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</div>
<div id="captcha-error-message" class="usa-input-error-message captcha-validation-message" role="alert"></div>
<div class="action-panel-actions">
<button class="action-panel-submit"
type="submit"
data-loading-label="Sending..."
data-ga-category="save_share"
data-ga-action="email"
data-ga-label="send">
Send email
</button>
<button class="action-panel-cancel"
aria-label="Close 'Email citations' panel"
ref="linksrc=close_email_panel"
aria-controls="email-action-panel"
aria-expanded="false"
data-ga-category="save_share"
data-ga-action="email"
data-ga-label="cancel">
Cancel
</button>
</div>
<input type="hidden" name="email-search-details" value="" />
<input type="hidden" name="email-search-details-hash" value="0e42663a6c3bd85498fcb88798998fed7bfdc45d457db35281e41afe13cc0524" />
</form>
</div>
</div>
<div id="collections-action-panel"
class="collections-action-panel action-panel in-progress-dots-panel"
aria-hidden="true"
data-collections-open-panel-enabled="false"
data-collections-open-panel-url-hash="#open-collections-panel">
<div class="inner-wrap">
<h3 class="action-panel-heading">
Add to Collections
</h3>
<form id="collections-action-panel-form"
class="collections-action-panel-form action-panel-content action-form action-panel-smaller-selectors"
data-existing-collections-url="/list-existing-collections/"
data-add-to-existing-collection-url="/add-to-existing-collection/"
data-create-and-add-to-new-collection-url="/create-and-add-to-new-collection/"
data-get-article-ids-by-search-url="/get-article-ids-by-search/"
data-myncbi-max-collection-name-length="100"
data-add-to-collection-max-amount="1000"
data-collections-root-url="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/myncbi/collections/">
<input type="hidden" name="csrfmiddlewaretoken" value="TaIh7NoVf8Sh88wtTyWFtsZuUl1jlYu6aXsmKDRhPJFL2zCjwRzHXAv8spJvez2q">
<div class="choice-group" role="radiogroup">
<ul class="radio-group-items">
<li>
<input type="radio"
id="collections-action-panel-new"
class="collections-new"
name="collections"
value="new"
data-ga-category="save_share"
data-ga-action="collections"
data-ga-label="collections_radio_new">
<label for="collections-action-panel-new">Create a new collection</label>
</li>
<li>
<input type="radio"
id="collections-action-panel-existing"
class="collections-existing"
name="collections"
value="existing"
checked="true"
data-ga-category="save_share"
data-ga-action="collections"
data-ga-label="collections_radio_existing">
<label for="collections-action-panel-existing">Add to an existing collection</label>
</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div class="controls-wrapper">
<div class="action-panel-control-wrap new-collections-controls">
<label for="collections-action-panel-add-to-new" class="action-panel-label required-field-asterisk">
Name your collection:
</label>
<input
type="text"
name="add-to-new-collection"
id="collections-action-panel-add-to-new"
class="collections-action-add-to-new"
pattern="[^&quot;&amp;=&lt;&gt;\/]*" title="The following characters are not allowed in the Name field: &quot;&amp;=&lt;&gt;/"
maxlength="100"
data-ga-category="save_share"
data-ga-action="create_collection"
data-ga-label="non_favorties_collection">
<div class="collections-new-name-too-long usa-input-error-message selection-validation-message">
Name must be less than 100 characters
</div>
</div>
<div class="action-panel-control-wrap existing-collections-controls">
<label for="collections-action-panel-add-to-existing" class="action-panel-label">
Choose a collection:
</label>
<select id="collections-action-panel-add-to-existing"
class="action-panel-selector collections-action-add-to-existing"
data-ga-category="save_share"
data-ga-action="select_collection"
data-ga-label="($('#collections-action-add-to-existing').val() === 'Favorites') ? 'Favorites' : 'non_favorites_collection'">
</select>
<div class="collections-retry-load-on-error usa-input-error-message selection-validation-message">
Unable to load your collection due to an error<br>
<a href="#">Please try again</a>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="action-panel-actions">
<button class="action-panel-submit"
type="submit"
data-loading-label="Adding..."
