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<h1 itemprop="headline">Distributional Effects of Accelerating and Extending the Increase in the Full Retirement Age</h1>
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<div id="hByline">by <span itemprop="author">Glenn R. Springstead</span><br>Policy Brief <abbr title="Number">No.</abbr> 2011-01 (released January 2011)</div>
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<div id="breadcrumbs" itemscope itemtype="http://schema.org/BreadcrumbList">You are here: <span itemprop="itemListElement" itemscope itemtype="http://schema.org/ListItem"><a href="/" itemprop="item"><span itemprop="name">Social Security Administration</span></a><meta itemprop="position" content="1" /></span> > <span itemprop="itemListElement" itemscope itemtype="http://schema.org/ListItem"><a href="/policy/index.html" itemprop="item"><span itemprop="name">Research, Statistics & Policy Analysis</span></a><meta itemprop="position" content="2" /></span> > <span itemprop="itemListElement" itemscope itemtype="http://schema.org/ListItem"><a href="/policy/research.html?type=Policy%20Brief" itemprop="item"><span itemprop="name">Policy Briefs</span></a><meta itemprop="position" content="3" /></span></div>
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<div id="relatedInline">
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<h4>Related Content</h4>
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<div class="rcItems">
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<p>Policy Option Projections: <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/retirement-age.html">Retirement Age Changes</a></p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="introBox">
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<p id="synopsis" itemprop="description">This policy brief compares two options set forth by the Social Security Advisory Board to increase the full retirement age (<abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr>), the age at which claimants may receive unreduced Social Security <span class="nobr">old-age</span> benefits. One option would raise the <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> from the current target of 67 years to 68 years; the other would raise the <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> to 70 years. The brief examines the effects of both options on the level of benefits of Social Security beneficiaries aged 62 or older in 2070 using Modeling Income in the Near Term (<abbr>MINT</abbr>) projections, and on Trust Fund solvency using estimates from the Social Security Administration's Office of the Chief Actuary. The brief finds that both options would reduce benefits, improve solvency, and slightly increase the poverty rate. Within each option, effects on benefits are relatively uniform across beneficiary characteristics, although some surviving spouse and disabled beneficiaries would be shielded from benefit reductions.</p>
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<hr />
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<div class="eightypercent">
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<p>Glenn R. Springstead is with <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr>'s Office of Retirement Policy, Office of Policy Analysis. Questions about the analysis should be directed to the author at <span class="nobr">(202) 358-6234.</span></p>
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<p><i>Acknowledgments</i>: The author thanks David Weaver, Mark Sarney, Sven Sinclair, Dena Berglund, Irena Dushi, David Pattison, Kwaku Abrokwah, and Amy Shuart for their helpful comments and suggestions.</p>
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<p>The findings and conclusions presented in this brief are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of the Social Security Administration.</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<h2>Summary</h2>
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<div class="abbrtable">
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<table role="presentation">
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<caption>Selected Abbreviations</caption>
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<tr>
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<td><abbr class="spell">EEA</abbr></td>
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<td>early eligibility age</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td><abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr></td>
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<td>full retirement age</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td><abbr class="spell">PIA</abbr></td>
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<td>primary insurance amount</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td><abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr></td>
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<td>Social Security Administration</td>
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</tr>
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</table>
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</div>
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<p>This policy brief analyzes the distributional effects of increasing Social Security's full retirement age (<abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr>), the age at which Social Security pays full unreduced benefits. Under current law, the <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> is 66 years for newly eligible beneficiaries and is scheduled to increase incrementally to 67 years between 2017 and 2022. This brief compares the effects of two <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> options studied by the Social Security Advisory Board. Both options would set an earlier date by which the <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> is increased to 67 years. The first option would subsequently increase the <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> to 68 years (<abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 68), and the second option would subsequently increase the <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> to 70 years (<abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 70).<sup><a href="#mn1" id="mt1">1</a></sup> The distributional effects were estimated using data from the Modeling Income in the Near Term (<abbr>MINT</abbr>) microsimulation model. <abbr>MINT</abbr>'s comparison of projected benefits under current law with those under each option is static—that is, it does not assume any changes in retirement behavior caused by either option's effect on benefits or income.<sup><a href="#mn2" id="mt2">2</a></sup> Consequently, for the purpose of this analysis, beneficiaries were not assumed to retire later in response to the increase in the <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr>. Solvency estimates were developed by the Social Security Administration (<abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr>)'s Office of the Chief Actuary.</p>
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<h2>Major Findings</h2>
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<ul>
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<li><abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 68 and <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 70 would reduce benefits and improve solvency. When fully phased in, <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 68 could reduce average Social Security benefit amounts from 6.2 percent to 7.4 percent relative to current-law benefits, and eliminate 23 percent of Social Security's actuarial imbalance. When fully phased in, <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 70 could reduce average Social Security benefit amounts from 18.1 percent to 20.0 percent, and eliminate 31 percent of Social Security's actuarial imbalance.</li>
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<li>Average benefit reductions would be proportional across different income and lifetime wage groups under <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 68 and <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 70. Microsimulations project that <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 68 would reduce benefits by a median of 6.5 percent in 2070 relative to current-law benefits. <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 70 would reduce benefits by a median of 11.3 percent relative to current-law benefits in 2070 but, because it would still be phasing in, <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 70 would reduce benefits more for those aged 62–69 (13.9 percent) than for older beneficiaries (for example, 6.4 percent for those aged 90 or older).</li>
