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<h1 itemprop="headline">Mortality Differentials by Race</h1>
<div id="hByline">by <span itemprop="author">Hilary Waldron</span><br><abbr class="spell" title="Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics">ORES</abbr> Working Paper <abbr title="Number">No.</abbr>&nbsp;99 (released December&nbsp;2002)</div>
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<p>In the 2001 report of the President's Commission to Strengthen Social Security, the commission states that blacks &quot;on average have both lower incomes and shorter life expectancies than other Americans.&quot; This paper examines the extent to which the shorter life expectancies of blacks are explained by differences between their average socioeconomic status and that of other Americans.</p>
<p>Estimates in this paper for men aged&nbsp;25 to 64 show that about half of the difference in risk of death between blacks and all other races was explained by education level&mdash;the measure of socioeconomic status employed. At ages&nbsp;65 to 90, black men were not found to have a significantly higher risk of death than men of all other races.</p>
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<p>The author is with the Division of Economic Research, Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, Office of Policy, Social Security Administration.</p>
<p><i>Acknowledgments</i>: The author would like to thank Susan Grad and Joyce Manchester for their helpful
comments and suggestions and Bert Kestenbaum for having the foresight to update the 1973 Exact Match, without which this analysis would not be possible.</p>
<p>Working papers in this series are preliminary materials circulated for review and comment. The findings and conclusions expressed in them are the authors' and do not necessarily represent the views of the Social Security Administration.</p>
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<h2>Summary</h2>
<p>There is disagreement in the differential mortality literature over whether adverse mortality differentials by race persist after accounting for differences in socioeconomic status between blacks and whites. Some studies find that differences in life expectancy
by race are reduced but are still present after controlling for socioeconomic status; other studies find that such differences are eliminated.</p>
<p>In part, the lack of consensus may be due to limitations of race data. The sample size of some racial groups is often small, which can cause estimates to vary widely. Categories of race and ethnicity have changed several times on surveys, complicating the study of trends over time. In addition, some studies have found that death reporting is less accurate for blacks, particularly at older ages (Elo and Preston&nbsp;1994). In fact, the authors (1994,&nbsp;427) conclude that &quot;conventionally constructed African-American death rates may be seriously flawed as early as age&nbsp;50.&quot;</p>
<p>Calculations of life expectancy by race are also sensitive to the age from which life expectancy is measured. Researchers have consistently found that the largest gap in black and white mortality rates occurs at young ages. In fact, several studies have found
that differences in life expectancy by race&mdash;after accounting for socioeconomic status&mdash;<i>are</i> present at ages&nbsp;25 to 64 and <i>are not</i> present at ages&nbsp;65 or older. However, it is not known how much this finding is affected by inaccurate death reporting for blacks at older ages.</p>
<p>Estimates in this paper for men aged&nbsp;25 to 64 show that about half of the difference in risk of death between blacks and all other races was explained by education level&mdash;the measure of socioeconomic status employed. In terms of magnitude, after controlling for both race and education, the predicted odds of death for black men were 1.3&nbsp;times the predicted odds of death of all other sample respondents, the predicted odds of death for men with less than 12&nbsp;years of education were 2.6&nbsp;times the odds of death for the college educated, and the predicted odds of death for men with 12 to 15&nbsp;years of education were 1.6&nbsp;times the predicted odds for the college educated. At ages&nbsp;65 to 90, black men were not found to have a significantly higher risk of death than men of all other races.</p>
<h2>Brief Overview of Selected Studies</h2>
<p>Several studies find that mortality differentials by race persist, after controlling for socioeconomic status and other variables frequently linked to mortality, but that the magnitude of those differentials is reduced. For example, when Lillard and Panis (1996,&nbsp;8) control for marital status and household income, the difference in expected age at death between black and white men as of their 25<sup>th</sup> birthday falls from 4.4&nbsp;years to 1.4&nbsp;years. Elo and Preston (1996,&nbsp;56) find that at ages&nbsp;25 to 64, 54&nbsp;percent of the higher mortality risk of black men and 39&nbsp;percent of the adverse mortality risk of black women is explained by socioeconomic variables. In that study, the authors control for family income, education, marital status, household size, region of birth, and current residence. Controlling for the same factors, they do not find significant mortality differences for black men or black women aged&nbsp;65 to 89. In a 1994 study, however, they find substantial age misreporting for blacks at older ages. Similarly, Sorlie, Backlund, and Keller (1995,&nbsp;951) find the magnitude of mortality risk among blacks aged&nbsp;25 to 44 and 45 to 64 is reduced but is still significantly higher than that of whites, after controlling for age, employment status, income, and education. The authors do not find a mortality risk differential by race for ages&nbsp;65 or older&mdash;except for men and women in the &quot;other&quot; (nonwhite, nonblack) category who show lower mortality risk than blacks and whites. Sorlie and others (1992) find that controlling for family income reduces the adverse mortality risk by 35&nbsp;percent for black men aged&nbsp;25 to 44 and by 55&nbsp;percent for those aged&nbsp;45 to 64. They cite several studies that have found lower use of medical services by blacks, controlling for age, sex, and income (<abbr title="pages">pp.