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<li><a href="/policy/docs/program-explainers/scheduled-payable.html">Scheduled <abbr title="versus">vs.</abbr> Payable Benefits</a></li>
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<li><a href="/policy/docs/program-explainers/special-minimum.html">Special Minimum Benefit</a></li>
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<li><a href="/policy/docs/program-explainers/poverty-decline.html">Why Will Poverty Decline for Beneficiaries?</a></li>
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<li><a href="/policy/docs/program-explainers/windfall-elimination-provision.html">Windfall Elimination Provision</a></li>
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</ul>
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</li>
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<li class="noClick menu1a" id="PM"><a href="#" tabindex="-1">Projections</a></li>
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<li class="hasFly menu2a" id="PFS"><a href="#" aria-haspopup="true" aria-expanded="false">Fact sheets</a>
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<ul>
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<li><a href="/policy/docs/projections/populations/divorced-spousal-2050.html">By beneficiary type</a></li>
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<li><a href="/policy/docs/projections/populations/beneficiaries-60-or-older.html">By demographic group</a></li>
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</ul>
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</li>
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<li class="hasFly menu2a" id="PPO"><a href="#" aria-haspopup="true" aria-expanded="false">Tables</a>
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<ul>
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<li><a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/index.html">Policy options/proposals</a></li>
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<li><a href="/policy/docs/projections/tables/beneficiaries.html">Profile of beneficiaries by race & ethnicity</a></li>
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<li><a href="/policy/docs/projections/tables/taxpayers.html">Profile of taxpayers by race & ethnicity</a></li>
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</ul>
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</li>
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</ul>
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</nav></div>
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<div class="column-6">
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<div id="docTitle">
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<h3>Policy Option Projections</h3>
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<div class="releaseDate">(released May 2024)</div>
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</div>
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<div class="container-blue">
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<p>For each retirement policy option/proposal below, a set of tables covers the proposal's <a href="/policy/docs/projections/methodology.html">projected effects</a> <span class="nobr">on—</span></p>
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<ul style="margin-top:.5em">
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<li>Social Security benefits in 2030, 2050, and 2070</li>
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<li>Social Security taxes paid in 2030, 2050, and 2070</li>
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<li>Household income in 2030, 2050, and 2070</li>
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<li>Poverty status in 2030, 2050, and 2070</li>
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<li>Benefit/tax ratios for selected birth cohorts</li>
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<li>Replacement rates for selected birth cohorts</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<h4 id="toc">Policy option/proposal<span class="formatsHead">Available formats</span></h4>
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<div id="fileList">
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<div class="fileLink"><b>Cost-of-Living Adjustment (<abbr>COLA</abbr>) Changes</b></div>
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<div class="fileLink">
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<div class="stub1">Increase the <abbr>COLA</abbr></div>
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<div class="stub2" style="font-size:88%;margin-left:1em">Base it on the <abbr class="spell">CPI</abbr> for the elderly <span class="nobr">(<abbr class="spell">CPI-E</abbr>)</span></div>
