Cover of Evidence review for escalation of lipid-lowering treatment for secondary prevention of CVD

Evidence review for escalation of lipid-lowering treatment for secondary prevention of CVD

Cardiovascular disease: risk assessment and reduction, including lipid modification

Evidence review D

NICE Guideline, No. 238

London: National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE); .
ISBN-13: 978-1-4731-5638-8
Copyright © NICE 2023.

1. Escalation of lipid-lowering treatment for secondary prevention of CVD

1.1. Review question

In adults with CVD requiring escalation of therapy beyond statins, what is the effectiveness of lipid-lowering therapy?

1.1.1. Introduction

Recommendations in NICE guideline CG181, to date, have included advice on follow-up for people started on statin treatment; recommending a percentage reduction of non-HDL cholesterol levels to aim for at 3 months follow-up and guidance on factors to consider if this is not achieved, such as adherence and dose of statin therapy. However, the recommendations do not address when to escalate treatment beyond statin therapy.

Recent evidence suggests that many people are not being prescribed lipid lowering medicines beyond high intensity statins, even after a CVD event. This partial update of CG181 intends to address this gap, specifically for secondary prevention of CVD where risk of further CVD events is greatest. An evidence review and economic analysis will be undertaken to inform escalation of lipid lowering therapy beyond statins, including consideration of a treatment target for secondary prevention.

1.1.2. Summary of the protocol

For full details see the review protocol in Appendix A.

Table 1. PICO characteristics of review question.

Table 1

PICO characteristics of review question.

1.1.3. Methods and process

This evidence review was developed using the methods and process described in Developing NICE guidelines: the manual. Methods specific to this review question are described in the review protocol in Appendix A and the methods document. The clinical review was conducted mainly to provide inputs for the model and neither the pairwise nor network meta-analysis estimates directly inform the recommendations, as they cannot give any information about a cholesterol target. Therefore, setting specific clinical importance thresholds was not prioritised, but the size of the effects in relation to risks and benefits for people with CVD was discussed.

Where studies reported lipid levels as mg/dl, these were converted to mmol/litre using a conversion factor of 0.02586.

An original network meta-analysis was conducted by the NICE Technical Support Unit for the outcomes of percentage and absolute change in both LDL cholesterol and non-HDL cholesterol. Details of this analysis are provided in a separate NMA results document.

Declarations of interest were recorded according to NICE’s conflicts of interest policy.

1.1.4. Effectiveness evidence

Included studies

Thirty four RCT studies reported in 51 papers were included in the review;127, 2942, 4453 these are summarised in Table 2 below. Evidence from these studies is summarised in the clinical evidence summaries below (Table 3 to Table 7).

See also the study selection flow chart in B.2, study evidence tables in Appendix D, forest plots in Appendix E and GRADE tables in Appendix G.

All included studies reported having at least 80% of participants with cardiovascular disease (CVD) at baseline. However, there were differences between the studies regarding statin treatment before randomisation and statin intensity during the trial, as well as in the dosing regimens of the PCSK9 monoclonal antibodies. Furthermore, not all of the trials were placebo controlled, with some using an active comparator or usual care with no blinding. These details are summarised in Table 2.

Of the 34 included trials:

  • 15 (reported in 19 papers)35, 7, 1517, 21, 2325, 35, 39, 4648, 5052 compared ezetimibe plus statin with statin alone. Of these:
    • 2 were placebo-controlled.5, 16
    • At randomisation 4 used medium-intensity statins,3, 5, 25, 52 8 used high-intensity16, 17, 23, 24, 35, 39, 49, 50 and 2 used mixed or unclear statin intensities.46, 48
    • IMPROVE-IT was the largest trial, and it should be noted that 27% of participants in the statin arm were escalated from simvastatin 40 mg to simvastatin 80 mg.5
    • Only 1 trial exclusively included patients who had prior statin treatment;49 1 had 57% with statin pre-treatment,3 6 reported <50% with prior statin,5, 25, 39, 46, 48, 52 and 2 included only statin-naïve patients.16, 35
    • Follow-up ranged from 12 weeks to 6 years.
  • 14 (reported in 26 papers)1, 2, 8, 9, 11, 12, 1820, 26, 27, 2934, 36, 38, 4042, 44, 45, 49, 53 compared PCSK9 inhibitors (PCSK9i) with placebo or usual care in populations amongst whom the majority were taking background statin treatment. Of these:
    • The control group was usual care in 4 trials.2, 11, 36, 38
    • All except one34 enrolled those with statin pre-treatment, which continued during trial.
    • Statin intensity definitions did not match those used in this guideline, but most participants were on maximum tolerated dose, which included high and medium intensity statins in varying proportions.
    • The largest trials were FOURIER42 (N=27563) and ODYSSEY OUTCOMES45 (N=18924).
    • The specific PCSK9 monoclonal antibody used was alirocumab in 9 trails reported in 8 papers2, 11, 18, 19, 26, 34, 36, 45 and evolocumab in 4 trials,12, 29, 31, 42 with 1 trial including both.38
    • Follow-up ranged from 12 weeks to >2 years.
    • The results for ODYSSEY LONG TERM,26 ODYSSEY DM-DYSLIPIDEMIA36 and ODYSSEY DM-INSULIN36 do not represent the full trial cohort, which included <80% with CVD. Therefore, the CVD subgroup from individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis has been reported in this review.
  • 2 trials6, 13 compared PCSK9i with ezetimibe in populations amongst whom the majority were taking background statin treatment.
  • 1 trial14 compared PCSK9i plus ezetimibe with ezetimibe in populations amongst whom the majority were taking background statin treatment.
  • 2 trials (reported in 1 paper)37 compared inclisiran with placebo (ORION 10 and 11) in populations amongst whom the majority were taking background statin treatment.

Cochrane reviews

Two Cochrane reviews43, 54 were identified that partially matched the protocol and were included and used in the following ways:

  • All included studies were cross-checked for inclusion in this review.
  • Relevant outcome data for studies included in this review was cross-checked with the data extracted for this analysis as an additional measure of quality assurance.
  • Risk of bias assessments for studies included in this review were used as a basis for critical appraisal considerations but were re-assessed per outcome and in line with NICE guideline methodology.

