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<div id="captcha-error-message" class="usa-input-error-message captcha-validation-message" role="alert"></div>
<div class="action-panel-actions">
<button class="action-panel-submit"
type="submit"
data-loading-label="Sending..."
data-ga-category="save_share"
data-ga-action="email"
data-ga-label="send">
Send email
</button>
<button class="action-panel-cancel"
aria-label="Close 'Email citations' panel"
ref="linksrc=close_email_panel"
aria-controls="email-action-panel"
aria-expanded="false"
data-ga-category="save_share"
data-ga-action="email"
data-ga-label="cancel">
Cancel
</button>
</div>
<input type="hidden" name="email-search-details" value="" />
<input type="hidden" name="email-search-details-hash" value="0e42663a6c3bd85498fcb88798998fed7bfdc45d457db35281e41afe13cc0524" />
</form>
</div>
</div>
<div id="collections-action-panel"
class="collections-action-panel action-panel in-progress-dots-panel"
aria-hidden="true"
data-collections-open-panel-enabled="false"
data-collections-open-panel-url-hash="#open-collections-panel">
<div class="inner-wrap">
<h3 class="action-panel-heading">
Add to Collections
</h3>
<form id="collections-action-panel-form"
class="collections-action-panel-form action-panel-content action-form action-panel-smaller-selectors"
data-existing-collections-url="/list-existing-collections/"
data-add-to-existing-collection-url="/add-to-existing-collection/"
data-create-and-add-to-new-collection-url="/create-and-add-to-new-collection/"
data-get-article-ids-by-search-url="/get-article-ids-by-search/"
data-myncbi-max-collection-name-length="100"
data-add-to-collection-max-amount="1000"
data-collections-root-url="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/myncbi/collections/">
<input type="hidden" name="csrfmiddlewaretoken" value="A0gQ8zKSoRrp1nEIb8bMRmoMQjRxEaT0RN0VLpdeYseTVOKyOrOOluUqonzJxLrk">
<div class="choice-group" role="radiogroup">
<ul class="radio-group-items">
<li>
<input type="radio"
id="collections-action-panel-new"
class="collections-new"
name="collections"
value="new"
data-ga-category="save_share"
data-ga-action="collections"
data-ga-label="collections_radio_new">
<label for="collections-action-panel-new">Create a new collection</label>
</li>
<li>
<input type="radio"
id="collections-action-panel-existing"
class="collections-existing"
name="collections"
value="existing"
checked="true"
data-ga-category="save_share"
data-ga-action="collections"
data-ga-label="collections_radio_existing">
<label for="collections-action-panel-existing">Add to an existing collection</label>
</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div class="controls-wrapper">
<div class="action-panel-control-wrap new-collections-controls">
<label for="collections-action-panel-add-to-new" class="action-panel-label required-field-asterisk">
Name your collection:
</label>
<input
type="text"
name="add-to-new-collection"
id="collections-action-panel-add-to-new"
class="collections-action-add-to-new"
pattern="[^&quot;&amp;=&lt;&gt;\/]*" title="The following characters are not allowed in the Name field: &quot;&amp;=&lt;&gt;/"
maxlength="100"
data-ga-category="save_share"
data-ga-action="create_collection"
data-ga-label="non_favorties_collection">
<div class="collections-new-name-too-long usa-input-error-message selection-validation-message">
Name must be less than 100 characters
</div>
</div>
<div class="action-panel-control-wrap existing-collections-controls">
<label for="collections-action-panel-add-to-existing" class="action-panel-label">
Choose a collection:
</label>
<select id="collections-action-panel-add-to-existing"
class="action-panel-selector collections-action-add-to-existing"
data-ga-category="save_share"
data-ga-action="select_collection"
data-ga-label="($('#collections-action-add-to-existing').val() === 'Favorites') ? 'Favorites' : 'non_favorites_collection'">
</select>
<div class="collections-retry-load-on-error usa-input-error-message selection-validation-message">
Unable to load your collection due to an error<br>
<a href="#">Please try again</a>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="action-panel-actions">
<button class="action-panel-submit"
type="submit"
data-loading-label="Adding..."