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<div class="fileFormats"> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/increase-COLA-with-CPI-E.html"><img src="/policy/images/icons/html.png" alt="Increase the COLA - HTML." /></a> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/increase-COLA-with-CPI-E.pdf" rel="nofollow"><img src="/policy/images/icons/pdf.png" alt="Increase the COLA - PDF." /></a> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/increase-COLA-with-CPI-E.xlsx" rel="nofollow"><img src="/policy/images/icons/excel.png" alt="Increase the COLA - Excel." /></a> </div>
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</div>
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<div class="fileLink">
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<div class="stub1">Reduce the <abbr>COLA</abbr></div>
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<div class="stub2" style="font-size:88%;margin-left:1em">Base it on the Chained <abbr class="spell">CPI</abbr></div>
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<div class="fileFormats"> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/reduce-COLA-with-chained-CPI.html"><img src="/policy/images/icons/html.png" alt="Reduce the COLA - HTML." /></a> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/reduce-COLA-with-chained-CPI.pdf" rel="nofollow"><img src="/policy/images/icons/pdf.png" alt="Reduce the COLA - PDF." /></a> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/reduce-COLA-with-chained-CPI.xlsx" rel="nofollow"><img src="/policy/images/icons/excel.png" alt="Reduce the COLA - Excel." /></a> </div>
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</div>
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<div class="fileLink margin-top"><b>Coverage Changes</b></div>
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<div class="fileLink">
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<div class="stub1">Cover all newly hired state and local workers</div>
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<div class="fileFormats"> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/cover-state-local-workers.html"><img src="/policy/images/icons/html.png" alt="Cover state and local workers - HTML." /></a> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/cover-state-local-workers.pdf" rel="nofollow"><img src="/policy/images/icons/pdf.png" alt="Cover state and local workers - PDF." /></a> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/cover-state-local-workers.xlsx" rel="nofollow"><img src="/policy/images/icons/excel.png" alt="Cover state and local workers - Excel." /></a> </div>
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</div>
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<div class="fileLink margin-top"><b>Family Benefit Changes</b></div>
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<div class="fileLink">
|
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<div class="stub1">Create an alternative survivor benefit</div>
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|
<div class="stub2" style="font-size:88%;margin-left:1em">Survivor receives the higher of the current-law benefit or an alternative benefit of 75% of the survivor's own benefit plus the deceased worker's <abbr class="spell">PIA</abbr></div>
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<div class="fileFormats"> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/create-alternative-survivor-benefit.html"><img src="/policy/images/icons/html.png" alt="Alternative survivor benefit - HTML." /></a> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/create-alternative-survivor-benefit.pdf" rel="nofollow"><img src="/policy/images/icons/pdf.png" alt="Alternative survivor benefit - PDF." /></a> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/create-alternative-survivor-benefit.xlsx" rel="nofollow"><img src="/policy/images/icons/excel.png" alt="Alternative survivor benefit - Excel." /></a> </div>
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|
</div>
|
|
<div class="fileLink">
|
|
<div class="stub1">Reduce marriage duration requirement for divorced spousal benefits</div>
|
|
<div class="stub2" style="font-size:88%;margin-left:1em">Allow divorced spouses who were married at least 5 years to receive reduced benefits</div>
|
|
<div class="fileFormats"> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/reduce-marriage-duration-for-divorced.html"><img src="/policy/images/icons/html.png" alt="Reduce marriage requirement - HTML." /></a> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/reduce-marriage-duration-for-divorced.pdf" rel="nofollow"><img src="/policy/images/icons/pdf.png" alt="Reduce marriage requirement - PDF." /></a> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/reduce-marriage-duration-for-divorced.xlsx" rel="nofollow"><img src="/policy/images/icons/excel.png" alt="Reduce marriage requirement - Excel." /></a> </div>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<div class="fileLink">
