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<h1 itemprop="headline">The <abbr>TANF</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> Connection</h1>
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<div id="hByline">by <span itemprop="author">Steve Wamhoff and Michael Wiseman</span><br>Social Security Bulletin, <abbr title="Volume">Vol.</abbr> 66, <abbr title="Number">No.</abbr> 4, 2005/2006 (released April 2007)</div>
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<p id="synopsis" itemprop="description">Connections between receipt of Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (<abbr>TANF</abbr>) and Supplemental Security Income (<abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>) are widely discussed in both policy and poverty research literatures, but reliable data on the extent of this interaction are scarce. This article contributes to analysis of the interaction between <abbr>TANF</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> by evaluating the financial consequences of <abbr>TANF</abbr>-to-<abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> transfer and developing new estimates of both the prevalence of receipt of <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> benefits among families receiving cash assistance from <abbr>TANF</abbr> and the proportion of new <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> awards that go to adults and children residing in families receiving <abbr>TANF</abbr>-related benefits. The connections are substantial and justify collaboration between the Social Security Administration and <abbr>TANF</abbr> authorities both nationally and locally in improving the programs' interface.</p>
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<p>Steve Wamhoff is a policy analyst with the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy. When the research for this article was conducted, he was a research analyst in the Office of Disability and Income Assistance Policy (<abbr>ODIAP</abbr>), Office of Policy, Social Security Administration. Michael Wiseman is a visiting scholar in <abbr>ODIAP</abbr> and Research Professor of Public Policy, Public Administration, and Economics at George Washington University.</p>
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<p><i>Acknowledgments</i>: We have benefited from research and computational assistance provided by Neal Toomey as well as comments and corrections from Richard Balkus, Ed DeMarco, Mary Barbour, Susan Grad, Scott Muller, Jae Song, Paul Van de Water, Bernie Wixon, and other staff members of the Social Security Administration's Office of Policy.</p>
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<p>Contents of this publication are <a href="/policy/accessibility.html">not copyrighted</a>; any items may be reprinted, but citation of the <i>Social Security Bulletin</i> as the source is requested. The findings and conclusions presented in the <i>Bulletin</i> are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the Social Security Administration.</p>
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<h2>Summary</h2>
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<p>Interactions and overlap of social assistance programs across clients interest policymakers because such interactions affect both the clients' well-being and the programs' efficiency. This article investigates the connections between Supplemental Security Income (<abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>) and Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (<abbr>TANF</abbr>) and <abbr>TANF</abbr>'s predecessor, the Aid to Families with Dependent Children (<abbr class="spell">AFDC</abbr>) program. Connections between receipt of <abbr>TANF</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> are widely discussed in both disability policy and poverty research literatures because many families receiving <abbr>TANF</abbr> report disabilities.</p>
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<p>For both states and the individuals involved, it is generally financially advantageous for adults and children with disabilities to transfer from <abbr>TANF</abbr> to <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>. States gain because the federal government pays for the <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> benefit, and states can then use the <abbr>TANF</abbr> savings for other purposes. The families gain because the <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> benefits they acquire are greater than the <abbr>TANF</abbr> benefits they lose. The payoff to states from transferring welfare recipients to SSI was substantially increased when Congress replaced <abbr class="spell">AFDC</abbr> with <abbr>TANF</abbr> in 1996. States retained less than half of any savings achieved through such transfers under <abbr class="spell">AFDC</abbr>, but they retain all of the savings under <abbr>TANF</abbr>. Also, the work participation requirements under <abbr>TANF</abbr> have obligated states to address the work support needs of adults with disabilities who remain in <abbr>TANF</abbr>, and states can avoid these costs if adults have disabilities that satisfy <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> eligibility requirements. The incentive for <abbr>TANF</abbr> recipients to apply for <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> has increased over time as inflation has caused real <abbr>TANF</abbr> benefits to fall relative to payments received by <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients.</p>
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<p>Trends in the financial incentives for transfer to <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> have not been studied in detail, and reliable general data on the extent of the interaction between <abbr>TANF</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> are scarce. In addition, some estimates of the prevalence of <abbr>TANF</abbr> receipt among <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> awardees are flawed because they fail to include adults receiving benefits in <abbr>TANF</abbr>-related Separate State Programs (<abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr>s). <abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr>s are assistance programs that are administered by <abbr>TANF</abbr> agencies but are paid for wholly from state funds. When the programs are conducted in a manner consistent with federal regulations, the money states spend on SSPs counts toward federal maintenance-of-effort (<abbr class="spell">MOE</abbr>) requirements, under which states must sustain a certain level of contribution to the costs of <abbr>TANF</abbr> and approved related activities. <abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr>s are used for a variety of purposes, including support of families who are in the process of applying for <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>. Until very recently, families receiving cash benefits through <abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr>s were not subject to <abbr>TANF</abbr>'s work participation requirements.</p>
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<p>This article contributes to analysis of the interaction between <abbr>TANF</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> by evaluating the financial consequences of <abbr>TANF</abbr>-to-<abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> transfer and developing new estimates of both the prevalence of receipt of <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> benefits among families receiving cash assistance from <abbr>TANF</abbr> and the proportion of new <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> awards that go to adults and children residing in families receiving <abbr>TANF</abbr> or <abbr>TANF</abbr>-related benefits in <abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr>s.</p>
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<p>Using data from the Urban Institute's Welfare Rules Database, we find that by 2003 an <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> award for a child in a three-person family dependent on <abbr>TANF</abbr> increased family income by 103.5 percent on average across states; an award to the adult in such a family increased income by 115.4 percent. The gain from both child and adult transfers increased by about 6 percent between 1996 (the eve of the welfare reform that produced <abbr>TANF</abbr>) and 2003.</p>
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<p>Using data from the Department of Health and Human Services' <abbr>TANF</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr> Recipient Family Characteristics Survey, we estimate that 16 percent of families receiving <abbr>TANF</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr> support in federal fiscal year 2003 included an adult or child <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipient. This proportion has increased slightly since fiscal year 2000.</p>
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<p>The Social Security Administration's current procedures for tabulating characteristics of new <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> awardees do not recognize <abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr> receipt as <abbr>TANF</abbr>. We use differences in reported <abbr>TANF</abbr>-to-<abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> flows between states with and without Separate State Programs to estimate the understatement of the prevalence of <abbr>TANF</abbr>-related <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> awards in states with <abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr>s. The results indicate that the absolute number of awards to <abbr class="spell">AFDC</abbr> (and subsequently) <abbr>TANF</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr> recipients has declined by 42 percent for children and 25 percent for adults since the early 1990s. This result is a product of the decline in welfare caseloads. However, the monthly incidence of such awards has gone up—from less than 1 per 1,000 child recipients in calendar years 1991–1993 to 1.3 per 1,000 in 2001–2003 and, for adult recipients, from 1.6 per 1,000 in 1991–1993 to 4 per 1,000 in 2001–2003.</p>
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<p>From these results we conclude that a significant proportion of each year's <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> awards to disabled nonelderly people go to <abbr>TANF</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr> recipients, and many families that receive <abbr>TANF</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr> support include adults, children, or both who receive <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>. Given the Social Security Administration's efforts to improve eligibility assessment for applicants, to ensure timely access to <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> benefits for those who qualify, and to improve prospects for eventual employment of the disabled, there is definitely a basis for working with <abbr>TANF</abbr> authorities both nationally and locally on service coordination and on smoothing the process of <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> eligibility assessment.</p>
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<p>The Deficit Reduction Act of 2005 reauthorized <abbr>TANF</abbr> through fiscal year 2010, but with some rules changes that are important in light of the analysis presented in this article. The new law substantially increases effective federal requirements for work participation by adult <abbr>TANF</abbr> recipients and mandates that adults in Separate State Programs be included in participation requirements beginning in fiscal year 2007. Thus <abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr>s will no longer provide a means for exempting from work requirements families that are in the process of applying for <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>, and the increased emphasis on work participation could result in more <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> applications from adult <abbr>TANF</abbr> recipients.</p>
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<h2>Introduction</h2>
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<p>Like the Aid to Families with Dependent Children (<abbr class="spell">AFDC</abbr>) program it replaced in 1996, the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (<abbr>TANF</abbr>) program supports many poor families in which one or more members has a disability (Nadel, Wamhoff, and Wiseman 2003/2004). In many cases these disabilities are sufficiently severe to make the adult or child a candidate for Supplemental Security Income (<abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>). Eligibility for <abbr>TANF</abbr> benefits is determined by income, not disability, and can be established relatively quickly, so it is common for poor families with children and disability problems to apply for <abbr>TANF</abbr> first and then seek to qualify for <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>. Many analysts claim that the intensity with which families pursue <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> is a function of both the potential financial gain to the family and the fiscal consequences of such moves for state governments (Kubik 2003; Schmidt and Sevak 2004; Ziliak 2004).</p>
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<p>Differences between <abbr>TANF</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> benefits are substantial, and the transition from <abbr class="spell">AFDC</abbr> to <abbr>TANF</abbr> may have increased incentives for recipients who were potentially eligible for <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> to apply for benefits and for states to encourage such efforts. Between December 1996 and December 2003, the nonelderly <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> caseload increased by 8.6 percent (<abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> 2004b, 21). Although it is reasonable to ask how much of this growth can be attributed to welfare reform, we do not try to answer this question in full here. Rather, our intention is to throw new light on just how substantial the connection is between <abbr>TANF</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>. We argue that the growing enrollment of <abbr>TANF</abbr> families in what are termed Separate State Programs has led to an undercount of the number of <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> awards that go to <abbr>TANF</abbr> recipients and, in consequence, an underappreciation of the magnitude of the interaction between the two programs. We present estimates that correct for this problem.</p>
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<p>We begin with an overview of the two programs, the basis for overlap, and the incentives for <abbr>TANF</abbr> recipients to seek <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> awards. We then look at the interaction from two perspectives, considering first the prevalence of <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> receipt among families currently receiving <abbr>TANF</abbr> and then the extent to which new <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> awardees come from <abbr>TANF</abbr> cases. <abbr>TANF</abbr> was reauthorized through 2010 by the Deficit Reduction Act of 2005, which was signed into law by President Bush in February 2006. We suggest that certain provisions of the new legislation are likely to increase states' interest in promoting the transfer of <abbr>TANF</abbr> recipients to <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>. We conclude with a review of the implications of our results for possible collaboration between the Social Security Administration (responsible for <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>) and the Department of Health and Human Services (responsible for <abbr>TANF</abbr>).</p>
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<h2>Background</h2>
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<p>Supplemental Security Income is the nation's safety net for adults and children with major disabilities as well as for poor elderly persons. <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> provides a monthly cash payment to persons or their caretakers based on uniform national eligibility standards for disability and need. All persons who meet those standards are enrolled. The program is funded from general federal revenues and is administered by the Social Security Administration. Some states supplement the <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> benefit, but supplements account for less than 14 percent of benefits nationwide (<abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> 2004a, 3).</p>
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<p>Temporary Assistance for Needy Families is a federal/state program that provides assistance to needy families with children. Details, including standards of need and benefit payments, are generally left up to the states, subject to certain federal requirements and restrictions. <abbr>TANF</abbr> law mandates some conditions for eligibility, sets requirements for participation in work and work-related activities for recipients, places a time limit on use of federal funds for benefits to some families, specifies certain "maintenance-of-effort" levels of expenditures from states' own funds, and requires that states report certain data on recipients and expenditures. Many requirements are either difficult for the federal government to enforce or can be avoided by states using exemptions and exceptions allowed by the law.</p>