</abbr>&nbsp;<span class="nobr">349&ndash;350</span>). When they examine relative mortality rates for black men after adjusting for income, they find that the mortality rate of blacks relative to whites is highest at ages&nbsp;30 to 40; lower, but still positive, at ages&nbsp;45 to 60; and approximately equal after age&nbsp;65.</p>
<p>On the other hand, several studies have found that controlling for socioeconomic status eliminates mortality differentials by race. For example, Menchik (1993,&nbsp;435) finds that controlling for economic and environmental variables reduces by 75&nbsp;percent mortality risk for black men aged&nbsp;45 to 59; the race differential is no longer statistically significant but is still positive. Rogers (1992,&nbsp;296) finds that controlling for age, sex, marital status, family size, and income erases differences in mortality risk between blacks and whites aged&nbsp;25 or older. He also examines cause-specific mortality rates after controlling for socioeconomic variables. Rogers (1996,&nbsp;297) finds that blacks have a higher probability of dying from diabetes, homicide, and infectious diseases; an equal probability of dying from circulatory disease and cancer; and a lower probability of dying from accidents, respiratory diseases, and suicide. Lillard and Panis (1998) find that black men aged&nbsp;25 or older are not at higher risk of death than are white men once education, marital status, and permanent income are controlled for. McDonough and others (1997,&nbsp;1481) find that the effect of being black on mortality among persons aged&nbsp;45 or older disappears when controlling for income. However, they note that this result should be interpreted with caution.</p>
<h2>Evidence from the 1973 Exact Match</h2>
<p>The 1973 Exact Match is a 1973 Current Population Survey (<abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr>) matched to Social Security administrative records through 1998. Deaths are observed in the administrative data from 1973 to 1997, so the 1973 Exact Match provides a fairly large sample of deaths for mortality estimates. In the 1973 Exact Match, level of education and marital status explain about half of the difference in mortality risk between blacks and all other races. Controlling for education and marital status lowers the odds of dying for blacks relative to all other races from 58&nbsp;percent to 30&nbsp;percent for ages&nbsp;25 to 64 and from 21&nbsp;percent to 9&nbsp;percent for ages&nbsp;65 to 90 (see Tables&nbsp;1 and 2, equations&nbsp;1 and 3). At ages&nbsp;65 to 90, black men do not have significantly higher mortality risk than white men, after controlling for education. However, in previous research on the 1973 Exact Match using a more restrictive sample (it excluded Social Security Disability Insurance beneficiaries), the predicted odds of dying were 17&nbsp;percent greater for black men than for all other men&mdash;a statistically significant result (Waldron&nbsp;2001). The fact that statistical significance changes with a change in sample composition illustrates the high variance of the race variable. Note that even when race was significant at older ages, the increase in the log odds of dying for black men relative to all other men ranged from 3&nbsp;percent to 32&nbsp;percent, demonstrating the wide variance of the point estimate (Waldron&nbsp;2001).</p>
<div class="table" id="table1">
<table>
<caption><span class="tableNumber">Table&nbsp;1. </span>Estimates for men aged&nbsp;25 to 64 (birth cohorts 1933 to 1948)</caption>
<colgroup span="1" style="width:12em"></colgroup>
<colgroup span="2" style="width:8em"></colgroup>
<colgroup span="2" style="width:8em"></colgroup>
<colgroup span="2" style="width:8em"></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="stubHeading" rowspan="2" scope="colgroup">Variable</th>
<th class="spanner" colspan="2" scope="colgroup">Equation&nbsp;1</th>
<th class="spanner" colspan="2" scope="colgroup">Equation&nbsp;2</th>
<th class="spanner" colspan="2" scope="colgroup">Equation&nbsp;3</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<th scope="col">Parameter<br>estimate</th>
<th scope="col">Odds ratio</th>
<th scope="col">Parameter<br>estimate</th>
<th scope="col">Odds ratio</th>
<th scope="col">Parameter<br>estimate</th>
<th scope="col">Odds ratio</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="topPad1">
<th class="stub0 top" scope="rowgroup">Intercept</th>
<td>18.7401<br>(15.3845)</td>
<td class="top">.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td>26.5075<br>(15.4321)**</td>
<td class="top">.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td>14.8892<br>(15.4857)</td>
<td class="top">.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
</tr>
<tr class="topPad1">
<th class="stub0 top" scope="rowgroup">Age</th>
<td>0.0684<br>(0.00446)*</td>
<td>1.071<br>(1.062-1.08)</td>
<td>0.0686<br>(0.00446)*</td>
<td>1.071<br>(1.062-1.08)</td>
<td>0.0691<br>(0.00446)*</td>
<td>1.071<br>(1.062-1.081)</td>
</tr>
<tr class="topPad1">
<th class="stub0 top" scope="rowgroup">Year of birth</th>
<td>-0.0141<br>(0.00787)**</td>
<td>0.986<br>(0.971-1.001)</td>
<td>-0.018<br>(0.00789)*</td>
<td>0.982<br>(0.967-0.997)</td>
<td>-0.0123<br>(0.00792)</td>