|
|
<div class="stub1">Reduce spousal benefits</div>
|
|
<div class="stub2" style="font-size:88%;margin-left:1em">From 50% to 33% of the worker's <abbr class="spell">PIA</abbr></div>
|
|
<div class="fileFormats"> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/reduce-spousal-benefits.html"><img src="/policy/images/icons/html.png" alt="Reduce spousal benefits - HTML." /></a> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/reduce-spousal-benefits.pdf" rel="nofollow"><img src="/policy/images/icons/pdf.png" alt="Reduce spousal benefits - PDF." /></a> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/reduce-spousal-benefits.xlsx" rel="nofollow"><img src="/policy/images/icons/excel.png" alt="Reduce spousal benefits - Excel." /></a> </div>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<div class="fileLink margin-top"><b>Retirement Age Changes</b></div>
|
|
<div class="fileLink">
|
|
<div class="stub1">Increase the <abbr class="spell">EEA</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr></div>
|
|
<div class="stub2" style="font-size:88%;margin-left:1em">One month every 2 years</div>
|
|
<div class="fileFormats"> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/increase-eea-and-fra.html"><img src="/policy/images/icons/html.png" alt="Increase the EEA and FRA - HTML." /></a> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/increase-eea-and-fra.pdf" rel="nofollow"><img src="/policy/images/icons/pdf.png" alt="Increase the EEA and FRA - PDF." /></a> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/increase-eea-and-fra.xlsx" rel="nofollow"><img src="/policy/images/icons/excel.png" alt="Increase the EEA and FRA - Excel." /></a> </div>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<div class="fileLink">
|
|
<div class="stub1">Increase the <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr></div>
|
|
<div class="stub2" style="font-size:88%;margin-left:1em">One month every 2 years</div>
|
|
<div class="fileFormats"> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/increase-fra.html"><img src="/policy/images/icons/html.png" alt="Increase the FRA - HTML." /></a> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/increase-fra.pdf" rel="nofollow"><img src="/policy/images/icons/pdf.png" alt="Increase the FRA - PDF." /></a> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/increase-fra.xlsx" rel="nofollow"><img src="/policy/images/icons/excel.png" alt="Increase the FRA - Excel." /></a> </div>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<div class="fileLink">
|
|
<div class="stub1">Increase the <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr> to 68</div>
|
|
<div class="stub2" style="font-size:88%;margin-left:1em">One month every 2 years</div>
|
|
<div class="fileFormats"> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/increase-fra-to-68.html"><img src="/policy/images/icons/html.png" alt="Increase the FRA to 68 - HTML." /></a> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/increase-fra-to-68.pdf" rel="nofollow"><img src="/policy/images/icons/pdf.png" alt="Increase the FRA to 68 - PDF." /></a> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/increase-fra-to-68.xlsx" rel="nofollow"><img src="/policy/images/icons/excel.png" alt="Increase the FRA to 68 - Excel." /></a> </div>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<div class="fileLink margin-top"><b>Social Security Payroll Tax Changes</b></div>
|
|
<div class="fileLink">
|
|
<div class="stub1">Count all earnings in payroll tax and benefit calculations</div>
|
|
<div class="fileFormats"> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/count-all-earnings.html"><img src="/policy/images/icons/html.png" alt="Count all earnings - HTML." /></a> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/count-all-earnings.pdf" rel="nofollow"><img src="/policy/images/icons/pdf.png" alt="Count all earnings - PDF." /></a> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/count-all-earnings.xlsx" rel="nofollow"><img src="/policy/images/icons/excel.png" alt="Count all earnings - Excel." /></a> </div>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<div class="fileLink">
|
|
<div class="stub1">Count 90% of earnings in payroll tax and benefit calculations; phase in <span class="nobr">2024–2033</span></div>
|
|
<div class="fileFormats"> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/count-90-percent-of-earnings.html"><img src="/policy/images/icons/html.png" alt="Count 90% of earnings - HTML." /></a> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/count-90-percent-of-earnings.pdf" rel="nofollow"><img src="/policy/images/icons/pdf.png" alt="Count 90% of earnings - PDF." /></a> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/count-90-percent-of-earnings.xlsx" rel="nofollow"><img src="/policy/images/icons/excel.png" alt="Count 90% of earnings - Excel." /></a> </div>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<div class="fileLink">
