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<title>Cost-effectiveness of using prognostic information to select women with breast cancer for adjuvant systemic therapy - PubMed</title>
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<label for="email-include-supplemental" class="email-include-supplemental-label">MeSH and other data</label>
</div>
<div class="form-field recaptcha ">
<div class="g-recaptcha" id="id-recaptcha" data-sitekey="6LfsWHMdAAAAAClKbtOpjQ2pMjgsGxvv7NdZW9uI"></div>
</div>
<div id="captcha-error-message" class="usa-input-error-message captcha-validation-message" role="alert"></div>
<div class="action-panel-actions">
<button class="action-panel-submit"
type="submit"
data-loading-label="Sending..."
data-ga-category="save_share"
data-ga-action="email"
data-ga-label="send">
Send email
</button>
<button class="action-panel-cancel"
aria-label="Close 'Email citations' panel"
ref="linksrc=close_email_panel"
aria-controls="email-action-panel"
aria-expanded="false"
data-ga-category="save_share"
data-ga-action="email"
data-ga-label="cancel">
Cancel
</button>
</div>
<input type="hidden" name="email-search-details" value="" />
<input type="hidden" name="email-search-details-hash" value="0e42663a6c3bd85498fcb88798998fed7bfdc45d457db35281e41afe13cc0524" />
</form>
</div>
</div>
<div id="collections-action-panel"
class="collections-action-panel action-panel in-progress-dots-panel"
aria-hidden="true"
data-collections-open-panel-enabled="false"
data-collections-open-panel-url-hash="#open-collections-panel">
<div class="inner-wrap">
<h3 class="action-panel-heading">
Add to Collections
</h3>
<form id="collections-action-panel-form"
class="collections-action-panel-form action-panel-content action-form action-panel-smaller-selectors"
data-existing-collections-url="/list-existing-collections/"
data-add-to-existing-collection-url="/add-to-existing-collection/"
data-create-and-add-to-new-collection-url="/create-and-add-to-new-collection/"
data-get-article-ids-by-search-url="/get-article-ids-by-search/"
data-myncbi-max-collection-name-length="100"
data-add-to-collection-max-amount="1000"
data-collections-root-url="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/myncbi/collections/">
<input type="hidden" name="csrfmiddlewaretoken" value="yh5vd7pWwAdw73hNJU1vgiRNpaPBokAAP4PAQXSi6b001unDmdExKqnrXexNhV8U">
<div class="choice-group" role="radiogroup">
<ul class="radio-group-items">
<li>
<input type="radio"
id="collections-action-panel-new"
class="collections-new"
name="collections"
value="new"
data-ga-category="save_share"
data-ga-action="collections"
data-ga-label="collections_radio_new">
<label for="collections-action-panel-new">Create a new collection</label>
</li>
<li>
<input type="radio"
id="collections-action-panel-existing"
class="collections-existing"
name="collections"
value="existing"
checked="true"
data-ga-category="save_share"
data-ga-action="collections"
data-ga-label="collections_radio_existing">
<label for="collections-action-panel-existing">Add to an existing collection</label>
</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div class="controls-wrapper">
<div class="action-panel-control-wrap new-collections-controls">
<label for="collections-action-panel-add-to-new" class="action-panel-label required-field-asterisk">
Name your collection:
</label>
<input
type="text"
name="add-to-new-collection"
id="collections-action-panel-add-to-new"
class="collections-action-add-to-new"
pattern="[^&quot;&amp;=&lt;&gt;\/]*" title="The following characters are not allowed in the Name field: &quot;&amp;=&lt;&gt;/"
maxlength="100"
data-ga-category="save_share"
data-ga-action="create_collection"
data-ga-label="non_favorties_collection">
<div class="collections-new-name-too-long usa-input-error-message selection-validation-message">
Name must be less than 100 characters
</div>
</div>
<div class="action-panel-control-wrap existing-collections-controls">
<label for="collections-action-panel-add-to-existing" class="action-panel-label">
Choose a collection:
</label>
<select id="collections-action-panel-add-to-existing"
class="action-panel-selector collections-action-add-to-existing"
data-ga-category="save_share"
data-ga-action="select_collection"
data-ga-label="($('#collections-action-add-to-existing').val() === 'Favorites') ? 'Favorites' : 'non_favorites_collection'">
</select>
<div class="collections-retry-load-on-error usa-input-error-message selection-validation-message">
Unable to load your collection due to an error<br>
<a href="#">Please try again</a>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="action-panel-actions">
<button class="action-panel-submit"
type="submit"
data-loading-label="Adding..."
