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<h1 itemprop="headline">Disability Benefits Suspended or Terminated Because of Work</h1>
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<div id="hByline">by <span itemprop="author">Jody Schimmel and David C. Stapleton</span><br>Social Security Bulletin, <abbr title="Volume">Vol.</abbr> 71, <abbr title="Number">No.</abbr> 3, 2011 (released August 2011)</div>
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<p id="synopsis" itemprop="description">We use a new variable in the Social Security Administration's Ticket Research File to produce statistics on the first month of suspension or termination for work (<abbr class="spell">STW</abbr>) for Social Security Disability Insurance (<abbr class="spell">DI</abbr>) and Supplemental Security Income (<abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>)-only beneficiaries as well as on the number of months in nonpayment status following suspension or termination for work (<abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr>) before their return to the rolls, attainment of the full retirement age, or death—in each year from 2002 through 2006. Less than 1 percent of beneficiaries experienced their first <abbr class="spell">STW</abbr> in each year, but more were in <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> in at least 1 month. Ticket to Work (<abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr>) participants were more likely to have a first <abbr class="spell">STW</abbr> than nonparticipants, but most of those who had an <abbr class="spell">STW</abbr> were not <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> participants, reflecting low use of <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr>. Employment networks often failed to file claims for outcome payments during months when their <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> clients were in <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr>.</p>
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<hr />
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<div class="eightypercent">
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<p>Jody Schimmel is a senior researcher at Mathematica Policy Research. David C. Stapleton directs Mathematica's Center for Studying Disability Policy.</p>
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<p><i>Acknowledgments:</i> We gratefully acknowledge the work of several individuals at Mathematica Policy Research: Miriam Loewenberg, who performed the programming for this article; Dawn Phelps, who was involved in the construction of the <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> indicator; and Sarah Prenovitz, who assisted with the analysis. We also thank David Wittenburg and Gina Livermore of Mathematica, as well as anonymous reviewers for this journal who provided comments and suggestions that greatly improved the article. Finally, we also thank Paul O'Leary, the Social Security Administration's project officer for the evaluation of Ticket to Work, for his guidance and insight in the development of the <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> indicator and this article. </p>
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<p>This article is based on a report prepared for the Social Security Administration as part of the evaluation of the Ticket to Work program, under contract <abbr title="number">no.</abbr> 0600-03-60130.</p>
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<p>Contents of this publication are <a href="/policy/accessibility.html">not copyrighted</a>; any items may be reprinted, but citation of the <i>Social Security Bulletin</i> as the source is requested. The findings and conclusions presented in the <i>Bulletin</i> are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the Social Security Administration or Mathematica Policy Research.</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<h2>Introduction</h2>
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<div class="abbrtable">
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<table role="presentation">
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<caption>Selected Abbreviations</caption>
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<tr>
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<td><abbr class="spell">DI</abbr></td>
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<td>Disability Insurance</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td><abbr class="spell">EN</abbr></td>
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<td>employment network</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td><abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr></td>
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<td>full retirement age</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td><abbr class="spell">MO</abbr></td>
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<td>milestone outcome</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td><abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr></td>
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<td>nonpayment status following<br>suspension or termination for work</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td><abbr class="spell">OO</abbr></td>
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<td>outcome only</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td><abbr class="spell">SGA</abbr></td>
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<td>substantial gainful activity</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td><abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr></td>
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<td>Social Security Administration</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td><abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr></td>
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<td>Supplemental Security Income</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td><abbr class="spell">SVRA</abbr></td>
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<td>state vocational rehabilitation agency</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td><abbr class="spell">STW</abbr></td>
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<td>suspension or termination for work</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td><abbr class="spell">TRF</abbr></td>
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<td>Ticket Research File</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td><abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr></td>
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<td>Ticket to Work</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td><abbr class="spell">TWP</abbr></td>
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<td>trial work period</td>
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</tr>
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</table>
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</div>
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<p>The benefits of only a small share of Social Security Disability Insurance (<abbr class="spell">DI</abbr>) and Supplemental Security Income (<abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>)-only beneficiaries are terminated each year because of work—about <span class="nobr">one-half</span> of 1 percent of <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> participants and an even smaller percentage of <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only participants (O'Leary, Livermore, and Stapleton 2011). Terminations provide only a partial picture of the extent to which beneficiaries forego benefits because of work, however, for two reasons. First, a substantial number of beneficiaries have their benefits suspended for work—many more than the number whose benefits are eventually terminated for work. Second, beneficiaries may remain in nonpayment status for many months, even years, after suspension or termination for work occurs. In any month, the total number of beneficiaries or former beneficiaries who are in nonpayment status following benefit suspension or termination for work is far larger than the number first suspended or terminated for work in the same month, even after excluding months after the beneficiary attains the full retirement age (<abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr>) or dies.</p>
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<p>Recent efforts to increase beneficiary employment and program exits for work have heightened interest in counting the number of months in which beneficiaries and former beneficiaries forego benefits because of work. One specific objective of the Social Security Administration's (<abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr>'s) Ticket to Work (<abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr>) program, launched in 2002, was to increase the number of such months. To achieve this objective, <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> expanded the types of organizations <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> would pay to support beneficiaries' employment efforts. The new providers, called employment networks (<abbr class="spell">EN</abbr>s), became eligible to receive payments under <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr>'s milestone-outcome (<abbr class="spell">MO</abbr>) or outcome-only (<abbr class="spell">OO</abbr>) payment systems, whichever they preferred. Both of these new payment systems offer outcome payments to <abbr class="spell">EN</abbr>s in months when their clients are in nonpayment status because of work.<sup><a href="#mn1" id="mt1">1</a></sup> State vocational rehabilitation agencies (<abbr class="spell">SVRA</abbr>s) could also choose to use one of the new payment systems. <abbr class="spell">SVRA</abbr>s were also allowed to continue to use a "traditional" payment system, which ties cost reimbursement payments to attainment of an earnings objective, without regard to benefit suspension or termination for work, on a case-by-case basis, provided that they obtained the beneficiary's "ticket." During the <span class="nobr">5-year</span> period examined in this article, from 2002 through 2006, the traditional payment system was considered to be a <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> payment system, although regulatory modifications changed that in July 2008.<sup><a href="#mn2" id="mt2">2</a></sup> In this article, "<abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> participants" refers to beneficiaries who assigned their tickets under any one of the three payment systems.</p>
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<p>Prior to <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr>, information about benefit suspensions and terminations for work was quite limited (Newcomb, Payne, and Waid 2003; O'Leary, Livermore, and Stapleton 2011), and <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> did not routinely produce statistics on suspensions and terminations of <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> benefits for work. The best information available about terminations specifically for work came from a series of studies based on <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> beneficiaries who entered the program in 1980 and 1981 (for example, Muller 1992). <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> did not start regularly publishing statistics on <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> benefit suspensions and terminations for work until 2001. Statistics on <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> suspensions for work are more comprehensive; <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> has reported, consistently since 1987, the number of beneficiaries whose payments were suspended under section <span class="nobr">1619(b)</span> of the Social Security Act.</p>
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<p>Even today, however, the annual published statistics on benefit suspension and termination for work have significant limitations. Most importantly, the data lack information about the duration of suspensions and terminations for work and do not tell us how long the small share of beneficiaries whose benefits are first suspended or terminated for work in each year remain in nonpayment status thereafter. In fact, those whose benefits have been terminated for work are not represented in <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> statistics at all in later years unless they return to current-pay status. Another limitation of the published statistics is that the data do not consider the intersection of <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>. In some instances, concurrent beneficiaries might be in nonpayment status for <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> after suspension or termination for work, but in payment status for <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr>, or vice versa. No statistics we have seen identify those who are not receiving benefits from either program following benefit suspension or termination for work.</p>
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<p>We exploit a newly developed monthly variable in <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr>'s 2007 Ticket Research File (<abbr class="spell">TRF</abbr>) that indicates whether a beneficiary is in nonpayment status following benefit suspension or termination for work (<abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr>). The variable was developed to support the <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> evaluation because a primary goal of the program was to increase the time that beneficiaries and former beneficiaries are in <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr>. We use the <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> variable to produce new statistics on months in which benefits were not paid following suspension or termination for work.<sup><a href="#mn3" id="mt3">3</a></sup> We count the number of suspension or termination for work (<abbr class="spell">STW</abbr>) events in each year (that is, the number of beneficiaries whose benefits are suspended or terminated because of work for the first time) and provide statistics on the duration of <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr>.</p>
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<p>By definition, <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> only ends when the beneficiary returns to current-pay status (that is, he or she is entitled to a benefit payment), attains the <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr>, or dies. Those classified as in <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> are not necessarily working at a level that would make them ineligible to receive benefits; that is, they are not necessarily engaged in substantial gainful activity (<abbr class="spell">SGA</abbr>), as defined by <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr>. We know that they were engaged in <abbr class="spell">SGA</abbr> when their <abbr class="spell">STW</abbr> event occurred, but not in every <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> month thereafter. The counted <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> months are an upper bound on the number of months such beneficiaries were engaged in <abbr class="spell">SGA</abbr> prior to their return to current-pay status, attainment of the <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr>, or death. The counted <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> months are not necessarily an upper bound on the number of months that beneficiaries are in nonpayment status because of work, however, for two reasons. First, we cannot identify beneficiaries whose benefits were suspended or terminated for other reasons, but are now ineligible for benefits only because of <abbr class="spell">SGA</abbr>. Second, there are also instances of ambiguity about why benefits are suspended or terminated, reflecting how program administrative data are collected and used.</p>
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<p>We provide the first <abbr class="spell">STW</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> statistics over multiple years and compare statistics for <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> participants and nonparticipants. We also count the number of outcome payments made to <abbr class="spell">EN</abbr>s under the <abbr class="spell">MO</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">OO</abbr> payment systems in months when, according to the <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> indicator, their clients were in <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr>. This comparison led to the unexpected result that no payments were made to an <abbr class="spell">EN</abbr> in a large share of <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> months, prompting <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> to investigate the reasons why.</p>
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<p><abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr>'s investigation included a review of a random sample of months when <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> was at odds with the <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> payment information. The review confirmed that the <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> statistics presented in this article are substantively correct. Some classification errors occur in both directions, but in this sample such errors approximately offset each other. The review also suggests that <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> participants are actually engaged in <abbr class="spell">SGA</abbr> during a large majority of the months identified as <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> months. Because <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> participants are a self-selected group, we do not know the extent to which this finding extends to nonparticipants in <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr>.</p>
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<p>The article first describes the <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> indicator and defines the subpopulations analyzed, and then it presents statistics on the first <abbr class="spell">STW</abbr> event and the duration of <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> months thereafter. This includes a comparison of statistics for <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> participants and nonparticipants. Annual statistics on total <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> months from 2002 through 2006 are given next, again comparing <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> participants and nonparticipants. We then take a closer look at <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> months for <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> participants and the extent to which those months generated outcome payments to <abbr class="spell">EN</abbr>s or <abbr class="spell">SVRA</abbr>s. Our conclusions provide a summary of key findings and a discussion of their implications.</p>
|
|
<h2>Data and Methods</h2>
|
|
<p>The <abbr class="spell">STW</abbr> statistics are derived from the 2007 version of the Ticket Research File—a compilation of data from multiple administrative data sources containing information on 100 percent of <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> and adult <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> disability beneficiaries with at least 1 month in current-pay status from 1996 onward.</p>
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|
<p><abbr class="spell">STW</abbr> is based on a complex set of administrative information. We first constructed separate <abbr class="spell">STW</abbr> measures for <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> beneficiaries and then combined them into a single measure indicating whether the beneficiary is in one of five status categories: (1) current-pay status in at least one of the programs and has not left the rolls because of work; (2) suspended-pay status because of work in both programs, or in suspended status because of work in one program and either ineligible or in terminated status for any reason under the other program; (3) terminated status because of work in both programs, or in terminated status for work in one program and either ineligible or in terminated status for any reason under the other program; (4) has attained the <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> or died; or (5) is in terminated status for some other reason, such as medical improvement. For the purposes of this analysis, we define the first occurrence of either the second or third category as the first <abbr class="spell">STW</abbr> event and all subsequent occurrences as <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> months. We do not distinguish between suspended and terminated status.</p>
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|
<p>We constructed two data extracts to support the analysis. The first was used to support comparison of statistics for <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> participants and nonparticipants. It consists of repeated cross sections of <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only beneficiaries in each year from 2002 through 2006. For each year, all beneficiaries included were either in current-pay status or had benefits suspended or terminated for work in at least 1 month of that year, were aged <span class="nobr">18–64</span>, and were not deceased in January. For each year, <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> participants are those whose tickets were already assigned (that is, held by a provider) as of January or were assigned during a later month of the year. We differentiate <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> participants by payment system (traditional, <abbr class="spell">MO</abbr>, or <abbr class="spell">OO</abbr>) and "payment title" (<abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> or <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only). The latter distinction reflects the fact that <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> payments for <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> beneficiaries are higher than those for <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only beneficiaries. It is important to recognize that all statistics for <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> beneficiaries encompass both <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr>-only and concurrent <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> beneficiaries.<sup><a href="#mn4" id="mt4">4</a></sup></p>
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|