Evidence tables for the individual systematic reviews have not been included in the present review but the relevant information from them has been used to inform the analyses and cross-check data included in the evidence tables for the relevant studies.

Earlier versions of these reviews and their review protocols have not been included. See the excluded studies list in Appendix K.

1.1.5. Summary of studies included in the effectiveness evidence

Details of the included studies are summarised in Table 2.

Table 2. Summary of studies included in the evidence review.

Table 2

Summary of studies included in the evidence review.

See Appendix D for full evidence tables.

1.1.6. Summary of the effectiveness evidence

Primary analyses
Table 3. Clinical evidence summary: ezetimibe plus statin versus statin.

Table 3

Clinical evidence summary: ezetimibe plus statin versus statin.

Table 4. Clinical evidence summary: PCSK9i versus placebo or usual care.

Table 4

Clinical evidence summary: PCSK9i versus placebo or usual care.

Table 5. Clinical evidence summary: PCSK9i versus ezetimibe.

Table 5

Clinical evidence summary: PCSK9i versus ezetimibe.

Table 6. Clinical evidence summary: PCSK9i plus ezetimibe versus ezetimibe.

Table 6

Clinical evidence summary: PCSK9i plus ezetimibe versus ezetimibe.

Table 7. Clinical evidence summary: inclisiran versus placebo.

Table 7

Clinical evidence summary: inclisiran versus placebo.

See Appendix G for full GRADE tables.

Sensitivity analyses

Forest plots showing the data stratified according to the prespecified subgroups (baseline LDL cholesterol, and non-HDL cholesterol and statin intensity) are provided in Appendix F where sufficient data were available.

These were discussed at the guideline committee meeting and the committee agreed that, while there was often insufficient outcome data to test robustly, the sensitivity analyses results did not show a consistent signal of any difference in LDL cholesterol, non-HDL cholesterol or MACE reductions achieved by any of the interventions according to baseline LDL cholesterol or non-HDL cholesterol or by statin intensity. Thus, decision making was based on the primary analysis using the total population and GRADE tables are not presented for the sensitivity analyses.

1.1.7. Economic evidence

The purpose of this review question was to identify key inputs for an economic model comparing the cost effectiveness of different cholesterol targets – see separate economic analysis report. Economic evaluations of lipid modification therapy were not systematically reviewed.

1.1.8. Evidence statements

Effectiveness/Qualitative
  • Not applicable.
Economic
  • Not applicable.

1.1.9. The committee's discussion and interpretation of the evidence

The outcomes that matter most

The committee agreed that LDL cholesterol, non-HDL cholesterol, combined major adverse cardiovascular events (CVD death, non-fatal MI, non-fatal ischemic stroke), quality of life and specific treatment-related adverse events (myopathy/rhabdomyolysis, new-onset diabetes, increased liver transaminases, cancer, gall-bladder related diseases, injection-site reactions, nausea and influenza) were all required for this evidence review. For the purposes of decision making, all outcomes were considered equally important and were therefore rated as critical.

The quality of the evidence

There were 34 RCTs included in the clinical evidence. The quality of the evidence varied across comparisons ranging from very low to high for different outcomes.

Pairwise analyses
Ezetimibe plus statin versus statin alone

There were 15 RCTs comparing ezetimibe plus statin versus statin alone, 10 of which were open-label unblinded studies. The majority of the outcomes available for this comparison were rated as moderate quality, including percentage change in LDL cholesterol from baseline, MACE outcomes and raised liver transaminases and gallbladder-related adverse events. These were downgraded for either imprecision where the confidence interval around the effect estimated crossed an MID, or for concerns over intervention indirectness due to imbalance in statin dose between intervention and comparator groups. Evidence for cancer was rated as high quality. Evidence for LDL cholesterol and non-HDL cholesterol reported as final values or absolute changes and percentage change in non-HDL cholesterol was of very low quality because of imprecision and further downgrading for risk of bias (such as high rates of missing data, imbalance in age between groups, insufficient information about randomisation procedures and potential deviation from randomised intervention in unblinded studies). Evidence for myopathy/rhabdomyolysis was also of very low quality, downgraded for imprecision and the aforementioned concerns over indirectness related to the intervention received, which was particularly important for this outcome because simvastatin 80 mg is known to be associated with an increased incidence of muscle adverse events.

The committee discussed the characteristics of the trial participants, including statin use before and during the study period. For this comparison only 1 trial exclusively included people who had prior statin treatment, 1 had 57% with statin pre-treatment, 6 reported <50% with prior statin, 3 included only statin naïve participants, while the remaining 4 did not provide information on prior statin use. Regarding the starting dose of statin at randomisation, 4 used medium intensity statins, 9 used high intensity and 2 were mixed or unclear. Statin dose titration was permitted if targets were not met in at least 3 trials that did not start participants on high-intensity statins. This included the IMPROVE-IT trial, in which 27% in the statin alone arm were escalated to simvastatin 80 mg compared to 6% in the ezetimibe arm. The committee noted that this is likely to dilute the relative benefit of adding ezetimibe to statin but agreed that this does not limit the usefulness of the data as it reflects real-world practice. Other studies did not specify if dose escalation was permitted.

PCSK9i (alirocumab or evolocumab) versus placebo or usual care

Evidence for PCSK9i (alirocumab and evolocumab) compared to placebo or usual care was available from 14 RCTs. The quality of the evidence for the majority of outcomes including LDL cholesterol and non-HDL cholesterol and nausea was low due to imprecision around the effect estimates and inconsistency due to heterogeneity in the results of the studies contributing to the lipid outcomes that was unexplained by subgroup analysis. The quality of the evidence for MACE was moderate, only downgraded due to imprecision. The quality of the evidence for the adverse events of new-onset diabetes, increased liver transaminases and injection-site reactions was high, with no concerns lowering confidence in the evidence.

All except 1 trial enrolled people who were already receiving statins, which they continued alongside the randomised interventions. In most cases statins were administered at the maximally tolerated dose, which included high and medium intensity in varying proportions. A small proportion of participants (ranging from 1 to 14%) were also receiving ezetimibe as part of lipid-lowering therapy in 9 trials. The committee agreed that this was similar to current UK practice for those receiving PCSK9 inhibitors.

