ssa-gov/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/index.html
2025-02-19 12:17:21 -08:00

264 lines
No EOL
40 KiB
HTML

<!doctype html>
<html class="no-js" lang="en">
<head>
<meta charset="UTF-8" /><meta http-equiv="X-UA-Compatible" content="IE=edge,chrome=1" /><meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1" />
<title>Policy Option Projections</title>
<meta name="dc.identifier" content="https://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/index.html" />
<meta name="DCTERMS:contentOffice" content="ORDP:ORES" />
<meta name="DCTERMS:contentOwner" content="publications@ssa.gov" />
<meta name="DCTERMS:coderOffice" content="ORDP:ORES:OD" />
<meta name="DCTERMS:coder" content="op.webmaster@ssa.gov" />
<meta name="DCTERMS:dateCertified" content="2025-01-01" />
<meta name="description" content="Social Security Administration Research, Statistics, and Policy Analysis" />
<!-- STYLES & SCRIPTS -->
<script src="https://code.jquery.com/jquery-3.7.1.min.js" integrity="sha256-/JqT3SQfawRcv/BIHPThkBvs0OEvtFFmqPF/lYI/Cxo=" crossorigin="anonymous"></script>
<link href="/framework/css/phoenix.css" rel="stylesheet" media="all" />
<link href="/policy/styles/nav.css" rel="stylesheet" media="all" />
<link href="/policy/styles/nav-shared.css" rel="stylesheet" media="all" />
<!-- SSA INTERNET HEAD SCRIPTS -->
<script src="/framework/js/ssa.internet.head.js"></script>
<script>(window.BOOMR_mq=window.BOOMR_mq||[]).push(["addVar",{"rua.upush":"false","rua.cpush":"false","rua.upre":"false","rua.cpre":"false","rua.uprl":"false","rua.cprl":"false","rua.cprf":"false","rua.trans":"SJ-3a3bb884-f513-47e3-a86c-84bab05e21dc","rua.cook":"true","rua.ims":"false","rua.ufprl":"false","rua.cfprl":"false","rua.isuxp":"false","rua.texp":"norulematch","rua.ceh":"false","rua.ueh":"false","rua.ieh.st":"0"}]);</script>
<script>!function(e){var n="https://s.go-mpulse.net/boomerang/";if("False"=="True")e.BOOMR_config=e.BOOMR_config||{},e.BOOMR_config.PageParams=e.BOOMR_config.PageParams||{},e.BOOMR_config.PageParams.pci=!0,n="https://s2.go-mpulse.net/boomerang/";if(window.BOOMR_API_key="LERZW-HECFS-R8H4E-23UQ7-ERMQB",function(){function e(){if(!o){var e=document.createElement("script");e.id="boomr-scr-as",e.src=window.BOOMR.url,e.async=!0,i.parentNode.appendChild(e),o=!0}}function t(e){o=!0;var n,t,a,r,d=document,O=window;if(window.BOOMR.snippetMethod=e?"if":"i",t=function(e,n){var t=d.createElement("script");t.id=n||"boomr-if-as",t.src=window.BOOMR.url,BOOMR_lstart=(new Date).getTime(),e=e||d.body,e.appendChild(t)},!window.addEventListener&&window.attachEvent&&navigator.userAgent.match(/MSIE [67]\./))return window.BOOMR.snippetMethod="s",void t(i.parentNode,"boomr-async");a=document.createElement("IFRAME"),a.src="about:blank",a.title="",a.role="presentation",a.loading="eager",r=(a.frameElement||a).style,r.width=0,r.height=0,r.border=0,r.display="none",i.parentNode.appendChild(a);try{O=a.contentWindow,d=O.document.open()}catch(_){n=document.domain,a.src="javascript:var d=document.open();d.domain='"+n+"';void(0);",O=a.contentWindow,d=O.document.open()}if(n)d._boomrl=function(){this.domain=n,t()},d.write("<bo"+"dy onload='document._boomrl();'>");else if(O._boomrl=function(){t()},O.addEventListener)O.addEventListener("load",O._boomrl,!1);else if(O.attachEvent)O.attachEvent("onload",O._boomrl);d.close()}function a(e){window.BOOMR_onload=e&&e.timeStamp||(new Date).getTime()}if(!window.BOOMR||!window.BOOMR.version&&!window.BOOMR.snippetExecuted){window.BOOMR=window.BOOMR||{},window.BOOMR.snippetStart=(new Date).getTime(),window.BOOMR.snippetExecuted=!0,window.BOOMR.snippetVersion=12,window.BOOMR.url=n+"LERZW-HECFS-R8H4E-23UQ7-ERMQB";var i=document.currentScript||document.getElementsByTagName("script")[0],o=!1,r=document.createElement("link");if(r.relList&&"function"==typeof r.relList.supports&&r.relList.supports("preload")&&"as"in r)window.BOOMR.snippetMethod="p",r.href=window.BOOMR.url,r.rel="preload",r.as="script",r.addEventListener("load",e),r.addEventListener("error",function(){t(!0)}),setTimeout(function(){if(!o)t(!0)},3e3),BOOMR_lstart=(new Date).getTime(),i.parentNode.appendChild(r);else t(!1);if(window.addEventListener)window.addEventListener("load",a,!1);else if(window.attachEvent)window.attachEvent("onload",a)}}(),"".length>0)if(e&&"performance"in e&&e.performance&&"function"==typeof e.performance.setResourceTimingBufferSize)e.performance.setResourceTimingBufferSize();!function(){if(BOOMR=e.BOOMR||{},BOOMR.plugins=BOOMR.plugins||{},!BOOMR.plugins.AK){var n="false"=="true"?1:0,t="cookiepresent",a="eyd7g6aaiaaamjqacqdfqaaaabt3moqc-f-d3d8100bf-clienttons-s.akamaihd.net",i="false"=="true"?2:1,o={"ak.v":"39","ak.cp":"1204614","ak.ai":parseInt("728289",10),"ak.ol":"0","ak.cr":4,"ak.ipv":6,"ak.proto":"h2","ak.rid":"14c842e5","ak.r":19138,"ak.a2":n,"ak.m":"dsca","ak.n":"essl","ak.bpcip":"2607:f378:40:6::","ak.cport":40596,"ak.gh":"23.60.168.62","ak.quicv":"","ak.tlsv":"tls1.3","ak.0rtt":"","ak.0rtt.ed":"","ak.csrc":"-","ak.acc":"","ak.t":"1739995650","ak.ak":"hOBiQwZUYzCg5VSAfCLimQ==v6BLSBpWQRbJ7uOH1vRie2sw5xWXG31COnmpbWQiepsugkgjyxa2LrpKUVeJp+KdvLHL6CO+y7YvaH6ryUhv4zaLMUkjjugfrnHi92W+8qkcchkBLXW9l/z+PnfykuXp+CPFmMy+MuEwt6ataxGvtWxusSR8kO6/P7eyEPHWkklnz0Iv5+wkYH0JlfJNe0eT4/JjsQZioU0qjT14UDil7uyTvbisNqSRxZVMBl0j61dcy+o6fjXmL7pgjCNaFVZmp29qDwXo+HMH4Zeyz5OcQdFQSZ+jqurKEtXn8NIpoo9WRzyFb4e3Doq8CXYvjnz4JLv/4xSlHAJ7ejynJPzlJpf8mZXHkxaKTB0WbGuwKuB9dWz/E3TdmyWS/2Kmad2EfkRmg66nzaQKi0TIVPhVRNJEdTABhEk4MF3JTdoeiGc=","ak.pv":"98","ak.dpoabenc":"","ak.tf":i};if(""!