<p>We constructed the second data extract to support longitudinal analysis of <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> participants over multiple years. The extract includes records for all <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> participants who assigned their tickets from February 2002 through December 2005. We consider only the most recent ticket assignment for each participant; the small number who assigned their tickets during this time period, but reassigned them after the period, are excluded.<sup><a href="#mn5" id="mt5">5</a></sup> Months in which tickets were unassigned (either because they had not yet been assigned or had been unassigned) were not included in this analysis. Hence, we excluded all months after termination for age, mortality, medical recovery, or any reason other than work. We grouped participants into annual cohorts, based on when they assigned their tickets. We again stratified the statistics by payment system and payment title. In this case, the stratum is based on the month of ticket assignment rather than the status of the beneficiary in January of the relevant year.</p>
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|
<p>Nearly 140,000 of the most recent ticket assignments occurred from 2002 through 2005 (Table 1). Ticket assignments were highest in 2004 and 2005, when more than 45,000 beneficiaries assigned their tickets in each of those years. The majority of participants (86.5 percent) assigned their tickets under the traditional payment system over this period. That percentage rose from 81.8 percent in 2002 to 89.4 percent in 2005. Of the 18,809 beneficiaries who assigned their tickets under the new payment systems, 80 percent (15,029) assigned them to a provider that used the <abbr class="spell">MO</abbr> system. A large majority of those who assigned their tickets were <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> beneficiaries under each of the three payment systems, and especially under the <abbr class="spell">OO</abbr> system; 85 percent of <abbr class="spell">OO</abbr> participants, 70 percent of <abbr class="spell">MO</abbr> participants, and 69 percent of traditional system participants were <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> beneficiaries.</p>
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|
<div class="table" id="table1">
|
|
<table>
|
|
<caption><span class="tableNumber">Table 1. </span>Number of <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> participants, by payment system, payment title, and assignment cohort, February 2002–December 2005</caption>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:12em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="4" style="width:6em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:6em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:6em"></colgroup>
|
|
<thead>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th rowspan="2" class="stubHeading" scope="colgroup">Payment system and payment title</th>
|
|
<th colspan="4" class="spanner" scope="colgroup">First month of most recent ticket assignment</th>
|
|
<th rowspan="2" scope="colgroup">Total</th>
|
|
<th rowspan="2" scope="colgroup">Percentage<br>of total</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th scope="col"><abbr title="February">Feb.</abbr>–<abbr title="December">Dec.</abbr> 2002</th>
|
|
<th scope="col"><abbr title="January">Jan.</abbr>–<abbr title="December">Dec.</abbr> 2003</th>
|
|
<th scope="col"><abbr title="January">Jan.</abbr>–<abbr title="December">Dec.</abbr> 2004</th>
|
|
<th scope="col"><abbr title="January">Jan.</abbr>–<abbr title="December">Dec.</abbr> 2005</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</thead>
|
|
<tbody>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub2" scope="row">Total</th>
|
|
<td>13,981</td>
|
|
<td>32,406</td>
|
|
<td>48,161</td>
|
|
<td>45,247</td>
|
|
<td>139,795</td>
|
|
<td>100.0</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="rowgroup">Milestone-outcome</th>
|
|
<td>2,133</td>
|
|
<td>3,485</td>
|
|
<td>5,745</td>
|
|
<td>3,666</td>
|
|
<td>15,029</td>
|
|
<td>10.8</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row"><abbr class="spell">DI</abbr></th>
|
|
<td>1,450</td>
|
|
<td>2,450</td>
|
|
<td>4,020</td>
|
|
<td>2,564</td>
|
|
<td>10,484</td>
|
|
<td>7.5</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row"><abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only</th>
|
|
<td>683</td>
|
|
<td>1,035</td>
|
|
<td>1,725</td>
|
|
<td>1,102</td>
|
|
<td>4,545</td>
|
|
<td>3.3</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="rowgroup">Outcome-only</th>
|
|
<td>414</td>
|
|
<td>1,073</td>
|
|
<td>1,178</td>
|
|
<td>1,115</td>
|
|
<td>3,780</td>
|
|
<td>2.7</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row"><abbr class="spell">DI</abbr></th>
|
|
<td>332</td>
|
|
<td>924</td>
|
|
<td>988</td>
|
|
<td>973</td>
|
|
<td>3,217</td>
|
|
<td>2.3</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row"><abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only</th>
|
|
<td>82</td>
|
|
<td>149</td>
|
|
<td>190</td>
|
|
<td>142</td>
|
|
<td>563</td>
|
|
<td>0.4</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="rowgroup">Traditional</th>
|
|
<td>11,434</td>
|
|
<td>27,848</td>
|
|
<td>41,238</td>
|
|
<td>40,466</td>
|
|
<td>120,986</td>
|
|
<td>86.5</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row"><abbr class="spell">DI</abbr></th>
|
|
<td>8,331</td>
|
|
<td>19,760</td>
|
|
<td>28,430</td>
|
|
<td>26,625</td>
|
|
<td>83,146</td>
|
|
<td>59.5</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row"><abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only</th>
|
|
<td>3,103</td>
|
|
<td>8,088</td>
|
|
<td>12,808</td>
|
|
<td>13,841</td>
|
|
<td>37,840</td>
|
|
<td>27.1</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tbody>
|
|
<tfoot>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="firstNote" colspan="7">SOURCE: Analysis of <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> beneficiary records in the 2007 <abbr class="spell">TRF</abbr>.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="lastNote" colspan="7">NOTES: Counts include participants who most recently assigned their tickets from February 2002 through December 2005. Payment system and payment title are based on ticket-assignment month.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tfoot>
|
|
</table>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<h2>Suspensions and Terminations for Work</h2>
|
|
<p>This section presents longitudinal statistics for all <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only beneficiaries who experienced their first <abbr class="spell">STW</abbr> event from 2002 through 2006, by year. We define the first <abbr class="spell">STW</abbr> event in the year as the beneficiary's first <abbr class="spell">STW</abbr> event if and only if the beneficiary was in current-pay status in every month of the previous calendar year. This definition excludes the bulk of beneficiaries who had an earlier <abbr class="spell">STW</abbr> event, but does include a small number with <abbr class="spell">STW</abbr> events that occurred prior to the previous calendar year. The denominator for the percentage experiencing their first <abbr class="spell">STW</abbr> event in each year similarly excludes those who were not on the rolls in each month of the previous calendar year.<sup><a href="#mn6" id="mt6">6</a></sup></p>
|
|
<p><abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> participants were much more likely than nonparticipants to experience their first <abbr class="spell">STW</abbr> event, regardless of payment system (Table 2)—from 2 percent to 4 percent of participants did so in each year, versus less than 1 percent for nonparticipants. We expected this finding, as <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> participants signal an interest in foregoing benefits for work when they assign their tickets. Some, perhaps many, <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> participants who had their first <abbr class="spell">STW</abbr> event would have done so in the absence of <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr>. Despite the lower percentages for nonparticipants, the number of nonparticipants who experienced their first <abbr class="spell">STW</abbr> event is much larger than the number of participants who did so because the vast majority of ticket-eligible beneficiaries did not assign their tickets.</p>
|
|
<div class="table" id="table2">
|
|
<table>
|
|
<caption><span class="tableNumber">Table 2. </span>Number and percentage of beneficiaries experiencing first <abbr class="spell">STW</abbr> event, by payment title and payment system, <span class="nobr">2002–2006</span></caption>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:16em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="10" style="width:5em"></colgroup>
|
|
<thead>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th rowspan="2" class="stubHeading" id="c1">Payment title and payment system</th>
|
|
<th colspan="5" class="spanner" id="c2">Number of beneficiaries experiencing first <abbr class="spell">STW</abbr> event</th>
|
|
<th colspan="5" class="spanner" id="c3">Percentage of all beneficiaries experiencing first <abbr class="spell">STW</abbr> event</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th id="c4" headers="c2">2002</th>
|
|
<th id="c5" headers="c2">2003</th>
|
|
<th id="c6" headers="c2">2004</th>
|
|
<th id="c7" headers="c2">2005</th>
|
|
<th id="c8" headers="c2">2006</th>
|
|
<th id="c9" headers="c3">2002</th>
|
|
<th id="c10" headers="c3">2003</th>
|
|
<th id="c11" headers="c3">2004</th>
|
|
<th id="c12" headers="c3">2005</th>
|
|
<th id="c13" headers="c3">2006</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</thead>
|
|
<tbody>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r1" headers="c1"><abbr class="spell">DI</abbr></th>
|
|
<td colspan="10"></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r2" headers="r1 c1"><abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> participants</th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 c2 c4">221</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 c2 c5">1,089</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 c2 c6">2,421</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 c2 c7">3,896</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 c2 c8">4,210</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 c3 c9">2.58</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 c3 c10">3.76</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 c3 c11">4.11</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 c3 c12">4.54</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 c3 c13">3.84</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub2" id="r3" headers="r1 r2 c1">Milestone-outcome</th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r3 c2 c4">44</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r3 c2 c5">195</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r3 c2 c6">341</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r3 c2 c7">546</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r3 c2 c8">501</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r3 c3 c9">3.66</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r3 c3 c10">5.73</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r3 c3 c11">5.04</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r3 c3 c12">6.08</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r3 c3 c13">4.71</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub2" id="r4" headers="r1 r2 c1">Outcome-only</th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 c2 c4">12</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 c2 c5">105</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 c2 c6">176</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 c2 c7">221</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 c2 c8">225</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 c3 c9">4.23</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 c3 c10">9.69</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 c3 c11">9.43</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 c3 c12">8.48</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 c3 c13">6.57</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub2" id="r5" headers="r1 r2 c1">Traditional</th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r5 c2 c4">165</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r5 c2 c5">789</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r5 c2 c6">1,904</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r5 c2 c7">3,129</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r5 c2 c8">3,484</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r5 c3 c9">2.33</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r5 c3 c10">3.22</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r5 c3 c11">3.79</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r5 c3 c12">4.21</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r5 c3 c13">3.64</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r6" headers="r1 c1">Nonparticipants</th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r6 c2 c4">49,351</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r6 c2 c5">49,832</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r6 c2 c6">48,221</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r6 c2 c7">50,469</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r6 c2 c8">43,842</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r6 c3 c9">0.87</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r6 c3 c10">0.83</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r6 c3 c11">0.77</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r6 c3 c12">0.77</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r6 c3 c13">0.65</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub3" id="r7" headers="r1 r6 c1">All <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> beneficiaries</th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r6 r7 c2 c4">49,574</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r6 r7 c2 c5">50,925</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r6 r7 c2 c6">50,646</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r6 r7 c2 c7">54,370</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r6 r7 c2 c8">48,067</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r6 r7 c3 c9">0.87</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r6 r7 c3 c10">0.85</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r6 r7 c3 c11">0.80</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r6 r7 c3 c12">0.82</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r6 r7 c3 c13">0.70</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r8" headers="c1"><abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only</th>
|
|
<td colspan="10"></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r9" headers="r8 c1"><abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> participants</th>
|
|
<td headers="r8 r9 c2 c4">50</td>
|
|
<td headers="r8 r9 c2 c5">224</td>
|
|
<td headers="r8 r9 c2 c6">457</td>
|
|
<td headers="r8 r9 c2 c7">627</td>
|
|
<td headers="r8 r9 c2 c8">836</td>
|
|
<td headers="r8 r9 c3 c9">1.69</td>
|
|
<td headers="r8 r9 c3 c10">2.26</td>
|
|
<td headers="r8 r9 c3 c11">2.19</td>
|
|
<td headers="r8 r9 c3 c12">2.02</td>
|
|
<td headers="r8 r9 c3 c13">2.11</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub2" id="r10" headers="r8 r9 c1">Milestone-outcome</th>
|
|
<td headers="r8 r9 r10 c2 c4">10</td>
|
|
<td headers="r8 r9 r10 c2 c5">31</td>
|
|
<td headers="r8 r9 r10 c2 c6">58</td>
|
|
<td headers="r8 r9 r10 c2 c7">74</td>
|
|
<td headers="r8 r9 r10 c2 c8">76</td>
|
|
<td headers="r8 r9 r10 c3 c9">2.07</td>
|
|
<td headers="r8 r9 r10 c3 c10">2.49</td>
|
|
<td headers="r8 r9 r10 c3 c11">2.30</td>
|
|
<td headers="r8 r9 r10 c3 c12">2.33</td>
|
|
<td headers="r8 r9 r10 c3 c13">2.06</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub2" id="r11" headers="r8 r9 c1">Outcome-only</th>
|
|
<td headers="r8 r9 r11 c2 c4">4</td>
|
|
<td headers="r8 r9 r11 c2 c5">9</td>
|
|
<td headers="r8 r9 r11 c2 c6">14</td>
|
|
<td headers="r8 r9 r11 c2 c7">12</td>
|
|
<td headers="r8 r9 r11 c2 c8">18</td>
|
|
<td headers="r8 r9 r11 c3 c9">6.56</td>
|
|
<td headers="r8 r9 r11 c3 c10">5.66</td>
|
|
<td headers="r8 r9 r11 c3 c11">4.61</td>
|
|
<td headers="r8 r9 r11 c3 c12">3.03</td>
|
|
<td headers="r8 r9 r11 c3 c13">4.02</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub2" id="r12" headers="r8 r9 c1">Traditional</th>
|
|
<td headers="r8 r9 r12 c2 c4">36</td>
|
|
<td headers="r8 r9 r12 c2 c5">184</td>
|
|
<td headers="r8 r9 r12 c2 c6">385</td>
|
|
<td headers="r8 r9 r12 c2 c7">541</td>
|
|
<td headers="r8 r9 r12 c2 c8">742</td>
|
|
<td headers="r8 r9 r12 c3 c9">1.49</td>
|
|
<td headers="r8 r9 r12 c3 c10">2.16</td>
|
|
<td headers="r8 r9 r12 c3 c11">2.13</td>
|
|
<td headers="r8 r9 r12 c3 c12">1.97</td>
|
|
<td headers="r8 r9 r12 c3 c13">2.09</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r13" headers="r8 c1">Nonparticipants</th>
|
|
<td headers="r8 r13 c2 c4">22,439</td>
|
|
<td headers="r8 r13 c2 c5">19,056</td>
|
|
<td headers="r8 r13 c2 c6">23,207</td>
|
|
<td headers="r8 r13 c2 c7">24,457</td>
|
|
<td headers="r8 r13 c2 c8">22,150</td>
|
|
<td headers="r8 r13 c3 c9">1.01</td>
|
|
<td headers="r8 r13 c3 c10">0.85</td>
|
|
<td headers="r8 r13 c3 c11">1.00</td>
|
|
<td headers="r8 r13 c3 c12">1.04</td>
|
|
<td headers="r8 r13 c3 c13">0.93</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub3" id="r14" headers="r8 r13 c1">All <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only beneficiaries</th>
|
|
<td headers="r8 r13 r14 c2 c4">22,489</td>
|
|
<td headers="r8 r13 r14 c2 c5">19,281</td>
|
|
<td headers="r8 r13 r14 c2 c6">23,665</td>
|
|
<td headers="r8 r13 r14 c2 c7">25,086</td>
|
|
<td headers="r8 r13 r14 c2 c8">22,988</td>
|
|
<td headers="r8 r13 r14 c3 c9">1.01</td>
|
|
<td headers="r8 r13 r14 c3 c10">0.86</td>
|
|
<td headers="r8 r13 r14 c3 c11">1.01</td>
|
|
<td headers="r8 r13 r14 c3 c12">1.05</td>
|
|
<td headers="r8 r13 r14 c3 c13">0.95</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r15" headers="c1">Total</th>
|
|
<td colspan="10"></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r16" headers="r15 c1"><abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> participants</th>
|
|
<td headers="r15 r16 c2 c4">271</td>
|
|
<td headers="r15 r16 c2 c5">1,313</td>
|
|
<td headers="r15 r16 c2 c6">2,878</td>
|
|
<td headers="r15 r16 c2 c7">4,523</td>
|
|
<td headers="r15 r16 c2 c8">5,046</td>
|
|
<td headers="r15 r16 c3 c9">2.35</td>
|
|
<td headers="r15 r16 c3 c10">3.38</td>
|
|
<td headers="r15 r16 c3 c11">3.61</td>
|
|
<td headers="r15 r16 c3 c12">3.87</td>
|
|
<td headers="r15 r16 c3 c13">3.38</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub2" id="r17" headers="r15 r16 c1">Milestone-outcome</th>
|
|
<td headers="r15 r16 r17 c2 c4">54</td>
|
|
<td headers="r15 r16 r17 c2 c5">226</td>
|
|
<td headers="r15 r16 r17 c2 c6">399</td>
|
|
<td headers="r15 r16 r17 c2 c7">620</td>
|
|
<td headers="r15 r16 r17 c2 c8">577</td>
|
|
<td headers="r15 r16 r17 c3 c9">3.20</td>
|
|
<td headers="r15 r16 r17 c3 c10">4.86</td>
|
|
<td headers="r15 r16 r17 c3 c11">4.30</td>
|
|
<td headers="r15 r16 r17 c3 c12">5.10</td>
|
|
<td headers="r15 r16 r17 c3 c13">4.02</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub2" id="r18" headers="r15 r16 c1">Outcome-only</th>
|
|
<td headers="r15 r16 r18 c2 c4">16</td>
|
|
<td headers="r15 r16 r18 c2 c5">114</td>
|
|
<td headers="r15 r16 r18 c2 c6">190</td>
|
|
<td headers="r15 r16 r18 c2 c7">233</td>
|
|
<td headers="r15 r16 r18 c2 c8">243</td>
|
|
<td headers="r15 r16 r18 c3 c9">4.64</td>
|
|
<td headers="r15 r16 r18 c3 c10">9.17</td>
|
|
<td headers="r15 r16 r18 c3 c11">8.76</td>
|
|
<td headers="r15 r16 r18 c3 c12">7.76</td>
|
|
<td headers="r15 r16 r18 c3 c13">6.27</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub2" id="r19" headers="r15 r16 c1">Traditional</th>
|
|
<td headers="r15 r16 r19 c2 c4">201</td>
|
|
<td headers="r15 r16 r19 c2 c5">973</td>
|
|
<td headers="r15 r16 r19 c2 c6">2,289</td>
|
|
<td headers="r15 r16 r19 c2 c7">3,670</td>
|
|
<td headers="r15 r16 r19 c2 c8">4,226</td>
|
|
<td headers="r15 r16 r19 c3 c9">2.11</td>
|
|
<td headers="r15 r16 r19 c3 c10">2.95</td>
|
|
<td headers="r15 r16 r19 c3 c11">3.35</td>
|
|
<td headers="r15 r16 r19 c3 c12">3.61</td>
|
|
<td headers="r15 r16 r19 c3 c13">3.22</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r20" headers="r15 c1">Nonparticipants</th>
|
|
<td headers="r15 r20 c2 c4">71,790</td>
|
|
<td headers="r15 r20 c2 c5">68,888</td>
|
|
<td headers="r15 r20 c2 c6">71,428</td>
|
|
<td headers="r15 r20 c2 c7">74,926</td>
|
|
<td headers="r15 r20 c2 c8">65,992</td>
|
|
<td headers="r15 r20 c3 c9">0.91</td>
|
|
<td headers="r15 r20 c3 c10">0.84</td>
|
|
<td headers="r15 r20 c3 c11">0.83</td>
|
|
<td headers="r15 r20 c3 c12">0.84</td>
|
|
<td headers="r15 r20 c3 c13">0.72</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub3" id="r21" headers="r15 r20 c1">All beneficiaries</th>
|
|
<td headers="r15 r20 r21 c2 c4">72,063</td>
|
|
<td headers="r15 r20 r21 c2 c5">70,206</td>
|
|
<td headers="r15 r20 r21 c2 c6">74,311</td>
|
|
<td headers="r15 r20 r21 c2 c7">79,546</td>
|
|
<td headers="r15 r20 r21 c2 c8">71,055</td>
|
|
<td headers="r15 r20 r21 c3 c9">0.91</td>
|
|
<td headers="r15 r20 r21 c3 c10">0.85</td>
|
|
<td headers="r15 r20 r21 c3 c11">0.86</td>
|
|
<td headers="r15 r20 r21 c3 c12">0.88</td>
|
|
<td headers="r15 r20 r21 c3 c13">0.77</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tbody>
|
|
<tfoot>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="firstNote" colspan="11">SOURCE: Analysis of <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> beneficiary records in the 2007 <abbr class="spell">TRF</abbr>.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="lastNote" colspan="11">NOTES: Counts are based on the <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> indicator. They include existing beneficiaries in January of each calendar year who were aged <span class="nobr">18–64</span>, not deceased, had at least 1 month during the year in current-pay status or with benefits suspended or terminated for work, and were in current-pay status for all 12 months in the previous calendar year. "<abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> participants" in each year include those whose most recent tickets were assigned to an <abbr class="spell">EN</abbr> in at least 1 month of the year; months during the year in which the participants' tickets were not assigned are included under this definition. "Nonparticipants" include those who never assigned tickets or whose most recent tickets were not yet assigned in that calendar year. Within each panel, <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> participants and nonparticipants comprise "All beneficiaries." Total numbers are generated by adding the number of <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only beneficiaries from the panels above. Payment title is determined in January of each calendar year. Payment system for <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> participants is determined in the month of most recent ticket assignment.