data-pinger-ignore
data-ga-category="save_share"
data-ga-action="collections"
data-ga-label="add">
Add
</button>
<button class="action-panel-cancel"
aria-label="Close 'Add to Collections' panel"
ref="linksrc=close_collections_panel"
aria-controls="collections-action-panel"
aria-expanded="false"
data-ga-category="save_share"
data-ga-action="collections"
data-ga-label="cancel">
Cancel
</button>
</div>
</form>
</div>
</div>
<div id="bibliography-action-panel"
class="bibliography-action-panel action-panel in-progress-dots-panel"
aria-hidden="true"
data-bibliography-open-panel-enabled="false"
data-bibliography-open-panel-url-hash="#open-bibliography-panel">
<div class="inner-wrap">
<h3 class="action-panel-heading">
Add to My Bibliography
</h3>
<form id="bibliography-action-panel-form"
class="bibliography-action-panel-form action-panel-content action-form action-panel-smaller-selectors"
data-add-to-bibliography-max-amount="100"
data-add-to-bibliography-batch-size="10"
data-bibliography-delegates-url="/list-bibliography-delegates/"
data-add-to-bibliography-url="/add-to-bibliography/"
data-get-article-ids-by-search-url="/get-article-ids-by-search/"
data-mybib-root-url="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/myncbi/collections/mybibliography/">
<input type="hidden" name="csrfmiddlewaretoken" value="yh5vd7pWwAdw73hNJU1vgiRNpaPBokAAP4PAQXSi6b001unDmdExKqnrXexNhV8U">
<div class="action-panel-control-wrap bibliographies-controls">
<div class="choice-group">
<ul class="bibliographies-action-add radio-group-items">
<li>
<input name="bibliography" id="my-bibliography" class="my-bibliography" type="radio" checked/>
<label for="my-bibliography">My Bibliography</label>
</li>
</ul>
</div>
</div>
<div class="bibliographies-retry-load-on-error usa-input-error-message selection-validation-message">
Unable to load your delegates due to an error<br>
<a href="#">Please try again</a>
</div>
<div class="action-panel-actions">
<button class="action-panel-submit"
type="submit"
data-loading-label="Adding..."
data-pinger-ignore>
Add
</button>
<button class="action-panel-cancel"
aria-label="Close 'Add to bibliography' panel"
ref="linksrc=close_bibliography_panel"
aria-controls="bibliography-action-panel"
aria-expanded="false"
data-ga-category="save_share"
data-ga-action="mybib"
data-ga-label="cancel">
Cancel
</button>
</div>
</form>
</div>
</div>
<div id="saved-search-action-panel" class="saved-search-action-panel action-panel " aria-hidden="true"
data-saved-search-open-panel-enabled="false"
data-saved-search-open-panel-url-hash="#open-saved-search-panel">
<div class="inner-wrap">
<h2 class="action-panel-heading">
Your saved search
</h2>
<form id="saved-search-action-panel-form"
class="saved-search-action-panel-form action-panel-content action-form"
data-create-saved-search-url="/create-saved-search/"
data-try-search-terms-url="/try-search-term/"
data-saved-search-root-url="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/myncbi/searches/">
<input type="hidden" name="csrfmiddlewaretoken" value="yh5vd7pWwAdw73hNJU1vgiRNpaPBokAAP4PAQXSi6b001unDmdExKqnrXexNhV8U">
<div class="action-panel-control-wrap">
<label for="saved-search-name" class="action-panel-label saved-search-name-label required-field-asterisk">
Name of saved search:
</label>
<input maxlength="200"
type="text"
name="saved-search-name"
id="saved-search-name"
class="saved-search-name"
value=""
required
pattern="[^&quot;&amp;=&lt;&gt;\/]*" title="The following characters are not allowed in the Name field: &quot;&amp;=&lt;&gt;/">
</div>
<div class="action-panel-control-wrap">
<label for="saved-search-term" class="action-panel-label required-field-asterisk">
Search terms:
</label>
<textarea name="saved-search-term" id="saved-search-term" class="saved-search-term" required></textarea>
</div>
<div class="test-search-term-wrap">
<a href="#" class="try-search-term">Test search terms</a>
</div>
<div class="choice-group action-panel-extra-margin-top">
<span class="action-panel-label" id="fieldset-label">
Would you like email updates of new search results?