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<li><abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 68 and <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 70 would shield large numbers of surviving spouse and disabled beneficiaries. Social Security's benefit rules would shield more than 40 percent of surviving spouse beneficiaries from any benefit reduction under <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 68 and <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 70. Likewise, the structure of disability benefits would shield approximately 90 percent of disabled and retired disabled beneficiaries from any reductions under <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 68 and <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 70.</li>
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<li><abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 68 and <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 70 would reduce spouse benefits more than other benefit types. <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 68 and <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 70 would affect slightly more spousal beneficiaries and reduce benefits more for spousal beneficiaries than for other beneficiary types. Based on the <abbr>MINT</abbr> simulations, the median benefit reduction relative to current-law spouse benefits in 2070 would be 7.0 percent under <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 68 and 14.1 percent under <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 70.</li>
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<li><abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 68 and <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 70 would increase poverty slightly. <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 68 would increase poverty among aged beneficiaries in 2070 from 0.9 percent under current-law benefits to 1.1 percent. <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 70 would increase the poverty rate to 1.2 percent. Poverty under <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 68 and <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 70 would remain substantially lower than the 2.2 percent rate projected under current law assuming Trust Fund exhaustion in 2037.</li>
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</ul>
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<h2>Current-Law <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr></h2>
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<p>The system of <span class="nobr">old-age</span> insurance established by the Social Security Act of 1935 provided retirement benefits to insured workers aged 65 or older. Benefits for wives and widows aged 65 or older were added in 1939. Benefits for husbands and widowers were added in 1950. Between 1956 and 1961 an early eligibility age (<abbr class="spell">EEA</abbr>) of 62 years was established for insured workers, spouses, and surviving spouses. The <abbr class="spell">EEA</abbr> for surviving spouses was reduced to 60 years in 1965.</p>
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<p>In 1983 Congress scheduled gradual increases in the <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> to begin in 2000. In the first stage, the <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> would increase in <span class="nobr">2-month</span> increments each year, starting with 65 years and 2 months in 2000, until reaching 66 years for newly eligible beneficiaries by 2005. After a <span class="nobr">12-year</span> hiatus, the <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> would again begin to increase in <span class="nobr">2-month</span> increments in 2017, until reaching 67 years for new beneficiaries eligible in 2022. The <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> for surviving spouses was also scheduled to increase to 67 years for new surviving spouses eligible (that is, attaining age 60) in 2022.</p>
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<p>Benefits received prior to reaching the <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> are actuarially reduced for early retirement. These reductions are permanent and are designed to ensure that lifetime benefits are approximately equivalent, on average, whether a beneficiary claims upon reaching the <abbr class="spell">EEA</abbr> or waits until reaching the <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr>.<sup><a href="#mn3" id="mt3">3</a></sup> Under current law, benefits for insured workers are reduced by 6.67 percent for each of the first 3 years prior to reaching the <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> and by 5 percent for the fourth and fifth years prior to reaching the <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> (Table 1). Workers with an <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> of 66 years who take benefits at age 62 would have 4 years of "early retirement" and a benefit reduction of 25 percent (3 years at 6.67 percent plus 1 year at 5 percent). Once the <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> reaches 67 years, workers who take benefits at age 62 would have 5 years of early retirement and a benefit reduction of 30 percent (3 years at 6.67 percent plus 2 years at 5 percent). Insured workers are also eligible to receive a delayed retirement credit (<abbr class="spell">DRC</abbr>) of 8 percent for each year of deferred benefits after reaching the <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> (up to age 70).</p>
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<div class="table" id="table1">
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<table>
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<caption><span class="tableNumber">Table 1. </span>Effects of <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 68 on benefits for a retired worker with primary insurance amount (<abbr class="spell">PIA</abbr>) equal to the average <abbr class="spell">PIA</abbr> in 2008</caption>
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<colgroup span="1" style="width:6em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="4" style="width:6em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="4" style="width:6em"></colgroup>
|
|
<thead>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stubHeading" rowspan="2" scope="colgroup">Age when benefits first claimed</th>
|
|
<th class="spanner" colspan="4" scope="colgroup">Current law </th>
|
|
<th class="spanner" colspan="4" scope="colgroup"><abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 68</th>
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</tr>
|
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<tr>
|
|
<th scope="col">Monthly <abbr class="spell">PIA</abbr> ($)</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Early retirement reduction (%)</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Delayed retirement credit (%)</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Monthly benefit amount ($)</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Early retirement reduction (%)</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Delayed retirement credit (%)</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Monthly benefit amount ($)</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Change from current-law benefit (%)</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</thead>
|
|
<tbody>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">62</th>
|
|
<td>1,298</td>
|
|
<td>30.0</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>908</td>
|
|
<td>34.5</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>850</td>
|
|
<td>-6.4</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">63</th>
|
|
<td>1,298</td>
|
|
<td>25.0</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>973</td>
|
|
<td>30.0</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>909</td>
|
|
<td>-6.7</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">64</th>
|
|
<td>1,298</td>
|
|
<td>20.0</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>1,038</td>
|
|
<td>25.0</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>974</td>