|
|
<div class="newNote">The denominators that were used to obtain the percentages (that is, the total number of <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> participants in each year, the total number of nonparticipants in each year, and the total number in each payment title category for each year) are not shown in the table.</div>
|
|
</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tfoot>
|
|
</table>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<p>In 2006, the percentage of participants with a first <abbr class="spell">STW</abbr> event varied substantially across <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> payment systems: <abbr class="spell">OO</abbr> participants had the highest percentage (6.3 percent), followed by <abbr class="spell">MO</abbr> (4.0 percent) and traditional (3.2 percent) participants. This pattern held in each year from 2002 through 2006, for both <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only participants. Among participants, we find that <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> beneficiaries were more likely to experience their first <abbr class="spell">STW</abbr> event, but the opposite was true for nonparticipants; <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only nonparticipants were more likely than <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> nonparticipants to experience their first <abbr class="spell">STW</abbr> event for work.</p>
|
|
<p>Among beneficiaries experiencing their first <abbr class="spell">STW</abbr> event, <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> participants were more likely to remain in <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> in subsequent months than nonparticipants, although there were important differences by payment title. Charts 1 and 2 highlight the experience of participants and nonparticipants with their first <abbr class="spell">STW</abbr> event in 2002, for <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only beneficiaries, respectively.<sup><a href="#mn7" id="mt7">7</a></sup> Differences between participant and nonparticipant statistics might reflect differences in the characteristics of participants and nonparticipants, but also might reflect differences in services received. For <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> beneficiaries, <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> participants were somewhat more likely than nonparticipants to be in <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> in every month after their first <abbr class="spell">STW</abbr> event (Chart 1). The difference gradually increases through the 48th month, when 43.4 percent of the <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> participants were in <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr>, compared with 34.7 percent of the nonparticipants.</p>
|
|
<div class="chartCenter">
|
|
<div class="chart700">
|
|
<div class="title" id="chart1">Chart 1.<br>Percentage of <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> beneficiaries in <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr>, by months since first <abbr class="spell">STW</abbr> event in 2002 and <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> participation status</div>
|
|
<div class="scrollChart"><img src="v71n3p83_chart01.gif" alt="Line chart with tabular version below." width="700" height="304" /></div>
|
|
<div class="table altTable"><a class="altToggle" href="">Show as table</a>
|
|
<table>
|
|
<caption><span class="tableNumber">Table equivalent for Chart 1. </span>Percentage of <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> beneficiaries in <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr>, by months since first <abbr class="spell">STW</abbr> event in 2002 and <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> participation status</caption>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:10em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="2" style="width:10em"></colgroup>
|
|
<thead>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stubHeading" scope="col">Months since first <abbr class="spell">STW</abbr> event in 2002</th>
|
|
<th scope="col"><abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> participants</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Nonparticipants</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</thead>
|
|
<tbody>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">1</th>
|
|
<td>100.0</td>
|
|
<td>100.0</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2</th>
|
|
<td>87.3</td>
|
|
<td>78.8</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">3</th>
|
|
<td>79.6</td>
|
|
<td>74.4</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">4</th>
|
|
<td>72.9</td>
|
|
<td>69.9</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">5</th>
|
|
<td>71.0</td>
|
|
<td>66.5</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">6</th>
|
|
<td>65.2</td>
|
|
<td>64.2</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">7</th>
|
|
<td>65.6</td>
|
|
<td>62.0</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">8</th>
|
|
<td>62.9</td>
|
|
<td>60.0</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">9</th>
|
|
<td>59.3</td>
|
|
<td>58.5</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">10</th>
|
|
<td>63.3</td>
|
|
<td>57.0</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">11</th>
|
|
<td>59.3</td>
|
|
<td>55.7</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">12</th>
|
|
<td>57.5</td>
|
|
<td>54.7</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">13</th>
|
|
<td>57.5</td>
|
|
<td>53.5</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">14</th>
|
|
<td>57.5</td>
|
|
<td>51.5</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">15</th>
|
|
<td>54.3</td>
|
|
<td>50.0</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">16</th>
|
|
<td>54.3</td>
|
|
<td>48.7</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">17</th>
|
|
<td>53.4</td>
|
|
<td>47.8</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">18</th>
|
|
<td>54.3</td>
|
|
<td>47.3</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">19</th>
|
|
<td>52.5</td>
|
|
<td>46.4</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">20</th>
|
|
<td>51.6</td>
|
|
<td>45.8</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">21</th>
|
|
<td>49.8</td>
|
|
<td>45.2</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">22</th>
|
|
<td>50.2</td>
|
|
<td>44.5</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">23</th>
|
|
<td>47.1</td>
|
|
<td>43.8</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">24</th>
|
|
<td>47.5</td>
|
|
<td>43.3</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">25</th>
|
|
<td>47.5</td>
|
|
<td>42.9</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">26</th>
|
|
<td>46.2</td>
|
|
<td>42.1</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">27</th>
|
|
<td>45.7</td>
|
|
<td>41.5</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">28</th>
|
|
<td>43.4</td>
|
|
<td>40.9</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">29</th>
|
|
<td>44.3</td>
|
|
<td>40.5</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">30</th>
|
|
<td>44.3</td>
|
|
<td>40.0</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">31</th>
|
|
<td>44.3</td>
|
|
<td>39.7</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">32</th>
|
|
<td>45.7</td>
|
|
<td>39.2</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">33</th>
|
|
<td>45.3</td>
|
|
<td>38.8</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">34</th>
|
|
<td>45.7</td>
|
|
<td>38.1</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">35</th>
|
|
<td>47.1</td>
|
|
<td>37.9</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">36</th>
|
|
<td>45.7</td>
|
|
<td>37.9</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">37</th>
|
|
<td>46.6</td>
|
|
<td>37.7</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">38</th>
|
|
<td>46.6</td>
|
|
<td>37.4</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">39</th>
|
|
<td>46.6</td>
|
|
<td>37.2</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">40</th>
|
|
<td>45.7</td>
|
|
<td>37.0</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">41</th>
|
|
<td>46.2</td>
|
|
<td>36.7</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">42</th>
|
|
<td>45.7</td>
|
|
<td>36.5</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">43</th>
|
|
<td>44.3</td>
|
|
<td>36.1</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">44</th>
|
|
<td>44.8</td>
|
|
<td>35.8</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">45</th>
|
|
<td>46.2</td>
|
|
<td>35.5</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">46</th>
|
|
<td>44.8</td>
|
|
<td>35.2</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">47</th>
|
|
<td>43.9</td>
|
|
<td>34.9</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">48</th>
|
|
<td>43.4</td>
|
|
<td>34.7</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tbody>
|
|
<tfoot>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="noNotes" colspan="3"> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tfoot>
|
|
</table>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<div class="firstNote">SOURCE: Analysis of <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> beneficiary records in the 2007 <abbr class="spell">TRF</abbr>.</div>
|
|
<div class="lastNote">NOTES: Sample includes <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> beneficiaries who were aged <span class="nobr">18–64</span>, not deceased in January 2002, were in current-pay status throughout 2001, and had at least 1 month during 2002 in current-pay status or with benefits suspended for work. The first <abbr class="spell">STW</abbr> event is the first month of suspension or termination for work in 2002. <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> participants are those whose most recent tickets were assigned to an <abbr class="spell">EN</abbr> in at least 1 month of 2002, even if assignment occurred after the first <abbr class="spell">STW</abbr> event. Nonparticipants are those whose tickets had not been assigned by the end of 2002. Ticket payment system is determined at the month of ticket assignment; payment title was determined in January 2002.</div>
|
|
</div>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<div class="chartCenter">
|
|
<div class="chart700">
|
|
<div class="title" id="chart2">Chart 2.<br>Percentage of <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only beneficiaries in <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr>, by months since first <abbr class="spell">STW</abbr> event in 2002 and <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> participation status</div>
|
|
<div class="scrollChart"><img src="v71n3p83_chart02.gif" alt="Line chart with tabular version below." width="700" height="303" /></div>
|
|
<div class="table altTable"><a class="altToggle" href="">Show as table</a>
|
|
<table>
|
|
<caption><span class="tableNumber">Table equivalent for Chart 2. </span>Percentage of <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only beneficiaries in <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr>, by months since first <abbr class="spell">STW</abbr> event in 2002 and <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> participation status</caption>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:10em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="2" style="width:10em"></colgroup>
|
|
<thead>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stubHeading" scope="col">Months since first <abbr class="spell">STW</abbr> event in 2002</th>
|
|
<th scope="col"><abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> participants</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Nonparticipants</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</thead>
|
|
<tbody>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">1</th>
|
|
<td>100</td>
|
|
<td>100</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2</th>
|
|
<td>64</td>
|
|
<td>77</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">3</th>
|
|
<td>60</td>
|
|
<td>74</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">4</th>
|
|
<td>48</td>
|
|
<td>72</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">5</th>
|
|
<td>46</td>
|
|
<td>69</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">6</th>
|
|
<td>50</td>
|
|
<td>69</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">7</th>
|
|
<td>48</td>
|
|
<td>67</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">8</th>
|
|
<td>48</td>
|
|
<td>64</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">9</th>
|
|
<td>50</td>
|
|
<td>62</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">10</th>
|
|
<td>50</td>
|
|
<td>60</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">11</th>
|
|
<td>50</td>
|
|
<td>58</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">12</th>
|
|
<td>50</td>
|
|
<td>54</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">13</th>
|
|
<td>44</td>
|
|
<td>48</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">14</th>
|
|
<td>38</td>
|
|
<td>34</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">15</th>
|
|
<td>38</td>
|
|
<td>23</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">16</th>
|
|
<td>36</td>
|
|
<td>15</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">17</th>
|
|
<td>30</td>
|
|
<td>12</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">18</th>
|
|
<td>34</td>
|
|
<td>12</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">19</th>
|
|
<td>32</td>
|
|
<td>11</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">20</th>
|
|
<td>32</td>
|
|
<td>10</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">21</th>
|
|
<td>28</td>
|
|
<td>10</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">22</th>
|
|
<td>30</td>
|
|
<td>9</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">23</th>
|
|
<td>24</td>
|
|
<td>9</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">24</th>
|
|
<td>34</td>
|
|
<td>9</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">25</th>
|
|
<td>28</td>
|
|
<td>9</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">26</th>
|
|
<td>32</td>
|
|
<td>8</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">27</th>
|
|
<td>28</td>
|
|
<td>8</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">28</th>
|
|
<td>22</td>
|
|
<td>8</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">29</th>
|
|
<td>20</td>
|
|
<td>8</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">30</th>
|
|
<td>24</td>
|
|
<td>8</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">31</th>
|
|
<td>22</td>
|
|
<td>7</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">32</th>
|
|
<td>20</td>
|
|
<td>7</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">33</th>
|
|
<td>22</td>
|
|
<td>7</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">34</th>
|
|
<td>18</td>
|
|
<td>7</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">35</th>
|
|
<td>20</td>
|
|
<td>7</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">36</th>
|
|
<td>16</td>
|
|
<td>7</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">37</th>
|
|
<td>18</td>
|
|
<td>7</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">38</th>
|
|
<td>18</td>
|
|
<td>6</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">39</th>
|
|
<td>16</td>
|
|
<td>6</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">40</th>
|
|
<td>16</td>
|
|
<td>6</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">41</th>
|
|
<td>18</td>
|
|
<td>6</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">42</th>
|
|
<td>18</td>
|
|
<td>6</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">43</th>
|
|
<td>16</td>
|
|
<td>6</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">44</th>
|
|
<td>16</td>
|
|
<td>6</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">45</th>
|
|
<td>16</td>
|
|
<td>6</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">46</th>
|
|
<td>16</td>
|
|
<td>6</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">47</th>
|
|
<td>16</td>
|
|
<td>6</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">48</th>
|
|
<td>14</td>
|
|
<td>6</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tbody>
|
|
<tfoot>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="noNotes" colspan="3"> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tfoot>
|
|
</table>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<div class="firstNote">SOURCE: Analysis of <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> beneficiary records in the 2007 <abbr class="spell">TRF</abbr>.</div>
|
|
<div class="lastNote">NOTES: Sample includes <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only beneficiaries who were aged <span class="nobr">18–64</span>, not deceased in January 2002, were in current-pay status throughout 2001, and had at least 1 month during 2002 in current-pay status or with benefits suspended for work. The first <abbr class="spell">STW</abbr> event is the first month of suspension or termination for work in 2002. <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> participants are those whose most recent tickets were assigned to an <abbr class="spell">EN</abbr> in at least 1 month of 2002, even if assignment occurred after the first <abbr class="spell">STW</abbr> event. Nonparticipants are those whose tickets had not been assigned by the end of 2002. Ticket payment system is determined at the month of ticket assignment; payment title was determined in January 2002.</div>
|
|
</div>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<p><abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only beneficiaries experiencing their first <abbr class="spell">STW</abbr> event were much less likely than their <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> counterparts to be in <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> in later months, and an interesting pattern emerges by <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> participation status for the <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only group (Chart 2). For the first 14 months, the percentage in <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> is higher for nonparticipants than for participants, but the percentage for nonparticipants then drops off rapidly while that for participants continues a gradual decline. The only programmatic explanation we can think of relates to the fact that <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only payments are terminated after 12 months of suspension <i>if suspension occurs for a reason other than work.</i> Perhaps <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> participants whose benefits are suspended for work are more likely to know that <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> will not terminate their benefits after the 12th month if they continue to work.<sup><a href="#mn8" id="mt8">8</a></sup> At 48 months after the first <abbr class="spell">STW</abbr> event, 14.0 percent of the <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> participants were in <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr>, compared with just 5.6 percent for nonparticipants; both values are much lower than the corresponding values for <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> beneficiaries, as shown in Chart 1 (43.4 percent and 34.7 percent, respectively).</p>
|
|
<p>Thus far, we have considered <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> months for <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> participants without regard for how long or in which months of a particular year their tickets were assigned. In what follows, we provide a more complete picture of the extent to which participants had <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> months by presenting longitudinal statistics for four annual "assignment cohorts." The analysis follows all <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> participants in the 2002 assignment cohort for 48 months after the month of ticket assignment, those in the 2003 cohort for 36 months, those in the 2004 cohort for 24 months, and those in the 2005 cohort for 12 months. The analysis includes only months in which tickets were assigned; it excludes <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> months that occurred before a ticket was assigned or after it was unassigned.</p>
|
|
<p>Fewer than 2 in 10 participants in the 2002 cohort had their first <abbr class="spell">STW</abbr> event by the 48th month after ticket assignment, but experience varied considerably by payment system (Charts 3, 4, and 5).<sup><a href="#mn9" id="mt9">9</a></sup> By the 48th month after ticket assignment, the percentage with at least 1 <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> month was highest for <abbr class="spell">OO</abbr> participants (25.1 percent, Chart 5); lower for traditional payment system participants (17.3 percent, Chart 3); and lowest for <abbr class="spell">MO</abbr> participants (16.5 percent, Chart 4).</p>
|
|
<div class="chartCenter">
|
|
<div class="chart700">
|
|
<div class="title" id="chart3">Chart 3.<br>Cumulative percentage of <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> participants under the traditional payment system with at least 1 <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> month since ticket assignment, by ticket-assignment cohort and months since assignment</div>
|
|
<div class="scrollChart"><img src="v71n3p83_chart03.gif" alt="Line chart with tabular version below." width="700" height="317" /></div>
|
|
<div class="table altTable"><a class="altToggle" href="">Show as table</a>
|
|
<table>
|
|
<caption><span class="tableNumber">Table equivalent for Chart 3. </span>Cumulative percentage of <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> participants under the traditional payment system with at least 1 <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> month since ticket assignment, by ticket-assignment cohort and months since assignment</caption>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:10em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="4" style="width:6em"></colgroup>
|
|
<thead>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th rowspan="2" class="stubHeading" scope="colgroup">Months since ticket assignment</th>
|
|
<th colspan="4" class="spanner" scope="colgroup">Ticket-assignment cohort</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th scope="col">2002</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">2003</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">2004</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">2005</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</thead>
|
|
<tbody>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">1</th>
|
|
<td>1.7</td>
|
|
<td>1.7</td>
|
|
<td>1.5</td>
|
|
<td>1.4</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2</th>
|
|
<td>2.0</td>
|
|
<td>2.0</td>
|
|
<td>1.8</td>
|
|
<td>1.7</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">3</th>
|
|
<td>2.4</td>
|
|
<td>2.4</td>
|
|
<td>2.2</td>
|
|
<td>2.0</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">4</th>
|
|
<td>2.8</td>
|
|
<td>2.8</td>
|
|
<td>2.6</td>
|
|
<td>2.3</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">5</th>
|
|
<td>3.1</td>
|
|
<td>3.2</td>
|
|
<td>2.9</td>
|
|
<td>2.6</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">6</th>
|
|
<td>3.6</td>
|
|
<td>3.6</td>
|
|
<td>3.2</td>
|
|
<td>2.9</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">7</th>
|
|
<td>4.1</td>
|
|
<td>3.9</td>
|
|
<td>3.6</td>
|
|
<td>3.2</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">8</th>
|
|
<td>4.4</td>
|
|
<td>4.3</td>
|
|
<td>4.0</td>
|
|
<td>3.6</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">9</th>
|
|
<td>4.8</td>
|
|
<td>4.6</td>
|
|
<td>4.4</td>
|
|
<td>3.9</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">10</th>
|
|
<td>5.2</td>
|
|
<td>4.9</td>
|
|
<td>4.8</td>
|
|
<td>4.1</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">11</th>
|
|
<td>5.5</td>
|
|
<td>5.3</td>
|
|
<td>5.2</td>
|
|
<td>4.5</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">12</th>
|
|
<td>6.1</td>
|
|
<td>5.8</td>
|
|
<td>5.7</td>
|
|
<td>4.9</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">13</th>
|
|
<td>6.6</td>
|
|
<td>6.2</td>
|
|
<td>6.2</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">14</th>
|
|
<td>7.0</td>
|
|
<td>6.8</td>
|
|
<td>6.7</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">15</th>
|
|
<td>7.4</td>
|
|
<td>7.3</td>
|
|
<td>7.2</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">16</th>
|
|
<td>7.8</td>
|
|
<td>7.7</td>
|
|
<td>7.6</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">17</th>
|
|
<td>8.2</td>
|
|
<td>8.0</td>
|
|
<td>8.0</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">18</th>
|
|
<td>8.7</td>
|
|
<td>8.4</td>
|
|
<td>8.5</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">19</th>
|
|
<td>9.0</td>
|
|
<td>8.8</td>
|
|
<td>8.9</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">20</th>
|
|
<td>9.3</td>
|
|
<td>9.2</td>
|
|
<td>9.2</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">21</th>
|
|
<td>9.7</td>
|
|
<td>9.6</td>
|
|
<td>9.6</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">22</th>
|
|
<td>10.0</td>
|
|
<td>10.0</td>
|
|
<td>10.0</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">23</th>
|
|
<td>10.3</td>
|
|
<td>10.4</td>
|
|
<td>10.3</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">24</th>
|
|
<td>10.6</td>
|
|
<td>10.7</td>
|
|
<td>10.6</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">25</th>
|
|
<td>10.9</td>
|
|
<td>11.0</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">26</th>
|
|
<td>11.3</td>
|
|
<td>11.3</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">27</th>
|
|
<td>11.6</td>
|
|
<td>11.6</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">28</th>
|
|
<td>11.9</td>
|
|
<td>11.9</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">29</th>
|
|
<td>12.2</td>
|
|
<td>12.2</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">30</th>
|
|
<td>12.6</td>
|
|
<td>12.4</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">31</th>
|
|
<td>12.8</td>
|
|
<td>12.7</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">32</th>
|
|
<td>13.1</td>
|
|
<td>12.9</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">33</th>
|
|
<td>13.3</td>
|
|
<td>13.2</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">34</th>
|
|
<td>13.5</td>
|
|
<td>13.4</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">35</th>
|
|
<td>13.8</td>
|
|
<td>13.6</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">36</th>
|
|
<td>14.0</td>
|
|
<td>13.7</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">37</th>
|
|
<td>14.3</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">38</th>
|
|
<td>14.5</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">39</th>
|
|
<td>14.8</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">40</th>
|
|
<td>15.0</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">41</th>
|
|
<td>15.2</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">42</th>
|
|
<td>15.5</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">43</th>
|
|
<td>15.6</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">44</th>
|
|
<td>15.8</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">45</th>
|
|
<td>16.0</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">46</th>
|
|
<td>16.2</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">47</th>
|
|
<td>16.3</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">48</th>
|
|
<td>16.5</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tbody>
|
|
<tfoot>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="noNotes" colspan="5"> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tfoot>
|
|
</table>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<div class="firstNote">SOURCE: Analysis of <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> beneficiary records in the 2007 <abbr class="spell">TRF</abbr>.</div>
|
|
<div class="lastNote">NOTES: Sample includes <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> participants who, as of December 2005, had most recently assigned their tickets under the traditional payment system; payment system and payment title are determined in the month of ticket assignment. The first month observed is the month in which the ticket was assigned. Months in which tickets were unassigned are excluded.</div>
|
|
</div>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<div class="chartCenter">
|
|
<div class="chart700">
|
|
<div class="title" id="chart4">Chart 4.<br>Cumulative percentage of <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> participants under the <abbr class="spell">MO</abbr> payment system with at least 1 <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> month since ticket assignment, by ticket-assignment cohort and months since assignment</div>
|
|
<div class="scrollChart"><img src="v71n3p83_chart04.gif" alt="Line chart with tabular version below." width="700" height="315" /></div>