==t)o["ak.ruds"]=t;var r={i:!1,av:function(n){var t="http.initiator";if(n&&(!n[t]||"spa_hard"===n[t]))o["ak.feo"]=void 0!==e.aFeoApplied?1:0,BOOMR.addVar(o)},rv:function(){var e=["ak.bpcip","ak.cport","ak.cr","ak.csrc","ak.gh","ak.ipv","ak.m","ak.n","ak.ol","ak.proto","ak.quicv","ak.tlsv","ak.0rtt","ak.0rtt.ed","ak.r","ak.acc","ak.t","ak.tf"];BOOMR.removeVar(e)}};BOOMR.plugins.AK={akVars:o,akDNSPreFetchDomain:a,init:function(){if(!r.i){var e=BOOMR.subscribe;e("before_beacon",r.av,null,null),e("onbeacon",r.rv,null,null),r.i=!0}return this},is_complete:function(){return!0}}}}()}(window);</script></head>
<body class="PPO">
<div id="page">
<div class="bg-dark-gray accessibility" id="accessibility"><a id="skip-navigation" href="#content">Skip to main content</a></div><ssa-header class="print-hide"><noscript><header class="banner-neo" id="banner" role="banner" style="background-color: #0b4778;"><div class="banner-wrapper"><h1 class="banner-logo"><a class="banner-logo__link" href="/">Social Security</a></h1><nav class="banner-nav" id="banner-nav"><a class="banner-nav__link banner-search" href="https://search.ssa.gov/search?affiliate=ssa" title="Search" target="_blank"><svg class="banner-nav__icon" focusable="false" width="24" height="24" viewbox="0 0 24 24"><path d="M 10 23 C 11.219 23 12.384 22.762 13.496 22.285 C 14.608 21.808 15.565 21.169 16.367 20.367 C 17.169 19.565 17.808 18.608 18.285 17.496 C 18.762 16.384 19 15.219 19 14 C 19 12.953 18.829 11.951 18.488 10.992 C 18.147 10.033 17.661 9.164 17.031 8.383 L 22.711 2.711 C 22.904 2.518 23 2.281 23 2 C 23 1.713 22.905 1.475 22.715 1.285 C 22.525 1.095 22.287 1 22 1 C 21.719 1 21.482 1.096 21.289 1.289 L 15.617 6.969 C 14.836 6.339 13.966 5.853 13.008 5.512 C 12.05 5.171 11.047 5 10 5 C 8.781 5 7.616 5.238 6.504 5.715 C 5.392 6.192 4.435 6.831 3.633 7.633 C 2.831 8.435 2.192 9.392 1.715 10.504 C 1.238 11.616 1 12.781 1 14 C 1 15.219 1.238 16.384 1.715 17.496 C 2.192 18.608 2.831 19.565 3.633 20.367 C 4.435 21.169 5.392 21.808 6.504 22.285 C 7.616 22.762 8.781 23 10 23 Z M 10 21 C 9.052 21 8.146 20.815 7.281 20.445 C 6.416 20.075 5.672 19.578 5.047 18.953 C 4.422 18.328 3.925 17.584 3.555 16.719 C 3.185 15.854 3 14.948 3 14 C 3 13.052 3.185 12.146 3.555 11.281 C 3.925 10.416 4.422 9.672 5.047 9.047 C 5.672 8.422 6.416 7.925 7.281 7.555 C 8.146 7.185 9.052 7 10 7 C 10.948 7 11.854 7.185 12.719 7.555 C 13.584 7.925 14.328 8.422 14.953 9.047 C 15.578 9.672 16.075 10.416 16.445 11.281 C 16.815 12.146 17 13.052 17 14 C 17 14.948 16.815 15.854 16.445 16.719 C 16.075 17.584 15.578 18.328 14.953 18.953 C 14.328 19.578 13.584 20.075 12.719 20.445 C 11.854 20.815 10.948 21 10 21 Z" transform="matrix(-1, 0, 0, -1, 24.000001, 24.000001)" vector-effect="non-scaling-stroke"></path></svg> <span>Search</span> </a><a class="banner-nav__link banner-menu" href="/menu" id="ssa-menu" title="Menu"><svg class="banner-nav__icon" focusable="false" width="24" height="24" viewbox="0 0 24 24"><path d="M3 5h18q.414 0 .707.293T22 6t-.293.707T21 7H3q-.414 0-.707-.293T2 6t.293-.707T3 5zm0 12h18q.414 0 .707.293T22 18t-.293.707T21 19H3q-.414 0-.707-.293T2 18t.293-.707T3 17zm0-6h18q.414 0 .707.293T22 12t-.293.707T21 13H3q-.414 0-.707-.293T2 12t.293-.707T3 11z" vector-effect="non-scaling-stroke"></path></svg> <span>Menu</span> </a><a class="banner-nav__link banner-languages" href="/es" id="ssa-languages" title="Español" hreflang="es"><svg class="banner-nav__icon" focusable="false" width="24" height="24" viewbox="0 0 24 24"><path d="M12 0C5.373 0 0 5.373 0 12s5.373 12 12 12c.812 0 1.604-.08 2.37-.235-.31-.147-.343-1.255-.037-1.887.34-.703 1.406-2.485.35-3.08-1.053-.6-.76-.868-1.405-1.56-.644-.692-.38-.796-.422-.974-.14-.61.62-1.523.656-1.616.035-.094.035-.446.023-.55-.012-.107-.48-.387-.597-.4-.117-.01-.176.188-.34.2-.164.012-.88-.433-1.03-.55-.154-.117-.224-.398-.435-.61-.21-.212-.235-.047-.562-.175-.327-.13-1.382-.516-2.19-.844-.81-.33-.88-.79-.892-1.114-.012-.325-.492-.797-.718-1.137-.225-.342-.267-.81-.348-.705-.082.106.422 1.336.34 1.37-.083.037-.26-.338-.493-.643-.235-.304.245-.14-.505-1.617-.75-1.476.235-2.23.282-3 .048-.77.633.28.328-.21-.304-.493.023-1.524-.21-1.9-.235-.374-1.57.423-1.57.423.034-.363 1.17-.985 1.99-1.56.82-.573 