|
|
<td>-6.2</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">65</th>
|
|
<td>1,298</td>
|
|
<td>13.3</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>1,125</td>
|
|
<td>20.0</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>1,038</td>
|
|
<td>-7.7</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">66</th>
|
|
<td>1,298</td>
|
|
<td>6.7</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>1,211</td>
|
|
<td>13.3</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>1,125</td>
|
|
<td>-7.1</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">67</th>
|
|
<td>1,298</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>1,298</td>
|
|
<td>6.7</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>1,211</td>
|
|
<td>-6.7</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">68</th>
|
|
<td>1,298</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>8.0</td>
|
|
<td>1,402</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>1,298</td>
|
|
<td>-7.4</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">69</th>
|
|
<td>1,298</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>16.0</td>
|
|
<td>1,506</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>8.0</td>
|
|
<td>1,402</td>
|
|
<td>-6.9</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">70</th>
|
|
<td>1,298</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>24.0</td>
|
|
<td>1,610</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>16.0</td>
|
|
<td>1,506</td>
|
|
<td>-6.5</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tbody>
|
|
<tfoot>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="firstNote" colspan="9">SOURCES: Author's calculations and <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> Annual Statistical Supplement to the Social Security Bulletin, 2009, Table 6.A2.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="lastNote" colspan="9">NOTE: . . . = not applicable.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tfoot>
|
|
</table>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<p>The spouse's benefit is <span class="nobr">one-half</span> of the insured worker's monthly primary insurance amount (<abbr class="spell">PIA</abbr>), minus any early retirement reduction if the benefit is claimed before the spouse reaches the <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr>. Spouse benefits are reduced 8.33 percent for each of the first 3 years, or a total of 25 percent for the first 3 years of early retirement, and 5 percent for the fourth and fifth years of early retirement. Spouse beneficiaries with an <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> of 66 years who take benefits at age 62 would have their benefits reduced by 30 percent (3 years at 8.33 percent plus 1 year at 5 percent). Spouse beneficiaries with an <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> of 67 years who take benefits at age 62 would have their benefits reduced by 35 percent (3 years at 8.33 percent plus 2 years at 5 percent). A spouse's benefit is not affected by the age at which insured worker claims benefits.</p>
|
|
<p>Survivor benefits for an aged spouse, with some important exceptions, range from 71.5 percent of <abbr class="spell">PIA</abbr> (if claimed at age 60) to 100 percent of <abbr class="spell">PIA</abbr> (if claimed at or after reaching the <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> for surviving spouse benefits). Prorated amounts are paid for claiming between age 60 and the <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr>. The formula has two important exceptions, which depend on the insured worker's age when claiming benefits. First, if the insured worker claimed retirement benefits before his or her <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr>, the surviving spouse's benefit is limited to the highest of 82.5 percent of the <abbr class="spell">PIA</abbr> or the monthly benefit amount the deceased insured worker would be receiving if alive. Thus, if the worker claimed benefits prior to reaching the <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr>, the surviving spouse would not be eligible for the worker's full <abbr class="spell">PIA</abbr> even if the surviving spouse first received the survivor benefit at or after reaching his or her own <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr>. The cap on the amount a surviving spouse can receive from the record of a worker who claimed benefits prior to reaching <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> is called the <span class="nobr">"widow(er)'s</span> limit."<sup><a href="#mn4" id="mt4">4</a></sup> However, the 82.5-percent-of-<abbr class="spell">PIA</abbr> feature of the <span class="nobr">widow(er)'s</span> limit ensures that the surviving spouse's benefits would not be reduced by the full amount of the worker's reduction if the worker claimed upon reaching the <abbr class="spell">EEA</abbr>. The other exception to the general formula is that surviving spouses inherit delayed retirement credits earned by their deceased spouses.</p>
|
|
<h2>Implementing <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 68 and <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 70</h2>
|
|
<p>Both <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 68 and <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 70 would increase the <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> from 66 years at the rate of 2 months per year beginning in 2010 until reaching 67 years for new beneficiaries in 2015. <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 68 would continue increasing the <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> by 1 month every 2 years until reaching 68 years for new beneficiaries beginning in 2038. <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 70 would continue increasing the <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> by 1 month every 2 years until reaching 70 years for new beneficiaries beginning in 2086.</p>
|
|
<h3>Benefit Reductions</h3>
|
|
<p>Under <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 68, benefits in the new sixth year of early retirement would be reduced by ⅜ of 1 percent per month (or 4.5 percent for the year) relative to current-law benefits for insured workers and spouses. Under <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 70, benefits in the new sixth and seventh years of early retirement would be reduced by ⅜ of 1 percent per month (or 4.5 percent per year) relative to current-law benefits for insured workers and spouses, and in the eighth year benefits would be reduced by ⅓ of 1 percent per month (or 4.0 percent for the year). Surviving spouses would continue to receive 71.5 percent of <abbr class="spell">PIA</abbr> for benefits claimed at age 60 under <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 68 and <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 70, but benefit amounts would be lower than under current law if benefits were claimed after age 60 and prior to ages 68 and 70, respectively.</p>
|
|
<p>Tables 1 and 2 show how <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 68 and <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 70, when fully phased in, would affect a retired-worker beneficiary whose <abbr class="spell">PIA</abbr> equals the average <abbr class="spell">PIA</abbr> in the aged population according to age of first entitlement. Depending on when the retired-worker beneficiary began receiving benefits, <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 68 would reduce his or her benefits by between 6.2 percent and 7.4 percent (<a href="#table1">Table 1</a>). <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 70 would reduce benefits for the same <abbr class="spell">PIA</abbr>-level retired worker by between 18.1 percent and 20.0 percent. Interestingly, these stylized examples suggest the greatest reduction in benefits—in percentage terms—would apply to those first taking retirement benefits at age 65 (<abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 68) and 67 (<abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 70).</p>
|
|
<div class="table" id="table2">
|
|
<table>
|
|
<caption><span class="tableNumber">Table 2. </span>Effects of <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 70 on benefits for a retired worker with primary insurance amount (<abbr class="spell">PIA</abbr>) equal to the average <abbr class="spell">PIA</abbr> in 2008</caption>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:6em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="4" style="width:6em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="3" style="width:6em"></colgroup>
