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<h1 itemprop="headline">Elderly Poverty and Supplemental Security Income</h1>
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<div id="hByline">by <span itemprop="author">Joyce Nicholas and Michael Wiseman</span><br>Social Security Bulletin, <abbr title="Volume">Vol.</abbr> 69, <abbr title="Number">No.</abbr> 1, 2009 (released May 2009)</div>
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<div id="breadcrumbs" itemscope itemtype="http://schema.org/BreadcrumbList">You are here: <span itemprop="itemListElement" itemscope itemtype="http://schema.org/ListItem"><a href="/" itemprop="item"><span itemprop="name">Social Security Administration</span></a><meta itemprop="position" content="1" /></span> > <span itemprop="itemListElement" itemscope itemtype="http://schema.org/ListItem"><a href="/policy/index.html" itemprop="item"><span itemprop="name">Research, Statistics & Policy Analysis</span></a><meta itemprop="position" content="2" /></span> > <span itemprop="itemListElement" itemscope itemtype="http://schema.org/ListItem"><a href="/policy/docs/ssb/index.html" itemprop="item"><span itemprop="name">Social Security Bulletin</span></a><meta itemprop="position" content="3" /></span> > <span itemprop="itemListElement" itemscope itemtype="http://schema.org/ListItem"><a href="index.html" itemprop="item"><span itemprop="name"><abbr title="Volume">Vol.</abbr> 69, <abbr title="Number">No.</abbr> 1</span></a><meta itemprop="position" content="4" /></span></div>
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<div class="innards">
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<div class="introBox">
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<p id="synopsis" itemprop="description">Provided here are the absolute and relative poverty status of 2002 elderly Supplemental Security Income (<abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>) recipients. Official poverty estimates are generated from the Current Population Survey's Annual Social and Economic Supplement (<abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">ASEC</abbr>). The poverty study presented here differs from previous studies in that it is based on <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">ASEC</abbr> income and weight records conditionally adjusted by matching Social Security administrative data. This effort improves the coverage of <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> receipt and the accuracy of <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> estimates. The adjusted <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/administrative matched data reveal lower 2002 poverty rates among elderly persons (with and without <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> payments) than those generated from the unadjusted <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">ASEC</abbr> data.</p>
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<hr />
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<div class="eightypercent">
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<p>Joyce Nicholas is a social science research analyst in the Office of Program Development and Research within the Office of Retirement and Disability Policy, Social Security Administration. Michael Wiseman is a professor at George Washington University.</p>
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<p><i>Acknowledgments</i>: The authors thank Paul Davies and Howard Iams for sharing their expertise on <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> administrative data and are especially appreciative of the helpful comments and suggestions provided by Kalman Rupp, Joyce Manchester, Glenn Springstead, Tom Rush, Tom Hale, Jim Sears, and Lynn Fisher.</p>
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<p>Contents of this publication are <a href="/policy/accessibility.html">not copyrighted</a>; any items may be reprinted, but citation of the <i>Social Security Bulletin</i> as the source is requested. The findings and conclusions presented in the <i>Bulletin</i> are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the Social Security Administration.</p>
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<div id="errataBox">
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<p>The original print and web versions of this article contained errors in <a href="#table3">Table 3</a> and the corresponding text discussing <a href="#table3">Table 3</a>.</p>
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<p>In <a href="#table3">Table 3</a>, the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">DER</abbr> labels in <span class="nobr">columns 4–6</span> were incorrectly transposed and should have been <abbr class="spell">DER</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>, <abbr class="spell">DER</abbr>-<abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>, and <abbr class="spell">DER</abbr>-<abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>, respectively. In addition, data in the rows "Missing or zero" and "Total" under columns "Mean difference in <abbr class="spell">DER</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> earnings" and "Standard deviation of difference" were incorrect as was the percentage in the row "Zero <abbr class="spell">DER</abbr>; <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> greater than 0" under the column "Earnings distribution, Percent." Corrected data now appear in the web version of this report.</p>
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<p>The text discussing <a href="#table3">Table 3</a> in "<a href="#TheDER">The <abbr class="spell">DER</abbr></a>" subsection under "<a href="#TheMerge">The Merge</a>" heading has been corrected as follows:</p>
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<p>Last sentence of the first paragraph:<br>"Despite these income-loss cases, on average, reports of adults with lower-range <abbr class="spell">DER</abbr> earnings have higher earnings in the <span class="linethrough silent"><abbr class="spell">DER</abbr></span> <span class="maroon underline"><abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr></span> than are <span class="linethrough silent">reported</span> <span class="maroon underline">indicated</span> in the <span class="linethrough silent"><abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr></span> <span class="maroon underline"><abbr class="spell">DER</abbr></span>."</p>
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<p>Second sentence of the second paragraph:<br>"In this range the <span class="linethrough silent"><abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr></span> <span class="maroon underline"><abbr class="spell">DER</abbr></span> earnings totals on average are higher than amounts reported in the <span class="linethrough silent"><abbr class="spell">DER</abbr></span> <span class="maroon underline"><abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr></span>, with the most dramatic differences occurring at the highest levels."</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<h2>Abstract</h2>
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<div class="abbrtable">
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<table role="presentation">
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<caption>Selected Abbreviations</caption>
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<tr>
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<td><abbr class="spell">ASEC</abbr></td>
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<td>Annual Social and Economic Supplement</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td><abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr></td>
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<td>Current Population Survey</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td><abbr class="spell">DER</abbr></td>
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<td>Detailed Earnings Record</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td><abbr class="spell">DI</abbr></td>
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<td>Disability Insurance</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td><abbr class="spell">FBR</abbr></td>
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<td>federal benefit rate</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td><abbr>FICA</abbr></td>
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<td>Federal Insurance Contributions Act</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td><abbr class="spell">MEF</abbr></td>
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<td>Master Earnings File</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td><abbr class="spell">NRC</abbr></td>
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<td>National Research Council</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td><abbr class="spell">OASDI</abbr></td>
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<td>Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td><abbr class="spell">PHUS</abbr></td>
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<td>Payment History Update System</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td><abbr class="spell">SECA</abbr></td>
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<td>Self-Employment Contributions Act</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td><abbr class="spell">SER</abbr></td>
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<td>Summary Earnings Record</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td><abbr class="spell">SGA</abbr></td>
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<td>substantial gainful activity</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td><abbr>SIPP</abbr></td>
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<td>Survey of Income and Program Participation</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td><abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr></td>
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<td>Social Security Administration</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td><abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr></td>
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<td>Supplemental Security Income</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td><abbr class="spell">SSN</abbr></td>
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<td>Social Security number</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td><abbr class="spell">SSR</abbr></td>
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<td>Supplemental Security Record</td>
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</tr>
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</table>
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</div>
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<p>In the United States, poverty is generally assessed on the basis of income, as reported in the Current Population Survey's (<abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>'s) Annual Social and Economic Supplement (<abbr class="spell">ASEC</abbr>), using an official poverty standard established in the 1960s. The prevalence of receipt of means-tested transfers is underreported in the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>, with uncertain consequences for the measurement of poverty rates by both the official standard and by using alternative "relative" measures linked to the contemporaneous income distribution. The article reports results estimating the prevalence of poverty in 2002. We complete this effort by using a version of the 2003 <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">ASEC</abbr> for which a substantial majority (76 percent) of respondents have individual records matching administrative data from the Social Security Administration on earnings and receipt of income from the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance and Supplemental Security Income (<abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>) programs. Adjustment of the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> income data with administrative data substantially improves coverage of <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> receipt. The consequence for general poverty is sensitive to the merge procedures employed, but under both sets of merge procedures considered, the estimated poverty rate among all elderly persons and among elderly <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients is substantially less than rates estimated using the unadjusted <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>. The effect of the administrative adjustment is less significant for perception of relative poverty than for absolute poverty. We emphasize the effect of these adjustments on perception of poverty among the elderly in general and elderly <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients in particular.</p>
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<h2>Introduction</h2>
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<p>The decline in the elderly poverty rate is often cited as a major accomplishment of national poverty policy. From 1966 through 2006, the official poverty rate for persons 65 or older declined from 28.5 percent to 9.4 percent. In 1966, elderly poverty exceeded that of adults <span class="nobr">aged 18–65</span> by 18 percentage points. By 1993, parity with the poverty rate of other adults was achieved, and since that year, the elderly poverty rate has generally been over a percentage-point lower than that registered for adults of "working age" (DeNevas-Walt, Proctor, and Smith 2007, 50).</p>
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<p>Supplemental Security Income (<abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>)—the nation's safety net for the aged, blind, and disabled—presumably played some role in this decline and serves to ameliorate the consequences of poverty for those who remain poor. However, assessing the contribution of <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> payments to the reduction of elderly poverty raises three issues. First, receipt of <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> is significantly underreported, so any evaluation using standard sources—notably the Current Population Survey's (<abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>'s) Annual Social and Economic Supplement (<abbr class="spell">ASEC</abbr>)—is likely unreliable (Roemer 2000; Weinberg 2006). Second, the federal <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> payment is not alone sufficient to move recipients out of poverty, so the <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> effect, if present, must occur in combination with other family resources. Third, as is widely appreciated, the poverty standard itself is controversial, and its modest empirical basis is outdated (Citro and Michael 1995; Weinberg 2006; Blank 2008).</p>
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<p>This article addresses these measurement, context, and standards issues. On the measurement side, we investigate the consequences for perception of poverty among the elderly of using administrative information from the Social Security Administration (<abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr>) on earnings and income from the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (<abbr class="spell">OASDI</abbr>) and <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> programs to adjust <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">ASEC</abbr> data for underreporting. We consider the consequence of adjustment of income for all family members, not the elderly alone. On the standards side, we compare results using the official "absolute" poverty measure that is based on a threshold fixed in real terms with outcomes when poverty is assessed using a "relative" measure, that is, with reference to the general income distribution. Our investigation is limited to the 2003 <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">ASEC</abbr> (covering incomes in calendar year 2002); it is our intention to create a template for duplication of this analysis for subsequent years in a companion article.</p>
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<p>This work is informed by a substantial amount of earlier work by <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> analysts on procedures for merging administrative and survey data and for using the resulting hybrids to study the prevalence of poverty and dependence on <abbr class="spell">OASDI</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> benefits (see, for example, Sears and Rupp (2003); Koenig (2003); Koenig and Rupp (2004); and Fisher (2005)). We also refer to the labor economics literature on use of administrative data versus survey-derived information in analysis of earnings (Pedace and Bates 2000; Bound, Brown, and Mathiowetz 2001; Abowd and Stinson 2005; Dahl, DeLeire, and Schwabish 2008) and on the burgeoning Census Bureau (2007) work on the consequences of using alternative resource measures and poverty standards.</p>
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<p>Combining census and administrative data is not simple, and results are sensitive to several important decisions concerning where credence should rest. The credence issue is particularly important in working with earnings data; our approach is to develop two adjusted measures of income, one largely restricted to administrative amounts and the other more inclusive of survey responses. Reality, we argue, probably lies somewhere between the two. We find that incorporation of administrative data under both the restrictive and inclusive adjustment procedures has substantial consequences for perception of the prevalence of poverty by either absolute or relative standards. Our adjustments reduce the estimated aggregate official poverty rate in 2002 for all persons from 12.1 percent to <span class="nobr">9.3–11.8 percent;</span> the estimated poverty rate among elderly <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients is reduced from 48 percent to <span class="nobr">38.6–39.9 percent.</span> Estimated relative poverty among <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients also declines, but the effect of our adjustments on inferences about the relative poverty of the elderly is less significant than the effect on the official poverty measure. We argue these results present a challenge to those who would rely on unadjusted data for inferences about the prevalence of poverty or program take-up. We suggest that further experimentation with combining administrative data with <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> data be given high priority. Such investigations should cover more years and incorporate administrative data on other sources of income.</p>
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<p>To reach these conclusions, we take the following route. The next section presents a brief overview of the <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> program. The <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> and pertinent <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> administrative data are then reviewed. For a variety of reasons including their own choice, not all persons in households interviewed for the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> can be matched to <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> administrative records. Next, we discuss procedures for data preparation and the prevalence of successful match. Our strategy for merging the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> and administrative data is then outlined. We discuss three alternatives for handling the shortfall of our incomplete match. The section that follows reports the consequences for estimating the prevalence of poverty in 2002 and of incorporating administrative data using the official poverty standard. The effect of our adjustments on estimates of the total population of <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients is also discussed in this section. We then repeat the analysis using a relative poverty measure. The last section presents our conclusions and suggestions for future research.</p>
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<h2><abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>: An Overview</h2>
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<p>Although our focus is on the elderly, we include rules pertinent to children and nonelderly adults because our data adjustments involve all persons. In general, the data we cite are for 2002, the focal year for our subsequent calculations.</p>
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<p>The <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> program provides a basic monthly national income guarantee, called the federal benefit rate (<abbr class="spell">FBR</abbr>) to children and adults with disabilities (including the blind) as well as to persons aged 65 or older. The <abbr class="spell">FBR</abbr> is adjusted annually for inflation. In 2002, the <abbr class="spell">FBR</abbr> was $545 per month ($6,540 per year) for a single individual and $817 ($9,804 per year) for a couple (<abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> 2003). <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> is intended to be a program of last resort. Accordingly, payments are reduced if an individual or a couple has earnings or other income or receives "in-kind support and maintenance" (<abbr class="spell">ISM</abbr>), and the amount depends as well on a person's living arrangement. In all states<sup><a href="#mn1" id="mt1">1</a></sup> except one, the federal <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> payment is augmented for at least some <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients by a state supplemental payment (<abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> 2004). In most states, <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients are also immediately eligible for Medicaid, and if they live alone they are categorically eligible for food stamps (except in California, where the food stamp benefit is incorporated into the state supplement).</p>
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<p>To be eligible, <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> nonelderly (younger than age 65) applicants must pass a disability test. Both elderly and nonelderly individuals must meet the same income and resource requirements.</p>
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<p>For persons aged 18 or older, financial eligibility requires that countable income (whether from work or other sources) be less than the current <abbr class="spell">FBR</abbr> plus, where available, any state supplement. Certain income exclusions are applied to the calculation of net income. <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> program rules exclude the first $20 of income from all sources, $65 of earned income (for a total exclusion from earnings of $85 if the applicant or recipient does not have any unearned income), and half of any additional earnings beyond $65. The <abbr class="spell">FBR</abbr> is reduced by <span class="nobr">one-third</span> for applicants or recipients receiving food and shelter—<abbr class="spell">ISM</abbr>—in another's household and not contributing to those expenses. Generally, resources cannot exceed $2,000 for an individual and $3,000 for a couple, but one's home and automobile as well as certain other resources are not counted.</p>
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<p>As for children less than 18 years of age, the financial eligibility requirements generally pertain to the parents, whose income from sources other than public assistance is partially deemed to the child. Before any income is deemed to the child recipient, certain exclusions are applied to account for needs of other family members. The disability test for children is that the child must have a medically determinable impairment (or a combination of impairments) resulting in "marked and severe functional limitations."</p>
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<p>For persons aged 65 or older, only the financial test for <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> eligibility applies. The disability test for nonelderly adults is the same test used for Social Security Disability Insurance (<abbr class="spell">DI</abbr>) and is quite stringent. It requires that the applicant be either blind or have a physical or mental impairment that prevents him or her from engaging in any substantial gainful activity (<abbr class="spell">SGA</abbr>) and that has lasted or is expected to last for a continuous period of at least 12 months or to result in death. <abbr class="spell">SGA</abbr> is generally defined in terms of specific earnings thresholds. In 2002 the <abbr class="spell">SGA</abbr> standard was $780 or more per month, so applicants judged capable of earning this much anywhere in the economy were ineligible for <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>. The threshold of <abbr class="spell">SGA</abbr> is automatically adjusted each year for changes in the average wage.</p>
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<p>Once eligibility is established, the monthly <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> payment is simply the <abbr class="spell">FBR</abbr> (plus the applicable state supplement), less any countable income. Because eligibility is not determined by total household or even family income, a substantial number of <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients living with persons other than their spouse are not poor, although by official standards anyone living on the <abbr class="spell">FBR</abbr> alone is. In 2002, the official poverty standard was $9,359 for a nonelderly single person and $8,628 if aged 65 or older; the standard was $12,047 for a couple (again, nonelderly) and $10,874 if the "householder" was aged 65 or older. The annualized <abbr class="spell">FBR</abbr>—$6,450 per year for a single individual and $9,804 per year for a couple—was therefore less than even the poverty standard applied to elderly persons. Despite this shortfall, it is possible for <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> payments, when considered in combination with the income of other family members, to lift persons, including the elderly, out of poverty as officially measured. For others, <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> fills at least a portion of the shortfall between income and the poverty threshold and moves them upward in the general income distribution.</p>
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<p>The <abbr class="spell">FBR</abbr> is indexed so that the benefit stays constant in real terms.<sup><a href="#mn2" id="mt2">2</a></sup> However, the assets limits and various income exclusions were fixed in nominal terms before the interval studied here and hence declined in real terms by 25 percent from 1993 through 2002. This has presumably reduced access to <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>.</p>
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<h2>The Data</h2>
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<p>We work with 2002 data from the 2003 <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">ASEC</abbr> and contemporaneous administrative files.</p>
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<h3>The <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr></h3>
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<p>The <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> is a monthly survey of approximately 60,000 households conducted by the Census Bureau and the Bureau of Labor Statistics.<sup><a href="#mn3" id="mt3">3</a></sup> This survey is the main source of information about employment characteristics of the civilian noninstitutionalized American population. The Bureau of Labor Statistics gathers information about the employment status of each member of an interviewed household, who is at least 15 years of age. The <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> provides household, family, and person-level data about employment, unemployment, earnings, hours of work, and other indicators. Additional data are collected in the <abbr class="spell">ASEC</abbr> for <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> households (and some others) on various family characteristics in addition to income received in the previous year (Census Bureau 2003).</p>
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<p>The unweighted 2003 <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">ASEC</abbr> data set (covering income in calendar year 2002) consists of 216,424 person and 78,310 household observations. We exclude 564 children younger than 15 years of age who are unrelated to the reference person for their household or anyone else in the unit. This adjustment is required because no income data are collected for such persons; the same exclusion is applied by the Census Bureau in its poverty calculations. The exclusion reduces the sample to 215,860 members and the estimated size of the sampled population by about 0.2 percent, to 285,317,346 persons.</p>
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<p>To protect confidentiality, income data in the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> are subject to top- and bottom-coding. When reported amounts exceed certain thresholds, the actual amounts reported are replaced (top-coded) with average reported amounts for the same item for all surveyed persons with above-threshold amounts and identical (on certain dimensions) demographic characteristics. Bottom-coding occurs for losses from farm and nonfarm self-employment income. When persons are known to have received certain types of income but amounts are not reported, the Census Bureau imputes the missing amount using "hot-deck" methods. In this procedure, missing values are imputed using the amounts reported for a person with identical (on certain dimensions) demographic characteristics encountered earlier in the data adjustment process. It is possible for top- or bottom-coded amounts to be used in such imputations, depending on the data processing sequence.</p>
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<h3><abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> Administrative Files</h3>
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<p>Social Security's administrative files of interest here include records of individual earnings in employment covered by the <abbr class="spell">OASDI</abbr> programs, <abbr class="spell">OASDI</abbr> benefits paid, and payments made from the <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> program. The data sources for these programs are the Summary Earnings Record (<abbr class="spell">SER</abbr>) and the Detailed Earnings Record (<abbr class="spell">DER</abbr>) for earnings, the Payment History Update System (<abbr class="spell">PHUS</abbr>) for <abbr class="spell">OASDI</abbr>, and the Supplemental Security Record (<abbr class="spell">SSR</abbr>) for <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>.</p>
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<p class="noindent"><span class="h4">Summary Earnings Record</span>. These data are an extract from <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr>'s Master Earnings File (<abbr class="spell">MEF</abbr>). A primary <abbr class="spell">MEF</abbr> record is created when a person receives a Social Security number (<abbr class="spell">SSN</abbr>); thus every person in the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">ASEC</abbr> for whom an <abbr class="spell">SSN</abbr> match was successfully accomplished will have an <abbr class="spell">SER</abbr>.</p>
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<p class="noindent"><span class="h4">Detailed Earnings Record</span>. This type of record is an extract from the <abbr class="spell">MEF</abbr> that includes data on total earnings from all sources, including wages and salaries and income from self-employment, which is subject to Federal Insurance Contributions Act (<abbr>FICA</abbr>) and/or Self-Employment Contributions Act (<abbr class="spell">SECA</abbr>) taxation. <abbr class="spell">DER</abbr> coverage extends to all earnings reported by employers on workers' <span class="nobr">W-2</span> Forms, and the amounts are not capped.<sup><a href="#mn4" id="mt4">4</a></sup> These data include deferred wages such as contributions to 401(k) retirement plans.<sup><a href="#mn5" id="mt5">5</a></sup> Because individuals do not make <abbr class="spell">SECA</abbr> contributions if they lose money in self-employment, only positive self-employment earnings are reported in the <abbr class="spell">DER</abbr>. Our data are aggregated across all employers for each individual and include wage and salary income, income from self-employment, and deferred income. The data aggregation was performed by <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr>'s Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics following a protocol established by the agency.</p>
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<p class="noindent"><span class="h4">Payment History Update System (<abbr class="spell">PHUS</abbr>)</span>. These data record <abbr class="spell">OASDI</abbr> (or Social Security) benefits when paid. <abbr class="spell">PHUS</abbr> data include both total benefit and the amount of benefit subtracted for Medicare Part B premiums. A key feature of the <abbr class="spell">PHUS</abbr> is that monthly amounts recorded here represent actual payments, not entitlement. Hence if a person begins entitlement for a Social Security benefit in November 2001 but does not actually receive a check for the amount until February 2002, the payment will be recorded for 2002. This corresponds to income received as reported in the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">ASEC</abbr>.<sup><a href="#mn6" id="mt6">6</a></sup></p>