<td>0.988<br>(0.973-1.003)</td>
</tr>
<tr class="topPad1">
<th class="stub0 top" scope="rowgroup"><b>Black&nbsp;<sup>a</sup></b></th>
<td><b>0.46<br>(0.0951)*</b></td>
<td><b>1.584<br>(1.315-1.909)</b></td>
<td><b>0.4177<br>(0.0956)*</b></td>
<td><b>1.519<br>(1.259-1.831)</b></td>
<td><b>0.2609<br>(0.0968)*</b></td>
<td><b>1.298<br>(1.074-1.569)</b></td>
</tr>
<tr class="topPad1">
<th class="stub0 top" scope="rowgroup">Married in 1973</th>
<td class="top">.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td class="top">.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td>-0.3898<br>(0.0767)*</td>
<td>0.677<br>(0.583-0.787)</td>
<td>-0.3806<br>(0.0767)*</td>
<td>0.683<br>(0.588-0.794)</td>
</tr>
<tr class="topPad1">
<th class="stub0" scope="rowgroup">Education (years)</th>
<td colspan="6"></td>
</tr>
<tr class="topPad1 top">
<th class="stub1 top" scope="row">Less than 12</th>
<td class="top">.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td class="top">.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td class="top">.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td class="top">.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td>0.9481<br>(0.0987)*</td>
<td>2.581<br>(2.127-3.132)</td>
</tr>
<tr class="topPad1">
<th class="stub1 top" scope="row">12 to 15</th>
<td class="top">.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td class="top">.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td class="top">.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td class="top">.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td>0.4563<br>(0.094)*</td>
<td>1.578<br>(1.313-1.897)</td>
</tr>
<tr class="topPad1">
<th class="stub1 top" scope="row">16 or more</th>
<td>.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td>.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td>.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td>.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td>Reference<br>variable</td>
<td>Reference<br>variable</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
<tfoot>
<tr>
<td class="firstNote" colspan="7">SOURCE: Author's calculations using data from the 1973 Exact Match.</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="note" colspan="7">NOTES: .&nbsp;.&nbsp;. = not applicable.</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="note" colspan="7">* = standard error significant at the 5&nbsp;percent level.</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="note" colspan="7">** = standard error significant at the 10&nbsp;percent level.</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="lastNote" colspan="7">a. Race differential narrows with age in an interaction not shown here.</td>
</tr>
</tfoot>
</table>
</div>
<div class="table" id="table2">
<table>
<caption><span class="tableNumber">Table&nbsp;2. </span>Estimates for men aged&nbsp;65 to 90 (birth cohorts 1908 to 1932)</caption>
<colgroup span="1" style="width:12em"></colgroup>
<colgroup span="2" style="width:8em"></colgroup>
<colgroup span="2" style="width:8em"></colgroup>
<colgroup span="2" style="width:8em"></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="stubHeading" rowspan="2" scope="colgroup">Variable</th>
<th class="spanner" colspan="2" scope="colgroup">Equation&nbsp;1</th>
<th class="spanner" colspan="2" scope="colgroup">Equation&nbsp;2</th>
<th class="spanner" colspan="2" scope="colgroup">Equation&nbsp;3</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<th scope="col">Parameter<br>estimate</th>
<th scope="col">Odds ratio</th>
<th scope="col">Parameter<br>estimate</th>
<th scope="col">Odds ratio</th>
<th scope="col">Parameter<br>estimate</th>
<th scope="col">Odds ratio</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="topPad1">
<th class="stub0 top" scope="rowgroup">Intercept</th>
<td>19.963<br>(5.4639)*</td>
<td class="top">.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td>18.5246<br>(5.4661)*</td>
<td class="top">.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td>8.8557<br>(5.5564)**</td>
<td class="top">.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
</tr>
<tr class="topPad1">
<th class="stub0 top" scope="rowgroup">Age</th>
<td>0.0752<br>(0.00285)*</td>
<td>1.078<br>(1.072-1.084)</td>
<td>0.0757<br>(0.0028)*</td>
<td>1.079<br>(1.073-1.085)</td>
<td>0.0767<br>(0.00285)*</td>
<td>1.08<br>(1.074-1.086)</td>
</tr>
<tr class="topPad1">
<th class="stub0 top" scope="rowgroup">Year of birth&nbsp;<sup>a</sup></th>
<td>-0.0149<br>(0.0028)*</td>
<td>0.985<br>(0.980-0.991)</td>
<td>-0.014<br>(0.0028)*</td>
<td>0.986<br>(0.981-0.992)</td>
<td>-0.00918<br>(0.00285)*</td>
<td>0.991<br>(0.985-0.996)</td>
</tr>
<tr class="topPad1">
<th class="stub0 top" scope="rowgroup"><b>Black</b></th>
<td><b>0.1909<br>(0.0547)*</b></td>
<td><b>1.21<br>(1.087-1.347)</b></td>
<td><b>0.1633<br>(0.055)*</b></td>
<td><b>1.177<br>(1.057-1.311)</b></td>
<td><b>0.0835<br>(0.0556)</b></td>
<td><b>1.087<br>(0.975-1.212)</b></td>
</tr>
<tr class="topPad1">
<th class="stub0 top" scope="rowgroup">Married in 1973</th>
<td class="top">.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td class="top">.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td>-0.2524<br>(0.0414)*</td>
<td>0.777<br>(0.716-0.843)</td>
<td>-0.2317<br>(0.0415)*</td>
<td>0.793<br>(0.731-0.860)</td>
</tr>
<tr class="topPad1">
<th class="stub0" scope="rowgroup">Education (years)</th>
<td colspan="6"></td>
</tr>
<tr class="topPad1">
<th class="stub1 top" scope="row">Less than 12</th>
<td class="top">.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td class="top">.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td class="top">.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td class="top">.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td>0.4602<br>(0.0496)*</td>