|
|
<thead>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stubHeading" rowspan="2" scope="colgroup">Age when benefits first claimed</th>
|
|
<th class="spanner" colspan="4" scope="colgroup">Current law </th>
|
|
<th class="spanner" colspan="3" scope="colgroup"><abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 70</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th scope="col">Monthly <abbr class="spell">PIA</abbr> ($)</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Early retirement reduction (%)</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Delayed retirement credit (%)</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Monthly benefit amount ($)</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Early retirement reduction (%)</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Monthly benefit amount ($)</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Change from current-law benefit (%)</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</thead>
|
|
<tbody>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">62</th>
|
|
<td>1,298</td>
|
|
<td>30.0</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>908</td>
|
|
<td>43.0</td>
|
|
<td>740</td>
|
|
<td>-18.6</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">63</th>
|
|
<td>1,298</td>
|
|
<td>25.0</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>973</td>
|
|
<td>39.0</td>
|
|
<td>792</td>
|
|
<td>-18.7</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">64</th>
|
|
<td>1,298</td>
|
|
<td>20.0</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>1,038</td>
|
|
<td>34.5</td>
|
|
<td>850</td>
|
|
<td>-18.1</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">65</th>
|
|
<td>1,298</td>
|
|
<td>13.3</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>1,125</td>
|
|
<td>30.0</td>
|
|
<td>909</td>
|
|
<td>-19.2</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">66</th>
|
|
<td>1,298</td>
|
|
<td>6.7</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>1,211</td>
|
|
<td>25.0</td>
|
|
<td>974</td>
|
|
<td>-19.6</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">67</th>
|
|
<td>1,298</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>1,298</td>
|
|
<td>20.0</td>
|
|
<td>1,038</td>
|
|
<td>-20.0</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">68</th>
|
|
<td>1,298</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>8.0</td>
|
|
<td>1,402</td>
|
|
<td>13.3</td>
|
|
<td>1,125</td>
|
|
<td>-19.8</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">69</th>
|
|
<td>1,298</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>16.0</td>
|
|
<td>1,506</td>
|
|
<td>6.7</td>
|
|
<td>1,211</td>
|
|
<td>-19.6</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">70</th>
|
|
<td>1,298</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>24.0</td>
|
|
<td>1,610</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>1,298</td>
|
|
<td>-19.4</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tbody>
|
|
<tfoot>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="firstNote" colspan="8">SOURCES: Author's calculations and <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> Annual Statistical Supplement to the Social Security Bulletin, 2009, Table 6.A2.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="lastNote" colspan="8">NOTE: . . . = not applicable.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tfoot>
|
|
</table>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<p>Some surviving spouses are likely to be affected by the 82.5 percent limit because of the way Social Security computes their benefits. <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 68 or <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 70 would not affect those surviving spouses, and would also not affect disability benefits, although the <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> options might reduce benefits for disability beneficiaries who also receive <span class="nobr">old-age</span> benefits.</p>
|
|
<h3>Benefit Reductions Would Improve Solvency</h3>
|
|
<p>As measured by the actuarial balance, <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 68 and <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 70 would improve system solvency by reducing lifetime benefit payments, but neither option would eliminate Social Security's <span class="nobr">long-term</span> imbalance. The actuarial balance is the amount by which the Social Security payroll tax would have to be increased today to eliminate the <span class="nobr">75-year</span> funding shortfall. <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 70 would reduce the program's actuarial imbalance from -2.00 percent of taxable payroll to -1.39 percent (Table 3). <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 68 would reduce the imbalance to <span class="nobr">-1.55 percent.</span></p>
|
|
<div class="table" id="table3">
|
|
<table>
|
|
<caption><span class="tableNumber">Table 3. </span>Effects of <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 68 and <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 70 on Social Security Trust Fund solvency (as a percentage of taxable payroll)</caption>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:14em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="2" style="width:9em"></colgroup>
|
|
<thead>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stubHeading" scope="col">Scenario</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Long range actuarial balance</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Annual balance in 75th year</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</thead>
|
|
<tbody>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="rowgroup">Current law</th>
|
|
<td>-2.00</td>
|
|
<td>-4.34</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="rowgroup">Under <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 68</th>
|
|
<td colspan="2"></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Change from current law</th>
|
|
<td>0.46</td>
|
|
<td>0.73</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Result of option</th>
|
|
<td>-1.55</td>
|
|
<td>-3.62</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="rowgroup">Under <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 70</th>
|
|
<td colspan="2"></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Change from current law</th>
|
|
<td>0.62</td>
|
|
<td>1.43</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Result of option</th>
|
|
<td>-1.39</td>
|
|
<td>-2.91</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tbody>
|
|
<tfoot>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="firstNote" colspan="3">SOURCE: <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr>, Office of the Chief Actuary. See <a href="/OACT/solvency/provisions/charts/chart_run305.html">http://www.socialsecurity.gov/OACT/solvency/provisions/charts/chart_run305.html</a> and <a href="/OACT/solvency/provisions/charts/chart_run306.html">http://www.socialsecurity.gov/OACT/solvency/provisions/charts/chart_run306.html</a>.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="lastNote" colspan="3">NOTE: "Result of option" values do not necessarily equal the sum of rounded "current law" and "change from current law" values. </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tfoot>
|
|
</table>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<h2>Microsimulation Results</h2>
|
|
<p>Chart 1 illustrates how <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 68 and <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 70 would affect benefits relative to those scheduled under current law, along with payable benefits assuming no change in current law. Reductions from current-law benefits would level off under <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 68 by 2060, but would continue under <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 70 through 2080.</p>
|
|
<div class="chartCenter">
|
|
<div class="chart700" id="chart1">
|
|
<div class="title">Chart 1.<br>Average benefit change from current law, <span class="nobr">2010–2080</span> (in percent)</div>
|
|
<div class="scrollChart"><img src="pb2011-01c1.gif" width="700" height="223" alt="Line chart with tabular version below." /></div>
|
|
<div class="table altTable"><a class="altToggle" href="">Show as table</a>
|
|
<table>
|
|
