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<table summary="Document navigation links" border="0" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0">
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<td width="60%"><h2 class="pTitle">2003 OASDI Trustees Report</h2></td>
<td><a accesskey="c" href="trTOC.html"><img id="LongDescNotReq1" src="images/toc.gif" border="0" alt="Contents" /></a></td>
<td><a accesskey="n" href="I_intro.html"><img id="LongDescNotReq3" src="images/next.gif" border="0" alt="Next" /></a></td>
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<hr />
<a name="wp680717"> </a><p class="pTOC1">
<a href="I_intro.html#wp999543"> I. INTRODUCTION</a>
</p>
<a name="wp680719"> </a><p class="pTOC1">
<a href="II_highlights.html#wp76455"> II. OVERVIEW</a>
</p>
<a name="wp680721"> </a><p class="pTOC2">
<a href="II_highlights.html#wp76460"> A. HIGHLIGHTS</a>
</p>
<a name="wp680723"> </a><p class="pTOC2">
<a href="II_cyoper.html#wp94983"> B. TRUST FUND FINANCIAL OPERATIONS IN 2002</a>
</p>
<a name="wp680725"> </a><p class="pTOC2">
<a href="II_assump.html#wp94905"> C. ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT THE FUTURE</a>
</p>
<a name="wp680727"> </a><p class="pTOC2">
<a href="II_project.html#wp105057"> D. PROJECTIONS OF FUTURE FINANCIAL STATUS</a>
</p>
<a name="wp680729"> </a><p class="pTOC2">
<a href="II_conclu.html#wp86802"> E. CONCLUSION</a>
</p>
<a name="wp680731"> </a><p class="pTOC1">
<a href="III_cyoper.html#wp89773"> III. FINANCIAL OPERATIONS OF THE TRUST FUNDS AND LEGISLATIVE CHANGES IN THE LAST YEAR</a>
</p>
<a name="wp680733"> </a><p class="pTOC2">
<a href="III_cyoper.html#wp84778"> A. OPERATIONS OF THE OLD-AGE AND SURVIVORS INSURANCE (OASI) AND DISABILITY INSURANCE (DI) TRUST FUNDS, IN CALENDAR YEAR 2002</a>
</p>
<a name="wp680735"> </a><p class="pTOC3">
<a href="III_cyoper.html#wp84548"> 1. OASI Trust Fund</a>
</p>
<a name="wp680737"> </a><p class="pTOC3">
<a href="III_cyoper.html#wp105731"> 2. DI Trust Fund</a>
</p>
<a name="wp680739"> </a><p class="pTOC3">
<a href="III_cyoper.html#wp82228"> 3. OASI and DI Trust Funds, Combined</a>
</p>
<a name="wp680741"> </a><p class="pTOC2">
<a href="III_amdmts.html#wp90567"> B. SOCIAL SECURITY AMENDMENTS SINCE THE 2002 REPORT</a>
</p>
<a name="wp680743"> </a><p class="pTOC1">
<a href="IV_SRest.html#wp77658"> IV. ACTUARIAL ESTIMATES</a>
</p>
<a name="wp680745"> </a><p class="pTOC2">
<a href="IV_SRest.html#wp90333"> A. SHORT-RANGE ESTIMATES</a>
</p>
<a name="wp680747"> </a><p class="pTOC3">
<a href="IV_SRest.html#wp90386"> 1. Operations of the OASI Trust Fund</a>
</p>
<a name="wp680749"> </a><p class="pTOC3">
<a href="IV_SRest.html#wp178551"> 2. Operations of the DI Trust Fund</a>
</p>
<a name="wp680751"> </a><p class="pTOC3">
<a href="IV_SRest.html#wp126084"> 3. Operations of the Combined OASI and DI Trust Funds</a>
</p>
<a name="wp680753"> </a><p class="pTOC3">
<a href="IV_SRest.html#wp169569"> 4. Factors Underlying Changes in 10-Year Trust Fund Ratio Estimates From the 2002 Report</a>
</p>
<a name="wp680755"> </a><p class="pTOC2">
<a href="IV_LRest.html#wp239829"> B. LONG-RANGE ESTIMATES</a>
</p>
<a name="wp680757"> </a><p class="pTOC3">
<a href="IV_LRest.html#wp154978"> 1. Annual Income Rates, Cost Rates, and Balances</a>
</p>
<a name="wp680759"> </a><p class="pTOC3">
<a href="IV_LRest.html#wp222190"> 2. Comparison of Workers to Beneficiaries</a>
</p>
<a name="wp680761"> </a><p class="pTOC3">
<a href="IV_LRest.html#wp179686"> 3. Trust Fund Ratios</a>
</p>
<a name="wp680763"> </a><p class="pTOC3">