<td>1.584<br>(1.438-1.746)</td>
</tr>
<tr class="topPad1">
<th class="stub1 top" scope="row">12 to 15</th>
<td class="top">.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td class="top">.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td class="top">.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td class="top">.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td>0.2323<br>(0.0508)*</td>
<td>1.262<br>(1.142-1.394)</td>
</tr>
<tr class="topPad1">
<th class="stub1 top" scope="row">16 or more</th>
<td>.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td>.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td>.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td>.&nbsp;.&nbsp;.</td>
<td>Reference variable</td>
<td>Reference variable</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
<tfoot>
<tr>
<td class="firstNote" colspan="7">SOURCE: Author's calculations using data from the 1973 Exact Match.</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="note" colspan="7">NOTES: .&nbsp;.&nbsp;. = not applicable.</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="note" colspan="7">* = standard error significant at the 5&nbsp;percent level.</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="note" colspan="7">** = standard error significant at the 10&nbsp;percent level.</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="lastNote" colspan="7">a. <abbr class="spell">yob</abbr> * (&lt;12 years of education) and <abbr class="spell">yob</abbr> * (<span class="nobr">12&ndash;15</span>&nbsp;years of education) significant in an interaction not shown here.</td>
</tr>
</tfoot>
</table>
</div>
<p>The difference in magnitude between race differentials and education differentials is shown in Chart&nbsp;1, which depicts the odds ratio reported in Tables&nbsp;1 and 2, equation&nbsp;3. For men aged&nbsp;25 to 64, the predicted odds of death for those with less than 12&nbsp;years of education were 2.6&nbsp;times the odds of death for the college educated, the predicted odds of death for those with 12 to 15&nbsp;years of education were 1.6&nbsp;times the odds of death of the college educated, and the predicted odds of death for blacks were 1.3&nbsp;times the odds of all other sample respondents. The magnitude of mortality differentials is lowered at older ages. Among all men aged&nbsp;65 to 90, the predicted odds of death for those with less than 12&nbsp;years of education were 1.6&nbsp;times the odds for the college educated, the predicted odds of death for those with 12 to 15&nbsp;years of education were 1.3&nbsp;times the odds for the college educated, and the predicated odds of death for blacks were 1.1&nbsp;times the predicted odds of death for all other sample respondents (but not significantly so). Note that for men aged&nbsp;25 to 64, the lower bound of the odds ratio for being black is 1.1 and the lower bound of the odds ratio for having 12 to 15&nbsp;years of education is 1.3, highlighting the greater power of the education variables in explaining mortality differences between men.</p>
<div class="chartCenter">
<div class="chart700" id="chart1">
<div class="title">Chart&nbsp;1.<br>Odds ratios for men aged&nbsp;25 to 64 and 65 to 90, by educational attainment</div>
<div class="scrollChart"><img itemprop="image" src="wp99_chart1.gif" alt="Box-and-whisker plot with tabular version below." width="650" height="605" /></div>
<div class="table altTable"><a class="altToggle" href="">Show as table</a>
<table>
<caption><span class="tableNumber">Table equivalent for Chart&nbsp;1. </span>Odds ratios for men aged&nbsp;25 to 64 and 65 to 90, by educational attainment</caption>
<colgroup span="1" style="width:15em"></colgroup>
<colgroup span="3" style="width:6em"></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="stubHeading" rowspan="2" scope="colgroup">Educational attainment</th>
<th class="spanner" colspan="3" scope="colgroup">Odds ratio</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<th scope="col">High</th>
<th scope="col">Low</th>
<th scope="col">Point</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row">Blacks aged&nbsp;25 to 64</th>
<td>1.569</td>
<td>1.074</td>
<td>1.298</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row">All races aged&nbsp;25 to 64; less than 12&nbsp;years of school</th>
<td>3.132</td>
<td>2.127</td>
<td>2.581</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row">All races aged&nbsp;25 to 64; 12 to 15&nbsp;years of school</th>
<td>1.897</td>
<td>1.313</td>
<td>1.578</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row">Blacks aged&nbsp;65 to 90</th>
<td>1.212</td>
<td>0.975</td>
<td>1.087</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row">All races aged&nbsp;65 to 90; less than 12&nbsp;years of school</th>
<td>1.746</td>
<td>1.438</td>
<td>1.584</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row">All races aged&nbsp;65 to 90; 12 to 15&nbsp;years of school</th>
<td>1.394</td>
<td>1.142</td>
<td>1.262</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
<tfoot>
<tr>
<td class="noNotes" colspan="4">&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
</tfoot>
</table>
</div>
<div class="firstNote">SOURCE: Author's calculations using data from the 1973 Exact Match.</div>
<div class="lastNote">NOTE: Reference variables are &quot;all other races&quot; and &quot;college educated,&quot; respectively.</div>
</div>
</div>
<p>The point estimate on race for ages&nbsp;25 to 64 may be slightly misleading because an interaction of race with age is significant in that age range and narrows the differential between blacks and all other races as individuals in the sample move from age&nbsp;25 to age&nbsp;64. The widest mortality differential appears at age&nbsp;25 and narrows quite a bit by age&nbsp;45 (illustrated in Chart&nbsp;2). The crossover at age&nbsp;55 is not significant and should be interpreted as showing that the differentials are statistically indistinguishable at ages&nbsp;55 to 60. Note that the ambiguous quality of race data makes it unclear how much of this age interaction is a reflection of actual events and how much is a reflection of measurement error.</p>