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<p class="noindent"><span class="h4">Supplemental Security Record</span>. This record provides the information that is needed to calculate and distribute <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> payments. <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> typically creates an <abbr class="spell">SSR</abbr> record when an individual files an <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> application. Each person's record includes eligibility and payment information, as well as income information about ineligible spouses and parents that is pertinent to establishing and maintaining the individual's eligibility. <abbr class="spell">SSR</abbr> payments are recorded as disbursed. The <abbr class="spell">SSR</abbr> includes state <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> supplements if <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> makes the payment on the state's behalf. <span class="nobr">Thirty-four</span> states, by 2002, had chosen to administer some or all of the supplementation themselves (<abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> 2004, 7). Payments made in state-administered <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> supplement programs are not included in the <abbr class="spell">SSR</abbr>. For the most part, state supplements are small, and some of the largest (California, Massachusetts, and New York, for example) are federally administered (<abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> 2004, 7). However, benefits in Alaska, Connecticut, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and a few other states are substantial and state administered. By far the largest state-administered state supplement is Alaska's. In 2002, that state added $362 to the <abbr class="spell">FBR</abbr> for singles and $528 to the <abbr class="spell">FBR</abbr> for couples living independently (<abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> 2004, 13).</p>
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<p>We do not have administrative data on sources of income other than wages and salaries, self-employment, <abbr class="spell">OASDI</abbr>, and <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>. For these other categories of income we must rely on the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>.</p>
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<h2>The Match</h2>
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<p>The data we employ are the result of collaboration between <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> and the Census Bureau. The sources employed in the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/administrative data match are detailed in <a href="#atA" id="arA">Appendix A</a>.</p>
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<h3>The Procedure</h3>
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<p><abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> interviewers request <abbr class="spell">SSN</abbr>s for all persons aged 15 or older in each household in the address-based <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> household sample. Interviewees are not required to provide these data, but most do, or at least permit the Census Bureau to search <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr>'s administrative files for it using names, birth dates, and addresses. <abbr class="spell">SSN</abbr>s for persons younger than age 15 are all obtained by searching administrative data. Once collected, the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> data are extensively reviewed and reorganized, missing values are imputed, and potentially identifiable outlier income values are top- or bottom-coded. Eventually a public-use data set is released that is the source of most official Census Bureau publications, including annual poverty estimates. The public-use data set includes unique numeric identifiers constructed by the Census Bureau for each household, and for each person within the household a unique person identifier is included in the data set. These identifiers relate to file structure only and convey no information useful for determining the actual identity of <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> respondents.</p>
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<p>At the time of release of the public-use <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> data, a special encrypted file is provided to <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr>. This "cross-walk" file provides the <abbr class="spell">SSN</abbr> for each person in the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> for whom an <abbr class="spell">SSN</abbr> has been reported, identified by the household sequence number and person identifier. At <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr>, only one person has access to the cross-walk file. This person then uses the <abbr class="spell">SSN</abbr>s to construct <abbr class="spell">SER</abbr>, <abbr class="spell">DER</abbr>, <abbr class="spell">PHUS</abbr>, and <abbr class="spell">SSR</abbr> files for each person with a corresponding household sequence number and person identifier. Only the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> identifiers are retained. We employ these extracts for calendar year 2002 in the following analysis. On the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> side, we are working with the public-use <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> data sets available to all researchers.</p>
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<h3>The Outcome</h3>
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<p>Table 1 provides the first tabulation of the extent of match between the <abbr class="spell">SER</abbr> and our 2003 <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">ASEC</abbr> data. The analysis is based on age at the time of the March 2003 <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">ASEC</abbr> interview, so in some instances a person's age category will be one year greater than their age during all or part of 2002, when the earnings data are accumulated. Here and elsewhere we report separate tabulations for children (persons <span class="nobr">0–17</span> years old), "working-age" adults (<span class="nobr">18–64 years</span> old), the elderly (at least 65 years old), and various combinations.</p>
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<div class="table" id="table1">
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<table>
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<caption><span class="tableNumber">Table 1. </span>The <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">SER</abbr> match: 2003 <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">ASEC</abbr>, by age group</caption>
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<colgroup span="1" style="width:10em"></colgroup>
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|
<colgroup span="3" style="width:10em"></colgroup>
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|
<thead>
|
|
<tr>
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|
<th class="stubHeading" scope="col">Age group <sup>a</sup></th>
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<th scope="col">Total <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> records</th>
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<th scope="col">Total <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> records with an <abbr class="spell">SER</abbr> match</th>
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|
<th scope="col">Percent</th>
|
|
</tr>
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</thead>
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|
<tbody>
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|
<tr>
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|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><span class="nobr">0–17</span> <sup>b</sup></th>
|
|
<td>66,016</td>
|
|
<td>57,763</td>
|
|
<td>87.5</td>
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|
</tr>
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|
<tr>
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|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><span class="nobr">18–64</span></th>
|
|
<td>129,460</td>
|
|
<td>93,472</td>
|
|
<td>72.2</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">At least 65</th>
|
|
<td>20,384</td>
|
|
<td>13,804</td>
|
|
<td>67.7</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">At least 18</th>
|
|
<td>149,844</td>
|
|
<td>107,276</td>
|
|
<td>71.6</td>
|
|
</tr>
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|
<tr>
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|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">All groups</th>
|
|
<td>215,860</td>
|
|
<td>165,039</td>
|
|
<td>76.5</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tbody>
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|
<tfoot>
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<tr>
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|
<td class="firstNote" colspan="4">SOURCE: Authors' calculations using 2003 <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">ASEC</abbr> data matched to administrative records.</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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|
<td class="note" colspan="4">a. Age at time of <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">ASEC</abbr> interview.</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td class="lastNote" colspan="4">b. Sample excludes children younger than age 15 who are unrelated to others in their household. This exclusion is applied in all <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> poverty tabulations.</td>
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</tr>
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</tfoot>
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</table>
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</div>
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<p>The unweighted 2003 <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">SER</abbr> overall observation match rate is 76.5 percent.<sup><a href="#mn7" id="mt7">7</a></sup> We do not have data to tell how much of the residual is attributable to failure to report an <abbr class="spell">SSN</abbr> versus reporting an <abbr class="spell">SSN</abbr> for which no records exist. In the material that follows, we concentrate on adults (persons at least 18 years old). For this group, the match rate is 71.6 percent. Matched observations tend to have slightly lower weights than unmatched ones, so the weighted match rate for adults (persons aged 18 or older) is 68.3 percent.</p>
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<p>The match rates reported in Table 1 are based only on finding records in the <abbr class="spell">SER</abbr> with the same <abbr class="spell">SSN</abbr> as is reported by a respondent in the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> or derived for children from administrative data. It is possible that the match for some individuals is false because of misreporting of the <abbr class="spell">SSN</abbr> in the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> interview or because of multiple users of the same <abbr class="spell">SSN</abbr> in the <abbr class="spell">SER</abbr>. Some information on the quality of the match is provided by comparing age as reported in the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> to age as computed from <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> records. To do this, we limited our comparisons to those persons whose age at the time of the interview, as recorded in the <abbr class="spell">SER</abbr>, was 74 or younger because the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> top-codes age at 80. The results (available from the authors) are consistent with a good fit: Almost 99 percent of the adults in our matched group have a <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> age that differs from age recorded in <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> data by no more than a year. Interestingly, the fit is asymmetric. Almost all of the discrepancies are the result of a lower age report in the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> than in <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr>'s data. We have also compared <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> data by sex, and the discrepancy for all three age groups is less than 1 percent. In the remainder of the analysis, we accept the entire <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">SER</abbr> match as valid, foregoing to another day the development of procedures for identifying and excluding erroneous matches (Herzog, Sheuren, and Winkler 2007).</p>
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<h2 id="TheMerge">The Merge</h2>
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<p>We turn now to procedures for merging the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> data with <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> administrative records. The term "adjusted data" is used for any <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>-reported values that have been replaced with administrative data. Alteration in earnings records is discussed first, and then we detail reports of <abbr class="spell">OASDI</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> receipt. Many conflicts between income as reported in the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> and recorded in administrative data are found; particularly with regard to components of earnings, there is little basis for choosing between the two. Therefore, we created "restrictive" and "inclusive" income-adjusted data sets using different assumptions about the relationship between reported earnings and self-employment income in the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> and administrative records. For this procedural summary, unmatched <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> respondents in the data set are retained, but later in the article we report outcomes for a sample restricted to persons in families with at least one person with a <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">SER</abbr> match. The data is then reweighted to adjust for variation in match rates across types of individuals. The <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> collects data on 17 types of income, from alimony to veterans' benefits to wages and salaries. Our adjustments involve only earnings—wage and salary and self-employment income. For all other sources the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> amounts, including imputations and top-coded values, are retained.</p>
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<h3>The Strategy</h3>
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<p>The baseline for our calculations is income as reported in the public-use <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">ASEC</abbr>. We distinguish between our restrictive and inclusive assumptions at each step in the material that follows. Our procedural protocol is summarized in <a href="#atA">Appendix A</a>. In general, the restrictive assumption set gives credence to administrative data when both administrative and <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> reports are available, and the inclusive assumption set gives credence to <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> income reports when such reports exceed amounts recorded in our administrative sources. Our procedure incorporates three important choices: (1) when we compare <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> data with income reported in the <abbr class="spell">DER</abbr>, we generally work with total earnings—the sum of wages and salaries and self-employment income—rather than distinguish between wages and salaries and income from self-employment; (2) we work with the <abbr class="spell">DER</abbr>, but accept <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> earnings reports in the absence of <abbr class="spell">DER</abbr> amounts; and (3) we rely wholly on <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> administrative sources for income from <abbr class="spell">OASDI</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>.</p>
|
|
<p class="noindent"><span class="h4">Aggregate Earnings</span>. Roemer (2002, 12) argues that people report as wages or salaries in the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> (and the Survey of Income and Program Participation (<abbr>SIPP</abbr>)) some income that is identified as "self-employment" income by their employers. Table 2 reproduces Roemer's example for the 2003 <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">ASEC</abbr> and presents the average distribution for 1990, 1993, and 1996 combined, based on his data. All the data here are for persons for whom a matched <abbr class="spell">DER</abbr> is available and who have reported wage and salary in the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>. As the table indicates, Roemer, like us, finds substantial numbers of observations with wage and salary income in the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>, but no wage and salary or self-employment income in the <abbr class="spell">DER</abbr>. He suggests these cases reflect the "underground" economy, where income is not reported to the Internal Revenue Service. However, a significant number of persons with wage and salary income in the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> have only self-employment income in the <abbr class="spell">DER</abbr>. Roemer denotes these cases as "<abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> misclassification." The prevalence of such cases is of the same order of magnitude in both Roemer's and our data.</p>
|
|
<div class="table" id="table2">
|
|
<table>
|
|
<caption><span class="tableNumber">Table 2. </span>Number and percentage distribution of 2003 <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">ASEC</abbr> observations reporting wage and/or salary earnings in 2002, by presence of wages or self-employment income in the <abbr class="spell">DER</abbr></caption>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:25em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="2" style="width:10em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:15em"></colgroup>
|
|
<thead>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stubHeading" rowspan="2" scope="colgroup"><abbr class="spell">DER</abbr> earnings record group</th>
|
|
<th class="spanner" colspan="2" scope="colgroup">2003 <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">ASEC</abbr> </th>
|
|
<th scope="colgroup">Average for 1991, 1994, 1997—March <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> <sup>a</sup></th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th scope="col">Number</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Percent</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Percent</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</thead>
|
|
<tbody>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">Wage and salary earnings reported in the <abbr class="spell">DER</abbr>; no self-employment income reported.</th>
|
|
<td>66,582</td>
|
|
<td>89.2</td>
|
|
<td>89.5</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">Wage and salary earnings reported in the <abbr class="spell">DER</abbr> along with self-employment income.</th>
|
|
<td>3,596</td>
|
|
<td>4.8</td>
|
|
<td>3.5</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">No <abbr class="spell">DER</abbr> wages and salary or self-employment present ("<abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> underground").</th>
|
|
<td>2,872</td>
|
|
<td>3.8</td>
|
|
<td>5.2</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">No <abbr class="spell">DER</abbr> wages and salary present, but self-employment present ("<abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> misclassification").</th>
|
|
<td>1,591</td>
|
|
<td>2.1</td>
|
|
<td>1.8</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub2" scope="row">Total</th>
|
|
<td>74,641</td>
|
|
<td>100.0</td>
|
|
<td>100.0</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tbody>
|
|
<tfoot>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="firstNote" colspan="4">SOURCE: Authors' calculations using 2003 <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">ASEC</abbr> data matched to administrative records.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="note" colspan="4">NOTES: Sample is comprised of adult 2003 <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">ASEC</abbr> observations with matching <abbr class="spell">SER</abbr> data and positive reported wage and salary or self-employment income in the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>. </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="lastNote" colspan="4">a. From Roemer (2002, 12).</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tfoot>
|
|
</table>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<p>As indicated in <a href="#atA">Appendix A</a>, we work around the problem of misclassification by focusing on total earnings as denoted by Roemer for relevant cases in which no component of <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> self-employment income has been imputed. Aside from such cases, the general rule applied is that for the restrictive adjustment, the <abbr class="spell">DER</abbr> self-employment income amount is used except in cases in which the <abbr class="spell">DER</abbr> self-employment income total is zero and the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> indicates income loss. In these cases the negative <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> amount is used. For our inclusive alternative, <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>-reported income is used when the reported amounts are greater than what is recorded in the <abbr class="spell">DER</abbr> or, again, in cases of income loss not contradicted by the <abbr class="spell">DER</abbr>.</p>
|
|
<p id="TheDER"><span class="h4">The <abbr class="spell">DER</abbr></span>. Beyond possible confusion between self-employment and wage and salary income, for many individuals there is considerable discrepancy between total earnings as reported in the <abbr class="spell">DER</abbr> and in the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>. Table 3 sorts the 107,276 <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> adults with an <abbr class="spell">SER</abbr> match (see Table 1) on the basis of earnings as reported in the <abbr class="spell">DER</abbr>. Nearly 3 percent (3,096) of these adults had no matching <abbr class="spell">DER</abbr> record at all; we treat their <abbr class="spell">DER</abbr> earnings as zero. For each of the 11 <abbr class="spell">DER</abbr> earnings categories, we compare the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> report for total earnings with what is recorded in the <abbr class="spell">DER</abbr>. Several features of the data are important both for our reconstruction of the income distribution and interpretation of the results. First, a quarter of the matched respondents—26,589—have no <abbr class="spell">DER</abbr> earnings report at all. However, of this group a substantial number (3,986; see the bottom line of data in Table 3) have positive matching <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> records. Second, the four earnings categories covering the range <span class="nobr">$1–$39,999</span> account for over half (55 percent) of these adults. Within this range the overlap of the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">DER</abbr> earnings distributions is reasonably good, generally with identical amounts reported in the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> and the <abbr class="spell">DER</abbr> for median workers in each <abbr class="spell">DER</abbr> category and about half of all <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> reports falling within 25 percent or more of the corresponding <abbr class="spell">DER</abbr> total. Nevertheless, there is a lot of variance in the difference between the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">DER</abbr> totals. The lowest earnings categories include significant numbers of self-employed persons reporting income losses; for such cases the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> value is always lower than reported <abbr class="spell">DER</abbr> earnings. Despite these income-loss cases, on average, reports of adults with lower-range <abbr class="spell">DER</abbr> earnings have higher earnings in the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> than are indicated in the <abbr class="spell">DER</abbr>.</p>
|
|
<div class="table" id="table3">
|
|
<table>
|
|
<caption><span class="tableNumber">Table 3. </span>Distribution of <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> earnings reports relative to <abbr class="spell">DER</abbr> values</caption>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:10em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="2" style="width:5em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="2" style="width:8em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="2" style="width:5em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:8em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:8em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:8em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="2" style="width:5em"></colgroup>
|
|
<thead>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stubHeading" rowspan="2" scope="colgroup"><abbr class="spell">DER</abbr> earnings category ($)</th>
|
|
<th class="spanner" colspan="2" scope="colgroup">Earnings distribution</th>
|
|
<th class="spanner" colspan="2" scope="colgroup">Observations with <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> earnings values less than or equal to 0</th>
|
|
<th class="spanner" colspan="2" scope="colgroup"><abbr class="spell">DER</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> earnings ratio from .75 to 1.25</th>
|
|
<th rowspan="2" scope="colgroup">Median difference in <abbr class="spell">DER</abbr>-<abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> earnings ($)</th>
|
|
<th rowspan="2" scope="colgroup">Mean difference in <abbr class="spell">DER</abbr>-<abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> earnings ($)</th>
|
|
<th rowspan="2" scope="colgroup">Standard deviation of difference ($)</th>
|
|
<th class="spanner" colspan="2" scope="colgroup"><abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> value imputed</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th scope="col">Number</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Percent</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Less than 0</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Equal to 0</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Number</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Percent</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Number</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Percent</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</thead>
|
|
<tbody>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">Missing or zero <sup>a</sup></th>
|
|
<td>26,589</td>
|
|
<td>24.8</td>
|
|
<td>193</td>
|
|
<td>22,410</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>0</td>
|
|
<td>-3,561</td>
|
|
<td>18,132</td>
|
|
<td>3,143</td>
|
|
<td>11.8</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><span class="nobr">1–9,999</span></th>
|
|
<td>19,704</td>
|
|
<td>18.4</td>
|
|
<td>128</td>
|
|
<td>4,212</td>
|
|
<td>5,338</td>
|
|
<td>27.1</td>
|
|
<td>0</td>
|
|
<td>-4,581</td>
|
|
<td>19,272</td>
|
|
<td>4,616</td>
|
|
<td>23.4</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><span class="nobr">10,000–19,999</span></th>
|
|
<td>14,965</td>
|
|
<td>13.9</td>
|
|
<td>45</td>
|
|
<td>695</td>
|
|
<td>7,825</td>
|
|
<td>52.3</td>
|
|
<td>-179</td>
|
|
<td>-4,218</td>
|
|
<td>21,295</td>
|
|
<td>3,718</td>
|
|
<td>24.8</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><span class="nobr">20,000–29,999</span></th>
|
|
<td>13,563</td>
|
|
<td>12.6</td>
|
|
<td>15</td>
|
|
<td>267</td>
|
|
<td>9,205</td>
|
|
<td>67.9</td>
|
|
<td>0</td>
|
|
<td>-2,893</td>
|
|
<td>23,989</td>
|
|
<td>3,079</td>
|
|
<td>22.7</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><span class="nobr">30,000–39,999</span></th>
|
|
<td>10,580</td>
|
|
<td>9.9</td>
|
|
<td>5</td>
|
|
<td>143</td>
|
|
<td>7,688</td>
|
|
<td>72.7</td>
|
|
<td>160</td>
|
|
<td>-1,894</td>
|
|
<td>25,411</td>
|
|
<td>2,310</td>
|
|
<td>21.8</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><span class="nobr">40,000–49,999</span></th>
|
|
<td>6,860</td>
|
|
<td>6.4</td>
|
|
<td>8</td>
|
|
<td>76</td>
|
|
<td>5,110</td>
|
|
<td>74.5</td>
|
|
<td>521</td>
|
|
<td>-739</td>
|
|
<td>29,521</td>
|
|
<td>1,386</td>
|
|
<td>20.2</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><span class="nobr">50,000–59,999</span></th>
|
|
<td>4,561</td>
|
|
<td>4.3</td>
|
|
<td>6</td>
|
|
<td>40</td>
|
|
<td>3,325</td>
|
|
<td>72.9</td>
|
|
<td>1,219</td>
|
|
<td>1,025</td>
|
|
<td>30,205</td>
|
|
<td>923</td>
|
|
<td>20.2</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><span class="nobr">60,000–69,999</span></th>
|
|
<td>2,992</td>
|
|
<td>2.8</td>
|
|
<td>3</td>
|
|
<td>27</td>
|
|
<td>2,125</td>
|
|
<td>71.0</td>
|
|
<td>1,328</td>
|
|
<td>792</td>
|
|
<td>38,103</td>
|
|
<td>641</td>
|
|
<td>21.4</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><span class="nobr">70,000–84,899</span></th>
|
|
<td>2,663</td>
|
|
<td>2.5</td>
|
|
<td>3</td>
|
|
<td>24</td>
|
|
<td>1,876</td>
|
|
<td>70.4</td>
|
|
<td>2,553</td>
|
|
<td>3,735</td>
|
|
<td>38,271</td>
|
|
<td>544</td>
|
|
<td>20.4</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><span class="nobr">84,900–199,999</span></th>
|
|
<td>3,998</td>
|
|
<td>3.7</td>
|
|
<td>5</td>
|
|
<td>42</td>
|
|
<td>2,477</td>
|
|
<td>62.0</td>
|
|
<td>7,654</td>
|
|
<td>13,231</td>
|
|
<td>59,105</td>
|
|
<td>905</td>
|
|
<td>22.6</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">200,000 or more</th>
|
|
<td>801</td>
|
|
<td>0.7</td>
|
|
<td>0</td>
|
|
<td>6</td>
|
|
<td>185</td>
|
|
<td>23.1</td>
|
|
<td>100,724</td>
|
|
<td>153,881</td>
|
|
<td>403,502</td>
|
|
<td>241</td>
|
|
<td>30.1</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub2" scope="row">Total</th>
|
|
<td>107,276</td>
|
|
<td>100.0</td>
|
|
<td>411</td>
|
|
<td>27,942</td>
|
|
<td>45,154</td>
|
|
<td>42.1</td>
|
|
<td>0</td>
|
|
<td>-1,125</td>
|
|
<td>45,364</td>
|
|
<td>21,506</td>
|
|
<td>20.0</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">Zero <abbr class="spell">DER</abbr>; <sup>a</sup> <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> greater than 0</th>
|
|
<td>3,986</td>
|
|
<td>3.7</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>-14,000</td>
|
|
<td>-23,755</td>
|
|
<td>41,396</td>
|
|
<td>1,677</td>
|
|
<td>42.1</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tbody>
|
|
<tfoot>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="firstNote" colspan="12">SOURCE: Authors' calculations using 2003 <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">ASEC</abbr> data matched to administrative records.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="note" colspan="12">NOTES: This table consists of unweighted adult <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> respondents with an <abbr class="spell">SER</abbr> match.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="note" colspan="12">. . . = not applicable.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="lastNote" colspan="12">a. Includes adults with no <abbr class="spell">DER</abbr> match.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tfoot>
|
|
</table>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<p>At earnings levels above $50,000 there is a reversal of pattern. In this range the <abbr class="spell">DER</abbr> earnings totals on average are higher than amounts reported in the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>, with the most dramatic differences occurring at the highest levels. Interpretation of these outcomes is complicated by the high incidence of imputations; overall, one out of five of the matched adult observations has some element of earnings imputed. These imputations add substantially to both the mean and variance of the difference between <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">DER</abbr> earnings reports.</p>
|
|
<p>Clearly more investigative work could be done, but developing alternative imputation approaches for the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> is beyond the scope of this article. Instead, we fall back to development of the two alternatives. For the restrictive estimates, we distinguish between observations with zero and positive <abbr class="spell">DER</abbr> values. In cases with a positive <abbr class="spell">DER</abbr> amount, we use the <abbr class="spell">DER</abbr> report minus any self-employment income loss reported in the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>. For cases with an <abbr class="spell">SER</abbr> match and no <abbr class="spell">DER</abbr> earnings (as well as all adults without a match), we opt to accept the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> amount. We do this largely on the basis of suspicion that the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> captures unreported income and concern that disregarding the Census Bureau report altogether is too restrictive in instances in which evidence (from the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> interview) exists that work has occurred. Our inclusive estimate is generally the greater of the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">DER</abbr> amounts unless no earnings are reported in the <abbr class="spell">DER</abbr>, and the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> includes a self-employment income loss. For these individuals the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> value is employed. One implication is that our inclusive estimate includes some cases in which a <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> imputation or top-coded amount is used in place of a lesser <abbr class="spell">DER</abbr> value.<sup><a href="#mn8" id="mt8">8</a></sup></p>