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<h3>The Changing Incentives for <abbr>TANF</abbr>-to-<abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> Transfers</h3>
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<p>The Supplemental Security Income program was established in 1972, and first benefits were paid in 1974. From the beginning the program created incentives for states to promote transfer of persons receiving <abbr class="spell">AFDC</abbr> to <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> because states paid as much as half of <abbr class="spell">AFDC</abbr> benefits but the federal government pays all of the basic <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> benefit. (About half of the states supplement the federal payment, but most such supplements are small.) When a member of a family receiving <abbr class="spell">AFDC</abbr> moved to <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>, total family income generally increased because the consequent reduction in their <abbr class="spell">AFDC</abbr> payments was more than offset by the gain from <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>.</p>
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<p>The <abbr class="spell">TANF</abbr> program's progenitor, the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act of 1996 (<abbr class="spell">PRWORA</abbr>), enhanced states' incentives for promoting <abbr>TANF</abbr>-to-<abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> transfers by changing the terms of the federal/state assistance partnership. <abbr class="spell">AFDC</abbr> was financed with a federal matching grant, and each dollar of benefits paid from state funds was matched with at least a dollar of federal funds, up to as much as $4 for states with low per capita income. <abbr class="spell">PRWORA</abbr> substituted a block grant for the matching grant. Under <abbr class="spell">AFDC</abbr>, transfer of an <abbr class="spell">AFDC</abbr> recipient to <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> states saved only their share of benefit expenditures. In contrast, under the <abbr>TANF</abbr> block grant, all of the savings from such transfers accrues to the states. States have responded to the altered terms of federal participation and to recession-related fiscal problems by continuing a long-term decline in real (inflation-adjusted) benefits that predates <abbr class="spell">PRWORA</abbr>. Declining real benefits combined with increasing obligations for recipients to participate in work and work-related activities have made the transfer from <abbr>TANF</abbr> to <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> more attractive for recipients with disabilities.</p>
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<p>The incentives created by the change in welfare financing are not trivial. The shift to the block grant increased the states' fiscal gain from moving a recipient from <abbr>TANF</abbr> to <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> by a factor of at least two (for states with high per capita income) to as much as four (for low-income states). In addition to the incentive effect of the block grant, the 1996 reforms increased requirements for rates of participation by recipients in work or work-related activities. States anticipated that achieving the new targets would be both costly and administratively difficult, because recipients who had not previously engaged in work-related activities typically faced more barriers to work—including disabilities—than did those who were already engaged. This, too, encouraged removing persons with disabilities from the <abbr>TANF</abbr> rolls to <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>. The <abbr>TANF</abbr> High Performance Bonus added to the <abbr>TANF</abbr>-to-<abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> incentive. The bonus (now defunct) was awarded to states on the basis of job placement, employment retention, and earnings gains for adult <abbr>TANF</abbr> recipients, without adjusting for disability (Wiseman 2004). If adult <abbr>TANF</abbr> recipients with disabilities are less likely to become employed, to keep jobs once they have them, or to experience substantial earnings gains once employed, moving them to <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> improved a state's chance for a performance bonus. The shift to the block grant also raised the marginal cost to states of increasing <abbr>TANF</abbr> benefits and the fiscal gain from reducing them. On average (weighted by the <abbr>TANF</abbr> caseload), state <abbr>TANF</abbr> benefits fell by 7 percent in real terms between 1996 and 2003. Only 19 states increased even nominal <abbr>TANF</abbr> benefits over this interval; 5 actually reduced them.<sup><a href="#mn1" id="mt1">1</a></sup></p>
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<p>Federal <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> benefits are indexed. Therefore, as <abbr>TANF</abbr> benefits have declined in value, the gain to <abbr>TANF</abbr> families from transferring an adult or child to <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> has grown. Table 1 illustrates the change for a one-adult, two-child family in which either the adult—generally the mother—or a child moves to <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>. In the illustration, the family has no income other than <abbr>TANF</abbr> and, potentially, <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>; we have not included food stamps, which if treated as cash would narrow some of these differentials.<sup><a href="#mn2" id="mt2">2</a></sup> The table shows weighted national averages of <abbr class="spell">AFDC</abbr> (1996) and <abbr>TANF</abbr> (2003) benefits, both including and excluding California. California is important because of the size of the state's caseload (accounting for 22 percent of the national <abbr>TANF</abbr> caseload in 2003) and because after 1996 the state adopted a dual payment structure in which cases exempt from work requirements—including cases with adults with disabilities or adults caring for children with disabilities—received a substantial benefit increase over nonexempt cases. (At the same time, California introduced regional cost-of-living differentials; data in the table are for Los Angeles.) If the California family illustrated in Table 1 were not exempt, the benefit would have been $704, not $786, in 2003. Therefore we report national averages with and without California, as well as comparable benefits for New York (represented by New York City) and Texas.</p>
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<div class="table" id="table1">
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<table>
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<caption><span class="tableNumber">Table 1. </span>The changing gain from transferring <abbr class="spell">AFDC</abbr>/<abbr>TANF</abbr> recipients to <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>, 1996 and 2003</caption>
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<colgroup span="1" style="width:7em"></colgroup>
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<colgroup span="2" style="width:5em"></colgroup>
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<colgroup span="2" style="width:5em"></colgroup>
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<colgroup span="2" style="width:5em"></colgroup>
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<colgroup span="4" style="width:5em"></colgroup>
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<colgroup span="4" style="width:5em"></colgroup>
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<thead>
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<tr>
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<th class="stubHeading" rowspan="2" scope="colgroup"> </th>
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<th class="spanner" colspan="2" scope="colgroup"><abbr class="spell">AFDC</abbr>/<abbr>TANF</abbr><br>benefit, no SSI</th>
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<th class="spanner" colspan="2" scope="colgroup"><abbr class="spell">AFDC</abbr>/<abbr>TANF</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr><br>benefits with one<br>child on SSI</th>
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<th class="spanner" colspan="2" scope="colgroup"><abbr class="spell">AFDC</abbr>/<abbr>TANF</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr><br>benefits with one<br>adult on SSI</th>
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<th class="spanner" colspan="4" scope="colgroup">Dollar and percentage gain from<br>transferring one child to <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr></th>
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<th class="spanner" colspan="4" scope="colgroup">Dollar and percentage gain from<br>transferring one adult to <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr></th>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<th scope="col">1996</th>
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<th scope="col">2003</th>
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<th scope="col">1996</th>
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<th scope="col">2003</th>
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<th scope="col">1996</th>
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<th scope="col">2003</th>
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<th scope="col">Dollars</th>
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<th scope="col">Percent</th>
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<th scope="col">Dollars</th>
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<th scope="col">Percent</th>
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<th scope="col">Dollars</th>
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<th scope="col">Percent</th>
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<th scope="col">Dollars</th>
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<th scope="col">Percent</th>
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</tr>
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</thead>
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<tbody>
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<tr>
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<th class="stub0" scope="row">National <sup>a</sup></th>
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<td>494</td>
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<td>478</td>
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<td>976</td>
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<td>973</td>
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<td>1,031</td>
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|
<td>1,030</td>
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|
<td>481</td>
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|
<td>97.4</td>
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<td>495</td>
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<td>103.5</td>
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<td>537</td>
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<td>108.7</td>
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<td>552</td>
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<td>115.4</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<th class="stub0" scope="row">National without California <sup>b</sup></th>
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<td>443</td>
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<td>389</td>
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<td>923</td>
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<td>882</td>
|
|
<td>965</td>
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|
<td>925</td>
|
|
<td>480</td>
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|
<td>108.3</td>
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|
<td>493</td>
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|
<td>126.7</td>
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|
<td>522</td>
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|
<td>117.9</td>
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|
<td>536</td>
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<td>137.7</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<th class="stub0" scope="row">California <sup>b</sup></th>
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<td>699</td>
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<td>786</td>
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|
<td>1,187</td>
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|
<td>1,286</td>
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|
<td>1,296</td>
|
|
<td>1,393</td>
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|
<td>488</td>
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|
<td>69.9</td>
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|
<td>500</td>
|
|
<td>63.6</td>
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|
<td>597</td>
|
|
<td>85.5</td>
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|
<td>607</td>
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|
<td>77.2</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">New York <sup>c</sup></th>
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|
<td>677</td>
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|
<td>577</td>
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<td>1,127</td>
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|
<td>1,043</td>
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|
<td>1,201</td>
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|
<td>1,107</td>
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|
<td>450</td>
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<td>66.6</td>
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|
<td>466</td>
|
|
<td>80.8</td>
|
|
<td>524</td>
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<td>77.5</td>
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|
<td>530</td>
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<td>91.9</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">Texas</th>
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<td>220</td>
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<td>213</td>
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<td>742</td>
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<td>736</td>
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|
<td>742</td>
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|
<td>736</td>
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|
<td>522</td>
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|
<td>236.7</td>
|
|
<td>523</td>
|
|
<td>245.5</td>
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|
<td>522</td>
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|
<td>236.7</td>
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<td>523</td>
|
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<td>245.5</td>
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</tr>
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</tbody>
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<tfoot>
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<tr>
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<td class="firstNote" colspan="15">SOURCE: Authors' calculations from <abbr>TANF</abbr> data provided by the Urban Institute and information on state supplementation from the Social Security Administration.</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td class="note" colspan="15">NOTES: Benefits are as of July 1; dollar amounts are in 2003 dollars.
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<div class="newNote">Data for 1996 are for <abbr>AFDC</abbr>-to-<abbr>SSI</abbr> transfers; data for 2003 are for <abbr>TANF</abbr>-to-<abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> transfers.</div>
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</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td class="note" colspan="15">a. Average across states weighted by current <abbr>TANF</abbr> caseload.</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td class="note" colspan="15">b. California data are for Los Angeles. The increase in real benefits between 1996 and 2003 in California is attributable to that state's special treatment of households exempt from <abbr>TANF</abbr> work requirements. See text.</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td class="lastNote" colspan="15">c. New York data are for New York City.</td>
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</tr>
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</tfoot>
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</table>
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</div>
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<p>Comparison of the 1996 and 2003 benefit amounts reported in Table 1 for families receiving only <abbr class="spell">AFDC</abbr>/<abbr>TANF</abbr> benefits indicates that average real <abbr>TANF</abbr> benefits declined for the nation as a whole over this period (from $494 to $478, in 2003 dollars) but increased in California (from $699 to $786). Table 1 also shows the consequence for the family's total income—<abbr class="spell">AFDC</abbr>/<abbr>TANF</abbr> assistance plus <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>—of moving either one child or the adult to <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>. The outcomes for the adult and child cases are not identical because many states' <abbr class="spell">AFDC</abbr>/<abbr>TANF</abbr> benefit structures provide more money for adults than for children. The illustration makes four important points.</p>