1.322-.128 1.982.083.66.21.703.142.48-.07-.222-.21.094-.316.61-.235.516.082.656.704 1.442.645.784-.06.08.152.186.35.105.2-.117.177-.633.53-.516.35.012.35.926 1.02.913.667.632-.447.538-.94-.094-.49.668-.105.668-.105.563.375.46.02.87.15.408.13 1.52 1.07 1.52 1.07-1.395.762-.516.844-.282 1.02.235.175-.48.515-.48.515-.294-.293-.34.012-.528.117-.187.105-.012.375-.012.375-.97.153-.75 1.173-.738 1.418.012.247-.62.622-.786.973-.164.35.423 1.113.117 1.16-.305.048-.61-1.148-2.25-.703-.495.134-1.593.703-1.008 1.863.585 1.16 1.558-.328 1.886-.164.33.163-.093.902-.023.913.07.012.927.033.974 1.032.048 1 1.3.914 1.57.938.27.023 1.173-.74 1.3-.774.13-.035.646-.47 1.77.175 1.126.644 1.7.55 2.086.82.387.27.117.81.48.985.365.176 1.818-.058 2.18.54.364.597-1.5 3.597-2.085 3.925-.586.328-.856 1.078-1.442 1.558-.69.563-1.418 1.076-2.18 1.535-.684.407-.807 1.137-1.112 1.367C19.984 22.52 24 17.73 24 12c0-6.627-5.373-12-12-12zm2.813 11.262c-.165.047-.504.352-1.336-.14-.832-.494-1.406-.4-1.477-.48 0 0-.07-.2.293-.236.747-.072 1.688.692 1.9.704.21.012.315-.21.69-.09.375.12.094.195-.07.242zM10.887 1.196c-.082-.06.068-.128.157-.246.05-.07.013-.182.078-.246.175-.177 1.043-.423.874.058-.17.48-.98.527-1.11.434zm2.098 1.523c-.293-.013-.983-.086-.856-.212.494-.492-.188-.633-.61-.668-.423-.036-.598-.27-.388-.294.21-.024 1.055.013 1.196.13.14.117.902.422.95.644.047.223 0 .41-.293.4zm2.542-.083c-.234.188-1.413-.673-1.64-.867-.985-.844-1.513-.563-1.72-.703-.206-.142-.132-.33.184-.61.318-.282 1.21.094 1.724.152.516.058 1.113.457 1.125.93.01.474.562.91.327 1.097z" vector-effect="non-scaling-stroke"></path></svg> <span>Español</span> </a><a class="banner-nav__link banner-signin" href="https://secure.ssa.gov/RIL/SiView.action" id="ssa-signin" title="Sign in" target="_blank"><svg class="banner-nav__icon" focusable="false" width="24" height="24" viewbox="0 0 24 24"><path d="M12 17.016q-.797 0-1.406-.61t-.61-1.405.61-1.405 1.406-.61 1.406.61.61 1.406-.61 1.407-1.406.61zm6 3V9.986H6v10.03h12zm-6-17.11q-1.266 0-2.18.914T8.906 6H9v2.016h6.094V6q0-1.266-.914-2.18T12 2.906zm6 5.11q.797 0 1.406.586t.61 1.383v10.03q0 .798-.61 1.384T18 21.984H6q-.797 0-1.406-.586t-.61-1.384V9.986q0-.798.61-1.384T6 8.016h.984V6q0-2.063 1.477-3.54T12 .985t3.54 1.477T17.015 6v2.016H18z" vector-effect="non-scaling-stroke"></path></svg> <span>Sign in</span></a></nav></div></header></noscript></ssa-header><script src="https://www.ssa.gov/legacy/components/dist/ssa-header.js"></script>
<div id="title-bar"><h2>Research, Statistics &amp; Policy Analysis</h2></div>
<div class="rMenuBtn show-phone" id="rMenuBtn">&#9776;&nbsp;Browse publications</div>
<div id="content" role="main">
<div class="grid">
<div class="breadRSPA" itemscope itemtype="http://schema.org/BreadcrumbList">You are here: <span itemprop="itemListElement" itemscope itemtype="http://schema.org/ListItem"><a href="/" itemprop="item"><span itemprop="name">Social Security Administration</span></a><meta itemprop="position" content="1" /></span> &gt; <span itemprop="itemListElement" itemscope itemtype="http://schema.org/ListItem"><a href="/policy/index.html" itemprop="item"><span itemprop="name">Research, Statistics &amp; Policy Analysis</span></a><meta itemprop="position" content="2" /></span> &gt; <span itemprop="itemListElement" itemscope itemtype="http://schema.org/ListItem"><a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/index.html" itemprop="item"><span itemprop="name">Policy Option Projections</span></a><meta itemprop="position" content="3" /></span></div>
<div class="row-12">
<div class="column-3 leftNav"><nav class="rMenu" id="rMenu" role="navigation" aria-label="Main Navigation">
<ul>
<li id="RSH"><a href="/policy/index.html">Research &amp; Statistics Home</a></li>
<li class="hasFly menu1a" id="RA"><a href="#" aria-haspopup="true" aria-expanded="false">Research &amp; Analysis</a>
<ul>
<li><a href="/policy/docs/progdesc/intl_update/index.html">International Update</a></li>
<li><a href="/policy/research.html?type=Issue%20Paper">Issue Papers</a></li>
<li><a href="/policy/research.html?type=ORES%20Working%20Paper"><abbr class="spell">ORES</abbr> Working Papers</a></li>
<li><a href="/policy/research.html?type=Policy%20Brief">Policy Briefs</a></li>
<li><a href="/policy/research.html?type=Research%20and%20Statistics%20Note">Research &amp; Statistics Notes</a></li>
<li><a href="/policy/research.html?type=Research%20Summary">Research Summaries</a></li>
<li><a href="/policy/docs/ssb/index.html">Social Security Bulletin</a></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li class="menu2a"><a href="/policy/research.html" title="Research and Analysis Archives">Archives</a></li>
<li class="menu2a"><a href="/policy/author-index.html">Author index</a></li>
<li class="noClick menu1a" id="SDF"><a href="#" tabindex="-1">Statistics</a></li>
<li class="hasFly menu2a"> <a href="#" aria-haspopup="true" aria-expanded="false">Current editions</a>