PCSK9i versus ezetimibe

The quality of the evidence for PCSK9i vs ezetimibe, available from 2 RCTs, was mostly of very low or low quality as it was downgraded for imprecision around the effect estimates and in some cases indirectness related to the outcome reporting (time-point being shorter than 12 months for MACE in one of the two contributing studies). For influenza, there was also risk of bias as it was unclear whether the outcome was consistently reported. The quality of the evidence for lipid outcomes was higher. Specifically, evidence was considered high quality for LDL cholesterol and moderate for percentage change in non-HDL cholesterol from baseline, the latter being downgraded for concerns over inconsistency due to heterogeneity in the results of the two studies contributing to the pooled estimate. Participants were receiving stable maximally tolerated statin therapy, which continued alongside the randomised interventions, which is directly applicable.

PCSK9i plus ezetimibe versus ezetimibe alone

Evidence for PCSK9i plus ezetimibe compared to ezetimibe alone, available from one RCT, was of low quality, downgraded for risk of bias due to the recruitment and randomisation methods not being specified (leading to potential selection bias), and treatment being adjusted according to lipid control during follow-up in combination with lack of blinding.

Inclisiran versus placebo

Evidence for inclisiran versus placebo, available from 2 studies was of moderate quality for LDL cholesterol and MACE and of low quality for injection site reactions and very low quality for increased liver transaminases. The quality of the evidence was mostly downgraded for imprecision and for inconsistency in the cases of LDL cholesterol and injection-site reactions due to heterogeneity in the results reported between the studies contributing to the pooled estimates for those outcomes. Increased liver transaminases and injection-site reactions were further downgraded for risk of bias due to the event rate being lower than the number lost to follow-up meaning that if any events had occurred in those who were not available for the analysis the effect estimate may have changed significantly.

Summary

Overall, the committee were confident that the evidence for LDL and non-HDL cholesterol were of sufficient quality to reliably inform the network meta-analyses and health economic model.

Network meta-analyses

For absolute and percentage change in LDL cholesterol and non-HDL cholesterol, the risk of bias and indirectness was as described for the pairwise analyses because the same studies were included.

The credible intervals around the effect estimates for each intervention relative to placebo varied. For absolute and percentage change in LDL cholesterol, there was little uncertainty for most of the estimates for active treatments compared to placebo. However, there was moderate uncertainty for percentage change in LDL cholesterol for inclisiran compared to placebo, with credible intervals spanning around 20% and for evolocumab plus ezetimibe there was considerable uncertainty for absolute change in LDL cholesterol with credible intervals spanning 0.8 mmol/litre.

For percentage change in non-HDL cholesterol there was considerable uncertainty for ezetimibe and inclisiran, with the credible intervals spanning an interval of more than 20% and moderate uncertainty for PCSK9i with the credible interval spanning around 15%. For absolute change in non-HDL cholesterol, which was not available for inclisiran, the credible intervals spanned more than 1.0 mmol/litre for ezetimibe and more than 0.8 mmol/litre for PCSK9i, again showing considerable uncertainty.

Inconsistency was minimal for all of the modelled datasets, and there was good agreement between the direct and indirect treatment effect estimates.

The committee were confident that these results were a good reflection of the true effects and could therefore be used to inform the economic model.

Benefits and harms
Pairwise analyses
Ezetimibe plus statin versus statin alone

Absolute LDL cholesterol change from baseline or final score was more commonly reported than other lipid outcomes. The committee noted variability between studies in the change and final scores. Overall, adding ezetimibe had a clear benefit for additional lipid lowering compared with statin alone. There was limited evidence to demonstrate whether this benefit translated into a reduction in MACE and the absolute risk difference was modest. However, the committee discussed that the majority of studies had a follow-up of 1 year or less, and that in the largest study with the longest follow-up the benefit of ezetimibe was likely to have been diluted by the simvastatin dose being increased in a larger proportion of the control group than the experimental group. Therefore, they agreed that the evidence was likely to be an underestimate of the true benefit of ezetimibe for this outcome.

The occurrence of protocol-reported adverse events (including myopathy/rhabdomyolysis, liver transaminases, cancer or gallbladder-related adverse events) was rare overall making the estimates imprecise, but the committee agreed that there were no clinically important differences for any reported adverse events. This was in line with the committee’s opinion that the adverse events of ezetimibe were minimal and did not outweigh the benefits.

PCSK9i (alirocumab or evolocumab) versus placebo or usual care

The committee noted that LDL cholesterol was more commonly reported than non-HDL cholesterol, and that there was some inconsistency between studies in the lipid outcomes. However, adding alirocumab or evolocumab to statin, with or without ezetimibe, resulted in additional lipid lowering compared with placebo or usual care and the size of the effects, showing a large benefit of PCSK9i compared with control, were as the committee would expect based on their clinical experience.

As for ezetimibe, there was limited evidence to demonstrate whether this benefit translated into a reduction in MACE. The committee noted that despite there being a greater lowering of LDL cholesterol with PCSK9i than with ezetimibe, the MACE benefit in terms of the absolute effect was similar. They discussed that this could be due to the PCSK9i trials being shorter due to insufficient funding for longer durations, which could mean that the maximal benefit for this outcome was not observed during the trials.

There were no clinically important differences in terms of adverse events including myopathy/rhabdomyolysis, new onset diabetes, increased liver transaminases, injection-site reactions or nausea. The committee noted that although the effect was not clinically important compared to control, a small proportion of people receiving PCSK9i experienced injection-site reactions. They agreed that this reflected a low number of events and that injection-site reactions are not likely to be significant or long-lasting.

PCSK9i versus ezetimibe

Amongst participants receiving stable maximally tolerated statin therapy PCSK9i achieved greater reductions in LDL cholesterol and non-HDL cholesterol compared to ezetimibe. There were no clinically important differences in terms of MACE, new onset of diabetes or increased liver transaminases. The committee agreed evidence for this comparison was limited considering the number of participants included and the relatively short duration of follow-up. They agreed evidence contributed to the NMA results but was of limited usefulness in its own right.

PCSK9i plus ezetimibe versus ezetimibe alone

The committee noted that evidence for this comparison was very limited as it was only available from one study with a total of 129 participants and the short duration of follow-up limiting the extent to which conclusions could be drawn.