|
|
<div class="table altTable"><a class="altToggle" href="">Show as table</a>
|
|
<table>
|
|
<caption><span class="tableNumber">Table equivalent for Chart 4. </span>Cumulative percentage of <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> participants under the <abbr class="spell">MO</abbr> payment system with at least 1 <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> month since ticket assignment, by ticket-assignment cohort and months since assignment</caption>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:10em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="4" style="width:6em"></colgroup>
|
|
<thead>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th rowspan="2" class="stubHeading" scope="colgroup">Months since ticket assignment</th>
|
|
<th colspan="4" class="spanner" scope="colgroup">Ticket-assignment cohort</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th scope="col">2002</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">2003</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">2004</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">2005</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</thead>
|
|
<tbody>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">1</th>
|
|
<td>2.8</td>
|
|
<td>2.6</td>
|
|
<td>2.2</td>
|
|
<td>1.6</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2</th>
|
|
<td>3.3</td>
|
|
<td>3.2</td>
|
|
<td>2.6</td>
|
|
<td>2.0</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">3</th>
|
|
<td>3.7</td>
|
|
<td>3.6</td>
|
|
<td>3.0</td>
|
|
<td>2.5</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">4</th>
|
|
<td>4.3</td>
|
|
<td>4.2</td>
|
|
<td>3.6</td>
|
|
<td>2.9</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">5</th>
|
|
<td>4.8</td>
|
|
<td>4.5</td>
|
|
<td>4.1</td>
|
|
<td>3.3</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">6</th>
|
|
<td>5.5</td>
|
|
<td>5.2</td>
|
|
<td>4.4</td>
|
|
<td>3.7</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">7</th>
|
|
<td>5.8</td>
|
|
<td>5.6</td>
|
|
<td>4.8</td>
|
|
<td>4.1</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">8</th>
|
|
<td>6.1</td>
|
|
<td>6.2</td>
|
|
<td>5.3</td>
|
|
<td>4.5</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">9</th>
|
|
<td>7.0</td>
|
|
<td>6.5</td>
|
|
<td>5.8</td>
|
|
<td>4.7</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">10</th>
|
|
<td>7.7</td>
|
|
<td>7.1</td>
|
|
<td>6.4</td>
|
|
<td>5.3</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">11</th>
|
|
<td>8.5</td>
|
|
<td>7.5</td>
|
|
<td>6.8</td>
|
|
<td>5.8</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">12</th>
|
|
<td>9.1</td>
|
|
<td>8.0</td>
|
|
<td>7.5</td>
|
|
<td>6.5</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">13</th>
|
|
<td>9.5</td>
|
|
<td>8.5</td>
|
|
<td>8.1</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">14</th>
|
|
<td>10.5</td>
|
|
<td>9.2</td>
|
|
<td>8.7</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">15</th>
|
|
<td>11.1</td>
|
|
<td>9.7</td>
|
|
<td>9.4</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">16</th>
|
|
<td>11.6</td>
|
|
<td>10.3</td>
|
|
<td>9.9</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">17</th>
|
|
<td>12.0</td>
|
|
<td>10.7</td>
|
|
<td>10.4</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">18</th>
|
|
<td>12.3</td>
|
|
<td>11.2</td>
|
|
<td>10.8</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">19</th>
|
|
<td>12.6</td>
|
|
<td>11.8</td>
|
|
<td>11.4</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">20</th>
|
|
<td>12.7</td>
|
|
<td>12.0</td>
|
|
<td>11.8</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">21</th>
|
|
<td>13.1</td>
|
|
<td>12.5</td>
|
|
<td>12.1</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">22</th>
|
|
<td>13.4</td>
|
|
<td>12.9</td>
|
|
<td>12.4</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">23</th>
|
|
<td>13.7</td>
|
|
<td>13.1</td>
|
|
<td>12.7</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">24</th>
|
|
<td>13.8</td>
|
|
<td>13.3</td>
|
|
<td>12.9</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">25</th>
|
|
<td>14.0</td>
|
|
<td>13.8</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">26</th>
|
|
<td>14.3</td>
|
|
<td>14.0</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">27</th>
|
|
<td>14.5</td>
|
|
<td>14.2</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">28</th>
|
|
<td>14.6</td>
|
|
<td>14.4</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">29</th>
|
|
<td>15.0</td>
|
|
<td>14.5</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">30</th>
|
|
<td>15.2</td>
|
|
<td>14.7</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">31</th>
|
|
<td>15.5</td>
|
|
<td>14.9</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">32</th>
|
|
<td>15.8</td>
|
|
<td>15.0</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">33</th>
|
|
<td>15.8</td>
|
|
<td>15.2</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">34</th>
|
|
<td>15.9</td>
|
|
<td>15.4</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">35</th>
|
|
<td>16.1</td>
|
|
<td>15.5</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">36</th>
|
|
<td>16.1</td>
|
|
<td>15.7</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">37</th>
|
|
<td>16.2</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">38</th>
|
|
<td>16.3</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">39</th>
|
|
<td>16.5</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">40</th>
|
|
<td>16.7</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">41</th>
|
|
<td>16.8</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">42</th>
|
|
<td>16.9</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">43</th>
|
|
<td>16.9</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">44</th>
|
|
<td>17.0</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">45</th>
|
|
<td>17.1</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">46</th>
|
|
<td>17.1</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">47</th>
|
|
<td>17.3</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">48</th>
|
|
<td>17.3</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tbody>
|
|
<tfoot>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="noNotes" colspan="5"> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tfoot>
|
|
</table>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<div class="firstNote">SOURCE: Analysis of <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> beneficiary records in the 2007 <abbr class="spell">TRF</abbr>.</div>
|
|
<div class="lastNote">NOTES: Sample includes <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> participants who, as of December 2005, had most recently assigned their tickets under the <abbr class="spell">MO</abbr> payment system; payment system and payment title are determined in the month of ticket assignment. The first month observed is the month in which the ticket was assigned. Months in which tickets were unassigned are excluded.</div>
|
|
</div>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<div class="chartCenter">
|
|
<div class="chart700">
|
|
<div class="title" id="chart5">Chart 5.<br>Cumulative percentage of <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> participants under the <abbr class="spell">OO</abbr> payment system with at least 1 <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> month since ticket assignment, by ticket-assignment cohort and months since assignment</div>
|
|
<div class="scrollChart"><img src="v71n3p83_chart05.gif" alt="Line chart with tabular version below." width="700" height="315" /></div>
|
|
<div class="table altTable"><a class="altToggle" href="">Show as table</a>
|
|
<table>
|
|
<caption><span class="tableNumber">Table equivalent for Chart 5. </span>Cumulative percentage of <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> participants under the <abbr class="spell">OO</abbr> payment system with at least 1 <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> month since ticket assignment, by ticket-assignment cohort and months since assignment</caption>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:10em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="4" style="width:6em"></colgroup>
|
|
<thead>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th rowspan="2" class="stubHeading" scope="colgroup">Months since ticket assignment</th>
|
|
<th colspan="4" class="spanner" scope="colgroup">Ticket-assignment cohort</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th scope="col">2002</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">2003</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">2004</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">2005</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</thead>
|
|
<tbody>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">1</th>
|
|
<td>3.6</td>
|
|
<td>5.0</td>
|
|
<td>4.2</td>
|
|
<td>4.0</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2</th>
|
|
<td>4.8</td>
|
|
<td>5.8</td>
|
|
<td>4.8</td>
|
|
<td>4.8</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">3</th>
|
|
<td>6.3</td>
|
|
<td>6.6</td>
|
|
<td>5.8</td>
|
|
<td>5.7</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">4</th>
|
|
<td>7.2</td>
|
|
<td>8.0</td>
|
|
<td>6.8</td>
|
|
<td>6.5</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">5</th>
|
|
<td>7.2</td>
|
|
<td>9.0</td>
|
|
<td>8.1</td>
|
|
<td>7.7</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">6</th>
|
|
<td>8.2</td>
|
|
<td>9.9</td>
|
|
<td>9.1</td>
|
|
<td>8.3</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">7</th>
|
|
<td>8.9</td>
|
|
<td>10.4</td>
|
|
<td>9.4</td>
|
|
<td>9.0</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">8</th>
|
|
<td>9.2</td>
|
|
<td>10.9</td>
|
|
<td>10.1</td>
|
|
<td>9.2</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">9</th>
|
|
<td>10.4</td>
|
|
<td>12.0</td>
|
|
<td>10.8</td>
|
|
<td>10.0</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">10</th>
|
|
<td>10.4</td>
|
|
<td>13.0</td>
|
|
<td>11.2</td>
|
|
<td>10.4</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">11</th>
|
|
<td>10.9</td>
|
|
<td>13.9</td>
|
|
<td>12.1</td>
|
|
<td>11.5</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">12</th>
|
|
<td>12.3</td>
|
|
<td>14.7</td>
|
|
<td>13.0</td>
|
|
<td>12.9</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">13</th>
|
|
<td>13.8</td>
|
|
<td>16.1</td>
|
|
<td>14.5</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">14</th>
|
|
<td>14.5</td>
|
|
<td>17.1</td>
|
|
<td>15.5</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">15</th>
|
|
<td>15.7</td>
|
|
<td>17.3</td>
|
|
<td>16.2</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">16</th>
|
|
<td>16.2</td>
|
|
<td>18.4</td>
|
|
<td>16.6</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">17</th>
|
|
<td>16.7</td>
|
|
<td>19.5</td>
|
|
<td>17.4</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">18</th>
|
|
<td>17.1</td>
|
|
<td>20.0</td>
|
|
<td>18.2</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">19</th>
|
|
<td>18.4</td>
|
|
<td>20.5</td>
|
|
<td>18.6</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">20</th>
|
|
<td>18.6</td>
|
|
<td>20.7</td>
|
|
<td>19.1</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">21</th>
|
|
<td>18.6</td>
|
|
<td>20.9</td>
|
|
<td>19.4</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">22</th>
|
|
<td>19.1</td>
|
|
<td>21.3</td>
|
|
<td>19.8</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">23</th>
|
|
<td>19.3</td>
|
|
<td>21.8</td>
|
|
<td>20.3</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">24</th>
|
|
<td>20.3</td>
|
|
<td>22.6</td>
|
|
<td>20.5</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">25</th>
|
|
<td>20.3</td>
|
|
<td>23.1</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">26</th>
|
|
<td>20.5</td>
|
|
<td>23.6</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">27</th>
|
|
<td>20.8</td>
|
|
<td>23.7</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">28</th>
|
|
<td>21.0</td>
|
|
<td>24.0</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">29</th>
|
|
<td>21.0</td>
|
|
<td>24.5</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">30</th>
|
|
<td>21.0</td>
|
|
<td>24.5</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">31</th>
|
|
<td>21.3</td>
|
|
<td>24.8</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">32</th>
|
|
<td>21.7</td>
|
|
<td>25.1</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">33</th>
|
|
<td>22.0</td>
|
|
<td>25.3</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">34</th>
|
|
<td>22.0</td>
|
|
<td>25.3</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">35</th>
|
|
<td>22.0</td>
|
|
<td>25.5</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">36</th>
|
|
<td>22.9</td>
|
|
<td>25.7</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">37</th>
|
|
<td>23.2</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">38</th>
|
|
<td>23.4</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">39</th>
|
|
<td>23.9</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">40</th>
|
|
<td>24.2</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">41</th>
|
|
<td>24.4</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">42</th>
|
|
<td>24.9</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">43</th>
|
|
<td>24.9</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">44</th>
|
|
<td>24.9</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">45</th>
|
|
<td>24.9</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">46</th>
|
|
<td>24.9</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">47</th>
|
|
<td>25.1</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">48</th>
|
|
<td>25.1</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
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<td> </td>
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</tr>
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</tbody>
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<tfoot>
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<tr>
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<td class="noNotes" colspan="5"> </td>
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</tr>
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</tfoot>
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</table>
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</div>
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<div class="firstNote">SOURCE: Analysis of <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> beneficiary records in the 2007 <abbr class="spell">TRF</abbr>.</div>
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<div class="lastNote">NOTES: Sample includes <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> participants who, as of December 2005, had most recently assigned their tickets under the <abbr class="spell">OO</abbr> payment system; payment system and payment title are determined in the month of ticket assignment. The first month observed is the month in which the ticket was assigned. Months in which tickets were unassigned are excluded.</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<p>The experiences of more recent cohorts have differed somewhat from earlier ones, at least to the extent they have been observed. For the traditional and <abbr class="spell">MO</abbr> payment systems, the percentages of the 2005 cohort that experienced their first <abbr class="spell">STW</abbr> event by the 12th month after ticket assignment were lower (4.9 percent for the traditional system and 6.6 percent for the <abbr class="spell">MO</abbr> system) than for the 2002 cohort (6.1 percent for the traditional system and 9.1 percent for the <abbr class="spell">MO</abbr> system). These patterns suggest that the percentages of later cohorts experiencing their first <abbr class="spell">STW</abbr> event by the 48th month under these payment systems will be lower than those for the 2002 cohort.</p>
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<p>The pattern across cohorts for <abbr class="spell">OO</abbr> participants is different, however (Chart 5). The 2002, 2004, and 2005 cohorts all have nearly identical percentages at the <span class="nobr">12-month</span> mark (12.3, 12.9, and 12.9 percent, respectively), while the percentage for the 2003 cohort is higher (14.7 percent). The differences across cohorts might reflect variation in experiences across states, as the 2002 cohort only includes those persons residing in the states included in the first phase of the <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> rollout, the 2003 cohort includes those in the first and second phase states, and the 2004 cohort includes those in all states. We also note that the severe recession, which started in December 2007 (after our sample period), quite likely has been detrimental to outcomes for the 2004 and 2005 cohorts within their <span class="nobr">48-month</span> windows.</p>
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<p>Within a given payment system, the likelihood of being off the rolls for at least 1 month tended to be slightly higher for <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> than for <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only beneficiaries by the end of the 48th month after ticket assignment (not shown). This difference was most pronounced among participants under the traditional payment system (17.0 percent for <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> and 15.3 percent for <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only) and <abbr class="spell">MO</abbr> payment system (18.8 percent for <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> and 14.2 percent for <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only). Among <abbr class="spell">OO</abbr> participants, the difference was much smaller (25.6 percent for <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> and 25.1 percent for <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only).</p>
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<p>Charts 6, 7, and 8 plot the share of months in which participants who had at least 1 <abbr class="spell">STW</abbr> event remained in <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr>, starting from their first <abbr class="spell">STW</abbr> event. These charts follow all cohorts of participants who experienced their first <abbr class="spell">STW</abbr> event in the same calendar year ("exit cohorts"), as opposed to the assignment cohorts shown in the previous three charts.<sup><a href="#mn10" id="mt10">10</a></sup> The first month observed is the first <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> month.</p>
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<div class="chartCenter">
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<div class="chart700">
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<div class="title" id="chart6">Chart 6.<br>Percentage of <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> participants under the traditional payment system in <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr>, by months since first <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> month after ticket assignment and year of first <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> month after ticket assignment (exit cohort)</div>
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<div class="scrollChart"><img src="v71n3p83_chart06.gif" alt="Line chart with tabular version below." width="700" height="296" /></div>
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<div class="table altTable"><a class="altToggle" href="">Show as table</a>
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<table>
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<caption><span class="tableNumber">Table equivalent for Chart 6. </span>Percentage of <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> participants under the traditional payment system in <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr>, by months since first <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> month after ticket assignment and year of first <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> month after ticket assignment (exit cohort)</caption>
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|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:10em"></colgroup>
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|
<colgroup span="4" style="width:6em"></colgroup>
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<thead>
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<tr>
|
|
<th rowspan="2" class="stubHeading" scope="colgroup">Months since first <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> month after ticket assignment</th>
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|
<th colspan="4" class="spanner" scope="colgroup">Exit cohort</th>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<th scope="col">2002</th>
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<th scope="col">2003</th>
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<th scope="col">2004</th>
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<th scope="col">2005</th>
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</tr>
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</thead>
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<tbody>
|
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<tr>
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<th class="stub0" scope="row">1</th>
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<td>100.0</td>
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<td>100.0</td>
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<td>100.0</td>
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<td>100.0</td>
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</tr>
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|
<tr>
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<th class="stub0" scope="row">2</th>
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|
<td>81.5</td>
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|
<td>81.3</td>
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<td>79.3</td>
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<td>81.3</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<th class="stub0" scope="row">3</th>
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|
<td>77.6</td>
|
|
<td>76.8</td>
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|
<td>76.8</td>
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|
<td>77.9</td>
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|
</tr>
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|
<tr>
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|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">4</th>
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|
<td>71.3</td>
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|
<td>73.4</td>
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|
<td>73.9</td>
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<td>75.4</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<th class="stub0" scope="row">5</th>
|
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<td>70.1</td>
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<td>70.1</td>
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<td>70.4</td>
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<td>71.7</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
|
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<th class="stub0" scope="row">6</th>
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<td>66.3</td>
|
|
<td>68.9</td>
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<td>69.2</td>
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|
<td>70.7</td>
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|
</tr>
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<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">7</th>
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|
<td>65.7</td>
|
|
<td>68.6</td>
|
|
<td>69.5</td>
|
|
<td>69.3</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">8</th>
|
|
<td>62.1</td>
|
|
<td>66.9</td>
|
|
<td>66.8</td>
|
|
<td>66.4</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">9</th>
|
|
<td>61.2</td>
|
|
<td>66.4</td>
|
|
<td>65.0</td>
|
|
<td>65.2</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">10</th>
|
|
<td>62.1</td>
|
|
<td>63.7</td>
|
|
<td>63.9</td>
|
|
<td>63.7</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">11</th>
|
|
<td>61.5</td>
|
|
<td>62.5</td>
|
|
<td>62.1</td>
|
|
<td>60.8</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">12</th>
|
|
<td>57.6</td>
|
|
<td>61.5</td>
|
|
<td>61.0</td>
|
|
<td>60.8</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">13</th>
|
|
<td>57.6</td>
|
|
<td>61.5</td>
|
|
<td>60.1</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">14</th>
|
|
<td>55.5</td>
|
|
<td>59.1</td>
|
|
<td>57.6</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">15</th>
|
|
<td>54.0</td>
|
|
<td>57.5</td>
|
|
<td>55.7</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">16</th>
|
|
<td>53.7</td>
|
|
<td>55.4</td>
|
|
<td>55.1</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">17</th>
|
|
<td>51.6</td>
|
|
<td>55.0</td>
|
|
<td>52.5</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">18</th>
|
|
<td>52.5</td>
|
|
<td>53.1</td>
|
|
<td>52.2</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">19</th>
|
|
<td>52.5</td>
|
|
<td>52.0</td>
|
|
<td>51.6</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">20</th>
|
|
<td>50.7</td>
|
|
<td>51.5</td>
|
|
<td>50.0</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">21</th>
|
|
<td>49.8</td>
|
|
<td>50.5</td>
|
|
<td>49.7</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">22</th>
|
|
<td>48.4</td>
|
|
<td>50.1</td>
|
|
<td>49.4</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">23</th>
|
|
<td>49.3</td>
|
|
<td>48.7</td>
|
|
<td>48.9</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">24</th>
|
|
<td>48.4</td>
|
|
<td>48.8</td>
|
|
<td>48.4</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">25</th>
|
|
<td>49.3</td>
|
|
<td>48.4</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">26</th>
|
|
<td>48.7</td>
|
|
<td>46.7</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">27</th>
|
|
<td>47.5</td>
|
|
<td>46.5</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">28</th>
|
|
<td>48.1</td>
|
|
<td>45.8</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">29</th>
|
|
<td>48.1</td>
|
|
<td>45.3</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">30</th>
|
|
<td>49.3</td>
|
|
<td>45.2</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">31</th>
|
|
<td>49.0</td>
|
|
<td>44.1</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">32</th>
|
|
<td>49.6</td>
|
|
<td>43.1</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">33</th>
|
|
<td>48.1</td>
|
|
<td>42.9</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">34</th>
|
|
<td>46.3</td>
|
|
<td>42.5</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">35</th>
|
|
<td>46.3</td>
|
|
<td>42.4</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">36</th>
|
|
<td>44.5</td>
|
|
<td>42.2</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">37</th>
|
|
<td>45.7</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">38</th>
|
|
<td>45.1</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">39</th>
|
|
<td>44.2</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">40</th>
|
|
<td>41.8</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">41</th>
|
|
<td>42.4</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">42</th>
|
|
<td>41.5</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">43</th>
|
|
<td>41.8</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">44</th>
|
|
<td>41.2</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">45</th>
|
|
<td>42.7</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">46</th>
|
|
<td>42.4</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">47</th>
|
|
<td>42.4</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">48</th>
|
|
<td>40.9</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr class="shaded">
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">N</th>
|
|
<td>335</td>
|
|
<td>1436</td>
|
|
<td>3170</td>
|
|
<td>4741</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tbody>
|
|
<tfoot>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="noNotes" colspan="5"> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tfoot>
|
|
</table>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<div class="firstNote">SOURCE: Analysis of <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> beneficiary records in the 2007 <abbr class="spell">TRF</abbr>.</div>
|
|