data-pinger-ignore
data-ga-category="save_share"
data-ga-action="collections"
data-ga-label="add">
Add
</button>
<button class="action-panel-cancel"
aria-label="Close 'Add to Collections' panel"
ref="linksrc=close_collections_panel"
aria-controls="collections-action-panel"
aria-expanded="false"
data-ga-category="save_share"
data-ga-action="collections"
data-ga-label="cancel">
Cancel
</button>
</div>
</form>
</div>
</div>
<div id="bibliography-action-panel"
class="bibliography-action-panel action-panel in-progress-dots-panel"
aria-hidden="true"
data-bibliography-open-panel-enabled="false"
data-bibliography-open-panel-url-hash="#open-bibliography-panel">
<div class="inner-wrap">
<h3 class="action-panel-heading">
Add to My Bibliography
</h3>
<form id="bibliography-action-panel-form"
class="bibliography-action-panel-form action-panel-content action-form action-panel-smaller-selectors"
data-add-to-bibliography-max-amount="100"
data-add-to-bibliography-batch-size="10"
data-bibliography-delegates-url="/list-bibliography-delegates/"
data-add-to-bibliography-url="/add-to-bibliography/"
data-get-article-ids-by-search-url="/get-article-ids-by-search/"
data-mybib-root-url="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/myncbi/collections/mybibliography/">
<input type="hidden" name="csrfmiddlewaretoken" value="A0gQ8zKSoRrp1nEIb8bMRmoMQjRxEaT0RN0VLpdeYseTVOKyOrOOluUqonzJxLrk">
<div class="action-panel-control-wrap bibliographies-controls">
<div class="choice-group">
<ul class="bibliographies-action-add radio-group-items">
<li>
<input name="bibliography" id="my-bibliography" class="my-bibliography" type="radio" checked/>
<label for="my-bibliography">My Bibliography</label>
</li>
</ul>
</div>
</div>
<div class="bibliographies-retry-load-on-error usa-input-error-message selection-validation-message">
Unable to load your delegates due to an error<br>
<a href="#">Please try again</a>
</div>
<div class="action-panel-actions">
<button class="action-panel-submit"
type="submit"
data-loading-label="Adding..."
data-pinger-ignore>
Add
</button>
<button class="action-panel-cancel"
aria-label="Close 'Add to bibliography' panel"
ref="linksrc=close_bibliography_panel"
aria-controls="bibliography-action-panel"
aria-expanded="false"
data-ga-category="save_share"
data-ga-action="mybib"
data-ga-label="cancel">
Cancel
</button>
</div>
</form>
</div>
</div>
<div id="saved-search-action-panel" class="saved-search-action-panel action-panel " aria-hidden="true"
data-saved-search-open-panel-enabled="false"
data-saved-search-open-panel-url-hash="#open-saved-search-panel">
<div class="inner-wrap">
<h2 class="action-panel-heading">
Your saved search
</h2>
<form id="saved-search-action-panel-form"
class="saved-search-action-panel-form action-panel-content action-form"
data-create-saved-search-url="/create-saved-search/"
data-try-search-terms-url="/try-search-term/"
data-saved-search-root-url="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/myncbi/searches/">
<input type="hidden" name="csrfmiddlewaretoken" value="A0gQ8zKSoRrp1nEIb8bMRmoMQjRxEaT0RN0VLpdeYseTVOKyOrOOluUqonzJxLrk">
<div class="action-panel-control-wrap">
<label for="saved-search-name" class="action-panel-label saved-search-name-label required-field-asterisk">
Name of saved search:
</label>
<input maxlength="200"
type="text"
name="saved-search-name"
id="saved-search-name"
class="saved-search-name"
value=""
required
pattern="[^&quot;&amp;=&lt;&gt;\/]*" title="The following characters are not allowed in the Name field: &quot;&amp;=&lt;&gt;/">
</div>
<div class="action-panel-control-wrap">
<label for="saved-search-term" class="action-panel-label required-field-asterisk">
Search terms:
</label>
<textarea name="saved-search-term" id="saved-search-term" class="saved-search-term" required></textarea>
</div>
<div class="test-search-term-wrap">
<a href="#" class="try-search-term">Test search terms</a>
</div>
<div class="choice-group action-panel-extra-margin-top">
<span class="action-panel-label" id="fieldset-label">
Would you like email updates of new search results?