data-pinger-ignore
data-ga-category="save_share"
data-ga-action="collections"
data-ga-label="add">
Add
</button>
<button class="action-panel-cancel"
aria-label="Close 'Add to Collections' panel"
ref="linksrc=close_collections_panel"
aria-controls="collections-action-panel"
aria-expanded="false"
data-ga-category="save_share"
data-ga-action="collections"
data-ga-label="cancel">
Cancel
</button>
</div>
</form>
</div>
</div>
<div id="bibliography-action-panel"
class="bibliography-action-panel action-panel in-progress-dots-panel"
aria-hidden="true"
data-bibliography-open-panel-enabled="false"
data-bibliography-open-panel-url-hash="#open-bibliography-panel">
<div class="inner-wrap">
<h3 class="action-panel-heading">
Add to My Bibliography
</h3>
<form id="bibliography-action-panel-form"
class="bibliography-action-panel-form action-panel-content action-form action-panel-smaller-selectors"
data-add-to-bibliography-max-amount="100"
data-add-to-bibliography-batch-size="10"
data-bibliography-delegates-url="/list-bibliography-delegates/"
data-add-to-bibliography-url="/add-to-bibliography/"
data-get-article-ids-by-search-url="/get-article-ids-by-search/"
data-mybib-root-url="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/myncbi/collections/mybibliography/">
<input type="hidden" name="csrfmiddlewaretoken" value="TaIh7NoVf8Sh88wtTyWFtsZuUl1jlYu6aXsmKDRhPJFL2zCjwRzHXAv8spJvez2q">
<div class="action-panel-control-wrap bibliographies-controls">
<div class="choice-group">
<ul class="bibliographies-action-add radio-group-items">
<li>
<input name="bibliography" id="my-bibliography" class="my-bibliography" type="radio" checked/>
<label for="my-bibliography">My Bibliography</label>
</li>
</ul>
</div>
</div>
<div class="bibliographies-retry-load-on-error usa-input-error-message selection-validation-message">
Unable to load your delegates due to an error<br>
<a href="#">Please try again</a>
</div>
<div class="action-panel-actions">
<button class="action-panel-submit"
type="submit"
data-loading-label="Adding..."
data-pinger-ignore>
Add
</button>
<button class="action-panel-cancel"
aria-label="Close 'Add to bibliography' panel"
ref="linksrc=close_bibliography_panel"
aria-controls="bibliography-action-panel"
aria-expanded="false"
data-ga-category="save_share"
data-ga-action="mybib"
data-ga-label="cancel">
Cancel
</button>
</div>
</form>
</div>
</div>
<div id="saved-search-action-panel" class="saved-search-action-panel action-panel " aria-hidden="true"
data-saved-search-open-panel-enabled="false"
data-saved-search-open-panel-url-hash="#open-saved-search-panel">
<div class="inner-wrap">
<h2 class="action-panel-heading">
Your saved search
</h2>
<form id="saved-search-action-panel-form"
class="saved-search-action-panel-form action-panel-content action-form"
data-create-saved-search-url="/create-saved-search/"
data-try-search-terms-url="/try-search-term/"
data-saved-search-root-url="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/myncbi/searches/">
<input type="hidden" name="csrfmiddlewaretoken" value="TaIh7NoVf8Sh88wtTyWFtsZuUl1jlYu6aXsmKDRhPJFL2zCjwRzHXAv8spJvez2q">
<div class="action-panel-control-wrap">
<label for="saved-search-name" class="action-panel-label saved-search-name-label required-field-asterisk">
Name of saved search:
</label>
<input maxlength="200"
type="text"
name="saved-search-name"
id="saved-search-name"
class="saved-search-name"
value=""
required
pattern="[^&quot;&amp;=&lt;&gt;\/]*" title="The following characters are not allowed in the Name field: &quot;&amp;=&lt;&gt;/">
</div>
<div class="action-panel-control-wrap">
<label for="saved-search-term" class="action-panel-label required-field-asterisk">
Search terms:
</label>
<textarea name="saved-search-term" id="saved-search-term" class="saved-search-term" required></textarea>
</div>
<div class="test-search-term-wrap">
<a href="#" class="try-search-term">Test search terms</a>
</div>
<div class="choice-group action-panel-extra-margin-top">
<span class="action-panel-label" id="fieldset-label">
Would you like email updates of new search results?