<div class="lastNote">NOTES: Sample includes participants who, as of December 2005, had most recently assigned their tickets under the traditional payment system and had a least 1 <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> month during the observation period for their assignment cohort. Each line represents the experience of those who had their first <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> month after ticket assignment in the year indicated. The first month observed is the first <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> month. Months in which tickets were unassigned are excluded.</div>
|
|
</div>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<div class="chartCenter">
|
|
<div class="chart700">
|
|
<div class="title" id="chart7">Chart 7.<br>Percentage of <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> participants under the <abbr class="spell">MO</abbr> payment system in <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr>, by months since first <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> month after ticket assignment and year of first <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> month after ticket assignment (exit cohort)</div>
|
|
<div class="scrollChart"><img src="v71n3p83_chart07.gif" alt="Line chart with tabular version below." width="700" height="301" /></div>
|
|
<div class="table altTable"><a class="altToggle" href="">Show as table</a>
|
|
<table>
|
|
<caption><span class="tableNumber">Table equivalent for Chart 7. </span>Percentage of <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> participants under the <abbr class="spell">MO</abbr> payment system in <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr>, by months since first <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> month after ticket assignment and year of first <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> month after ticket assignment (exit cohort)</caption>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:10em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="4" style="width:6em"></colgroup>
|
|
<thead>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th rowspan="2" class="stubHeading" scope="colgroup">Months since first <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> month after ticket assignment</th>
|
|
<th colspan="4" class="spanner" scope="colgroup">Exit cohort</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th scope="col">2002</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">2003</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">2004</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">2005</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</thead>
|
|
<tbody>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">1</th>
|
|
<td>100.0</td>
|
|
<td>100.0</td>
|
|
<td>100.0</td>
|
|
<td>100.0</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2</th>
|
|
<td>75.7</td>
|
|
<td>83.1</td>
|
|
<td>79.4</td>
|
|
<td>83.2</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">3</th>
|
|
<td>72.8</td>
|
|
<td>82.1</td>
|
|
<td>75.9</td>
|
|
<td>81.0</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">4</th>
|
|
<td>68.9</td>
|
|
<td>74.3</td>
|
|
<td>73.1</td>
|
|
<td>77.0</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">5</th>
|
|
<td>66.0</td>
|
|
<td>73.3</td>
|
|
<td>71.4</td>
|
|
<td>73.8</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">6</th>
|
|
<td>62.1</td>
|
|
<td>72.6</td>
|
|
<td>68.7</td>
|
|
<td>73.1</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">7</th>
|
|
<td>64.1</td>
|
|
<td>69.4</td>
|
|
<td>66.5</td>
|
|
<td>71.3</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">8</th>
|
|
<td>58.3</td>
|
|
<td>67.1</td>
|
|
<td>65.2</td>
|
|
<td>68.0</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">9</th>
|
|
<td>53.4</td>
|
|
<td>66.4</td>
|
|
<td>64.8</td>
|
|
<td>65.7</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">10</th>
|
|
<td>53.4</td>
|
|
<td>64.8</td>
|
|
<td>63.4</td>
|
|
<td>61.9</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">11</th>
|
|
<td>53.4</td>
|
|
<td>63.5</td>
|
|
<td>60.2</td>
|
|
<td>61.8</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">12</th>
|
|
<td>54.4</td>
|
|
<td>64.5</td>
|
|
<td>61.4</td>
|
|
<td>63.0</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">13</th>
|
|
<td>55.3</td>
|
|
<td>60.9</td>
|
|
<td>60.6</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">14</th>
|
|
<td>49.5</td>
|
|
<td>58.3</td>
|
|
<td>57.6</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">15</th>
|
|
<td>45.6</td>
|
|
<td>57.3</td>
|
|
<td>55.9</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">16</th>
|
|
<td>45.6</td>
|
|
<td>56.0</td>
|
|
<td>54.0</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">17</th>
|
|
<td>43.7</td>
|
|
<td>57.0</td>
|
|
<td>51.7</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">18</th>
|
|
<td>43.7</td>
|
|
<td>57.0</td>
|
|
<td>51.9</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">19</th>
|
|
<td>43.7</td>
|
|
<td>54.7</td>
|
|
<td>47.7</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">20</th>
|
|
<td>43.7</td>
|
|
<td>53.4</td>
|
|
<td>47.3</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">21</th>
|
|
<td>42.7</td>
|
|
<td>52.4</td>
|
|
<td>46.4</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">22</th>
|
|
<td>43.7</td>
|
|
<td>50.2</td>
|
|
<td>46.0</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">23</th>
|
|
<td>39.8</td>
|
|
<td>48.9</td>
|
|
<td>47.0</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">24</th>
|
|
<td>41.7</td>
|
|
<td>48.9</td>
|
|
<td>47.5</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">25</th>
|
|
<td>39.8</td>
|
|
<td>48.5</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">26</th>
|
|
<td>37.9</td>
|
|
<td>46.3</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">27</th>
|
|
<td>37.9</td>
|
|
<td>46.6</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">28</th>
|
|
<td>34.0</td>
|
|
<td>46.6</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">29</th>
|
|
<td>35.0</td>
|
|
<td>45.3</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">30</th>
|
|
<td>32.0</td>
|
|
<td>44.0</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">31</th>
|
|
<td>32.0</td>
|
|
<td>43.6</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">32</th>
|
|
<td>31.1</td>
|
|
<td>45.3</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">33</th>
|
|
<td>32.0</td>
|
|
<td>43.0</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">34</th>
|
|
<td>32.0</td>
|
|
<td>42.7</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">35</th>
|
|
<td>31.1</td>
|
|
<td>42.7</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">36</th>
|
|
<td>32.0</td>
|
|
<td>43.3</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">37</th>
|
|
<td>30.1</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">38</th>
|
|
<td>27.2</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">39</th>
|
|
<td>26.2</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">40</th>
|
|
<td>25.2</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">41</th>
|
|
<td>24.3</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">42</th>
|
|
<td>22.3</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">43</th>
|
|
<td>22.3</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">44</th>
|
|
<td>23.3</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">45</th>
|
|
<td>24.3</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">46</th>
|
|
<td>25.2</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">47</th>
|
|
<td>25.2</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">48</th>
|
|
<td>24.3</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr class="shaded">
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">N</th>
|
|
<td>103</td>
|
|
<td>307</td>
|
|
<td>528</td>
|
|
<td>691</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tbody>
|
|
<tfoot>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="noNotes" colspan="5"> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tfoot>
|
|
</table>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<div class="firstNote">SOURCE: Analysis of <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> beneficiary records in the 2007 <abbr class="spell">TRF</abbr>.</div>
|
|
<div class="lastNote">NOTES: Sample includes participants who, as of December 2005, had most recently assigned their tickets under the <abbr class="spell">MO</abbr> payment system and had a least 1 <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> month during the observation period for their assignment cohort. Each line represents the experience of those who had their first <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> month after ticket assignment in the year indicated. The first month observed is the first <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> month. Months in which tickets were unassigned are excluded.</div>
|
|
</div>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<div class="chartCenter">
|
|
<div class="chart700">
|
|
<div class="title" id="chart8">Chart 8.<br>Percentage of <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> participants under the <abbr class="spell">OO</abbr> payment system in <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr>, by months since first <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> month after ticket assignment and year of first <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> month after ticket assignment (exit cohort)</div>
|
|
<div class="scrollChart"><img src="v71n3p83_chart08.gif" alt="Line chart with tabular version below." width="700" height="301" /></div>
|
|
<div class="table altTable"><a class="altToggle" href="">Show as table</a>
|
|
<table>
|
|
<caption><span class="tableNumber">Table equivalent for Chart 8. </span>Percentage of <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> participants under the <abbr class="spell">OO</abbr> payment system in <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr>, by months since first <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> month after ticket assignment and year of first <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> month after ticket assignment (exit cohort)</caption>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:10em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="4" style="width:6em"></colgroup>
|
|
<thead>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th rowspan="2" class="stubHeading" scope="colgroup">Months since first <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> month after ticket assignment</th>
|
|
<th colspan="4" class="spanner" scope="colgroup">Exit cohort</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th scope="col">2002</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">2003</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">2004</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">2005</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</thead>
|
|
<tbody>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">1</th>
|
|
<td>100.0</td>
|
|
<td>100.0</td>
|
|
<td>100.0</td>
|
|
<td>100.0</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2</th>
|
|
<td>82.8</td>
|
|
<td>94.2</td>
|
|
<td>84.7</td>
|
|
<td>87.0</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">3</th>
|
|
<td>79.3</td>
|
|
<td>89.8</td>
|
|
<td>81.5</td>
|
|
<td>82.0</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">4</th>
|
|
<td>75.9</td>
|
|
<td>81.0</td>
|
|
<td>79.7</td>
|
|
<td>80.8</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">5</th>
|
|
<td>75.9</td>
|
|
<td>81.8</td>
|
|
<td>77.0</td>
|
|
<td>78.5</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">6</th>
|
|
<td>79.3</td>
|
|
<td>81.8</td>
|
|
<td>76.1</td>
|
|
<td>78.5</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">7</th>
|
|
<td>62.1</td>
|
|
<td>79.6</td>
|
|
<td>76.1</td>
|
|
<td>76.6</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">8</th>
|
|
<td>62.1</td>
|
|
<td>77.4</td>
|
|
<td>72.1</td>
|
|
<td>75.1</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">9</th>
|
|
<td>69.0</td>
|
|
<td>76.6</td>
|
|
<td>70.7</td>
|
|
<td>72.8</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">10</th>
|
|
<td>69.0</td>
|
|
<td>76.6</td>
|
|
<td>69.4</td>
|
|
<td>71.3</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">11</th>
|
|
<td>65.5</td>
|
|
<td>73.0</td>
|
|
<td>66.2</td>
|
|
<td>69.3</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">12</th>
|
|
<td>65.5</td>
|
|
<td>70.1</td>
|
|
<td>66.2</td>
|
|
<td>69.0</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">13</th>
|
|
<td>65.5</td>
|
|
<td>71.5</td>
|
|
<td>66.2</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">14</th>
|
|
<td>62.1</td>
|
|
<td>67.2</td>
|
|
<td>64.9</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">15</th>
|
|
<td>62.1</td>
|
|
<td>65.7</td>
|
|
<td>63.5</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">16</th>
|
|
<td>58.6</td>
|
|
<td>65.7</td>
|
|
<td>64.0</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">17</th>
|
|
<td>62.1</td>
|
|
<td>65.7</td>
|
|
<td>65.8</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">18</th>
|
|
<td>62.1</td>
|
|
<td>64.2</td>
|
|
<td>64.0</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">19</th>
|
|
<td>58.6</td>
|
|
<td>63.5</td>
|
|
<td>63.1</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">20</th>
|
|
<td>55.2</td>
|
|
<td>63.5</td>
|
|
<td>62.2</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">21</th>
|
|
<td>55.2</td>
|
|
<td>61.3</td>
|
|
<td>60.4</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">22</th>
|
|
<td>55.2</td>
|
|
<td>59.1</td>
|
|
<td>59.9</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">23</th>
|
|
<td>51.7</td>
|
|
<td>57.7</td>
|
|
<td>57.7</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">24</th>
|
|
<td>55.2</td>
|
|
<td>59.9</td>
|
|
<td>58.6</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">25</th>
|
|
<td>51.7</td>
|
|
<td>57.7</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">26</th>
|
|
<td>55.2</td>
|
|
<td>59.1</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">27</th>
|
|
<td>55.2</td>
|
|
<td>60.6</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">28</th>
|
|
<td>51.7</td>
|
|
<td>59.1</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">29</th>
|
|
<td>48.3</td>
|
|
<td>59.9</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">30</th>
|
|
<td>48.3</td>
|
|
<td>58.4</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">31</th>
|
|
<td>44.8</td>
|
|
<td>59.9</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">32</th>
|
|
<td>44.8</td>
|
|
<td>58.4</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">33</th>
|
|
<td>48.3</td>
|
|
<td>57.7</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">34</th>
|
|
<td>51.7</td>
|
|
<td>57.7</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">35</th>
|
|
<td>55.2</td>
|
|
<td>55.5</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">36</th>
|
|
<td>55.2</td>
|
|
<td>55.5</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">37</th>
|
|
<td>62.1</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">38</th>
|
|
<td>69.0</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">39</th>
|
|
<td>65.5</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">40</th>
|
|
<td>62.1</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">41</th>
|
|
<td>62.1</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">42</th>
|
|
<td>62.1</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">43</th>
|
|
<td>58.6</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">44</th>
|
|
<td>58.6</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">45</th>
|
|
<td>55.2</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">46</th>
|
|
<td>48.3</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">47</th>
|
|
<td>48.3</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">48</th>
|
|
<td>48.3</td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr class="shaded">
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">N</th>
|
|
<td>29</td>
|
|
<td>137</td>
|
|
<td>222</td>
|
|
<td>261</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tbody>
|
|
<tfoot>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="noNotes" colspan="5"> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tfoot>
|
|
</table>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<div class="firstNote">SOURCE: Analysis of <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> beneficiary records in the 2007 <abbr class="spell">TRF</abbr>.</div>
|
|
<div class="lastNote">NOTES: Sample includes participants who, as of December 2005, had most recently assigned their tickets under the <abbr class="spell">OO</abbr> payment system and had a least 1 <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> month during the observation period for their assignment cohort. Each line represents the experience of those who had their first <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> month after ticket assignment in the year indicated. The first month observed is the first <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> month. Months in which tickets were unassigned are excluded.</div>
|
|
</div>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<p>Participants under the <abbr class="spell">OO</abbr> payment system were the most likely to remain in <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr>. For those in the 2002 exit cohort, 48.3 percent of <abbr class="spell">OO</abbr> participants were in <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> in month 48 (Chart 8), compared with 40.9 percent and 24.3 percent among traditional (Chart 6) and <abbr class="spell">MO</abbr> (Chart 7) participants, respectively. This may reflect major differences in the characteristics of the beneficiaries who assign their tickets under the three payment systems (Livermore, Stapleton, and Roche 2009), as well as any differences in service delivery. It is also interesting that the percentage in <abbr class="spell">STW</abbr> status for the <abbr class="spell">OO</abbr> participants <i>increases</i> from month 32 (44.8 percent) to month 38 (69.0 percent) before declining again. This may be an anomaly, however, as there were just 29 individuals in this group.</p>
|
|
<p>Those in the more recent exit cohorts were somewhat more successful at remaining in <abbr class="spell">STW</abbr> status than those in the 2002 cohort. For example, 47.5 percent of the <abbr class="spell">MO</abbr> participants in the 2003 cohort were in <abbr class="spell">STW</abbr> status in the 24th month after the first <abbr class="spell">STW</abbr> event, compared with only 41.8 percent for the 2002 cohort. Similar but less pronounced patterns appear for the participants under the <abbr class="spell">OO</abbr> and traditional payment systems. This most likely reflects differences in duration from ticket assignment to first <abbr class="spell">STW</abbr> event, which varied across those cohorts because of how the cohorts are defined. By definition, those whose first <abbr class="spell">STW</abbr> event was in 2002 must have assigned their tickets quite recently, whereas some of those whose first <abbr class="spell">STW</abbr> event was in 2003 or later had assigned their tickets many months before their first <abbr class="spell">STW</abbr> event. The differences also might reflect some of the same factors behind the variation across assignment cohorts in the percentage of participants with at least 1 <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> month.</p>
|
|
<p>Regardless of payment system, the likelihood of being in <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> conditional on having an <abbr class="spell">STW</abbr> event in an earlier month was much higher for <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> beneficiaries than for <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only beneficiaries (not shown). For example, in the 48th month after the first <abbr class="spell">STW</abbr> event, the percentage in <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> for <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> beneficiaries under the traditional payment system is 45.7 percent, compared with 16.6 percent for the <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only group. Comparable values for participants under the <abbr class="spell">MO</abbr> payment system are 28.7 percent and 8.7 percent, respectively. The number of <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only participants under the <abbr class="spell">OO</abbr> payment system observed for 48 months after an <abbr class="spell">STW</abbr> event is too small (just six) to make a meaningful comparison.</p>
|
|
<p>In summary, only a minority of participants under all three payment systems had an <abbr class="spell">STW</abbr> event during the period of observation, but very substantial shares of those who did have such an event were in <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> for a long time. Across the three payment systems, <abbr class="spell">OO</abbr> participants were the most likely to both have an <abbr class="spell">STW</abbr> event and be in <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> for an extended period; <abbr class="spell">MO</abbr> participants were the least likely. Those participants who were <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> beneficiaries were more likely to both have an <abbr class="spell">STW</abbr> event and be in <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> for an extended period than those who were <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only beneficiaries. To the extent observed, beneficiaries in more recent assignment cohorts were less likely to have an <abbr class="spell">STW</abbr> event than those in earlier cohorts, but when they did have such an event, they spent more months in <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr>. Cross-cohort differences might well have changed after the end of the sample period because of the recession.</p>
|
|
<h2>Cumulative Effects of Suspensions and Terminations on <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> Months</h2>
|
|
<p>Annual statistics on beneficiaries do not capture the cumulative effects of past entry into <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> because they exclude information on those whose benefits were previously terminated for work. In this section, we explore the total number of beneficiaries in <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> in each year of the period under study, taking into account the cumulative effects of past entry. We base these statistics on the first subpopulation described earlier—those in current-pay status or in <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> for at least 1 month during the year.</p>
|
|
<p>For this analysis, we exclude beneficiaries whose benefits were suspended or terminated for the entire year for a reason other than work—mostly because of age or mortality, but also because of medical recovery. Each year's subpopulation includes those who entered <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> in an earlier year.<sup><a href="#mn11" id="mt11">11</a></sup> We stratify each group based on <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> participation. Participants include beneficiaries who assigned their tickets in the specified or previous calendar years, provided that those tickets were also assigned during the relevant <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> months.<sup><a href="#mn12" id="mt12">12</a></sup> All other beneficiaries are nonparticipants. We base the payment system for <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> participants on the first month of the most recent ticket assignment.</p>
|
|
<p>In 2002, more than 400,000 beneficiaries (including former beneficiaries) had at least 1 <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> month because of work; 59.5 percent were <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> beneficiaries and the remaining beneficiaries were in the <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only group (Table 3). From 2002 through 2006, there was some fluctuation in the total number of beneficiaries with at least 1 <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> month, but no apparent trend. The share of <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> months for <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> beneficiaries increased, reaching 67.9 percent of the total in 2006.</p>
|
|
<div class="table" id="table3">
|
|
<table>
|
|
<caption><span class="tableNumber">Table 3. </span>Number of beneficiaries with at least 1 <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> month and the percentage who were <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> participants, <span class="nobr">2002–2006</span></caption>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:8em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="5" style="width:6em"></colgroup>
|
|
<thead>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stubHeading" id="c1">Payment title</th>
|
|
<th id="c2">2002</th>
|
|
<th id="c3">2003</th>
|
|
<th id="c4">2004</th>
|
|
<th id="c5">2005</th>
|
|
<th id="c6">2006</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</thead>
|
|
<tbody>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<th colspan="5" class="panel" id="r1">Beneficiaries with at least 1 <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> month</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r2" headers="r1 c1"><abbr class="spell">DI</abbr></th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 c2">245,673</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 c3">259,065</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 c4">259,734</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 c5">274,816</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 c6">274,271</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r3" headers="r1 c1"><abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only</th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r3 c2">166,971</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r3 c3">173,132</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r3 c4">136,503</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r3 c5">135,216</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r3 c6">129,328</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r4" headers="r1 r3 c1">Total</th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r3 r4 c2">412,644</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r3 r4 c3">432,197</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r3 r4 c4">396,237</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r3 r4 c5">410,032</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r3 r4 c6">403,599</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<th colspan="5" class="panel" id="r5">Percentage of beneficiaries with at least 1 <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> month who had assigned tickets under any of the three payment systems</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r6" headers="r5 c1"><abbr class="spell">DI</abbr></th>
|
|
<td headers="r5 r6 c2">0.16</td>
|
|
<td headers="r5 r6 c3">0.68</td>
|
|
<td headers="r5 r6 c4">1.73</td>
|
|
<td headers="r5 r6 c5">2.89</td>
|
|
<td headers="r5 r6 c6">3.60</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r7" headers="r5 c1"><abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only</th>
|
|
<td headers="r5 r7 c2">0.05</td>
|
|
<td headers="r5 r7 c3">0.27</td>
|
|
<td headers="r5 r7 c4">0.87</td>
|
|
<td headers="r5 r7 c5">1.65</td>
|
|
<td headers="r5 r7 c6">2.28</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r8" headers="r5 r7 c1">Total</th>
|
|
<td headers="r5 r7 r8 c2">0.11</td>
|
|
<td headers="r5 r7 r8 c3">0.52</td>
|
|
<td headers="r5 r7 r8 c4">1.43</td>
|
|
<td headers="r5 r7 r8 c5">2.48</td>
|
|
<td headers="r5 r7 r8 c6">3.17</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tbody>
|
|
<tfoot>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="firstNote" colspan="6">SOURCE: Analysis of <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> beneficiary records in the 2007 <abbr class="spell">TRF</abbr>.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="lastNote" colspan="6">NOTES: Sample consists of existing <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> or <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> beneficiaries who had entered the programs by January of each calendar year, were in current-pay status or had benefits suspended or terminated because of work for at least 1 month during the calendar year, and were below the <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> in January. In each year, <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> participants include beneficiaries whose tickets were assigned as of their first <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> month. Stapleton and others (2010b) provide statistics for <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> participants with an assigned ticket during any month of the year indicated.