</span>
<fieldset id="saved-search-alert" aria-describedby="fieldset-label">
<legend class="usa-sr-only">Saved Search Alert Radio Buttons</legend>
<ul class="radio-group-items">
<li>
<input type="radio" id="saved-search-alert-yes" class="saved-search-alert-yes" name="saved-search-alert" value="yes" checked>
<label for="saved-search-alert-yes" class="action-panel-label">Yes</label>
</li>
<li>
<input aria-label="No radio input" type="radio" id="saved-search-alert-no" class="saved-search-alert-no" name="saved-search-alert" value="no">
<label for="saved-search-alert-no" class="action-panel-label">No</label>
</li>
</ul>
</fieldset>
</div>
<div class="alert-schedule-wrap">
<div class="action-panel-control-wrap">
<label class="action-panel-label">
Email:
</label>
<span aria-label="Email address" id="saved-search-email" class="action-panel-label"><span class="action-panel-label-bold"></span> (<a class="myncbi-account-settings" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/account/settings/">change</a>)</span>
</div>
<div class="action-panel-control-wrap action-panel-extra-margin-top">
<label for="saved-search-frequency" class="action-panel-label">
Frequency:
</label>
<select id="saved-search-frequency" class="no-border-panel-selector saved-search-frequency">
<option value="monthly">Monthly</option>
<option value="weekly">Weekly</option>
<option value="daily">Daily</option>
</select>
</div>
<div class="action-panel-control-wrap saved-search-monthly-additional">
<label for="saved-search-monthly-on-day" class="action-panel-label">
Which day?
</label>
<select id="saved-search-monthly-on-day" class="no-border-panel-selector">
<option value="Sunday">The first Sunday</option>
<option value="Monday">The first Monday</option>
<option value="Tuesday">The first Tuesday</option>
<option value="Wednesday">The first Wednesday</option>
<option value="Thursday">The first Thursday</option>
<option value="Friday">The first Friday</option>
<option value="Saturday">The first Saturday</option>
<option value="day">The first day</option>
<option value="weekday">The first weekday</option>
</select>
</div>
<div class="action-panel-control-wrap saved-search-weekly-additional">
<label for="saved-search-weekly-on-day" class="action-panel-label">
Which day?
</label>
<select id="saved-search-weekly-on-day" class="no-border-panel-selector saved-search-weekly-on-day">
<option value="Sunday">Sunday</option>
<option value="Monday">Monday</option>
<option value="Tuesday">Tuesday</option>
<option value="Wednesday">Wednesday</option>
<option value="Thursday">Thursday</option>
<option value="Friday">Friday</option>
<option value="Saturday">Saturday</option>
</select>
</div>
<div class="action-panel-control-wrap">
<label for="saved-search-report" class="action-panel-label">
Report format:
</label>
<select id="saved-search-report" class="no-border-panel-selector saved-search-report">
<option value="DocSum">Summary</option>
<option value="DocSumText">Summary (text)</option>
<option value="Abstract">Abstract</option>
<option value="AbstractText">Abstract (text)</option>
<option value="MEDLINE">PubMed</option>
</select>
</div>
<div class="action-panel-control-wrap">
<label for="saved-search-amount" class="action-panel-label">
Send at most:
</label>
<select id="saved-search-amount" class="no-border-panel-selector saved-search-amount">
<option value="1">1 item</option>
<option value="5" selected>5 items</option>
<option value="10">10 items</option>
<option value="20">20 items</option>
<option value="50">50 items</option>
<option value="100">100 items</option>
<option value="200">200 items</option>
</select>
</div>
<div>
<input type="checkbox" id="saved-search-send-if-no-result" class="saved-search-send-if-no-result" name="saved-search-send-if-no-result">
<label for="saved-search-send-if-no-result" class="action-panel-label smaller-checkbox">
Send even when there aren't any new results
</label>
</div>
<div class="action-panel-control-wrap option-text-in-email-wrap">
<label for="saved-search-email-text" class="action-panel-label">
Optional text in email:
</label>
<textarea name="saved-search-email-text"
id="saved-search-email-text"
class="saved-search-email-text"></textarea>
</div>
</div>
<div class="action-panel-actions">
<button class="action-panel-submit"
type="submit"
data-loading-label="Saving..."