<div class="chartCenter">
<div class="chart700" id="chart2">
<div class="title">Chart&nbsp;2.<br>Mortality differentials at ages&nbsp;25 to 60 for unmarried black men and all other unmarried men born in 1940 with less than 12&nbsp;years of school</div>
<div class="scrollChart"><img src="wp99_chart2.gif" alt="Line chart with tabular version below." width="650" height="333" /></div>
<div class="table altTable"><a class="altToggle" href="">Show as table</a>
<table>
<caption><span class="tableNumber">Table equivalent for Chart&nbsp;2. </span>Mortality differentials at ages&nbsp;25 to 60 for unmarried black men and all other unmarried men born in 1940 with less than 12&nbsp;years of school</caption>
<colgroup span="1" style="width:4em"></colgroup>
<colgroup span="2" style="width:6em"></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="stubHeading" scope="col">Age</th>
<th scope="col">Blacks</th>
<th scope="col">All<br>other<br>men</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row">25</th>
<td>-5.1816</td>
<td>-6.3673</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row">30</th>
<td>-5.0126</td>
<td>-5.9978</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row">35</th>
<td>-4.8436</td>
<td>-5.6283</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row">40</th>
<td>-4.6746</td>
<td>-5.2588</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row">45</th>
<td>-4.5056</td>
<td>-4.8893</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row">50</th>
<td>-4.3366</td>
<td>-4.5198</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row">55</th>
<td>-4.1676</td>
<td>-4.1503</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row">60</th>
<td>-3.9986</td>
<td>-3.7808</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
<tfoot>
<tr>
<td class="noNotes" colspan="3">&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
</tfoot>
</table>
</div>
<div class="onlyNote">SOURCE: Author's calculations using data from the 1973 Exact Match.</div>
</div>
</div>
<h2>Trends in Educational Attainment Over Time</h2>
<p>Since a large portion of the difference in average life expectancy at age&nbsp;25 between black men and all other men is explained by differences in average educational achievement, it is instructive to examine how differences in the level of schooling between those groups have been changing over time. Overall, black men no longer complete high school at lower rates than do white men, but white men still complete college at greater rates than do black men. For the <span class="nobr">1908&ndash;1910</span> birth cohort, 22&nbsp;percent more black men did not complete high school; for the <span class="nobr">1968&ndash;1970</span> birth cohort, slightly more white men were high school dropouts (see Chart&nbsp;3).<sup><a href="#mn1" id="mt1">1</a></sup> Note that the average difference in high school completion by race did not drop below 10&nbsp;percent until the <span class="nobr">1941&ndash;1943</span> birth cohort and was not eliminated until the <span class="nobr">1959&ndash;1961</span> birth cohort. The percentage of black men with 12 to 15&nbsp;years of education surpassed the percentage of their white counterparts beginning with the <span class="nobr">1944&ndash;1946</span> birth cohort. The reason is that the percentage of white men completing college sharply increased in this time period. The percentage of white men obtaining a bachelor's degree has since dropped from its peak during the Vietnam War era, but there are still about 12&nbsp;percent more white men than black men with a bachelor's degree for the <span class="nobr">1968&ndash;1970</span> birth cohort (see Charts&nbsp;4 and 5).</p>
<div class="chartCenter">
<div class="chart700" id="chart3">
<div class="title">Chart&nbsp;3.<br>Educational attainment (less then 12&nbsp;years of school) of white and black men, by birth cohort</div>
<div class="scrollChart"><img src="wp99_chart3.gif" alt="Line chart with tabular version below." width="650" height="439" /></div>
<div class="table altTable"><a class="altToggle" href="">Show as table</a>
<table>
<caption><span class="tableNumber">Table equivalent for Chart&nbsp;3. </span>Educational attainment (less than 12&nbsp;years of school) of white and black men, by birth cohort</caption>
<colgroup span="1" style="width:10em"></colgroup>
<colgroup span="2" style="width:6em"></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="stubHeading" scope="col">Birth cohort</th>
<th scope="col">Whites</th>
<th scope="col">Blacks</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<th class="stub0 nobr" scope="row">1908&ndash;1910</th>
<td>59.3</td>
<td>82.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0 nobr" scope="row">1911&ndash;1913</th>
<td>56.0</td>
<td>74.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0 nobr" scope="row">1914&ndash;1916</th>
<td>47.6</td>
<td>78.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0 nobr" scope="row">1917&ndash;1919</th>
<td>40.6</td>
<td>77.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0 nobr" scope="row">1920&ndash;1922</th>
<td>36.9</td>
<td>71.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0 nobr" scope="row">1923&ndash;1925</th>
<td>35.5</td>
<td>68.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0 nobr" scope="row">1926&ndash;1928</th>
<td>35.0</td>
<td>69.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0 nobr" scope="row">1929&ndash;1932</th>