</span>
<fieldset id="saved-search-alert" aria-describedby="fieldset-label">
<legend class="usa-sr-only">Saved Search Alert Radio Buttons</legend>
<ul class="radio-group-items">
<li>
<input type="radio" id="saved-search-alert-yes" class="saved-search-alert-yes" name="saved-search-alert" value="yes" checked>
<label for="saved-search-alert-yes" class="action-panel-label">Yes</label>
</li>
<li>
<input aria-label="No radio input" type="radio" id="saved-search-alert-no" class="saved-search-alert-no" name="saved-search-alert" value="no">
<label for="saved-search-alert-no" class="action-panel-label">No</label>
</li>
</ul>
</fieldset>
</div>
<div class="alert-schedule-wrap">
<div class="action-panel-control-wrap">
<label class="action-panel-label">
Email:
</label>
<span aria-label="Email address" id="saved-search-email" class="action-panel-label"><span class="action-panel-label-bold"></span> (<a class="myncbi-account-settings" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/account/settings/">change</a>)</span>
</div>
<div class="action-panel-control-wrap action-panel-extra-margin-top">
<label for="saved-search-frequency" class="action-panel-label">
Frequency:
</label>
<select id="saved-search-frequency" class="no-border-panel-selector saved-search-frequency">
<option value="monthly">Monthly</option>
<option value="weekly">Weekly</option>
<option value="daily">Daily</option>
</select>
</div>
<div class="action-panel-control-wrap saved-search-monthly-additional">
<label for="saved-search-monthly-on-day" class="action-panel-label">
Which day?
</label>
<select id="saved-search-monthly-on-day" class="no-border-panel-selector">
<option value="Sunday">The first Sunday</option>
<option value="Monday">The first Monday</option>
<option value="Tuesday">The first Tuesday</option>
<option value="Wednesday">The first Wednesday</option>
<option value="Thursday">The first Thursday</option>
<option value="Friday">The first Friday</option>
<option value="Saturday">The first Saturday</option>
<option value="day">The first day</option>
<option value="weekday">The first weekday</option>
</select>
</div>
<div class="action-panel-control-wrap saved-search-weekly-additional">
<label for="saved-search-weekly-on-day" class="action-panel-label">
Which day?
</label>
<select id="saved-search-weekly-on-day" class="no-border-panel-selector saved-search-weekly-on-day">
<option value="Sunday">Sunday</option>
<option value="Monday">Monday</option>
<option value="Tuesday">Tuesday</option>
<option value="Wednesday">Wednesday</option>
<option value="Thursday">Thursday</option>
<option value="Friday">Friday</option>
<option value="Saturday">Saturday</option>
</select>
</div>
<div class="action-panel-control-wrap">
<label for="saved-search-report" class="action-panel-label">
Report format:
</label>
<select id="saved-search-report" class="no-border-panel-selector saved-search-report">
<option value="DocSum">Summary</option>
<option value="DocSumText">Summary (text)</option>
<option value="Abstract">Abstract</option>
<option value="AbstractText">Abstract (text)</option>
<option value="MEDLINE">PubMed</option>
</select>
</div>
<div class="action-panel-control-wrap">
<label for="saved-search-amount" class="action-panel-label">
Send at most:
</label>
<select id="saved-search-amount" class="no-border-panel-selector saved-search-amount">
<option value="1">1 item</option>
<option value="5" selected>5 items</option>
<option value="10">10 items</option>
<option value="20">20 items</option>
<option value="50">50 items</option>
<option value="100">100 items</option>
<option value="200">200 items</option>
</select>
</div>
<div>
<input type="checkbox" id="saved-search-send-if-no-result" class="saved-search-send-if-no-result" name="saved-search-send-if-no-result">
<label for="saved-search-send-if-no-result" class="action-panel-label smaller-checkbox">
Send even when there aren't any new results
</label>
</div>
<div class="action-panel-control-wrap option-text-in-email-wrap">
<label for="saved-search-email-text" class="action-panel-label">
Optional text in email:
</label>
<textarea name="saved-search-email-text"
id="saved-search-email-text"
class="saved-search-email-text"></textarea>
</div>
</div>
<div class="action-panel-actions">
<button class="action-panel-submit"
type="submit"
data-loading-label="Saving..."