Inclisiran versus placebo

Participants were receiving stable maximally tolerated statin therapy, with 6–10% also receiving ezetimibe, which continued alongside the randomised interventions. Evidence showed a large clinical benefit of inclisiran compared to placebo in terms of LDL cholesterol reduction, which the committee agreed reflected their experience. There was no clinically important difference between inclisiran and placebo in terms of MACE (definition including non-adjudicated events: CV death, cardiac arrest, non-fatal myocardial infarction and nonfatal stroke), but the committee agreed that the size of the absolute benefit of inclisiran was encouraging considering that the MACE outcome was exploratory and so the trials were not powered to detect a difference. They agreed that this exploratory endpoint gives indicative evidence that supports the likely translation of decreased cholesterol levels to reduced cardiovascular events, and they had confidence in the findings as being sufficient to inform the economic model.

The committee noted that inclisiran did result in more injection site reactions compared to placebo. However, they noted that the trials reported most of these to be mild (discomfort noticed, but no disruption to daily activity) and some moderate (discomfort sufficient to reduce or affect normal daily activity), but none were severe or persistent. The committee agreed that the effect was not clinically important particularly as injection frequency of inclisiran is low (every 6 months).

Sensitivity analyses (all comparisons)

It was noted that some studies conducted sensitivity analyses exploring the effect of different baseline LDL cholesterol and non-HDL cholesterol levels and of different statin intensities used by study participants upon lipid and MACE outcomes. Forest plots of those analyses were presented to the committee and it was agreed that while there was often insufficient outcome data to test robustly, there was no consistent signal of any difference in LDL cholesterol, non-HDL cholesterol or MACE reductions achieved by any of the interventions according to baseline LDL cholesterol or non-HDL cholesterol or by statin intensity. Thus, decision making was based on the primary analysis using the total population.

Summary

The pairwise evidence showed a benefit of all reviewed lipid lowering therapies for additional reduction of LDL cholesterol beyond that achieved by statins alone, without any clinically important increase in adverse events. Although there was some imprecision and heterogeneity, the findings for efficacy and adverse events were consistent with the committee’s clinical experience and expectations. Therefore, they agreed that the evidence was reliable to help inform the network meta-analysis and economic model.

Network meta-analyses

The committee discussed the effect estimates that draw on all available clinical evidence to provide consistent effect sizes compared to a control group (labelled placebo, but which included statin treatment) across all treatments in the network. They agreed that the findings for LDL cholesterol and non-HDL cholesterol broadly aligned with their expectations and experience, showing a large benefit of PCSK9i compared to control, with a similar but slightly lower benefit for inclisiran and a benefit for ezetimibe that was considerably less than that for PCSK9 or inclisiran.

The committee noted that they would expect to see a greater relative benefit for LDL cholesterol than for non-HDL cholesterol, but that this was not the case for the ezetimibe effect estimates from the NMA. The committee discussed that the greater benefit for non-HDL cholesterol in the ezetimibe data could be due to the fact that only 1 small study reported non-HDL cholesterol percentage change for ezetimibe versus statin alone, and showed a larger benefit for serum cholesterol than some other studies. The committee also discussed the possibility that ezetimibe can lead to 2–5% increase in HDL cholesterol and therefore this may also contribute to the NMA findings. Therefore, the NMA estimate for ezetimibe versus control was informed more by the indirect effect of alirocumab compared to ezetimibe, which may have caused the discrepancy from expectations.

The NMA effect estimates for inclisiran and PCSK9i were broadly consistent with those from the pairwise meta-analysis for all 4 outcomes assessed. However, for ezetimibe the NMA estimate for percentage change in LDL cholesterol and non-HDL cholesterol were higher than the results from the pairwise analyses. For non-HDL cholesterol this was likely to be due to the limited evidence available for percentage change in the direct comparison of ezetimibe versus control, meaning the NMA estimates were more influenced by the indirect comparisons.

Meta-regression models were conducted to explore the impact of mean baseline lipid levels on the treatment effect. However, there was very limited evidence with which to estimate the meta-regression models, and the, although effects were very uncertain, did not indicate any effect modification by baseline mean lipid levels in the studies. Therefore, the committee agreed that the meta-regression models were not useful to inform any further analyses.

Cost effectiveness and resource use

No published economic evaluations were found that compared different lipid targets. Therefore, original economic modelling was undertaken.

Cost effectiveness modelling of treatment escalation

As noted above, the treatments available for escalation for people with CVD who are on a statin were found to be both effective and safe. Although the injectable therapies (inclisiran and the PCSK9 inhibitors) were more effective than ezetimibe, they are considerably more costly due to the acquisition cost (even at confidential price levels that are discounted for the NHS) and the need for health care professionals to administer injections. Inclisiran has a lower cost than the PCSK9 inhibitors, even though patients taking PCSK9 inhibitors can self-inject.

The committee agreed that the cost of escalation treatment will be at least partially offset by reduced admissions and procedures for cardiovascular disease; therefore, it is important to weigh up the cost savings and health gain against the cost of treatment.

For the population, ezetimibe was the most cost-effective escalation treatment, with a cost per QALY under £1000. However, further routine escalation to any injectable treatment would cost over £30,000 per QALY. It is clearly not cost-effective to offer the full range of treatments to everyone with CVD, so it is important to assess at which baseline lipid levels, escalation could be cost effective.

Cost effectiveness of escalation by baseline lipid level

The economic models was developed using two alternative approaches. For each approach, separate analyses were conducted using treatment effects based on LDL cholesterol reduction and non-HDL cholesterol reduction. In both approaches, the sequence of escalation from a statin was first ezetimibe and then inclisiran. They differed as follows:

  • In the first approach the lipid levels at which it is cost effective to escalate therapy were estimated separately for adding ezetimibe to a statin and then for adding inclisiran to ezetimibe and a statin.
  • The second approach looked at a single lipid level at which it was cost effective to escalate treatment.

In patients maintained on statin therapy, the first approach demonstrated the cost effectiveness (at £20,000 per QALY gained) of adding ezetimibe irrespective of the actual LDL cholesterol or non-HDL cholesterol level and therefore a threshold value for the introduction of ezetimibe was not defined. With all patients maintained on both statin and ezetimibe, the addition of inclisiran was only cost-effective for those individuals with LDL cholesterol levels above 3.1 mmol/litre (or 4.1 mmol/litre for non-HDL cholesterol).