<a href="IV_LRest.html#wp165611"> 4. Summarized Income Rates, Cost Rates, and Balances</a>
</p>
<a name="wp680765"> </a><p class="pTOC3">
<a href="IV_LRest.html#wp254423"> 5. Additional Measures of OASDI Unfunded Obligations</a>
</p>
<a name="wp680771"> </a><p class="pTOC3">
<a href="IV_LRest.html#wp244978"> 6. Test of Long-Range Close Actuarial Balance</a>
</p>
<a name="wp680773"> </a><p class="pTOC3">
<a href="IV_LRest.html#wp148835"> 7. Income and Cost Rates by Component</a>
</p>
<a name="wp680775"> </a><p class="pTOC3">
<a href="IV_LRest.html#wp154458"> 8. Reasons for Change in Actuarial Balance From Last Report</a>
</p>
<a name="wp680777"> </a><p class="pTOC1">
<a href="V_demographic.html#wp79479"> V. ASSUMPTIONS AND METHODS UNDERLYING ACTUARIAL ESTIMATES</a>
</p>
<a name="wp680779"> </a><p class="pTOC2">
<a href="V_demographic.html#wp79489"> A. DEMOGRAPHIC ASSUMPTIONS AND METHODS</a>
</p>
<a name="wp680781"> </a><p class="pTOC3">
<a href="V_demographic.html#wp79491"> 1. Fertility Assumptions</a>
</p>
<a name="wp680783"> </a><p class="pTOC3">
<a href="V_demographic.html#wp155199"> 2. Mortality Assumptions</a>
</p>
<a name="wp680785"> </a><p class="pTOC3">
<a href="V_demographic.html#wp79519"> 3. Immigration Assumptions</a>
</p>
<a name="wp680787"> </a><p class="pTOC3">
<a href="V_demographic.html#wp81231"> 4. Total Population Estimates</a>
</p>
<a name="wp680789"> </a><p class="pTOC3">
<a href="V_demographic.html#wp90100"> 5. Life Expectancy Estimates</a>
</p>
<a name="wp680791"> </a><p class="pTOC2">
<a href="V_economic.html#wp170227"> B. ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS AND METHODS</a>
</p>
<a name="wp680793"> </a><p class="pTOC3">
<a href="V_economic.html#wp131307"> 1. Productivity Assumptions</a>
</p>
<a name="wp680795"> </a><p class="pTOC3">
<a href="V_economic.html#wp131314"> 2. Price Inflation Assumptions</a>
</p>
<a name="wp680797"> </a><p class="pTOC3">
<a href="V_economic.html#wp131323"> 3. Average Earnings Assumptions</a>
</p>
<a name="wp680799"> </a><p class="pTOC3">
<a href="V_economic.html#wp133682"> 4. Assumed Real-Wage Differentials</a>
</p>
<a name="wp680801"> </a><p class="pTOC3">
<a href="V_economic.html#wp160921"> 5. Labor Force and Unemployment Projections</a>
</p>
<a name="wp680803"> </a><p class="pTOC3">
<a href="V_economic.html#wp168800"> 6. Gross Domestic Product Projections</a>
</p>
<a name="wp680805"> </a><p class="pTOC3">
<a href="V_economic.html#wp168822"> 7. Interest Rate Projections</a>
</p>
<a name="wp680807"> </a><p class="pTOC2">
<a href="V_programatic.html#wp147902"> C. PROGRAM-SPECIFIC ASSUMPTIONS AND METHODS</a>
</p>
<a name="wp680809"> </a><p class="pTOC3">
<a href="V_programatic.html#wp96145"> 1. Automatically Adjusted Program Amounts</a>
</p>
<a name="wp680811"> </a><p class="pTOC3">
<a href="V_programatic.html#wp121228"> 2. Covered Employment</a>
</p>
<a name="wp680813"> </a><p class="pTOC3">
<a href="V_programatic.html#wp121260"> 3. Taxable Payroll and Payroll Tax Revenue</a>
</p>
<a name="wp680815"> </a><p class="pTOC3">
<a href="V_programatic.html#wp87218"> 4. Insured Population</a>
</p>
<a name="wp680817"> </a><p class="pTOC3">
<a href="V_programatic.html#wp87223"> 5. Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Beneficiaries</a>
</p>
<a name="wp680819"> </a><p class="pTOC3">
<a href="V_programatic.html#wp89099"> 6. Disability Insurance Beneficiaries</a>
</p>
<a name="wp680821"> </a><p class="pTOC3">
<a href="V_programatic.html#wp90083"> 7. Average Benefits</a>
</p>
