| Years before meeting other criteria for treatment | Risk threshold | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Age 40 | Age 50 | Age 60 | Age 70 | Age 75 | |
| MALES | |||||
| 1 | 4.2% | 4.1% | 6.3% | 10.6% | 11.8% |
| 5 | 3.5% | 3.5% | 5.6% | 10.3% | 11.6% |
| 10 | 2.6% | 2.7% | 4.8% | - | - |
| 20 | 1.3% | 1.9% | - | - | - |
| Never (base case) | 0.7% | 1.8% | 5.0% | 9.7% | 11.4% |
| Minimum risk level | 1.5% | 4.0% | 8.5% | 16.4% | 22.3% |
| FEMALES | |||||
| 1 | 2.6% | 2.8% | 4.8% | 7.5% | 8.1% |
| 5 | 2.3% | 2.6% | 4.6% | 7.6% | 8.1% |
| 10 | 2.0% | 2.3% | 4.5% | - | - |
| 20 | 1.6% | 2.6% | - | - | - |
| Never (base case) | 1.7% | 2.8% | 4.9% | 7.5% | 8.5% |
| Minimum risk level | 0.9% | 2.3% | 5.3% | 11.7% | 17.0% |
The columns show the risk thresholds for the different age groups. The rows show the differential treatment durations tested, and also the results of the base case analysis for each age group (that is, where a lifetime of treatment was compared to a lifetime of no treatment). Additionally the minimum risk values from the QRISK2 are also presented with orange text. Cells that are orange show where it is cost effective to treat everyone at that age because the risk threshold the model predicted is lower than the minimum risk level.
From: Evidence review for initiating treatment
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