<ul>
<li><a href="/policy/docs/statcomps/di_asr/index.html">Annual Statistical Report on the Social Security Disability Insurance Program</a></li>
<li><a href="/policy/docs/statcomps/supplement/index.html">Annual Statistical Supplement</a></li>
<li><a href="/policy/docs/factsheets/cong_stats/index.html">Congressional Statistics</a></li>
<li><a href="/policy/docs/chartbooks/di-ssi-employment/index.html"><abbr class="spell">DI</abbr> &amp; <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> Program Participants: Characteristics&nbsp;&amp; Employment</a></li>
<li><a href="/policy/docs/statcomps/eedata_sc/index.html">Earnings &amp; Employment Data..., by State &amp; County</a></li>
<li><a href="/policy/docs/chartbooks/expenditures_aged/index.html">Expenditures of the Aged Chartbook</a></li>
<li><a href="/policy/docs/chartbooks/fast_facts/index.html">Fast Facts &amp; Figures About Social Security</a></li>
<li><a href="/policy/docs/chartbooks/income_aged/index.html">Income of the Aged Chartbook</a></li>
<li><a href="/policy/docs/statcomps/income_pop55/index.html">Income of the Population 55 or Older</a></li>
<li><a href="/policy/docs/statcomps/nbs/index.html">National Beneficiary Survey: Disability Statistics</a></li>
<li><a href="/policy/docs/statcomps/oasdi_sc/index.html"><abbr class="spell">OASDI</abbr> Beneficiaries by State &amp; County</a></li>
<li><a href="/policy/docs/statcomps/oasdi_zip/index.html"><abbr class="spell">OASDI</abbr> Beneficiaries by State &amp; <abbr>ZIP</abbr> Code</a></li>
<li><a href="/policy/docs/statcomps/ssi_asr/index.html"><abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> Annual Statistical Report</a></li>
<li><a href="/policy/docs/statcomps/ssi_monthly/index.html"><abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> Monthly Statistics</a></li>
<li><a href="/policy/docs/statcomps/ssi_sc/index.html"><abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> Recipients by State &amp; County</a></li>
<li><a href="/policy/statistics.html?type=Statistics%20at%20a%20Glance">Statistics At a Glance</a></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li class="menu2b"> <a href="/policy/statistics.html" title="Statistics Archives">Archives</a></li>
<li class="menu1b" id="PUDF"><a href="/policy/docs/data/index.html">Public-Use Data Files</a></li>
<li class="hasFly menu1b" id="POP"><a href="#" aria-haspopup="true" aria-expanded="false">Population Profiles</a>
<ul>
<li><a href="/policy/docs/population-profiles/child-beneficiaries.html">Child Beneficiaries</a></li>
<li><a href="/policy/docs/population-profiles/child-beneficiary-families.html">Child Beneficiary Families</a></li>
<li><a href="/policy/docs/population-profiles/fully-insured-workers.html">Fully Insured Workers</a></li>
<li><a href="/policy/docs/population-profiles/marital-status-poverty.html">Marital Status &amp; Poverty</a></li>
<li><a href="/policy/docs/population-profiles/middle-class-beneficiaries.html">Middle Class Beneficiaries</a></li>
<li><a href="/policy/docs/population-profiles/never-beneficiaries.html">Never Beneficiaries</a></li>
<li><a href="/policy/docs/population-profiles/tax-max-earners.html">Taxable Maximum Earners</a></li>
<li><a href="/policy/docs/population-profiles/veteran-beneficiaries.html">Veteran Beneficiaries</a></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li class="hasFly menu1b" id="PE"><a href="#" aria-haspopup="true" aria-expanded="false">Program Explainers</a>
<ul>
<li><a href="/policy/docs/program-explainers/benefit-claiming-age.html">Benefit Claiming Age</a></li>
<li><a href="/policy/docs/program-explainers/government-pension-offset.html">Government Pension Offset</a></li>
<li><a href="/policy/docs/program-explainers/retirement-earnings-test.html">Retirement Earnings Test</a></li>
<li><a href="/policy/docs/program-explainers/scheduled-payable.html">Scheduled <abbr title="versus">vs.</abbr> Payable Benefits</a></li>
<li><a href="/policy/docs/program-explainers/special-minimum.html">Special Minimum Benefit</a></li>
<li><a href="/policy/docs/program-explainers/poverty-decline.html">Why Will Poverty Decline for Beneficiaries?</a></li>
<li><a href="/policy/docs/program-explainers/windfall-elimination-provision.html">Windfall Elimination Provision</a></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li class="noClick menu1a" id="PM"><a href="#" tabindex="-1">Projections</a></li>
<li class="hasFly menu2a" id="PFS"><a href="#" aria-haspopup="true" aria-expanded="false">Fact sheets</a>
<ul>
<li><a href="/policy/docs/projections/populations/divorced-spousal-2050.html">By beneficiary type</a></li>
<li><a href="/policy/docs/projections/populations/beneficiaries-60-or-older.html">By demographic group</a></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li class="hasFly menu2a" id="PPO"><a href="#" aria-haspopup="true" aria-expanded="false">Tables</a>