The second economic model approach demonstrated that escalation was cost effective for people with LDL cholesterol levels above 2.2 mmol/litre (or 2.9 mmol/litre for non-HDL cholesterol) after treatment with a statin i.e. only patients with LDL cholesterol > 2.0 mmol/litre (or non-HDL cholesterol > 2.9 mmol/litre) despite receiving statin therapy would then be prescribed ezetimibe, and only if the target of LDL cholesterol 2.2 mmol/litre (or non-HDL cholesterol 2.9 mmol/litre) was still not achieved would inclisiran be added. However, there was uncertainty in the region between 2.0 and 2.2 as, in the probabilistic analysis, 2.0 was the most cost-effective target in around 40% of the simulation. It was noted that amongst the CVD population (all receiving statin therapy) used for these models, the mean LDL cholesterol was 1.9 mmol/litre prior to any therapy escalation.

The base case scenario of the second approach defined a specific escalation pathway involving statins, followed by ezetimibe plus statin and finally inclisiran plus ezetimibe plus statin. In practice, the pathway does not always follow this sequence. As specified in TA733, people may be escalated to inclisiran without first receiving ezetimibe based on current cholesterol level and clinical judgement. Scenario analyses were conducted for 3 alternative pathways allowing some people to start an injectable therapy without first receiving ezetimibe. The most cost-effective target increased to 2.4 mmol/litre in the pathway where people could receive ezetimibe alone, inclisiran alone or ezetimibe together with an injectable therapy. When combination therapies or PCSK9i were excluded, the cost-effective target remained at 2.2 mmol/litre LDL-C.

Within each approach, the model identified a strategy that was most cost effective (below £20,000 per QALY):

  • Treatment-specific cholesterol thresholds - Ezetimibe for all at outset and then add inclisiran above 3.1 mmol/litre LDL cholesterol (4.1 mmol/litre non-HDL cholesterol).
  • Singe cholesterol target - Statin therapy only, UNLESS a target value of LDL cholesterol 2.2 mmol/litre (non-HDL cholesterol 2.9 mmol/litre) has not been achieved.

The reason that the second approach had a lower optimal cholesterol threshold was because the cost effectiveness of escalation is based on the cost effectiveness of both ezetimibe and inclisiran combined, rather than just inclisiran alone. Comparing the two strategies with each other, the single target strategy saw fewer people on ezetimibe, more people on inclisiran. It had a higher cost and more QALYs but the cost per additional QALY was greater than £30,000 per QALY. Both strategies are likely to cost less than £20,000 per QALY compared to current practice, where escalation is uncommon and they would be cost saving compared with an LDL cholesterol target of 1.8 (non-HDL cholesterol 2.5 mmol/litre), as currently recommended in the NHS Quality Outcomes Framework.

The results were robust to sensitivity analysis, except that:

  • The inclisiran treatment threshold was lower when alternative utility scores were used.
  • Both targets were lower if a £30,000 per QALY threshold was used.
  • The single target was higher when people were less adherent to ezetimibe and lower when people were less adherent to inclisiran.
  • Both targets were higher if PCSK9 inhibitors were used instead of inclisiran.
  • Both targets were higher if a treatment effect was applied only to cardiovascular mortality (not to all-cause mortality) but this approach is likely to under-estimate the benefits of escalation.
  • The single target was slightly higher when a different treatment pathway allowing people to use inclisiran with or without ezetimibe was used.

However, the committee were satisfied that the base case analyses were based on the most plausible assumptions.

For each approach, models were run twice with treatment effects based first on LDL cholesterol and then separately based on non-HDL cholesterol. Although, the base case results of each model were consistent, the LDL-c targets were generally considered more robust for the following reasons:

  • There was more trial evidence for the estimates of the percentage reduction in LDL cholesterol than there were for the estimates of non-HDL cholesterol.
  • There was more statin trial evidence for the effect of LDL cholesterol on cardiovascular events than there was for the effect of non-HDL cholesterol on cardiovascular events. For some of the cardiovascular events the results had to be approximated as there was only empirical evidence for MI and stroke.

However, the committee agreed that a non-HDL cholesterol target should also be given when LDL cholesterol is not requested or calculated.

Committee interpretation and recommendations

The committee acknowledged that giving ezetimibe to everyone who has CVD and is on a statin and then inclisiran or other injectable for those above an LDL cholesterol of 3.1 mmol/litre would be a relatively low cost and efficient strategy. However, they chose to recommend treating people to a LDL cholesterol target of 2.0 mmol/litre for the following reasons:

  • A target that is similar to that recommended by other organizations would be more likely to lead to increased use of cost-effective treatments, including statins.
  • Although it would mean people at low levels of cholesterol do not get ezetimibe, it would mean people with LDL levels between 2.0 and 3.1 mmol/litre after eztemibe would get other lipid lowering treatment, and so it favours people in more need of treatment.
  • The target of 2.0 was found to be cost-effective in a significant proportion of the simulations of the probabilistic analysis and would enable the treatment of a larger population with elevated LDL-c levels, mitigating their high risk of future CVD events.

Using the distributions from the CPRD dataset, a 2.0 LDL cholesterol equivalent target that would lead to the same proportion (42%) of people escalating would be 2.6 non-HDL cholesterol. As an alternative approach, non-HDL cholesterol was calculated using the Friedewald equation and the mean triglyceride level of 1.4 mmol/litre. This method also resulted in a non-HDL cholesterol of 2.6 mmol/litre.

Given that the evidence showed that ezetimibe was cost effective regardless of the person’s lipid levels, the committee also decided that it could be considered for people with lipid levels below the agreed targets of 2.0 mmol/litre for LDL cholesterol and 2.6 mmol/litre for non-HDL cholesterol, taking into account the trade-off between increasing medication (the committee noted that a combination pill of Atorvastatin and ezetimibe is available in the USA), minimising risk and the burden of implementation which is most likely to fall within primary care.

It is expected that this update to the guideline will substantially increase prescribing of ezetimibe and inclisiran and that this will represent a substantial resource impact for the NHS. However, it will also be associated with reduced admissions for stroke, MI and cardiovascular procedures and longer survival for patients. Overall, the committee concluded that this target would increase NHS costs but would be cost effective.