data-ga-category="save_share"
data-ga-action="alert"
data-ga-label="save">
Save
</button>
<button class="action-panel-cancel"
aria-label="Close 'Your saved search' panel"
ref="linksrc=close_saved_search_panel"
aria-controls="saved-search-action-panel"
aria-expanded="false"
data-ga-category="save_share"
data-ga-action="alert"
data-ga-label="cancel">
Cancel
</button>
</div>
</form>
</div>
</div>
<div id="citation-manager-action-panel" class="citation-manager-action-panel action-panel" aria-hidden="true">
<div class="inner-wrap">
<h2 class="action-panel-heading">
Create a file for external citation management software
</h2>
<form id="citation-manager-action-panel-form"
class="action-panel-content action-form"
action="/results-export-ids/"
data-by-search-action="/results-export-search-data/"
data-by-ids-action="/results-export-ids/"
method="post"
data-by-search-method="post"
data-by-ids-method="post">
<input type="hidden" name="csrfmiddlewaretoken" value="TaIh7NoVf8Sh88wtTyWFtsZuUl1jlYu6aXsmKDRhPJFL2zCjwRzHXAv8spJvez2q">
<input name="results-format" type="hidden" value="pubmed"/>
<div class="action-panel-actions">
<button class="action-panel-submit"
type="submit"
data-loading-label="Sending..."
data-ga-category="save_share"
data-ga-action="citation_manager"
data-ga-label="save">
Create file
</button>
<button class="action-panel-cancel"
aria-label="Close 'Send citations to citation manager' panel"
ref="linksrc=close_citation_manager_panel"
aria-controls="citation-manager-action-panel"
aria-expanded="false"
data-ga-category="save_share"
data-ga-action="citation_manager"
data-ga-label="cancel">
Cancel
</button>
</div>
</form>
</div>
</div>
<div id="rss-action-panel" class="rss-action-panel action-panel " aria-hidden="true">
<div class="inner-wrap">
<h2 class="action-panel-heading">
Your RSS Feed
</h2>
<form id="rss-action-panel-form"
class="rss-action-panel-form action-panel-content action-form"
data-create-rss-feed-url="/create-rss-feed-url/"
data-search-form-term-value="">
<input type="hidden" name="csrfmiddlewaretoken" value="TaIh7NoVf8Sh88wtTyWFtsZuUl1jlYu6aXsmKDRhPJFL2zCjwRzHXAv8spJvez2q">
<div class="action-panel-control-wrap">
<label for="rss-name" class="action-panel-label required-field-asterisk">
Name of RSS Feed:
</label>
<input maxlength="200"
placeholder="Name"
type="text"
name="rss-name"
id="rss-name"
class="rss-name"
value=''
required
pattern="[^&quot;&amp;=&lt;&gt;\/]*" title="The following characters are not allowed in the Name field: &quot;&amp;=&lt;&gt;/">
</div>
<div class="rss-limit-wrap">
<div class="action-panel-control-wrap action-panel-extra-margin-top">
<label for="rss-limit" class="action-panel-label">
Number of items displayed:
</label>
<select id="rss-limit" class="no-border-panel-selector rss-limit">
<option value="5">5</option>
<option value="10">10</option>
<option value="15" selected="selected">15</option>
<option value="20">20</option>
<option value="50">50</option>
<option value="100">100</option>
</select>
</div>
</div>
<div class="action-panel-actions">
<button class="action-panel-submit"
type="submit"
data-loading-label="Creating..."