|
|
<div class="newNote">The figures in the bottom bank use the numbers in the top bank as the denominator and show the percentages of the total who were <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> participants. The corresponding numerator (the number of <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> participants with at least 1 <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> month) is not shown.</div>
|
|
</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tfoot>
|
|
</table>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<p><abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> participants accounted for only a small percentage of those with at least 1 <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> month, even in the most recent year (Table 3). That percentage is just 0.11 in the first year of <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr>, when the program was only available in 13 states. By 2006, the percentage had grown to 3.17 percent, still very small. We expect this percentage to continue to grow because an increasingly larger share of those in <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> will have had their first <abbr class="spell">STW</abbr> event after the rollout of the <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> program.</p>
|
|
<p>Many of those with <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> months were not in <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> in every month of the year. To adjust for this fact, we divide the total number of <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> months in a year by 12 to obtain a <span class="nobr">full-year</span> equivalent measure of time off the rolls for work ("<abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> years"). This figure can also be interpreted as the number of beneficiaries and former beneficiaries in <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> during the average month in the year. The number of <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> years also fluctuated from 2002 through 2006, from a low of nearly 265,000 years in 2002 to a high of just over 275,000 years in 2006 (Table 4). The share of <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> years represented by <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> beneficiaries rose from 67.8 percent of the total in 2002 to 77.5 percent in 2006.</p>
|
|
<div class="table" id="table4">
|
|
<table>
|
|
<caption><span class="tableNumber">Table 4. </span>Number of <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> years among all beneficiaries and the percentage who were <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> participants, <span class="nobr">2002–2006</span></caption>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:8em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="5" style="width:6em"></colgroup>
|
|
<thead>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stubHeading" id="c1">Payment title</th>
|
|
<th id="c2">2002</th>
|
|
<th id="c3">2003</th>
|
|
<th id="c4">2004</th>
|
|
<th id="c5">2005</th>
|
|
<th id="c6">2006</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</thead>
|
|
<tbody>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<th colspan="5" class="panel" id="r1"><abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> years</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r2" headers="r1 c1"><abbr class="spell">DI</abbr></th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 c2">179,701</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 c3">194,107</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 c4">198,083</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 c5">208,946</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 c6">213,630</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r3" headers="r1 c1"><abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only</th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r3 c2">85,251</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r3 c3">78,709</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r3 c4">61,944</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r3 c5">64,481</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r3 c6">62,013</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r4" headers="r1 r3 c1">Total</th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r3 r4 c2">264,952</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r3 r4 c3">272,816</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r3 r4 c4">260,027</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r3 r4 c5">273,427</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r3 r4 c6">275,643</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<th colspan="5" class="panel" id="r5">Percentage of beneficiaries with assigned tickets under any of the three payment systems</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r6" headers="r5 c1"><abbr class="spell">DI</abbr></th>
|
|
<td headers="r5 r6 c2">0.06</td>
|
|
<td headers="r5 r6 c3">0.38</td>
|
|
<td headers="r5 r6 c4">1.20</td>
|
|
<td headers="r5 r6 c5">2.27</td>
|
|
<td headers="r5 r6 c6">3.13</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r7" headers="r5 c1"><abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only</th>
|
|
<td headers="r5 r7 c2">0.02</td>
|
|
<td headers="r5 r7 c3">0.19</td>
|
|
<td headers="r5 r7 c4">0.72</td>
|
|
<td headers="r5 r7 c5">1.48</td>
|
|
<td headers="r5 r7 c6">2.40</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r8" headers="r5 r7 c1">Total</th>
|
|
<td headers="r5 r7 r8 c2">0.05</td>
|
|
<td headers="r5 r7 r8 c3">0.33</td>
|
|
<td headers="r5 r7 r8 c4">1.09</td>
|
|
<td headers="r5 r7 r8 c5">2.08</td>
|
|
<td headers="r5 r7 r8 c6">2.96</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tbody>
|
|
<tfoot>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="firstNote" colspan="6">SOURCE: Analysis of <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> beneficiary records in the 2007 <abbr class="spell">TRF</abbr>.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="lastNote" colspan="6">NOTES: Sample consists of existing <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> or <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> beneficiaries who had entered the programs by January of each calendar year, were in current-pay status or <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> for at least 1 month during the calendar year, and were below the <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> in January. In each year, months for assigned tickets only include the <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> months during the year when the tickets were assigned. Stapleton and others (2010b) report slightly larger statistics that include <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> months for the same participants in any months during the year when their tickets were not assigned.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tfoot>
|
|
</table>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<p>The percentage of <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> years that were accrued by <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> participants also increased during this time, from 0.05 percent in 2002 to 2.96 percent in 2006. Much of the observed growth of this percentage was the result of growth in the number of <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> participants. We cannot determine the extent to which this growth reflects an impact of <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> on months off the rolls for work versus an increase in ticket participation by those leaving the rolls anyway.</p>
|
|
<p>We also examine <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> months for <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> participants by payment system. The number of <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> months are counted for participants under each system in each calendar year from 2002 through 2006, taking into account whether a beneficiary's ticket was assigned during the first <abbr class="spell">STW</abbr> event.</p>
|
|
<p>Most participants who had <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> months had assigned their tickets under the traditional payment system, and most <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> years for participants are accounted for by the same group. This reflects the fact that a very large majority of tickets were assigned under the traditional payment system throughout this period. Participants under that system had proportionally fewer <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> months than those under the other two payment systems. In 2002, when 73.0 percent of <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> years were attributed to those participants, 81.8 percent of ticket assignments were under the traditional payment system. The percentage of <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> years attributed to this group increased to 80.7 percent in 2006, but the percentage of assignments under the traditional payment system also increased, to 86.5 percent.</p>
|
|
<p>It is important to recognize that participants who assigned their tickets to <abbr class="spell">SVRA</abbr>s did not represent all of the beneficiaries served by those agencies during this period, nor all of those served who had <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> months. This was especially true during 2002 and 2003, when beneficiaries in some states were not eligible for <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr>. Hence, a large share of the growth in <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> years for participants under the traditional payment system reflects growth in the number of beneficiaries served by an <abbr class="spell">SVRA</abbr> under <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr>, not growth in the number of beneficiaries actually served by the <abbr class="spell">SVRA</abbr>.</p>
|
|
<p>In 2002, only 103 <abbr class="spell">MO</abbr> and 29 <abbr class="spell">OO</abbr> participants had at least 1 <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> month (Table 5). By 2006, those numbers had increased to 1,432 and 663, respectively. This growth reflects the <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> program rollout, completed in 2004, as well as gradual growth in ticket assignments after they became available. In 2006, <abbr class="spell">MO</abbr> participants had a total of 926 <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> years and <abbr class="spell">OO</abbr> participants had 476.<sup><a href="#mn13" id="mt13">13</a></sup> Although <abbr class="spell">MO</abbr> participants spent nearly twice as many months in <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> as <abbr class="spell">OO</abbr> participants in 2006, the number of <abbr class="spell">MO</abbr> participants was nearly five times as large as the number of <abbr class="spell">OO</abbr> participants.</p>
|
|
<div class="table" id="table5">
|
|
<table>
|
|
<caption><span class="tableNumber">Table 5. </span><abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> participants with at least 1 <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> month and number of <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> years: All three payment systems, <span class="nobr">2002–2006</span></caption>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:16em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="5" style="width:6em"></colgroup>
|
|
<thead>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stubHeading" id="c1">Payment title and payment system</th>
|
|
<th id="c2">2002</th>
|
|
<th id="c3">2003</th>
|
|
<th id="c4">2004</th>
|
|
<th id="c5">2005</th>
|
|
<th id="c6">2006</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</thead>
|
|
<tbody>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<th colspan="5" class="panel" id="r1"><abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> participants with at least 1 <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> month</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r2" headers="r1 c1"><abbr class="spell">DI</abbr></th>
|
|
<td colspan="5"></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r3" headers="r1 r2 c1">Traditional</th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r3 c2"> 280 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r3 c3"> 1,336 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r3 c4"> 3,542 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r3 c5"> 6,415 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r3 c6"> 8,096 </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r4" headers="r1 r2 c1">Milestone-outcome</th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 c2"> 80 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 c3"> 295 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 c4"> 627 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 c5"> 1,020 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 c6"> 1,119 </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r5" headers="r1 r2 c1">Outcome-only</th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r5 c2"> 23 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r5 c3"> 139 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r5 c4"> 306 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r5 c5"> 489 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r5 c6"> 587 </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub2" id="r6" headers="r1 r2 r5 c1">Subtotal</th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r5 r6 c2"> 383 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r5 r6 c3"> 1,770 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r5 r6 c4"> 4,475 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r5 r6 c5"> 7,924 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r5 r6 c6"> 9,802 </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r7" headers="r1 c1"><abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only</th>
|
|
<td colspan="5"></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r8" headers="r1 r7 c1">Traditional</th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r8 c2"> 55 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r8 c3"> 358 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r8 c4"> 970 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r8 c5"> 1,891 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r8 c6"> 2,557 </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r9" headers="r1 r7 c1">Milestone-outcome</th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r9 c2"> 23 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r9 c3"> 83 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r9 c4"> 173 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r9 c5"> 272 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r9 c6"> 313 </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r10" headers="r1 r7 c1">Outcome-only</th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r10 c2"> 6 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r10 c3"> 22 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r10 c4"> 47 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r10 c5"> 62 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r10 c6"> 76 </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub2" id="r11" headers="r1 r7 r10 c1">Subtotal</th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r10 r11 c2"> 84 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r10 r11 c3"> 463 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r10 r11 c4"> 1,190 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r10 r11 c5"> 2,225 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r10 r11 c6"> 2,946 </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r12" headers="r1 c1">Total</th>
|
|
<td colspan="5"></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r13" headers="r1 r12 c1">Traditional</th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r12 r13 c2"> 335 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r12 r13 c3"> 1,694 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r12 r13 c4"> 4,512 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r12 r13 c5"> 8,306 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r12 r13 c6"> 10,653 </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r14" headers="r1 r12 c1">Milestone-outcome</th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r12 r14 c2"> 103 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r12 r14 c3"> 378 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r12 r14 c4"> 800 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r12 r14 c5"> 1,292 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r12 r14 c6"> 1,432 </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r15" headers="r1 r12 c1">Outcome-only</th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r12 r15 c2"> 29 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r12 r15 c3"> 161 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r12 r15 c4"> 353 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r12 r15 c5"> 551 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r12 r15 c6"> 663 </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub2" id="r16" headers="r1 r12 r15 c1">Total</th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r12 r15 r16 c2"> 467 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r12 r15 r16 c3"> 2,233 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r12 r15 r16 c4"> 5,665 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r12 r15 r16 c5"> 10,149 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r12 r15 r16 c6"> 12,748 </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td> </td>
|
|
<th colspan="5" class="panel" id="r17"><abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> years</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r18" headers="r17 c1"><abbr class="spell">DI</abbr></th>
|
|
<td colspan="5"></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r19" headers="r17 r18 c1">Traditional</th>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r18 r19 c2"> 78 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r18 r19 c3"> 555 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r18 r19 c4"> 1,858 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r18 r19 c5"> 3,806 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r18 r19 c6"> 5,453 </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r20" headers="r17 r18 c1">Milestone-outcome</th>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r18 r20 c2"> 22 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r18 r20 c3"> 128 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r18 r20 c4"> 348 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r18 r20 c5"> 608 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r18 r20 c6"> 763 </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r21" headers="r17 r18 c1">Outcome-only</th>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r18 r21 c2"> 5 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r18 r21 c3"> 61 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r18 r21 c4"> 175 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r18 r21 c5"> 318 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r18 r21 c6"> 433 </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub2" id="r22" headers="r17 r18 r21 c1">Subtotal</th>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r18 r21 r22 c2"> 105 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r18 r21 r22 c3"> 744 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r18 r21 r22 c4"> 2,381 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r18 r21 r22 c5"> 4,732 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r18 r21 r22 c6"> 6,649 </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r23" headers="r17 c1"><abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only</th>
|
|
<td colspan="5"></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r24" headers="r17 r23 c1">Traditional</th>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r23 r24 c2"> 11 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r23 r24 c3"> 117 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r23 r24 c4"> 355 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r23 r24 c5"> 807 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r23 r24 c6"> 1,278 </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r25" headers="r17 r23 c1">Milestone-outcome</th>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r23 r25 c2"> 5 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r23 r25 c3"> 27 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r23 r25 c4"> 66 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r23 r25 c5"> 111 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r23 r25 c6"> 163 </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r26" headers="r17 r23 c1">Outcome-only</th>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r23 r26 c2"> 2 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r23 r26 c3"> 8 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r23 r26 c4"> 23 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r23 r26 c5"> 33 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r23 r26 c6"> 43 </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub2" id="r27" headers="r17 r23 r26 c1">Subtotal</th>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r23 r26 r27 c2"> 18 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r23 r26 r27 c3"> 152 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r23 r26 r27 c4"> 444 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r23 r26 r27 c5"> 951 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r23 r26 r27 c6"> 1,484 </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r28" headers="r17 c1">Total</th>
|
|
<td colspan="5"></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r29" headers="r17 r28 c1">Traditional</th>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r28 r29 c2"> 89 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r28 r29 c3"> 672 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r28 r29 c4"> 2,213 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r28 r29 c5"> 4,613 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r28 r29 c6"> 6,731 </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r30" headers="r17 r28 c1">Milestone-outcome</th>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r28 r30 c2"> 27 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r28 r30 c3"> 155 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r28 r30 c4"> 414 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r28 r30 c5"> 719 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r28 r30 c6"> 926 </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r31" headers="r17 r28 c1">Outcome-only</th>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r28 r31 c2"> 7 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r28 r31 c3"> 69 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r28 r31 c4"> 198 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r28 r31 c5"> 351 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r28 r31 c6"> 476 </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub2" id="r32" headers="r17 r28 r31 c1">Total</th>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r28 r31 r32 c2"> 123 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r28 r31 r32 c3"> 896 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r28 r31 r32 c4"> 2,825 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r28 r31 r32 c5"> 5,683 </td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r28 r31 r32 c6"> 8,133 </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tbody>
|
|
<tfoot>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="firstNote" colspan="6">SOURCE: Analysis of <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> beneficiary records in the 2007 <abbr class="spell">TRF</abbr>.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="lastNote" colspan="6">NOTES: Counts are based on the <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> indicator. The analysis includes participants who most recently assigned their tickets from February 2002 through December 2006. Statistics only include <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> months in which their tickets were assigned. Stapleton and others (2010b) provide slightly larger statistics that include any <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> months during the year without regard for whether or not a ticket was assigned. Payment title and payment system are determined in January of the calendar year. Payment system for <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> participants is determined in the month of the most recent ticket assignment. <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> years are calculated by dividing the number of months off the rolls, as indicated by <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> months in each year, by 12.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tfoot>
|
|
</table>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<p><abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> participants under all three payment systems had more <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> years than <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only participants, both because there were more <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> participants and because they had more <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> months per beneficiary.</p>
|
|
<h2>Outcome Payments to <abbr class="spell">MO</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">OO</abbr> Participants in <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr></h2>
|
|
<p>The <abbr class="spell">MO</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">OO</abbr> payment systems are of special interest because they were first introduced under <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr>, and their outcome payments are tied directly to the suspension or termination of benefits for work. Specifically, <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> makes outcome payments in months when a participant receives no <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> or <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only payment because of earnings, provided that the participant's <abbr class="spell">EN</abbr> files a claim for payments with acceptable documentation.</p>
|
|
<p>In this section we report findings from an analysis of the extent to which milestone and outcome payments were made during months that were identified as <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> months for <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> participants. We focus on the period from 2002 through 2005, omitting 2006 to ensure that sufficient time had passed for all <abbr class="spell">EN</abbr> claims for payment to have been made and processed at the time the payment dates were extracted for this analysis.</p>
|
|
<p>Table 6 shows that of the 18,809 <abbr class="spell">MO</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">OO</abbr> participants who assigned their tickets from February 2002 through December 2005, at least one payment was generated by the end of 2006 by 2,502 participants (13.3 percent).<sup><a href="#mn14" id="mt14">14</a></sup> <abbr class="spell">MO</abbr> participants were slightly more likely to generate at least one payment than <abbr class="spell">OO</abbr> participants (13.7 percent compared with 11.6 percent, respectively). Conditional on generating at least one payment, however, <abbr class="spell">OO</abbr> participants generated more payments than <abbr class="spell">MO</abbr> participants (14.9 payments compared with 7.2 payments, respectively). Under both payment systems, <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> participants were more likely than their <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only counterparts to generate a payment. This might reflect differences in the characteristics of those two types of participants, including differences in their prior work histories, but also might reflect programmatic differences. Outcome payments for <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only participants are lower than for <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> participants, and <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only participants typically must earn more than their <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> counterparts for their benefits to be suspended because of differences in the work-incentive features of the two programs.<sup><a href="#mn15" id="mt15">15</a></sup> These factors might have a substantial effect on whether a participant generates a payment, but would most likely have much less effect on how many payments are generated by those who generate payments. In fact, among those who generate a payment, <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only participants generated slightly more payments than <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> participants under either system.</p>
|
|
<div class="table" id="table6">
|
|
<table>
|
|
<caption><span class="tableNumber">Table 6. </span>Ticket payments generated from February 2002 through December 2006 among <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> participants assigning under the two new payment systems (<abbr class="spell">MO</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">OO</abbr>) by December 2005</caption>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:16em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:6em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="2" style="width:6em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="3" style="width:6em"></colgroup>
|
|
<thead>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th rowspan="2" class="stubHeading" scope="colgroup">Payment system and payment title</th>
|
|
<th rowspan="2" scope="colgroup">Number of tickets assigned</th>
|
|
<th colspan="2" class="spanner" scope="colgroup">Tickets with payments</th>
|
|
<th colspan="3" class="spanner" scope="colgroup">Mean number of payments, conditional on at least one payment</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th scope="col">Number</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Percent</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Any</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Outcome</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Milestone</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</thead>
|
|
<tbody>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub2" scope="row">Total</th>
|
|
<td>18,809</td>
|
|
<td>2,502</td>
|
|
<td>13.3</td>
|
|
<td>8.5</td>
|
|
<td>6.9</td>
|
|
<td>1.7</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="rowgroup">Milestone-outcome</th>
|
|
<td>15,029</td>
|
|
<td>2,063</td>
|
|
<td>13.7</td>
|
|
<td>7.2</td>
|
|
<td>5.2</td>
|
|
<td>2.0</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row"><abbr class="spell">DI</abbr></th>
|
|
<td>10,484</td>
|
|
<td>1,587</td>
|
|
<td>15.1</td>
|
|
<td>7.1</td>
|
|
<td>4.8</td>
|
|
<td>2.2</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row"><abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only</th>
|
|
<td>4,545</td>
|
|
<td>476</td>
|
|
<td>10.5</td>
|
|
<td>7.6</td>
|
|
<td>6.4</td>
|
|
<td>1.2</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="rowgroup">Outcome-only</th>
|
|
<td>3,780</td>
|
|
<td>439</td>
|
|
<td>11.6</td>
|
|
<td>14.9</td>
|
|
<td>14.9</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row"><abbr class="spell">DI</abbr></th>
|
|
<td>3,217</td>
|
|
<td>393</td>
|
|
<td>12.2</td>
|
|
<td>14.8</td>
|
|
<td>14.8</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row"><abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only</th>
|
|
<td>563</td>
|
|
<td>46</td>
|
|
<td>8.2</td>
|
|
<td>15.6</td>
|
|
<td>15.6</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tbody>
|
|
<tfoot>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="firstNote" colspan="7">SOURCE: Analysis of <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> beneficiary records in the 2007 <abbr class="spell">TRF</abbr>.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="lastNote" colspan="7">NOTES: Sample includes <abbr class="spell">MO</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">OO</abbr> participants who assigned their most recent tickets from February 2002 through December 2005. Months when a beneficiary's ticket was not assigned are excluded. Payment system and payment title are based on ticket-assignment month. Payments generated for months through December 2006 and processed through December 2007 are included.