People who are statin intolerant

Pre-consultation feedback on the draft guideline from external stakeholders highlighted the absence of recommendations on the treatment pathway for people who are statin intolerant and specifically the role of bempedoic acid. They also questioned if the draft treatment target applied to people who are statin-intolerant. The committee therefore made recommendations based on the technology appraisal TA694 Bempedoic acid with ezetimibe for treating primary hypercholesterolaemia or mixed dyslipidaemia and on economic modelling of people who are statin intolerant.

The committee discussed that statin intolerance is very difficult to define. The current guideline refers to trying three different statins whereas other definitions are less prescriptive, for example the presence of clinically significant adverse effects that represent an unacceptable risk to the patient or that may reduce compliance with therapy (NICE TA385 Ezetimibe for treating primary heterozygous familial and non-familial hypercholesterolaemia).

The committee discussed that the proportion of people who are unable to take statins due to side effects or adverse events is very small and therefore true statin intolerance is rare. The proportion of people reporting side effects in trials is often at a similar rate in the statin and placebo arms and evidence used to calculate the prevalence of statin intolerance does not take this into account.

The committee emphasised that statin therapy is the most effective method of reducing the risk of CVD events and that this should be the mainstay of treatment. They highlighted the importance of following recommendation 1.4.30 on strategies to use if someone reports adverse effects when taking a statin.

The committee discussed, but did not review, the evidence from the NICE technology appraisal on bempedoic acid (TA694), as well as from the CLEAR Outcomes trial that was published after TA694. They noted that people in the control arms of the trials were not on the optimal lipid lowering therapies, which could result in an over-estimation of the effectiveness of bempedoic acid. They also noted the high incidence of renal adverse events in CLEAR Outcomes. It is not clear if the observed changes to renal outcomes would have resulted in serious complications had the treatment not been stopped, or what form of monitoring would be helpful. In addition, the mean age of the people in this trial was 7 years lower than the mean age of the people with CVD in whom the drug would be offered in clinical practice. Therefore, the incidence of adverse events may be higher and a proportion are likely to be unable to tolerate bempedoic acid.

The committee discussed whether the target should be different in the statin intolerant population because of the different treatment options and associated costs. However, it was noted that this may introduce inequality regarding access to lipid-lowering treatment, and that the target at which escalation is cost effective did not change when the statin intolerant population was included in the model, largely because the prevalence of statin intolerance is relatively low. Therefore, the committee agreed that the target for people who are statin intolerant should be the same as for those who are on statin therapy, supported by the health economic sensitivity analysis. They made recommendations consistent with those in the NICE TA694 to offer ezetimibe and if this does not result in the person achieving the target or less, then other lipid lowering therapies should be offered in addition. Which therapy to offer should be discussed as part of shared decision making and depends on several different factors, for example bempedoic acid is an oral preparation whereas inclisiran, evolocumab and alirocumab are injectable formulations. The committee also highlighted that the recommendation would no longer be a cost-effective use of NHS resources if the number of people being labelled as statin intolerant and following the associated treatment pathway increased too far beyond the 9.1% estimate included in the model sensitivity analysis. Therefore, they emphasised the importance of trialling of statin therapy in line with the recommendations in this guideline before considering someone to be statin intolerant because the proportion who are truly statin intolerant is likely to be less than 9.1% and the best way to help people to achieve the target will be following the statin pathway in the majority of people. The committee noted that there is guidance from the Accelerated Access Collaborative for people who are statin intolerant.

A sensitivity analysis including people who are statin intolerant was added to the economic models which included a different escalation pathway with bempedoic acid. The sensitivity analysis found that the inclusion of this population would not affect the optimal LDL-c single target which remained 2.2 mmol/litre.

People at very high risk

The committee looked for a single LDL cholesterol target for all people with CVD and on a statin. Some people will be at higher cardiovascular risk due to risk factors other than their cholesterol levels, for example if they smoke or if they have had multiple CVD events. Potentially these people have even more to gain from lipid lowering therapy escalation. However, we do not know if a lower target would be cost-effective for these patients. We cannot be sure that the relationship between cholesterol reduction and cardiovascular outcomes, as measured by the CTTC, is the same as for the population as a whole and the gain in life expectancy could be less given their additional risk factors. These people are included in the trial and observational data inputting in to the model but were not analysed as a separate subgroup.

Other factors the committee took into account

The committee heard evidence from an expert witness; Andrew Black, vice Chair of the NICE indicator advisory committee (IAC). A written account of the testimony is provided in Appendix L. The testimony provided additional contextual information to the committee regarding what is considered when deciding on an indicator. The committee were informed of the request to develop indicators for cholesterol targets due to the existing recommendation in CG181 to aim for a 40% reduction in non-HDL cholesterol levels not being measurable in electronic clinical systems as the systems are unable to extract the two measurements to calculate the percentage, and in some cases due to baseline data being lacking even if percentages were calculated and entered manually. The lack of baseline cholesterol levels was a particular problem in secondary prevention when people may be initiated on treatment following occurrence of an acute event and the lipid level at that time not being recorded. The committee were also made aware of a draft lipid target that was put out to consultation by the IAC, with a non-HDL cholesterol value of 3.3 mmol/litre, but this was not accepted due to negative stakeholder feedback on both sides.

The committee discussed whether indicators could be based on treatment received rather than target levels, as targets could discourage treatment of people if their lipid levels are just below the target. A measure that incentivised increasing the number of people on recommended treatment may be of better value. It was noted, however, that in the case of lipid management this was problematic as the number of people on statins could be measured from electronic systems, but not those on high-intensity statins or a particular dose of statin. It was also not possible to capture whether a prescription had been filled by the person, or whether the medicines were taken and so adherence could not be captured.

The committee were also aware that NHS England had introduced an indicator for the 2023/24 Quality Outcomes Framework (QOF) in the absence of a NICE indicator. The QOF indicator included target lipid levels of lower than 2.5 mmol/litre non-HDL cholesterol and lower than 1.8 mmol/litre LDL cholesterol. The committee noted that the evidence-based treatment target demonstrated in the single target model approach developed as part of this update was broadly in line with this. Although slightly higher, the committee agreed it was the correct level to recommend in the guideline as it was based on a robust review and analysis of data. A target of 1.8 mmol/litre LDL had a cost per QALY gained that was substantially above £20,000 when compared to 2.0 mmol/litre. It would require many more people to use an injectable therapy and the opportunity cost to other NHS patients would be considerable.