</span>
<fieldset id="saved-search-alert" aria-describedby="fieldset-label">
<legend class="usa-sr-only">Saved Search Alert Radio Buttons</legend>
<ul class="radio-group-items">
<li>
<input type="radio" id="saved-search-alert-yes" class="saved-search-alert-yes" name="saved-search-alert" value="yes" checked>
<label for="saved-search-alert-yes" class="action-panel-label">Yes</label>
</li>
<li>
<input aria-label="No radio input" type="radio" id="saved-search-alert-no" class="saved-search-alert-no" name="saved-search-alert" value="no">
<label for="saved-search-alert-no" class="action-panel-label">No</label>
</li>
</ul>
</fieldset>
</div>
<div class="alert-schedule-wrap">
<div class="action-panel-control-wrap">
<label class="action-panel-label">
Email:
</label>
<span aria-label="Email address" id="saved-search-email" class="action-panel-label"><span class="action-panel-label-bold"></span> (<a class="myncbi-account-settings" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/account/settings/">change</a>)</span>
</div>
<div class="action-panel-control-wrap action-panel-extra-margin-top">
<label for="saved-search-frequency" class="action-panel-label">
Frequency:
</label>
<select id="saved-search-frequency" class="no-border-panel-selector saved-search-frequency">
<option value="monthly">Monthly</option>
<option value="weekly">Weekly</option>
<option value="daily">Daily</option>
</select>
</div>
<div class="action-panel-control-wrap saved-search-monthly-additional">
<label for="saved-search-monthly-on-day" class="action-panel-label">
Which day?
</label>
<select id="saved-search-monthly-on-day" class="no-border-panel-selector">
<option value="Sunday">The first Sunday</option>
<option value="Monday">The first Monday</option>
<option value="Tuesday">The first Tuesday</option>
<option value="Wednesday">The first Wednesday</option>
<option value="Thursday">The first Thursday</option>
<option value="Friday">The first Friday</option>
<option value="Saturday">The first Saturday</option>
<option value="day">The first day</option>
<option value="weekday">The first weekday</option>
</select>
</div>
<div class="action-panel-control-wrap saved-search-weekly-additional">
<label for="saved-search-weekly-on-day" class="action-panel-label">
Which day?