<a name="wp680823"> </a><p class="pTOC3">
<a href="V_programatic.html#wp90086"> 8. Benefit Payments</a>
</p>
<a name="wp680825"> </a><p class="pTOC3">
<a href="V_programatic.html#wp90089"> 9. Administrative Expenses</a>
</p>
<a name="wp680827"> </a><p class="pTOC3">
<a href="V_programatic.html#wp90091"> 10. Railroad Retirement Financial Interchange</a>
</p>
<a name="wp680829"> </a><p class="pTOC3">
<a href="V_programatic.html#wp90094"> 11. Benefits to Uninsured Persons</a>
</p>
<a name="wp680831"> </a><p class="pTOC3">
<a href="V_programatic.html#wp146824"> 12. Military-Service Transfers</a>
</p>
<a name="wp680833"> </a><p class="pTOC3">
<a href="V_programatic.html#wp129121"> 13. Income From Taxation of Benefits</a>
</p>
<a name="wp680835"> </a><p class="pTOC1">
<a href="VI_cyoper_history.html#wp77658"> VI. APPENDICES</a>
</p>
<a name="wp680837"> </a><p class="pTOC2">
<a href="VI_cyoper_history.html#wp90303"> A. HISTORY OF OASI AND DI TRUST FUND OPERATIONS</a>
</p>
<a name="wp680839"> </a><p class="pTOC2">
<a href="VI_LRact_bal.html#wp102806"> B. HISTORY OF ACTUARIAL BALANCE ESTIMATES</a>
</p>
<a name="wp680841"> </a><p class="pTOC2">
<a href="VI_SRfyproj.html#wp185082"> C. FISCAL YEAR HISTORICAL DATA AND PROJECTIONS THROUGH 2012</a>
</p>
<a name="wp680843"> </a><p class="pTOC2">
<a href="VI_LRsensitivity.html#wp100512"> D. LONG-RANGE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS</a>
</p>
<a name="wp680845"> </a><p class="pTOC3">
<a href="VI_LRsensitivity.html#wp100885"> 1. Total Fertility Rate</a>
</p>
<a name="wp680847"> </a><p class="pTOC3">
<a href="VI_LRsensitivity.html#wp92688"> 2. Death Rates</a>
</p>
<a name="wp680849"> </a><p class="pTOC3">
<a href="VI_LRsensitivity.html#wp92900"> 3. Net Immigration</a>
</p>
<a name="wp680851"> </a><p class="pTOC3">
<a href="VI_LRsensitivity.html#wp93098"> 4. Real-Wage Differential</a>
</p>
<a name="wp680853"> </a><p class="pTOC3">
<a href="VI_LRsensitivity.html#wp93311"> 5. Consumer Price Index</a>
</p>
<a name="wp680855"> </a><p class="pTOC3">
<a href="VI_LRsensitivity.html#wp93516"> 6. Real Interest Rate</a>
</p>
<a name="wp680857"> </a><p class="pTOC3">
<a href="VI_LRsensitivity.html#wp93713"> 7. Disability Incidence Rates</a>
</p>
<a name="wp680859"> </a><p class="pTOC3">
<a href="VI_LRsensitivity.html#wp93910"> 8. Disability Termination Rates</a>
</p>
<a name="wp680861"> </a><p class="pTOC2">
<a href="VI_stochastic.html#wp94108"> E. STOCHASTIC PROJECTIONS</a>
</p>
<p class="pTOC3">
<a href="VI_stochastic.html#wp100956"> 1. Background</a>
</p>
<p class="pTOC3">
<a href="VI_stochastic.html#wp100960"> 2. Methodology</a>
</p>
<p class="pTOC3">
<a href="VI_stochastic.html#wp100970"> 3. Results</a>
</p>
<p class="pTOC2">
<a href="VI_OASDHI_payroll.html#wp105439"> F. ESTIMATES FOR OASDI AND HI, SEPARATE AND COMBINED</a>
</p>
<p class="pTOC3">
<a href="VI_OASDHI_payroll.html#wp101353"> 1. Estimates as a Percentage of Taxable Payroll</a>
</p>
<p class="pTOC3">
<a href="VI_OASDHI_GDP.html#wp113389"> 2. Estimates as a Percentage of Gross Domestic Product</a>
</p>
<p class="pTOC3">
<a href="VI_OASDHI_dollars.html#wp116339"> 3. Estimates in Dollars</a>
</p>
<p class="pTOC2">
<a href="VI_OASIforDI.html#wp97986"> G. ANALYSIS OF BENEFIT DISBURSEMENTS FROM THE OASI TRUST FUND WITH RESPECT TO DISABLED BENEFICIARIES</a>
</p>
<p class="pTOC2">
<a href="VI_glossary.html#wp1042403"> H. GLOSSARY</a>
</p>
<p class="pTOC1">
<a href="trActOpn.html#wp162632">STATEMENT OF ACTUARIAL OPINION</a>
</p>
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