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<ul>
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<li>In both 1996 and 2003, moving one family member to <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> substantially increased total family income. In New York City in 2003, for example, transferring one adult to <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> increased family income by almost 92 percent. Elsewhere, the gain was greater. On average nationwide, moving a child or the adult from <abbr>TANF</abbr> to <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> would more than double the cash income of a family wholly dependent on <abbr>TANF</abbr>.</li>
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<li>Moving the adult generally added more to family income than did moving a child.</li>
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<li>The change was worth more in 2003 than in 1996 because the erosion of <abbr>TANF</abbr> benefits has enhanced the relative attractiveness of <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>.</li>
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<li>The percentage gain in family income was particularly large in a low-benefit state like Texas.</li>
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</ul>
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<p>Beyond the downward trend in benefits, the <abbr>TANF</abbr> programs in many states continue to require work or involvement in work-related activities, and all but seven states have lifetime time limits on financial support. Although many persons with disabilities are exempted from activity requirements, time limits, or both, the award of such exemptions is in many states highly discretionary and therefore a source of uncertainty. From the perspective of persons with disabilities, <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> offers more money and far greater security.</p>
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<h3>The Outlook</h3>
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<p>There is no near-term prospect for a change in the trend of these incentives. The Administration's budget proposal for federal fiscal year 2007 provided level funding for the <abbr>TANF</abbr> block grant. As caseloads have declined, states have reallocated <abbr>TANF</abbr> grant funds to uses other than cash benefits. In fiscal year 2003, basic assistance (that is, grants to families receiving <abbr>TANF</abbr>) accounted for just 35.2 percent of state and federal expenditures from <abbr>TANF</abbr> funds (federal and state contributions mandated by maintenance-of-effort requirements), down from more than 90 percent before welfare reform in 1996.<sup><a href="#mn3" id="mt3">3</a></sup> The benefits from these nonassistance expenditures are widely distributed and enjoy a growing constituency. At the same time, real funding for other programs with objectives and clientele that overlap with those of <abbr>TANF</abbr> and for which <abbr>TANF</abbr> funds can be used has also declined, and states are showing growing interest in using <abbr>TANF</abbr> funds for expanding prekindergarten education and other child welfare programs. These competing uses increase pressure to reduce <abbr>TANF</abbr> cash benefits, or at least not to change them in nominal terms. As a result, the gap between <abbr>TANF</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> benefits is likely to grow.</p>
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<p>The consequences of welfare reform and <abbr>TANF</abbr> operations for persons with disabilities and the demand for <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> is a long-standing matter of concern to the Social Security Administration as well as to policy analysts outside the agency (see, for example, Garrett and Gleid 2000; Stapleton and others 2001/2002; Kubik 2003; Lee and others 2004; Schmidt and Sevak 2004; Nadel, Wamhoff, and Wiseman 2003/2004; Ziliak 2004). However, it is difficult to assess the extent to which <abbr>TANF</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> interact in practice because of data problems (to be discussed below) on both sides. In a recent report (<abbr class="spell">GAO</abbr> 2004), the Government Accountability Office poses, but does not for the most part answer, questions about the number of adults and children who move from the <abbr>TANF</abbr> program to <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> and possibilities for intercepting adults in the application process who are capable of employment. <abbr class="spell">GAO</abbr> recommends that the Social Security Administration work with <abbr>TANF</abbr> offices to develop screening tools, assessments, or other data that would identify <abbr>TANF</abbr> recipients with impairments who, though potentially eligible for <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>, may also be capable of working. In its response, the Social Security Administration concurred with the recommendation (<abbr class="spell">GAO</abbr> 2004, 30). However, a key question remains: How significant is the <abbr>TANF</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> connection? In the next two sections, we show the connection to be large.</p>
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<h2><abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> Receipt within <abbr>TANF</abbr> Families</h2>
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<p>Available data on certain features of the <abbr class="spell">AFDC</abbr>/<abbr>TANF</abbr> caseload lead us to concentrate much of our analysis on trends over the fiscal year 2000–2003 period (note that all caseload data are for fiscal years). Given the dramatic developments in the caseload, it is important to place this focal period in a longer-term context. Chart 1 shows the national <abbr class="spell">AFDC</abbr>/<abbr>TANF</abbr> caseload from fiscal year 1990 through fiscal year 2003 and makes obvious a point that is well known—the number of families receiving <abbr class="spell">AFDC</abbr>/<abbr>TANF</abbr> benefits fell precipitously after 1994. This decline slowed with the onset of recession in 2000/2001. Therefore, when we look at <abbr>TANF</abbr> after 1999, we are considering <abbr>TANF</abbr> "after the fall," with a much diminished, residual caseload of about 2 million families. Even if the rate of transfer of adults and children from <abbr>TANF</abbr> families to <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> increased between 1997 (the first year of <abbr>TANF</abbr>'s implementation) and 2003, the number of families involved could well diminish given that the base—the number of families receiving assistance in a typical month—had shrunk by almost half by 2003.</p>
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<div class="chartCenter">
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<div class="chart700" id="chart1">
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<div class="title">Chart 1.<br>Average monthly national <abbr class="spell">AFDC</abbr>/<abbr>TANF</abbr> caseload, fiscal years 1990–2003</div>
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<div class="scrollChart"><img src="v66n4p21_chart01.gif" width="523" height="250" alt="Line chart with tabular version below." /></div>
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<div class="table altTable"><a class="altToggle" href="">Show as table</a>
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<table>
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<caption><span class="tableNumber">Table equivalent for Chart 1. </span>Average monthly national <abbr class="spell">AFDC</abbr>/<abbr>TANF</abbr> caseload, fiscal years <span class="nobr">1990–2003</span></caption>
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<colgroup span="1" style="width:10em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:10em"></colgroup>
|
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<thead>
|
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<tr>
|
|
<th class="stubHeading" scope="col">Year</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Average, in millions</th>
|
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</tr>
|
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</thead>
|
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<tbody>
|
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<tr>
|
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<th class="panel" colspan="2" scope="rowgroup">Aid to families with dependent children</th>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<th class="stub0" scope="row">1990</th>
|
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<td>3.913</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<th class="stub0" scope="row">1991</th>
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<td>4.311</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<th class="stub0" scope="row">1992</th>
|
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<td>4.705</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
|
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<th class="stub0" scope="row">1993</th>
|
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<td>4.918</td>
|
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</tr>
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<tr>
|
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<th class="stub0" scope="row">1994</th>
|
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<td>4.985</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
|
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<th class="stub0" scope="row">1995</th>
|
|
<td>4.821</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">1996</th>
|
|
<td>4.489</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="panel" colspan="2" scope="rowgroup">Temporary Assistance for Needy Families</th>
|
|
</tr>
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<tr>
|
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<th class="stub0" scope="row">1997</th>
|
|
<td>3.885</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">1998</th>
|
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<td>3.155</td>
|
|
</tr>
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<tr>
|
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<th class="stub0" scope="row">1999</th>
|
|
<td>2.634</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2000 <sup>a</sup></th>
|
|
<td>2.229</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
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<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2001 <sup>a</sup></th>
|
|
<td>2.088</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2002 <sup>a</sup></th>
|
|
<td>2.038</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2003 <sup>a</sup></th>
|
|
<td>2.009</td>
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</tr>
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</tbody>
|
|
<tfoot>
|
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<tr>
|
|
<td class="onlyNote" colspan="2">a. Data include families in Separate State Programs.</td>
|
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</tr>
|
|
</tfoot>
|
|
</table>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<div class="firstNote">SOURCE: Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Office of Family Assistance</div>
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|
<div class="lastNote">NOTE: Data in shaded area (2000–2003) include families in Separate State Programs.</div>
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|
</div>
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</div>
|
|
<h3>Separate State Programs</h3>
|
|
<p>The <abbr>TANF</abbr> caseload plotted in Chart 1 includes cases in Separate State Programs (<abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr>s). This inclusion turns out to be relevant to assessing the <abbr>TANF</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> overlap. <abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr>s are assistance programs that are administered by <abbr>TANF</abbr> agencies but are paid for wholly from state funds. When such programs are conducted in a manner consistent with federal regulations, money that states spend on <abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr>s counts toward the federal maintenance-of-effort requirements under which states must sustain a certain level of contribution to costs of <abbr>TANF</abbr> and approved related activities.</p>
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|
<p>States use <abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr>s for a variety of purposes, including the provision of supplemental transportation, housing, and child care services for families receiving <abbr>TANF</abbr> cash benefits. However, <abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr>s are also attractive to states as alternative vehicles for income support because families receiving cash benefits through <abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr>s are not subject to <abbr>TANF</abbr>'s work participation requirements. Complying with those requirements is costly, and the rules are difficult to apply to some families. Requirements for adults in two-parent families are particularly stringent; as a result, it is common for two-parent families to be assisted in <abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr>s. Significantly, this is also true for families with adults who are incapacitated. Some states specifically assign families with adults who are considered candidates for <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> to <abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr>s during the often lengthy <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> application process. Maryland, for example, moves <abbr>TANF</abbr> families with an <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> candidate to an <abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr> called the Disability Entitlement and Advocacy Program, which pays a contractor specifically to pursue the <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> award on the disabled recipient's behalf (Kaplan 2000, 4). If the application fails, the family is returned to <abbr>TANF</abbr>. Although the proportion of total <abbr>TANF</abbr>-related cash assistance cases attributable to <abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr>s remains quite small (just 6.8 percent in fiscal year 2003), the fact that virtually all of these cases include adults means that they account for a larger share of adult recipients—almost 15 percent in fiscal year 2003, up from 9.1 percent in fiscal year 2000. In contrast to what is typical of <abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr> families, the regular <abbr>TANF</abbr> caseload includes a significant and growing proportion (over one-third, in 2002) of child-only cases, in which for various reasons adults are not counted as beneficiaries and are therefore not subject to <abbr>TANF</abbr> participation requirements (Gibbs and others 2004).</p>
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|
<p>The distinction between recipients of cash benefits in <abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr>s and those formally "in <abbr>TANF</abbr>" is not a matter of substance, because states can vary work requirements among <abbr>TANF</abbr> families and thus achieve the same outcome as is accomplished with <abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr>s. The distinction is instead principally a matter of strategy with respect to federal activity requirements. Recipients are unaware of the difference, and official caseload statistics (such as those underlying Chart 1) combine the counts.<sup><a href="#mn4" id="mt4">4</a></sup> Benefit amounts received by <abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr> participants do not differ from those received by similarly constituted families formally in <abbr>TANF</abbr>. States must transmit the same information about <abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr> recipients to the Office of Family Assistance (the agency responsible for <abbr>TANF</abbr> within the Department of Health and Human Services' Administration for Children and Families) that they do for families counted as being in <abbr>TANF</abbr>. As noted above, <abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr> participants differ from <abbr>TANF</abbr> participants principally in that states do not subject <abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr> participants to the same work requirements imposed on <abbr>TANF</abbr> participants. Our review of states' <abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr> rules suggest that these differences in work requirements typically are linked to special situations such as families with two parents at home, adults needed as caretakers, and so on. Since <abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr> recipient families are otherwise like <abbr>TANF</abbr> recipient families and generally see themselves as "in <abbr>TANF</abbr>," it is important to combine them in assessing the prevalence of <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> receipt among families receiving welfare today. Thus, for the remainder of this analysis, we refer to such families as <abbr>TANF</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr> recipients.</p>
|
|
<h3>The Prevalence of Supplemental Security Income</h3>
|
|