<caption><span class="tableNumber">Table equivalent for Chart 1. </span>Average benefit change from current law, <span class="nobr">2010–2080</span> (in percent)</caption>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:6em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="3" style="width:6em"></colgroup>
|
|
<thead>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stubHeading" scope="col">Year</th>
|
|
<th scope="col"><abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 68</th>
|
|
<th scope="col"><abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 70</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Payable benefits</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</thead>
|
|
<tbody>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2010</th>
|
|
<td>0</td>
|
|
<td>0</td>
|
|
<td>0</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2011</th>
|
|
<td>-0.1</td>
|
|
<td>-0.1</td>
|
|
<td>0</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2012</th>
|
|
<td>-0.3</td>
|
|
<td>-0.3</td>
|
|
<td>0</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2013</th>
|
|
<td>-0.5</td>
|
|
<td>-0.5</td>
|
|
<td>0</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2014</th>
|
|
<td>-0.8</td>
|
|
<td>-0.8</td>
|
|
<td>0</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2015</th>
|
|
<td>-1.2</td>
|
|
<td>-1.2</td>
|
|
<td>0</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2016</th>
|
|
<td>-1.5</td>
|
|
<td>-1.5</td>
|
|
<td>0</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2017</th>
|
|
<td>-1.8</td>
|
|
<td>-1.8</td>
|
|
<td>0</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2018</th>
|
|
<td>-2.1</td>
|
|
<td>-2.1</td>
|
|
<td>0</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2019</th>
|
|
<td>-2.9</td>
|
|
<td>-2.9</td>
|
|
<td>0</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2020</th>
|
|
<td>-3.0</td>
|
|
<td>-3.0</td>
|
|
<td>0</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2021</th>
|
|
<td>-3.1</td>
|
|
<td>-3.1</td>
|
|
<td>0</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2022</th>
|
|
<td>-3.1</td>
|
|
<td>-3.1</td>
|
|
<td>0</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2023</th>
|
|
<td>-3.0</td>
|
|
<td>-3.0</td>
|
|
<td>0</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2024</th>
|
|
<td>-3.0</td>
|
|
<td>-3.0</td>
|
|
<td>0</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2025</th>
|
|
<td>-3.0</td>
|
|
<td>-3.0</td>
|
|
<td>0</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2026</th>
|
|
<td>-2.5</td>
|
|
<td>-2.5</td>
|
|
<td>0</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2027</th>
|
|
<td>-2.5</td>
|
|
<td>-2.5</td>
|
|
<td>0</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2028</th>
|
|
<td>-2.5</td>
|
|
<td>-2.5</td>
|
|
<td>0</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2029</th>
|
|
<td>-2.6</td>
|
|
<td>-2.6</td>
|
|
<td>0</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2030</th>
|
|
<td>-2.6</td>
|
|
<td>-2.6</td>
|
|
<td>0</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2031</th>
|
|
<td>-2.7</td>
|
|
<td>-2.7</td>
|
|
<td>0</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2032</th>
|
|
<td>-2.8</td>
|
|
<td>-2.8</td>
|
|
<td>0</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2033</th>
|
|
<td>-2.8</td>
|
|
<td>-2.8</td>
|
|
<td>0</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2034</th>
|
|
<td>-2.9</td>
|
|
<td>-2.9</td>
|
|
<td>0</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2035</th>
|
|
<td>-3.0</td>
|
|
<td>-3.0</td>
|
|
<td>0</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2036</th>
|
|
<td>-3.1</td>
|
|
<td>-3.1</td>
|
|
<td>0</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2037</th>
|
|
<td>-3.3</td>
|
|
<td>-3.3</td>
|
|
<td>-16.9</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2038</th>
|
|
<td>-3.4</td>
|
|
<td>-3.4</td>
|
|
<td>-23.8</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2039</th>
|
|
<td>-3.5</td>
|
|
<td>-3.5</td>
|
|
<td>-23.6</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2040</th>
|
|
<td>-3.6</td>
|
|
<td>-3.6</td>
|
|
<td>-23.3</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2041</th>
|
|
<td>-3.7</td>
|
|
<td>-3.7</td>
|
|
<td>-23.1</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2042</th>
|
|
<td>-3.8</td>
|
|
<td>-3.9</td>
|
|
<td>-22.8</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2043</th>
|
|
<td>-4.2</td>
|
|
<td>-4.3</td>
|
|
<td>-22.6</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2044</th>
|
|
<td>-4.3</td>
|
|
<td>-4.4</td>
|
|
<td>-22.3</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2045</th>
|
|
<td>-4.4</td>
|
|
<td>-4.6</td>
|
|
<td>-22.1</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2046</th>
|
|
<td>-4.6</td>
|
|
<td>-4.8</td>
|
|
<td>-22.0</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2047</th>
|
|
<td>-4.6</td>
|
|
<td>-5.0</td>
|
|
<td>-21.8</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2048</th>
|
|
<td>-4.7</td>
|
|
<td>-5.2</td>
|
|
<td>-21.7</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2049</th>
|
|
<td>-4.8</td>
|
|
<td>-5.4</td>
|
|
<td>-21.6</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2050</th>
|
|
<td>-4.9</td>
|
|
<td>-5.5</td>
|
|
<td>-21.4</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2051</th>
|
|
<td>-5.0</td>
|
|
<td>-5.8</td>
|
|
<td>-21.4</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2052</th>
|
|
<td>-5.0</td>
|
|
<td>-6.0</td>
|
|
<td>-21.3</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2053</th>
|
|
<td>-5.1</td>
|
|
<td>-6.1</td>
|
|
<td>-21.3</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2054</th>
|
|
<td>-5.1</td>
|
|
<td>-6.3</td>
|
|
<td>-21.4</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2055</th>
|
|
<td>-5.2</td>
|
|
<td>-6.5</td>
|
|
<td>-21.4</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2056</th>
|
|
<td>-5.2</td>
|
|
<td>-6.7</td>
|
|
<td>-21.5</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2057</th>
|
|
<td>-5.3</td>
|
|
<td>-6.9</td>
|
|
<td>-21.6</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2058</th>
|
|
<td>-5.3</td>
|
|
<td>-7.1</td>
|
|
<td>-21.7</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2059</th>
|
|
<td>-5.3</td>
|
|
<td>-7.3</td>
|
|
<td>-21.8</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2060</th>
|
|
<td>-5.3</td>
|
|
<td>-7.4</td>
|
|
<td>-21.9</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2061</th>
|
|
<td>-5.3</td>
|
|
<td>-7.6</td>
|
|
<td>-22.0</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2062</th>
|
|
<td>-5.4</td>
|
|
<td>-7.8</td>
|
|
<td>-22.1</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2063</th>
|
|
<td>-5.4</td>
|
|
<td>-8</td>
|
|
<td>-22.2</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2064</th>
|
|
<td>-5.4</td>
|
|
<td>-8.2</td>
|
|
<td>-22.4</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2065</th>
|
|
<td>-5.4</td>
|
|
<td>-8.3</td>
|
|
<td>-22.5</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2066</th>
|
|
<td>-5.4</td>
|
|
<td>-8.5</td>
|
|
<td>-22.7</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2067</th>
|
|
<td>-5.4</td>
|
|
<td>-8.7</td>
|
|
<td>-22.8</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2068</th>
|
|
<td>-5.4</td>
|
|
<td>-9.1</td>
|
|
<td>-23.0</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2069</th>
|
|
<td>-5.4</td>
|
|
<td>-9.3</td>
|
|
<td>-23.2</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2070</th>
|
|
<td>-5.4</td>
|
|
<td>-9.5</td>
|
|
<td>-23.3</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2071</th>
|
|
<td>-5.4</td>
|
|
<td>-9.6</td>
|
|
<td>-23.5</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2072</th>
|
|
<td>-5.4</td>
|
|
<td>-9.8</td>
|
|
<td>-23.7</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2073</th>
|
|
<td>-5.4</td>
|
|
<td>-10.0</td>
|
|
<td>-23.9</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2074</th>
|
|
<td>-5.4</td>
|
|
<td>-10.2</td>
|
|
<td>-24.1</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2075</th>
|
|
<td>-5.4</td>
|
|
<td>-10.3</td>
|
|
<td>-24.3</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2076</th>
|
|
<td>-5.4</td>
|
|
<td>-10.5</td>
|
|
<td>-24.5</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2077</th>
|
|
<td>-5.4</td>
|
|
<td>-10.7</td>
|
|
<td>-24.7</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2078</th>
|
|
<td>-5.4</td>
|
|
<td>-10.8</td>
|
|
<td>-25.0</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2079</th>
|
|
<td>-5.4</td>
|
|
<td>-11.0</td>
|
|