data-ga-category="save_share"
data-ga-action="alert"
data-ga-label="save">
Create RSS
</button>
<button class="action-panel-cancel"
aria-label="Close 'Your RSS' panel"
ref="linksrc=close_rss_panel"
aria-controls="rss-action-panel"
aria-expanded="false"
data-ga-category="save_share"
data-ga-action="alert"
data-ga-label="cancel">
Cancel
</button>
</div>
<div class="action-panel-control-wrap rss-link-copy-wrap">
<label for="rss-link" class="usa-sr-only">RSS Link</label>
<input placeholder="Your RSS Feed Link" type="text" name="rss-link" id="rss-link" class="rss-link" title="RSS Link">
<button
type="button"
disabled
class="rss-link-copy-button disabled"
data-ga-category="save_share"
data-ga-action="rss"
data-ga-label="copy">
Copy
</button>
</div>
</form>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="article-page" id="article-page" data-article-pmid="25441703">
<aside class="page-sidebar">
<div class="inner-wrap">
<div class="full-text-links">
<div class="full-view">
<h3 class="title">
Full text links
</h3>
<div class="full-text-links-list">
<a class="link-item
dialog-focus"
href="https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0895-4356(14)00353-9"
target="_blank"
rel="noopener"
ref="linksrc=fulltextorjournal_fulltext&amp;is_pmc=False&amp;PrId=3048&amp;itool=Abstract-def&amp;log$=linkouticon&amp;uid=25441703&amp;db=pubmed&amp;nlmid=8801383"
title="See full text options at Elsevier Science"
data-ga-category="full_text"
data-ga-action="Elsevier Science"
data-ga-label="25441703"
><img src="https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/corehtml/query/egifs/https:--linkinghub.elsevier.com-ihub-images-PubMedLink.gif" alt="Elsevier Science full text link"><span class="text">
Elsevier Science
</span></a>
</div>
</div>
<div class="short-view">
<a href="#" class="full-text-links-button full-text-links-dialog-trigger">
Full text links
</a>
</div>
</div>
<div class="actions-buttons sidebar"><h3 class="title">Actions</h3><div class="inner-wrap"><button class="citation-button citation-dialog-trigger"
aria-label="Open dialog with citation text in different styles"
data-ga-category="save_share"
data-ga-action="cite"
data-ga-label="open"
data-all-citations-url="/25441703/citations/"
data-citation-style="nlm"
data-pubmed-format-link="/25441703/export/"><span class="button-label">Cite</span></button><link type="text/css" href="ncbi-overlay-block/src/overlay-block.css"><div class="collections-button-container" data-article-id="25441703" data-article-db="pubmed"><button class="collections-button collections-dialog-trigger"
aria-label="Save article in MyNCBI collections."
data-ga-category="collections_button"
data-ga-action="click"
data-ga-label="collections_button"
data-collections-open-dialog-enabled="false"
data-collections-open-dialog-url="https://account.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/?back_url=https%3A%2F%2Fpubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov%2F25441703%2F%23open-collections-dialog"
data-in-collections="false"><span class="button-label">Collections</span></button><div class="overlay" role="dialog"><div id="collections-action-dialog"
class="dialog collections-dialog"
aria-hidden="true"><div class="title">Add to Collections</div><div class="collections-action-panel action-panel"><form id="collections-action-dialog-form"
class="collections-action-panel-form action-panel-content action-form action-panel-smaller-selectors"
data-existing-collections-url="/list-existing-collections/"
data-add-to-existing-collection-url="/add-to-existing-collection/"
data-create-and-add-to-new-collection-url="/create-and-add-to-new-collection/"
data-myncbi-max-collection-name-length="100"
data-collections-root-url="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/myncbi/collections/"><input type="hidden" name="csrfmiddlewaretoken" value="TaIh7NoVf8Sh88wtTyWFtsZuUl1jlYu6aXsmKDRhPJFL2zCjwRzHXAv8spJvez2q"><div class="choice-group" role="radiogroup"><ul class="radio-group-items"><li><input type="radio"
id="collections-action-dialog-new"
class="collections-new"
name="collections"
value="new"
data-ga-category="collections_button"
data-ga-action="click"
data-ga-label="collections_radio_new"><label for="collections-action-dialog-new">Create a new collection</label></li><li><input type="radio"
id="collections-action-dialog-existing"
class="collections-existing"
name="collections"
value="existing"
checked="true"
data-ga-category="collections_button"
data-ga-action="click"
data-ga-label="collections_radio_existing"><label for="collections-action-dialog-existing">Add to an existing collection</label></li></ul></div><div class="controls-wrapper"><div class="action-panel-control-wrap new-collections-controls"><label for="collections-action-dialog-add-to-new" class="action-panel-label required-field-asterisk">
Name your collection:
</label><input
type="text"
name="add-to-new-collection"
id="collections-action-dialog-add-to-new"
class="collections-action-add-to-new"
pattern="[^&quot;&amp;=&lt;&gt;\/]*" title="The following characters are not allowed in the Name field: &quot;&amp;=&lt;&gt;/"
maxlength="100"
data-ga-category="collections_button"
data-ga-action="create_collection"
data-ga-label="non_favorties_collection"><div class="collections-new-name-too-long usa-input-error-message selection-validation-message">
Name must be less than 100 characters
</div></div><div class="action-panel-control-wrap existing-collections-controls"><label for="collections-action-dialog-add-to-existing" class="action-panel-label">
Choose a collection:
</label><select id="collections-action-dialog-add-to-existing"
class="action-panel-selector collections-action-add-to-existing"
data-ga-category="collections_button"
data-ga-action="select_collection"
data-ga-label="($('.collections-action-add-to-existing').val() === 'Favorites') ? 'Favorites' : 'non_favorites_collection'"></select><div class="collections-retry-load-on-error usa-input-error-message selection-validation-message">
Unable to load your collection due to an error<br><a href="#">Please try again</a></div></div></div><div class="action-panel-actions"><button class="action-panel-submit"
type="submit"
data-loading-label="Adding..."