<p>To assess the prevalence of <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> receipt among <abbr>TANF</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr> recipient households, we use data from the annual <abbr>TANF</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr> case characteristics surveys for fiscal years 2000–2003 from the Office of Family Assistance.<sup><a href="#mn5" id="mt5">5</a></sup> By fiscal year 2003, approximately one in eight (12.6 percent) <abbr>TANF</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr> cases nationwide were in a household that included an adult <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipient; 1 in 20 (4.8 percent) included a child <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipient; 1 in 6 (16.1 percent) had an adult, a child, or both; and 1 in 80 (1.2 percent) had both (Table 2). Throughout the period, in each month more than 256,000 cases were linked to an adult <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipient, slightly less than 100,000 families included a child recipient, and well over 327,000 included an adult or a child <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipient.</p>
|
|
<div class="table" id="table2">
|
|
<table>
|
|
<caption><span class="tableNumber">Table 2. </span>Prevalence of <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> receipt in <abbr>TANF</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr> cases, fiscal years 2000–2003</caption>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:15em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="4" style="width:6em"></colgroup>
|
|
<thead>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stubHeading" id="c1"> </th>
|
|
<th id="c2">2000</th>
|
|
<th id="c3">2001</th>
|
|
<th id="c4">2002</th>
|
|
<th id="c5">2003</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</thead>
|
|
<tbody>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td></td>
|
|
<th class="panel" colspan="4" id="r1">Prevalence of <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> receipt in <abbr>TANF</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr> cases for states with acceptable data <sup>a</sup> (in percent)</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r2" headers="r1 c1"><span class="nobr">Adult(s)</span> with <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr></th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 c2">11.5</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 c3">13.7</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 c4">13.5</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 c5">12.6</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r3" headers="r1 c1"><span class="nobr">Child(ren)</span> with <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr></th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r3 c2">4.3</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r3 c3">4.7</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r3 c4">4.7</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r3 c5">4.8</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r4" headers="r1 c1"><span class="nobr">Adult(s)</span> or <span class="nobr">child(ren)</span> with <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr></th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r4 c2">15.2</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r4 c3">17.4</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r4 c4">17.1</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r4 c5">16.1</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r5" headers="r1 c1"><span class="nobr">Adult(s)</span> and <span class="nobr">child(ren)</span> with <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr></th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r5 c2">0.8</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r5 c3">1.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r5 c4">1.1</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r5 c5">1.2</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td></td>
|
|
<th class="panel" colspan="4" id="r6">Estimated total cases with <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r7" headers="r6 c1">Average monthly caseload</th>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r7 c2">2,264,806</td>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r7 c3">2,117,389</td>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r7 c4">2,065,423</td>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r7 c5">2,031,942</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r8" headers="r6 c1">Cases with—</th>
|
|
<td colspan="4"></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r9" headers="r6 r8 c1">Adult <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients</th>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r8 r9 c2">261,000</td>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r8 r9 c3">291,000</td>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r8 r9 c4">279,000</td>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r8 r9 c5">256,000</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r10" headers="r6 r8 c1">Child <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients</th>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r8 r10 c2">99,000</td>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r8 r10 c3">100,000</td>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r8 r10 c4">97,000</td>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r8 r10 c5">97,000</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r11" headers="r6 r8 c1">Any <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipient</th>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r8 r11 c2">343,000</td>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r8 r11 c3">368,000</td>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r8 r11 c4">352,000</td>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r8 r11 c5">327,000</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r12" headers="r6 r8 c1">Both adult and child recipients</th>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r8 r12 c2">18,000</td>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r8 r12 c3">21,000</td>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r8 r12 c4">22,000</td>
|
|
<td headers="r6 r8 r12 c5">24,000</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tbody>
|
|
<tfoot>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="firstNote" colspan="5">SOURCE: Authors' calculations using <abbr>TANF</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr> Recipient Characteristics Survey. Average monthly caseload data supplied by the Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Office of Family Assistance.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="lastNote" colspan="5">a. "Acceptable data" means that states followed the protocols of the Office of Family Assistance for recording case characteristics (<abbr class="spell">DHHS</abbr> 2002). States with acceptable data account for more than 85 percent of the <abbr>TANF</abbr> caseload. Estimates of total cases reported in the table are derived by applying prevalence percentages for states with acceptable data to total national caseloads.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tfoot>
|
|
</table>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<p>The adults and children counted in Table 2 are the beneficiaries of <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> awards in times past. We now look at the incidence of new awards to persons receiving <abbr>TANF</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr> assistance.</p>
|
|
<h2><abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> Awards to <abbr>TANF</abbr> Recipients</h2>
|
|
<p>Separate State Programs complicate efforts to gauge the importance of <abbr>TANF</abbr> in providing intermediate support for persons applying for <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>. The reason is that current procedures for recording <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> data do not treat receipt of assistance in an <abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr> as equivalent to being in <abbr>TANF</abbr>. The sequence of questions asked during an <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> eligibility interview focuses on information on "income based on need (<abbr>IBON</abbr>) that is wholly or partially federally funded." Such income is subsequently identified by code "F" in the applicant's Supplemental Security Record (<abbr class="spell">SSR</abbr>). Type F income includes many things (payments for foster care, various types of refugee cash assistance, and so on), but a limited review of data in the Modernized <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> Claims System indicates that <abbr>TANF</abbr> accounts for 95 percent or more of that income, and therefore the presence of such income may be taken as a <abbr>TANF</abbr> proxy. However, this marker is not available for adults and children in cases counted as part of an <abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr>. <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> program eligibility rules do not count assistance based on need (<abbr>ABON</abbr>) as income if it is wholly state funded. Separate State Programs fall into this category, so persons who are members of families receiving such benefits cannot be identified in the Social Security Administration's data as <abbr>TANF</abbr> related. Not all states have <abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr>s, but it is possible to use data on rates of <abbr>TANF</abbr>-related <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> applications in states that do not have this innovation to adjust data for the undercount in states that do. Before introducing this adjustment, we review the prevalence of reported Type F income for <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> awardees aged 64 or younger.</p>
|
|
<h3>Incidence of <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> Awards Without Adjustment for Separate State Programs</h3>
|
|
<p>Given that the data on case characteristics from the Office of Family Assistance are for the <span class="nobr">4-year</span> period fiscal years 2000–2003 and that reliable data on <abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr> recipiency are available only for this period, for comparability we concentrate here on awards made within this interval. Our incidence estimates are based on the 10 percent <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> applicants and awards sample commonly used within the Social Security Administration's Office of Policy for program analysis. The general tabulation of our extract, converted to an estimate of all <abbr>TANF</abbr>-related cases for each of the 4 years and compared with aggregate <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> applications for persons who, at the time of application, were aged 64 or younger, is shown in Table 3. (Note that tabulations of data from the Supplemental Security Record are for calendar, not fiscal, years to allow matching our data to published <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr> reports from the Social Security Administration on total <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> awards.)</p>
|
|
<div class="table" id="table3">
|
|
<table>
|
|
<caption><span class="tableNumber">Table 3. </span><abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> awards and those associated with <abbr>TANF</abbr>, by age at award, calendar years 2000–2003</caption>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:15em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="5" style="width:6em"></colgroup>
|
|
<thead>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stubHeading" scope="col"> </th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Average,<br>2000–2003</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">2000</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">2001</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">2002</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">2003</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</thead>
|
|
<tbody>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td></td>
|
|
<th class="panel" colspan="5" scope="rowgroup">All awardees aged 64 or younger</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Total <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> awards</th>
|
|
<td>676,665</td>
|
|
<td>627,560</td>
|
|
<td>659,490</td>
|
|
<td>702,600</td>
|
|
<td>717,010</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">Associated with <abbr>TANF</abbr> <sup>a</sup></th>
|
|
<td>95,498</td>
|
|
<td>96,620</td>
|
|
<td>95,270</td>
|
|
<td>96,940</td>
|
|
<td>93,160</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">Ratio of <abbr>TANF</abbr>-associated to total (percent)</th>
|
|
<td>14.1</td>
|
|
<td>15.4</td>
|
|
<td>14.4</td>
|
|
<td>13.8</td>
|
|
<td>13.0</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tbody>
|
|
<tbody>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td></td>
|
|
<th class="panel" colspan="5" scope="rowgroup">Awardees under age 18</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Total <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> awards</th>
|
|
<td>162,540</td>
|
|
<td>144,540</td>
|
|
<td>156,900</td>
|
|
<td>169,130</td>
|
|
<td>179,590</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">Associated with <abbr>TANF</abbr> <sup>a</sup></th>
|
|
<td>46,710</td>
|
|
<td>45,230</td>
|
|
<td>45,950</td>
|
|
<td>47,610</td>
|
|
<td>48,058</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">Ratio of <abbr>TANF</abbr>-associated to total (percent)</th>
|
|
<td>28.7</td>
|
|
<td>31.3</td>
|
|
<td>29.3</td>
|
|
<td>28.1</td>
|
|
<td>26.8</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tbody>
|
|
<tbody>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td></td>
|
|
<th class="panel" colspan="5" scope="rowgroup">Awardees aged <span class="nobr">18–64</span></th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Total <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> awards</th>
|
|
<td>514,125</td>
|
|
<td>483,020</td>
|
|
<td>502,590</td>
|
|
<td>533,470</td>
|
|
<td>537,420</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">Associated with <abbr>TANF</abbr> <sup>a</sup></th>
|
|
<td>48,788</td>
|
|
<td>51,390</td>
|
|
<td>49,320</td>
|
|
<td>49,330</td>
|
|
<td>45,110</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">Ratio of <abbr>TANF</abbr>-associated to total (percent)</th>
|
|
<td>9.5</td>
|
|
<td>10.6</td>
|
|
<td>9.8</td>
|
|
<td>9.2</td>
|
|
<td>8.4</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tbody>
|
|
<tfoot>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="firstNote" colspan="6">SOURCES: Social Security Administration (2004b), Table 47; authors' calculations from Social Security Administration, Supplemental Security Record (Characteristic Extract Record format), 10 percent sample.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="lastNote" colspan="6">a. Recorded as having federally funded "income based on need." See text.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tfoot>
|
|
</table>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<p>An average of 677,000 awards were made per year for all ages under 65. About three-fourths of these awards (514,125) were to working-age adults (ages <span class="nobr">18–64</span>). Awards to children and adults increased by 24 percent and 11 percent, respectively, over the 2000–2003 period. <abbr>TANF</abbr> does appear to provide important intermediate support for children and adults who later receive <abbr>SSI</abbr>: over the entire period, an average of 28.7 percent of all awards to children were to children living in families associated with <abbr>TANF</abbr> (by the presence of Type F income); for adults, the corresponding figure was 9.5 percent. Although the absolute numbers of <abbr>TANF</abbr>-associated awards to children went up over the period, the percentage of awards to both children and adults associated with <abbr>TANF</abbr> fell.</p>
|
|
<p>Adult <abbr>TANF</abbr> recipients are predominantly women (mothers). Less than 10 percent of adult <abbr>TANF</abbr> recipients in fiscal year 2003 were men (<abbr class="spell">DHHS</abbr> 2004, Tables 19 and 20). The connection between <abbr>TANF</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> is more clearly revealed if we consider awards to women by age. Over the <span class="nobr">4-year</span> period 2000–2003, more than a quarter of awards to women aged <span class="nobr">22–39</span> were linked to <abbr>TANF</abbr> (Table 4). Here, too, we see a downward trend: in each age category as well as overall, the proportion of awards going to women in families apparently receiving <abbr>TANF</abbr> generally declined.</p>
|
|
<div class="table" id="table4">
|
|
<table>
|
|
<caption><span class="tableNumber">Table 4. </span><abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> awards to women aged <span class="nobr">18–64</span>, by age at award, calendar years 2000–2003</caption>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:6em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="3" style="width:6em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="3" style="width:6em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="3" style="width:6em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="3" style="width:6em"></colgroup>
|
|
<thead>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stubHeading" rowspan="2" scope="colgroup">Age group</th>
|
|
<th class="spanner" colspan="3" scope="colgroup">2000</th>
|
|
<th class="spanner" colspan="3" scope="colgroup">2001</th>
|
|
<th class="spanner" colspan="3" scope="colgroup">2002</th>
|
|