<td>29.3</td>
<td>57.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0 nobr" scope="row">1933&ndash;1934</th>
<td>26.4</td>
<td>53.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0 nobr" scope="row">1935&ndash;1937</th>
<td>27.6</td>
<td>56.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0 nobr" scope="row">1938&ndash;1940</th>
<td>25.0</td>
<td>48.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0 nobr" scope="row">1941&ndash;1943</th>
<td>21.1</td>
<td>41.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0 nobr" scope="row">1944&ndash;1946</th>
<td>18.1</td>
<td>26.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0 nobr" scope="row">1947&ndash;1949</th>
<td>13.6</td>
<td>24.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0 nobr" scope="row">1950&ndash;1952</th>
<td>12.4</td>
<td>23.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0 nobr" scope="row">1953&ndash;1955</th>
<td>11.7</td>
<td>20.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0 nobr" scope="row">1956&ndash;1958</th>
<td>12.8</td>
<td>18.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0 nobr" scope="row">1959&ndash;1961</th>
<td>15.8</td>
<td>17.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0 nobr" scope="row">1962&ndash;1964</th>
<td>13.2</td>
<td>14.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0 nobr" scope="row">1965&ndash;1967</th>
<td>12.8</td>
<td>9.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0 nobr" scope="row">1968&ndash;1970</th>
<td>13.3</td>
<td>11.5</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
<tfoot>
<tr>
<td class="noNotes" colspan="3">&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
</tfoot>
</table>
</div>
<div class="onlyNote">SOURCE: 1973 Exact Match (birth cohorts <span class="nobr">1908&ndash;1934</span>); 1965 to 2000 <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> (birth cohorts <span class="nobr">1935&ndash;1970</span>).</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="chartCenter">
<div class="chart700" id="chart4">
<div class="title">Chart&nbsp;4.<br>Educational attainment (<span class="nobr">12&ndash;15</span> years of school) of white and black men, by birth cohort</div>
<div class="scrollChart"><img src="wp99_chart4.gif" alt="Line chart with tabular version below." width="650" height="492" /></div>
<div class="table altTable"><a class="altToggle" href="">Show as table</a>
<table>
<caption><span class="tableNumber">Table equivalent for Chart&nbsp;4. </span>Educational attainment (<span class="nobr">12&ndash;15</span>&nbsp;years of school) of white and black men, by birth cohort</caption>
<colgroup span="1" style="width:10em"></colgroup>
<colgroup span="2" style="width:6em"></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="stubHeading" scope="col">Birth cohort</th>
<th scope="col">Whites</th>
<th scope="col">Blacks</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<th class="stub0 nobr" scope="row">1908&ndash;1910</th>
<td>29.7</td>
<td>13.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0 nobr" scope="row">1911&ndash;1913</th>
<td>33.8</td>
<td>19.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0 nobr" scope="row">1914&ndash;1916</th>
<td>41.1</td>
<td>17.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0 nobr" scope="row">1917&ndash;1919</th>
<td>47.2</td>
<td>17.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0 nobr" scope="row">1920&ndash;1922</th>
<td>50.0</td>
<td>22.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0 nobr" scope="row">1923&ndash;1925</th>
<td>48.3</td>
<td>25.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0 nobr" scope="row">1926&ndash;1928</th>
<td>46.9</td>
<td>26.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0 nobr" scope="row">1929&ndash;1932</th>
<td>49.5</td>
<td>33.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0 nobr" scope="row">1933&ndash;1934</th>
<td>52.1</td>
<td>39.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0 nobr" scope="row">1935&ndash;1937</th>
<td>52.7</td>
<td>39.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0 nobr" scope="row">1938&ndash;1940</th>
<td>54.5</td>
<td>46.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0 nobr" scope="row">1941&ndash;1943</th>
<td>54.8</td>
<td>49.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0 nobr" scope="row">1944&ndash;1946</th>
<td>56.3</td>
<td>62.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0 nobr" scope="row">1947&ndash;1949</th>
<td>55.4</td>
<td>60.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0 nobr" scope="row">1950&ndash;1952</th>
<td>57.6</td>
<td>61.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0 nobr" scope="row">1953&ndash;1955</th>
<td>61.0</td>
<td>63.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0 nobr" scope="row">1956&ndash;1958</th>
<td>60.9</td>
<td>68.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0 nobr" scope="row">1959&ndash;1961</th>
<td>60.5</td>
<td>69.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0 nobr" scope="row">1962&ndash;1964</th>
<td>62.9</td>
<td>71.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0 nobr" scope="row">1965&ndash;1967</th>
<td>62.1</td>
<td>77.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0 nobr" scope="row">1968&ndash;1970</th>
<td>60.0</td>
<td>73.4</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
<tfoot>
<tr>
<td class="noNotes" colspan="3">&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
</tfoot>
</table>
</div>
<div class="onlyNote">SOURCE: 1973 Exact Match (birth cohorts <span class="nobr">1908&ndash;1934</span>); 1965 to 2000 <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> (birth cohorts <span class="nobr">1935&ndash;1970</span>).</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="chartCenter">
<div class="chart700" id="chart5">