|
|
<p class="noindent"><span class="h4">Administrative Data on Benefits</span>. For <abbr class="spell">OASDI</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>, we rely on <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> administrative data for both our restrictive and inclusive income adjustments. Incorporation of <abbr class="spell">OASDI</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> administrative data is complicated by the absence of administrative information on state-administered <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> supplements and evidence that <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> respondents sometimes confuse <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> payments with <abbr class="spell">OASDI</abbr> benefits. This confusion problem is illustrated by the tabulation reported in Table 4.</p>
|
|
<div class="table" id="table4">
|
|
<table>
|
|
<caption><span class="tableNumber">Table 4. </span>Average reported <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">OASDI</abbr> benefits, by <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> reporting status: <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">SSR</abbr> matched adult sample, 2002</caption>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:10em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="5" style="width:10em"></colgroup>
|
|
<thead>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stubHeading" rowspan="2" id="c1"><abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> benefit category</th>
|
|
<th rowspan="2" id="c2">Observation counts</th>
|
|
<th class="spanner" colspan="2" id="c3"><abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> </th>
|
|
<th class="spanner" colspan="2" id="c4"><abbr class="spell">OASDI</abbr> </th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th id="c5" headers="c3">In <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr></th>
|
|
<th id="c6" headers="c3">In <abbr class="spell">SSR</abbr></th>
|
|
<th id="c7" headers="c4">In <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr></th>
|
|
<th id="c8" headers="c4">In <abbr class="spell">PHUS</abbr></th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</thead>
|
|
<tbody>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td></td>
|
|
<th class="panel" colspan="5" id="r1">Number of positive values</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r2" headers="r1 c1">Reports of positive <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> receipt</th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 c2">1,681</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 c3 c5">1,681</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 c3 c6">1,681</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 c4 c7">719</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 c4 c8">744</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r3" headers="r1 c1">Reports of negative <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> receipt</th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r3 c2">1,119</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r3 c3 c5">0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r3 c3 c6">1,119</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r3 c4 c7">658</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r3 c4 c8">531</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub2" id="r4" headers="r1 r3 c1">Total</th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r3 r4 c2">2,800</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r3 r4 c3 c5">1,681</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r3 r4 c3 c6">2,800</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r3 r4 c4 c7">1,377</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r3 r4 c4 c8">1,275</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td></td>
|
|
<th class="panel" colspan="5" id="r5">Average benefit values of observations with positive values ($)</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r6" headers="r5 c1">Reports of positive <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> receipt</th>
|
|
<td headers="r5 r6 c2">1,681</td>
|
|
<td headers="r5 r6 c3 c5">4,671</td>
|
|
<td headers="r5 r6 c3 c6">4,592</td>
|
|
<td headers="r5 r6 c4 c7">5,892</td>
|
|
<td headers="r5 r6 c4 c8">5,039</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r7" headers="r5 c1">Reports of negative <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> receipt</th>
|
|
<td headers="r5 r7 c2">1,119</td>
|
|
<td headers="r5 r7 c3 c5">0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r5 r7 c3 c6">4,400</td>
|
|
<td headers="r5 r7 c4 c7">7,382</td>
|
|
<td headers="r5 r7 c4 c8">5,431</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tbody>
|
|
<tfoot>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="onlyNote" colspan="6">SOURCE: Authors' calculations using 2003 <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">ASEC</abbr> data matched to administrative records.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tfoot>
|
|
</table>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<p>We have 2,800 <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">ASEC</abbr> adult observations in the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> that are known from the <abbr class="spell">SSR</abbr> match to have received <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> payments in 2002. Table 4 divides these observations between those for whom <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> was also reported in the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> and those for whom the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> indicates no <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> receipt. Note the following: For individuals reported to the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> interviewer to be <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients, the average amount ($4,671) is quite similar to the average amount recorded in the <abbr class="spell">SSR</abbr> ($4,592). Moreover, the average <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> payment recorded in the <abbr class="spell">SSR</abbr> is on the same order of magnitude for adults with and without positive <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> records. As would be expected given that state-administered <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> supplements are not captured by the <abbr class="spell">SSR</abbr>, the average benefit reported in the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> exceeds the average benefit recorded in the <abbr class="spell">SSR</abbr> for the same adults.</p>
|
|
<p>The last two columns in Table 4 show average <abbr class="spell">OASDI</abbr> amounts from the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> and the <abbr class="spell">PHUS</abbr> for the adults with a <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">SSR</abbr> match and positive benefit values from the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> and/or <abbr class="spell">PHUS</abbr>'s <abbr class="spell">OASDI</abbr> records. In general the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> totals are greater. As anticipated, the differential between the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> and the <abbr class="spell">PHUS</abbr>'s <abbr class="spell">OASDI</abbr> reports is larger for people identified as <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients by the <abbr class="spell">SSR</abbr>, but for whom no <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> payments are recorded in the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>. However, the offset is not complete. The average <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> <i>plus</i> <abbr class="spell">OASDI</abbr> benefit for those reporting <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">OASDI</abbr> in the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> is $4,671 + $5,892 = $10,563. For those not reporting <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> (but known to have received it), reported <abbr class="spell">OASDI</abbr> is substantially larger ($7,382 versus $5,892), but the amount falls short of the combined <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> ($4,400) and <abbr class="spell">OASDI</abbr> ($5,431) averages ($9,831) from the administrative data. Given state supplementation, the combined <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> amount should exceed, not fall short of, this amount.</p>
|
|
<p>We have confirmed what was already well known—receipt of <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> is substantially underreported in the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>.<sup><a href="#mn9" id="mt9">9</a></sup> It is possible that some <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> respondents are confusing <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> with <abbr class="spell">OASDI</abbr>. It would be easy to do so because both programs are administered by <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> and individuals may apply for <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">OASDI</abbr> benefits at the same office. Both programs fall under the jurisdiction of <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> and may be easily confused. If such confusion does in fact exist, we should expect to see greater reported <abbr class="spell">OASDI</abbr> in the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> among known <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients who fail to report <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> than is the case for individuals who correctly report <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> receipt. We do find this to be true. However, such evidence is not definitive without additional control; it is possible that underreporting of <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> increases with the size of one's Social Security entitlement, and hence those failing to report <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> might be expected to have larger <abbr class="spell">OASDI</abbr> income. Nevertheless, we conclude that both underreporting and misreporting are present in the data.<sup><a href="#mn10" id="mt10">10</a></sup></p>
|
|
<p>Given the misreporting problem, our income adjustment is focused on the combined <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">OASDI</abbr> payment. Again, we distinguish between individuals with and without an <abbr class="spell">SER</abbr> match. For individuals without an <abbr class="spell">SER</abbr> match, we utilize the sum of <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">OASDI</abbr> amounts as reported in the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> and accept positive-reported <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> income as indeed indicating <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> receipt. For persons with an <abbr class="spell">SER</abbr> match, the following rules are applied to both our restrictive and inclusive calculations. In this case, we take <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> administrative data from the <abbr class="spell">PHUS</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">SSR</abbr> as truth and make adjustments only in instances in which state supplements are not included in these sources. If the person resides in a state with no universal state supplement or in which the state supplement is federally administered, we utilize the sum of the <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> amount reported in the <abbr class="spell">SSR</abbr> and the <abbr class="spell">OASDI</abbr> amount reported in the <abbr class="spell">PHUS</abbr>. If there is no <abbr class="spell">SSR</abbr> and/or <abbr class="spell">PHUS</abbr> match, <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> and/or <abbr class="spell">OASDI</abbr> are recorded as zero. By "universal" we mean a supplement paid to all or virtually all <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients. This adjustment applies to both the restrictive and inclusive calculations. If the person resides in a state with a universal <i>state</i>-administered <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> supplement, we again utilize the sum of the <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> amount reported in the <abbr class="spell">SSR</abbr> and the <abbr class="spell">OASDI</abbr> amount reported in the <abbr class="spell">PHUS</abbr>. To this we add an estimate of the state-administered supplement.<sup><a href="#mn11" id="mt11">11</a></sup> The restrictive and inclusive estimates differ only on the basis of the number of months out of the year in which the person receives assistance; among most persons with positive <abbr class="spell">SSR</abbr> <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> records, the amounts are identical. Detail on federally and state-administered <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> supplements and the imputation procedures we follow appear in <a href="#atB" id="arB">Appendix B</a>.</p>
|
|
<h3>The Outcome</h3>
|
|
<p>Table 5 presents the outcome of these income adjustments, differentiating observations by their <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">SER</abbr> match status and whether their earnings or <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">OASDI</abbr> totals were changed. The table has two panels, one incorporating the restrictive adjustments and the other incorporating the inclusive adjustments. To get a sense of the total impact, it is necessary to sum the individuals for whom total <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">OASDI</abbr> payments were adjusted (the totals for rows 1 and 3) with the individuals with earnings changes but no alteration in <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> plus <abbr class="spell">OASDI</abbr> income (the amounts in the two earnings alteration columns in row 2). Given restrictive adjustments, this is 8,815 + 12,865 + 32,745 + 45,404 = 99,829—46 percent of all persons in the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> and 61 percent of all <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">SER</abbr> matched observations. The inclusive calculation retains <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> values for earnings and <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">OASDI</abbr> benefits more frequently; in this case 31 percent of all persons in the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> and 41 percent of all <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">SER</abbr> matched observations have incomes adjusted. Clearly, under both approaches the incidence of alteration is high, but because these numbers count every adjustment, no matter how small, it is possible that they do not matter much.<sup><a href="#mn12" id="mt12">12</a></sup> The obvious question is whether the size and distribution of these adjustments have significant effect on our perception of poverty for the elderly and for individuals and families in general.</p>
|
|
<div class="table" id="table5">
|
|
<table>
|
|
<caption><span class="tableNumber">Table 5. </span>Incidence of <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>, <abbr class="spell">OASDI</abbr>, and earnings adjustment: 2002 <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/administrative matched estimates</caption>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:20em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="12" style="width:6em"></colgroup>
|
|
<thead>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stubHeading" rowspan="3" id="c1">Adjustment category</th>
|
|
<th class="spanner" colspan="2" rowspan="2" id="c2">No <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">SER</abbr> match <sup>a</sup></th>
|
|
<th class="spanner" colspan="2" rowspan="2" id="c3"><abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">SER</abbr> match, but no <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">DER</abbr> match <sup>a</sup></th>
|
|
<th class="spanner" colspan="6" id="c4"><abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> earnings adjustments</th>
|
|
<th class="spanner" colspan="2" rowspan="2" id="c5">Total </th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="spanner" colspan="2" id="c6" headers="c4"><abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> earnings total replaced with a lesser adjusted <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> earnings total </th>
|
|
<th class="spanner" colspan="2" id="c7" headers="c4"><abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> earnings total remained unchanged</th>
|
|
<th class="spanner" colspan="2" id="c8" headers="c4"><abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> earnings total replaced with a greater adjusted <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> earnings total</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th id="c9" headers="c2">Number</th>
|
|
<th id="c10" headers="c2">Percent</th>
|
|
<th id="c11" headers="c3">Number</th>
|
|
<th id="c12" headers="c3">Percent</th>
|
|
<th id="c13" headers="c4 c6">Number</th>
|
|
<th id="c14" headers="c4 c6">Percent</th>
|
|
<th id="c15" headers="c4 c7">Number</th>
|
|
<th id="c16" headers="c4 c7">Percent</th>
|
|
<th id="c17" headers="c4 c8">Number</th>
|
|
<th id="c18" headers="c4 c8">Percent</th>
|
|
<th id="c19" headers="c5">Number</th>
|
|
<th id="c20" headers="c5">Percent</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</thead>
|
|
<tbody>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td></td>
|
|
<th class="panel" colspan="12" id="r1">Restrictive income adjustment</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r2" headers="r1 c1"><abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> combined <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">OASDI</abbr> amount replaced with lesser combined administrative <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">OASDI</abbr> amount </th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 c2 c9">0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 c2 c10">0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 c3 c11">986</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 c3 c12">0.5</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 c4 c6 c13">697</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 c4 c6 c14">0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 c4 c7 c15">5,619</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 c4 c7 c16">2.6</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 c4 c8 c17">1,513</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 c4 c8 c18">0.7</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 c5 c19">8,815</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 c5 c20">4.1</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r3" headers="r1 c1"><abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> combined <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">OASDI</abbr> amount remained unchanged</th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r3 c2 c9">50,821</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r3 c2 c10">23.5</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r3 c3 c11">47,722</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r3 c3 c12">22.1</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r3 c4 c6 c13">32,745</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r3 c4 c6 c14">15.2</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r3 c4 c7 c15">17,488</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r3 c4 c7 c16">8.1</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r3 c4 c8 c17">45,404</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r3 c4 c8 c18">21.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r3 c5 c19">194,180</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r3 c5 c20">90.0</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r4" headers="r1 c1"><abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> combined <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">OASDI</abbr> amount replaced with greater combined administrative <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">OASDI</abbr> amount </th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r4 c2 c9">0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r4 c2 c10">0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r4 c3 c11">3,193</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r4 c3 c12">1.5</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r4 c4 c6 c13">950</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r4 c4 c6 c14">0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r4 c4 c7 c15">6,929</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r4 c4 c7 c16">3.2</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r4 c4 c8 c17">1,793</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r4 c4 c8 c18">0.8</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r4 c5 c19">12,865</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r4 c5 c20">6.0</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub2" id="r5" headers="r1 r4 c1">Total</th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r4 r5 c2 c9">50,821</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r4 r5 c2 c10">23.5</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r4 r5 c3 c11">51,901</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r4 r5 c3 c12">24.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r4 r5 c4 c6 c13">34,392</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r4 r5 c4 c6 c14">15.9</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r4 r5 c4 c7 c15">30,036</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r4 r5 c4 c7 c16">13.9</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r4 r5 c4 c8 c17">48,710</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r4 r5 c4 c8 c18">22.6</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r4 r5 c5 c19">215,860</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r4 r5 c5 c20">100.0</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td></td>
|
|
<th class="panel" colspan="12" id="r6">Inclusive income adjustment</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r7" headers="r6 c1"><abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> combined <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">OASDI</abbr> amount replaced with lesser combined administrative <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">OASDI</abbr> amount </th>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r7 c2 c9">0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r7 c2 c10">0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r7 c3 c11">986</td>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r7 c3 c12">0.5</td>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r7 c4 c6 c13">0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r7 c4 c6 c14">0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r7 c4 c7 c15">6,315</td>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r7 c4 c7 c16">2.9</td>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r7 c4 c8 c17">1,512</td>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r7 c4 c8 c18">0.7</td>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r7 c5 c19">8,813</td>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r7 c5 c20">4.1</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r8" headers="r6 c1"><abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> combined <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">OASDI</abbr> amount remained unchanged</th>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r8 c2 c9">50,821</td>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r8 c2 c10">23.5</td>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r8 c3 c11">47,722</td>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r8 c3 c12">22.1</td>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r8 c4 c6 c13">0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r8 c4 c6 c14">0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r8 c4 c7 c15">50,233</td>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r8 c4 c7 c16">23.3</td>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r8 c4 c8 c17">45,404</td>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r8 c4 c8 c18">21.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r8 c5 c19">194,180</td>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r8 c5 c20">90.0</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r9" headers="r6 c1"><abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> combined <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">OASDI</abbr> amount replaced with greater combined administrative <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">OASDI</abbr> amount </th>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r9 c2 c9">0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r9 c2 c10">0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r9 c3 c11">3,193</td>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r9 c3 c12">1.5</td>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r9 c4 c6 c13">0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r9 c4 c6 c14">0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r9 c4 c7 c15">7,880</td>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r9 c4 c7 c16">3.7</td>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r9 c4 c8 c17">1,794</td>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r9 c4 c8 c18">0.8</td>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r9 c5 c19">12,867</td>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r9 c5 c20">6.0</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub2" id="r10" headers="r6 r9 c1">Total</th>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r9 r10 c2 c9">50,821</td>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r9 r10 c2 c10">23.5</td>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r9 r10 c3 c11">51,901</td>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r9 r10 c3 c12">24.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r9 r10 c4 c6 c13">0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r9 r10 c4 c6 c14">0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r9 r10 c4 c7 c15">64,428</td>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r9 r10 c4 c7 c16">29.8</td>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r9 r10 c4 c8 c17">48,710</td>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r9 r10 c4 c8 c18">22.6</td>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r9 r10 c5 c19">215,860</td>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r9 r10 c5 c20">100.0</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tbody>
|
|
<tfoot>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="firstNote" colspan="13">SOURCE: Authors' calculations using 2003 <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">ASEC</abbr> data matched to administrative records.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="lastNote" colspan="13">a. <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> earnings totals applied.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tfoot>
|
|
</table>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<p>We now have two versions of the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">ASEC</abbr>. The first is the standard public-use sample, the basis for national poverty statistics such as those cited at the beginning of this article. The second is an adjusted data set, containing the same individuals, households, and families but with incomes adjusted using the procedures outlined above to incorporate, where available, information from administrative files. For each person we have two income figures, one computed using the restrictive adjustments and the other using the inclusive alternative. Because overall, 23.5 percent of the individuals were not matched to administrative data, the second version is an amalgam that contains many respondents for whom only survey data are available. To address this missing match problem, we have experimented with creating a third version based only on families and individuals for whom some administrative match exists.</p>
|
|
<h3>Adjusting for Unmatched Observations</h3>
|
|
<p>The absence of a <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">SER</abbr> match can be treated as a problem in unit nonresponse—as if failure to provide an <abbr class="spell">SSN</abbr> that could be matched to the <abbr class="spell">SER</abbr> is equivalent to refusing to cooperate with the survey at all (Lehtonen and Pahkinen 2004, 115). Adjustment of data for nonresponse then requires some specification of the circumstances that affect the likelihood of cooperation (Groves and Couper 1998). The simplest assumption is that such outcomes are a random phenomenon, and each sampling unit shares a common probability
|
|
<math display="inline">
|
|
<mi>θ</mi>
|
|
</math>
|
|
of responding. The response rate for the survey then provides an estimate
|
|
<math display="inline">
|
|
<mover accent="true">
|
|
<mi>θ</mi>
|
|
<mo>^</mo>
|
|
</mover>
|
|
</math>
|
|
of this common probability, and population totals for various features of interest could be obtained by multiplying the analysis weights for respondents by a nonresponse adjustment factor,
|
|
<math display="inline">
|
|
<mrow>
|
|
<mn>1</mn>
|
|
<mo>/</mo>
|
|
<mover accent="true">
|
|
<mi>θ</mi>
|
|
<mo>^</mo>
|
|
</mover>
|
|
</mrow>
|
|
</math>
|
|
. However, even the simplest tabulation (as in Table 1) indicates that the match rate is not independent of demographic characteristics. Hence without adjustment, the subset of observations for which match is achieved cannot be used to make inference about the <abbr>U.S.</abbr> population as a whole.</p>
|
|
<p>We address this problem by reweighting our matched sample in a manner that reflects the varying propensity across interview units to provide <abbr class="spell">SSN</abbr>s or the information required for <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> to find them. Both poverty and income distribution statistics are based on families and single individuals. Given that poverty assessment requires family income for persons living in families, it would be convenient if every individual in a family had a successful <abbr class="spell">SER</abbr> match. In practice, this is not the case. In the 2003 <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">ASEC</abbr>, nearly 66 percent of persons lived in families in which everyone was matched to the <abbr class="spell">SER</abbr> ("families" here include single individuals living alone or with unrelated persons), so slightly more than a third did not have a successful <abbr class="spell">SER</abbr> match (these are unweighted counts). However, only 14.2 percent of sample persons lived in families in which no one was matched. This presents a choice. We can focus on (a) those individuals who live in families in which someone in the family is matched, but not necessarily themselves; (b) those individuals who themselves are matched, but this is not necessarily true for all family members; or (c) those individuals who live in families in which everyone, including themselves, is matched. Unweighted sample counts for each alternative are presented in Table 6. Criterion (a) is obviously the least restrictive.</p>
|
|
<div class="table" id="table">
|
|
<table>
|
|
<caption><span class="tableNumber">Table 6. </span>Observation counts and match rates, by sample restriction criteria, 2003 <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">ASEC</abbr></caption>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:20em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="2" style="width:10em"></colgroup>
|
|
<thead>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stubHeading" scope="col">Match criterion</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Count</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Match rate (%)</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</thead>
|
|
<tbody>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">Person observations in original <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> sample</th>
|
|
<td>215,860</td>
|
|
<td>100.0</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">Person observations with at least one family member with matching <abbr class="spell">SER</abbr> record</th>
|
|
<td>185,284</td>
|
|
<td>85.8</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">Person observations with self matched with <abbr class="spell">SER</abbr> record</th>
|
|
<td>165,039</td>
|
|
<td>76.5</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">Person observations with all family members matched with <abbr class="spell">SER</abbr> records</th>
|
|
<td>141,937</td>
|
|
<td>65.8</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tbody>
|
|
<tfoot>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="onlyNote" colspan="3">SOURCE: Authors' calculations using 2003 <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">ASEC</abbr> data matched to administrative records.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tfoot>
|
|