<th class="spanner" colspan="3" scope="colgroup">2003</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th scope="col">Total<br><abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr><br>awards</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Associated<br>with <abbr>TANF</abbr> <sup>a</sup></th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Percentage<br>of awards<br>to group</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Total<br><abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr><br>awards</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Associated<br>with <abbr>TANF</abbr> <sup>a</sup></th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Percentage<br>of awards<br>to group</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Total<br><abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr><br>awards</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Associated<br>with <abbr>TANF</abbr> <sup>a</sup></th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Percentage<br>of awards<br>to group</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Total<br><abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr><br>awards</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Associated<br>with <abbr>TANF</abbr> <sup>a</sup></th>
|
|
<th scope="col">Percentage<br>of awards<br>to group</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</thead>
|
|
<tbody>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">All ages</th>
|
|
<td>248,100</td>
|
|
<td>39,100</td>
|
|
<td>15.8</td>
|
|
<td>258,020</td>
|
|
<td>38,110</td>
|
|
<td>14.8</td>
|
|
<td>270,640</td>
|
|
<td>37,290</td>
|
|
<td>13.8</td>
|
|
<td>273,410</td>
|
|
<td>34,450</td>
|
|
<td>12.6</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr class="topPad1">
|
|
<th class="stub0 nobr" scope="row">18–21</th>
|
|
<td>15,850</td>
|
|
<td>1,480</td>
|
|
<td>9.3</td>
|
|
<td>17,710</td>
|
|
<td>1,400</td>
|
|
<td>7.9</td>
|
|
<td>18,570</td>
|
|
<td>1,260</td>
|
|
<td>6.8</td>
|
|
<td>19,280</td>
|
|
<td>1,570</td>
|
|
<td>8.1</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0 nobr" scope="row">22–29</th>
|
|
<td>18,930</td>
|
|
<td>5,160</td>
|
|
<td>27.3</td>
|
|
<td>21,460</td>
|
|
<td>5,520</td>
|
|
<td>25.7</td>
|
|
<td>22,020</td>
|
|
<td>5,370</td>
|
|
<td>24.4</td>
|
|
<td>23,840</td>
|
|
<td>5,420</td>
|
|
<td>22.7</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0 nobr" scope="row">30–39</th>
|
|
<td>47,110</td>
|
|
<td>13,970</td>
|
|
<td>29.7</td>
|
|
<td>47,840</td>
|
|
<td>13,390</td>
|
|
<td>28.0</td>
|
|
<td>48,020</td>
|
|
<td>12,720</td>
|
|
<td>26.5</td>
|
|
<td>48,130</td>
|
|
<td>12,180</td>
|
|
<td>25.3</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0 nobr" scope="row">40–49</th>
|
|
<td>65,280</td>
|
|
<td>12,070</td>
|
|
<td>18.5</td>
|
|
<td>68,280</td>
|
|
<td>11,640</td>
|
|
<td>17.0</td>
|
|
<td>73,890</td>
|
|
<td>12,190</td>
|
|
<td>16.5</td>
|
|
<td>73,070</td>
|
|
<td>10,360</td>
|
|
<td>14.2</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0 nobr" scope="row">50–59</th>
|
|
<td>76,020</td>
|
|
<td>5,690</td>
|
|
<td>7.5</td>
|
|
<td>78,480</td>
|
|
<td>5,320</td>
|
|
<td>6.8</td>
|
|
<td>83,330</td>
|
|
<td>5,040</td>
|
|
<td>6.0</td>
|
|
<td>85,080</td>
|
|
<td>4,510</td>
|
|
<td>5.3</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0 nobr" scope="row">60–64</th>
|
|
<td>24,910</td>
|
|
<td>730</td>
|
|
<td>2.9</td>
|
|
<td>24,250</td>
|
|
<td>840</td>
|
|
<td>3.5</td>
|
|
<td>24,810</td>
|
|
<td>710</td>
|
|
<td>2.9</td>
|
|
<td>24,010</td>
|
|
<td>410</td>
|
|
<td>1.7</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tbody>
|
|
<tfoot>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="firstNote" colspan="13">SOURCE: Authors' calculations using data from Social Security Administration, Supplemental Security Record (Characteristic Extract Record format), 10 percent sample.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="lastNote" colspan="13">a. Recorded as having federally funded "income based on need." See text.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tfoot>
|
|
</table>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<h3>Incidence of <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> Awards with Adjustment for Separate State Programs</h3>
|
|
<p>Given the definition of Type F income, the recent growth in <abbr>TANF</abbr> Separate State Programs means that the estimates of <abbr>TANF</abbr>-related <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> awards in Tables 3 and 4 are biased downward, and the understatement is growing over time. To correct for this distortion, we exploit the facts that our <abbr class="spell">SSR</abbr> extract provides awards by state and that not all states have <abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr>s. Our approach, described in detail in the appendix, is to regress annual <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> awards for states on state <abbr>TANF</abbr> plus <abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr> recipiency and to study how the incidence of awards varies with the use of <abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr>s. We use the results to adjust our estimates of the proportions of <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> applicants who come from <abbr>TANF</abbr> families in states with <abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr>s. Our estimates indicate that, by 2003, states' use of <abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr>s led to an aggregate understatement of <abbr>TANF</abbr>-related <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> awards of 26 percent for adults and 24 percent for children.</p>
|
|
<p>The <abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr> adjustment makes a significant difference (see Table 5, which combines these estimates with the preadjustment data in Table 3). We estimate that over the period 2001–2003, failure to account for <abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr>s produced an undercount of the proportion of <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> awardees coming from <abbr>TANF</abbr> households of about 6.3 percentage points for children and 2.5 percentage points for adults. The figures for adults are aggregate, covering men and women in all adult age groups. Given that <abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr>s are commonly used specifically for cases in which adults are believed to be good candidates for <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> awards, the undercount produced by the <abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr> option probably accrues principally among younger women. Looking back at the unadjusted data on awards to women in Table 4, the aggregate adjustment suggests that if the revised data were detailed enough to support division by age and sex, the numbers for women associated with <abbr>TANF</abbr> would increase substantially for women younger than age 40, and as many as a third of <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> awards to women aged <span class="nobr">22–39</span> would be to <abbr>TANF</abbr> recipients.</p>
|
|
<div class="table" id="table5">
|
|
<table>
|
|
<caption><span class="tableNumber">Table 5. </span>Undercounts resulting when <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> awards data are adjusted for Separate State Programs, calendar years 2001–2003</caption>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:15em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="4" style="width:6em"></colgroup>
|
|
<thead>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stubHeading" id="c1"> </th>
|
|
<th id="c2">All,<br>2001–2003</th>
|
|
<th id="c3">2001</th>
|
|
<th id="c4">2002</th>
|
|
<th id="c5">2003</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</thead>
|
|
<tbody>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td></td>
|
|
<th class="panel" colspan="4" id="r1">Under age 18</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub2" id="r2" headers="r1 c1">Total <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> awards</th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 c2">505,620</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 c3">156,900</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 c4">169,130</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r2 c5">179,590</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr class="topPad1">
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r3" headers="r1 c1">Associated with <abbr>TANF</abbr> <sup>a</sup></th>
|
|
<td colspan="4"></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r4" headers="r1 r3 c1">Unadjusted</th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r3 r4 c2">141,610</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r3 r4 c3">45,950</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r3 r4 c4">47,610</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r3 r4 c5">48,050</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r5" headers="r1 r3 c1">Adjusted</th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r3 r5 c2">173,586</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r3 r5 c3">46,753</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r3 r5 c4">63,589</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r3 r5 c5">63,244</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr class="topPad1">
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r6" headers="r1 c1">Unadjusted ratio of <abbr>TANF</abbr>-associated to total (percent)</th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r6 c2">28.0</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r6 c3">29.3</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r6 c4">28.1</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r6 c5">26.8</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr class="topPad1">
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r7" headers="r1 c1">Adjusted ratio of <abbr>TANF</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr>-associated to total (percent)</th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 c2">34.3</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 c3">29.8</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 c4">37.6</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r7 c5">35.2</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr class="topPad1">
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r8" headers="r1 c1">Resulting undercount (percentage points)</th>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r8 c2">6.3</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r8 c3">0.5</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r8 c4">9.5</td>
|
|
<td headers="r1 r8 c5">8.4</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td></td>
|
|
<th class="panel" colspan="4" id="r9">Aged <span class="nobr">18–64</span></th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub2" id="r10" headers="r9 c1">Total <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> awards</th>
|
|
<td headers="r9 r10 c2">1,573,480</td>
|
|
<td headers="r9 r10 c3">502,590</td>
|
|
<td headers="r9 r10 c4">533,470</td>
|
|
<td headers="r9 r10 c5">533,420</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr class="topPad1">
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r11" headers="r9 c1">Associated with <abbr>TANF</abbr> <sup>a</sup></th>
|
|
<td colspan="4"></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r12" headers="r9 r11 c1">Unadjusted</th>
|
|
<td headers="r9 r11 r12 c2">143,760</td>
|
|
<td headers="r9 r11 r12 c3">49,320</td>
|
|
<td headers="r9 r11 r12 c4">49,330</td>
|
|
<td headers="r9 r11 r12 c5">45,110</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" id="r13" headers="r9 r11 c1">Adjusted</th>
|
|
<td headers="r9 r11 r13 c2">182,302</td>
|
|
<td headers="r9 r11 r13 c3">53,764</td>
|
|
<td headers="r9 r11 r13 c4">67,805</td>
|
|
<td headers="r9 r11 r13 c5">60,733</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr class="topPad1">
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r14" headers="r9 c1">Unadjusted ratio of <abbr>TANF</abbr>-associated to total (percent)</th>
|
|
<td headers="r9 r14 c2">9.1</td>
|
|
<td headers="r9 r14 c3">9.8</td>
|
|
<td headers="r9 r14 c4">9.2</td>
|
|
<td headers="r9 r14 c5">8.4</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr class="topPad1">
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r15" headers="r9 c1">Adjusted ratio of <abbr>TANF</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr>-associated to total (percent)</th>
|
|
<td headers="r9 r15 c2">11.6</td>
|
|
<td headers="r9 r15 c3">10.7</td>
|
|
<td headers="r9 r15 c4">12.7</td>
|
|
<td headers="r9 r15 c5">11.3</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr class="topPad1">
|
|
<th class="stub0" id="r16" headers="r9 c1">Resulting undercount (percentage points)</th>
|
|
<td headers="r9 r16 c2">2.5</td>
|
|
<td headers="r9 r16 c3">0.9</td>
|
|
<td headers="r9 r16 c4">3.5</td>
|
|
<td headers="r9 r16 c5">2.9</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tbody>
|
|
<tfoot>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="firstNote" colspan="5">SOURCES: Authors' calculations using data from Social Security Administration, Supplemental Security Record (Characteristic Extract Record format), 10 percent sample, and <abbr>TANF</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr> caseload data provided by the Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Office of Family Assistance. See appendix for methodology.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="lastNote" colspan="5">a. Recorded as having federally funded "income based on need." See text.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tfoot>
|
|
</table>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<h3>The Bottom Line: Incidence of <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> Awards Before and After the Advent of <abbr>TANF</abbr></h3>
|
|
<p>The last step in our analysis is to compare flows from <abbr class="spell">AFDC</abbr> to <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> before <abbr>TANF</abbr> with the results we have developed for calendar years 2001–2003. The <abbr class="spell">SSR</abbr> extract allows us to replicate our procedure for identifying <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> awards to recipients of public assistance for pre-<abbr>TANF</abbr> years and to compare the incidence of awards with adjusted rates for 2001–2003. We choose 1991–1993 and 1994–1996 for this purpose; these intervals cover the rapid caseload increase (1991–1993) and decrease (1994–1996) before implementation of the 1996 reforms under <abbr class="spell">PRWORA</abbr> (see Chart 1 for corresponding fiscal year data).</p>
|
|
<p>Our analysis indicates that the incidence of <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> awards among <abbr>TANF</abbr> recipients has been much greater in recent years than it was during the early 1990s (Table 6). Award rates for children rose from an average of 0.92 per month per 1,000 child <abbr>TANF</abbr> recipients in 1991–1993 to 1.28 per 1,000 in 2001–2003. The change was even more dramatic for adults. On average in each month of 1991–1993, 1.55 <abbr>TANF</abbr>-linked <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> awards were made per 1,000 recipients. By 2001–2003, the average rate was slightly over 4 per 1,000 per month. Although the number of <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> awards associated with welfare went down between 1991–1993 and 2001–2003 by 42 percent for children and 25 percent for adults, the caseload fell substantially more, so incidence rose.</p>
|
|
<div class="table" id="table6">
|
|
<table>
|
|
<caption><span class="tableNumber">Table 6. </span>Incidence of <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> awards to recipients of assistance before and after the 1996 reforms, by age (monthly averages)</caption>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:10em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="3" style="width:8em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="3" style="width:8em"></colgroup>
|
|
<thead>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stubHeading" rowspan="2" scope="colgroup">Calendar year</th>
|
|
<th class="spanner" colspan="3" scope="colgroup">Under age 18</th>
|
|
<th class="spanner" colspan="3" scope="colgroup">Aged <span class="nobr">18–64</span></th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th scope="col"><abbr class="spell">AFDC</abbr>/<abbr>TANF</abbr> recipients (thousands)</th>
|
|
<th scope="col"><abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> awards associated with <abbr class="spell">AFDC</abbr>/<abbr>TANF</abbr> <sup>a</sup></th>
|
|
<th scope="col"><abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> awards per 1,000 recipients</th>
|
|
<th scope="col"><abbr class="spell">AFDC</abbr>/<abbr>TANF</abbr> recipients (thousands)</th>
|
|
<th scope="col"><abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> awards associated with <abbr class="spell">AFDC</abbr>/<abbr>TANF</abbr> <sup>a</sup></th>
|
|
<th scope="col"><abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> awards per 1,000 recipients</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</thead>
|
|
<tbody>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td></td>
|
|
<th class="panel" colspan="6" scope="rowgroup">Before reform (<abbr class="spell">AFDC</abbr>)</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Total, 1991–1993</th>
|
|
<td>9,060</td>
|
|
<td>8,329</td>
|
|
<td>0.92</td>
|
|
<td>4,375</td>
|
|
<td>6,768</td>
|
|
<td>1.55</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">1991</th>
|
|
<td>8,576</td>
|
|
<td>5,308</td>
|
|
<td>0.62</td>
|
|
<td>4,152</td>
|
|
<td>5,151</td>
|
|
<td>1.24</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">1992</th>