<div class="title">Chart&nbsp;5.<br>Educational attainment (16 or more years of school) of white and black men, by birth cohort</div>
<div class="scrollChart"><img src="wp99_chart5.gif" alt="Line chart with tabular version below." width="649" height="371" /></div>
<div class="table altTable"><a class="altToggle" href="">Show as table</a>
<table>
<caption><span class="tableNumber">Table equivalent for Chart&nbsp;5. </span>Educational attainment (16 or more years of school) of white and black men, by birth cohort</caption>
<colgroup span="1" style="width:10em"></colgroup>
<colgroup span="2" style="width:6em"></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="stubHeading" scope="col">Birth cohort</th>
<th scope="col">Whites</th>
<th scope="col">Blacks</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<th class="stub0 nobr" scope="row">1908&ndash;1910</th>
<td>11.0</td>
<td>4.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0 nobr" scope="row">1911&ndash;1913</th>
<td>10.2</td>
<td>5.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0 nobr" scope="row">1914&ndash;1916</th>
<td>11.4</td>
<td>5.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0 nobr" scope="row">1917&ndash;1919</th>
<td>12.2</td>
<td>8.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0 nobr" scope="row">1920&ndash;1922</th>
<td>13.1</td>
<td>5.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0 nobr" scope="row">1923&ndash;1925</th>
<td>16.2</td>
<td>5.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0 nobr" scope="row">1926&ndash;1928</th>
<td>18.1</td>
<td>3.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0 nobr" scope="row">1929&ndash;1932</th>
<td>21.2</td>
<td>10.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0 nobr" scope="row">1933&ndash;1934</th>
<td>21.4</td>
<td>7.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0 nobr" scope="row">1935&ndash;1937</th>
<td>19.7</td>
<td>3.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0 nobr" scope="row">1938&ndash;1940</th>
<td>20.5</td>
<td>5.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0 nobr" scope="row">1941&ndash;1943</th>
<td>24.1</td>
<td>9.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0 nobr" scope="row">1944&ndash;1946</th>
<td>25.6</td>
<td>10.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0 nobr" scope="row">1947&ndash;1949</th>
<td>31.0</td>
<td>14.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0 nobr" scope="row">1950&ndash;1952</th>
<td>30.0</td>
<td>15.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0 nobr" scope="row">1953&ndash;1955</th>
<td>27.3</td>
<td>15.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0 nobr" scope="row">1956&ndash;1958</th>
<td>26.3</td>
<td>12.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0 nobr" scope="row">1959&ndash;1961</th>
<td>23.8</td>
<td>13.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0 nobr" scope="row">1962&ndash;1964</th>
<td>23.9</td>
<td>14.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0 nobr" scope="row">1965&ndash;1967</th>
<td>25.2</td>
<td>13.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0 nobr" scope="row">1968&ndash;1970</th>
<td>26.8</td>
<td>15.1</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
<tfoot>
<tr>
<td class="noNotes" colspan="3">&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
</tfoot>
</table>
</div>
<div class="onlyNote">SOURCE: 1973 Exact Match (birth cohorts <span class="nobr">1908&ndash;1934</span>); 1965 to 2000 <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> (birth cohorts <span class="nobr">1935&ndash;1970</span>).</div>
</div>
</div>
<p>The median annual earnings of college graduates have been rising relative to those of high school graduates since 1980 (see Chart&nbsp;6). How this will translate into mortality risk differences between the black and white population depends in part on whether education affects mortality through its impact on lifetime earnings, through the beneficial effects of a higher level of education on one's ability to learn healthy behaviors, or through its impact on an individual's relative (not absolute) rank in the income distribution. There is currently no consensus on this question.</p>
<div class="chartCenter">
<div class="chart700" id="chart6">
<div class="title">Chart&nbsp;6.<br>Ratio of median annual earnings of college graduates aged&nbsp;25 to 34 relative to high school graduates aged&nbsp;25 to 34</div>
<div class="scrollChart"><img src="wp99_chart6.gif" alt="Line chart with tabular version below." width="623" height="323" /></div>
<div class="table altTable"><a class="altToggle" href="">Show as table</a>
<table>
<caption><span class="tableNumber">Table equivalent for Chart&nbsp;6. </span>Ratio of median annual earnings of college graduates aged&nbsp;25 to 34 relative to high school graduates aged&nbsp;25 to 34</caption>
<colgroup span="1" style="width:4em"></colgroup>
<colgroup span="1" style="width:15em"></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="stubHeading" scope="col">Year</th>
<th scope="col">Ratio, bachelor's degree<br>or higher level of<br>education relative to<br>a high school diploma</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row">1970</th>
<td>1.24</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row">1971</th>
<td>1.22</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row">1972</th>
<td>1.18</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row">1973</th>
<td>1.16</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row">1974</th>
<td>1.14</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row">1975</th>
<td>1.17</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row">1976</th>
<td>1.19</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row">1977</th>