The committee discussed that CG181 to date included recommendations for initial measurements for people starting on lipid lowering therapy, which stated that total cholesterol, HDL cholesterol and triglycerides should be measured, along with non-HDL cholesterol which is calculated from these. The recommendations specifically state that a fasting sample is not required, which would be needed for a robust calculation of LDL cholesterol. Although non-HDL cholesterol is more commonly used in primary care, for these reasons, the committee noted that guidance for other lipid lowering therapies includes eligibility based in part on LDL cholesterol levels. Other guidelines that have included lipid targets and the QOF include both non-HDL and LDL cholesterol. Therefore, the committee agreed that recommendations for targets needed to include both measures. They agreed the recommendation for what should be measured when starting on statin should clarify that total cholesterol, HDL cholesterol and triglyceride levels should be measured in order to calculate non-HDL cholesterol and LDL cholesterol, so as not to imply that LDL cholesterol needed to be measured directly.

Committee consensus opinion, informed by national audits, was that uptake of statins was suboptimal (there are a reasonably small number of CVD patients who are not on any statin but many who are most likely not on the highest dose/intensity that they could tolerate) even in those who had CVD. They agreed it was important to ensure that people with CVD were offered atorvastatin 80 mg, as recommended in this guideline, and if already on a statin, to ensure people were receiving the maximum tolerated high intensity statin dose. Evidence considered within this update demonstrated that the addition of ezetimibe to maximally tolerated statin would have a favourable impact on an individual’s lipid profile and would be cost-effective. Again, the committee were aware that ezetimibe prescribing at present was relatively low. The committee agreed that an increase in prescribing and uptake of ezetimibe in people with CVD could have a substantial impact on achieving lower LDL-c / non-HDL-c levels. The committee did however consider the pragmatic implications of recommending both high intensity statin therapy and ezetimibe to all patients with CVD, particularly given the limited experience and use of ezetimibe in both primary and secondary care. The implementation process would place a significant additional burden on primary care both in terms of a systematic review of all patients with CVD in order to offer ezetimibe therapy as well as the assessment of adherence, side-effects and impact of polypharmacy. In addition, many patients who are maintained on statin therapy believe their cholesterol levels to be “well controlled” and therefore the rationale for introducing another lipid lowering drug without a specific target to base this upon may lead to both confusion and reticence amongst patients. Furthermore, for those statin naive individuals with a new diagnosis of CVD, it is unclear as to whether or not introducing both high intensity statin and ezetimibe immediately would be deemed acceptable and appropriate given the potential impact on perceived adherence/tolerance of these therapies (particularly given that the majority of CVD event reduction is achieved by the high intensity statin alone). The committee therefore agreed that whilst there was persuasive cost-evidence to justify the routine use of ezetimibe (in addition to statin therapy) to all patients with established CVD, the various logistic/pragmatic factors described resulted in a consensus position that ezetimibe could be “considered” (as opposed to “offered”) to all patients with CVD, irrespective of their measured/calculated cholesterol values.

The committee also discussed that to achieve lower treatment targets, people starting from a high baseline LDL-c / non-HDL-c level, may require a number of medicines to reduce their lipid levels substantially. The committee highlighted the importance of shared decision making when discussing the risks and benefits of taking additional medicines. As noted, lipid lowering treatment options other than statins and ezetimibe are only available as subcutaneous injections. The committee noted that self-injection may pose a barrier for some people, such as people with certain cognitive or physical disabilities. However, there are support schemes available and these treatments are most commonly delivered in clinics at present, typically by practice or community nurses.

The committee agreed that the recommendations should not differ for older people or those who are frail, however, they noted that appropriateness of escalating treatment to all older/frail people should be determined by clinical judgement. Consideration of risk and benefits and factors such as polypharmacy, multimorbidity, frailty and life expectancy are particularly important in older age groups.

The RCGP and BMA position statement on use of inclisiran was also raised, which was more cautious about its use than the NICE technology appraisal recommendation. Particular concerns relating to the lack of outcome data or long-term data. Some of the committee considered that alongside the increased cost and resource implications, these were good reasons to be cautious about recommending low treatment targets that may necessitate more people to be prescribed inclisiran to achieve it, especially when the outcome data are still pending.

The committee highlighted that some groups of people are under prescribed statins for example people with peripheral artery disease and it is important that the recommendations are applied to all people with established cardiovascular disease.

1.1.10. Recommendations supported by this evidence review

This evidence review supports recommendations 1.7.1, 1.7.8 to 1.7.11 and 1.10.1 to 1.10.2.

1.1.11. References

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Appendices

Appendix A. Review protocols

A.1. Review protocol for escalation of lipid modification therapy for secondary prevention of CVD

Download PDF (258K)

A.2. Health economic review protocol

Not applicable.

Appendix B. Literature search strategies

The following literature search strategies were used for the following review:

  • In adults with CVD requiring escalation of therapy beyond statins, what is the effectiveness of lipid-lowering therapy?

The literature searches for this review are detailed below and complied with the methodology outlined in Developing NICE guidelines: the manual. 28

For more information, please see the Methodology review published as part of the accompanying documents for this guideline.

B.1. Clinical search literature search strategy

Searches were constructed using a PICO framework where population (P) terms were combined with Intervention (I) and in some cases Comparison (C) terms. Outcomes (O) are rarely used in search strategies as these concepts may not be indexed or described in the title or abstract and are therefore difficult to retrieve. Search filters were applied to the search where appropriate.

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B.2. Economic evaluation search strategy

Not applicable.

Appendix C. Effectiveness evidence study selection

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Appendix D. Effectiveness evidence

D.1. Key trial characteristics

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D.2. Evidence tables

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Appendix E. Forest plots: primary analyses

For all outcomes lower values are better, as this would represent either a greater reduction in cholesterol, a lower level of cholesterol at the study endpoint or fewer adverse events occurring.