|
|
<td>9,165</td>
|
|
<td>9,474</td>
|
|
<td>1.03</td>
|
|
<td>4,406</td>
|
|
<td>7,366</td>
|
|
<td>1.67</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">1993</th>
|
|
<td>9,439</td>
|
|
<td>10,204</td>
|
|
<td>1.08</td>
|
|
<td>4,568</td>
|
|
<td>7,788</td>
|
|
<td>1.70</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr class="topPad1">
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Total, 1994–1996</th>
|
|
<td>8,936</td>
|
|
<td>7,012</td>
|
|
<td>0.78</td>
|
|
<td>4,186</td>
|
|
<td>6,919</td>
|
|
<td>1.65</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">1994</th>
|
|
<td>9,439</td>
|
|
<td>8,595</td>
|
|
<td>0.91</td>
|
|
<td>4,532</td>
|
|
<td>7,200</td>
|
|
<td>1.59</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">1995</th>
|
|
<td>9,014</td>
|
|
<td>7,123</td>
|
|
<td>0.79</td>
|
|
<td>4,228</td>
|
|
<td>7,170</td>
|
|
<td>1.70</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">1996</th>
|
|
<td>8,356</td>
|
|
<td>5,318</td>
|
|
<td>0.64</td>
|
|
<td>3,800</td>
|
|
<td>6,388</td>
|
|
<td>1.68</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tbody>
|
|
<tbody>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td></td>
|
|
<th class="panel" colspan="6" scope="rowgroup">After reform (<abbr>TANF</abbr>)</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Total, 2001–2003</th>
|
|
<td>3,770</td>
|
|
<td>4,822</td>
|
|
<td>1.28</td>
|
|
<td>1,263</td>
|
|
<td>5,064</td>
|
|
<td>4.01</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2001</th>
|
|
<td>3,926</td>
|
|
<td>3,896</td>
|
|
<td>0.99</td>
|
|
<td>1,347</td>
|
|
<td>4,480</td>
|
|
<td>3.33</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2002</th>
|
|
<td>3,744</td>
|
|
<td>5,299</td>
|
|
<td>1.42</td>
|
|
<td>1,249</td>
|
|
<td>5,650</td>
|
|
<td>4.52</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2003</th>
|
|
<td>3,641</td>
|
|
<td>5,270</td>
|
|
<td>1.45</td>
|
|
<td>1,192</td>
|
|
<td>5,061</td>
|
|
<td>4.25</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tbody>
|
|
<tfoot>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="firstNote" colspan="7">SOURCES: Social Security Administration (2004b), Table 47; authors' calculations from Social Security Administration, Supplemental Security Record (Characteristic Extract Record format), 10 percent sample.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="lastNote" colspan="7">a. Recorded as having federally funded "income based on need." <abbr>TANF</abbr> data are adjusted for the undercount related to Separate State Programs. See text.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tfoot>
|
|
</table>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<p>These results do not necessarily mean that states are now more aggressively pursuing <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> eligibility for their <abbr>TANF</abbr> clients; it could be that families with disabilities are still likely to get into <abbr>TANF</abbr> and so the decline in recipiency among this group has been smaller than the decline in the use of welfare among families without such barriers.</p>
|
|
<h2>Conclusion</h2>
|
|
<p>A significant proportion of each year's <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> awards to disabled people aged 64 or younger go to <abbr>TANF</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr> recipients, and many families that receive support from <abbr>TANF</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr> include adults, children, or both who receive <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>. Given the Social Security Administration's efforts to improve eligibility assessment for applicants, to ensure timely access to <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> benefits for individuals who qualify, and to improve prospects for eventual employment of the disabled, there is definitely a basis for working with <abbr>TANF</abbr> authorities both nationally and locally on coordinating services and on smoothing the process of assessing <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> eligibility.</p>
|
|
<p>In February 2006, the President signed the Deficit Reduction Act of 2005. Among other things, this legislation reauthorized <abbr>TANF</abbr> through fiscal year 2010, but with some rules changes that are important in light of the analysis presented in this article. The new law substantially increases effective federal requirements for work participation by adult <abbr>TANF</abbr> recipients and mandates that adults in Separate State Programs be included in participation requirements beginning in fiscal year 2007. Thus, Separate State Programs will no longer provide a means for exempting from work requirements families in the process of applying for <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>, and the increased emphasis on work participation may result in more <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> applications from adult <abbr>TANF</abbr> recipients.</p>
|
|
<h2>Appendix</h2>
|
|
<p>As indicated in this article, Separate State Programs are relevant to assessing the overlap between the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families and Supplemental Security Income programs, but the Social Security Administration's current procedures for recording data do not identify awardees receiving benefits in <abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr>s as being linked to <abbr>TANF</abbr>. In the first years of <abbr>TANF</abbr>'s operation, considerable confusion existed over what states could do with <abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr>s, when such outlays amounted to income support, when <abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr> expenditures counted toward maintenance of effort, and what reporting was required on the use of funds in this way. These requirements are now well established, and states have increased their use of <abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr>s. In fiscal year 2000, 24 states had one or more <abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr>s, and in 17 of them at least one of the <abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr>s was specifically designed for two-parent families. By fiscal year 2003 this number had increased to 31, with 24 states providing benefits to two-parent families in this way.</p>
|
|
<p>The recent growth in <abbr>TANF</abbr> Separate State Programs means that the estimates of <abbr>TANF</abbr>-related <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> awards based only on the presence of federally funded income based on need (Type F income) in <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients' Supplemental Security Records are biased downward, and the understatement is growing over time. We correct for this understatement by exploiting the facts that our <abbr class="spell">SSR</abbr> extract provides awards by state and that not all states have <abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr>s. We regress annual <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> awards for states on state <abbr>TANF</abbr> plus <abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr> recipiency and study the way in which the incidence of awards varies with use of <abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr>s. Given states' overall <abbr>TANF</abbr> + <abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr> recipiency, we expect that <abbr>TANF</abbr>-related <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> awards should decline as the number of people in <abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr>s grows. Our statistical model incorporates a lag between award rates and the <abbr>TANF</abbr>/<abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr> caseload. Before presenting the model, we justify the lag.</p>
|
|
<h3>The Lag Between Application and Award</h3>
|
|
<p><abbr>TANF</abbr> is important to <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> policy in part because the program supports families awaiting action on their SSI application. Awards take time, and a sense of this lag is provided by our <abbr class="spell">SSR</abbr> extract. We have calculated the time between the date of most recent application and first SSI payment for all awards over the calendar year 2000–2003 period. The results for adults and children appear in Chart <span class="nobr">A-1</span>.</p>
|
|
<div class="chartCenter">
|
|
<div class="chart700" id="chartA1">
|
|
<div class="title">Chart <span class="nobr">A-1</span>.<br>Months elapsed between <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> application and award for adult and child <abbr>TANF</abbr> recipients, by year of award, calendar years 2000–2003</div>
|
|
<div class="scrollChart">
|
|
<div class="panel">Adult <abbr>TANF</abbr> recipients</div>
|
|
<img src="v66n4p21_charta1a.gif" width="534" height="270" alt="Line chart with tabular version below." />
|
|
<div class="panel">Child <abbr>TANF</abbr> recipients</div>
|
|
<img src="v66n4p21_charta1b.gif" width="534" height="270" alt="Line chart with tabular version below." /></div>
|
|
<div class="table altTable"><a class="altToggle" href="">Show as table</a>
|
|
<table>
|
|
<caption><span class="tableNumber">Table equivalent for Chart A-1. </span>Months elapsed between <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> application and award for adult and child <abbr>TANF</abbr> recipients, by year of award, calendar years <span class="nobr">2000–2003</span></caption>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:10em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="4" style="width:6em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="4" style="width:6em"></colgroup>
|
|
<thead>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th rowspan="2" class="stubHeading" scope="colgroup">Months between application and award</th>
|
|
<th colspan="4" class="spanner" scope="colgroup">Adult <abbr>TANF</abbr> recipients, cumulative percentage</th>
|
|
<th colspan="4" class="spanner" scope="colgroup">Child <abbr>TANF</abbr> recipients, cumulative percentage</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th scope="col">2000</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">2001</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">2002</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">2003</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">2000</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">2001</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">2002</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">2003</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</thead>
|
|
<tbody>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">0</th>
|
|
<td>0.000</td>
|
|
<td>0.000</td>
|
|
<td>0.000</td>
|
|
<td>0.000</td>
|
|
<td>0.000</td>
|
|
<td>0.000</td>
|
|
<td>0.000</td>
|
|
<td>0.000</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">1</th>
|
|
<td>1.148</td>
|
|
<td>1.379</td>
|
|
<td>1.338</td>
|
|
<td>0.865</td>
|
|
<td>2.742</td>
|
|
<td>2.786</td>
|
|
<td>2.773</td>
|
|
<td>2.789</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">2</th>
|
|
<td>5.370</td>
|
|
<td>5.575</td>
|
|
<td>4.936</td>
|
|
<td>3.976</td>
|
|
<td>11.740</td>
|
|
<td>12.842</td>
|
|
<td>12.720</td>
|
|
<td>12.556</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">3</th>
|
|
<td>13.008</td>
|
|
<td>14.009</td>
|
|
<td>12.621</td>
|
|
<td>10.244</td>
|
|
<td>27.003</td>
|
|
<td>28.484</td>
|
|
<td>28.703</td>
|
|
<td>28.757</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">4</th>
|
|
<td>23.100</td>
|
|
<td>23.359</td>
|
|
<td>21.830</td>
|
|
<td>19.447</td>
|
|
<td>43.177</td>
|
|
<td>43.842</td>
|
|
<td>45.002</td>
|
|
<td>45.229</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">5</th>
|
|
<td>32.583</td>
|
|
<td>33.483</td>
|
|
<td>30.795</td>
|
|
<td>28.404</td>
|
|
<td>56.174</td>
|
|
<td>57.520</td>
|
|
<td>59.408</td>
|
|
<td>59.703</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">6</th>
|
|
<td>40.064</td>
|
|
<td>41.550</td>
|
|
<td>39.130</td>
|
|
<td>35.561</td>
|
|
<td>66.838</td>
|
|
<td>67.620</td>
|
|
<td>69.166</td>
|
|
<td>71.219</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">7</th>
|
|
<td>46.328</td>
|
|
<td>48.394</td>
|
|
<td>45.534</td>
|
|
<td>41.718</td>
|
|
<td>72.859</td>
|
|
<td>74.753</td>
|
|
<td>75.096</td>
|
|
<td>77.883</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">8</th>
|
|
<td>50.294</td>
|
|
<td>53.263</td>
|
|
<td>49.519</td>
|
|
<td>45.830</td>
|
|
<td>76.858</td>
|
|
<td>79.487</td>
|
|
<td>79.618</td>
|
|
<td>81.902</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">9</th>
|
|
<td>53.279</td>
|
|
<td>57.134</td>
|
|
<td>52.893</td>
|
|
<td>49.075</td>
|
|
<td>80.702</td>
|
|
<td>83.196</td>
|
|
<td>83.340</td>
|
|
<td>84.859</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">10</th>
|
|
<td>55.831</td>
|
|
<td>59.598</td>
|
|
<td>55.292</td>
|
|
<td>51.920</td>
|
|
<td>83.413</td>
|
|
<td>85.879</td>
|
|
<td>85.612</td>
|
|
<td>87.212</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">11</th>
|
|
<td>58.501</td>
|
|
<td>61.819</td>
|
|
<td>57.610</td>
|
|
<td>54.188</td>
|
|
<td>85.390</td>
|
|
<td>87.493</td>
|
|
<td>87.378</td>
|
|
<td>88.774</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">12</th>
|
|
<td>60.779</td>
|
|
<td>63.611</td>
|
|
<td>59.439</td>
|
|
<td>55.988</td>
|
|
<td>86.901</td>
|
|
<td>88.955</td>
|
|
<td>88.871</td>
|
|
<td>90.002</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">13</th>
|
|
<td>63.430</td>
|
|
<td>65.119</td>
|
|
<td>61.188</td>
|
|
<td>57.766</td>
|
|
<td>87.834</td>
|
|
<td>89.849</td>
|
|
<td>89.776</td>
|
|
<td>90.815</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">14</th>
|
|
<td>66.120</td>
|
|
<td>67.095</td>
|
|
<td>62.814</td>
|
|
<td>59.544</td>
|
|
<td>88.811</td>
|
|
<td>90.591</td>
|
|
<td>90.470</td>
|
|
<td>91.502</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">15</th>
|
|
<td>68.535</td>
|
|
<td>68.908</td>
|
|
<td>64.298</td>
|
|
<td>60.967</td>
|
|
<td>90.078</td>
|
|
<td>91.420</td>
|
|
<td>91.080</td>
|
|
<td>91.918</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">16</th>
|
|
<td>71.205</td>
|
|
<td>70.802</td>
|
|
<td>66.270</td>
|
|
<td>63.278</td>
|
|
<td>90.811</td>
|
|
<td>92.075</td>
|
|
<td>91.605</td>
|
|
<td>92.418</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">17</th>
|
|
<td>73.522</td>
|
|
<td>72.575</td>
|
|
<td>68.221</td>
|
|
<td>65.323</td>
|
|
<td>91.544</td>
|
|
<td>92.685</td>
|
|
<td>91.879</td>
|
|
<td>92.731</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">18</th>
|
|
<td>76.389</td>
|
|
<td>74.510</td>
|
|
<td>69.990</td>
|
|
<td>66.968</td>
|
|
<td>92.100</td>
|
|
<td>93.318</td>
|
|
<td>92.299</td>
|
|
<td>93.168</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">19</th>
|
|
<td>78.902</td>
|
|
<td>76.608</td>
|
|
<td>72.267</td>
|
|
<td>68.946</td>
|
|
<td>92.766</td>
|
|
<td>93.820</td>
|
|
<td>92.888</td>
|
|
<td>93.459</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">20</th>
|
|
<td>81.062</td>
|
|
<td>78.788</td>
|
|
<td>74.808</td>
|
|
<td>71.458</td>
|
|
<td>93.277</td>
|
|
<td>94.343</td>
|
|
<td>93.267</td>
|
|
<td>93.813</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">21</th>
|
|
<td>82.927</td>
|
|
<td>81.008</td>
|
|
<td>76.943</td>
|
|
<td>74.036</td>
|
|
<td>93.744</td>
|
|
<td>95.041</td>
|
|
<td>93.877</td>
|
|
<td>94.376</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">22</th>
|
|
<td>84.891</td>
|
|
<td>82.780</td>
|
|
<td>79.118</td>
|
|
<td>76.304</td>
|
|
<td>94.121</td>
|
|
<td>95.369</td>
|
|
<td>94.255</td>
|
|
<td>94.750</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">23</th>
|
|
<td>86.226</td>
|
|
<td>84.430</td>
|
|
<td>81.192</td>
|
|
<td>78.371</td>
|
|
<td>94.654</td>
|
|
<td>95.783</td>
|
|
<td>94.760</td>
|
|
<td>95.125</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">24</th>
|
|
<td>87.522</td>
|
|
<td>85.999</td>
|
|
<td>83.265</td>
|
|
<td>80.416</td>
|
|
<td>95.121</td>
|
|
<td>96.110</td>
|
|
<td>95.181</td>
|
|
<td>95.479</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">25</th>
|
|
<td>88.778</td>
|
|
<td>87.445</td>
|
|
<td>85.257</td>
|
|
<td>82.549</td>
|
|
<td>95.365</td>
|
|
<td>96.372</td>
|
|
<td>95.538</td>
|
|
<td>95.937</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">26</th>
|
|
<td>89.956</td>
|
|
<td>88.647</td>
|
|
<td>87.006</td>
|
|
<td>84.350</td>
|
|
<td>95.676</td>
|
|
<td>96.459</td>
|
|
<td>95.917</td>
|
|
<td>96.271</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">27</th>
|
|
<td>90.820</td>
|
|
<td>89.788</td>
|
|
<td>88.368</td>
|
|
<td>86.061</td>
|
|
<td>95.921</td>
|
|
<td>96.765</td>
|
|
<td>96.358</td>
|
|
<td>96.625</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">28</th>
|
|
<td>91.409</td>
|
|
<td>90.705</td>
|
|
<td>89.730</td>
|
|
<td>87.595</td>
|
|
<td>96.076</td>
|
|
<td>97.070</td>
|
|
<td>96.737</td>
|
|
<td>96.958</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">29</th>
|
|
<td>91.979</td>
|
|
<td>91.580</td>
|
|
<td>90.767</td>
|
|
<td>88.773</td>
|
|
<td>96.210</td>
|
|
<td>97.223</td>
|
|
<td>97.031</td>
|
|
<td>97.208</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">30</th>
|
|
<td>92.391</td>
|
|
<td>92.355</td>
|
|
<td>91.783</td>
|
|
<td>90.218</td>
|
|
<td>96.432</td>
|
|
<td>97.310</td>
|
|
<td>97.199</td>
|
|
<td>97.395</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">31</th>
|
|
<td>92.921</td>
|
|
<td>93.088</td>
|
|
<td>92.556</td>
|
|
<td>91.196</td>
|
|
<td>96.499</td>
|
|
<td>97.354</td>
|
|
<td>97.305</td>
|
|
<td>97.645</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">32</th>
|
|
<td>93.235</td>
|
|
<td>93.618</td>
|
|
<td>93.491</td>
|
|
<td>91.952</td>
|
|
<td>96.565</td>
|
|