<ul>
<li><a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/index.html">Policy options/proposals</a></li>
<li><a href="/policy/docs/projections/tables/beneficiaries.html">Profile of beneficiaries by race &amp; ethnicity</a></li>
<li><a href="/policy/docs/projections/tables/taxpayers.html">Profile of taxpayers by race &amp; ethnicity</a></li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
</nav></div>
<div class="column-6">
<div id="docTitle">
<h3>Policy Option Projections</h3>
<div class="releaseDate">(released May 2024)</div>
</div>
<div class="container-blue">
<p>For each retirement policy option/proposal below, a set of tables covers the proposal's <a href="/policy/docs/projections/methodology.html">projected effects</a> <span class="nobr">on&mdash;</span></p>
<ul style="margin-top:.5em">
<li>Social Security benefits in 2030, 2050, and 2070</li>
<li>Social Security taxes paid in 2030, 2050, and 2070</li>
<li>Household income in 2030, 2050, and 2070</li>
<li>Poverty status in 2030, 2050, and 2070</li>
<li>Benefit/tax ratios for selected birth cohorts</li>
<li>Replacement rates for selected birth cohorts</li>
</ul>
</div>
<h4 id="toc">Policy option/proposal<span class="formatsHead">Available formats</span></h4>
<div id="fileList">
<div class="fileLink"><b>Cost-of-Living Adjustment (<abbr>COLA</abbr>) Changes</b></div>
<div class="fileLink">
<div class="stub1">Increase the <abbr>COLA</abbr></div>
<div class="stub2" style="font-size:88%;margin-left:1em">Base it on the <abbr class="spell">CPI</abbr> for the elderly <span class="nobr">(<abbr class="spell">CPI-E</abbr>)</span></div>
<div class="fileFormats"> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/increase-COLA-with-CPI-E.html"><img src="/policy/images/icons/html.png" alt="Increase the COLA - HTML." /></a> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/increase-COLA-with-CPI-E.pdf" rel="nofollow"><img src="/policy/images/icons/pdf.png" alt="Increase the COLA - PDF." /></a> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/increase-COLA-with-CPI-E.xlsx" rel="nofollow"><img src="/policy/images/icons/excel.png" alt="Increase the COLA - Excel." /></a> </div>
</div>
<div class="fileLink">
<div class="stub1">Reduce the <abbr>COLA</abbr></div>
<div class="stub2" style="font-size:88%;margin-left:1em">Base it on the Chained <abbr class="spell">CPI</abbr></div>
<div class="fileFormats"> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/reduce-COLA-with-chained-CPI.html"><img src="/policy/images/icons/html.png" alt="Reduce the COLA - HTML." /></a> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/reduce-COLA-with-chained-CPI.pdf" rel="nofollow"><img src="/policy/images/icons/pdf.png" alt="Reduce the COLA - PDF." /></a> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/reduce-COLA-with-chained-CPI.xlsx" rel="nofollow"><img src="/policy/images/icons/excel.png" alt="Reduce the COLA - Excel." /></a> </div>
</div>
<div class="fileLink margin-top"><b>Coverage Changes</b></div>
<div class="fileLink">
<div class="stub1">Cover all newly hired state and local workers</div>
<div class="fileFormats"> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/cover-state-local-workers.html"><img src="/policy/images/icons/html.png" alt="Cover state and local workers - HTML." /></a> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/cover-state-local-workers.pdf" rel="nofollow"><img src="/policy/images/icons/pdf.png" alt="Cover state and local workers - PDF." /></a> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/cover-state-local-workers.xlsx" rel="nofollow"><img src="/policy/images/icons/excel.png" alt="Cover state and local workers - Excel." /></a> </div>
</div>
<div class="fileLink margin-top"><b>Family Benefit Changes</b></div>
<div class="fileLink">
<div class="stub1">Create an alternative survivor benefit</div>
<div class="stub2" style="font-size:88%;margin-left:1em">Survivor receives the higher of the current-law benefit or an alternative benefit of 75% of the survivor's own benefit plus the deceased worker's <abbr class="spell">PIA</abbr></div>
<div class="fileFormats"> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/create-alternative-survivor-benefit.html"><img src="/policy/images/icons/html.png" alt="Alternative survivor benefit - HTML." /></a> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/create-alternative-survivor-benefit.pdf" rel="nofollow"><img src="/policy/images/icons/pdf.png" alt="Alternative survivor benefit - PDF." /></a> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/create-alternative-survivor-benefit.xlsx" rel="nofollow"><img src="/policy/images/icons/excel.png" alt="Alternative survivor benefit - Excel." /></a> </div>
</div>
<div class="fileLink">
<div class="stub1">Reduce marriage duration requirement for divorced spousal benefits</div>