data-ga-category="save_share"
data-ga-action="alert"
data-ga-label="save">
Save
</button>
<button class="action-panel-cancel"
aria-label="Close 'Your saved search' panel"
ref="linksrc=close_saved_search_panel"
aria-controls="saved-search-action-panel"
aria-expanded="false"
data-ga-category="save_share"
data-ga-action="alert"
data-ga-label="cancel">
Cancel
</button>
</div>
</form>
</div>
</div>
<div id="citation-manager-action-panel" class="citation-manager-action-panel action-panel" aria-hidden="true">
<div class="inner-wrap">
<h2 class="action-panel-heading">
Create a file for external citation management software
</h2>
<form id="citation-manager-action-panel-form"
class="action-panel-content action-form"
action="/results-export-ids/"
data-by-search-action="/results-export-search-data/"
data-by-ids-action="/results-export-ids/"
method="post"
data-by-search-method="post"
data-by-ids-method="post">
<input type="hidden" name="csrfmiddlewaretoken" value="A0gQ8zKSoRrp1nEIb8bMRmoMQjRxEaT0RN0VLpdeYseTVOKyOrOOluUqonzJxLrk">
<input name="results-format" type="hidden" value="pubmed"/>
<div class="action-panel-actions">
<button class="action-panel-submit"
type="submit"
data-loading-label="Sending..."
data-ga-category="save_share"
data-ga-action="citation_manager"
data-ga-label="save">
Create file
</button>
<button class="action-panel-cancel"
aria-label="Close 'Send citations to citation manager' panel"
ref="linksrc=close_citation_manager_panel"
aria-controls="citation-manager-action-panel"
aria-expanded="false"
data-ga-category="save_share"
data-ga-action="citation_manager"
data-ga-label="cancel">
Cancel
</button>
</div>
</form>
</div>
</div>
<div id="rss-action-panel" class="rss-action-panel action-panel " aria-hidden="true">
<div class="inner-wrap">
<h2 class="action-panel-heading">
Your RSS Feed
</h2>
<form id="rss-action-panel-form"
class="rss-action-panel-form action-panel-content action-form"
data-create-rss-feed-url="/create-rss-feed-url/"
data-search-form-term-value="">
<input type="hidden" name="csrfmiddlewaretoken" value="A0gQ8zKSoRrp1nEIb8bMRmoMQjRxEaT0RN0VLpdeYseTVOKyOrOOluUqonzJxLrk">
<div class="action-panel-control-wrap">
<label for="rss-name" class="action-panel-label required-field-asterisk">
Name of RSS Feed:
</label>
<input maxlength="200"
placeholder="Name"
type="text"
name="rss-name"
id="rss-name"
class="rss-name"
value=''
required
pattern="[^&quot;&amp;=&lt;&gt;\/]*" title="The following characters are not allowed in the Name field: &quot;&amp;=&lt;&gt;/">
</div>
<div class="rss-limit-wrap">
<div class="action-panel-control-wrap action-panel-extra-margin-top">
<label for="rss-limit" class="action-panel-label">
Number of items displayed:
</label>
<select id="rss-limit" class="no-border-panel-selector rss-limit">
<option value="5">5</option>
<option value="10">10</option>
<option value="15" selected="selected">15</option>
<option value="20">20</option>
<option value="50">50</option>
<option value="100">100</option>
</select>
</div>
</div>
<div class="action-panel-actions">
<button class="action-panel-submit"
type="submit"
data-loading-label="Creating..."