|
|
<div class="stub1">Increase payroll tax rate</div>
|
|
<div class="stub2" style="font-size:88%;margin-left:1em">From 12.4% to 16.2% in 2034 and then to 20.0% in 2064</div>
|
|
<div class="fileFormats"> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/increase-payroll-tax-rate.html"><img src="/policy/images/icons/html.png" alt="Increase payroll tax rate - HTML." /></a> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/increase-payroll-tax-rate.pdf" rel="nofollow"><img src="/policy/images/icons/pdf.png" alt="Increase payroll tax rate - PDF." /></a> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/increase-payroll-tax-rate.xlsx" rel="nofollow"><img src="/policy/images/icons/excel.png" alt="Increase payroll tax rate - Excel." /></a> </div>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<div class="fileLink margin-top"><b>Worker Benefit Changes</b></div>
|
|
<div class="fileLink">
|
|
<div class="stub1">Credit earnings to caregivers' records</div>
|
|
<div class="stub2" style="font-size:88%;margin-left:1em">Up to 5 years at one-half average wage when caring for children under age 6</div>
|
|
<div class="fileFormats"> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/credit-for-caregivers.html"><img src="/policy/images/icons/html.png" alt="Credit caregiver earnings - HTML." /></a> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/credit-for-caregivers.pdf" rel="nofollow"><img src="/policy/images/icons/pdf.png" alt="Credit caregiver earnings - PDF." /></a> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/credit-for-caregivers.xlsx" rel="nofollow"><img src="/policy/images/icons/excel.png" alt="Credit caregiver earnings - Excel." /></a> </div>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<div class="fileLink">
|
|
<div class="stub1">Eliminate the retirement earnings test</div>
|
|
<div class="stub2" style="font-size:88%;margin-left:1em">For all beneficiaries under <abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr></div>
|
|
<div class="fileFormats"> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/eliminate-ret.html"><img src="/policy/images/icons/html.png" alt="Eliminate retirement earnings test - HTML." /></a> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/eliminate-ret.pdf" rel="nofollow"><img src="/policy/images/icons/pdf.png" alt="Eliminate retirement earnings test - PDF." /></a> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/eliminate-ret.xlsx" rel="nofollow"><img src="/policy/images/icons/excel.png" alt="Eliminate retirement earnings test - Excel." /></a> </div>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<div class="fileLink">
|
|
<div class="stub1">Increase benefits for older beneficiaries</div>
|
|
<div class="stub2" style="font-size:88%;margin-left:1em"><abbr class="spell">PIA</abbr> increase is phased-in starting at 81 and by 85 is 5% of the average retired-worker <abbr class="spell">PIA</abbr> in the year the beneficiary turns 80</div>
|
|
<div class="fileFormats"> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/increase-older-benefits.html"><img src="/policy/images/icons/html.png" alt="Increase benefits for older beneficiaries - HTML." /></a> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/increase-older-benefits.pdf" rel="nofollow"><img src="/policy/images/icons/pdf.png" alt="Increase benefits for older beneficiaries - PDF." /></a> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/increase-older-benefits.xlsx" rel="nofollow"><img src="/policy/images/icons/excel.png" alt="Increase benefits for older beneficiaries - Excel." /></a> </div>
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|
</div>
|
|
<div class="fileLink">
|
|
<div class="stub1">Increase the computation period</div>
|
|
<div class="stub2" style="font-size:88%;margin-left:1em">From 35 years to 40 years; phase in <span class="spell">2024–2032</span> (does not apply to Disability Insurance)</div>
|
|
<div class="fileFormats"> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/increase-comp-years-to-40.html"><img src="/policy/images/icons/html.png" alt="Increase the computation period - HTML." /></a> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/increase-comp-years-to-40.pdf" rel="nofollow"><img src="/policy/images/icons/pdf.png" alt="Increase the computation period - PDF." /></a> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/increase-comp-years-to-40.xlsx" rel="nofollow"><img src="/policy/images/icons/excel.png" alt="Increase the computation period - Excel." /></a> </div>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<div class="fileLink">
|
|
<div class="stub1">Index <abbr class="spell">PIA</abbr> factors to longevity</div>
|
|