</label>
<select id="saved-search-weekly-on-day" class="no-border-panel-selector saved-search-weekly-on-day">
<option value="Sunday">Sunday</option>
<option value="Monday">Monday</option>
<option value="Tuesday">Tuesday</option>
<option value="Wednesday">Wednesday</option>
<option value="Thursday">Thursday</option>
<option value="Friday">Friday</option>
<option value="Saturday">Saturday</option>
</select>
</div>
<div class="action-panel-control-wrap">
<label for="saved-search-report" class="action-panel-label">
Report format:
</label>
<select id="saved-search-report" class="no-border-panel-selector saved-search-report">
<option value="DocSum">Summary</option>
<option value="DocSumText">Summary (text)</option>
<option value="Abstract">Abstract</option>
<option value="AbstractText">Abstract (text)</option>
<option value="MEDLINE">PubMed</option>
</select>
</div>
<div class="action-panel-control-wrap">
<label for="saved-search-amount" class="action-panel-label">
Send at most:
</label>
<select id="saved-search-amount" class="no-border-panel-selector saved-search-amount">
<option value="1">1 item</option>
<option value="5" selected>5 items</option>
<option value="10">10 items</option>
<option value="20">20 items</option>
<option value="50">50 items</option>
<option value="100">100 items</option>
<option value="200">200 items</option>
</select>
</div>
<div>
<input type="checkbox" id="saved-search-send-if-no-result" class="saved-search-send-if-no-result" name="saved-search-send-if-no-result">
<label for="saved-search-send-if-no-result" class="action-panel-label smaller-checkbox">
Send even when there aren't any new results
</label>
</div>
<div class="action-panel-control-wrap option-text-in-email-wrap">
<label for="saved-search-email-text" class="action-panel-label">
Optional text in email:
</label>
<textarea name="saved-search-email-text"
id="saved-search-email-text"
class="saved-search-email-text"></textarea>
</div>
</div>
<div class="action-panel-actions">
<button class="action-panel-submit"
type="submit"
data-loading-label="Saving..."
data-ga-category="save_share"
data-ga-action="alert"
data-ga-label="save">
Save
</button>
<button class="action-panel-cancel"
aria-label="Close 'Your saved search' panel"
ref="linksrc=close_saved_search_panel"
aria-controls="saved-search-action-panel"
aria-expanded="false"
data-ga-category="save_share"
data-ga-action="alert"
data-ga-label="cancel">
Cancel
</button>
</div>
</form>
</div>
</div>
<div id="citation-manager-action-panel" class="citation-manager-action-panel action-panel" aria-hidden="true">
<div class="inner-wrap">
<h2 class="action-panel-heading">
Create a file for external citation management software
</h2>
<form id="citation-manager-action-panel-form"
class="action-panel-content action-form"
action="/results-export-ids/"
data-by-search-action="/results-export-search-data/"
data-by-ids-action="/results-export-ids/"
method="post"
data-by-search-method="post"
data-by-ids-method="post">
<input type="hidden" name="csrfmiddlewaretoken" value="yh5vd7pWwAdw73hNJU1vgiRNpaPBokAAP4PAQXSi6b001unDmdExKqnrXexNhV8U">
<input name="results-format" type="hidden" value="pubmed"/>
<div class="action-panel-actions">
<button class="action-panel-submit"
type="submit"
data-loading-label="Sending..."
data-ga-category="save_share"
data-ga-action="citation_manager"
data-ga-label="save">
Create file
</button>
<button class="action-panel-cancel"
aria-label="Close 'Send citations to citation manager' panel"
ref="linksrc=close_citation_manager_panel"
aria-controls="citation-manager-action-panel"
aria-expanded="false"
data-ga-category="save_share"
data-ga-action="citation_manager"
data-ga-label="cancel">
Cancel
</button>
</div>
</form>
</div>
</div>
<div id="rss-action-panel" class="rss-action-panel action-panel " aria-hidden="true">
<div class="inner-wrap">
<h2 class="action-panel-heading">
Your RSS Feed
</h2>
<form id="rss-action-panel-form"
class="rss-action-panel-form action-panel-content action-form"
data-create-rss-feed-url="/create-rss-feed-url/"
data-search-form-term-value="">
<input type="hidden" name="csrfmiddlewaretoken" value="yh5vd7pWwAdw73hNJU1vgiRNpaPBokAAP4PAQXSi6b001unDmdExKqnrXexNhV8U">
<div class="action-panel-control-wrap">
<label for="rss-name" class="action-panel-label required-field-asterisk">
Name of RSS Feed:
</label>
<input maxlength="200"
placeholder="Name"
type="text"
name="rss-name"
id="rss-name"
class="rss-name"
value=''
required
pattern="[^&quot;&amp;=&lt;&gt;\/]*" title="The following characters are not allowed in the Name field: &quot;&amp;=&lt;&gt;/">
</div>
<div class="rss-limit-wrap">
<div class="action-panel-control-wrap action-panel-extra-margin-top">
<label for="rss-limit" class="action-panel-label">
Number of items displayed:
</label>
<select id="rss-limit" class="no-border-panel-selector rss-limit">
<option value="5">5</option>
<option value="10">10</option>
<option value="15" selected="selected">15</option>
<option value="20">20</option>
<option value="50">50</option>
<option value="100">100</option>
</select>
</div>
</div>
<div class="action-panel-actions">
<button class="action-panel-submit"
type="submit"
data-loading-label="Creating..."
