9.4</td>
<td>53.5</td>
<td>84.8</td>
<td>34.0</td>
<td>48.0</td>
<td>43.4</td>
<td>71.9</td>
<td>30.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><b>48</b></th>
<td>55,479</td>
<td>9.4</td>
<td>52.2</td>
<td>83.5</td>
<td>32.5</td>
<td>46.1</td>
<td>42.4</td>
<td>69.5</td>
<td>30.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><b>60</b></th>
<td>51,752</td>
<td>9.4</td>
<td>51.9</td>
<td>82.8</td>
<td>33.5</td>
<td>46.2</td>
<td>40.8</td>
<td>67.8</td>
<td>30.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><b>72</b></th>
<td>48,286</td>
<td>8.2</td>
<td>48.6</td>
<td>82.1</td>
<td>29.9</td>
<td>41.6</td>
<td>37.0</td>
<td>66.2</td>
<td>29.1</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
<tfoot>
<tr>
<td class="firstNote" colspan="10">SOURCES: Authors' calculations from Social Security and Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services administrative records.</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="note" colspan="10">NOTES: Sample of first-ever disability (<abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> and/or <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>) program entrants in 2000 who were aged <span class="nobr">18&ndash;64</span> during the first month of payment eligibility. &quot;State-only&quot; <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> first awardees are not included. &quot;Month 1&quot; is defined as first-ever month of positive payment eligibility for program of first award. Immediately preceding that month is &quot;month&nbsp;-1.&quot; Because the sample frame was defined on the basis of benefit status in month&nbsp;1, sample members were alive and younger than age&nbsp;65 during the preceding 12&nbsp;months; some may have been age&nbsp;17 during prior months. The data for months&nbsp;2 through 72 reflect only survivors younger than age&nbsp;65 at given month.</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="note" colspan="10">a. Months corresponding to <span class="nobr">12-month</span> intervals 1&nbsp;year before and 6&nbsp;years after program entry are in bold. More detailed monthly information is given around important programmatic milestones.</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="lastNote" colspan="10">b. Detailed classification of longitudinal cash benefit eligibility patterns during the <span class="nobr">72-month</span> period.</td>
</tr>
</tfoot>
</table>
</div>
<div class="table" id="tableA2">
<table>
<caption><span class="tableNumber">Table&nbsp;A-2. </span>Percentage of people with full Medicare Part&nbsp;A and/or Medicaid coverage among survivors aged <span class="nobr">18&ndash;64</span> of longitudinal pattern groups, by selected months before and after first month of disability program entry</caption>
<colgroup span="1" style="width:9em"></colgroup>
<colgroup class="shaded" span="1" style="width:6em"></colgroup>
<colgroup span="7" style="width:7em"></colgroup>
<colgroup span="1" style="width:5em"></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th rowspan="2" class="stubHeading" scope="colgroup">Month (month&nbsp;1&nbsp;= month of disability program entry) <sup>a</sup></th>
<th rowspan="2" scope="colgroup">Number of observations</th>
<th colspan="7" class="spanner" scope="colgroup">Longitudinal pattern <sup>b</sup></th>
<th rowspan="2" scope="colgroup">Total</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<th scope="col"><abbr class="spell">DI</abbr>-only</th>
<th scope="col"><abbr class="spell">DI</abbr>-only to joint <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr></th>
<th scope="col"><abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only</th>
<th scope="col"><abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only to <span class="nobr"><abbr class="spell">DI</abbr>-only</span> serial</th>
<th scope="col"><abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only to joint <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">DI</abbr></th>