E.1. Ezetimibe plus high or moderate intensity statin versus high or moderate statin in CVD secondary prevention

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E.2. PCSK9 monoclonal antibodies versus placebo or usual care in CVD secondary prevention

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E.3. PCSK9 monoclonal antibodies versus ezetimibe in CVD secondary prevention

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E.4. PCSK9 monoclonal antibodies plus ezetimibe versus ezetimibe in CVD secondary prevention

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E.5. Inclisiran versus placebo in CVD secondary prevention

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Appendix F. Forest plots: sensitivity analyses

F.1. Ezetimibe plus high or moderate intensity statin versus high or moderate statin in CVD secondary prevention

F.1.1. Baseline lipid levels

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F.1.2. Statin experience or intensity

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F.2. PCSK9i versus placebo or usual care in CVD secondary prevention

F.2.1. Baseline lipid levels

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F.2.2. Statin intensity

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F.3. PCSK9i versus ezetimibe in CVD secondary prevention

F.3.1. Baseline lipid levels

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F.3.2. Statin intensity

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F.4. Inclisiran versus placebo in CVD secondary prevention

F.4.1. Statin intensity

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Appendix G. GRADE tables

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Appendix H. Economic evidence study selection

Not applicable

Appendix I. Economic evidence tables

Not applicable.

Appendix J. Health economic model

See separate economic analysis report.

Appendix K. Excluded studies

K.1. Clinical studies

Table 15. Studies excluded from the clinical review.

Table 15

Studies excluded from the clinical review.

K.2. Health Economic studies

Not applicable.

Appendix L. Expert witness testimony

Andrew Black – GP, Vice Chair of the NICE Indicator Advisory Committee.

  • The below information was provided to the cardiovascular disease prevention guideline committee at the meeting on 30 March 2023. It reflects AB’s opinions and not necessarily those of the NICE Indicator Advisory Committee.

The NICE Indicator Advisory Committee (IAC) operationalise guidelines and quality standards (QS) for the NHS and wider audience. Providing indicators for cholesterol levels has been a challenge over the years. In mid-2022 NICE received a referral from NHS England to develop indicators that were suitable for the Quality and Outcomes Framework (QOF) ideally for the following QOF year (2023/24).

Indicators usually take 12–18 months to develop but the IAC was asked to develop an indicator around cholesterol targets in October 2022 for possible QOF adoption in April 2023. The particular issue was that in NICE guideline CG181 the recommendations state that a greater than 40% reduction in non-HDL cholesterol should be aimed for at 3 months for both primary and secondary prevention. However, the NICE IAC have consistently heard that this cannot be measured and extracted from electronic GP IT systems using the national General Practice Extraction Service (GPES). NHS digital cannot extract the 2 readings and calculate a percentage from that.

The IAC were asked to produce something for the 2023/24 QOF cycle. A sub-committee of the IAC was formed to develop an indicator as a holding measure, with a pragmatic threshold, pending the guidance from NICE’s clinical guideline committee. This was challenging for a number of reasons; determining an acceptable evidence-based target that would upset the least amount people, but also because there is evidence from the CVDPREVENT audit showing that recording of non-HDL cholesterol is poor. In March 2022 (using data from the previous 12 months), these data were missing in 52% of GP records, there was also a range where people were above 2.9mmol/litre and potentially 80% of practice population outside of this level (data are from academic in confidence analysis undertaken from CVDPREVENT audit for the IAC). The IAC discussed the different guidelines on the topic including the European Society Cardiology, Joint British Societies JBS 3 and British Heart Foundation recommendations, but all have slightly different targets levels.

There was discussion amongst the GPs on the IAC and cardiologists as to what they should do, taking these guidelines and relevant technology appraisals into account, as to where to put a holding threshold. The sub-committee decided on a non-HDL cholesterol level of 3.3mmol/l. Reasons for this included a feeling that a 40% reduction, based on baseline non-HDL cholesterol, would be getting towards a level of 3.3mmol/l. Furthermore, a NICE technology appraisal had used an LDL cholesterol level of 2.6mmol/litre which the subcommittee heard could be very broadly be translated into a non-HDL cholesterol of around 3.3mmol/litre for the initiation of a drug which was thought not to be primary care led, so it would be difficult to put levels below this in a QOF, where the level should be achievable by primary care alone. Another major factor was that the committee do not just take the QS or guideline and transfer recommendations directly into indicators. They take into consideration acceptability to the profession more generally and, to an extent, workload implications.

Once an indicator is agreed it goes to the NICE guidance executive to ratify and then goes to the NICE menu. NHS England and the BMA’s General Practitioners Committee (GPC) then decide if it should be included in QOF or not.

A number of indicators in the menu are not a straight carry across from the clinical guidelines. Indicators may start further away with a measured plan to bring them closer to the clinical / quality standard within 2 years, recognising the implications.

The level of 3.3 mmol/litre was put out for consultation as a proposed indicator. Response was negative on both sides. They received quite a lot of complaints saying it was too onerous, not practical and not feasible. However, there was also a strong pushback from the other side saying 3.3 mmol/litre was not hard enough and argued for a much lower level. As a result the proposed level was universally unpopular on both sides of the argument and it was difficult for the committee to justify a level without a guideline behind it. It was therefore decided to wait for the guideline committee to consider this issue. It is hoped the indicator will be in the system for next year after the guideline has published.

It was noted that NHS England has decided to create its own indicator for the 2023/24 QOF outside of the NICE process with a non-HDL cholesterol level of 2.5mmol/l. From the IAC discussions there was a steer from cardiologists that 2.5mmol/litre was becoming the more recognised standard, based on the accelerated access collaborative guidance, but the IAC did not proceed with this value as the proposed NICE indicator because of the lack of assurance that the methodology or health economics behind were as robust as would be expected for a NICE standard.

The indicator is: Percentage of patients on the QOF Coronary Heart Disease, Peripheral Arterial Disease, or Stroke/TIA Register, who have a recording of non-HDL cholesterol in the preceding 12 months that is lower than 2.5mmol/l, or where non-HDL cholesterol is not recorded a recording of LDL cholesterol in the preceding 12 months that is lower than 1.8mmol/l.

This has a points ratio of 16, with a threshold of 20–35% of patients.

The IAC will still create an indicator based on the NICE guideline for the NICE menu. There can be more acceptance of a NICE badged indicator because it is evidence based and will have gone through some degree of piloting and consultation. The GPC and other interested parties tend to trust indicators produced by NICE for QOF as being of higher standard than those that come through other routes.