|
|
<div class="newNote">. . . = not applicable.</div>
|
|
</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tfoot>
|
|
</table>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<p>The 18,809 <abbr class="spell">MO</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">OO</abbr> participants who assigned their tickets from February 2002 through December 2005 spent a very small share of subsequent months in <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> through the end of 2005. Of the 346,423 months in which their tickets were assigned during this period, only 6.8 percent (23,405 months) were <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> months (Table 7). These participants were in current-pay status during a large majority of those months (90.1 percent) and off the rolls for some other reason (such as age or mortality) in the remaining months (2.9 percent).</p>
|
|
<div class="table" id="table7">
|
|
<table>
|
|
<caption><span class="tableNumber">Table 7. </span>Months with assigned tickets among all <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> participants, by suspension or termination status, <span class="nobr">2002–2005</span></caption>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:18em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="2" style="width:5em"></colgroup>
|
|
<thead>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stubHeading" scope="col">Status</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Months</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Percent</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</thead>
|
|
<tbody>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="rowgroup">Months in which tickets were assigned</th>
|
|
<td>346,423</td>
|
|
<td>100.0</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="rowgroup">Current-pay</th>
|
|
<td>312,231</td>
|
|
<td>90.1</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="rowgroup">Suspension or termination</th>
|
|
<td>34,192</td>
|
|
<td>9.9</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row"><abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr></th>
|
|
<td>23,405</td>
|
|
<td>6.8</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Other suspension or termination</th>
|
|
<td>9,787</td>
|
|
<td>2.9</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tbody>
|
|
<tfoot>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="firstNote" colspan="3">SOURCE: Analysis of <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> beneficiary records in the 2007 <abbr class="spell">TRF</abbr>.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="lastNote" colspan="3">NOTES: Sample includes <abbr class="spell">MO</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">OO</abbr> participants who assigned their most recent tickets from February 2002 through December 2005. Months when a beneficiary's ticket was unassigned are excluded. The "Other suspension or termination" category indicates that the beneficiary was off the rolls for a reason other than work (such as medical recovery).</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tfoot>
|
|
</table>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<p>Because <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> makes outcome payments only in months when an <abbr class="spell">MO</abbr> or <abbr class="spell">OO</abbr> participant is engaged in <abbr class="spell">SGA</abbr> and the participant's benefits are suspended or terminated for work, we expected that <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> months and outcome payments would paint a relatively consistent picture of the months in which those participants received no benefits because of work. Our expectations were only partly confirmed, however. As expected, a very high percentage of outcome payments (84.9 percent) were made for months that we counted as <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> months (Table 8). Most other outcome payments were made in months during which we classified the beneficiary as suspended or terminated for some other reason (10.7 percent). Further analysis reveals that most of those months were for <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only beneficiaries who had earnings, but whose benefits were formally suspended or terminated for a reason other than work (for example, because of other income, such as the earnings of a spouse). Future refinements of the <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> indicator will quite likely lead to reclassification of some of these cases as <abbr class="spell">STW</abbr>. This might also mean that any future revisions to the <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> numbers for the <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only beneficiaries we reported earlier in this article will increase. Very few outcome payments were made to beneficiaries who were identified as being in current-pay status (4.4 percent).</p>
|
|
<div class="table" id="table8">
|
|
<table>
|
|
<caption><span class="tableNumber">Table 8. </span>Comparison of <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> months and ticket payments among <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> participants under the <abbr class="spell">MO</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">OO</abbr> payment systems, February 2002–December 2005</caption>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:15em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="3" style="width:6em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="3" style="width:6em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="3" style="width:6em"></colgroup>
|
|
<thead>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th rowspan="2" class="stubHeading" scope="colgroup">Status</th>
|
|
<th colspan="3" class="spanner" scope="colgroup">Months with an outcome payment</th>
|
|
<th colspan="3" class="spanner" scope="colgroup">Months with a milestone payment</th>
|
|
<th colspan="3" class="spanner" scope="colgroup">Months with any payment</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th scope="col">Months</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Percent of all assigned months in status</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Percent of months with outcome payment</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Months</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Percent of all assigned months in status</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Percent of months with milestone payment</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Months</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Percent of all assigned months in status</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Percent of months with any payment</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</thead>
|
|
<tbody>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Total</th>
|
|
<td> 10,673 </td>
|
|
<td> 3.1 </td>
|
|
<td> 100.0 </td>
|
|
<td> 3,547 </td>
|
|
<td> 1.0 </td>
|
|
<td> 100.0 </td>
|
|
<td> 14,220 </td>
|
|
<td> 4.1 </td>
|
|
<td> 100.0 </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">Current-pay </th>
|
|
<td> 466 </td>
|
|
<td> 0.1 </td>
|
|
<td> 4.4 </td>
|
|
<td> 3,175 </td>
|
|
<td> 9.3 </td>
|
|
<td> 89.5 </td>
|
|
<td> 3,641 </td>
|
|
<td> 1.2 </td>
|
|
<td> 25.6 </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> months</th>
|
|
<td> 9,060 </td>
|
|
<td> 38.7 </td>
|
|
<td> 84.9 </td>
|
|
<td> 271 </td>
|
|
<td> 1.1 </td>
|
|
<td> 7.6 </td>
|
|
<td> 9,331 </td>
|
|
<td> 39.9 </td>
|
|
<td> 65.6 </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">Other suspension or termination</th>
|
|
<td> 1,147 </td>
|
|
<td> 11.7 </td>
|
|
<td> 10.7 </td>
|
|
<td> 101 </td>
|
|
<td> 1.0 </td>
|
|
<td> 2.8 </td>
|
|
<td> 1,248 </td>
|
|
<td> 12.8 </td>
|
|
<td> 8.8 </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tbody>
|
|
<tfoot>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="firstNote" colspan="10">SOURCE: Analysis of <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> beneficiary records in the 2007 <abbr class="spell">TRF</abbr>.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="lastNote" colspan="10">NOTES: Sample includes <abbr class="spell">MO</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">OO</abbr> participants who assigned their most recent tickets from February 2002 through December 2005. Payments processed by December 2007 corresponding to months from February 2002 through December 2005 are included. Assigned months are those months in which the beneficiary's ticket was assigned to a provider. The "Other suspension or termination" category indicates that the beneficiary was off the rolls for a reason other than work (such as medical recovery). </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tfoot>
|
|
</table>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<p>Contrary to expectations, <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> made outcome payments in only a minority of the months that we classified as <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr>—just 38.7 percent (Table 8). One explanation is that <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> made milestone payments instead, but when we included milestone payments, the percentage of <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> months with payments increases only to 39.9 percent, as shown in the table. In other words, <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> made no payments in 6 out of 10 months that <abbr class="spell">MO</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">OO</abbr> participants were in <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> according to our indicator.</p>
|
|
<p>This surprising result led us to investigate such cases further. Based on an initial analysis, <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> assessed a sample of <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> months for which it had not paid the provider.<sup><a href="#mn16" id="mt16">16</a></sup> The agency found that the <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> indicator sometimes misclassified beneficiaries as being in <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> when their benefits were suspended or terminated for some other reason, including incarceration, spousal earnings, or receipt of unemployment compensation. We were able to refine the <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> indicator to take into account incarceration and spousal earnings. Those refinements are reflected in the results we present here, but they did not appreciably change the results.</p>
|
|
<p>After those revisions were implemented, we reviewed the concordance between the <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> indicator and payments again (Table 9). In 96 percent of the cases, the <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> indicator was found to be concordant with the payments data; discrepancies were identified in 4 percent of the months. <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> then selected and reviewed a random sample of 100 months from all of the 13,773 months in which the <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> indicator and outcome payment information were discrepant; that is, <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> months with no payment to the <abbr class="spell">EN</abbr> (79.2 percent), or outcome payment months that were not classified as <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> months (20.8 percent). The <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> reviewer had access to information beyond that contained in the 2007 <abbr class="spell">TRF</abbr>, the data source for our analysis.<sup><a href="#mn17" id="mt17">17</a></sup></p>
|
|
<div class="table" id="table9">
|
|
<table>
|
|
<caption><span class="tableNumber">Table 9. </span>Comparison of <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> variable and ticket payments to findings from <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr>'s review of discrepant months among <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> participants under the <abbr class="spell">MO</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">OO</abbr> payment systems, February 2002–December 2005</caption>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:30em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="6" style="width:6em"></colgroup>
|
|
<thead>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stubHeading" scope="col">Category of months</th>
|
|
<th scope="col"><abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> variable</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Ticket payment</th>
|
|
<th scope="col"><abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> review</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Number of months</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Percent of months</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Number of months reviewed</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</thead>
|
|
<tbody>
|
|
<tr class="shaded">
|
|
<th class="stub2" scope="row">Total months</th>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>347,472</td>
|
|
<td> 100.0 </td>
|
|
<td>100</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr class="shaded">
|
|
<th class="stub2" scope="row">Total concordant months (not sampled for review)</th>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>333,699</td>
|
|
<td> 96.0 </td>
|
|
<td>0</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr class="shaded">
|
|
<th class="stub2" scope="row"> Total discrepant months (sampled for review)</th>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>13,773</td>
|
|
<td> 4.0 </td>
|
|
<td>100</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="rowgroup"><abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> = Yes</th>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>19,399</td>
|
|
<td> 5.6 </td>
|
|
<td>79</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Outcome payment (concordant; agrees with <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> = Yes)</th>
|
|
<td>Yes</td>
|
|
<td>Outcome</td>
|
|
<td>No</td>
|
|
<td>8,484</td>
|
|
<td> 2.4 </td>
|
|
<td>0</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">No outcome payment (discrepant; disagrees with <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> = Yes)</th>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>10,915</td>
|
|
<td> 3.1 </td>
|
|
<td>79</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Evidence matches <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> (evidence of <abbr class="spell">SGA</abbr>)</th>
|
|
<td>Yes</td>
|
|
<td>Not paid</td>
|
|
<td>Yes</td>
|
|
<td>9,257</td>
|
|
<td> 2.7 </td>
|
|
<td>67</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Evidence inconclusive</th>
|
|
<td>Yes</td>
|
|
<td>Not paid</td>
|
|
<td>Yes</td>
|
|
<td>414</td>
|
|
<td> 0.1 </td>
|
|
<td>3</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row"><abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> incorrect (no evidence of <abbr class="spell">SGA</abbr>)</th>
|
|
<td>Yes</td>
|
|
<td>Not paid</td>
|
|
<td>No</td>
|
|
<td>1,243</td>
|
|
<td> 0.4 </td>
|
|
<td>9</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="rowgroup"><abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> = No</th>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>328,073</td>
|
|
<td> 94.4 </td>
|
|
<td>21</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">No payment (concordant; agrees with <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> = No)</th>
|
|
<td>No</td>
|
|
<td>Not paid</td>
|
|
<td>No</td>
|
|
<td>321,691</td>
|
|
<td> 92.6 </td>
|
|
<td>0</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Milestone payment (concordant; agrees with <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> = No)</th>
|
|
<td>No</td>
|
|
<td>Milestone</td>
|
|
<td>No</td>
|
|
<td>3,524</td>
|
|
<td> 1.0 </td>
|
|
<td>0</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Outcome payment (discrepant; disagrees with <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> = No)</th>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>2,858</td>
|
|
<td> 0.8 </td>
|
|
<td>21</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Evidence matches <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> (no evidence of <abbr class="spell">SGA</abbr>)</th>
|
|
<td>No</td>
|
|
<td>Outcome</td>
|
|
<td>No</td>
|
|
<td>817</td>
|
|
<td> 0.2 </td>
|
|
<td>6</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row"><abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> incorrect (evidence of <abbr class="spell">SGA</abbr>)</th>
|
|
<td>No</td>
|
|
<td>Outcome</td>
|
|
<td>Yes</td>
|
|
<td>2,041</td>
|
|
<td> 0.6 </td>
|
|
<td>15</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tbody>
|
|
<tfoot>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="firstNote" colspan="7">SOURCE: Analysis of <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> beneficiary records in the 2007 <abbr class="spell">TRF</abbr>. The <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> review included 100 randomly selected cases from all cases in which the <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> variable and ticket payment were discrepant.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="lastNote" colspan="7">NOTE: . . . = not applicable. </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tfoot>
|
|
</table>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<p>The review confirmed that the <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> indicator was accurate in 73 of the 100 discrepant months reviewed (last column of Table 9). This includes 67 months in which the reviewer found evidence that benefits were suspended or terminated and the beneficiary was engaged in <abbr class="spell">SGA</abbr>, but the <abbr class="spell">EN</abbr> did not file a payment claim. In the other 6 months in which the <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> indicator was confirmed to be correct, an outcome payment was made, but the indicator correctly showed that benefits were not suspended or terminated for work. Evidence available to the reviewer failed to contradict the <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> indicator in an additional 3 months, leaving 24 months in which the <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> indicator was demonstrably incorrect.</p>
|
|
<p>When the <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> indicator was incorrect, it was less likely to falsely indicate that benefits were suspended or terminated for work when they were not (9 of the months reviewed) than to falsely indicate that benefits were in current-pay status or suspended or terminated for some other reason (15 of the months reviewed). That is, false negatives were more common than false positives.<sup><a href="#mn18" id="mt18">18</a></sup></p>
|
|
<p>The review of the sampled cases demonstrates that the <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> variable is an essentially accurate indicator of benefit suspension or termination for work, although imperfect. If the <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> indicator is assumed to be correct in all months for which being in <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> is not discrepant with outcome payment information and if the findings from the review provide accurate estimates of what would have been found if all discrepant cases had been reviewed, then the <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> indicator correctly identified the following: (1) that benefits were suspended or terminated for work in 89.7 percent of all <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> participant months in which benefits were actually suspended or terminated for work, and (2) that benefits were not suspended or terminated for work in 99.6 percent of all <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> participant months in which benefits were actually not suspended or terminated for work.<sup><a href="#mn19" id="mt19">19</a></sup> For the months reviewed, the number of months found to be <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> months (82) is actually larger than the <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> months reviewed (79), but this difference is not statistically significant.<sup><a href="#mn20" id="mt20">20</a></sup></p>
|
|
<p>The findings of the review also suggest that beneficiaries actually were engaged in <abbr class="spell">SGA</abbr> in a large majority of the <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> months represented in the earlier <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> statistics. It is important to note, however, that the sample reviewed is not a random sample of all months identified as <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> months, but rather a random sample of those <abbr class="spell">MO</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">OO</abbr> participant months in which the <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> variable and the outcome payment data were discrepant. It might be that, relative to <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> participants under the <abbr class="spell">MO</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">OO</abbr> payment systems, participants under the traditional payment system and nonparticipants were engaged in <abbr class="spell">SGA</abbr> during a smaller share of months that we identified as <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> months.</p>
|
|
<p>Finally, the findings from the review imply that providers would have been eligible for payments in a very large share of the 60.1 percent of <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> months for which they were not paid if they had filed a properly documented claim. The most likely reason the provider did not file a claim is inability to obtain the necessary documentation. <abbr class="spell">EN</abbr>s must keep in touch with their clients for several years, and clients must cooperate in the <abbr class="spell">EN</abbr>'s effort to collect documentation. Outcome payments are in line with the <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> objective of having the <abbr class="spell">EN</abbr> take a <span class="nobr">long-term</span> interest in the client's success. Another explanation applies to a small share of these cases where the provider had withdrawn from its contract with <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr>.</p>
|
|
<h2>Conclusions</h2>
|
|
<p>Based on the <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> indicator, less than 1 percent of all beneficiaries, or about 70,000 each year, experienced their first month of benefit suspension or termination for work in each year from 2002 through 2006. Although the percentage entering <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> in any year was small, the cumulative effect was much more substantial because many beneficiaries remain in <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> for a sustained period. Just over 400,000 beneficiaries or former beneficiaries had at least 1 <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> month in 2006. This number is equal to 3.9 percent of all working-age beneficiaries who were on the <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> or <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only rolls in December 2006.<sup><a href="#mn21" id="mt21">21</a></sup> Many of those beneficiaries were not on the rolls at any point in 2006. The benefits of some had been terminated for work in earlier years, and the <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> indicator counts those beneficiaries as being in <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> because they had not re-entered the rolls, reached the <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr>, or died. Because many of these beneficiaries were not in <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> in all months of the year, the total number of <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> months is equivalent to a smaller number of years, approximately 275,000.</p>
|
|
<p>The number of <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> months is not growing rapidly. The annual number grew by less than 4 percent from 2002 through 2006. Over the same period, the number of beneficiaries increased by nearly 14 percent.<sup><a href="#mn22" id="mt22">22</a></sup> The statistics reflect <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> months for those with their first <abbr class="spell">STW</abbr> event in 1996 or later. We cannot attribute the relatively low <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> growth to a specific cause. For <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> beneficiaries, there is substantial evidence that the <span class="nobr">2000–2001</span> recession and the 2001 increase in the trial work period (<abbr class="spell">TWP</abbr>) "service month" amount (the minimum earnings that constitute a <abbr class="spell">TWP</abbr> month) contributed to a reduction in the number of <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> months for cohorts that received their awards from 2000 through 2003, relative to earlier cohorts (Stapleton and others 2010a). Analysis of the impacts of the 1999 increase in the nonblind <abbr class="spell">SGA</abbr> amount from $500 to $700 indicates that it, too, reduced the number of <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> months for <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> beneficiaries (Schimmel, Stapleton, and Song, forthcoming). Another reason for the relatively slow growth in <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> months is that the aging of the large baby boom generation at least partially drives the recent growth in the number of beneficiaries; they are now in their fifties and early sixties—the period in which workers are most likely to exit the labor force and enter <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr>, but least likely to accumulate <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> months after <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> entry (Stapleton and others 2010a). A final, more subtle reason for relatively slow growth in <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> months is that rapid growth in the number of <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> beneficiaries is not expected to translate into a similar pattern of rapid growth in <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> months immediately. It takes time for new beneficiaries to return to work, complete the <abbr class="spell">TWP</abbr> and grace period (in the case of <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr>), and, finally, have their benefits suspended or terminated for work.</p>