data-ga-category="save_share"
data-ga-action="alert"
data-ga-label="save">
Create RSS
</button>
<button class="action-panel-cancel"
aria-label="Close 'Your RSS' panel"
ref="linksrc=close_rss_panel"
aria-controls="rss-action-panel"
aria-expanded="false"
data-ga-category="save_share"
data-ga-action="alert"
data-ga-label="cancel">
Cancel
</button>
</div>
<div class="action-panel-control-wrap rss-link-copy-wrap">
<label for="rss-link" class="usa-sr-only">RSS Link</label>
<input placeholder="Your RSS Feed Link" type="text" name="rss-link" id="rss-link" class="rss-link" title="RSS Link">
<button
type="button"
disabled
class="rss-link-copy-button disabled"
data-ga-category="save_share"
data-ga-action="rss"
data-ga-label="copy">
Copy
</button>
</div>
</form>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="article-page" id="article-page" data-article-pmid="16959170">
<aside class="page-sidebar">
<div class="inner-wrap">
<div class="full-text-links">
<div class="full-view">
<h3 class="title">
Full text links
</h3>
<div class="full-text-links-list">
<a class="link-item
dialog-focus"
href="https://doi.org/10.3310/hta10340"
target="_blank"
rel="noopener"
ref="linksrc=fulltextorjournal_fulltext&amp;is_pmc=False&amp;PrId=3012&amp;itool=Abstract-def&amp;log$=linkouticon&amp;uid=16959170&amp;db=pubmed&amp;nlmid=9706284"
title="See full text options at National Institute for Health and Care Research Journals Library"
data-ga-category="full_text"
data-ga-action="National Institute for Health and Care Research Journals Library"
data-ga-label="16959170"
><img src="https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/corehtml/query/egifs/https:--www.journalslibrary.nihr.ac.uk-images-NIHR_JL_PubMed.GIF" alt="National Institute for Health and Care Research Journals Library full text link"><span class="text">
National Institute for Health and Care Research Journals Library
</span></a>
</div>
</div>
<div class="short-view">
<a href="#" class="full-text-links-button full-text-links-dialog-trigger">
Full text links
</a>
</div>
</div>
<div class="actions-buttons sidebar"><h3 class="title">Actions</h3><div class="inner-wrap"><button class="citation-button citation-dialog-trigger"
aria-label="Open dialog with citation text in different styles"
data-ga-category="save_share"
data-ga-action="cite"
data-ga-label="open"
data-all-citations-url="/16959170/citations/"
data-citation-style="nlm"
data-pubmed-format-link="/16959170/export/"><span class="button-label">Cite</span></button><link type="text/css" href="ncbi-overlay-block/src/overlay-block.css"><div class="collections-button-container" data-article-id="16959170" data-article-db="pubmed"><button class="collections-button collections-dialog-trigger"
aria-label="Save article in MyNCBI collections."