</table>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<p>The difference between groups (a) and (b) is 20,245 persons for whom we have no <abbr class="spell">SER</abbr> match but who live in families with others for whom we do. About <span class="nobr">one-third</span> are children, and 31 percent are the "reference" persons at the top of the survey register for the household. The remainder are other adults, commonly the reference person's spouse. Given that children are unlikely to be contributing to income, and the remaining group of persons for whom we will be forced to rely on Census income is small, for our third <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>-based sample, we choose to work with group (a)—those individuals who live in families in which someone in the family is matched, but not necessarily themselves.<sup><a href="#mn13" id="mt13">13</a></sup></p>
|
|
<p>Given this subsample restriction, we next compute the parameters of a logistic regression for the log odds of being matched in this sense for each of the 215,860 persons in our sample, as shown in Table 1 (Folsom 1991; Iannacchione 1999). We estimate separate functions for persons in each of the three age groups; all three logits are reported in <a href="#atC" id="arC">Appendix C</a>. We use this function to calculate
|
|
<math display="inline">
|
|
<mrow>
|
|
<msub>
|
|
<mi>θ</mi>
|
|
<mi>i</mi>
|
|
</msub>
|
|
</mrow>
|
|
</math>
|
|
and an adjusted weight
|
|
<math display="inline">
|
|
<mrow>
|
|
<msub>
|
|
<mi>w</mi>
|
|
<mi>i</mi>
|
|
</msub>
|
|
<mo>/</mo>
|
|
<msub>
|
|
<mover accent="true">
|
|
<mi>θ</mi>
|
|
<mo>^</mo>
|
|
</mover>
|
|
<mi>i</mi>
|
|
</msub>
|
|
</mrow>
|
|
</math>
|
|
for each individual observation.</p>
|
|
<p>These calculations produce a third sample made up of unrelated individuals with an <abbr class="spell">SER</abbr> match and persons in families with at least one member with an <abbr class="spell">SER</abbr> match, each with a propensity-adjusted weight and both restrictive and inclusive income estimates.</p>
|
|
<h2>The Results: Absolute Poverty and the Prevalence of <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> Receipt</h2>
|
|
<p>We begin by examining the consequence of these income adjustments for estimated rates of poverty using the poverty thresholds applied in Census Bureau publications. As previously noted, for 2002 a single, nonelderly adult living alone was considered poor if his or her gross cash income after transfers but before taxes for the year fell below $9,359; for a family of four with two children, the reference amount was $18,244 (Proctor and Dalaker 2003, 4). The standard increases with family size and varies with composition. Elderly persons living alone or with spouses are assumed to require about 10 percent less income than nonelderly persons in the same circumstance.</p>
|
|
<h3>Prevalence of "Official" Poverty</h3>
|
|
<p>The results are shown in Table 7—which is divided between (1) results for the total <abbr>U.S</abbr>. population as covered by official poverty statistics, and (2) results for <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients, a subgroup of the total. For both groups we present results (a) as published by the Census Bureau, (b) based on our "intermediate" <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> data that include income adjustments for persons for whom an <abbr class="spell">SER</abbr> match was obtained, and (c) for our "final" reweighted matched sample that is restricted to persons living in families with at least one <abbr class="spell">SER</abbr> match. Within each estimate group, we present results for children ages <span class="nobr">0–17</span>, for adults aged <span class="nobr">18–64</span>, and for adults aged 65 or older.</p>
|
|
<div class="table" id="table7">
|
|
<table>
|
|
<caption><span class="tableNumber">Table 7. </span>Poverty rates across age and <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipient groups, 2002: Before and after income adjustment using administrative data</caption>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:6em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="6" style="width:10em"></colgroup>
|
|
<thead>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stubHeading" rowspan="2" id="c1">Age group</th>
|
|
<th rowspan="2" id="c2">Estimated population</th>
|
|
<th class="spanner" colspan="2" id="c3">Restrictive</th>
|
|
<th class="spanner" colspan="2" id="c4">Inclusive</th>
|
|
<th rowspan="2" id="c5">Number of person records</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th id="c6" headers="c3">Number living below poverty <sup>a</sup></th>
|
|
<th id="c7" headers="c3">Percent living below poverty</th>
|
|
<th id="c8" headers="c4">Number living below poverty</th>
|
|
<th id="c9" headers="c4">Percent living below poverty</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</thead>
|
|
<tbody>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td></td>
|
|
<th class="panel" colspan="6" id="r1">1(a): <abbr>U.S.</abbr> population; estimates based on unadjusted <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> income data <sup>b</sup></th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r2" headers="r1 c1"><span class="nobr">0–17</span></th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 c2">72,695,775</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 c3 c6">12,127,725</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 c3 c7">16.7</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 c4 c8">12,127,725</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 c4 c9">16.7</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 c5">66,016</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r3" headers="r1 c1"><span class="nobr">18–64</span></th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r3 c2">178,387,747</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r3 c3 c6">18,859,737</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r3 c3 c7">10.6</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r3 c4 c8">18,859,737</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r3 c4 c9">10.6</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r3 c5">129,460</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r4" headers="r1 c1">65 or older</th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r4 c2">34,233,824</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r4 c3 c6">3,576,169</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r4 c3 c7">10.4</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r4 c4 c8">3,576,169</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r4 c4 c9">10.4</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r4 c5">20,384</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r5" headers="r1 r4 c1">Total</th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r4 r5 c2">285,317,346</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r4 r5 c3 c6">34,563,631</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r4 r5 c3 c7">12.1</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r4 r5 c4 c8">34,563,631</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r4 r5 c4 c9">12.1</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r4 r5 c5">215,860</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td></td>
|
|
<th class="panel" colspan="6" id="r6">1(b): <abbr>U.S.</abbr> population; estimates based on adjusted <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> income data <sup>c</sup></th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r7" headers="r6 c1"><span class="nobr">0–17</span></th>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r7 c2">72,695,775</td>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r7 c3 c6">11,942,960</td>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r7 c3 c7">16.4</td>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r7 c4 c8">9,684,218</td>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r7 c4 c9">13.3</td>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r7 c5">66,016</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r8" headers="r6 c1"><span class="nobr">18–64</span></th>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r8 c2">178,387,747</td>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r8 c3 c6">18,702,806</td>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r8 c3 c7">10.5</td>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r8 c4 c8">15,030,345</td>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r8 c4 c9">8.4</td>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r8 c5">129,460</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r9" headers="r6 c1">65 or older</th>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r9 c2">34,233,824</td>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r9 c3 c6">3,111,542</td>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r9 c3 c7">9.1</td>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r9 c4 c8">3,043,279</td>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r9 c4 c9">8.9</td>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r9 c5">20,384</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r10" headers="r6 r9 c1">Total</th>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r9 r10 c2">285,317,346</td>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r9 r10 c3 c6">33,757,308</td>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r9 r10 c3 c7">11.8</td>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r9 r10 c4 c8">27,757,842</td>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r9 r10 c4 c9">9.7</td>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r9 r10 c5">215,860</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td></td>
|
|
<th class="panel" colspan="6" id="r11">1(c): <abbr>U.S.</abbr> population with income adjustment, sample restriction, and reweighting <sup>d</sup></th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r12" headers="r11 c1"><span class="nobr">0–17</span></th>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r12 c2">72,451,591</td>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r12 c3 c6">11,832,495</td>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r12 c3 c7">16.3</td>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r12 c4 c8">9,453,838</td>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r12 c4 c9">13.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r12 c5">62,682</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r13" headers="r11 c1"><span class="nobr">18–64</span></th>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r13 c2">172,660,884</td>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r13 c3 c6">18,192,264</td>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r13 c3 c7">10.5</td>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r13 c4 c8">13,616,602</td>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r13 c4 c9">7.9</td>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r13 c5">108,038</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r14" headers="r11 c1">65 or older</th>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r14 c2">33,001,207</td>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r14 c3 c6">2,768,217</td>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r14 c3 c7">8.4</td>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r14 c4 c8">2,677,064</td>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r14 c4 c9">8.1</td>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r14 c5">14,564</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r15" headers="r11 r14 c1">Total</th>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r14 r15 c2">278,113,682</td>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r14 r15 c3 c6">32,792,976</td>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r14 r15 c3 c7">11.8</td>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r14 r15 c4 c8">25,747,504</td>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r14 r15 c4 c9">9.3</td>
|
|
<td headers="r11 r14 r15 c5">185,284</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td></td>
|
|
<th class="panel" colspan="6" id="r16">2(a): <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipient population; estimates based on unadjusted <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> income data <sup>e</sup></th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r17" headers="r16 c1"><span class="nobr">0–17</span></th>
|
|
<td headers="r16 r17 c2">364,804</td>
|
|
<td headers="r16 r17 c3 c6">132,151</td>
|
|
<td headers="r16 r17 c3 c7">36.2</td>
|
|
<td headers="r16 r17 c4 c8">132,151</td>
|
|
<td headers="r16 r17 c4 c9">36.2</td>
|
|
<td headers="r16 r17 c5">323</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r18" headers="r16 c1"><span class="nobr">18–64</span></th>
|
|
<td headers="r16 r18 c2">3,595,948</td>
|
|
<td headers="r16 r18 c3 c6">1,577,196</td>
|
|
<td headers="r16 r18 c3 c7">43.9</td>
|
|
<td headers="r16 r18 c4 c8">1,577,196</td>
|
|
<td headers="r16 r18 c4 c9">43.9</td>
|
|
<td headers="r16 r18 c5">2,534</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r19" headers="r16 c1">65 or older</th>
|
|
<td headers="r16 r19 c2">1,192,268</td>
|
|
<td headers="r16 r19 c3 c6">572,868</td>
|
|
<td headers="r16 r19 c3 c7">48.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r16 r19 c4 c8">572,868</td>
|
|
<td headers="r16 r19 c4 c9">48.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r16 r19 c5">778</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r20" headers="r16 r19 c1">Total</th>
|
|
<td headers="r16 r19 r20 c2">5,153,020</td>
|
|
<td headers="r16 r19 r20 c3 c6">2,282,215</td>
|
|
<td headers="r16 r19 r20 c3 c7">44.3</td>
|
|
<td headers="r16 r19 r20 c4 c8">2,282,215</td>
|
|
<td headers="r16 r19 r20 c4 c9">44.3</td>
|
|
<td headers="r16 r19 r20 c5">3,635</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td></td>
|
|
<th class="panel" colspan="6" id="r21">2(b): <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipient population; estimates based on adjusted <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> income data <sup>f</sup></th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r22" headers="r21 c1"><span class="nobr">0–17</span></th>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r22 c2">830,116</td>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r22 c3 c6">219,764</td>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r22 c3 c7">26.5</td>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r22 c4 c8">181,242</td>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r22 c4 c9">21.8</td>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r22 c5">696</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r23" headers="r21 c1"><span class="nobr">18–64</span></th>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r23 c2">3,809,850</td>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r23 c3 c6">1,609,734</td>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r23 c3 c7">42.3</td>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r23 c4 c8">1,557,189</td>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r23 c4 c9">40.9</td>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r23 c5">2,604</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r24" headers="r21 c1">65 or older</th>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r24 c2">1,695,088</td>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r24 c3 c6">688,697</td>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r24 c3 c7">40.6</td>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r24 c4 c8">668,344</td>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r24 c4 c9">39.4</td>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r24 c5">1,081</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r25" headers="r21 r24 c1">Total</th>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r24 r25 c2">6,335,054</td>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r24 r25 c3 c6">2,518,195</td>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r24 r25 c3 c7">39.8</td>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r24 r25 c4 c8">2,406,775</td>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r24 r25 c4 c9">38.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r21 r24 r25 c5">4,381</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td></td>
|
|
<th class="panel" colspan="6" id="r26">2(c): <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipient population with income adjustment, sample restriction, and reweighting <sup>g</sup></th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r27" headers="r26 c1"><span class="nobr">0–17</span></th>
|
|
<td headers="r26 r27 c2">862,176</td>
|
|
<td headers="r26 r27 c3 c6">228,729</td>
|
|
<td headers="r26 r27 c3 c7">26.5</td>
|
|
<td headers="r26 r27 c4 c8">187,873</td>
|
|
<td headers="r26 r27 c4 c9">21.8</td>
|
|
<td headers="r26 r27 c5">680</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r28" headers="r26 c1"><span class="nobr">18–64</span></th>
|
|
<td headers="r26 r28 c2">3,880,146</td>
|
|
<td headers="r26 r28 c3 c6">1,729,553</td>
|
|
<td headers="r26 r28 c3 c7">44.6</td>
|
|
<td headers="r26 r28 c4 c8">1,666,596</td>
|
|
<td headers="r26 r28 c4 c9">43.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r26 r28 c5">2,121</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r29" headers="r26 c1">65 or older</th>
|
|
<td headers="r26 r29 c2">1,956,997</td>
|
|
<td headers="r26 r29 c3 c6">781,043</td>
|
|
<td headers="r26 r29 c3 c7">39.9</td>
|
|
<td headers="r26 r29 c4 c8">754,997</td>
|
|
<td headers="r26 r29 c4 c9">38.6</td>
|
|
<td headers="r26 r29 c5">906</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r30" headers="r26 r29 c1">Total</th>
|
|
<td headers="r26 r29 r30 c2">6,699,319</td>
|
|
<td headers="r26 r29 r30 c3 c6">2,739,325</td>
|
|
<td headers="r26 r29 r30 c3 c7">40.9</td>
|
|
<td headers="r26 r29 r30 c4 c8">2,609,466</td>
|
|
<td headers="r26 r29 r30 c4 c9">39.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r26 r29 r30 c5">3,707</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tbody>
|
|
<tfoot>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="firstNote" colspan="7">SOURCE: Authors' calculations using 2003 <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">ASEC</abbr> data matched to administrative records.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="note" colspan="7">a. Persons are identified as "poor" if their <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> total family unadjusted income record is less than their corresponding <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> family poverty threshold record. Family income records may include top-coded components. These totals differ slightly from official reports, which are based on actual reported income without top-coding. </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="note" colspan="7">b. Figures have been generated from the entire 2003 <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">ASEC</abbr> sample of 215,860 persons used by the Census Bureau to estimate official poverty rates. Income and weight records are unadjusted.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="note" colspan="7">c. Income adjustments were made using administrative data on earnings, <abbr class="spell">OASDI</abbr>, and <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> receipt, following decision rules presented in the text. <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> weights are unadjusted.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="note" colspan="7">d. Estimates were derived from a reduced 2003 <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">ASEC</abbr> poverty sample of 185,284 persons who had at least one family member with matching <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">SER</abbr> records. Figures are based on the adjustment of <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> income records using administrative data, following "sample restriction" decision rules presented in the text. Weights have been adjusted by propensity estimates derived from a regression model involving person-level records (based on <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">SER</abbr> family); see the text and <a href="#atB">Appendix B</a>.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="note" colspan="7">e. Persons are identified as <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients if they have a positive <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> record. Income and weight records are unadjusted.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="note" colspan="7">f. Income adjustments were made using administrative data on earnings, <abbr class="spell">OASDI</abbr>, and <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> receipt, following decision rules presented in the text. <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> status is based on adjusted data. Weights are unadjusted.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="lastNote" colspan="7">g. Estimates were derived from a reduced 2003 <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">ASEC</abbr> poverty sample of 185,284 persons who had at least one family member with matching <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">SER</abbr> records. Figures are based on the adjustment of <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> income records using administrative data, following "sample restriction" decision rules presented in the text. Weights have been adjusted by propensity estimates derived from a regression model involving person-level records (based on <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">SER</abbr> family); see the text and <a href="#atB">Appendix B</a>. Persons are identified as <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients if they have a positive <abbr class="spell">SSR</abbr> <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> record. </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tfoot>
|
|
</table>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<p>Tabulations 1(a) and 2(a) are based on the same <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> data (n = 215,860) used by the Census Bureau to generate official poverty estimates. (Our estimates differ very slightly from figures published by the Census Bureau because it uses data without top codes, and we use the public-use sample, which is top-coded.) The official measures appear for reference at the top of the columns for both the restrictive and inclusive computations. We are particularly interested in poverty rates for the elderly and among <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients. In the national data, the poverty rates for working-age and elderly populations are 10.6 percent and 10.4 percent, respectively. As anticipated, poverty rates for persons in all age groups that are identified as <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients are much higher than rates estimated for the age groups as a whole.</p>
|
|
<p>Tabulations 1(b) and 2(b) report the results of applying only our restrictive and inclusive income-adjustment protocols. The entire <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> sample is retained (n = 215,860), and <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> data are used for all persons for whom a <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">SER</abbr> match was not achieved, so the total sample size does not change from that recorded for the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>. Looking first at the data for all persons, the effect of incorporating administrative data is sensitive to the assumption set. The restrictive adjustment decreases the estimated aggregate poverty rate from 12.1 percent to 11.8 percent; the estimated rates for all three groups decline, with the greatest change for the elderly. The inclusive adjustment produces a much larger reduction in poverty rates for all groups, most notably for the nonelderly. Both adjustments produce lower <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> poverty rates. The effect is most dramatic for persons aged 17 or younger. Under the restrictive procedure, the poverty rate for the elderly is 40.6 percent, over 7 percentage-points lower than the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> estimate. Using our inclusive income adjustment procedure, the estimate is 39.4 percent, 8.6 percentage-points lower than the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> estimate. The unweighted <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipient count (the number of "person records" in the last column of the table) goes up by over a fifth, from 3,635 to 4,381 when administrative data are employed. This is another manifestation of underreporting of <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> in the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>.</p>
|
|
<p>Tabulations 1(c) and 2(c) illustrate the results of applying our adjustment conventions, restricting the sample to persons living in families with at least one member with matching individual <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">SER</abbr> records (n = 185,284) and reweighting the observations using propensity scores. <a href="#atC">Appendix C</a> reports the parameter estimates for the logistic functions used to reweight the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> person weights of the noted 185,284 member restricted person sample. The aggregate outcome (in 1(c)) is a modest additional decrease in estimated aggregate poverty rates under the restrictive convention when compared with estimates based only on adjusting data for respondents who could be matched to <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> records. When the inclusive procedure is employed, the outcome is similar—estimated poverty rates decline further. For <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients, the effect is a bit more varied, with child and nonelderly adult <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> poverty estimates slightly higher and elderly rates slightly lower than those estimated without sample restriction and reweighting.</p>
|
|
<p>What drives the difference between the restrictive and inclusive estimates? A review of the details in <a href="#atA">Appendix A</a> indicates that the most significant difference between the two alternative calculations is that for earnings and self-employment income, the restrictive calculations rely on the <abbr class="spell">DER</abbr>, that is, earnings reported by employers. The inclusive alternative takes <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> reports when the amounts reported in the survey exceed what appears in administrative data. Because the inclusive procedure generally follows a "greater of <abbr class="spell">DER</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>" rule, the amounts there will be larger; the results indicate the difference is quite significant. For the elderly, earnings are less important (although they count because poverty is estimated on the basis of total family income, not just the income of the elderly themselves). What makes the difference is correction for <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> underreporting. Aside from imputations for state-administered <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> supplements, the same correction is applied in both the restrictive and inclusive procedures because <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> knows what people receive and the consequence in both cases is an <span class="nobr">8–9</span> percentage-point reduction in estimated poverty, particularly among <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> elderly recipients.</p>
|
|
<h3><abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> Population Estimates</h3>
|
|
<p>In "The Merge" section of this article, we established the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> undercount of <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients by looking at the actual prevalence of <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> receipt for adults (aged 18 or older) in <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> households who were successfully matched with administrative data and comparing this number to what was actually reported to Census Bureau interviewers (see Table 4). The <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> is designed to provide estimates of the total numbers of households, families, and persons with various attributes. Thus the undercount could also be investigated by comparing the number of <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients estimated from the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> sample with total recipients recorded by <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr>. This could presumably be done with both the original and the adjusted <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> data.</p>
|
|
<p>But just what is meant by "total recipients" poses yet another problem. Normally caseload data are reported for a point in time. For example, <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> regularly publishes case counts by age group in December (see, for example, <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> (2007), Table 3). However, the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">ASEC</abbr> asks for <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> payments received in the preceding year. Thus, in principle the <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipient count derived from the 2003 <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">ASEC</abbr> is an estimate of the total number of people who received <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> at any time during calendar 2002. This "ever-on" number should be larger than the largest monthly caseload during the year.</p>
|
|
<p>There are nuances. Persons who receive <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> in 2003 but die before experiencing the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> interview are uncounted. Age in the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> is reported as of the time of the interview, so age categorization only approximates what would be obtained by considering, for example, age at some point in 2002. Any comparison between caseload projection from the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> and administrative data should also be adjusted for the fact that the <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> caseload includes persons living in institutions who are not included in the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>.</p>
|
|
<p>Despite these complications, it is important to gauge <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> coverage by estimating just how many <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients should have been captured by the survey. To do this, we use a 1 percent sample of monthly <abbr class="spell">SSR</abbr> <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipient records to count the number of persons who received <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> at any time during calendar 2002, and we compare these counts with the recipient population estimated from the various <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> samples we used during our study.<sup><a href="#mn14" id="mt14">14</a></sup> The results by age group appear in Table 8. Columns 1, 2, and 3 show the <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> population estimates generated from our "baseline," "intermediate," and "final" <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> samples, respectively. More specifically, the first column of data (our baseline estimates) are straight from the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> and indicate the sum of sample weights for persons for whom the unadjusted 2003 <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">ASEC</abbr> reports receipt of <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> in 2002. The second column shows intermediate estimates generated from the same <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> sample used for official poverty estimates, but matched to administrative sources and involving adjustment to only <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> income records. The third column gives our final estimates of the number of recipients calculated on the basis of our restricted <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/administrative-matched sample with <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> income and weight adjustments.</p>
|
|
<div class="table" id="table8">
|
|
<table>
|
|
<caption><span class="tableNumber">Table 8. </span>Estimated <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> population compared with administrative count (with Medicaid institution adjustment), 2002</caption>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:10em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="6" style="width:10em"></colgroup>
|
|
<thead>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stubHeading" rowspan="3" id="c1">Age group (at time of 2003 <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">ASEC</abbr>)</th>
|
|
<th class="spanner" colspan="3" id="c2">Total 2002 <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients estimated from identified <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> samples</th>
|
|
<th rowspan="2" id="c3">Average monthly recipient caseload in 2002 from administrative data</th>
|
|
<th rowspan="2" id="c4">Total 2002 <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients in 2003 <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">ASEC</abbr> universe, estimated from administrative data <sup>a</sup></th>
|
|
<th rowspan="2" id="c5">Ratio, <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> restricted/reweighted sample population estimate to administrative recipient count</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th id="c6" headers="c2">2003 <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">ASEC</abbr></th>
|
|
<th id="c7" headers="c2"><abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">ASEC</abbr> using adjusted income data</th>
|
|