data-ga-category="save_share"
data-ga-action="alert"
data-ga-label="save">
Create RSS
</button>
<button class="action-panel-cancel"
aria-label="Close 'Your RSS' panel"
ref="linksrc=close_rss_panel"
aria-controls="rss-action-panel"
aria-expanded="false"
data-ga-category="save_share"
data-ga-action="alert"
data-ga-label="cancel">
Cancel
</button>
</div>
<div class="action-panel-control-wrap rss-link-copy-wrap">
<label for="rss-link" class="usa-sr-only">RSS Link</label>
<input placeholder="Your RSS Feed Link" type="text" name="rss-link" id="rss-link" class="rss-link" title="RSS Link">
<button
type="button"
disabled
class="rss-link-copy-button disabled"
data-ga-category="save_share"
data-ga-action="rss"
data-ga-label="copy">
Copy
</button>
</div>
</form>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="article-page" id="article-page" data-article-pmid="33775387">
<aside class="page-sidebar">
<div class="inner-wrap">
<div class="full-text-links">
<div class="full-view">
<h3 class="title">
Full text links
</h3>
<div class="full-text-links-list">
<a class="link-item
dialog-focus"
href="https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0895-4356(21)00013-5"
target="_blank"
rel="noopener"
ref="linksrc=fulltextorjournal_fulltext&amp;is_pmc=False&amp;PrId=3048&amp;itool=Abstract-def&amp;log$=linkouticon&amp;uid=33775387&amp;db=pubmed&amp;nlmid=8801383"
title="See full text options at Elsevier Science"
data-ga-category="full_text"
data-ga-action="Elsevier Science"
data-ga-label="33775387"
><img src="https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/corehtml/query/egifs/https:--linkinghub.elsevier.com-ihub-images-PubMedLink.gif" alt="Elsevier Science full text link"><span class="text">
Elsevier Science
</span></a>
</div>
</div>
<div class="short-view">
<a href="#" class="full-text-links-button full-text-links-dialog-trigger">
Full text links
</a>
</div>
</div>
<div class="actions-buttons sidebar"><h3 class="title">Actions</h3><div class="inner-wrap"><button class="citation-button citation-dialog-trigger"
aria-label="Open dialog with citation text in different styles"
data-ga-category="save_share"
data-ga-action="cite"
data-ga-label="open"
data-all-citations-url="/33775387/citations/"
data-citation-style="nlm"
data-pubmed-format-link="/33775387/export/"><span class="button-label">Cite</span></button><link type="text/css" href="ncbi-overlay-block/src/overlay-block.css"><div class="collections-button-container" data-article-id="33775387" data-article-db="pubmed"><button class="collections-button collections-dialog-trigger"
aria-label="Save article in MyNCBI collections."