<th scope="col"><abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> simultaneous</th>
<th scope="col">Other pattern</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><b>-12</b></th>
<td>68,798</td>
<td>2.6</td>
<td>11.1</td>
<td>24.4</td>
<td>5.7</td>
<td>9.3</td>
<td>7.8</td>
<td>20.8</td>
<td>7.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row">-6</th>
<td>68,798</td>
<td>3.9</td>
<td>14.0</td>
<td>27.6</td>
<td>6.1</td>
<td>10.2</td>
<td>12.1</td>
<td>22.0</td>
<td>9.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><b>Month of entry</b></th>
<td>68,798</td>
<td>7.7</td>
<td>23.9</td>
<td>66.7</td>
<td>63.5</td>
<td>43.5</td>
<td>48.3</td>
<td>54.9</td>
<td>24.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2</th>
<td>68,599</td>
<td>8.0</td>
<td>27.4</td>
<td>70.0</td>
<td>67.8</td>
<td>46.9</td>
<td>50.6</td>
<td>58.2</td>
<td>26.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row">3</th>
<td>68,361</td>
<td>8.4</td>
<td>30.1</td>
<td>72.3</td>
<td>69.6</td>
<td>49.9</td>
<td>52.2</td>
<td>60.0</td>
<td>27.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row">4</th>
<td>68,038</td>
<td>8.6</td>
<td>32.5</td>
<td>74.4</td>
<td>70.8</td>
<td>52.7</td>
<td>51.2</td>
<td>61.2</td>
<td>28.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row">5</th>
<td>67,710</td>
<td>8.9</td>
<td>34.6</td>
<td>76.1</td>
<td>68.7</td>
<td>55.1</td>
<td>51.4</td>
<td>63.9</td>
<td>29.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row">6</th>
<td>67,349</td>
<td>9.1</td>
<td>36.7</td>
<td>77.6</td>
<td>61.6</td>
<td>56.5</td>
<td>50.6</td>
<td>65.1</td>
<td>29.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row">7</th>
<td>66,983</td>
<td>9.4</td>
<td>38.2</td>
<td>78.8</td>
<td>54.3</td>
<td>56.2</td>
<td>50.5</td>
<td>67.7</td>
<td>29.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row">8</th>
<td>66,663</td>
<td>9.6</td>
<td>39.8</td>
<td>79.4</td>
<td>50.0</td>
<td>56.0</td>
<td>49.8</td>
<td>68.6</td>
<td>29.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row">9</th>
<td>66,373</td>
<td>9.8</td>
<td>41.4</td>
<td>80.5</td>
<td>47.2</td>
<td>55.8</td>
<td>48.2</td>
<td>69.8</td>
<td>30.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row">10</th>
<td>66,071</td>
<td>10.0</td>
<td>42.6</td>
<td>80.9</td>
<td>45.2</td>
<td>55.1</td>
<td>47.7</td>
<td>70.0</td>
<td>30.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row">11</th>
<td>65,784</td>
<td>10.2</td>
<td>44.3</td>
<td>81.3</td>
<td>43.6</td>
<td>54.9</td>
<td>47.8</td>
<td>70.8</td>
<td>30.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><b>12</b></th>
<td>65,497</td>
<td>10.5</td>
<td>45.5</td>
<td>82.0</td>
<td>42.8</td>
<td>54.4</td>
<td>47.6</td>
<td>71.2</td>
<td>30.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row">18</th>
<td>63,800</td>
<td>12.3</td>
<td>53.3</td>
<td>84.7</td>
<td>41.9</td>
<td>54.7</td>
<td>48.4</td>
<td>74.5</td>
<td>33.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><b>24</b></th>
<td>62,316</td>
<td>13.6</td>
<td>55.5</td>
<td>86.8</td>
<td>41.0</td>
<td>52.8</td>
<td>46.9</td>
<td>76.4</td>
<td>34.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row">25</th>
<td>62,073</td>
<td>97.5</td>
<td>99.4</td>
<td>87.1</td>
<td>41.0</td>
<td>52.5</td>
<td>99.3</td>
<td>77.2</td>
<td>89.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row">26</th>
<td>61,803</td>
<td>99.0</td>
<td>99.5</td>
<td>87.3</td>
<td>45.1</td>
<td>58.1</td>
<td>99.6</td>
<td>78.4</td>
<td>91.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row">27</th>
<td>61,546</td>
<td>99.0</td>
<td>99.5</td>
<td>87.6</td>
<td>50.3</td>
<td>65.6</td>
<td>99.5</td>
<td>78.7</td>
<td>92.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row">28</th>
<td>61,272</td>
<td>99.1</td>
<td>99.5</td>
<td>87.8</td>
<td>60.8</td>
<td>74.9</td>
<td>99.5</td>
<td>81.1</td>
<td>93.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row">29</th>