<th id="c8" headers="c2"><abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">ASEC</abbr> using restricted/reweighted sample and adjusted income data</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th id="c9" headers="c2 c6">(1)</th>
|
|
<th id="c10" headers="c2 c7">(2)</th>
|
|
<th id="c11" headers="c2 c8">(3)</th>
|
|
<th id="c12" headers="c3">(4)</th>
|
|
<th id="c13" headers="c4">(5)</th>
|
|
<th id="c14" headers="c5">(6)</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</thead>
|
|
<tbody>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r1" headers="c1"><span class="nobr">0–17</span></th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 c2 c6 c9">364,804</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 c2 c7 c10">830,116</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 c2 c8 c11">862,176</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 c3 c12">897,771</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 c4 c13">1,024,500</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 c5 c14">0.842</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r2" headers="c1"><span class="nobr">18–64</span></th>
|
|
<td headers="r2 c2 c6 c9">3,595,948</td>
|
|
<td headers="r2 c2 c7 c10">3,809,850</td>
|
|
<td headers="r2 c2 c8 c11">3,880,146</td>
|
|
<td headers="r2 c3 c12">3,862,587</td>
|
|
<td headers="r2 c4 c13">4,308,000</td>
|
|
<td headers="r2 c5 c14">0.901</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r3" headers="c1">65 or older</th>
|
|
<td headers="r3 c2 c6 c9">1,192,268</td>
|
|
<td headers="r3 c2 c7 c10">1,695,088</td>
|
|
<td headers="r3 c2 c8 c11">1,956,997</td>
|
|
<td headers="r3 c3 c12">1,998,249</td>
|
|
<td headers="r3 c4 c13">2,064,200</td>
|
|
<td headers="r3 c5 c14">0.948</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r4" headers="r3 c1">Total</th>
|
|
<td headers="r3 r4 c2 c6 c9">5,153,020</td>
|
|
<td headers="r3 r4 c2 c7 c10">6,335,054</td>
|
|
<td headers="r3 r4 c2 c8 c11">6,699,319</td>
|
|
<td headers="r3 r4 c3 c12">6,758,608</td>
|
|
<td headers="r3 r4 c4 c13">7,396,700</td>
|
|
<td headers="r3 r4 c5 c14">0.906</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tbody>
|
|
<tfoot>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="firstNote" colspan="7">SOURCE: Authors' calculations using 2003 <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">ASEC</abbr> data and the Social Security 1 percent <abbr class="spell">SSR</abbr> beneficiary sample. <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> income reports are adjusted using administrative data. See the text.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="lastNote" colspan="7">a. See the text and Table 6. This is the estimated number of persons ever receiving <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> in 2002 who were alive and in the indicated age group at the time of the 2003 <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">ASEC</abbr> survey. This estimate is reduced by the number of persons in communal facilities or by those who are homeless. </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tfoot>
|
|
</table>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<p>Administrative counts are given in columns 4 and 5. Column 4 notes the average monthly <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> caseload for 2002. Column 5 shows our 1 percent <abbr class="spell">SSR</abbr> sample estimate of the number of persons, in the "universe" sampled by the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>, who had income from <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> in 2002. That column also shows our "target count" because it indicates <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr>'s record of the number of persons, by age category, on March 15, 2003 (roughly the midpoint of the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">ASEC</abbr> field interviews), who should have reported receiving <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> at some time in 2002. Estimates in column 5 exclude (obviously) persons deceased by March 15 and persons who were, in December 2002, residents in Medicaid institutions. The estimate is <span class="nobr">1–2</span> percentage-points higher than the estimate indicated by the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> because it includes homeless persons. The only estimate we have found for the point-in-time prevalence of homelessness among <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients is <span class="nobr">55,000–70,000</span> in 2002, or about 1.1 percent of the average monthly adult caseload in that year.<sup><a href="#mn15" id="mt15">15</a></sup> (Child <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients are unlikely to be homeless.) Note that our estimate of recipients "ever on" during the year and alive for the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> interview exceeds the average monthly caseload by almost 10 percent.</p>
|
|
<h3>Administrative Data Help</h3>
|
|
<p>In Table 8, the ratio of columns 1 and 5 values (not shown) reflect the incidence of <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> underreporting before adjustment. The overall <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> underreporting rate, before adjustment, was 30 percent, and the underreporting rates for children, the working-aged, and elderly recipients were 64 percent, 17 percent, and 42 percent, respectively. Even with the allowance for exclusion of the homeless from the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>, it is clear that without incorporation of administrative data, the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> is not a reliable source of <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> child and adult recipient counts.</p>
|
|
<p>The last column in Table 8 gives the ratio of our <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>-based "best estimates" of our final <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipient estimate (column 3) compared with the total derived from administrative data (column 5). These figures reveal the effectiveness of our <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> income and weight adjustments and indicate that our <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> adjustments reduced the overall <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> underreporting rate from 30 percent to 9 percent. For the elderly, these adjustments reduced their <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> underreporting rate from 42 percent to 5 percent. Our final <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> estimates are not equal to the "target counts" estimated from the 1 percent <abbr class="spell">SSR</abbr> sample, but are closer than the expected number of <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients captured by our baseline or intermediate samples. The low <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> underreporting rates associated with our final sample reaffirms the use of our <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> income and weight adjustments.</p>
|
|
<p>Five conclusions are drawn from our analysis to this point:</p>
|
|
<ol>
|
|
<li>More thought needs to be given to the advisability of and procedures for integrating administrative and survey data. The disparity between administrative and survey reports and the apparent correlation of this disparity with income levels presents serious difficulties.</li>
|
|
<li>We think truth lies somewhere between our restrictive and inclusive estimates. Because both procedures produce lower estimated poverty estimates, the implication is that income is underreported in the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>, with the consequence that official poverty rates are exaggerated.</li>
|
|
<li><abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> receipt is underreported in the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>—most substantially for children, and least for working-age adults.</li>
|
|
<li>Adjustment with administrative data reduces estimated elderly poverty rates. More specifically, our final estimates suggest that from <span class="nobr">38.6–39.9 percent</span> of elderly <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients were poor in 2002.</li>
|
|
<li>Judged on the basis of comparing sample-based recipient counts to administrative data, the propensity-adjusted <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> sample offers a more reliable basis for inference about the prevalence of <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> receipt than either the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> alone or the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> partially adjusted with administrative income data.</li>
|
|
</ol>
|
|
<h2>Relative Poverty</h2>
|
|
<p>In recent years the Census Bureau (2007) has conducted extensive studies on what effect alternative poverty standards and measures of resources have on poverty assessment. In general this work, while acknowledging the problem of underreporting, does not incorporate adjustments for it (Weinberg 2005). Our study utilizes only what the Census Bureau terms "money income." More refined measures subtract taxes, add capital gains and estimates of the value of various benefits, include food stamps and rent subsidies, and include in the most ambitious "disposable income" measure—imputed rental income for homeowners (Census Bureau 2007, 2). The effect on the estimated poverty rate of refining the income measure is similar in magnitude to the effect we discover for adjusting for underreporting. In 2002, use of the most inclusive measure of income drops the estimated aggregate poverty rates from 12.1 percent to 9.3 percent if imputed rental income of homeowners is not included and 8.6 percent if it is (Dalaker 2005, 7). As might be anticipated, the effect of considering homeownership is greatest for the elderly. These adjustments require a number of imputations that cannot be replicated without detailed information on Census Bureau procedures. This matter is addressed in our concluding remarks.</p>
|
|
<p>It is common internationally to assess poverty not on the basis of an absolute benchmark like the official U.S. measure, but in relation to the distribution of income within society. In this section, we consider the consequences of the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> adjustments we have introduced for inferences about the distribution of income and the position of <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients within it.</p>
|
|
<h3>The Equivalence Scale</h3>
|
|
<p>To investigate the poverty status of <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients across a variety of family types, we must have an equivalence scale that makes explicit our assumption about the amount of income that makes the standard of living for a person in one family size (for example, a person living alone) equal to that of a person in a family differently composed (for example, two adults and a child). For these calculations we follow the precedent of the Census Bureau's alternative poverty estimates (Dalaker 2005; Census Bureau 2007) and adopt the three-parameter equivalence scale suggested by a recent National Research Council (<abbr class="spell">NRC</abbr>) review of recommendations for poverty standard reform (Iceland 2005). This is the same scale used by Koenig and Rupp (2004) in their analysis of the sensitivity of estimated poverty rates for <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients to alternative ways of measuring poverty.</p>
|
|
<p>Under the three-parameter equivalence scale, to achieve an equivalent standard of living, for every $1 of income for a single individual, a childless couple would require $1.41; single-parent families would need $(A + α + P * <span class="nobr">(C–1))<sup>F</sup>;</span> and all other families would require $(A + P * C)<sup>F</sup>, where A is the number of adults in a family and C is the number of children. Following the <abbr class="spell">NRC</abbr>'s poverty reform recommendations and the Census Bureau, we assume that α = 0.8, P = 0.5, and F = 0.7. The parameter P indicates how children are to be weighted relative to adults: P = 5 means that each child beyond the first one requires half the income needed for adults. The parameter α allows the first child in a single-parent family to be weighted differently from others. F reflects economies of scale; a value of 1.0 would mean that expenses go up proportionately with effective size. The assumed value of 0.7 indicates that a doubling (100 percent) increase in effective family size would increase the cost of sustaining a given standard of living by 70 percent. Inserting the appropriate numbers for a single parent with two children produces an equivalence adjustment of $(1 +0.8 +0.5)<sup>7</sup> = $1.79. For every $1 of income for a single individual, achieving an equivalent standard of living for a single adult with two children would require using the <abbr class="spell">NRC</abbr> equivalence scale—$1.79.</p>
|
|
<p>For the differential between single adults and childless couples, this scale follows the "square root" convention that living costs go up with the square root of family size, which is common in European analysis of income distribution (Förster and Mira d'Ercole 2005). We shall term this four-part system the <abbr class="spell">NRC</abbr> equivalence scale. Note that unlike the official poverty standard, the <abbr class="spell">NRC</abbr> scale does not differentiate among families on the basis of age. Also, like the official standard, the <abbr class="spell">NRC</abbr> scale is not affected by the presence of disabilities (as is the case for all nonelderly <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients), even when offsetting the consequences of a disability is expensive (Zaidi and Burchardt 2005).</p>
|
|
<h3>The Results</h3>
|
|
<p>Income distribution estimates are presented in Table 9. Again, we present three versions based on our baseline, intermediate, and final <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>-related data sets previously discussed and labeled (a), (b), and (c) in Table 7. In Table 9, we do this in the first panel under the restrictive income adjustment procedure and in the second panel for the higher inclusive alternative. For each set, the line marked "upper bound" shows the income level that demarks the percentile of the income distribution identified by the column header. Thus for the unadjusted <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> data (a), median personal income is $25,712. In the column adjacent to the top decile of the distribution, we report half the median and the proportion of the population with incomes (adjusted for family composition using the <abbr class="spell">NRC</abbr> equivalence scale) less than half this amount. Thus unadjusted <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> data for 2002 indicate that 22 percent of the population would have been counted as poor because their incomes fell below half the equivalence-adjusted median, one of the standards typically applied in Europe.<sup><a href="#mn16" id="mt16">16</a></sup></p>
|
|
<div class="table" id="table9">
|
|
<table>
|
|
<caption><span class="tableNumber">Table 9. </span>The effect of merging <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> and administrative data on the estimated national income distribution, 2002</caption>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:10em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="8" style="width:5em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="2" style="width:7em"></colgroup>
|
|
<thead>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stubHeading" rowspan="2" id="c1">General income distribution</th>
|
|
<th class="spanner" colspan="9" id="c2">Percentiles</th>
|
|
<th rowspan="2" id="c3">Number of person records</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th id="c4" headers="c2">10</th>
|
|
<th id="c5" headers="c2">20</th>
|
|
<th id="c6" headers="c2">40</th>
|
|
<th id="c7" headers="c2">50</th>
|
|
<th id="c8" headers="c2">60</th>
|
|
<th id="c9" headers="c2">80</th>
|
|
<th id="c10" headers="c2">90</th>
|
|
<th id="c11" headers="c2">Top decile</th>
|
|
<th id="c12" headers="c2">50 percent of the median</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</thead>
|
|
<tbody>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td></td>
|
|
<th class="panelWithSub" colspan="10" id="r1">Restrictive 2002 <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/administrative matched data set—</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td></td>
|
|
<th class="subWithPanel" colspan="10" id="r2" headers="r1">(a): using unadjusted income percentiles for all people and the <abbr class="spell">NRC</abbr> equivalence scale (unadjusted weights) <sup>a</sup></th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r3" headers="r1 r2 c1">Upper bound ($)</th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r3 c2 c4">7,462</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r3 c2 c5">12,000</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r3 c2 c6">20,862</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r3 c2 c7">25,712</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r3 c2 c8">31,350</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r3 c2 c9">47,696</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r3 c2 c10">64,793</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r3 c2 c11">. . . </td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r3 c2 c12">12,856</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r3 c3">215,860</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r4" headers="r1 r2 c1">Distribution (%)</th>
|
|
<td colspan="10"></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r5" headers="r1 r2 r4 c1">All people</th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 r5 c2 c4">10.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 r5 c2 c5">10.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 r5 c2 c6">20.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 r5 c2 c7">10.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 r5 c2 c8">10.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 r5 c2 c9">20.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 r5 c2 c10">10.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 r5 c2 c11">10.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 r5 c2 c12">22.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 r5 c3">215,860</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r6" headers="r1 r2 r4 c1">Elderly <sup>b</sup></th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 r6 c2 c4">7.8</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 r6 c2 c5">16.1</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 r6 c2 c6">29.1</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 r6 c2 c7">11.9</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 r6 c2 c8">9.2</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 r6 c2 c9">13.3</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 r6 c2 c10">6.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 r6 c2 c11">6.7</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 r6 c2 c12">27.5</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 r6 c3">20,384</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r7" headers="r1 r2 r4 c1">Elderly <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> <sup>c</sup></th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 r7 c2 c4">32.9</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 r7 c2 c5">39.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 r7 c2 c6">14.8</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 r7 c2 c7">5.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 r7 c2 c8">3.6</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 r7 c2 c9">2.9</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 r7 c2 c10">1.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 r7 c2 c11">0.8</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 r7 c2 c12">75.1</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 r7 c3">778</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td></td>
|
|
<th class="subpanel" colspan="10" id="r8" headers="r1">(b): using adjusted income percentiles for all people and the <abbr class="spell">NRC</abbr> equivalence scale (unadjusted weights) <sup>d</sup></th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r9" headers="r1 r8 c1">Upper bound ($)</th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r8 r9 c2 c4">7,579</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r8 r9 c2 c5">12,134</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r8 r9 c2 c6">20,856</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r8 r9 c2 c7">25,662</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r8 r9 c2 c8">31,284</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r8 r9 c2 c9">48,302</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r8 r9 c2 c10">66,451</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r8 r9 c2 c11">. . .</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r8 r9 c2 c12">12,831</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r8 r9 c3">215,860</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r10" headers="r1 r8 c1">Distribution (%)</th>
|
|
<td colspan="10"></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r11" headers="r1 r8 r10 c1">All people</th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r8 r10 r11 c2 c4">10.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r8 r10 r11 c2 c5">10.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r8 r10 r11 c2 c6">20.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r8 r10 r11 c2 c7">10.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r8 r10 r11 c2 c8">10.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r8 r10 r11 c2 c9">20.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r8 r10 r11 c2 c10">10.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r8 r10 r11 c2 c11">10.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r8 r10 r11 c2 c12">21.7</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r8 r10 r11 c3">215,860</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r12" headers="r1 r8 r10 c1">Elderly</th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r8 r10 r12 c2 c4">7.2</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r8 r10 r12 c2 c5">15.2</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r8 r10 r12 c2 c6">29.1</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r8 r10 r12 c2 c7">12.2</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r8 r10 r12 c2 c8">9.7</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r8 r10 r12 c2 c9">14.1</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r8 r10 r12 c2 c10">6.1</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r8 r10 r12 c2 c11">6.4</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r8 r10 r12 c2 c12">25.2</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r8 r10 r12 c3">20,384</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r13" headers="r1 r8 r10 c1">Elderly <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> <sup>e</sup></th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r8 r10 r13 c2 c4">35.4</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r8 r10 r13 c2 c5">33.4</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r8 r10 r13 c2 c6">12.4</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r8 r10 r13 c2 c7">5.6</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r8 r10 r13 c2 c8">5.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r8 r10 r13 c2 c9">5.7</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r8 r10 r13 c2 c10">1.2</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r8 r10 r13 c2 c11">1.4</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r8 r10 r13 c2 c12">70.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r8 r10 r13 c3">1,081</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td></td>
|
|
<th class="subpanel" colspan="10" id="r14" headers="r1">(c): using adjusted income percentiles for all people and the <abbr class="spell">NRC</abbr> equivalence scale (adjusted weights) <sup>f</sup></th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r15" headers="r1 r14 c1">Upper bound ($)</th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r14 r15 c2 c4">7,624</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r14 r15 c2 c5">12,109</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r14 r15 c2 c6">20,726</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r14 r15 c2 c7">25,527</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r14 r15 c2 c8">31,086</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r14 r15 c2 c9">47,903</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r14 r15 c2 c10">66,343</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r14 r15 c2 c11">. . .</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r14 r15 c2 c12">12,764</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r14 r15 c3">185,284</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r16" headers="r1 r14 c1">Distribution (%)</th>
|
|
<td colspan="10"></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r17" headers="r1 r14 r16 c1">All people</th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r14 r16 r17 c2 c4">10.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r14 r16 r17 c2 c5">10.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r14 r16 r17 c2 c6">20.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r14 r16 r17 c2 c7">10.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r14 r16 r17 c2 c8">10.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r14 r16 r17 c2 c9">20.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r14 r16 r17 c2 c10">10.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r14 r16 r17 c2 c11">10.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r14 r16 r17 c2 c12">21.6</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r14 r16 r17 c3">185,284</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r18" headers="r1 r14 r16 c1">Elderly <sup>b</sup></th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r14 r16 r18 c2 c4">6.8</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r14 r16 r18 c2 c5">14.9</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r14 r16 r18 c2 c6">28.5</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r14 r16 r18 c2 c7">12.2</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r14 r16 r18 c2 c8">10.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r14 r16 r18 c2 c9">14.9</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r14 r16 r18 c2 c10">6.4</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r14 r16 r18 c2 c11">6.4</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r14 r16 r18 c2 c12">24.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r14 r16 r18 c3">14,564</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r19" headers="r1 r14 r16 c1">Elderly <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> <sup>c</sup></th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r14 r16 r19 c2 c4">35.2</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r14 r16 r19 c2 c5">34.2</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r14 r16 r19 c2 c6">11.5</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r14 r16 r19 c2 c7">5.8</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r14 r16 r19 c2 c8">4.8</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r14 r16 r19 c2 c9">5.7</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r14 r16 r19 c2 c10">1.4</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r14 r16 r19 c2 c11">1.5</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r14 r16 r19 c2 c12">70.7</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r14 r16 r19 c3">906</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td></td>
|
|
<th class="panelWithSub" colspan="10" id="r20">Inclusive 2002 <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/administrative matched data set—</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td></td>
|
|
<th class="subWithPanel" colspan="10" id="r21" headers="r20">(a): using unadjusted income percentiles for all people and the <abbr class="spell">NRC</abbr> equivalence scale (unadjusted weights) <sup>a</sup></th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r22" headers="r20 r21 c1">Upper bound ($)</th>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r21 r22 c2 c4">7,462</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r21 r22 c2 c5">12,000</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r21 r22 c2 c6">20,862</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r21 r22 c2 c7">25,712</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r21 r22 c2 c8">31,350</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r21 r22 c2 c9">47,696</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r21 r22 c2 c10">64,793</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r21 r22 c2 c11">. . .</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r21 r22 c2 c12">12,856</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r21 r22 c3">215,860</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r23" headers="r20 r21 c1">Distribution (%)</th>
|
|
<td colspan="10"></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r24" headers="r20 r21 r23 c1">All people</th>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r21 r23 r24 c2 c4">10.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r21 r23 r24 c2 c5">10.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r21 r23 r24 c2 c6">20.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r21 r23 r24 c2 c7">10.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r21 r23 r24 c2 c8">10.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r21 r23 r24 c2 c9">20.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r21 r23 r24 c2 c10">10.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r21 r23 r24 c2 c11">10.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r21 r23 r24 c2 c12">22.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r21 r23 r24 c3">215,860</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r25" headers="r20 r21 r23 c1">Elderly <sup>b</sup></th>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r21 r23 r25 c2 c4">7.8</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r21 r23 r25 c2 c5">16.1</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r21 r23 r25 c2 c6">29.1</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r21 r23 r25 c2 c7">11.9</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r21 r23 r25 c2 c8">9.2</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r21 r23 r25 c2 c9">13.3</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r21 r23 r25 c2 c10">6.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r21 r23 r25 c2 c11">6.7</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r21 r23 r25 c2 c12">27.5</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r21 r23 r25 c3">20,384</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r26" headers="r20 r21 r23 c1">Elderly <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> <sup>c</sup></th>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r21 r23 r26 c2 c4">32.9</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r21 r23 r26 c2 c5">39.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r21 r23 r26 c2 c6">14.8</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r21 r23 r26 c2 c7">5.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r21 r23 r26 c2 c8">3.6</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r21 r23 r26 c2 c9">2.9</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r21 r23 r26 c2 c10">1.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r21 r23 r26 c2 c11">0.8</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r21 r23 r26 c2 c12">75.1</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r21 r23 r26 c3">778</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td></td>
|
|
<th class="subpanel" colspan="10" id="r27" headers="r20">(b): using adjusted income percentiles for all people and the <abbr class="spell">NRC</abbr> equivalence scale (unadjusted weights) <sup>d</sup></th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r28" headers="r20 r27 c1">Upper bound ($)</th>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r27 r28 c2 c4">8,708</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r27 r28 c2 c5">13,585</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r27 r28 c2 c6">23,095</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r27 r28 c2 c7">28,325</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r27 r28 c2 c8">34,441</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r27 r28 c2 c9">52,321</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r27 r28 c2 c10">72,435</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r27 r28 c2 c11">. . .</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r27 r28 c2 c12">14,163</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r27 r28 c3">215,860</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r29" headers="r20 r27 c1">Distribution (%)</th>
|
|