<td>97.528</td>
|
|
<td>97.599</td>
|
|
<td>97.833</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">33</th>
|
|
<td>93.765</td>
|
|
<td>94.045</td>
|
|
<td>93.999</td>
|
|
<td>92.885</td>
|
|
<td>96.654</td>
|
|
<td>97.899</td>
|
|
<td>97.746</td>
|
|
<td>98.062</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">34</th>
|
|
<td>94.040</td>
|
|
<td>94.534</td>
|
|
<td>94.385</td>
|
|
<td>93.596</td>
|
|
<td>96.765</td>
|
|
<td>97.921</td>
|
|
<td>97.957</td>
|
|
<td>98.187</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">35</th>
|
|
<td>94.354</td>
|
|
<td>94.962</td>
|
|
<td>94.751</td>
|
|
<td>94.108</td>
|
|
<td>96.854</td>
|
|
<td>97.965</td>
|
|
<td>98.020</td>
|
|
<td>98.249</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">36</th>
|
|
<td>94.570</td>
|
|
<td>95.186</td>
|
|
<td>95.077</td>
|
|
<td>94.619</td>
|
|
<td>96.898</td>
|
|
<td>98.074</td>
|
|
<td>98.146</td>
|
|
<td>98.416</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="row">37</th>
|
|
<td>94.806</td>
|
|
<td>95.492</td>
|
|
<td>95.402</td>
|
|
<td>95.286</td>
|
|
<td>97.010</td>
|
|
<td>98.161</td>
|
|
<td>98.167</td>
|
|
<td>98.561</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tbody>
|
|
<tfoot>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="noNotes" colspan="9"> </td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tfoot>
|
|
</table>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<div class="onlyNote">SOURCE: Authors' calculations using data from Social Security Administration, Supplemental Security Record (Characteristic Extract Record format), 10 percent sample.</div>
|
|
</div>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<p>In Chart <span class="nobr">A-1</span>, each line identifies the cumulative proportion of the year's award recipients who are accounted for by an elapsed time between application and award date that is equal to or less than the specified number of months. Thus in the adult chart, reading upward from the <span class="nobr">12-month</span> tick mark, we find that approximately 55 percent of awards in 2003 were to persons who had applied for <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> no more than 12 months before. The fact that none of the lines reach 100 percent at the <span class="nobr">36-month</span> point indicates that some <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> awards were obtained only after more than 3 years of review and, presumably, adjudication.</p>
|
|
<p>Note that children's awards are typically made much more quickly. By 2003, almost 90 percent of awards to <abbr class="spell">TANF</abbr>-related children were made within 12 months of application. In contrast to the results for adults, elapsed time between application and award for children has been falling over time. Nevertheless, <abbr class="spell">TANF</abbr>-related awards for children and adults in any fiscal year are clearly a function of both current and past <abbr class="spell">TANF</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr> caseloads, and our model must accommodate this.</p>
|
|
<h3>The Model</h3>
|
|
<p>When <abbr>TANF</abbr> recipients are placed in Separate State Programs, the ability to identify the case as related to <abbr>TANF</abbr> is lost because the Social Security Administration's procedures do not count such income as Type F. To gauge the significance of this effect, we estimate the coefficients of ta regression of <abbr>TANF</abbr>-related <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> awards, by state, on states' <abbr>TANF</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr> caseloads. The regression (equation 1) appears in the box below; we estimate coefficients separately for adults and children.</p>
|
|
<div class="textBox2">
|
|
<div class="title">Equation 1.</div>
|
|
<p class="hundredpercent noindent"><abbr>TANF</abbr>-related <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> awards to adults or children in state <i>s</i> in year <i>t</i><br> <span class="leftpad1">= β<sub>0</sub></span><br> <span class="leftpad1">+ β<sub>1</sub> [(TANF + SSP adult/child recipients) in state <i>s</i> in year <i>t</i>]</span><br> <span class="leftpad1">+ β<sub>2</sub> (SSP adult/child recipients in state <i>s</i> in year <i>t</i>)</span><br> <span class="leftpad1">+ β<sub>3</sub> [(TANF + SSP adult/child recipients) in state <i>s</i> in year <i>t-1</i>]</span><br> <span class="leftpad1">+ β<sub>4</sub> (SSP adult/child recipients in state <i>s</i> in year <i>t-1</i>)</span><br> <span class="leftpad1">+ β<sub>5</sub> (Predicted adult/child SSI awards in state <i>s</i> in year <i>t</i>)</span><br> <span class="leftpad1">+ ε<sub>t</sub></span><br> where ε<sub>t</sub> ~ <i>N</i>(0, σ<sub>t</sub>) </p>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<p>We expect that "steady state" <abbr>TANF</abbr>-related <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> awards will be positively related to caseloads, so the sum (β<sub>1</sub> + β<sub>3</sub>) should be greater than 0. We have argued, however, that the Social Security Administration's procedures for recording data fail to identify persons in <abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr>s. Therefore, when comparing states with and without <abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr>s, states with <abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr>s should have a lower incidence of awards linked to <abbr>TANF</abbr>, which implies that (β<sub>2</sub> + β<sub>4</sub>) is less than 0. Furthermore, because requirements apply only to adults and because adult <abbr>TANF</abbr> benefits often exceed benefits for children, the states have far greater incentives to place families with adults with disabilities in <abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr>s than they do for families with children who are <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> candidates. Thus, although we expect states with <abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr>s to have depressed rates of identified <abbr>TANF</abbr>-to-<abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> transfer for both adults and children, the effect should be stronger for adults. Since the 4 years we consider clearly involve states' learning about the <abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr> option, the coefficients are likely to change. Accordingly, we estimate separate equations for each year rather than pooling our data.</p>
|
|
<p>The model could be limited to variables <span class="nobr">1–4</span>, that is, current and immediate past caseloads, because the data in Chart <span class="nobr">A-1</span> imply that current awards are generally for people who applied within the past 2 years. However, we have not modeled the state's decision to adopt the <abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr> option. If states creating <abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr>s are states that are exceptionally prone to promoting application for <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>, then the error term in the equation is correlated with two of the right-hand variables (those related to numbers of cases in <abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr>s) and the coefficient estimates will be biased. To capture this state effect, we have added a fifth variable that reflects typical flows from <abbr>AFDC</abbr> to <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> in the state in the period running up to the passage of the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act. This variable—the "predicted adult/child <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> awards in state <i>s</i> in year <i>t</i>" variable—is defined as the product of the <abbr>TANF</abbr> + <abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr> caseload in state <i>s</i> in period <i>t</i> multiplied by the "predicted award rate" <i>p<sub>s</sub></i> (the average over the 1994–1996 period of the ratio of <abbr class="spell">AFDC</abbr>-related <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> awards to the <abbr class="spell">AFDC</abbr> caseload in state <i>s</i>). Including this variable causes all other effects to be defined relative to what would have occurred had award rates among <abbr>TANF</abbr> recipients been the same as award rates before <abbr>TANF</abbr>. "State effects" should be captured here.</p>
|
|
<h3>Estimation Results</h3>
|
|
<p>The estimation results are reported in Table <span class="nobr">A-1</span> (for adults) and Table <span class="nobr">A-2</span> (for children). Because the regressions involve counts of recipients in the current and preceding year, we can estimate the coefficients of the model only for the last 3 of the 4 years for which we have data.<sup><a href="#mn6" id="mt6">6</a></sup> We report estimated coefficients and the weighted mean value of <i>p<sub>s</sub></i> for each year (mean <i>p</i> changes slightly because of changes in the distribution of cases across states).</p>
|
|
<div class="table" id="tableA1">
|
|
<table>
|
|
<caption><span class="tableNumber">Table <span class="nobr">A-1</span>. </span>Regressions for <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> awards to adults, 2001–2003</caption>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:15em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="2" style="width:6em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="2" style="width:6em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="2" style="width:6em"></colgroup>
|
|
<thead>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stubHeading" rowspan="2" scope="colgroup" id="c1">Variable</th>
|
|
<th class="spanner" colspan="2" scope="colgroup" id="c2">2001</th>
|
|
<th class="spanner" colspan="2" scope="colgroup" id="c3">2002</th>
|
|
<th class="spanner" colspan="2" scope="colgroup" id="c4">2003</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th scope="col" id="c5">Coefficient</th>
|
|
<th scope="col" id="c6">t-statistic</th>
|
|
<th scope="col" id="c7">Coefficient</th>
|
|
<th scope="col" id="c8">t-statistic</th>
|
|
<th scope="col" id="c9">Coefficient</th>
|
|
<th scope="col" id="c10">t-statistic</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</thead>
|
|
<tbody>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="rowgroup">Dependent variable (for calendar years)</th>
|
|
<td colspan="6"></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row"><abbr>TANF</abbr>-related <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> awards to adults in year <i>t</i></th>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr class="topPad1">
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="rowgroup" id="r1">Independent variables (for fiscal years)</th>
|
|
<td colspan="6"></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Adult <abbr>TANF</abbr> + <abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr> recipients in state <i>s</i> in year <i>t</i> (β<sub>1</sub>)</th>
|
|
<td>0.0056</td>
|
|
<td>(0.45)</td>
|
|
<td>0.0402</td>
|
|
<td>(2.21)</td>
|
|
<td>0.0268</td>
|
|
<td>(1.23)</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Adult <abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr> recipients in state <i>s</i> in year <i>t</i> (β<sub>2</sub>)</th>
|
|
<td class="nobr">-0.2202</td>
|
|
<td class="nobr">(-1.18)</td>
|
|
<td class="nobr">-0.0887</td>
|
|
<td class="nobr">(-2.57)</td>
|
|
<td class="nobr">-0.0013</td>
|
|
<td class="nobr">(-0.11)</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Adult <abbr>TANF</abbr> + <abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr> recipients in state <i>s</i> in year <i><span class="nobr">t-1</span></i> (β<sub>3</sub>)</th>
|
|
<td>0.0096</td>
|
|
<td>(0.90)</td>
|
|
<td>0.0169</td>
|
|
<td>(1.15)</td>
|
|
<td>0.0243</td>
|
|
<td>(1.23)</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Adult <abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr> recipients in state <i>s</i> in year <i><span class="nobr">t-1</span></i> (β<sub>4</sub>)</th>
|
|
<td>0.1660</td>
|
|
<td>(1.07)</td>
|
|
<td class="nobr">-0.0053</td>
|
|
<td class="nobr">(-0.58)</td>
|
|
<td class="nobr">-0.0768</td>
|
|
<td class="nobr">(-3.37)</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Predicted adult <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> awards in state <i>s</i> in year <i>t</i> (β<sub>5</sub>) <sup>a</sup></th>
|
|
<td>0.7571</td>
|
|
<td>(2.03)</td>
|
|
<td class="nobr">-0.6714</td>
|
|
<td class="nobr">(-1.16)</td>
|
|
<td class="nobr">-0.4661</td>
|
|
<td class="nobr">(-0.94)</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Constant (β<sub>0</sub>)</th>
|
|
<td>148.6092</td>
|
|
<td>(3.23)</td>
|
|
<td>39.7327</td>
|
|
<td>(0.70)</td>
|
|
<td class="nobr">-3.8766</td>
|
|
<td class="nobr">(-0.08)</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row" id="r2" headers="r1 c1">Observations</th>
|
|
<td class="center" colspan="2" headers="r1 r2 c2">51</td>
|
|
<td class="center" colspan="2" headers="r1 r2 c3">51</td>
|
|
<td class="center" colspan="2" headers="r1 r2 c4">51</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">R<sup>2</sup></th>
|
|
<td>0.9345</td>
|
|
<td></td>
|
|
<td>0.9551</td>
|
|
<td></td>
|
|
<td>0.9613</td>
|
|
<td></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">(β<sub>1</sub> + β<sub>3</sub>)</th>
|
|
<td>0.0152</td>
|
|
<td>(2.32)</td>
|
|
<td>0.0571</td>
|
|
<td>(4.03)</td>
|
|
<td>0.0511</td>
|
|
<td>(4.80)</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Mean prediction ratio (<i>p</i>)</th>
|
|
<td>0.0189</td>
|
|
<td></td>
|
|
<td>0.0192</td>
|
|
<td></td>
|
|
<td>0.0195</td>
|
|
<td></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">(β<sub>1</sub> + β<sub>3</sub> + β5 * <i>p</i>)</th>
|
|
<td>0.0295</td>
|
|
<td></td>
|
|
<td>0.0442</td>
|
|
<td></td>
|
|
<td>0.0420</td>
|
|
<td></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">(β<sub>2</sub> + β<sub>4</sub>)</th>
|
|
<td class="nobr">-0.0542</td>
|
|
<td class="nobr">(-1.63)</td>
|
|
<td class="nobr">-0.0941</td>
|
|
<td class="nobr">(-3.22)</td>
|
|
<td class="nobr">-0.0780</td>
|
|
<td class="nobr">(-4.42)</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tbody>
|
|
<tfoot>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="firstNote" colspan="7">SOURCES: Authors' calculations using data provided by the Social Security Administration and the Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Office of Family Assistance.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="note" colspan="7">NOTE: . . . = not applicable.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="lastNote" colspan="7">a. Based on <abbr class="spell">AFDC</abbr> experience. See text.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tfoot>
|
|
</table>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<div class="table" id="tableA2">
|
|
<table>
|
|
<caption><span class="tableNumber">Table <span class="nobr">A-2</span>. </span>Regressions for <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> awards to children, 2001–2003</caption>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:15em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="2" style="width:6em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="2" style="width:6em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="2" style="width:6em"></colgroup>
|
|
<thead>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stubHeading" rowspan="2" scope="colgroup" id="c1">Variable</th>
|
|
<th class="spanner" colspan="2" scope="colgroup" id="c2">2001</th>
|
|
<th class="spanner" colspan="2" scope="colgroup" id="c3">2002</th>
|
|
<th class="spanner" colspan="2" scope="colgroup" id="c4">2003</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th scope="col" id="c5">Coefficient</th>
|
|
<th scope="col" id="c6">t-statistic</th>
|
|
<th scope="col" id="c7">Coefficient</th>
|
|
<th scope="col" id="c8">t-statistic</th>
|
|
<th scope="col" id="c9">Coefficient</th>
|
|
<th scope="col" id="c10">t-statistic</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</thead>
|
|
<tbody>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="rowgroup">Dependent variable (for calendar years)</th>
|
|
<td colspan="6"></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row"><abbr>TANF</abbr>-related <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> awards to children in year <i>t</i></th>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
<td>. . .</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr class="topPad1">
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="rowgroup" id="r1">Independent variables (for fiscal years)</th>
|
|
<td colspan="6"></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Child <abbr>TANF</abbr> + <abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr> recipients in state <i>s</i> in year <i>t</i> (β<sub>1</sub>)</th>
|
|
<td class="nobr">-0.0048</td>
|
|
<td class="nobr">(-0.64)</td>
|
|
<td class="nobr">-0.0050</td>
|
|
<td class="nobr">(-1.25)</td>
|
|
<td class="nobr">-0.0117</td>
|
|
<td class="nobr">(-1.19)</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Child <abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr> recipients in state <i>s</i> in year <i>t</i> (β<sub>2</sub>)</th>
|
|
<td class="nobr">-0.0275</td>
|
|
<td class="nobr">(-0.77)</td>
|
|
<td class="nobr">-0.0355</td>
|
|
<td class="nobr">(-3.86)</td>
|
|
<td>0.0501</td>
|
|
<td>(1.42)</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Child <abbr>TANF</abbr> + <abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr> recipients in state <i>s</i> in year <i><span class="nobr">t-1</span></i> (β<sub>3</sub>)</th>
|
|
<td>0.0072</td>
|
|
<td>(0.93)</td>
|
|
<td>0.0175</td>
|
|
<td>(4.52)</td>
|
|
<td>0.0231</td>
|
|