<div class="stub2" style="font-size:88%;margin-left:1em">Multiply factors by the ratio of life expectancy at 67 in 2028 to the life expectancy at age 67 in the 4th year prior to the year of initial benefit eligibility</div>
|
|
<div class="fileFormats"> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/index-pia-to-longevity.html"><img src="/policy/images/icons/html.png" alt="Index P I A factors to longevity - HTML." /></a> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/index-pia-to-longevity.pdf" rel="nofollow"><img src="/policy/images/icons/pdf.png" alt="Index P I A factors to longevity - PDF." /></a> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/index-pia-to-longevity.xlsx" rel="nofollow"><img src="/policy/images/icons/excel.png" alt="Index P I A factors to longevity - Excel." /></a> </div>
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</div>
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|
<div class="fileLink">
|
|
<div class="stub1">Price index the <abbr class="spell">PIA</abbr> formula for earners above the 30th percentile</div>
|
|
<div class="fileFormats"> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/price-index-pia-formula.html"><img src="/policy/images/icons/html.png" alt="Price index P I A formula - HTML." /></a> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/price-index-pia-formula.pdf" rel="nofollow"><img src="/policy/images/icons/pdf.png" alt="Price index P I A formula - PDF." /></a> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/price-index-pia-formula.xlsx" rel="nofollow"><img src="/policy/images/icons/excel.png" alt="Price index P I A formula - Excel." /></a> </div>
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|
</div>
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|
<div class="fileLink">
|
|
<div class="stub1">Reconfigure the minimum benefit</div>
|
|
<div class="stub2" style="font-size:88%;margin-left:1em">For workers with 10 to 30 years of coverage (<abbr class="spell">YOC</abbr> = 4 quarters earned that year) set <abbr class="spell">PIA</abbr> up to 125% of the monthly poverty level</div>
|
|
<div class="fileFormats"> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/reconfigure-minimum-benefit.html"><img src="/policy/images/icons/html.png" alt="Reconfigure minimum benefit - HTML." /></a> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/reconfigure-minimum-benefit.pdf" rel="nofollow"><img src="/policy/images/icons/pdf.png" alt="Reconfigure minimum benefit - PDF." /></a> <a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/reconfigure-minimum-benefit.xlsx" rel="nofollow"><img src="/policy/images/icons/excel.png" alt="Reconfigure minimum benefit - Excel." /></a> </div>
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</div>
|
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</div>
|
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</div>
|
|
<!-- END COLUMN --><!-- COLUMN -->
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<div class="column-3">
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<div class="sidebar">
|
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<h4 class="sidebar-gray">Abbreviations</h4>
|
|
<div class="ninetypercent">
|
|
<p><abbr>COLA</abbr>: <a href="/OACT/COLA/colasummary.html">cost-of-living adjustment</a></p>
|
|
<p><abbr class="spell">CPI</abbr>: <a href="https://www.bls.gov/cpi/">consumer price index</a></p>
|
|
<p><abbr class="spell">EEA</abbr>: <a href="/benefits/retirement/planner/agereduction.html">early eligibility age</a></p>
|
|
<p><abbr class="spell">FRA</abbr>: <a href="/benefits/retirement/planner/agereduction.html">full retirement age</a></p>
|
|
<p><abbr class="spell">PIA</abbr>: <a href="/OACT/COLA/piaformula.html">primary insurance amount</a></p>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<h4 class="sidebar-gray">Related Content</h4>
|
|
<ul>
|
|
<li><a href="/policy/docs/projections/methodology.html">Projection methodology</a></li>
|
|
<li><a href="/policy/docs/projections/user-guide.html">Table user guide</a></li>
|
|
<li><a href="/policy/docs/projections/policy-options/summary.html">All options comparison</a></li>
|
|
<li><a href="/policy/research.html?keyword=distributional%20effects">Research on distributional effects of policy options</a></li>
|
|
</ul>
|
|
<h4 class="sidebar-gray">Contact</h4>
|
|
<p><a href="mailto:research@ssa.gov?subject=Policy%20Option%20Projections">research@ssa.gov</a></p>
|
|
<p><a class="mailIcon" href="/policy/notify/index.html">Subscribe to Updates</a></p>
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<h4 class="sidebar-gray">Disclaimer</h4>
|
|
<p class="ninetypercent">Providing these estimates does not imply Social Security Administration (<abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr>) support for any proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.</p>
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