<td>60,998</td>
<td>99.1</td>
<td>99.5</td>
<td>88.2</td>
<td>85.7</td>
<td>90.1</td>
<td>99.6</td>
<td>83.2</td>
<td>96.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row">30</th>
<td>60,755</td>
<td>99.2</td>
<td>99.5</td>
<td>88.3</td>
<td>99.9</td>
<td>99.8</td>
<td>99.7</td>
<td>84.4</td>
<td>97.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><b>36</b></th>
<td>59,138</td>
<td>99.4</td>
<td>99.4</td>
<td>88.3</td>
<td>99.5</td>
<td>99.8</td>
<td>99.7</td>
<td>91.0</td>
<td>97.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><b>48</b></th>
<td>55,479</td>
<td>99.1</td>
<td>99.4</td>
<td>87.3</td>
<td>98.8</td>
<td>99.5</td>
<td>99.3</td>
<td>93.7</td>
<td>97.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><b>60</b></th>
<td>51,752</td>
<td>98.8</td>
<td>99.1</td>
<td>87.1</td>
<td>98.0</td>
<td>99.1</td>
<td>98.1</td>
<td>95.0</td>
<td>97.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><b>72</b></th>
<td>48,286</td>
<td>98.6</td>
<td>98.9</td>
<td>86.9</td>
<td>97.4</td>
<td>98.7</td>
<td>97.3</td>
<td>97.7</td>
<td>96.8</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
<tfoot>
<tr>
<td class="firstNote" colspan="10">SOURCES: Authors' calculations from Social Security and Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services administrative records.</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="note" colspan="10">NOTES: Sample of first-ever disability (<abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> and/or <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>) program entrants in 2000 who were aged <span class="nobr">18&ndash;64</span> during the first month of payment eligibility. &quot;State-only&quot; <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> first awardees are not included. &quot;Month 1&quot; is defined as first-ever month of positive payment eligibility for program of first award. Immediately preceding that month is &quot;month&nbsp;-1.&quot; Because the sample frame was defined on the basis of benefit status in month&nbsp;1, sample members were alive and younger than age&nbsp;65 during the preceding 12&nbsp;months; some may have been age&nbsp;17 during prior months. The data for months&nbsp;2 through 72 reflect only survivors younger than age&nbsp;65 at given month.</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="note" colspan="10">a. Months corresponding to <span class="nobr">12-month</span> intervals&nbsp;1 year before and 6&nbsp;years after program entry are in bold. More detailed monthly information is given around important programmatic milestones.</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="lastNote" colspan="10">b. Detailed classification of longitudinal cash benefit eligibility patterns during the <span class="nobr">72-month</span> period.</td>
</tr>
</tfoot>
</table>
</div>
<div id="notes">
<h2>Notes</h2>
<p>&ensp;<a href="#mt1" id="mn1">1</a> For instance Cogan, Hubbard, and Kessler (2008) were concerned about the effect of Medicare for disabled people on the market for private insurance. Yelowitz (1998) addressed the effect of Medicaid on <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> participation.</p>
<p>&ensp;<a href="#mt2" id="mn2">2</a> Note also that under Section&nbsp;10323 of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (Public Law&nbsp;<span class="nobr">111-148</span>), the secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services may also deem individuals exposed to environmental health hazards eligible for Medicare coverage. See <a href="http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/PLAW-111publ148/html/PLAW-111publ148.htm">http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/PLAW-111publ148/html/PLAW-111publ148.htm</a>.</p>
<p>&ensp;<a href="#mt3" id="mn3">3</a> For further detail, see <a href="/redbook/index.html">http://www.socialsecurity.gov/redbook/index.html</a>.</p>