<td>(2.89)</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Child <abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr> recipients in state <i>s</i> in year <i><span class="nobr">t-1</span></i> (β<sub>4</sub>)</th>
|
|
<td>0.0209</td>
|
|
<td>(0.60)</td>
|
|
<td>-0.0250</td>
|
|
<td>(-2.89)</td>
|
|
<td>-0.1053</td>
|
|
<td>(-1.97)</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Predicted child <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> awards in state <i>s</i> in year <i>t</i> (β<sub>5</sub>) <sup>a</sup></th>
|
|
<td>0.7498</td>
|
|
<td>(3.37)</td>
|
|
<td>0.3219</td>
|
|
<td>(1.32)</td>
|
|
<td>0.5152</td>
|
|
<td>(1.38)</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Constant (β<sub>0</sub>)</th>
|
|
<td>136.8863</td>
|
|
<td>(2.16)</td>
|
|
<td>-3.9546</td>
|
|
<td>(-0.08)</td>
|
|
<td>-40.7828</td>
|
|
<td>(-0.71)</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row" id="r2" headers="r1 c1">Observations</th>
|
|
<td class="center" colspan="2" headers="r1 r2 c2">51</td>
|
|
<td class="center" colspan="2" headers="r1 r2 c3">51</td>
|
|
<td class="center" colspan="2" headers="r1 r2 c4">51</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">R<sup>2</sup></th>
|
|
<td>0.9150</td>
|
|
<td></td>
|
|
<td>0.9548</td>
|
|
<td></td>
|
|
<td>0.9335</td>
|
|
<td></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">(β<sub>1</sub> + β<sub>3</sub>)</th>
|
|
<td>0.0024</td>
|
|
<td>(0.98)</td>
|
|
<td>0.0125</td>
|
|
<td>(7.19)</td>
|
|
<td>0.0113</td>
|
|
<td>(2.53)</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Mean prediction ratio (<i>p</i>)</th>
|
|
<td>0.0087</td>
|
|
<td></td>
|
|
<td>0.0087</td>
|
|
<td></td>
|
|
<td>0.0087</td>
|
|
<td></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">(β<sub>1</sub> + β<sub>3</sub> + β<sub>5</sub> * <i>p</i>)</th>
|
|
<td>0.0089</td>
|
|
<td></td>
|
|
<td>0.0153</td>
|
|
<td></td>
|
|
<td>0.0158</td>
|
|
<td></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">(β<sub>2</sub> + β<sub>4</sub>)</th>
|
|
<td class="nobr">-0.0066</td>
|
|
<td class="nobr">(-0.53)</td>
|
|
<td class="nobr">-0.0605</td>
|
|
<td class="nobr">(-5.38)</td>
|
|
<td class="nobr">-0.0552</td>
|
|
<td class="nobr">(-2.82)</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tbody>
|
|
<tfoot>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="firstNote" colspan="7">SOURCES: Authors' calculations using data provided by the Social Security Administration and the Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Office of Family Assistance.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="note" colspan="7">NOTE: . . . = not applicable.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="lastNote" colspan="7">a. Based on <abbr class="spell">AFDC</abbr> experience. See text.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tfoot>
|
|
</table>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<p>These results support several inferences. First, as was reasonably anticipated, an increase in total cases raises predicted awards. This result is best simulated by assuming that current and previous years' caseloads go up; such a change affects predicted awards by the two coefficients β<sub>1</sub> + β<sub>2</sub> plus the consequence judged from past experience. This "predicted" component is β<sub>5</sub> times the prediction rate for the state (<i>p<sub>s</sub></i>). Tables <span class="nobr">A-1</span> and <span class="nobr">A-2</span> show this sum as the weighted mean value of the prediction rate. The implication is that nationwide an enduring (for at least a year) increase of 100 <abbr>TANF</abbr> cases added 2.95 adult <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> awards per year in 2001, 4.42 in 2002, and 4.20 in 2003.</p>
|
|
<p>Second, <abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr>s make a difference. For both children and adults, having recipients in <abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr>s produces a statistically significant reduction in the number of <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> awards that <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr>'s recording procedures connect to <abbr>TANF</abbr>.</p>
|
|
<p>Third, the sum of coefficients on the <abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr> caseloads for the present and preceding years exceeds in absolute size the corresponding sums for combined <abbr>TANF</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr> caseloads (including the predicted awards factor). The implication is that knowing that an adult or child is in a Separate State Program raises the likelihood of that person's receiving an <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> award over what is associated with knowing that the person receives support through <abbr>TANF</abbr>.</p>
|
|
<p>Finally, for all 3 years of data, a child's being in an <abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr> seems to count for less than it does for adults. This finding is consistent with our hypothesis that because children are not the likely targets of <abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr> initiatives, the marginal effect on predicted awards of knowing that children are in <abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr>s should be smaller in absolute magnitude than the corresponding effect for adults. Nevertheless, the consequence of enrollment in <abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr>s for predicted <abbr>TANF</abbr>-related awards is substantial for both adults and children.</p>
|
|
<p>These regressions are rather unsophisticated. In particular, we have not made any adjustment for the obvious problem of heteroscedasticity in the disturbance terms (in 2003, adult <abbr>TANF</abbr> recipients in California received 64 times as many <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> awards as did recipients in South Dakota). For reasons that are unclear, the fit of the 2001 regressions appears inferior to what is achieved for 2002 and 2003. Nevertheless, these simple models provide the basis for a rough calculation of the degree to which current awards are understated because of the <abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr> problem.</p>
|
|
<h3>The Adjustment</h3>
|
|
<p>We use the regression results to estimate for each state with an <abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr> what <abbr>TANF</abbr>-related awards would have been had all the <abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr> cases been left in <abbr>TANF</abbr>. We use the estimated coefficients for <abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr><i><sub>s,t</sub></i> and <abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr><i><sub>s,t-1</sub></i> to calculate awards missed and then add this number to awards actually reported to create an estimate of actual <abbr>TANF</abbr>-related awards for each state with an <abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr>. These totals are then combined with reported awards for states without <abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr>s to produce an estimate of <abbr>TANF</abbr>-related awards nationally in the absence of <abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr>s. The difference between this prediction and actual reported <abbr>TANF</abbr>-linked <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> awards is our estimate of the undercount. These results are summarized in Table <span class="nobr">A-3</span>. The message of the regressions is that by 2003 states' use of <abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr>s led to an understatement of <abbr>TANF</abbr>-related <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> awards of 26 percent for adults and 24 percent for children.</p>
|
|
<div class="table" id="tableA3">
|
|
<table>
|
|
<caption><span class="tableNumber">Table A-3. </span>Adjusting TANF-associated SSI awards for SSP undercount, calendar years 2001–2003</caption>
|
|
<colgroup span="1" style="width:15em"></colgroup>
|
|
<colgroup span="3" style="width:5em"></colgroup>
|
|
<thead>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stubHeading" scope="col"> </th>
|
|
<th scope="col">2001</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">2002</th>
|
|
<th scope="col">2003</th>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</thead>
|
|
<tbody>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="rowgroup">Adults</th>
|
|
<td colspan="3"></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row"><abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr>-adjusted estimate</th>
|
|
<td>53,764</td>
|
|
<td>67,805</td>
|
|
<td>60,733</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Awards with Type F income</th>
|
|
<td>49,320</td>
|
|
<td>49,330</td>
|
|
<td>45,110</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Undercount (percentage of estimate)</th>
|
|
<td>8.3</td>
|
|
<td>27.2</td>
|
|
<td>25.7</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr class="topPad1">
|
|
<th class="stub0" scope="rowgroup">Children</th>
|
|
<td colspan="3"></td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row"><abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr>-adjusted estimate</th>
|
|
<td>46,753</td>
|
|
<td>63,589</td>
|
|
<td>63,244</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Awards with Type F income</th>
|
|
<td>45,950</td>
|
|
<td>47,610</td>
|
|
<td>48,050</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<th class="stub1" scope="row">Undercount (percentage of estimate)</th>
|
|
<td>1.7</td>
|
|
<td>25.1</td>
|
|
<td>24.0</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tbody>
|
|
<tfoot>
|
|
<tr>
|
|
<td class="onlyNote" colspan="4">SOURCE: Authors' calculations. See text.</td>
|
|
</tr>
|
|
</tfoot>
|
|
</table>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<p>Table 5 in the body of this article combines these estimates with the preadjustment data in Table 3. The <abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr> adjustment makes a significant difference. As reported there, we estimate that failure to account for <abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr>s produces an undercount of approximately 6.3 percentage points in the proportion of child <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> awardees coming from <abbr>TANF</abbr> households and of 2.5 percentage points in the number of adults over the calendar year 2001–2003 period.</p>
|
|
<div id="notes">
|
|
<h2>Notes</h2>
|
|
<p> <a href="#mt1" id="mn1">1</a>. These counts come from, and calculations are based on, unpublished data from the Urban Institute's Welfare Rules Database. Data are for July of each year. See Rowe (2004).</p>
|
|
<p> <a href="#mt2" id="mn2">2</a>. In general the food stamp benefit goes down by $0.30 for each additional $1 in unearned income, including income from <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>, so including the food stamp adjustment would lower the gain reported in Table 1 by 30 percent. However, the presence of a disabled person in the food stamp household leads to more generous treatment of housing costs and out-of-pocket medical expenses in determining the food stamp entitlement, and as a result the loss may be less. In California the food stamp benefit is "cashed out" for <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> recipients and included in the <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> benefit; doing this removes the child or adult from what is considered the food stamp household and can actually increase the family's food stamp entitlement (Arnold and Marinacci 2003, 19). Since including food stamps might change the level of the gain from the <abbr>TANF</abbr>-to-<abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> transfer but not the trend, we concentrate on cash benefits.</p>
|
|
<p> <a href="#mt3" id="mn3">3</a>. Unpublished <abbr>TANF</abbr> data for fiscal year 2003 were provided by the Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Office of Family Assistance.</p>
|
|
<p> <a href="#mt4" id="mn4">4</a>. The Urban Institute's Welfare Rules Database (see Rowe 2005) makes no distinction between program features delivered through <abbr class="spell">SSP</abbr>s (in particular, benefits to two-parent families) and those delivered formally through <abbr>TANF</abbr>. The database is funded by the Office of Family Assistance and is the agency's repository for historical information on characteristics of state <abbr>TANF</abbr> programs.</p>
|
|
<p> <a href="#mt5" id="mn5">5</a>. A few states fail to report <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> receipt correctly; our computations are adjusted for this shortcoming. Both the analysis of the data on <abbr>TANF</abbr> characteristics reported in this section and the analysis of <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> awards reported in the next section are based on case samples. Consequently, the numbers reported are subject to sampling variation. Because of the size of the underlying data sets, this variation is small, and no results are reported that are statistically unreliable.</p>
|
|
<p> <a href="#mt6" id="mn6">6</a>. Note that the lags are slightly different from what the notation in equation 1 implies. We measure awards on a calendar year basis and caseloads on a fiscal year basis.</p>
|
|
</div>
|
|
<div id="references">
|
|
<h2>References</h2>
|
|
<p>Arnold, Autumn, and Amy Marinacci. 2003. <i>Cash-Out in California: A History of Help and Harm</i>. San Francisco: California Food Policy Advocates.</p>
|
|
<p>[<abbr class="spell">DHHS</abbr>] Department of Health and Human Services. Administration for Children and Families. Office of Family Assistance. 1999. <i><abbr>TANF</abbr> Data Reports</i>.</p>
|
|
<p>———. 2004. <i>Characteristics and Financial Circumstances of <abbr>TANF</abbr> Recipients, October 2002–September 2003</i>. Washington, DC: <abbr class="spell">DHHS</abbr>.</p>
|
|
<p>Garrett, Bowen, and Sherry Glied. 2000. "Does State <abbr class="spell">AFDC</abbr> Generosity Affect Child <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> Participation?" <i>Journal of Policy Analysis and Management</i> <span class="nobr">19(2)</span>, Spring: 275–296.</p>
|
|
<p>Gibbs, Deborah, Jennifer Kasten, Anupa Bir, Sonja Hoover, Dean Duncan, and Janet B. Mitchell. 2004. <a href="https://aspe.hhs.gov/reports/children-temporary-assistance-needy-families-tanf-child-only-cases-relative-caregivers-0"><i>Children in Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (<abbr>TANF</abbr>) Child-Only Cases with Relative Caregivers</i></a>. Report prepared for the Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation, Department of Health and Human Services. Chapel Hill, <abbr title="North Carolina">NC</abbr>: <abbr class="spell">RTI</abbr> International.</p>
|
|
<p>[<abbr class="spell">GAO</abbr>] Government Accountability Office. 2004. <i><abbr>TANF</abbr> and <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>: Opportunities Exist to Help People with Impairments Become More Self-Sufficient</i>. Report <span class="nobr"><abbr class="spell">GAO</abbr>-04-878</span>. Washington, DC: <abbr class="spell">GAO</abbr>.</p>
|
|
<p>Kaplan, Jan. 2000. "Screening and Assessing <abbr>TANF</abbr> Clients for <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> Eligibility." <i>Resources for Welfare Decision</i> <span class="nobr">4(7)</span>, Welfare Information Network.</p>
|
|
<p>Kubik, Jeffrey D. 2003. "Fiscal Federalism and Welfare Policy: The Role of States in the Growth of Child <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>." <i>National Tax Journal</i> <span class="nobr">56(1)</span>, Part 1: 61–79.</p>
|
|
<p>Lee, S., G. Oh, H. Hartman, and B. Gault. 2004. <i>The Impact of Disabilities on Mothers' Work Participation: Examining Differences Between Single and Married Mothers</i>. Washington, DC: Institute for Women's Policy Research.</p>
|
|
<p>Nadel, Mark, Steve Wamhoff, and Michael Wiseman. 2003/2004. "Disability, Welfare Reform, and <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>." <i>Social Security Bulletin</i> <span class="nobr">65(3)</span>: 14–30.</p>
|
|
<p>Rowe, Gretchen. 2005. <i>The Welfare Rules Databook: State <abbr>TANF</abbr> Policies as of July 2003</i>. With Jeffrey Versteeg. Washington, DC: Urban Institute.</p>
|
|
<p>Schmidt, Lucie, and Purvi Sevak. 2004. "<abbr class="spell">AFDC</abbr>, <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr>, and Aggressive Welfare Reform." <i>Journal of Human Resources</i> <span class="nobr">39(3)</span>: 792–812.</p>
|
|
<p>[<abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr>] Social Security Administration. 2004a. <i>Annual Statistical Supplement to the Social Security Bulletin, 2003</i>. Washington, DC: <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr>.</p>
|
|
<p>———. 2004b. <i>SSI Annual Statistical Report, 2003</i>. Washington, DC: <abbr class="spell">SSA</abbr>.</p>
|
|
<p>Stapleton, David C., David C. Wittenburg, Michael E. Fishman, and Gina A. Livermore. 2001/2002. "Transitions from <abbr>AFDC</abbr> to <abbr class="spell">SSI</abbr> before Welfare Reform." <i>Social Security Bulletin</i> <span class="nobr">64(1)</span>: 84–114.</p>
|
|
<p>Wiseman, Michael. 2004. "The High Performance Bonus." Paper prepared for the 26<sup>th</sup> Annual Research Conference, Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management, Atlanta, <abbr title="Georgia">GA</abbr>, October <span class="nobr">28–30</span>, 2004.</p>
|
|
<p>Ziliak, James P. 2004. "Relative Prices and Substitution Across Wage, Welfare, and Disability Income." Discussion Paper <span class="nobr">2004-03</span>, University of Kentucky Center for Poverty Research, Lexington, <abbr title="Kentucky">KY</abbr>.</p>
|
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