<div class="stub2" style="font-size:88%;margin-left:1em">Allow divorced spouses who were married at least 5&nbsp;years to receive reduced benefits</div>
<div class="fileFormats"> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/reduce-marriage-duration-for-divorced.html"><img src="/policy/images/icons/html.png" alt="Reduce marriage requirement - HTML." /></a> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/reduce-marriage-duration-for-divorced.pdf" rel="nofollow"><img src="/policy/images/icons/pdf.png" alt="Reduce marriage requirement - PDF." /></a> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/reduce-marriage-duration-for-divorced.xlsx" rel="nofollow"><img src="/policy/images/icons/excel.png" alt="Reduce marriage requirement - Excel." /></a> </div>
</div>
<div class="fileLink">
<div class="stub1">Reduce spousal benefits</div>
<div class="stub2" style="font-size:88%;margin-left:1em">From 50% to 33% of the worker's <abbr class="spell">PIA</abbr></div>
<div class="fileFormats"> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/reduce-spousal-benefits.html"><img src="/policy/images/icons/html.png" alt="Reduce spousal benefits - HTML." /></a> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/reduce-spousal-benefits.pdf" rel="nofollow"><img src="/policy/images/icons/pdf.png" alt="Reduce spousal benefits - PDF." /></a> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/reduce-spousal-benefits.xlsx" rel="nofollow"><img src="/policy/images/icons/excel.png" alt="Reduce spousal benefits - Excel." /></a> </div>
</div>
<div class="fileLink margin-top"><b>Retirement Age Changes</b></div>
<div class="fileLink">
<div class="stub1">Increase the <abbr class="spell">EEA</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr></div>
<div class="stub2" style="font-size:88%;margin-left:1em">One month every 2&nbsp;years</div>
<div class="fileFormats"> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/increase-eea-and-fra.html"><img src="/policy/images/icons/html.png" alt="Increase the EEA and FRA - HTML." /></a> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/increase-eea-and-fra.pdf" rel="nofollow"><img src="/policy/images/icons/pdf.png" alt="Increase the EEA and FRA - PDF." /></a> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/increase-eea-and-fra.xlsx" rel="nofollow"><img src="/policy/images/icons/excel.png" alt="Increase the EEA and FRA - Excel." /></a> </div>
</div>
<div class="fileLink">
<div class="stub1">Increase the <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr></div>
<div class="stub2" style="font-size:88%;margin-left:1em">One month every 2&nbsp;years</div>
<div class="fileFormats"> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/increase-fra.html"><img src="/policy/images/icons/html.png" alt="Increase the FRA - HTML." /></a> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/increase-fra.pdf" rel="nofollow"><img src="/policy/images/icons/pdf.png" alt="Increase the FRA - PDF." /></a> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/increase-fra.xlsx" rel="nofollow"><img src="/policy/images/icons/excel.png" alt="Increase the FRA - Excel." /></a> </div>
</div>
<div class="fileLink">
<div class="stub1">Increase the <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> to&nbsp;68</div>
<div class="stub2" style="font-size:88%;margin-left:1em">One month every 2&nbsp;years</div>
<div class="fileFormats"> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/increase-fra-to-68.html"><img src="/policy/images/icons/html.png" alt="Increase the FRA to 68 - HTML." /></a> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/increase-fra-to-68.pdf" rel="nofollow"><img src="/policy/images/icons/pdf.png" alt="Increase the FRA to 68 - PDF." /></a> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/increase-fra-to-68.xlsx" rel="nofollow"><img src="/policy/images/icons/excel.png" alt="Increase the FRA to 68 - Excel." /></a> </div>
</div>
<div class="fileLink margin-top"><b>Social Security Payroll Tax Changes</b></div>
<div class="fileLink">
<div class="stub1">Count all earnings in payroll tax and benefit calculations</div>
<div class="fileFormats"> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/count-all-earnings.html"><img src="/policy/images/icons/html.png" alt="Count all earnings - HTML." /></a> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/count-all-earnings.pdf" rel="nofollow"><img src="/policy/images/icons/pdf.png" alt="Count all earnings - PDF." /></a> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/count-all-earnings.xlsx" rel="nofollow"><img src="/policy/images/icons/excel.png" alt="Count all earnings - Excel." /></a> </div>
</div>
<div class="fileLink">
<div class="stub1">Count 90% of earnings in payroll tax and benefit calculations; phase in <span class="nobr">2024&ndash;2033</span></div>