|
|
<p>It is likely that <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> months increased in 2007 because of economic growth and continued growth in the beneficiary rolls, but declined in 2008 because of the severe recession. Even with its new regulations in place, <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> is clearly fighting an uphill battle to accelerate growth in <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> months.</p>
|
|
<p><abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> participants account for only a small percentage of <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> months—just 3 percent in 2006. As the number of <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> participants grew from 2002 through 2006, that percentage also grew. We do not know the extent to which growth in that percentage represents an impact of <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> on <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> months versus increased use of <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> by those who would have <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> months in the absence of <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr>. Not surprisingly, <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> participants were more likely than nonparticipants to experience <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> months; ticket assignment presumably reflects beneficiary interest in increasing their earnings and, for some, becoming self-sufficient.</p>
|
|
<p>Compared with nonparticipants, participants who had an <abbr class="spell">STW</abbr> event were in <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> for a longer period, on average, but the differences are modest. It is possible that the longer duration in <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> reflects the usefulness of services received under <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr>, but it might also be that those beneficiaries most capable and determined to leave the rolls for a lengthy period were also the most likely to assign their tickets. Perhaps both are true, but we are not able to distinguish their relative importance.</p>
|
|
<p>In 2006, <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> participants under the <abbr class="spell">MO</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">OO</abbr> payment systems were in <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> for the equivalent of 1,403 years, counting only months when their tickets were assigned. Participants under the traditional payment system (nearly 90 percent of all participants in 2006) were in <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> for the equivalent of 7,475 years (almost 81 percent of the <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> months for all participants). The number of <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> participants in <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> increased substantially in every year from 2002 through 2006, reflecting the gradual rollout of the <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> program from 2002 through 2004 and growth in beneficiary use of <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> once it was available.</p>
|
|
<p>We find that a minority of participants under each of the three payment systems had <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> months—only about 20 percent by the 48th month after assignment. The percentages for <abbr class="spell">OO</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">MO</abbr> participants were substantially higher than the previously reported percentages for those generating payments to providers by the 48th month after assignment (Stapleton and others 2008), reflecting the fact that providers did not receive payments in many months when their clients were in <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr>. We also find that <abbr class="spell">OO</abbr> participants were substantially more likely than <abbr class="spell">MO</abbr> and traditional participants to have at least 1 <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> month: 25 percent by the 48th month after assignment, compared with about 17 percent for participants under either the <abbr class="spell">MO</abbr> or traditional payment systems.</p>
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|
<p>In addition, we find that <abbr class="spell">OO</abbr> participants with at least 1 <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> month typically remained in <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> longer than participants under the other two payment systems. For instance, of the <abbr class="spell">OO</abbr> participants with a first <abbr class="spell">STW</abbr> event in 2002, nearly half (48.3 percent) were in <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> 48 months later, compared with 40.9 percent for participants under the traditional payment system and 24.3 percent for those under the <abbr class="spell">MO</abbr> system.</p>
|
|
<p><abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> months for <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> participants may reflect the impact of the <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> program on <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> months, but we do not know how many of those months would have been <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> months in the absence of <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr>. Presumably some participants would have obtained services from <abbr class="spell">SVRA</abbr>s under the traditional payment system, or entered <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> without service financing from <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr>. Our analysis shows that <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> participants constitute only a small fraction of those who leave the rolls for work in any given year. Hence, there are many more beneficiaries who could have elected to participate in <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> even though they would have left the rolls if they had not participated.</p>
|
|
<p>It is likely that the participant <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> months increased again in 2007, but the severe recession, which started at the end of 2007, might well have reversed the trend. The July 2008 changes in the Ticket regulations eventually might have a positive effect on <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> months, but that will take time to materialize, as the negative effect of the recession may linger for several years. We suspect that the recession is overwhelming any positive impact that <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> has on <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> months.</p>
|
|
<p>We find that <abbr class="spell">EN</abbr>s received payments in only about 40 percent of the months during which their <abbr class="spell">MO</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">OO</abbr> clients were in <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr>. Investigation of a random sample of such cases led us to conclude that payment was not made in a large majority of these cases only because the provider did not file a claim.</p>
|
|
<p><abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> was designing and implementing changes to the payment process during the <span class="nobr">2002–2006</span> period. The main objectives of those changes were to reduce the burden on providers of filing payment claims and to improve the timeliness of payments (Stapleton and others 2008, chapter <abbr title="ten">X</abbr>). To file a payment claim, the <abbr class="spell">EN</abbr> must keep in touch with the client for several years, and the client must cooperate in the <abbr class="spell">EN</abbr>'s effort to collect documentation. This payment system is in line with the <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> objective of having the <abbr class="spell">EN</abbr> take a <span class="nobr">long-term</span> interest in the client's success. The attractiveness of <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> to providers might hinge on the extent to which those efforts have increased the percentage of months in which providers request and receive payments when their <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> clients' benefits are suspended or terminated for work. Therefore, when considering further revisions to the payment process and the information required of providers to submit a claim, <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> should carefully consider the balance between the objective of encouraging the <abbr class="spell">EN</abbr> to maintain a relationship with the client and the burden of properly adhering to the payment process. For the program to be economically viable, the payment system might need to change in the direction of reducing the burden on <abbr class="spell">EN</abbr>s at a cost of reducing the incentive for the <abbr class="spell">EN</abbr> to maintain a relationship with the client.</p>
|
|
<div id="notes">
|
|
<h2>Notes</h2>
|
|
<p> <a href="#mt1" id="mn1">1</a> Under the regulations in place during the period under study, outcome payments could be made for up to 60 months. Under the <abbr class="spell">MO</abbr> system, <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> makes some payments based on achieving earnings milestones, but not on the receipt of benefits; in addition, outcome payments are made.</p>
|
|
<p> <a href="#mt2" id="mn2">2</a> After 2008, it was no longer necessary for the <abbr class="spell">SVRA</abbr> to obtain a beneficiary's ticket for purposes of using the traditional payment system. Further, under the Partnership Plus option, the beneficiary can obtain services from an <abbr class="spell">SVRA</abbr> under the traditional payment system and then obtain follow-up services from an <abbr class="spell">EN</abbr> under a modified version of either the <abbr class="spell">MO</abbr> or <abbr class="spell">OO</abbr> system.</p>
|
|
<p> <a href="#mt3" id="mn3">3</a> In previous reports this indicator has been called the "left-due-to-work" indicator, or <abbr class="spell">LDW</abbr>. We have changed the name to <abbr class="spell">STW</abbr> to reflect the fact that the variable identifies suspensions for work, not just terminations.</p>
|
|
<p> <a href="#mt4" id="mn4">4</a> The <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> group includes both <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr>-only and concurrent (that is, <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only) beneficiaries because the Ticket payment schedule for those two groups is the same.</p>
|
|
<p> <a href="#mt5" id="mn5">5</a> The use of the most recent ticket assignment for dating the assignment avoids double counting of participants, but it also means that the number of assignments reported early in the period are somewhat lower than the actual number. Comparing our findings with those in Exhibit <abbr title="thirteen">XIII</abbr>.1 in Stapleton and others (2008), we find that our method captures 91 percent of all assignments in 2002; 96 percent of assignments in 2003; and 97 percent of assignments in 2004. If a participant's ticket was unassigned during this period and not reassigned, the participant is included in our analysis, but only the most recent assignment is considered and months in which the ticket is unassigned are not included.</p>
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<p> <a href="#mt6" id="mn6">6</a> These definitions exclude beneficiaries from both the numerator and the denominator if they receive their award partially through the previous calendar year or in the specified calendar year. Such beneficiaries only rarely experience an <abbr class="spell">STW</abbr> month because of the trial work period (<abbr class="spell">TWP</abbr>) and grace period.</p>
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<p> <a href="#mt7" id="mn7">7</a> For the sake of simplicity, we display only those results for beneficiaries whose first <abbr class="spell">STW</abbr> event was in 2002. There was virtually no difference between participants and nonparticipants based on when the first <abbr class="spell">STW</abbr> event occurred, and 2002 offers the longest observed time trend.</p>
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<p> <a href="#mt8" id="mn8">8</a> Suspension for work is not time limited. Termination for work only occurs if earnings exceed the section <span class="nobr">1619(b)</span> income limit for the beneficiary's state (<abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> 2011, 41).</p>
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<p> <a href="#mt9" id="mn9">9</a> Longitudinal statistics presented in <a href="#chart3">Charts 3</a>, <a href="#chart4">4</a>, and <a href="#chart5">5</a> follow participants for a set number of months, depending on the year they assigned their tickets. Beneficiaries who assigned their tickets in 2002 are observed for 48 months following assignment, 2003 assigners are followed for 36 months, 2004 assigners are followed for 24 months, and 2005 assigners are followed for 12 months. The length of observation is the same within a given cohort, regardless of whether the ticket was assigned in January or December of that year. This method avoids right censoring and ensures the same sample size for a given cohort throughout the observation period.</p>
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<p><a href="#mt10" id="mn10">10</a> Beneficiaries who first assigned their tickets in 2002 could have been first off the rolls in any year from 2002 to 2005, while beneficiaries who assigned their tickets in 2005 could have been first off the rolls only in 2005.</p>
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<p><a href="#mt11" id="mn11">11</a> Statistics for the number of beneficiaries off the rolls and the number of months they were off would be only very slightly higher if we had included those entering the rolls during the year because suspensions for work rarely occur during the first year on the rolls.</p>
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<p><a href="#mt12" id="mn12">12</a> Stapleton and others (2010b) reported a second set of statistics for <abbr class="spell">TTW</abbr> participants that are slightly larger because <abbr class="spell">STW</abbr> months for participants that occurred in months when the ticket was not assigned are counted as participant months.</p>
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<p><a href="#mt13" id="mn13">13</a> As reported by Stapleton and others (2010b), <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> years in 2006 are somewhat larger if <abbr class="spell">STW</abbr> months in which the participant's tickets are not assigned are included in the count: 1,214 for <abbr class="spell">MO</abbr> and 569 for <abbr class="spell">OO</abbr>. The difference partly reflects the fact that a number of <abbr class="spell">EN</abbr>s withdrew from the program.</p>
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<p><a href="#mt14" id="mn14">14</a> Because Ticket payments often are processed with a lag, we use data on payments processed by the end of 2007 to allow sufficient time for 2006 payments to have been processed.</p>
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<p><a href="#mt15" id="mn15">15</a> <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only beneficiaries typically need to earn well above the <abbr class="spell">SGA</abbr> amount ($1,000 per month for nonblind beneficiaries in 2011) before their <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> payments fall to zero, whereas <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> beneficiaries can have their benefits suspended or terminated for work when their earnings are just above the <abbr class="spell">SGA</abbr> amount after they have used up their 9 <abbr class="spell">TWP</abbr> months and 3 grace period months. See O'Leary, Livermore, and Stapleton (2011).</p>
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<p><a href="#mt16" id="mn16">16</a> The data we submitted to <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> for the purposes of this review were more recent than those used in this analysis, specifically, cases with months off of the rolls for work from July 2008 through December 2008 (using the 2008 <abbr class="spell">TRF</abbr>).</p>
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<p><a href="#mt17" id="mn17">17</a> The <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> reviewer first checked to see if the beneficiary had a payment status code or suspension/termination code that indicated no cash benefit because of work. The reviewer then checked for verified earnings above <abbr class="spell">SGA</abbr> based on earnings reported directly to <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> or reported to the Internal Revenue Service; for the latter, earnings are annual, so the reviewer divided earnings by 12 to get a monthly amount. The reviewer also checked the National Directory of New Hires (<abbr class="spell">NDNH</abbr>), but none of the cases had <abbr class="spell">NDNH</abbr> data for the quarter in question. The reviewer considered a combination of the payment status indicating a suspension/termination because of work with evidence of earnings above <abbr class="spell">SGA</abbr> for the month in question from any of the earnings sources as positive evidence that the month was an <abbr class="spell">STW</abbr> month.</p>
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<p><a href="#mt18" id="mn18">18</a> Revisions to the <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> indicator in light of the investigations undertaken for purposes of this study are continuing. However, such revisions have not substantively changed the frequency with which <abbr class="spell">EN</abbr>s received outcome payments in the months when, according to the <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> indicator, their <abbr class="spell">MO</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">OO</abbr> clients were in <abbr class="spell">STW</abbr> status. We are confident that any remaining revisions to the <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> indicator will not lead to findings materially different than those presented here.</p>
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<p><a href="#mt19" id="mn19">19</a> Under the assumption stated and as <a href="#table9">Table 9</a> shows, the number of months in which benefits were actually in nonpayment status following suspension or termination for work is the sum of (a) the <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> variable = Yes, months with outcome payments (8,484); (b) the number of <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> months = Yes, months with <abbr class="spell">SGA</abbr> evidence (9,257); and (c) the number of <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> months = No, months with evidence of <abbr class="spell">SGA</abbr> (2,041)—for a total of 19,782 months. The percentage of those months in which the <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> indicator is estimated to be accurate is (9,257 + 8,484)/19,782 = 89.7 percent.</p>
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<p class="secondpara">Similarly, the number of months in which benefits were actually in current-pay status or in nonpayment status for a reason other than work is the sum of (a) the number of <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> months = Yes, months with no outcome payments and no evidence of <abbr class="spell">SGA</abbr> (1,243); (b) the number of <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> months = No, months with no payment (321,691); (c) the number of <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> months = No, months with a milestone payment (3,524); and (d) the number of <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> months = No, months with an outcome payment, but no evidence of <abbr class="spell">SGA</abbr> (817)—for a total of 327,275 months. The percentage of such months in which the <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> indicator is estimated to be accurate is (321,691 + 3,524 + 817)/327,275 = 99.6 percent. We excluded from both calculations the 414 months with <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> = Yes, with inconclusive evidence of <abbr class="spell">SGA</abbr>.</p>
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<p><a href="#mt20" id="mn20">20</a> The number of reviewed months found to be actual months of nonpayment status following suspension or termination for work is the sum of the 67 months with <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> = Yes, with evidence of <abbr class="spell">SGA</abbr> and the 15 months with <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> = No, with evidence of <abbr class="spell">SGA</abbr>. The estimated standard error for the number of reviewed months that are <abbr class="spell">NSTW</abbr> months is 3.8.</p>
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<p><a href="#mt21" id="mn21">21</a> In December 2006, there were 10,362,419 <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> or <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only beneficiaries aged <span class="nobr">18–64</span> (<abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> 2009, Table 65).</p>
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<p><a href="#mt22" id="mn22">22</a> In December 2002, there were 9,106,014 <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> or <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only beneficiaries aged <span class="nobr">18–64</span>. By December 2006, this number had increased to 10,362,419 (<abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> 2009, Table 65).</p>
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</div>
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<div id="references">
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<h2>References</h2>
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<p>Livermore, Gina, David Stapleton, and Allison Roche. 2009. <i>Work Activity and Use of Employment Supports under the Original Ticket to Work Regulations: Characteristics, Employment, and Sources of Support among Working-Age <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>-only and <abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> Beneficiaries</i>. Final report. Washington, <abbr class="spell">DC</abbr>: Mathematica Policy Research (April).</p>
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<p>Muller, L. Scott. 1992. "Disability Beneficiaries Who Work and Their Experience under Program Work Incentives." <i>Social Security Bulletin</i> 55(2): <span class="nobr">2–19</span>.</p>
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<p>Newcomb, Chad, Suzanne Payne, and Mikki D. Waid. 2003. "What Do We Know about Disability Beneficiaries' Work and Use of Work Incentives Prior to Ticket? Background Information and Baseline Data." In <i>Paying for Results in Vocational Rehabilitation: Will Provider Incentives Work for Ticket to Work?,</i> edited by Kalman Rupp and Stephen H. Bell, <span class="nobr">31–70</span>. Washington, <abbr class="spell">DC</abbr>: Urban Institute Press. </p>
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<p>O'Leary, Paul, Gina Livermore, and David C. Stapleton. 2011. "Employment of Individuals in the Social Security Disability Programs." <i>Social Security Bulletin </i>71(3): <span class="nobr">1–10</span>.</p>
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<p>Schimmel, Jody, David C. Stapleton, and Jae Song. Forthcoming. "How Common is 'Parking' among Social Security Disability Insurance (<abbr class="spell">SSDI</abbr>) Beneficiaries? Evidence from the 1999 Change in the Level of Substantial Gainful Activity (<abbr class="spell">SGA</abbr>)." <i>Social Security Bulletin</i>.</p>
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<p>Stapleton, David C., Gina A. Livermore, Craig Thornton, Bonnie O'Day, Robert Weathers, Krista Harrison, So O'Neill, Emily Sama Martin, David Wittenburg, and Debra Wright. 2008. <i>Ticket to Work at the Crossroads: A Solid Foundation with an Uncertain Future</i>. Washington, <abbr class="spell">DC</abbr>: Mathematica Policy Research (September).</p>
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<p>Stapleton, David, Su Liu, Dawn Phelps, and Sarah Prenovitz. 2010a. <i>Work Activity and Use of Employment Supports under the Original Ticket to Work Regulations:</i> <i>Longitudinal Statistics for New Social Security Disability Insurance Beneficiaries</i>. Final report. Washington, <abbr class="spell">DC</abbr>: Mathematica Policy Research (December).</p>
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<p>Stapleton, David C., Jody Schimmel, Miriam Loewenberg, and Sarah Prenovitz. 2010b. <i>Work Activity and Use of Employment Supports under the Original Ticket to Work Regulations: Time That Beneficiaries Spend Off the Rolls Due to Work and the Payments Generated for Employment Networks</i>. Final report. Washington, <abbr class="spell">DC</abbr>: Mathematica Policy Research (December).</p>
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<p>[<abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr>] Social Security Administration. 2009.<i> Annual Statistical Report on the Social Security Disability Insurance Program, 2008</i>. Baltimore, <abbr title="Maryland">MD</abbr>: <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> (July).</p>
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<p>———. 2011. <i>2011 Redbook: A Summary Guide to Employment Supports for Persons with Disabilities under the Social Security Disability Insurance and Supplemental Security Income Programs</i>. Baltimore, <abbr title="Maryland">MD</abbr>: <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr>.</p>
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