<p>&ensp;<a href="#mt4" id="mn4">4</a> Swartz (2008) reviewed the evolution of American attitudes and policy toward public health insurance for the poor. Dorn (2008) demonstrated the high prevalence of uninsured status among poor and <span class="nobr">near-poor</span> nondisabled adults who were neither pregnant nor caring for dependent children.</p>
<p>&ensp;<a href="#mt5" id="mn5">5</a> For further detail, see <a href="/disabilityresearch/wi/1619b.htm">http://www.socialsecurity.gov/disabilityresearch/wi/1619b.htm</a>.</p>
<p>&ensp;<a href="#mt6" id="mn6">6</a> <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> is sufficiently concerned about health insurance coverage during the Medicare waiting period to have initiated the Accelerated Benefits Demonstration. For early results, see Weathers and others (2010).</p>
<p>&ensp;<a href="#mt7" id="mn7">7</a> Individuals with amyotrophic sclerosis and transplant patients do not face a waiting period. Similar rules apply to end-stage renal disease patients; the waiting period is 3&nbsp;months for dialysis patients, but is eliminated if those patients immediately undergo training for home dialysis. For details, see https://www.cms.gov<wbr>/employerservices<wbr>/04_endstagerenaldisease.asp.</p>
<p>&ensp;<a href="#mt8" id="mn8">8</a> See <a href="/disabilityresearch/wi/1619b.htm">http://www.socialsecurity.gov<wbr>/disabilityresearch<wbr>/wi<wbr>/1619b.htm</a>.</p>
<p>&ensp;<a href="#mt9" id="mn9">9</a> For details on continued Medicare eligibility after the cessation of <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> benefits for work-related reasons, see <a href="/disabilityresearch/wi/medicare.htm">http://www.socialsecurity.gov/disabilityresearch/wi/medicare.htm</a>.</p>
<p><a href="#mt10" id="mn10">10</a> Huynh, Rupp, and Sears (2002) and Sears and Rupp (2003) reported substantial measurement error in data on <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> in the Survey of Income and Program Participation. Davern and others (2009) demonstrated systematic underreporting of Medicaid coverage in the Current Population Survey.</p>
<p><a href="#mt11" id="mn11">11</a> Health insurance coverage among young adults with childhood <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> experience is important, but outside the scope of our current analysis. See DeCesaro and Hemmeter (2009) for detail on health insurance coverage among <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> children.</p>
<p><a href="#mt12" id="mn12">12</a> Some caution is needed in interpreting the race/ethnicity variable. This variable from Social Security administrative records is known to reflect some nonsampling error (Scott 1999). The nonsampling error arises from the fact that race and ethnicity are not measured separately in the administrative records, and the content of the variable has changed over time. Prior to 1980, the source data did not contain data on Hispanic ethnicity. As a result, the percentage shown in the table for the &quot;White, non-Hispanic&quot; category reflects upward bias, while the reverse is true for the &quot;Other&quot; category.</p>
<p><a href="#mt13" id="mn13">13</a> Only 14.3&nbsp;percent of this subgroup was covered for the reason of being &quot;disabled, including blind.&quot; An additional 9&nbsp;percent was covered by Medicaid as a &quot;child&quot; and less than 1&nbsp;percent as an &quot;unemployed adult.&quot; The overwhelming majority was classified as being covered for &quot;other&quot; reasons.</p>
<p><a href="#mt14" id="mn14">14</a> Note that the race/ethnicity variable from Social Security administrative records is known to reflect nonsampling error (Scott 1999). Therefore, some caution is needed in the interpretation. While the point estimates from our regression models may be somewhat sensitive to this nonsampling error, we believe that the pattern of our estimated odds ratio results is not affected by this measurement error in a substantial way.</p>