<div class="fileFormats"> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/count-90-percent-of-earnings.html"><img src="/policy/images/icons/html.png" alt="Count 90% of earnings - HTML." /></a> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/count-90-percent-of-earnings.pdf" rel="nofollow"><img src="/policy/images/icons/pdf.png" alt="Count 90% of earnings - PDF." /></a> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/count-90-percent-of-earnings.xlsx" rel="nofollow"><img src="/policy/images/icons/excel.png" alt="Count 90% of earnings - Excel." /></a> </div>
</div>
<div class="fileLink">
<div class="stub1">Increase payroll tax rate</div>
<div class="stub2" style="font-size:88%;margin-left:1em">From 12.4% to 16.2% in&nbsp;2034 and then to 20.0% in&nbsp;2064</div>
<div class="fileFormats"> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/increase-payroll-tax-rate.html"><img src="/policy/images/icons/html.png" alt="Increase payroll tax rate - HTML." /></a> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/increase-payroll-tax-rate.pdf" rel="nofollow"><img src="/policy/images/icons/pdf.png" alt="Increase payroll tax rate - PDF." /></a> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/increase-payroll-tax-rate.xlsx" rel="nofollow"><img src="/policy/images/icons/excel.png" alt="Increase payroll tax rate - Excel." /></a> </div>
</div>
<div class="fileLink margin-top"><b>Worker Benefit Changes</b></div>
<div class="fileLink">
<div class="stub1">Credit earnings to caregivers' records</div>
<div class="stub2" style="font-size:88%;margin-left:1em">Up to 5&nbsp;years at one-half average wage when caring for children under age&nbsp;6</div>
<div class="fileFormats"> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/credit-for-caregivers.html"><img src="/policy/images/icons/html.png" alt="Credit caregiver earnings - HTML." /></a> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/credit-for-caregivers.pdf" rel="nofollow"><img src="/policy/images/icons/pdf.png" alt="Credit caregiver earnings - PDF." /></a> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/credit-for-caregivers.xlsx" rel="nofollow"><img src="/policy/images/icons/excel.png" alt="Credit caregiver earnings - Excel." /></a> </div>
</div>
<div class="fileLink">
<div class="stub1">Eliminate the retirement earnings test</div>
<div class="stub2" style="font-size:88%;margin-left:1em">For all beneficiaries under <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr></div>
<div class="fileFormats"> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/eliminate-ret.html"><img src="/policy/images/icons/html.png" alt="Eliminate retirement earnings test - HTML." /></a> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/eliminate-ret.pdf" rel="nofollow"><img src="/policy/images/icons/pdf.png" alt="Eliminate retirement earnings test - PDF." /></a> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/eliminate-ret.xlsx" rel="nofollow"><img src="/policy/images/icons/excel.png" alt="Eliminate retirement earnings test - Excel." /></a> </div>
</div>
<div class="fileLink">
<div class="stub1">Increase benefits for older beneficiaries</div>
<div class="stub2" style="font-size:88%;margin-left:1em"><abbr class="spell">PIA</abbr> increase is phased-in starting at&nbsp;81 and by&nbsp;85 is 5% of the average retired-worker <abbr class="spell">PIA</abbr> in the year the beneficiary turns&nbsp;80</div>
<div class="fileFormats"> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/increase-older-benefits.html"><img src="/policy/images/icons/html.png" alt="Increase benefits for older beneficiaries - HTML." /></a> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/increase-older-benefits.pdf" rel="nofollow"><img src="/policy/images/icons/pdf.png" alt="Increase benefits for older beneficiaries - PDF." /></a> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/increase-older-benefits.xlsx" rel="nofollow"><img src="/policy/images/icons/excel.png" alt="Increase benefits for older beneficiaries - Excel." /></a> </div>
</div>
<div class="fileLink">
<div class="stub1">Increase the computation period</div>
<div class="stub2" style="font-size:88%;margin-left:1em">From 35&nbsp;years to 40&nbsp;years; phase in <span class="spell">2024&ndash;2032</span> (does not apply to Disability Insurance)</div>
<div class="fileFormats"> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/increase-comp-years-to-40.html"><img src="/policy/images/icons/html.png" alt="Increase the computation period - HTML." /></a> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/increase-comp-years-to-40.pdf" rel="nofollow"><img src="/policy/images/icons/pdf.png" alt="Increase the computation period - PDF." /></a> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/increase-comp-years-to-40.xlsx" rel="nofollow"><img src="/policy/images/icons/excel.png" alt="Increase the computation period - Excel." /></a> </div>