data-ga-category="collections_button"
data-ga-action="click"
data-ga-label="collections_button"
data-collections-open-dialog-enabled="false"
data-collections-open-dialog-url="https://account.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/?back_url=https%3A%2F%2Fpubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov%2F16959170%2F%23open-collections-dialog"
data-in-collections="false"><span class="button-label">Collections</span></button><div class="overlay" role="dialog"><div id="collections-action-dialog"
class="dialog collections-dialog"
aria-hidden="true"><div class="title">Add to Collections</div><div class="collections-action-panel action-panel"><form id="collections-action-dialog-form"
class="collections-action-panel-form action-panel-content action-form action-panel-smaller-selectors"
data-existing-collections-url="/list-existing-collections/"
data-add-to-existing-collection-url="/add-to-existing-collection/"
data-create-and-add-to-new-collection-url="/create-and-add-to-new-collection/"
data-myncbi-max-collection-name-length="100"
data-collections-root-url="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/myncbi/collections/"><input type="hidden" name="csrfmiddlewaretoken" value="yh5vd7pWwAdw73hNJU1vgiRNpaPBokAAP4PAQXSi6b001unDmdExKqnrXexNhV8U"><div class="choice-group" role="radiogroup"><ul class="radio-group-items"><li><input type="radio"
id="collections-action-dialog-new"
class="collections-new"
name="collections"
value="new"
data-ga-category="collections_button"
data-ga-action="click"
data-ga-label="collections_radio_new"><label for="collections-action-dialog-new">Create a new collection</label></li><li><input type="radio"
id="collections-action-dialog-existing"
class="collections-existing"
name="collections"
value="existing"
checked="true"
data-ga-category="collections_button"
data-ga-action="click"
data-ga-label="collections_radio_existing"><label for="collections-action-dialog-existing">Add to an existing collection</label></li></ul></div><div class="controls-wrapper"><div class="action-panel-control-wrap new-collections-controls"><label for="collections-action-dialog-add-to-new" class="action-panel-label required-field-asterisk">
Name your collection:
</label><input
type="text"
name="add-to-new-collection"
id="collections-action-dialog-add-to-new"
class="collections-action-add-to-new"
pattern="[^&quot;&amp;=&lt;&gt;\/]*" title="The following characters are not allowed in the Name field: &quot;&amp;=&lt;&gt;/"
maxlength="100"
data-ga-category="collections_button"
data-ga-action="create_collection"
data-ga-label="non_favorties_collection"><div class="collections-new-name-too-long usa-input-error-message selection-validation-message">
Name must be less than 100 characters
</div></div><div class="action-panel-control-wrap existing-collections-controls"><label for="collections-action-dialog-add-to-existing" class="action-panel-label">
Choose a collection:
</label><select id="collections-action-dialog-add-to-existing"
class="action-panel-selector collections-action-add-to-existing"
data-ga-category="collections_button"
data-ga-action="select_collection"
data-ga-label="($('.collections-action-add-to-existing').val() === 'Favorites') ? 'Favorites' : 'non_favorites_collection'"></select><div class="collections-retry-load-on-error usa-input-error-message selection-validation-message">
Unable to load your collection due to an error<br><a href="#">Please try again</a></div></div></div><div class="action-panel-actions"><button class="action-panel-submit"
type="submit"
data-loading-label="Adding..."
data-pinger-ignore
data-ga-category="collections_button"
data-ga-action="click"
data-ga-label="add">
Add
</button><button class="action-panel-cancel"
aria-label="Close 'Add to Collections' panel"
ref="linksrc=close_collections_panel"
aria-controls="collections-action-panel"
aria-expanded="false"
data-ga-category="collections_button"
data-ga-action="click"
data-ga-label="cancel">
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Electronic databases from 1980 through to February 2002. A survey of clinical practice in UK cancer centres and units. Large retrospective dataset containing data on prognostic factors, treatments and outcomes for women with early breast cancer treated in Oxford.
</p>
<p>
<strong class="sub-title">
Review methods:
</strong>
Between six and nine databases were searched by an information expert. Evidence-based methods were used to review and select those studies and the quality of each included paper was assessed using standard assessment tools reported in the literature or piloted and developed for this study. A survey of clinical practice in UK cancer centres and units was carried out to ensure that conclusions drawn from the report could be implemented. These data, along with the information gathered in the systematic reviews, informed the methodological approach adopted for the health economic modelling. An illustrative framework was developed for incorporating patient-level prediction within a health economic decision model. This framework was applied to a large retrospective dataset containing data on prognostic factors, treatments and outcomes for women with early breast cancer treated in Oxford. The data were used to estimate directly a parametric regression-based risk equation, from which a prognostic index was developed, and prognosis-specific estimates of the baseline breast cancer hazard could be observed. Published estimates of treatment effects, health service treatment costs and utilities were used to construct a decision analytic framework around this risk equation, thus enabling simulation of the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of adjuvant therapy for all possible combinations of prognostic factors included in the model.