<td colspan="10"></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r30" headers="r20 r27 r29 c1">All people</th>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r27 r29 r30 c2 c4">10.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r27 r29 r30 c2 c5">10.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r27 r29 r30 c2 c6">20.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r27 r29 r30 c2 c7">10.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r27 r29 r30 c2 c8">10.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r27 r29 r30 c2 c9">20.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r27 r29 r30 c2 c10">10.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r27 r29 r30 c2 c11">10.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r27 r29 r30 c2 c12">21.3</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r27 r29 r30 c3">215,860</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r31" headers="r20 r27 r29 c1">Elderly</th>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r27 r29 r31 c2 c4">10.1</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r27 r29 r31 c2 c5">17.6</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r27 r29 r31 c2 c6">28.7</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r27 r29 r31 c2 c7">10.8</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r27 r29 r31 c2 c8">8.5</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r27 r29 r31 c2 c9">12.7</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r27 r29 r31 c2 c10">5.8</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r27 r29 r31 c2 c11">5.8</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r27 r29 r31 c2 c12">29.6</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r27 r29 r31 c3">20,384</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r32" headers="r20 r27 r29 c1">Elderly <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> <sup>e</sup></th>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r27 r29 r32 c2 c4">42.3</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r27 r29 r32 c2 c5">27.4</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r27 r29 r32 c2 c6">13.2</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r27 r29 r32 c2 c7">4.2</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r27 r29 r32 c2 c8">5.1</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r27 r29 r32 c2 c9">5.1</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r27 r29 r32 c2 c10">1.4</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r27 r29 r32 c2 c11">1.4</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r27 r29 r32 c2 c12">70.7</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r27 r29 r32 c3">1,081</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td></td>
|
|
<th class="subpanel" colspan="10" id="r33" headers="r20">(c): using adjusted income percentiles for all people and the <abbr class="spell">NRC</abbr> equivalence scale (adjusted weights) <sup>f</sup></th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r34" headers="r20 r33 c1">Upper bound ($)</th>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r33 r34 c2 c4">9,000</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r33 r34 c2 c5">13,896</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r33 r34 c2 c6">23,444</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r33 r34 c2 c7">28,718</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r33 r34 c2 c8">34,843</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r33 r34 c2 c9">52,919</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r33 r34 c2 c10">73,743</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r33 r34 c2 c11">. . .</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r33 r34 c2 c12">14,359</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r33 r34 c3">185,284</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r35" headers="r20 r33 c1">Distribution (%)</th>
|
|
<td colspan="10"></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r36" headers="r20 r33 r35 c1">All people</th>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r33 r35 r36 c2 c4">10.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r33 r35 r36 c2 c5">10.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r33 r35 r36 c2 c6">20.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r33 r35 r36 c2 c7">10.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r33 r35 r36 c2 c8">10.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r33 r35 r36 c2 c9">20.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r33 r35 r36 c2 c10">10.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r33 r35 r36 c2 c11">10.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r33 r35 r36 c2 c12">21.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r33 r35 r36 c3">185,284</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r37" headers="r20 r33 r35 c1">Elderly <sup>b</sup></th>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r33 r35 r37 c2 c4">10.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r33 r35 r37 c2 c5">17.3</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r33 r35 r37 c2 c6">28.3</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r33 r35 r37 c2 c7">10.7</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r33 r35 r37 c2 c8">8.6</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r33 r35 r37 c2 c9">13.2</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r33 r35 r37 c2 c10">5.9</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r33 r35 r37 c2 c11">5.9</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r33 r35 r37 c2 c12">29.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r33 r35 r37 c3">14,564</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r38" headers="r20 r33 r35 c1">Elderly <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> <sup>c</sup></th>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r33 r35 r38 c2 c4">46.7</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r33 r35 r38 c2 c5">23.9</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r33 r35 r38 c2 c6">12.4</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r33 r35 r38 c2 c7">3.7</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r33 r35 r38 c2 c8">5.2</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r33 r35 r38 c2 c9">5.3</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r33 r35 r38 c2 c10">1.5</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r33 r35 r38 c2 c11">1.4</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r33 r35 r38 c2 c12">71.7</td>
|
|
<td headers="r20 r33 r35 r38 c3">906</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tbody>
|
|
<tfoot>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="firstNote" colspan="11">SOURCE: Authors' calculations using 2003 <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">ASEC</abbr> data matched to administrative records.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="note" colspan="11">NOTES: . . . = not applicable.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="note" colspan="11">a. Figures involve unadjusted <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> income data and weights, as well as the entire 2003 <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">ASEC</abbr> poverty sample of 215,860 persons.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="note" colspan="11">b. Persons with a <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>-reported age of 65 years or older.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="note" colspan="11">c. Persons with a positive <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> record.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="note" colspan="11">d. Estimates are based on adjusted <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> income records, unadjusted weights, and involve the entire 2003 <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">ASEC</abbr> sample used to generate official poverty estimates.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="note" colspan="11">e. Persons are identified as <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients if either they have no matching <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">SER</abbr> records and a positive <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> record, or matching <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">SER</abbr> records and a positive <abbr class="spell">SSR</abbr> <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> record.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="lastNote" colspan="11">f. Figures involve adjusted <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> income data (with "sample restriction" decision rules) and weights, and a 2003 <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">ASEC</abbr> poverty sample limited to those observations with at least one family member with matching <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">SER</abbr> records.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tfoot>
|
|
</table>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<p>For each of the samples, we also report where the elderly as a whole and elderly <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients are on the equivalence scale. Again referring to sample (a) where (n = 215,860), the unadjusted <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> data indicate that 27.5 percent of the elderly had incomes below half the median, and over <span class="nobr">three-quarters</span> of elderly <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients were at the same level. At the same time, some elderly persons receiving <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> appear relatively well off: 8.3 percent of elderly <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients have incomes above the median. This outcome occurs because these recipients live in families with substantial income from other sources. The annual equivalent of the 2002 single-person <abbr class="spell">FBR</abbr> was $6,540, well below the half-the-median relative poverty threshold of $12,856. Indeed, separate tabulations indicate that only 8.2 percent of all persons (regardless of <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> status) included in the 2003 <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">ASEC</abbr> had equivalence-adjusted incomes less than the annualized single-person <abbr class="spell">FBR</abbr> amount.</p>
|
|
<p>Tabulations in both the (b) and (c) panels of Table 9 show what occurs when the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> data are adjusted. Our discussion concentrates on comparison of outcomes before adjustment—tabulation (a)—to outcomes using the income-adjusted, restricted, and reweighted sample, (c). It should be noted first that the restrictive and inclusive income-adjustment procedures have substantially different implications for the location and shape of the income distribution. Under the restrictive adjustment, median equivalent income changes very little, falling less than a percent, from $25,712 to $25,527. The inclusive adjustment produces a substantial upward shift, raising the estimated median by almost 12 percent, from $25,712 to $28,718. Every other decile cutoff increases as well. Second, under both adjustment protocols there is little difference between estimates based on the entire <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> with income adjustment—sample (b) where (n = 215,860)—and values calculated using the restricted sample (c) where (n = 185,284). Indeed, for all three <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> versions the estimated relative poverty rate for all persons is similar, <span class="nobr">21–22 percent.</span> The adjusted samples produce a reduced, but still very high, relative poverty rate for elderly <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients; here, too, there is little difference between estimates made under restrictive and inclusive adjustment assumptions. Using sample (c) places the <abbr class="spell">FBR</abbr> even further down the income distribution. By our calculation, in 2002, the restrictive income-adjusted data indicate that only 7.7 percent of persons had equivalence-adjusted incomes less than the annualized <abbr class="spell">FBR</abbr>. The corresponding figure for the inclusive income adjustment is just 5.7 percent.</p>
|
|
<p>The restrictive and inclusive income-adjustment procedures differ in their consequences for the estimated dispersion of income. One common measure of dispersion, or inequality, of income is the ratio of the 90<sup>th</sup> to the 10<sup>th</sup> decile cutoff (see Burkhauser, Feng, and Jenkins (2007) for a critical discussion). Without adjustment, the 90/10 ratio calculated from the unadjusted sample is 8.68. The same ratio calculated using sample (c) is 8.70 using the restrictive income adjustment and 8.19 using the inclusive alternative.</p>
|
|
<p>Comparison of results by decile of the income distribution in Table 9 provides additional perspective on the absolute poverty rates reported in Table 7. In Table 6, the restrictive/inclusive adjusted estimate of the poverty rate for all persons is <span class="nobr">9.3–11.8 percent.</span> For the elderly the range is <span class="nobr">8.1–8.4 percent,</span> and for elderly <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients the range is <span class="nobr">38.6–39.9 percent.</span> For the elderly these rates compare closely with the poverty rates in Table 8 if instead of considering half the median we take the 10<sup>th</sup> decile of the overall income distribution as the standard. Under this stringent definition, the restrictive/inclusive range for the elderly poverty rate is <span class="nobr">6.8–10.0 percent,</span> and the poverty rate range for elderly <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients is <span class="nobr">35.2–46.7 percent.</span> Recall that the official 2002 poverty standard for elderly persons living alone was $8,628, falling between the first decile cutoff under restrictive ($7,624) and inclusive ($9,000) adjustment procedures. Thus in 2002 the official poverty standard was roughly equivalent in terms of estimated poverty prevalence to what would have been obtained had a relative standard been used and set at the tenth decile. Whether the composition of the population identified as poor under the two approaches would be similar is a matter for additional research.</p>
|
|
<p>Table 9 compares the elderly as a whole and elderly <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients with the national income distribution. For some purposes it may be more useful to compare elderly <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients with the entire elderly population from which the former are a subset of. Table 10 places elderly <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients in context of the income distribution of all elderly persons (with and without <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> payments), using the alternative merge assumptions. In this case, both the restrictive and inclusive adjustment procedures shift the estimated income distribution to the right, raising estimated median income among all elderly persons by 4.8 percent under the restrictive adjustment and 7.9 percent under the inclusive adjustment. (Here again we concentrate on the restricted and reweighted subsample.) Between 46.3 percent and 46.6 percent of elderly <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients have incomes in the lowest decile of the elderly income distribution; nearly 70 percent fall in the lower 20 percent of the distribution. At the same time, under both adjustment rules we estimate that approximately 19 percent of elderly <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients have equivalence-adjusted incomes that exceed the median income calculated for the entire elderly population.</p>
|
|
<div class="table" id="table10">
|
|
<table>
|
|
<caption><span class="tableNumber">Table 10. </span>The effect of merging <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> and administrative data on the estimated income distribution of the elderly, 2002</caption>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:10em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="8" style="width:5em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="2" style="width:7em"></colgroup>
|
|
<thead>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stubHeading" rowspan="2" id="c1">Income distribution of the elderly <sup>a</sup></th>
|
|
<th class="spanner" colspan="9" id="c2">Percentiles</th>
|
|
<th rowspan="2" id="c3">Number of person records</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th id="c4" headers="c2">10</th>
|
|
<th id="c5" headers="c2">20</th>
|
|
<th id="c6" headers="c2">40</th>
|
|
<th id="c7" headers="c2">50</th>
|
|
<th id="c8" headers="c2">60</th>
|
|
<th id="c9" headers="c2">80</th>
|
|
<th id="c10" headers="c2">90</th>
|
|
<th id="c11" headers="c2">Top decile</th>
|
|
<th id="c12" headers="c2">50 percent of the median</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</thead>
|
|
<tbody>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td></td>
|
|
<th class="panelWithSub" colspan="10" id="r1">Restrictive 2002 <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/administrative matched data set—</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td></td>
|
|
<th class="subWithPanel" colspan="10" id="r2" headers="r1">(a): using unadjusted income percentiles for the elderly and the <abbr class="spell">NRC</abbr> equivalence scale (unadjusted weights) <sup>b</sup></th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r3" headers="r1 r2 c1">Upper bound ($)</th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r3 c2 c4">8,162</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r3 c2 c5">11,013</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r3 c2 c6">16,375</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r3 c2 c7">19,736</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r3 c2 c8">23,522</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r3 c2 c9">36,844</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r3 c2 c10">53,070</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r3 c2 c11">. . .</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r3 c2 c12">9,868</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r3 c3">20,384</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r4" headers="r1 r2 c1">Distribution (%)</th>
|
|
<td colspan="10"></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r5" headers="r1 r2 r4 c1">All elderly</th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 r5 c2 c4">10.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 r5 c2 c5">10.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 r5 c2 c6">20.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 r5 c2 c7">10.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 r5 c2 c8">10.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 r5 c2 c9">20.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 r5 c2 c10">10.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 r5 c2 c11">10.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 r5 c2 c12">15.8</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 r5 c3">20,384</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r6" headers="r1 r2 r4 c1">Elderly <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> <sup>c</sup></th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 r6 c2 c4">47.7</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 r6 c2 c5">18.4</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 r6 c2 c6">15.8</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 r6 c2 c7">3.6</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 r6 c2 c8">4.6</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 r6 c2 c9">6.5</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 r6 c2 c10">2.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 r6 c2 c11">1.5</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 r6 c2 c12">61.3</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 r4 r6 c3">778</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td></td>
|
|
<th class="subpanel" colspan="10" id="r7" headers="r1">(b): using adjusted income percentiles for the elderly and the <abbr class="spell">NRC</abbr> equivalence scale (unadjusted weights) <sup>d</sup></th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r8" headers="r1 r7 c1">Upper bound ($)</th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r8 c2 c4">8,604</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r8 c2 c5">11,448</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r8 c2 c6">16,962</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r8 c2 c7">20,248</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r8 c2 c8">24,006</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r8 c2 c9">37,027</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r8 c2 c10">53,747</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r8 c2 c11">. . .</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r8 c2 c12">10,124</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r8 c3">20,384</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r9" headers="r1 r7 c1">Distribution (%)</th>
|
|
<td colspan="10"></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r10" headers="r1 r7 r9 c1">All elderly</th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r9 r10 c2 c4">10.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r9 r10 c2 c5">10.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r9 r10 c2 c6">20.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r9 r10 c2 c7">10.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r9 r10 c2 c8">10.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r9 r10 c2 c9">20.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r9 r10 c2 c10">10.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r9 r10 c2 c11">10.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r9 r10 c2 c12">14.9</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r9 r10 c3">20,384</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r11" headers="r1 r7 r9 c1">Elderly <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> <sup>e</sup></th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r9 r11 c2 c4">42.8</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r9 r11 c2 c5">24.1</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r9 r11 c2 c6">10.7</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r9 r11 c2 c7">3.3</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r9 r11 c2 c8">4.8</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r9 r11 c2 c9">8.8</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r9 r11 c2 c10">3.2</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r9 r11 c2 c11">2.3</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r9 r11 c2 c12">58.9</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 r9 r11 c3">1,081</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td></td>
|
|
<th class="subpanel" colspan="10" id="r12" headers="r1">(c): using adjusted income percentiles for the elderly and the <abbr class="spell">NRC</abbr> equivalence scale (adjusted weights) <sup>f</sup></th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r13" headers="r1 r12 c1">Upper bound ($)</th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r12 r13 c2 c4">8,868</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r12 r13 c2 c5">11,669</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r12 r13 c2 c6">17,318</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r12 r13 c2 c7">20,690</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r12 r13 c2 c8">24,472</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r12 r13 c2 c9">37,508</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r12 r13 c2 c10">54,300</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r12 r13 c2 c11">. . .</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r12 r13 c2 c12">10,345</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r12 r13 c3">14,564</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r14" headers="r1 r12 c1">Distribution (%)</th>
|
|
<td colspan="10"></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r15" headers="r1 r12 r14 c1">All elderly</th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r12 r14 r15 c2 c4">10.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r12 r14 r15 c2 c5">10.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r12 r14 r15 c2 c6">20.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r12 r14 r15 c2 c7">10.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r12 r14 r15 c2 c8">10.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r12 r14 r15 c2 c9">20.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r12 r14 r15 c2 c10">10.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r12 r14 r15 c2 c11">10.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r12 r14 r15 c2 c12">15.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r12 r14 r15 c3">14,564</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r16" headers="r1 r12 r14 c1">Elderly <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> <sup>e</sup></th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r12 r14 r16 c2 c4">46.3</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r12 r14 r16 c2 c5">22.1</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r12 r14 r16 c2 c6">9.3</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r12 r14 r16 c2 c7">3.1</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r12 r14 r16 c2 c8">4.9</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r12 r14 r16 c2 c9">8.9</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r12 r14 r16 c2 c10">3.2</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r12 r14 r16 c2 c11">2.2</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r12 r14 r16 c2 c12">61.2</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r12 r14 r16 c3">906</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td></td>
|
|
<th class="panelWithSub" colspan="10" id="r17">Inclusive 2002 <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/administrative matched data set—</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td></td>
|
|
<th class="subWithPanel" colspan="10" id="r18" headers="r17">(a): using unadjusted income percentiles for the elderly and the <abbr class="spell">NRC</abbr> equivalence scale (unadjusted weights) <sup>b</sup></th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r19" headers="r17 r18 c1">Upper bound ($)</th>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r18 r19 c2 c4">8,162</td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r18 r19 c2 c5">11,013</td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r18 r19 c2 c6">16,375</td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r18 r19 c2 c7">19,736</td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r18 r19 c2 c8">23,522</td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r18 r19 c2 c9">36,844</td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r18 r19 c2 c10">53,070</td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r18 r19 c2 c11">. . .</td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r18 r19 c2 c12">9,868</td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r18 r19 c3">20,384</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r20" headers="r17 r18 c1">Distribution (%)</th>
|
|
<td colspan="10"></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r21" headers="r17 r18 r20 c1">All elderly</th>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r18 r20 r21 c2 c4">10.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r18 r20 r21 c2 c5">10.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r18 r20 r21 c2 c6">20.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r18 r20 r21 c2 c7">10.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r18 r20 r21 c2 c8">10.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r18 r20 r21 c2 c9">20.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r18 r20 r21 c2 c10">10.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r18 r20 r21 c2 c11">10.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r18 r20 r21 c2 c12">15.8</td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r18 r20 r21 c3">20,384</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r22" headers="r17 r18 r20 c1">Elderly <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> <sup>c</sup></th>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r18 r20 r22 c2 c4">47.7</td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r18 r20 r22 c2 c5">18.4</td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r18 r20 r22 c2 c6">15.8</td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r18 r20 r22 c2 c7">3.6</td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r18 r20 r22 c2 c8">4.6</td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r18 r20 r22 c2 c9">6.5</td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r18 r20 r22 c2 c10">2.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r18 r20 r22 c2 c11">1.5</td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r18 r20 r22 c2 c12">61.3</td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r18 r20 r22 c3">778</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td></td>
|
|
<th class="subpanel" colspan="10" id="r23" headers="r17">(b): using adjusted income percentiles for the elderly and the <abbr class="spell">NRC</abbr> equivalence scale (unadjusted weights) <sup>d</sup></th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r24" headers="r17 r23 c1">Upper bound ($)</th>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r23 r24 c2 c4">8,687</td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r23 r24 c2 c5">11,557</td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r23 r24 c2 c6">17,256</td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r23 r24 c2 c7">20,749</td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r23 r24 c2 c8">24,633</td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r23 r24 c2 c9">38,589</td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r23 r24 c2 c10">56,083</td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r23 r24 c2 c11">. . .</td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r23 r24 c2 c12">15,675</td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r23 r24 c3">20,384</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r25" headers="r17 r23 c1">Distribution (%)</th>
|
|
<td colspan="10"></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r26" headers="r17 r23 r25 c1">All elderly</th>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r23 r25 r26 c2 c4">10.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r23 r25 r26 c2 c5">10.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r23 r25 r26 c2 c6">20.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r23 r25 r26 c2 c7">10.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r23 r25 r26 c2 c8">10.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r23 r25 r26 c2 c9">20.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r23 r25 r26 c2 c10">10.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r23 r25 r26 c2 c11">10.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r23 r25 r26 c2 c12">15.6</td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r23 r25 r26 c3">20,384</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r27" headers="r17 r23 r25 c1">Elderly <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> <sup>e</sup></th>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r23 r25 r27 c2 c4">42.1</td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r23 r25 r27 c2 c5">23.5</td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r23 r25 r27 c2 c6">11.4</td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r23 r25 r27 c2 c7">3.1</td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r23 r25 r27 c2 c8">4.3</td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r23 r25 r27 c2 c9">9.4</td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r23 r25 r27 c2 c10">4.2</td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r23 r25 r27 c2 c11">2.1</td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r23 r25 r27 c2 c12">59.1</td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r23 r25 r27 c3">1,081</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td></td>
|
|
<th class="subpanel" colspan="10" id="r28" headers="r17">(c): using adjusted income percentiles for the elderly and the <abbr class="spell">NRC</abbr> equivalence scale (adjusted weights) <sup>f</sup></th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r29" headers="r17 r28 c1">Upper bound ($)</th>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r28 r29 c2 c4">8,988</td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r28 r29 c2 c5">11,856</td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r28 r29 c2 c6">17,763</td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r28 r29 c2 c7">21,298</td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r28 r29 c2 c8">25,438</td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r28 r29 c2 c9">39,860</td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r28 r29 c2 c10">57,294</td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r28 r29 c2 c11">. . .</td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r28 r29 c2 c12">10,649</td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r28 r29 c3">14,564</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r30" headers="r17 r28 c1">Distribution (%)</th>
|
|
<td colspan="10"></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r31" headers="r17 r28 r30 c1">All elderly</th>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r28 r30 r31 c2 c4">10.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r28 r30 r31 c2 c5">10.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r28 r30 r31 c2 c6">20.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r28 r30 r31 c2 c7">10.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r28 r30 r31 c2 c8">10.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r28 r30 r31 c2 c9">20.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r28 r30 r31 c2 c10">10.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r28 r30 r31 c2 c11">10.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r28 r30 r31 c2 c12">15.5</td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r28 r30 r31 c3">14,564</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r32" headers="r17 r28 r30 c1">Elderly <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> <sup>e</sup></th>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r28 r30 r32 c2 c4">46.6</td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r28 r30 r32 c2 c5">20.4</td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r28 r30 r32 c2 c6">10.4</td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r28 r30 r32 c2 c7">3.3</td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r28 r30 r32 c2 c8">4.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r28 r30 r32 c2 c9">9.7</td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r28 r30 r32 c2 c10">3.5</td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r28 r30 r32 c2 c11">2.2</td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r28 r30 r32 c2 c12">60.5</td>