</div>
<div class="fileLink">
<div class="stub1">Index <abbr class="spell">PIA</abbr> factors to longevity</div>
<div class="stub2" style="font-size:88%;margin-left:1em">Multiply factors by the ratio of life expectancy at&nbsp;67 in&nbsp;2028 to the life expectancy at age&nbsp;67 in the 4th year prior to the year of initial benefit eligibility</div>
<div class="fileFormats"> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/index-pia-to-longevity.html"><img src="/policy/images/icons/html.png" alt="Index P I A factors to longevity - HTML." /></a> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/index-pia-to-longevity.pdf" rel="nofollow"><img src="/policy/images/icons/pdf.png" alt="Index P I A factors to longevity - PDF." /></a> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/index-pia-to-longevity.xlsx" rel="nofollow"><img src="/policy/images/icons/excel.png" alt="Index P I A factors to longevity - Excel." /></a> </div>
</div>
<div class="fileLink">
<div class="stub1">Price index the <abbr class="spell">PIA</abbr> formula for earners above the 30th&nbsp;percentile</div>
<div class="fileFormats"> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/price-index-pia-formula.html"><img src="/policy/images/icons/html.png" alt="Price index P I A formula - HTML." /></a> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/price-index-pia-formula.pdf" rel="nofollow"><img src="/policy/images/icons/pdf.png" alt="Price index P I A formula - PDF." /></a> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/price-index-pia-formula.xlsx" rel="nofollow"><img src="/policy/images/icons/excel.png" alt="Price index P I A formula - Excel." /></a> </div>
</div>
<div class="fileLink">
<div class="stub1">Reconfigure the minimum benefit</div>
<div class="stub2" style="font-size:88%;margin-left:1em">For workers with 10&nbsp;to 30&nbsp;years of coverage (<abbr class="spell">YOC</abbr>&nbsp;= 4&nbsp;quarters earned that year) set <abbr class="spell">PIA</abbr> up to 125% of the monthly poverty level</div>
<div class="fileFormats"> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/reconfigure-minimum-benefit.html"><img src="/policy/images/icons/html.png" alt="Reconfigure minimum benefit - HTML." /></a> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/reconfigure-minimum-benefit.pdf" rel="nofollow"><img src="/policy/images/icons/pdf.png" alt="Reconfigure minimum benefit - PDF." /></a> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/reconfigure-minimum-benefit.xlsx" rel="nofollow"><img src="/policy/images/icons/excel.png" alt="Reconfigure minimum benefit - Excel." /></a> </div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<!-- END COLUMN --><!-- COLUMN -->
<div class="column-3">
<div class="sidebar">
<h4 class="sidebar-gray">Abbreviations</h4>
<div class="ninetypercent">
<p><abbr>COLA</abbr>: <a href="/OACT/COLA/colasummary.html">cost-of-living adjustment</a></p>
<p><abbr class="spell">CPI</abbr>: <a href="https://www.bls.gov/cpi/">consumer price index</a></p>
<p><abbr class="spell">EEA</abbr>: <a href="/benefits/retirement/planner/agereduction.html">early eligibility age</a></p>
<p><abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr>: <a href="/benefits/retirement/planner/agereduction.html">full retirement age</a></p>
<p><abbr class="spell">PIA</abbr>: <a href="/OACT/COLA/piaformula.html">primary insurance amount</a></p>
</div>
<h4 class="sidebar-gray">Related Content</h4>
<ul>
<li><a href="/policy/docs/projections/methodology.html">Projection methodology</a></li>
<li><a href="/policy/docs/projections/user-guide.html">Table user guide</a></li>
<li><a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/summary.html">All options comparison</a></li>
<li><a href="/policy/research.html?keyword=distributional%20effects">Research on distributional effects of policy options</a></li>
</ul>
<h4 class="sidebar-gray">Contact</h4>
<p><a href="mailto:research@ssa.gov?subject=Policy%20Option%20Projections">research@ssa.gov</a></p>
<p><a class="mailIcon" href="/policy/notify/index.html">Subscribe to Updates</a></p>
<h4 class="sidebar-gray">Disclaimer</h4>
<p class="ninetypercent">Providing these estimates does not imply Social Security Administration (<abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr>) support for any proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<!-- END COLUMN, ROW, GRID, CONTENT -->
<ssa-footer class="print-hide"><noscript><footer class="footer" id="footer" role="contentinfo"><a href="/menu#footer">Footer menu</a></footer></noscript></ssa-footer><script src="https://www.ssa.gov/legacy/components/dist/ssa-footer.js"></script>
</div>
<!-- END PAGE CONTAINER -->
<!-- SSA INTERNET BODY SCRIPTS -->
<script src="/framework/js/ssa.internet.body.js"></script>
<script src="/policy/js/rspa.nav.js"></script>
<script src="/policy/js/rspa-shared.js"></script>
</body>
</html>