<td>-25.2</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2080</th>
|
|
<td>-5.4</td>
|
|
<td>-11.2</td>
|
|
<td>-25.4</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tbody>
|
|
<tfoot>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="noNotes" colspan="4"> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tfoot>
|
|
</table>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<div class="firstNote">SOURCE: Author's calculations using Modeling Income in the Near Term (<abbr>MINT</abbr>) data, based on <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> Office of the Chief Actuary projections under intermediate assumptions.</div>
|
|
<div class="lastNote">NOTE: The Trust Fund is projected to be exhausted in 2037.</div>
|
|
</div>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<h3>The Median Benefit Reduction Would Be 6.5 Percent under <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 68 and between 11.1 Percent and 11.6 Percent under <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 70</h3>
|
|
<p>Table 4 shows effects of <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 68 and <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 70 on scheduled benefits in 2070 by sex, age, household income quintile, and lifetime wage quintile.<sup><a href="#mn5" id="mt5">5</a></sup> Because it would be fully phased in by 2070, the distributional estimates for <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 68 are more apt to remain relatively consistent across groups in future years (everything else being equal) than those for <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 70, which would still be phasing in after 2070.</p>
|
|
<div class="table" id="table4">
|
|
<table>
|
|
<caption><span class="tableNumber">Table 4. </span>Effects of <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 68 and <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 70 in 2070 relative to current-law benefits, by beneficiary sex, age, household income, and lifetime wages</caption>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:13em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="2" style="width:7em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="2" style="width:7em"></colgroup>
|
|
<thead>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stubHeading" rowspan="2" scope="colgroup">Characteristic</th>
|
|
<th class="spanner" colspan="2" scope="colgroup"><abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 68</th>
|
|
<th class="spanner" colspan="2" scope="colgroup"><abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 70</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th scope="col">Beneficiaries affected (%)</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Median change in benefit amount (%)</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Beneficiaries affected (%)</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Median change in benefit amount (%)</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</thead>
|
|
<tbody>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="rowgroup">Total</th>
|
|
<td>80.5</td>
|
|
<td>-6.5</td>
|
|
<td>82.1</td>
|
|
<td>-11.3</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="rowgroup">Sex</th>
|
|
<td colspan="4"></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Male</th>
|
|
<td>81.2</td>
|
|
<td>-6.5</td>
|
|
<td>82.9</td>
|
|
<td>-11.6</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Female</th>
|
|
<td>80.0</td>
|
|
<td>-6.5</td>
|
|
<td>81.5</td>
|
|
<td>-11.1</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="rowgroup">Age</th>
|
|
<td colspan="4"></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row"><span class="nobr">62–69</span></th>
|
|
<td>82.3</td>
|
|
<td>-6.5</td>
|
|
<td>83.2</td>
|
|
<td>-13.9</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row"><span class="nobr">70-79</span></th>
|
|
<td>81.5</td>
|
|
<td>-6.5</td>
|
|
<td>83.7</td>
|
|
<td>-11.4</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row"><span class="nobr">80-89</span></th>
|
|
<td>78.9</td>
|
|
<td>-6.5</td>
|
|
<td>80.8</td>
|
|
<td>-9.0</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">90+</th>
|
|
<td>72.2</td>
|
|
<td>-6.3</td>
|
|
<td>72.5</td>
|
|
<td>-6.4</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="rowgroup">Household income quintile</th>
|
|
<td colspan="4"></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Highest </th>
|
|
<td>87.7</td>
|
|
<td>-6.5</td>
|
|
<td>89.7</td>
|
|
<td>-11.2</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Second highest </th>
|
|
<td>84.4</td>
|
|
<td>-6.5</td>
|
|
<td>85.8</td>
|
|
<td>-11.4</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Middle </th>
|
|
<td>80.5</td>
|
|
<td>-6.5</td>
|
|
<td>82.6</td>
|
|
<td>-11.6</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Second lowest </th>
|
|
<td>77.9</td>
|
|
<td>-6.5</td>
|
|
<td>78.9</td>
|
|
<td>-11.5</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Lowest </th>
|
|
<td>72.4</td>
|
|
<td>-6.5</td>
|
|
<td>73.9</td>
|
|
<td>-11.1</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="rowgroup">Lifetime wages quintile</th>
|
|
<td colspan="4"></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Highest </th>
|
|
<td>88.3</td>
|
|
<td>-6.5</td>
|
|
<td>90.5</td>
|
|
<td>-11.1</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Second highest </th>
|
|
<td>85.1</td>
|
|
<td>-6.5</td>
|
|
<td>86.5</td>
|
|
<td>-11.3</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Middle </th>
|
|
<td>79.6</td>
|
|
<td>-6.5</td>
|
|
<td>80.5</td>
|
|
<td>-11.4</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Second lowest </th>
|
|
<td>70.9</td>
|
|
<td>-6.5</td>
|
|
<td>72.8</td>
|
|
<td>-11.6</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Lowest </th>
|
|
<td>72.5</td>
|
|
<td>-6.5</td>
|
|
<td>74.3</td>
|
|
<td>-11.6</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tbody>
|
|
<tfoot>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="firstNote" colspan="5">SOURCE: Author's calculations using Modeling Income in the Near Term (<abbr>MINT</abbr>) data.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="lastNote" colspan="5">NOTE: For newly eligible retired workers in 2070, <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 68 would be fully phased in, but the <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> would only have reached 69 years and 3 months under <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 70 (the <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> would reach 70 years in 2088). </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tfoot>
|
|
</table>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<p><abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 68 would affect 80.5 percent of all aged beneficiaries and the median benefit reduction relative to current-law benefits would be 6.5 percent in 2070. <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 68 would affect 82.3 percent of retirement beneficiaries <span class="nobr">aged 62–69</span> and 72.2 percent of those aged 90 or older. <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 68 would affect 87.7 percent of those in the highest income and wage quintiles and about 72.4 percent of those in the lowest income and wage quintiles, but the median reduction would be 6.5 percent for each quintile.</p>
|
|
<p><abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 70 would reduce benefits by about the same proportion for different income and lifetime wage groups. <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 70 would also reduce benefits by about the same proportion for men as for women. Because of its long <span class="nobr">phase-in</span> period, however, <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 70 would have substantially different impacts by age from <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 68 in 2070. Those between ages 62 and 69 would face median reductions of 13.9 percent, while those aged 90 or older would see median reductions of 6.4 percent.</p>
|
|
<h3>More Than 40 Percent of Surviving Spouse Beneficiaries Would Be Shielded from Any Benefit Reductions</h3>
|
|