data-pinger-ignore
data-ga-category="collections_button"
data-ga-action="click"
data-ga-label="add">
Add
</button><button class="action-panel-cancel"
aria-label="Close 'Add to Collections' panel"
ref="linksrc=close_collections_panel"
aria-controls="collections-action-panel"
aria-expanded="false"
data-ga-category="collections_button"
data-ga-action="click"
data-ga-label="cancel">
Cancel
</button></div></form></div></div></div></div><button class="more-actions-button more-actions-dialog-trigger"
title="Open dialog with more actions to take"
ref="linksrc=more_actions_btn"></button><div class="display-options" data-format-key="format"
data-default-format-value="abstract"
data-current-format-value="abstract" role="region"><button
class="trigger usa-button"
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External validation of new risk prediction models is infrequent and reveals worse prognostic discrimination
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><sup class="key">3</sup> Channing Division of Network Medicine, Department of Medicine, Brigham and Women&#x27;s Hospital and Harvard Medical School, 181 Longwood Avenue, Boston, MA 02115, USA.</li>
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><sup class="key">4</sup> Department of Medicine, Stanford Prevention Research Center, Stanford University School of Medicine, 1265 Welch Rd, MSOB X306, Stanford, CA 94305, USA; Department of Health Research and Policy, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA 94305, USA; Department of Statistics, Stanford University School of Humanities and Sciences, Stanford, CA 94305, USA. Electronic address: jioannid@stanford.edu.</li>
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To evaluate how often newly developed risk prediction models undergo external validation and how well they perform in such validations.
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Study design and setting:
</strong>
We reviewed derivation studies of newly proposed risk models and their subsequent external validations. Study characteristics, outcome(s), and models' discriminatory performance [area under the curve, (AUC)] in derivation and validation studies were extracted. We estimated the probability of having a validation, change in discriminatory performance with more stringent external validation by overlapping or different authors compared to the derivation estimates.
</p>
<p>
<strong class="sub-title">
Results:
</strong>
We evaluated 127 new prediction models. Of those, for 32 models (25%), at least an external validation study was identified; in 22 models (17%), the validation had been done by entirely different authors. The probability of having an external validation by different authors within 5 years was 16%. AUC estimates significantly decreased during external validation vs. the derivation study [median AUC change: -0.05 (P &lt; 0.001) overall; -0.04 (P = 0.009) for validation by overlapping authors; -0.05 (P &lt; 0.001) for validation by different authors]. On external validation, AUC decreased by at least 0.03 in 19 models and never increased by at least 0.03 (P &lt; 0.001).
</p>
<p>
<strong class="sub-title">
Conclusion:
</strong>
External independent validation of predictive models in different studies is uncommon. Predictive performance may worsen substantially on external validation.
</p>
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<strong class="sub-title">
Keywords:
</strong>
Area under the receiver operating characteristics curve; Derivation study; Discrimination; External validation; Prognostic models; Risk prediction model.
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Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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Response to letter by Forike et al.: more rigorous, not less, external validation is needed.
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<span class="docsum-authors full-authors">Siontis GC, Ioannidis JP.</span>
<span class="docsum-authors short-authors">Siontis GC, et al.</span>
<span class="docsum-journal-citation full-journal-citation">J Clin Epidemiol. 2016 Jan;69:250-1. doi: 10.1016/j.jclinepi.2015.01.021. Epub 2015 Jan 31.</span>
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External validation is only needed when prediction models are worth it (Letter commenting on: J Clin Epidemiol. 2015;68:25-34).
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