<td>1.18</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row">1978</th>
<td>1.18</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row">1979</th>
<td>1.16</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row">1980</th>
<td>1.19</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row">1981</th>
<td>1.29</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row">1982</th>
<td>1.34</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row">1983</th>
<td>1.35</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row">1984</th>
<td>1.36</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row">1985</th>
<td>1.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row">1986</th>
<td>1.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row">1987</th>
<td>1.49</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row">1988</th>
<td>1.42</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row">1989</th>
<td>1.45</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row">1990</th>
<td>1.48</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row">1991</th>
<td>1.53</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row">1992</th>
<td>1.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row">1993</th>
<td>1.57</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row">1994</th>
<td>1.52</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row">1995</th>
<td>1.55</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row">1996</th>
<td>1.56</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row">1997</th>
<td>1.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row">1998</th>
<td>1.56</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="stub0" scope="row">1999</th>
<td>1.58</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
<tfoot>
<tr>
<td class="noNotes" colspan="2">&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
</tfoot>
</table>
</div>
<div class="onlyNote">SOURCE: National Center for Education Statistics, <i>The Condition of Education (2001)</i>, Table&nbsp;<span class="nobr">18&ndash;2</span>.</div>
</div>
</div>
<div id="notes">
<h2>Notes</h2>
<p>&ensp;<a href="#mt1" id="mn1">1</a>. In Charts&nbsp;<span class="nobr">3&ndash;5</span>, data for birth cohorts 1908 to 1934 are not directly comparable with data for birth cohorts 1935 to 1970. For birth cohorts 1908 to 1934, level of education is observed in 1973 at ages&nbsp;39 to 65 in the 1973 Exact Match; for birth cohorts 1935 to 1970, level of education is observed at age&nbsp;30 in the 1965 to 2000 Current Population Surveys, respectively. The education variable in the <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> for 1992 and later is not directly comparable with <span class="nobr">pre-1992</span> data; so after 1992, <abbr class="spell">CPS</abbr> education categories &quot;38 to 42&quot; are included here in the 12 to 15&nbsp;years of education category.</p>
</div>
<div id="references">
<h2>References</h2>
<p>Elo, Irma T., and Samuel&nbsp;H. Preston. 1994. &quot;Estimating African-American Mortality from Inaccurate Data.&quot; <i>Demography</i> <span class="nobr">31(3):</span>&nbsp;<span class="nobr">427&ndash;458</span>.</p>
<p>&mdash;&mdash;&mdash;. 1996. &quot;Educational Differentials in Mortality: United States, <span class="nobr">1979&ndash;85</span>.&quot; <i>Social Science and Medicine</i> <span class="nobr">42(1):</span>&nbsp;<span class="nobr">47&ndash;57</span>.</p>
<p>Lillard, Lee, and Constantijn W.A. Panis. 1996. &quot;Socioeconomic Differentials in the Returns to Social Security.&quot; Contract report for <abbr>RAND</abbr>, Santa Monica, California. February.</p>
<p>&mdash;&mdash;&mdash;. 1998. &quot;Income and Mortality: The Role of Health.&quot; Contract report for <abbr>RAND</abbr>, Santa Monica, California. February.</p>
<p>McDonough, Peggy; Greg&nbsp;J. Duncan; David Williams; and James House. 1997. &quot;Income Dynamics and Adult Mortality in the United States, 1972 through 1989.&quot; <i>American Journal of Public Health</i> <span class="nobr">87(9):</span>&nbsp;<span class="nobr">1476&ndash;1483</span>.</p>
<p>Menchik, Paul&nbsp;L. 1993. &quot;Economic Status as a Determinant of Mortality Among Black and White Older Men: Does Poverty Kill?&quot; <i>Population Studies</i> 47:&nbsp;<span class="nobr">427&ndash;436</span>.</p>
<p>Rogers, Richard&nbsp;G. 1992. &quot;Living and Dying in the <abbr class="spell">U.S.A.</abbr>: Sociodemographic
Determinants of Death Among Blacks and Whites.&quot; <i>Demography</i> <span class="nobr">29(2):</span>&nbsp;<span class="nobr">287&ndash;303</span>.</p>
<p>Sorlie, Paul&nbsp;D.; Eric Backlund; and Jacob&nbsp;B. Keller. 1995. &quot;<abbr class="spell">U.S.</abbr> Mortality by Economic, Demographic, and Social Characteristics: The National Longitudinal Mortality Study.&quot; <i>American Journal of Public Health</i> <span class="nobr">85(7):</span>&nbsp;<span class="nobr">949&ndash;956</span>.</p>
<p>Sorlie, Paul; Eugene Rogot; Roger Anderson; Norman&nbsp;J. Johnson; and Eric Backlund. 1992. &quot;Black-White Mortality Differences by Family Income.&quot; <i>The Lancet</i> 340:&nbsp;<span class="nobr">346&ndash;350</span>.</p>
<p><abbr class="spell">U.S.</abbr> Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics. 2001. <i>The Condition of Education 2001</i>. <abbr class="spell">NCES</abbr>&nbsp;<span class="nobr">2001&ndash;072</span>. Washington, <abbr class="spell">D.C.</abbr>: <abbr class="spell">U.S.</abbr> Government Printing Office.</p>
<p>Waldron, Hilary. 2001. <i>Links Between Early Retirement and Mortality</i>. <abbr class="spell">ORES</abbr> Working Paper <abbr title="Number">No.</abbr>&nbsp;93. Social Security Administration, Office of Policy, Office of Research,
Evaluation, and Statistics. August.</p>
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