<p>As suggested above, increases to the <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr>—without other changes to the benefit structure—would generally have less effect on surviving spouses because of current-law treatment of survivor benefits. Because benefits for surviving spouses depend on when the insured worker claimed benefits, however, <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 68 or <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 70 could reduce the insured worker's benefit and thus reduce benefits for surviving spouses. Nevertheless, also recall that the <span class="nobr">widow(er)'s</span> limit is never below 82.5 percent of the insured worker's <abbr class="spell">PIA</abbr>. This would help to limit any benefit losses to the surviving spouse stemming from <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 68 or <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 70's reductions to the insured worker's benefits.</p>
|
|
<p>The modeling results shown in Table 5 support this prediction. Although <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 68 would affect 98.0 percent of retired workers in 2070 relative to current-law benefits, it would affect only 53.6 percent of dually entitled surviving spouses and 24.0 percent of surviving spouse-only beneficiaries.</p>
|
|
<div class="table" id="table5">
|
|
<table>
|
|
<caption><span class="tableNumber">Table 5. </span>Effects of <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 68 and <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 70 in 2070 relative to current-law benefits, by beneficiary marital status and benefit type</caption>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:15em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="2" style="width:7em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="2" style="width:7em"></colgroup>
|
|
<thead>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stubHeading" rowspan="2" scope="colgroup">Characteristic</th>
|
|
<th class="spanner" colspan="2" scope="colgroup"><abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 68</th>
|
|
<th class="spanner" colspan="2" scope="colgroup"><abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 70</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th scope="col">Beneficiaries affected (%)</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Median change in benefit amount (%)</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Beneficiaries affected (%)</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Median change in benefit amount (%)</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</thead>
|
|
<tbody>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="rowgroup">Total</th>
|
|
<td>80.5</td>
|
|
<td>-6.5</td>
|
|
<td>82.1</td>
|
|
<td>-11.3</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="rowgroup">Marital status</th>
|
|
<td colspan="4"></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Never married</th>
|
|
<td>86.9</td>
|
|
<td>-6.5</td>
|
|
<td>86.9</td>
|
|
<td>-11.8</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Married</th>
|
|
<td>87.1</td>
|
|
<td>-6.5</td>
|
|
<td>88.9</td>
|
|
<td>-12.0</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Divorced</th>
|
|
<td>80.1</td>
|
|
<td>-6.5</td>
|
|
<td>81.0</td>
|
|
<td>-11.0</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Widowed</th>
|
|
<td>58.3</td>
|
|
<td>-5.9</td>
|
|
<td>61.2</td>
|
|
<td>-6.2</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="rowgroup">Benefit type</th>
|
|
<td colspan="4"></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Retired worker</th>
|
|
<td>98.0</td>
|
|
<td>-6.5</td>
|
|
<td>99.3</td>
|
|
<td>-11.8</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Spouse and worker</th>
|
|
<td>99.6</td>
|
|
<td>-6.6</td>
|
|
<td>100.0</td>
|
|
<td>-11.9</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Spouse only</th>
|
|
<td>84.7</td>
|
|
<td>-7.0</td>
|
|
<td>86.5</td>
|
|
<td>-14.1</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Surviving spouse and worker</th>
|
|
<td>53.6</td>
|
|
<td>-2.8</td>
|
|
<td>57.3</td>
|
|
<td>-3.6</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Surviving spouse only</th>
|
|
<td>24.0</td>
|
|
<td>-4.8</td>
|
|
<td>28.0</td>
|
|
<td>-4.2</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Retired disabled</th>
|
|
<td>9.2</td>
|
|
<td>-2.6</td>
|
|
<td>10.5</td>
|
|
<td>-2.9</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Current disabled</th>
|
|
<td>5.2</td>
|
|
<td>-1.3</td>
|
|
<td>5.8</td>
|
|
<td>-2.4</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tbody>
|
|
<tfoot>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="onlyNote" colspan="5">SOURCE: Author's calculations using Modeling Income in the Near Term (<abbr>MINT</abbr>) data.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tfoot>
|
|
</table>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<h3>About 90 Percent of Retired Disabled Beneficiaries Would Be Shielded from Any Benefit Reduction </h3>
|
|
<p>Current benefit rules would also shield nearly all disabled beneficiaries from any benefit reductions under <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 68 and <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 70. By design, the <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> increases would not affect disability benefits. However, <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 68 and <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 70 could affect disabled beneficiaries if they receive <span class="nobr">old-age</span> benefits as well. Such beneficiaries would receive disability benefits until converting to <span class="nobr">old-age</span> benefits at retirement age, but their disability benefits would not change. However, disabled beneficiaries claiming spousal or survivor's benefits based on the record of a worker who retired before reaching <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> would face reductions under the <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> options. As Table 5 shows, <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 68 would affect less than 10 percent of disabled beneficiaries in 2070, while only slightly more would be affected under <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 70. The median benefit reduction for retired and current disabled beneficiaries would range from 1.3 percent to 2.9 percent.</p>
|
|
<h3>Spousal Benefits Reduced More Than Other Benefits</h3>
|
|
<p>Because spousal benefit levels are determined by the insured worker's earnings record rather than the worker's benefit-claiming behavior, any reduction to the insured worker's benefit stemming from <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 68 or <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 70 would not affect the spouse. However, a spousal benefit claimed in the first 3 years prior to the spouse's reaching the <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> faces a higher annual reduction (8.3 percent) than that for retired-worker benefits (6.7 percent).</p>
|
|
<p>Relative to current-law benefits, the median benefit reduction for spouse-only beneficiaries would be only 0.5 percentage points greater than that for retired workers under <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 68 in 2070. The difference in median benefit reduction between the two benefit types would widen under <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 70 to 2.3 percentage points.</p>
|
|
<p>One potential cause of the greater benefit reduction for spouse-only beneficiaries is age. As <a href="#table4">Table 4</a> shows, the median benefit reduction under <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 70 for those <span class="nobr">aged 62–69</span> would be 13.9 percent, compared with a median reduction of 11.4 percent for those <span class="nobr">aged 70–79.</span> This age gap stems from the fact that in 2070 <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 70 would still be phasing in. Moreover, affected spouse-only beneficiaries in 2070 would be younger (with a median age of 69) than retired-worker beneficiaries (with a median age of 73).</p>
|
|
<h3>Slight Increases in the Poverty Rate </h3>
|
|
<p>Compared with current law, <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 68 and <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 70 would increase the number of aged beneficiaries in poverty (Table 6). <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 68 would increase the poverty rate from 0.9 percent under current-law benefits to 1.1 percent in 2070; <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 70 would increase the poverty rate to 1.3 percent. Compared with the current-law benefits and Trust Fund exhaustion scenario, poverty rates under <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 68 and <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 70 would be lower in 2070. Because it would continue phasing in after 2070, <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 70 would likely raise poverty rates slightly in later years. Overall, because the federal government automatically adjusts poverty thresholds according to price changes rather than economywide wage growth (as used for initial Social Security benefits), poverty rates would tend to decline over time.<sup><a href="#mn6" id="mt6">6</a></sup></p>