|
|
<td headers="r17 r28 r30 r32 c3">906</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tbody>
|
|
<tfoot>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="firstNote" colspan="11">SOURCE: Authors' calculations using 2003 <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">ASEC</abbr> data matched to administrative records.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="note" colspan="11">NOTES: . . . = not applicable.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="note" colspan="11">a. Persons with a <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>-reported age of 65 years or older.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="note" colspan="11">b. Figures involve unadjusted <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> income data and weights, as well as the entire 2003 <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">ASEC</abbr> poverty sample of 215,860 persons.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="note" colspan="11">c. Persons with a positive <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> record.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="note" colspan="11">d. Estimates are based on adjusted <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> income records, unadjusted weights, and involve the entire 2003 <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">ASEC</abbr> sample used to generate official poverty estimates.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="note" colspan="11">e. Persons are identified as <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients if either they have no matching <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">SER</abbr> records and a positive <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> record, or matching <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">SER</abbr> records and a positive <abbr class="spell">SSR</abbr> <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> record.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="lastNote" colspan="11">f. Figures involve adjusted <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> income data (with "sample restriction" decision rules) and weights, and a 2003 <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">ASEC</abbr> poverty sample limited to those observations with at least one family member with matching <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">SER</abbr> records.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tfoot>
|
|
</table>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<h3>Summary</h3>
|
|
<p>When poverty is assessed using a relative standard of less than half the median, the prevalence of poverty is estimated to be much greater than when the official standard is employed, and poverty among the elderly exceeds the rate for all other persons. Adjusting the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> data using information from administrative files leads to generally greater income, but little change in relative status. Considered in either relative or absolute terms, the prevalence of poverty among elderly <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients is high, and the <abbr class="spell">FBR</abbr> is inadequate by itself to raise income above the poverty standard. Here as with the absolute poverty standard, the outcome is sensitive to the merging procedure employed.</p>
|
|
<h2>Conclusions</h2>
|
|
<p>This article explores the effect of merging <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> administrative data on perception of poverty among the elderly in general and <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients in particular. The findings are as follows:</p>
|
|
<ul>
|
|
<li>The <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> substantially understates the prevalence of <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> receipt in the population.</li>
|
|
<li>For the entire national population, adjustment of <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> weights and reported income using administrative data significantly reduces estimated rates of absolute poverty (using the official <abbr>U.S.</abbr> poverty standard), but has a smaller influence on relative poverty rates. In contrast, <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> adjustments have a sizable impact on the poverty rates of elderly <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients, whether they are evaluated by an absolute or relative standard.</li>
|
|
<li>Without adjustment, <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> data modestly exaggerate income inequality.</li>
|
|
<li>Use of a relative poverty standard leads to perception of greater prevalence of poverty both overall and among the elderly.</li>
|
|
<li>Elderly <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients are very poor. Nearly 70 percent fall in the bottom fifth of the national income distribution, and about the same proportion fall in the bottom fifth of the income distribution among all elderly persons. Although correction for <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> underreporting reduces the official poverty rate for elderly <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients, the revised absolute rate is still <span class="nobr">38–40 percent</span> when all <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> (and <abbr class="spell">OASDI</abbr>) benefits are included as income.</li>
|
|
</ul>
|
|
<p>There are many opportunities for additional research. It is important to replicate this analysis for subsequent years. Among other things, replication would support the study of the effect of using administrative data on the perception of poverty at one versus numerous points in time. We need to assess the sensitivity of our results to alternative treatment of <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> response and variations in procedures for addressing unmatched observations. We have provided only point estimates and have slated testing for statistical precision for another time because of the challenges raised by reweighting and uncertainty about how to adjust such estimates for the effects of our merging strategy. Like official poverty measurement, our income measure does not include income from the Food Stamp Program or the Earned Income Tax Credit program despite these programs being among the largest of their kind in the United States (Trenkamp and Wiseman 2007). It is important to gauge the effect of such programs on poverty and the income distribution. Our analysis reveals that the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> substantially underreports <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> receipt, and similar underreporting problems are known to arise for food stamp receipt (Meyer and Sullivan 2007). It would be advantageous to experiment with the incorporation of administrative data into the Census Bureau's "alternative poverty measures" analyses.</p>
|
|
<h2 id="atA">Appendix A: Data Merge Procedure</h2>
|
|
<p><i><a href="#arA">Return to first in-text reference.</a></i></p>
|
|
<p>The sources used for the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/administrative data-matching process are identified by acronym as indicated and detailed in Box 1 below. For convenience, these acronyms are used both to refer to a source itself and, in places, to the value of payments recorded in the source. Hence "<abbr class="spell">DER</abbr>=0" indicates that the value of the <abbr class="spell">DER</abbr> for some person in the merged data set is zero.</p>
|
|
<div class="textBox2">
|
|
<div class="title"><span class="tableNumber">Box 1. </span>Sources employed in <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/administrative data match</div>
|
|
<div class="table">
|
|
<table class="textTable">
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:8em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:300em"></colgroup>
|
|
<tbody>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">ASEC</abbr></th>
|
|
<td><b>Current Population Survey/Annual Social and Economic Supplement, 2003.</b> Captures wage and salary earnings for calendar year 2002 as well as self-employment income (<abbr class="spell">SEI</abbr>)—(including losses)—derived from farm and nonfarm activities.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr class="topPad1">
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><abbr class="spell">SER</abbr></th>
|
|
<td><b>Summary Earnings Record.</b> "<abbr class="spell">SER</abbr> match" indicates that the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> individual has been matched to SSA's master database. The <abbr class="spell">SER</abbr> includes all earnings (including positive <abbr class="spell">SEI</abbr>) subject to <abbr>FICA</abbr> taxation, and thus the value is capped at the <abbr>FICA</abbr> contribution maximum. The <abbr class="spell">SER</abbr> does not capture <abbr class="spell">SEI</abbr> losses. </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr class="topPad1">
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><abbr class="spell">DER</abbr></th>
|
|
<td><b>Detailed Earnings Record.</b> Summary of earnings reports from all employers and <abbr class="spell">SEI</abbr> received by <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr>. Earnings totals are not capped at <abbr>FICA</abbr> contribution maximums and include earnings from employment not covered by <abbr class="spell">OASDI</abbr>, but subject to Medicare taxation. The tabulation includes separate information for wage and salary receipts, <abbr class="spell">SEI</abbr> (if positive), and deferred income.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr class="topPad1">
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><abbr class="spell">SSR</abbr></th>
|
|
<td><b>Supplemental Security Record.</b> Administrative record of <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> payments.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr class="topPad1">
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><abbr class="spell">PHUS</abbr></th>
|
|
<td><b>Payment History Update System.</b> Administrative record of <abbr class="spell">OASDI</abbr> benefit amounts.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tbody>
|
|
</table>
|
|
</div>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<p>The protocol for merging the 2003 <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">ASEC</abbr> and administrative data is summarized in Table A-1 on the following page.</p>
|
|
<div class="table" id="tableA1">
|
|
<table class="textTable">
|
|
<caption><span class="tableNumber">Table A-1. </span>Protocol for merging <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> and administrative data</caption>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:10em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:15em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:15em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="2" style="width:30em"></colgroup>
|
|
<thead>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th rowspan="2" scope="colgroup">Number of observations <sup>a</sup></th>
|
|
<th rowspan="2" scope="colgroup">Administrative match status</th>
|
|
<th rowspan="2" scope="colgroup"><abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> (baseline) record content</th>
|
|
<th colspan="2" class="spanner" scope="colgroup">Income adjustment</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th scope="col">Restrictive</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Inclusive</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</thead>
|
|
<tbody>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th colspan="5" class="panel shaded" scope="row">Earnings: Wage, salary, and self-employment income </th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>Summary: When a <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">SER</abbr> match and a positive <abbr class="spell">DER</abbr> earnings total exist, we accept the <abbr class="spell">DER</abbr> total. <sup>b</sup> If a <abbr class="spell">DER</abbr> record is not available, we use <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> values.</td>
|
|
<td>Summary: When a <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">SER</abbr> match and a positive <abbr class="spell">SER</abbr> earnings record exist, we generally accept the greater of the <abbr class="spell">DER</abbr>, <abbr class="spell">SER</abbr>, or <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> earnings totals. <sup>b</sup> If a <abbr class="spell">SER</abbr> record is not available, we use <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> values.<br> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td>50,821</td>
|
|
<td>No <abbr class="spell">SER</abbr> match.<br> </td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>Accept the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> earnings total.</td>
|
|
<td>Same. <sup>c</sup> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td>81,638</td>
|
|
<td>With <abbr class="spell">SER</abbr> match, no <abbr class="spell">DER</abbr> match, or <abbr class="spell">DER</abbr> earnings = 0.<br> </td>
|
|
<td><abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> imputed and nonimputed earnings records.</td>
|
|
<td>Accept the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> earnings total.</td>
|
|
<td>Same. <sup>c </sup></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td>83,401</td>
|
|
<td>With <abbr class="spell">DER</abbr> match; positive <abbr class="spell">DER</abbr> earnings total.</td>
|
|
<td><abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> imputed or nonimputed earnings records.</td>
|
|
<td>If the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/SEI record is negative and not imputed, set the adjusted earnings record to the <abbr class="spell">DER</abbr> earnings total plus the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/SEI value. Otherwise, set adjusted earnings record to the <abbr class="spell">DER</abbr> value.<br> </td>
|
|
<td>Apply the greater of (1) the earnings value assigned under the "restrictive" procedure or (2) the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> earnings total.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th colspan="5" class="panel shaded" scope="row"><abbr class="spell">OASDI</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>: Income from <abbr class="spell">OASDI</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> <sup>a</sup></th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>d</td>
|
|
<td>Use administrative data, when available.</td>
|
|
<td>Differs from the restrictive adjustment only in states with <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> supplement.<br> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td>50,821</td>
|
|
<td>No <abbr class="spell">SER</abbr> match</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>Accept the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">OASDI</abbr> total.<br> </td>
|
|
<td>Same. <sup>c</sup></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td>67,745</td>
|
|
<td><abbr class="spell">SER</abbr> match in state with universal federally administered state <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> supplement.<br> </td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>Accept the sum of the <abbr class="spell">SSR</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">PHUS</abbr> amounts for the sum of <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">OASDI</abbr> receipt.</td>
|
|
<td>Same. <sup>c </sup></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td>97,294</td>
|
|
<td><abbr class="spell">SER</abbr> match in state with universal state-administered <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> supplement.</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>Accept the sum of the <abbr class="spell">SSR</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">PHUS</abbr> amounts for federal contribution to the sum of <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">OASDI</abbr> receipt. Add the lower estimate of state-administered supplement (see <a href="#atB">Appendix B</a>).</td>
|
|
<td>Accept the sum of the <abbr class="spell">SSR</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">PHUS</abbr> amounts for federal contribution to the sum of <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">OASDI</abbr> receipt. Add the higher estimate of state-administered supplement (see <a href="#atB">Appendix B</a>).</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tbody>
|
|
<tfoot>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="firstNote" colspan="5">SOURCE: Authors' calculations using 2003 <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">ASEC</abbr> data matched to administrative records.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="note" colspan="5">NOTES: . . . = not applicable.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="note" colspan="5">a. Numbers below are counts of <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> person observations meeting indicated administrative match and <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> record content requirement for the row.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="note" colspan="5">b. When appropriate, <abbr class="spell">SER</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">DER</abbr> values are adjusted for self-employment income (<abbr class="spell">SEI</abbr>) losses reported in the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>. </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="note" colspan="5">c. "Same" means the same procedure as that used in the restrictive adjustment.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="lastNote" colspan="5">d. Given evident respondent confusion over difference between <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">OASDI</abbr>, we consider benefit totals.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tfoot>
|
|
</table>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<h2 id="atB">Appendix B: State <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> Supplements</h2>
|
|
<p><i><a href="#arB">Return to first in-text reference.</a></i></p>
|
|
<p>As shown in Table B-1, all but one of the 51 states (including the District of Columbia) supplemented the federal <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> payment in 2002 for at least some individuals (<abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> 2004, 7). In a very few cases, these payments are required by federal law to sustain benefits for persons receiving state benefits at the time (1974). <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> replaced the federal/state programs—Old-Age Assistance and Aid to the Blind—instituted by the Social Security Act of 1935. The remaining "optional"<sup><a href="#mn17" id="mt17">17</a></sup> supplements serve a variety of purposes, from general income support to provision for special needs. Some state supplements are administered by <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr>; in other cases the supplements are administered by states. When the supplements are administered by <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr>, states pay both for the benefit itself and a per-payment charge levied by <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> to cover its costs.</p>
|
|
<div class="table" id="tableB1">
|
|
<table>
|
|
<caption><span class="tableNumber">Table B-1. </span>State <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> payment supplementation, January 2002</caption>
|
|
<colgroup span="2" style="width:2em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="3" style="width:10em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="2" style="width:10em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:10em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:10em"></colgroup>
|
|
<thead>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stubHeading" rowspan="2" colspan="2" scope="colgroup">State and (FIPS code)</th>
|
|
<th rowspan="2" scope="colgroup">Recipients of federally administered <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> payments (national count)</th>
|
|
<th class="spanner" colspan="3" scope="colgroup">Universal income supplement—monthly benefit, other than the mandatory minimum supplementation ($) <sup>a</sup></th>
|
|
<th class="spanner" colspan="2" scope="colgroup">Administration and take-up</th>
|
|
<th rowspan="2" scope="colgroup">Adjustment procedure <sup>b</sup> (1 = special rule; 2 = <abbr class="spell">SSR</abbr> + <abbr class="spell">PHUS</abbr>) (rule applied)</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th scope="col"><abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> child, living with own family (child supplement)</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Single adult, living independently (single supplement)</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Couple, living independently (couple supplement)</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Optional state supplement, federally administered (yes = 1; no = 0)</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Optional supplement recipients— state or federally administered (state count)</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</thead>
|
|
<tbody>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><abbr title="Alabama">AL</abbr></th>
|
|
<td>(1)</td>
|
|
<td>161,729</td>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>0</td>
|
|
<td>672</td>
|
|
<td>2</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><abbr title="Alaska">AK</abbr></th>
|
|
<td>(2)</td>
|
|
<td>9,222</td>
|
|
<td>0</td>
|
|
<td>362.00</td>
|
|
<td>528.00</td>
|
|
<td>0</td>
|
|
<td>14,640</td>
|
|
<td>1</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><abbr title="Arizona">AZ</abbr></th>
|
|
<td>(4)</td>
|
|
<td>85,308</td>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>677</td>
|
|
<td>2</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><abbr title="Arkansas">AR</abbr></th>
|
|
<td>(5)</td>
|
|
<td>85,369</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>2</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><abbr title="California">CA</abbr></th>
|
|
<td>(6)</td>
|
|
<td>1,113,679</td>
|
|
<td>98.00</td>
|
|
<td>205.00</td>
|
|
<td>515.00</td>
|
|
<td>1</td>
|
|
<td>1,093,860</td>
|
|
<td>2</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><abbr title="Colorado">CO</abbr></th>
|
|
<td>(8)</td>
|
|
<td>53,821</td>
|
|
<td>37.00</td>
|
|
<td>37.00</td>
|
|
<td>347.00</td>
|
|
<td>0</td>
|
|
<td>34,982</td>
|
|
<td>1</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><abbr title="Connecticut">CT</abbr></th>
|
|
<td>(9)</td>
|
|
<td>49,953</td>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>202.00</td>
|
|
<td>277.00</td>
|
|
<td>0</td>
|
|
<td>21,984</td>
|
|
<td>1</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><abbr title="Delaware">DE</abbr></th>
|
|
<td>(10)</td>
|
|
<td>12,310</td>
|
|
<td>. . . </td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>1</td>
|
|
<td>590</td>
|
|
<td>2</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><abbr class="spell">DC</abbr></th>
|
|
<td>(11)</td>
|
|
<td>20,099</td>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>1</td>
|
|
<td>1,680</td>
|
|
<td>2</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><abbr title="Florida">FL</abbr></th>
|
|
<td>(12)</td>
|
|
<td>387,626</td>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>0</td>
|
|
<td>15,169</td>
|
|
<td>2</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><abbr title="Georgia">GA</abbr></th>
|
|
<td>(13)</td>
|
|
<td>198,294</td>
|
|
<td>. . . </td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>2</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><abbr title="Hawaii">HI</abbr></th>
|
|
<td>(15)</td>
|
|
<td>21,402</td>
|
|
<td>4.90</td>
|
|
<td>4.90</td>
|
|
<td>8.80</td>
|
|
<td>1</td>
|
|
<td>19,680</td>
|
|
<td>2</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><abbr title="Idaho">ID</abbr></th>
|
|
<td>(16)</td>
|
|
<td>19,034</td>
|
|
<td>52.00</td>
|
|
<td>52.00</td>
|
|
<td>20.00</td>
|
|
<td>0</td>
|
|
<td>10,795</td>
|
|
<td>1</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><abbr title="Illinois">IL</abbr></th>
|
|
<td>(17)</td>
|
|
<td>250,212</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>. . . </td>
|
|
<td>. . . </td>
|
|
<td>0</td>
|
|
<td>38,388</td>
|
|
<td>2</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><abbr title="Indiana">IN</abbr></th>
|
|
<td>(18)</td>
|
|
<td>89,586</td>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>0</td>
|
|
<td>1,383</td>
|
|
<td>2</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><abbr title="Iowa">IA</abbr></th>
|
|
<td>(19)</td>
|
|
<td>41,146</td>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>22.00</td>
|
|
<td>44.00</td>
|
|
<td>1</td>
|
|
<td>6,630</td>
|
|
<td>2</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><abbr title="Kansas">KS</abbr></th>
|
|
<td>(20)</td>
|
|
<td>36,759</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>2</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><abbr title="Kentucky">KY</abbr></th>
|
|
<td>(21)</td>
|
|
<td>176,458</td>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>0</td>
|
|
<td>4,739</td>
|
|
<td>2</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><abbr title="Louisiana">LA</abbr></th>
|
|
<td>(22)</td>
|
|
<td>166,574</td>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>0</td>
|
|
<td>5,121</td>
|
|
<td>2</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><abbr title="Maine">ME</abbr></th>
|
|
<td>(23)</td>
|
|
<td>30,390</td>
|
|
<td>10.00</td>
|
|
<td>10.00</td>
|
|
<td>15.00</td>
|
|
<td>0</td>
|
|
<td>34,977</td>
|
|
<td>1</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><abbr title="Maryland">MD</abbr></th>
|
|
<td>(24)</td>
|
|
<td>89,380</td>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>0</td>
|
|
<td>3,016</td>
|
|
<td>2</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><abbr title="Massachusetts">MA</abbr></th>
|
|
<td>(25)</td>
|
|
<td>167,359</td>
|
|
<td>114.39</td>
|
|
<td>114.39</td>
|
|
<td>180.06</td>
|
|
<td>1</td>
|
|
<td>162,740</td>
|
|
<td>2</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><abbr title="Michigan">MI</abbr></th>
|
|
<td>(26)</td>
|
|
<td>211,615</td>
|
|
<td>14.00</td>
|
|
<td>14.00</td>
|
|
<td>28.00</td>
|
|
<td>1</td>
|
|
<td>210,340</td>
|
|
<td>1</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><abbr title="Minnesota">MN</abbr></th>
|
|
<td>(27)</td>
|
|
<td>66,331</td>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>81.00</td>
|
|
<td>111.00</td>
|
|
<td>0</td>
|
|
<td>38,146</td>
|
|
<td>1</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><abbr title="Mississippi">MS</abbr></th>
|
|
<td>(28)</td>
|
|
<td>128,800</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>2</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><abbr title="Missouri">MO</abbr></th>
|
|
<td>(29)</td>
|
|
<td>113,990</td>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>0</td>
|
|
<td>8,486</td>
|
|
<td>2</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><abbr title="Montana">MT</abbr></th>
|
|
<td>(30)</td>
|
|
<td>14,324</td>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>1</td>
|
|
<td>924</td>
|
|
<td>2</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><abbr title="Nebraska">NE</abbr></th>
|
|
<td>(31)</td>
|
|
<td>21,572</td>
|
|
<td>8.00</td>
|
|
<td>8.00</td>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>0</td>
|
|
<td>5,884</td>
|
|
<td>2</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><abbr title="Nevada">NV</abbr></th>
|
|
<td>(32)</td>
|
|
<td>27,403</td>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>c</td>
|
|
<td>d</td>
|
|
<td>1</td>
|
|
<td>7,250</td>
|
|
<td>2</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><abbr title="New Hampshire">NH</abbr></th>
|
|
<td>(33)</td>
|
|
<td>12,101</td>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>27.00</td>
|
|
<td>21.00</td>
|
|
<td>0</td>
|
|
<td>6,780</td>
|
|
<td>1</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><abbr title="New Jersey">NJ</abbr></th>
|
|
<td>(34)</td>
|
|
<td>147,817</td>
|
|
<td>31.25</td>
|
|
<td>31.25</td>
|
|
<td>25.36</td>
|
|
<td>1</td>
|
|
<td>143,670</td>
|
|
<td>2</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><abbr title="New Mexico">NM</abbr></th>
|
|
<td>(35)</td>
|
|
<td>47,922</td>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>0</td>
|
|
<td>199</td>
|
|
<td>2</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><abbr title="New York">NY</abbr></th>
|
|
<td>(36)</td>
|
|
<td>623,307</td>
|
|
<td>23.00</td>
|
|
<td>87.00</td>
|
|
<td>104.00</td>
|
|
<td>0</td>
|
|
<td>605,850</td>
|
|
<td>1</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><abbr title="North Carolina">NC</abbr></th>
|
|
<td>(37)</td>
|
|
<td>192,091</td>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>0</td>
|
|
<td>23,499</td>
|
|
<td>2</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><abbr title="North Dakota">ND</abbr></th>
|
|
<td>(38)</td>
|
|
<td>8,182</td>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>0</td>
|
|
<td>465</td>
|
|
<td>2</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><abbr title="Ohio">OH</abbr></th>
|
|
<td>(39)</td>
|
|
<td>242,696</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>0</td>
|
|
<td>2,546</td>
|
|
<td>2</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><abbr title="Oklahoma">OK</abbr></th>
|
|
<td>(40)</td>
|
|
<td>73,108</td>
|
|
<td>53.00</td>
|
|
<td>53.00</td>
|
|
<td>106.00</td>
|
|
<td>0</td>
|
|
<td>70,972</td>
|
|
<td>1</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><abbr title="Oregon">OR</abbr></th>
|
|
<td>(41)</td>
|
|
<td>54,795</td>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>1.70</td>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>0</td>
|
|
<td>24,009</td>
|
|
<td>2</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><abbr title="Pennsylvania">PA</abbr></th>
|
|
<td>(42)</td>
|
|
<td>295,904</td>
|
|
<td>27.40</td>
|
|
<td>27.40</td>
|
|
<td>43.70</td>
|
|
<td>1</td>
|
|
<td>284,720</td>
|
|
<td>2</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><abbr title="Rhode Island">RI</abbr></th>
|
|
<td>(44)</td>
|
|
<td>28,697</td>
|
|
<td>64.35</td>
|
|
<td>64.35</td>
|
|
<td>120.50</td>
|
|
<td>1</td>
|
|
<td>27,880</td>
|
|
<td>2</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><abbr title="South Carolina">SC</abbr></th>
|
|
<td>(45)</td>
|
|
<td>106,835</td>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>0</td>
|
|
<td>3,382</td>
|
|
<td>2</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><abbr title="South Dakota">SD</abbr></th>
|
|
<td>(46)</td>
|
|
<td>12,819</td>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>15.00</td>
|
|
<td>15.00</td>
|
|
<td>0</td>
|
|
<td>3,601</td>
|
|
<td>1</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><abbr title="Tennessee">TN</abbr></th>
|
|
<td>(47)</td>
|
|
<td>163,196</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>2</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><abbr title="Texas">TX</abbr></th>
|
|
<td>(48)</td>
|
|
<td>420,279</td>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>0</td>
|
|
<td>6,441</td>
|
|
<td>2</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><abbr title="Utah">UT</abbr></th>
|
|
<td>(49)</td>
|
|
<td>20,654</td>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>1</td>
|
|
<td>1,540</td>
|
|
<td>1</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><abbr title="Vermont">VT</abbr></th>
|
|
<td>(50)</td>
|
|
<td>12,678</td>
|
|
<td>59.04</td>
|
|
<td>59.04</td>
|
|
<td>110.88</td>
|
|
<td>1</td>
|
|
<td>12,730</td>
|
|
<td>2</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><abbr title="Virginia">VA</abbr></th>
|
|
<td>(51)</td>
|
|
<td>133,156</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>0</td>
|
|
<td>6,705</td>
|
|
<td>2</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><abbr title="Washington">WA</abbr></th>
|
|
<td>(53)</td>
|
|
<td>105,074</td>
|
|
<td>25.90</td>
|
|
<td>25.90</td>
|
|
<td>19.90</td>
|
|
<td>1</td>
|
|
<td>97,850</td>
|
|
<td>1</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><abbr title="West Virginia">WV</abbr></th>
|
|
<td>(54)</td>
|
|
<td>73,006</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>2</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><abbr title="Wisconsin">WI</abbr></th>
|
|
<td>(55)</td>
|
|
<td>86,053</td>
|
|
<td>83.78</td>
|
|
<td>83.78</td>
|
|
<td>132.05</td>
|
|
<td>0</td>
|
|
<td>90,299</td>
|
|
<td>1</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><abbr title="Wyoming">WY</abbr></th>
|
|
<td>(56)</td>
|
|
<td>5,841</td>
|
|
<td>a</td>
|
|
<td>9.90</td>
|
|
<td>25.12</td>
|
|
<td>0</td>
|
|
<td>2,749</td>
|
|
<td>1</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tbody>
|
|
<tfoot>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="firstNote" colspan="9">SOURCE: Unless otherwise noted, data for this table are derived from <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> (2004).</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="note" colspan="9">NOTES: <abbr>FIPS</abbr> = Federal Information Processing Standard. </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="note" colspan="9">. . . indicates a state that offers no optional state supplements regardless of one's living arrangement.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="note" colspan="9">a. None for those states that offer a state <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> supplement, but not to persons living independently.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="note" colspan="9">b. See the text. "<abbr class="spell">SSR</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">PHUS</abbr>" means <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> data employed exclusively; "rule" means administrative data on federal payment combined with "low" and "high" estimates of state-administered state supplement.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="note" colspan="9">c. None, if younger than age 65; $36.40 otherwise.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="lastNote" colspan="9">d. None, if neither person is aged 65 or older.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tfoot>