</p>
<p>
<strong class="sub-title">
Results:
</strong>
The lack of good-quality systematic reviews and well-conducted studies of prognostic factors in breast cancer is a striking finding. There are no registers of studies of prognostic factors or of reviews of prognostic studies. Many of the reviews used weak methods, primary studies are similar with poor methodology and reporting of results. In addition, there is much variation in patient populations, assay methods, analysis of results, definitions used and reporting of results. Most studies appear to be retrospective and some use inappropriate methods likely to inflate outcomes such as optimising cut points and failing to test the results in an independent population. Very few reviews used meta-analysis to conduct a pooled analysis and to provide an estimate of the average size of any association. Instead, most reviews relied on vote counting. Although many prognostic models for breast cancer have been published, remarkably few have been re-examined by independent groups in independent settings. The few validation studies have been carried out on ill-defined samples, sometimes of smaller size and short follow-up, and sometimes using different patient outcomes when validating a model. The evidence from the validation studies shows support for the prognostic value of the Nottingham Prognostic Index (NPI). No new prognostic factors have been shown to add substantially to those identified in the 1980s. Improvement of this index depends on finding factors that are as important as, but independent of, lymph node, stage and pathological grade. The NPI remains a useful clinical tool, although additional factors may enhance its use. We accepted that hormone receptor status (ER) for hormonal therapy such as tamoxifen and prediction of response to trastuzumab by HER2 did not require systematic review, as the mechanism of action of these drugs requires intact receptors. There was no clear evidence that other factors were useful predictors of response and survival. The survey confirmed pathological nodal status, tumour grade, tumour size and ER status as the most clinically important factors for consideration when selecting women with early breast cancer for adjuvant systemic therapy in the UK. The protocols revealed that although UK cancer centres appear to be using the same prognostic and predictive factors when selecting women to receive adjuvant therapy, much variation in clinical practice exists. Some centres use protocols based upon the NPI whereas others do not use a single index score. Within NPI and non-NPI users, between-centre variability exists in guidelines for women for whom the benefits are uncertain. Consensus amongst units appears to be greatest when selecting women for adjuvant hormone therapy with the decision based primarily upon ER or progesterone receptor status rather than combinations of a number of factors. Guidelines as to who should receive adjuvant chemotherapy, however, were found to be much less uniform. Searches of the literature revealed only five published papers that had previously examined the cost-effectiveness of using prognostic information for clinical decision-making. These studies were of varying quality and highlight the fact that economic evaluation in this area appears still to be in its infancy. By combining methodologies used in determining prognosis with those used in health economic evaluation, it was possible to illustrate an approach for simulating the effectiveness (survival and quality-adjusted survival) and the cost-effectiveness associated with the decision to treat individual women or groups of women with different prognostic characteristics. The model showed that effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of adjuvant systemic therapy have the potential to vary substantially depending upon prognosis. For some women therapy may prove very effective and cost-effective, whereas for others it may actually prove detrimental (i.e. the reductions in health-related quality of life outweigh any survival benefit).
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Conclusions:
</strong>
Outputs from the framework constructed using the methods described here have the potential to be useful for clinicians, attempting to determine whether net benefits can be obtained from administering adjuvant therapy for any presenting woman; and also for policy makers, who must be able to determine the total costs and outcomes associated with different prognosis based treatment protocols as compared with more conventional treat all or treat none policies. A risk table format enabling clinicians to look up a patient's prognostic factors to determine the likely benefits (survival and quality-adjusted survival) from administering therapy may be helpful. For policy makers, it was demonstrated that the model's output could be used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of different treatment protocols based upon prognostic information. The framework should also be valuable in evaluating the likely impact and cost-effectiveness of new potential prognostic factors and adjuvant therapies.
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