<p><a href="#mt15" id="mn15">15</a> As noted previously, the <span class="nobr">24-month</span> Medicare waiting period is substantially shortened or waived for certain <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> awardees.</p>
<p><a href="#mt16" id="mn16">16</a> Note that our anchoring point is the first month of benefit eligibility. For the <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr>-only group, that happens to be right after the completion of the <span class="nobr">5-month</span> <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> waiting period. Thus, the jump to 100&nbsp;percent Medicare coverage occurs during month&nbsp;25. For the other groups with concurrent involvement, there appears some lag relative to our anchoring point, but that simply reflects the fact that <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> starts during the <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> waiting period for these people. Nevertheless, the end of the combined <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> and Medicare waiting period is always 29&nbsp;months after disability onset for all four groups with <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> involvement.</p>
<p><a href="#mt17" id="mn17">17</a> In 11&nbsp;states known as &quot;<span class="nobr">209(b)</span> states,&quot; both the financial and nonfinancial eligibility criteria can be more restrictive than the federal <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> standard, as long as the criteria are no more restrictive than the rules that were in place in 1972 (Kaiser Commission for Medicaid and the Uninsured&nbsp;2010).</p>
<p><a href="#mt18" id="mn18">18</a> Ungaro and Federman (2009) provided evidence that the restrictiveness in the Medicaid eligibility determination process has a negative effect on Medicaid enrollment among the elderly.</p>
</div>
<div id="references">
<h2>References</h2>
<p>[<abbr class="spell">CMS</abbr>] Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. 2011. <i>Medicaid Eligibility&mdash;Overview.</i> <a href="https://www.medicaid.gov/medicaid/eligibility/index.html">http://www.medicaid.gov/Medicaid-CHIP-Program-Information/By-Topics/Eligibility/Eligibility.html</a>.</p>
<p>Cogan, John&nbsp;F., R.&nbsp;Glenn Hubbard, and Daniel&nbsp;P. Kessler. 2008. &quot;The Effect of Medicare Coverage for the Disabled on the Market for Private Insurance.&quot; <abbr class="spell">NBER</abbr> Working Paper <abbr title="Number">No.</abbr>&nbsp;14309. Cambridge, <abbr title="Massachusetts">MA</abbr>: National Bureau of Economic Research.</p>
<p>Cubanski, Juliette, and Patricia Neuman. 2010. &quot;Medicare Doesn't Work as Well for Younger, Disabled Beneficiaries as It Does for Older Enrollees.&quot; <i>Health Affairs</i> 29(9): <span class="nobr">1725&ndash;1733.</span></p>
<p>Davern, Michael, Jacob&nbsp;A. Klerman, Jeannete Ziegenfuss, Victoria Lynch, and George Greenberg. 2009. &quot;A Partially Corrected Estimate of Medicaid Enrollment and Uninsurance: Results From an Imputational Model Developed Off Linked Survey and Administrative Data.&quot; <i>Journal of Economic and Social Measurement</i> 34(4): <span class="nobr">219&ndash;240.</span></p>
<p>DeCesaro, Anne, and Jeffrey Hemmeter. 2009. &quot;Unmet Health Care Needs and Medical Out-of-Pocket Expenses of <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> Children.&quot; <i>Journal of Vocational Rehabilitation</i> 30(3): <span class="nobr">177&ndash;199.</span></p>
<p>Dorn, Stan. 2008. <i>Millions of Low-Income Americans Can't Get Medicaid: What Can Be Done?</i> <abbr class="spell">AARP</abbr> Research Report #2008-13. Washington, <abbr class="spell">DC</abbr>: <abbr class="spell">AARP</abbr> Public Policy Institute (September). <a href="https://assets.aarp.org/rgcenter/health/2008_13_medicaid.pdf">http://assets.aarp.org/rgcenter/health/2008_13_medicaid.pdf</a>.</p>