|
|
<div class="table" id="table6">
|
|
<table>
|
|
<caption><span class="tableNumber">Table 6. </span>Measures of poverty among beneficiaries in 2070 under current law, <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 68, and <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 70 </caption>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:13em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="4" style="width:7em"></colgroup>
|
|
<thead>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stubHeading" rowspan="2" id="c1">Economic characteristic</th>
|
|
<th class="spanner" colspan="2" id="c2">Current law</th>
|
|
<th rowspan="2" id="c3"><abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 68</th>
|
|
<th rowspan="2" id="c4"><abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> 70</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th id="c5" headers="c2">Scheduled</th>
|
|
<th id="c6" headers="c2">Payable <sup>a</sup></th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</thead>
|
|
<tbody>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td></td>
|
|
<th class="panel" colspan="4" id="r1">Percentage of beneficiaries in poverty in 2070</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r2" headers="r1 c1">Total</th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 c2 c5">0.9</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 c2 c6">2.1</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 c3">1.1</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 c4">1.3</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r3" headers="r1 c1">Household income quintile</th>
|
|
<td colspan="4"></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r4" headers="r1 r3 c1">Second lowest </th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r3 r4 c2 c5">0.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r3 r4 c2 c6">0.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r3 r4 c3">0.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r3 r4 c4">0.0</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r5" headers="r1 r3 c1">Lowest </th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r3 r5 c2 c5">5.5</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r3 r5 c2 c6">12.7</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r3 r5 c3">6.6</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r3 r5 c4">7.7</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r6" headers="r1 c1">Lifetime wages quintile</th>
|
|
<td colspan="4"></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r7" headers="r1 r6 c1">Second lowest </th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r6 r7 c2 c5">0.1</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r6 r7 c2 c6">1.3</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r6 r7 c3">0.2</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r6 r7 c4">0.2</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r8" headers="r1 r6 c1">Lowest </th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r6 r8 c2 c5">8.2</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r6 r8 c2 c6">17.3</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r6 r8 c3">9.8</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r6 r8 c4">11.4</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td></td>
|
|
<th class="panel" colspan="4" id="r9">Number of beneficiaries in poverty in 2070 (in thousands)</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r10" headers="r9 c1">Total</th>
|
|
<td headers="r9 r10 c2 c5">713</td>
|
|
<td headers="r9 r10 c2 c6">1,636</td>
|
|
<td headers="r9 r10 c3">858</td>
|
|
<td headers="r9 r10 c4">1,009</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r11" headers="r9 c1">Household income quintile</th>
|
|
<td colspan="4"></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r12" headers="r9 r11 c1">Second lowest </th>
|
|
<td headers="r9 r11 r12 c2 c5">0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r9 r11 r12 c2 c6">0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r9 r11 r12 c3">0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r9 r11 r12 c4">0</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r13" headers="r9 r11 c1">Lowest </th>
|
|
<td headers="r9 r11 r13 c2 c5">713</td>
|
|
<td headers="r9 r11 r13 c2 c6">1,636</td>
|
|
<td headers="r9 r11 r13 c3">858</td>
|
|
<td headers="r9 r11 r13 c4">1,009</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r14" headers="r9 c1">Lifetime wages quintile</th>
|
|
<td colspan="4"></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r15" headers="r9 r14 c1">Second lowest </th>
|
|
<td headers="r9 r14 r15 c2 c5">17</td>
|
|
<td headers="r9 r14 r15 c2 c6">173</td>
|
|
<td headers="r9 r14 r15 c3">25</td>
|
|
<td headers="r9 r14 r15 c4">31</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r16" headers="r9 r14 c1">Lowest </th>
|
|
<td headers="r9 r14 r16 c2 c5">697</td>
|
|
<td headers="r9 r14 r16 c2 c6">1,464</td>
|
|
<td headers="r9 r14 r16 c3">834</td>
|
|
<td headers="r9 r14 r16 c4">978</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tbody>
|
|
<tfoot>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="firstNote" colspan="5">SOURCE: Author's calculations using Modeling Income in the Near Term (<abbr>MINT</abbr>) data. </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="lastNote" colspan="5">a. Represents benefits that could be paid under the conditions of Trust Fund exhaustion. Under intermediate assumptions, the <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> Office of the Chief Actuary projects that the Trust Fund will be exhausted in 2037. </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tfoot>
|
|
</table>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<div id="notes">
|
|
<h2>Notes</h2>
|
|
<p> <a href="#mt1" id="mn1">1</a> For more information, see Social Security: Why Action Should be Taken Soon, Social Security Advisory Board (2005), <a href="https://www.ssab.gov/research/social-security-why-action-should-be-taken-soon/">http://www.ssab.gov/documents/WhyActionShouldbeTakenSoon.pdf</a>. The Board also discusses, and I have modeled, an option in which the only change is to speed up the <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> increase to 67. Microsimulation results for that option are not presented here because of space limitations and the option's minimal effects. Tabulations are available on request from the author.</p>
|
|
<p> <a href="#mt2" id="mn2">2</a> <abbr>MINT</abbr> is based on Social Security administrative data matched to the Census Bureau's Survey of Income and Program Participation. Work, marriage, death, and retirement are projected for real and imputed individuals based on real earnings, marital histories, and education levels.</p>
|
|
<p> <a href="#mt3" id="mn3">3</a> For more information, see "Social Security: Summary of Major Changes in the Cash Benefits Program" by Geoffrey Kollman, Congressional Research Service (May 18, 2000), <a href="/history/reports/crsleghist2.html">http://www.socialsecurity.gov/history/reports/crsleghist2.html</a>.</p>
|
|
<p> <a href="#mt4" id="mn4">4</a> For more information, see "The <span class="nobr">Widow(er)'s</span> Limit Provision of Social Security" by David A. Weaver, Social Security Bulletin 64(1): <span class="nobr">1–15</span> (2001/2002).</p>
|
|
<p> <a href="#mt5" id="mn5">5</a> The Lifetime Wages measure is the present value of a person's yearly shared earnings.</p>
|
|
<p> <a href="#mt6" id="mn6">6</a> For more information, see "Projections of Economic Well-Being for Social Security Beneficiaries in 2022 and 2062" by Barbara A. Butrica, David B. Cashin, and Cori E. Uccello, Social Security Bulletin 66(4): <span class="nobr">1–19</span> (2005/2006) and "Income Growth and Future Poverty Rates of the Aged" by Seyda G. Wentworth and David Pattison, Social Security Bulletin 64(3): <span class="nobr">23–37</span> (2001/2002).</p>
|
|
</div>
|
|
</div>
|
|
</article>
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