|
|
</table>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<p>The state supplements pose two problems for this analysis. First, in many instances the provision is not universal and compensates for some special need. Information on receipt of such payments or the benefits they support is not readily available. Second, if state-administered, such benefits do not appear in the <abbr class="spell">SSR</abbr>, yet it is likely that if reported at all they are reported as <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> in response to <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> interviewers. Thus in comparing <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> administrative data with <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> reports for states with state-administered supplements, it is essential to recognize that <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> reports may exceed amounts known to <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> because of the supplements. Moreover, it is possible for persons to retain eligibility for a state supplement even when income is too high for federal benefit receipt.</p>
|
|
<p>In this article, the state supplements are addressed in the following way. First, for individuals without an <abbr class="spell">SER</abbr> match, we assume state supplements are included in what is identified in the sum of <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">OASDI</abbr> income. (As discussed in the text, we work with the sum of <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">OASDI</abbr> to allow for misidentification of the source of benefits.) For individuals with an <abbr class="spell">SER</abbr> match, we concentrate on "universal" supplements, which we define as additions to cash benefits unrelated to special needs. We ignore supplements that are paid for special needs and unavailable to <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients generally. Second, we differentiate between universal state supplements administered by <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> and those administered by states. Federally administered payments are recorded in the <abbr class="spell">SSR</abbr> and thus are covered by the procedures outlined in Table A-1. Third, in cases in which state supplements are state-administered, we develop restrictive and inclusive estimates of the amounts involved and impute these figures to administrative <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> payment totals. The restrictive estimate assumes that the state supplement is received only in the months during the year in which a federal benefit is paid. The inclusive estimate assumes the state benefit is received in all months of any year in which a federal benefit is paid in any month. Thus we are assuming in the restrictive-estimate case that any reduction in benefit amount that is the result of other income is taken from the federal payment, not the state supplement, and in the high-benefit case we assume that state eligibility continues for a longer period than federal benefit eligibility. There is little practical difference between the two because of the prevalence of application of these "special rule" state payments.</p>
|
|
<h2 id="atC">Appendix C: Propensity Functions for Sample Reweighting</h2>
|
|
<p><i><a href="#arC">Return to first in-text reference.</a></i></p>
|
|
<p>This appendix reports parameter estimates for the logistic functions used for reweighting 2003 <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">ASEC</abbr> data for individuals in households meeting the administrative match criterion to account for the incomplete match. As discussed in the text, each person in the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> who resides in a family in which at least one person was successfully matched to administrative data is included in the subsample. The log odds of this designation were estimated using a standard logit function and data for all individuals in the person's age class. The logit results were then translated into a point estimate of the probability of family match—"response." The inverse of this probability was then multiplied by the original <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> person weight to give a revised weight, adjusted for nonresponse.</p>
|
|
<h3>Variables</h3>
|
|
<p>All models are similarly constituted, using variables described in Table C-1 below.</p>
|
|
<div class="table" id="tableC1">
|
|
<table class="textTable">
|
|
<caption><span class="tableNumber">Table C-1. </span>Propensity function variables</caption>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:10em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:8em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:40em"></colgroup>
|
|
<thead>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stubHeading" scope="col">Variable name</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Type</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Description</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</thead>
|
|
<tbody>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="rowgroup">Independent</th>
|
|
<td colspan="2"></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row"><abbr class="spell">PSERGRP</abbr></th>
|
|
<td>Binary</td>
|
|
<td>Individual has at least one family member with a <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">SER</abbr> match.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="rowgroup">Dependent</th>
|
|
<td colspan="2"></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row"><abbr class="spell">AAGE</abbr></th>
|
|
<td>Continuous</td>
|
|
<td>Individual's age (in years) at the time of their <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> interview.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row"><abbr class="spell">AAGESQB</abbr></th>
|
|
<td>Continuous</td>
|
|
<td>Equal to <abbr class="spell">AAGE</abbr>2.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row"><abbr class="spell">AAGESQC</abbr></th>
|
|
<td>Continuous</td>
|
|
<td>Equal to <abbr class="spell">AAGE</abbr>3.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row"><abbr class="spell">AAGE</abbr>TEEN</th>
|
|
<td>Binary</td>
|
|
<td>Individual is 16 or 17 years of age.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row"><abbr class="spell">FAMREF</abbr></th>
|
|
<td>Binary</td>
|
|
<td>Individual is a family reference person.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">HISPANIC</th>
|
|
<td>Binary</td>
|
|
<td>Individual is Hispanic.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">MALE<abbr class="spell">RRT</abbr></th>
|
|
<td>Binary</td>
|
|
<td>Individual is male.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">MARRIED</th>
|
|
<td>Binary</td>
|
|
<td>Individual is married.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">METRO</th>
|
|
<td>Binary</td>
|
|
<td>Individual lives in a metropolitan statistical area (<abbr class="spell">MSA</abbr>).</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">METRO<abbr class="spell">CC</abbr></th>
|
|
<td>Binary</td>
|
|
<td>Individual resides in a <abbr class="spell">MSA</abbr> central city.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">MINORITT</th>
|
|
<td>Binary</td>
|
|
<td>Individual is nonwhite.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">MULT<abbr class="spell">FAMH</abbr></th>
|
|
<td>Binary</td>
|
|
<td>Individual lives in a multi-family household.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">NEG<abbr class="spell">INC</abbr></th>
|
|
<td>Binary</td>
|
|
<td>Individual has negative family total income.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row"><abbr class="spell">P</abbr>RATIO</th>
|
|
<td>Continuous</td>
|
|
<td>Ratio of individual's family total income to his or her applicable family poverty threshold. If negative, set to zero.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row"><abbr class="spell">P</abbr>RATIO2</th>
|
|
<td>Continuous</td>
|
|
<td>If <abbr class="spell">P</abbr>RATIO > 2, <abbr class="spell">P</abbr>RATIO2 = <abbr class="spell">P</abbr>RATIO-2, otherwise 0.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row"><abbr class="spell">P</abbr>ZERO<abbr class="spell">INC</abbr></th>
|
|
<td>Binary</td>
|
|
<td>Individual has no family income.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">SINGLE</th>
|
|
<td>Binary</td>
|
|
<td>Individual belongs to a one-person family, living alone in household.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">UNREL<abbr class="spell">OTH</abbr></th>
|
|
<td>Binary</td>
|
|
<td>Individual belongs to a one-person family, but shares a household with nonrelatives.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tbody>
|
|
<tfoot>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="firstNote" colspan="3">SOURCE: Authors' calculations using 2003 <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">ASEC</abbr> data matched to administrative records.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="lastNote" colspan="3">NOTE: For binary variables, the description identifies circumstance when indicator = 1; otherwise, the indicator value is 0.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tfoot>
|
|
</table>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<h3>Parameter Estimates</h3>
|
|
<p>The propensity function was estimated separately for each of the three age groups. In each case, the dependent variable is the occurrence of an <abbr class="spell">SER</abbr> match for at least one person in the respondent's family (Table C-2).</p>
|
|
<div class="table" id="tableC2">
|
|
<table>
|
|
<caption><span class="tableNumber">Table C-2. </span>Parameter estimates: Logistic response propensity function, 2002</caption>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:12em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="2" style="width:8em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="2" style="width:8em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="2" style="width:8em"></colgroup>
|
|
<thead>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stubHeading" rowspan="2" scope="colgroup">Variable</th>
|
|
<th class="spanner" colspan="2" scope="colgroup">Children (aged <span class="nobr">0–17</span>)</th>
|
|
<th class="spanner" colspan="2" scope="colgroup">Working-age adults (aged <span class="nobr">18–64</span>)</th>
|
|
<th class="spanner" colspan="2" scope="colgroup">Elderly (aged 65 or older)</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th scope="col">Coefficient</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Standard error</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Coefficient</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Standard error</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Coefficient</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Standard error</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</thead>
|
|
<tbody>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">Intercept</th>
|
|
<td>3.5171</td>
|
|
<td>0.0804</td>
|
|
<td>0.4972</td>
|
|
<td>0.2390</td>
|
|
<td>1.7056</td>
|
|
<td>0.2542</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><abbr class="spell">AAGE</abbr></th>
|
|
<td>-0.0450</td>
|
|
<td>0.0046</td>
|
|
<td>0.1372</td>
|
|
<td>0.0199</td>
|
|
<td>-0.0056</td>
|
|
<td>0.0031</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><abbr class="spell">AAGESQB</abbr></th>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>-0.0028</td>
|
|
<td>0.0005</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><abbr class="spell">AAGESQC</abbr></th>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>0.0000</td>
|
|
<td>0.0000</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><abbr class="spell">AAGE</abbr>TEEN</th>
|
|
<td>-0.6048</td>
|
|
<td>0.0563</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">FAM<abbr class="spell">REF</abbr></th>
|
|
<td>-0.5565</td>
|
|
<td>0.2203</td>
|
|
<td>0.1236</td>
|
|
<td>0.0192</td>
|
|
<td>-0.0958</td>
|
|
<td>0.0408</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">HISPANIC</th>
|
|
<td>-0.3909</td>
|
|
<td>0.0457</td>
|
|
<td>-0.4046</td>
|
|
<td>0.0217</td>
|
|
<td>-0.1009</td>
|
|
<td>0.0596</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">MALE<abbr class="spell">RRT</abbr></th>
|
|
<td>-0.0407</td>
|
|
<td>0.0360</td>
|
|
<td>-0.0788</td>
|
|
<td>0.0157</td>
|
|
<td>0.1061</td>
|
|
<td>0.0353</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">MARRIED</th>
|
|
<td>-0.6696</td>
|
|
<td>0.4355</td>
|
|
<td>0.1427</td>
|
|
<td>0.0234</td>
|
|
<td>-0.4649</td>
|
|
<td>0.0544</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">METRO</th>
|
|
<td>-0.3121</td>
|
|
<td>0.0431</td>
|
|
<td>-0.3540</td>
|
|
<td>0.0183</td>
|
|
<td>-0.3115</td>
|
|
<td>0.0363</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">METRO<abbr class="spell">CC</abbr></th>
|
|
<td>-0.0918</td>
|
|
<td>0.0464</td>
|
|
<td>0.0349</td>
|
|
<td>0.0200</td>
|
|
<td>-0.0092</td>
|
|
<td>0.0428</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">MINORITT</th>
|
|
<td>-0.1427</td>
|
|
<td>0.0458</td>
|
|
<td>0.0869</td>
|
|
<td>0.0208</td>
|
|
<td>0.5031</td>
|
|
<td>0.0467</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">MULT<abbr class="spell">FAMH</abbr></th>
|
|
<td>0.2026</td>
|
|
<td>0.0779</td>
|
|
<td>0.1590</td>
|
|
<td>0.0493</td>
|
|
<td>0.4175</td>
|
|
<td>0.2362</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">NEG<abbr class="spell">INC</abbr></th>
|
|
<td>-0.3280</td>
|
|
<td>0.4332</td>
|
|
<td>-0.7908</td>
|
|
<td>0.1687</td>
|
|
<td>-0.5033</td>
|
|
<td>0.5822</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><abbr class="spell">P</abbr>RATIO</th>
|
|
<td>0.2002</td>
|
|
<td>0.0359</td>
|
|
<td>-0.0281</td>
|
|
<td>0.0188</td>
|
|
<td>0.1003</td>
|
|
<td>0.0399</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><abbr class="spell">P</abbr>RATIO2</th>
|
|
<td>-0.2046</td>
|
|
<td>0.0380</td>
|
|
<td>0.0076</td>
|
|
<td>0.0193</td>
|
|
<td>-0.0933</td>
|
|
<td>0.0415</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row"><abbr class="spell">P</abbr>ZERO<abbr class="spell">INC</abbr></th>
|
|
<td>-0.5989</td>
|
|
<td>0.1423</td>
|
|
<td>-0.6986</td>
|
|
<td>0.0617</td>
|
|
<td>0.0625</td>
|
|
<td>0.2001</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">SINGLE</th>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>-1.0263</td>
|
|
<td>0.0305</td>
|
|
<td>-0.5415</td>
|
|
<td>0.0595</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">UNREL<abbr class="spell">OTH</abbr></th>
|
|
<td>-0.8095</td>
|
|
<td>0.2883</td>
|
|
<td>-1.4198</td>
|
|
<td>0.0522</td>
|
|
<td>-1.0500</td>
|
|
<td>0.2559</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr class="shaded">
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">Observation count</th>
|
|
<td colspan="2">66,016</td>
|
|
<td colspan="2">129,460</td>
|
|
<td colspan="2">20,384</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr class="shaded">
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">Mean propensity estimate</th>
|
|
<td colspan="2">0.95</td>
|
|
<td colspan="2">0.83</td>
|
|
<td colspan="2">0.71</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tbody>
|
|
<tfoot>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="firstNote" colspan="7">SOURCE: Authors' calculations using 2003 <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">ASEC</abbr> data matched to administrative records.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="lastNote" colspan="7">NOTE: . . . = not applicable.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tfoot>
|
|
</table>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<div id="notes">
|
|
<h2>Notes</h2>
|
|
<p> <a href="#mt1" id="mn1">1</a> Throughout this article, the term "state" includes the District of Columbia.</p>
|
|
<p> <a href="#mt2" id="mn2">2</a> To the extent that the Consumer Price Index is biased upward, indexation has led to slight growth in the real value of the <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> payment. See Gordon (2006).</p>
|
|
<p> <a href="#mt3" id="mn3">3</a> See Census Bureau (2006) for a detailed <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> description.</p>
|
|
<p> <a href="#mt4" id="mn4">4</a> The <abbr class="spell">SER</abbr> also includes earnings data. However, annual earnings reports in the <abbr class="spell">SER</abbr> are capped at the <abbr>FICA</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">SECA</abbr> taxable maximum ($84,900 in 2002).</p>
|
|
<p> <a href="#mt5" id="mn5">5</a> Information on retirement plan contributions in the <abbr class="spell">DER</abbr> corresponds to codes "d" through "h" in box 13 on the <span class="nobr">W-2</span> Form: 401(k); SiMPLE; 403(b); 408(k) and (6); SEP; 457(b); and 501(c), (18), and (D) plans (Smith, Johnson, and Muller 2004, 8). See Abowd and Stinson (2005, 10) for a more detailed discussion on elements of gross compensation (for example, pretax health insurance premiums paid by the employee) that do not appear in the <abbr class="spell">DER</abbr>.</p>
|
|
<p> <a href="#mt6" id="mn6">6</a> See Sears and Rupp (2003) for an investigation of the divergence between payment eligibility and payment receipt and the consequence for assessment of errors in <abbr class="spell">OASDI</abbr> reporting in the Survey of Income and Program Participation (<abbr>SIPP</abbr>). Koenig (2003) analyzes <abbr class="spell">OASDI</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> underreporting in the March 1997 <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>, but could at the time use only information on <abbr class="spell">OASDI</abbr> entitlement, not payments (as in the <abbr class="spell">PHUS</abbr>) for comparison with <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> reports.</p>
|
|
<p> <a href="#mt7" id="mn7">7</a> Koenig (2003, 131) reports linking 75 percent of March 1997 <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> observations (for persons aged 15 or older) to <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> administrative data.</p>
|
|
<p> <a href="#mt8" id="mn8">8</a> Burkhauser, Feng, and Jenkins (2007) discuss problems created by top-coding for analysis of trends at the top end of the earnings distribution.</p>
|
|
<p> <a href="#mt9" id="mn9">9</a> Koenig (2003, 132) reports that 31.2 percent of known <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients for 1996 (as reported in the 1997 March <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>) do not report <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> receipt in the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>. Table 4 indicates that our result for 2002 is 40 percent. The Koenig estimate is weighted; ours is not because we are not interested at this point in statistical inference.</p>
|
|
<p><a href="#mt10" id="mn10">10</a> Huynh, Rupp, and Sears (2002) report similar problems in the <abbr>SIPP</abbr>.</p>
|
|
<p><a href="#mt11" id="mn11">11</a> It is possible to imagine scenarios in which persons residing in a state with a state-administered supplement would be missing an <abbr class="spell">SSR</abbr> entry and therefore would not receive either the restrictive or inclusive imputation, yet might report such amounts in the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">ASEC</abbr>. Such cases, if they exist, are certain to be rare.</p>
|
|
<p><a href="#mt12" id="mn12">12</a> In fact, the adjustments are in many cases quite large. In both the restrictive and inclusive cases, for roughly 60 percent of individuals for whom some adjustment was made the absolute value of the total income adjustment exceeded $2,000. The restrictive adjustment procedure affects more observations than does the inclusive alternative. These details are available on request from the authors.</p>
|
|
<p><a href="#mt13" id="mn13">13</a> We have calculated all of the estimates cited later using subsample (c) instead of (a), and none of the outcomes reported is qualitatively dependent on choice of sample. These results are available from the authors.</p>
|
|
<p><a href="#mt14" id="mn14">14</a> "We" here includes our colleagues Paul Davies and the late Jeff Shapiro, without whose assistance this table could not have been constructed.</p>
|
|
<p><a href="#mt15" id="mn15">15</a> See <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> (2002). The methodology for <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr>'s estimate, based in part on an unidentified "1996 study," is not detailed.</p>
|
|
<p><a href="#mt16" id="mn16">16</a> Practices vary. The half-of-median standard generally applies to income before taxes; the European Union uses 60 percent of median disposable income (Eurostat 2007, 36).</p>
|
|
<p><a href="#mt17" id="mn17">17</a> In principle, states have the option of terminating these programs. However, if any state does terminate its <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> supplement program it loses eligibility for reimbursement for the federal share of Medicaid costs. At minimum, states are required to sustain either nominal payment levels or aggregate expenditure levels in order to retain Medicaid reimbursement. See Committee on Ways and Means (2004, <span class="nobr">3–25).</span></p>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<div id="references">
|
|
<h2>References</h2>
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|
<p>Abowd, John M., and Martha H. Stinson. 2005. Estimating measurement error in <abbr>SIPP</abbr> annual job earnings: A comparison of Census survey and administrative data. Unpublished manuscript, Cornell University.</p>
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|
<p>Blank, Rebecca M. 2008. How to improve poverty measurement in the United States. <i>Journal of Policy Analysis and Management</i> 27(2): <span class="nobr">233–254.</span></p>
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|
<p>Bound, John, Charlie Brown, and Nancy Mathiowetz. 2001. Measurement error in survey data. In <i>Handbook of Econometrics, </i>Volume 5, J. Heckman and E. Leamer, eds., <span class="nobr">3705–3843.</span> Amsterdam, The Netherlands: Elsevier.</p>
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|
<p>Burkhauser, Richard V., Shuaizhang Feng, and Stephen P. Jenkins. 2007. Using the P90/P10 index to measure <abbr>U.S.</abbr> inequality trends with Current Population Survey data: A view from inside the Census Bureau vaults. <abbr class="spell">IZA</abbr> Discussion Paper <abbr title="number">No.</abbr> 2839. Bonn, Germany: Institute for the Study of Labor (<abbr class="spell">IZA</abbr>).</p>
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|
<p>Census Bureau. 2003. Current Population Survey: Annual Social and Economic Supplement. Washington, <abbr class="spell">DC</abbr>: Census Bureau. Available at <a href="https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/cps/techdocs/cpsmar03.pdf">www.census.gov/apsd/techdoc/CPS/CPSmar03.pdf</a>.</p>
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|
<p>———. 2006. Current Population Survey design and methodology. Technical Paper <abbr title="number">No.</abbr> 66. Washington, <abbr class="spell">DC</abbr>: Census Bureau.</p>
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<p>———. 2007. The effect of taxes and transfers on income and poverty in the United States: 2005. Current Population Reports, <span class="nobr">P60-232.</span> Washington, <abbr class="spell">DC</abbr>: Census Bureau.</p>
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|
<p>Citro, Constance F., and Robert T. Michael. 1995. <i>Measuring poverty</i>. Washington, <abbr class="spell">DC</abbr>: National Academy Press.</p>
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<p>Committee on Ways and Means. 2004. <i>2004 Green Book: Background material and data on the programs within the jurisdiction of the Committee on Ways and Means</i>. Washington, <abbr class="spell">DC</abbr>: Government Printing Office, <span class="nobr">3–25.</span></p>
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<p>Dahl, Molly, Thomas DeLeire, and Jonathan Schwabish. 2008. Year-to-year variability in workers' earnings and in household incomes: Estimates from administrative data. Unpublished mimeo.</p>
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<p>Dalaker, Joe. 2005. <i>Alternative poverty estimates in the United States: 2003</i>. Current Population Reports, <span class="nobr">P60-227.</span> Washington, <abbr class="spell">DC</abbr>: Census Bureau.</p>
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<p>DeNavas-Walt, Carman, Bernadette Proctor, and Jessica Smith. 2007. <i>Income, poverty, and health insurance coverage in the United States: 2006</i>. Current Population Reports, <span class="nobr">P60-233.</span> Washington, <abbr class="spell">DC</abbr>: Census Bureau. Available at <a href="https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2007/demo/p60-233.html">www.census.gov/prod/2007pubs/p60-233.pdf</a>.</p>
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|
<p>Eurostat. 2007. <i>The social situation in the European Union, <span class="nobr">2005–2006:</span> Overview</i>. Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities.</p>
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<p>Fisher, T. Lynn. 2005. Measurement of reliance on Social Security benefits. Paper presented at the 2005 Federal Committee on Statistical Methodology Research Conference, Arlington, <abbr title="Virginia">VA</abbr> <span class="nobr">(November 14–16).</span></p>
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<p>Folsom, Ralph E. 1991. Exponential and logistic weight adjustments for sampling and nonresponse error reduction. Proceedings of the American Statistical Association, Social Statistics Section. Alexandria, <abbr title="Virginia">VA</abbr>: American Statistical Association, <span class="nobr">197–201.</span></p>
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<p>Förster, Michael, and Marco Mira d'Ecole. 2005. <i>Income distribution and poverty in <abbr class="spell">OECD</abbr> countries in the second half of the 1990s</i>. <abbr class="spell">OECD</abbr> Social, Employment, and Migration Working Papers <abbr title="number">No.</abbr> 22. Paris, France: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.</p>
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<p>Gordon, Robert J. 2006. The Boskin Commission report: A retrospective one decade later. Working Paper <abbr title="number">No.</abbr> 12311. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.</p>
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<p>Groves, Robert M., and Mick P. Couper. 1998. <i>Nonresponse in household interview surveys</i>. New York, <abbr title="New York">NY</abbr>: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.</p>
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<p>Herzog, Thomas N., Fritz J. Scheuren, and William E. Winkler. 2007. <i>Data quality and record linkage techniques</i>. New York, <abbr title="New York">NY</abbr>: Springer.</p>
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<p>Huynh, Minh, Kalman Rupp, and James Sears. 2002. The assessment of Survey of Income and Program Participation (<abbr>SIPP</abbr>) data using longitudinal administrative records. <abbr>SIPP</abbr> Working Paper <abbr title="number">No.</abbr> 238. Washington, <abbr class="spell">DC</abbr>: Census Bureau.</p>
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<p>Iannacchione, Vincent G. 1999. Location and Response Propensity Modeling for the 1995 National Survey of Family Growth. <i>1998 Proceedings of the American Statistical Association, Survey Research Methods Section</i>. Alexandria, <abbr title="Virginia">VA</abbr>: American Statistical Association, <span class="nobr">523–528.</span></p>
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<p>Iceland, John. 2005. <i>Experimental poverty measures</i>. Washington, <abbr class="spell">DC</abbr>: National Academies Press.</p>
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<p>Koenig, Melissa L. 2003. An assessment of the Current Population Survey and the Survey of Income and Program Participation using Social Security Administrative data. Paper presented at the 2003 Federal Committee on Statistical Methodology Research Conference, Arlington, <abbr title="Virginia">VA</abbr> <span class="nobr">(November 17–19).</span></p>
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<p>Koenig, Melissa, and Kalman Rupp. 2004. <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients in households and families with multiple recipients: Prevalence and poverty outcomes. <i>Social Security Bulletin</i> 65(2): <span class="nobr">14–27.</span></p>
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<p>Lehtonen, Risto, and Erkki Pahkinen. 2004. <i>Practical methods for design and analysis of complex surveys</i>. London, England: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.</p>
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<p>Meyer, Bruce D., and James X. Sullivan. 2007. Reporting bias in studies of the Food Stamp Program. The Harris School Working Paper Series <abbr title="number">No.</abbr> 08.01. Chicago, <abbr title="Illinois">IL</abbr>: The Harris School of Public Policy Studies at the University of Chicago.</p>
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<p>Pedace, Roberto, and Nancy Bates. 2000. Using administrative records to assess earnings reporting error in the Survey of Income and Program Participation. <i>Journal of Economic and Social Measurement</i> 26(3-4): <span class="nobr">173–192.</span></p>
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<p>Proctor, Bernadette D., and Joseph Dalaker. 2003. <i>Poverty in the United States: 2002</i>. Current Population Reports, <span class="nobr">P60-222.</span> Washington, <abbr class="spell">DC</abbr>: Government Printing Office.</p>
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<p>Roemer, Marc. 2000. Assessing the quality of the March <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> and <abbr>SIPP</abbr> income estimates, <span class="nobr">1990–1996.</span> Staff Papers on Income, Housing and Household Economics Statistics Division. Washington, <abbr class="spell">DC</abbr>: Census Bureau.</p>
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<p>———. 2002. Using administrative earnings records to assess wage data quality in the March Current Population Survey and the Survey of Income and Program Participation. Technical Paper <span class="nobr">TP-2002-22,</span> <abbr class="spell">LEHD</abbr>. Washington, <abbr class="spell">DC</abbr>: Census Bureau.</p>
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<p>Sears, James, and Kalman Rupp. 2003. Exploring Social Security payment history matched with the Survey of Income and Program Participation. Paper presented at the 2003 Federal Committee on Statistical Methodology Research Conference, Arlington, <abbr title="Virginia">VA</abbr> <span class="nobr">(November 17–19).</span></p>
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<p>Smith, Karen E., Richard W. Johnson, and Leslie A. Muller. 2004. <i>Deferring income in employer-sponsored retirement plans: The dynamics of participant contributions</i>. Washington, <abbr class="spell">DC</abbr>: Urban Institute.</p>
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<p>[<abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr>] Social Security Administration. 2002. <i>Service to the homeless: Report to the House and Senate Appropriations Committees on increasing access and services to <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> benefits by the homeless</i>. Baltimore, <abbr title="Maryland">MD</abbr>: <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr>.</p>
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<p>———. 2003. <i><abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> annual statistical report, 2002</i>. Baltimore, <abbr title="Maryland">MD</abbr>: <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr>.</p>
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<p>———. 2004. <i>State assistance programs for <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients, January 2002</i>. Baltimore, <abbr title="Maryland">MD</abbr>: <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr>.</p>
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<p>———. 2007. <i><abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> annual statistical report, 2005</i>. Baltimore, <abbr title="Maryland">MD</abbr>: <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr>.</p>
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<p>Trenkamp, Brad, and Michael Wiseman. 2007. Food Stamps and Supplemental Security Income. <i>Social Security Bulletin</i> 67(4): <span class="nobr">71–87.</span></p>
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<p>Weinberg, Daniel H. 2005. Alternative measures of income poverty and the anti-poverty effects of taxes and transfers. Center for Economic Studies Research Paper, <abbr class="spell">CES</abbr> <span class="nobr">05-08.</span> Washington, <abbr class="spell">DC</abbr>: Census Bureau.</p>
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|
<p>———. 2006. Measuring poverty in the United States: History and current issues. Center for Economic Studies Research Paper, <abbr class="spell">CES</abbr> <span class="nobr">06-11.</span> Washington, <abbr class="spell">DC</abbr>: Census Bureau.</p>
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<p>Zaidi, Asghar, and Tania Burchardt. 2005. Comparing incomes when needs differ: Equivalization for the extra costs of disability in the U.K. <i>The Review of Income and Wealth</i> 51(1): <span class="nobr">89–114.</span></p>
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