data-ga-category="collections_button"
data-ga-action="click"
data-ga-label="collections_button"
data-collections-open-dialog-enabled="false"
data-collections-open-dialog-url="https://account.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/?back_url=https%3A%2F%2Fpubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov%2F33775387%2F%23open-collections-dialog"
data-in-collections="false"><span class="button-label">Collections</span></button><div class="overlay" role="dialog"><div id="collections-action-dialog"
class="dialog collections-dialog"
aria-hidden="true"><div class="title">Add to Collections</div><div class="collections-action-panel action-panel"><form id="collections-action-dialog-form"
class="collections-action-panel-form action-panel-content action-form action-panel-smaller-selectors"
data-existing-collections-url="/list-existing-collections/"
data-add-to-existing-collection-url="/add-to-existing-collection/"
data-create-and-add-to-new-collection-url="/create-and-add-to-new-collection/"
data-myncbi-max-collection-name-length="100"
data-collections-root-url="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/myncbi/collections/"><input type="hidden" name="csrfmiddlewaretoken" value="A0gQ8zKSoRrp1nEIb8bMRmoMQjRxEaT0RN0VLpdeYseTVOKyOrOOluUqonzJxLrk"><div class="choice-group" role="radiogroup"><ul class="radio-group-items"><li><input type="radio"
id="collections-action-dialog-new"
class="collections-new"
name="collections"
value="new"
data-ga-category="collections_button"
data-ga-action="click"
data-ga-label="collections_radio_new"><label for="collections-action-dialog-new">Create a new collection</label></li><li><input type="radio"
id="collections-action-dialog-existing"
class="collections-existing"
name="collections"
value="existing"
checked="true"
data-ga-category="collections_button"
data-ga-action="click"
data-ga-label="collections_radio_existing"><label for="collections-action-dialog-existing">Add to an existing collection</label></li></ul></div><div class="controls-wrapper"><div class="action-panel-control-wrap new-collections-controls"><label for="collections-action-dialog-add-to-new" class="action-panel-label required-field-asterisk">
Name your collection:
</label><input
type="text"
name="add-to-new-collection"
id="collections-action-dialog-add-to-new"
class="collections-action-add-to-new"
pattern="[^&quot;&amp;=&lt;&gt;\/]*" title="The following characters are not allowed in the Name field: &quot;&amp;=&lt;&gt;/"
maxlength="100"
data-ga-category="collections_button"
data-ga-action="create_collection"
data-ga-label="non_favorties_collection"><div class="collections-new-name-too-long usa-input-error-message selection-validation-message">
Name must be less than 100 characters
</div></div><div class="action-panel-control-wrap existing-collections-controls"><label for="collections-action-dialog-add-to-existing" class="action-panel-label">
Choose a collection:
</label><select id="collections-action-dialog-add-to-existing"
class="action-panel-selector collections-action-add-to-existing"
data-ga-category="collections_button"
data-ga-action="select_collection"
data-ga-label="($('.collections-action-add-to-existing').val() === 'Favorites') ? 'Favorites' : 'non_favorites_collection'"></select><div class="collections-retry-load-on-error usa-input-error-message selection-validation-message">
Unable to load your collection due to an error<br><a href="#">Please try again</a></div></div></div><div class="action-panel-actions"><button class="action-panel-submit"
type="submit"
data-loading-label="Adding..."
data-pinger-ignore
data-ga-category="collections_button"
data-ga-action="click"
data-ga-label="add">
Add
</button><button class="action-panel-cancel"
aria-label="Close 'Add to Collections' panel"
ref="linksrc=close_collections_panel"
aria-controls="collections-action-panel"
aria-expanded="false"
data-ga-category="collections_button"
data-ga-action="click"
data-ga-label="cancel">
Cancel
</button></div></form></div></div></div></div><button class="more-actions-button more-actions-dialog-trigger"
title="Open dialog with more actions to take"
ref="linksrc=more_actions_btn"></button><div class="display-options" data-format-key="format"
data-default-format-value="abstract"
data-current-format-value="abstract" role="region"><button
class="trigger usa-button"
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Clinical prediction models play an increasingly important role in contemporary clinical care, by informing healthcare professionals, patients and their relatives about outcome risks, with the aim to facilitate (shared) medical decision making and improve health outcomes. Diagnostic prediction models aim to calculate an individual's risk that a disease is already present, whilst prognostic prediction models aim to calculate the risk of particular heath states occurring in the future. This article serves as a primer for diagnostic and prognostic clinical prediction models, by discussing the basic terminology, some of the inherent challenges, and the need for validation of predictive performance and the evaluation of impact of these models in clinical care.
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Keywords:
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Diagnostic; Model impact; Model performance; Prediction models; Prognostic; Reporting guidelines; Validation.
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