<p>Huynh, Minh, Kalman Rupp, and James Sears. 2002. &quot;The Assessment of Survey of Income and Program Participation (<abbr>SIPP</abbr>) Benefit Data Using Longitudinal Administrative Records.&quot; <abbr>SIPP</abbr> Working Paper <abbr title="Number">No.</abbr>&nbsp;238. Washington, <abbr class="spell">DC</abbr>: Census Bureau.</p>
<p>Kaiser Commission on Medicaid and the Uninsured. 2010. <i>Medicaid Financial Eligibility: Primary Pathways for the Elderly and People with Disabilities</i>. http://www.kff.org/medicaid/upload/8048.pdf.</p>
<p>Livermore, Gina&nbsp;A., David&nbsp;C. Stapleton, and Henry Claypool. 2010. &quot;Health Care When Workers Need It Most: Before and After Entry Into the Social Security Disability Insurance Program.&quot; <i>Inquiry </i>47(2): <span class="nobr">135&ndash;149.</span></p>
<p>Riley, Gerald&nbsp;F. 2004. &quot;The Cost of Eliminating the <span class="nobr">24-Month</span> Medicare Waiting Period for Social Security Disabled-Worker Beneficiaries.&quot; <i>Medical Care</i> 42(4): <span class="nobr">387&ndash;394.</span></p>
<p>&mdash;&mdash;&mdash;. 2006. &quot;Health Insurance and Access to Care Among Social Security Disability Insurance Beneficiaries During the Medicare Waiting Period.&quot; <i>Inquiry </i>43(3): <span class="nobr">222&ndash;230.</span></p>
<p>Rupp, Kalman, and Gerald&nbsp;F. Riley. 2011. &quot;<a href="/policy/docs/ssb/v71n2/v71n2p25.html">Longitudinal Patterns of Participation in the Social Security Disability Insurance and Supplemental Security Income Cash Benefit Programs for People With Disabilities</a>.&quot; <i>Social Security Bulletin</i> 71(2): <span class="nobr">25&ndash;51.</span></p>
<p>Scott, Charles&nbsp;G. 1999. &quot;<a href="/policy/docs/ssb/v62n4/v62n4p9.pdf">Identifying the Race or Ethnicity of <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> Recipients</a>.&quot; <i>Social Security Bulletin</i> 62(4): <span class="nobr">9&ndash;20.</span></p>
<p>Sears, James, and Kalman Rupp. 2003. &quot;Exploring Social Security Payment History Matched With the Survey of Income and Program Participation.&quot; Paper presented at the 2003 Research Conference of the Federal Committee on Statistical Methodology, Arlington, <abbr title="Virginia">VA</abbr> (November&nbsp;<span class="nobr">17&ndash;19</span>). http://www.fcsm.gov/03papers/SearsRupp.pdf.</p>
<p>Swartz, Katherine. 2008. &quot;Health Care for the Poor: For Whom, What Care, and Whose Responsibility?&quot; <abbr class="spell">IRP</abbr> Discussion Paper <abbr title="Number">No.</abbr>&nbsp;1354-08. Madison, <abbr title="Wisconsin">WI</abbr>: Institute of Research on Poverty. <a href="https://www.irp.wisc.edu/publications/focus/pdfs/foc262l.pdf">http://www.irp.wisc.edu/publications/focus/pdfs/foc262l.pdf</a>.</p>
<p>Ungaro, Ryan, and Alex&nbsp;D. Federman. 2009. &quot;Restrictiveness of Eligibility Determination and Medicaid Enrollment by Low-Income Seniors.&quot; <i>Journal of Aging &amp; Social Policy</i> 21(4): <span class="nobr">338&ndash;351.</span></p>
<p>Weathers <abbr title="the second">II</abbr>, Robert&nbsp;R., Chris Silanskis, Michelle Stegman, John Jones, and Susan Kalasunas. 2010. &quot;<a href="/policy/docs/ssb/v70n4/v70n4p25.html">Expanding Access to Health Care for Social Security Disability Insurance Beneficiaries: Early Findings From the Accelerated Benefits Demonstration</a>.&quot; <i>Social Security Bulletin</i> 70(4): <span class="nobr">25&ndash;47.</span></p>
<p>Yelowitz, Aaron&nbsp;S. 1998. &quot;The Impact of Health Care Costs and Medicaid on <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> Participation.&quot; In <i>Growth in Disability Benefits: Explanations and Policy Implications,</i> edited by Kalman Rupp and David&nbsp;C. Stapleton, <span class="nobr">109&ndash;133.</span> Kalamazoo, <abbr title="Michigan">MI</abbr>: W.&nbsp;E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, Upjohn Institute Press.</p>
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