Evidence review for decompressive hemicraniectomy
Evidence review H
NICE Guideline, No. 128
Authors
National Guideline Centre (UK).1. Decompressive hemicraniectomy
1.1. Review question: Which patients should be referred for decompressive hemicraniectomy?
1.2. Introduction
In 2-8% of patients with anterior circulation ischaemic stroke (due to occlusion of the internal carotid, middle cerebral artery, anterior cerebral artery, or a combination of these) large-volume brain infarction causes space-occupying brain swelling (“malignant middle cerebral artery syndrome”) which, untreated, has a mortality of about 80%. Hemicraniectomy (neurosurgical removal of part of the skull to reduce intracerebral pressure) is life-saving. The previous NICE guideline CG68 (2008) recommends referring patients under the age of 60 with a severe stroke syndrome, reduced level of consciousness and a CT-defined infarct of at least 50% of the middle cerebral artery territory, for consideration of hemicraniectomy.
There remains uncertainty about the net clinical benefit of hemicraniectomy, especially in people with stroke over the age of 60, because it might increase the number of stroke survivors with serious disability to a greater extent than in younger people. Since the last guideline was published, the DESTINY-II randomised trial has reported the effect of hemicraniectomy in patients over the age of 60 years. This review therefore aimed to establish which patients should be referred for decompressive hemicraniectomy, with a focus on patient age.
1.3. PICO table
For full details see the review protocol in appendix A.
Table 1
PICO characteristics of review question.
1.4. Methods and process
This evidence review was developed using the methods and process described in Developing NICE guidelines: the manual.7 Methods specific to this review question are described in the review protocol in appendix A.
Declarations of interest were recorded according to NICE’s 2014 conflicts of interest policy.
1.5. Clinical evidence
1.5.1. Included studies
Eight studies were included in the review;6, 12, 17, 21, 22, 40, 46, 51 these are summarised in Table 2 and Table 3) below. Evidence from these studies is summarised in the clinical evidence summary below (Table 4).
All the studies are open labelled randomised controlled trials (RCTs), with some having a blinded outcome evaluation (HAMLET17, HeADDFIRST12, Zhao51). It is noted that although open labelled RCTs are the highest quality of study design suitable for these trials, outcomes have been downgraded due to no blinding of patient or care giver and the outcome assessor not being blinded to interventions or the key confounders.
The studies were stratified according to mean or median age, with three being included in the strata for aged over 60 years. The trial by Slezins40 was downgraded for indirectness due to the age range being 49 to 81 years and not having subgroup analysis of those aged over 60. This review extracted just the subgroup analysis results of those aged over 60 from the trial by Zhao51, as the median overall age for the population was over 60.
A Cochrane review8 was identified and all the relevant references have been checked and included where appropriate.
See also the study selection flow chart in appendix C, study evidence tables in appendix D, forest plots in appendix E and GRADE tables in appendix H.
1.5.2. Excluded studies
See the excluded studies list in appendix H.
1.5.3. Summary of clinical studies included in the evidence review
Table 2
Summary of studies included in the evidence review for those aged under 60 years.
Table 3
Summary of studies included in the evidence review for those aged over 60 years.
See appendix D for full evidence tables.
1.5.4. Quality assessment of clinical studies included in the evidence review
Table 4
Clinical evidence summary: Decompressive hemicraniectomy compared to medical treatment for those aged under 60 years.
Table 5
Clinical evidence summary: Decompressive hemicraniectomy compared to medical treatment for those over 60 years.
See appendix F for full GRADE tables.
1.6. Economic evidence
1.6.1. Included studies
One health economic study was identified with the relevant comparison and has been included in this review.18 This is summarised in the health economic evidence profile below (Table 6) and the health economic evidence table in appendix I.
1.6.2. Excluded studies
No health economic studies that were relevant to this question were excluded due to assessment of limited applicability or methodological limitations.
See also the health economic study selection flow chart in appendix G.
1.6.3. Summary of studies included in the economic evidence review
Table 6
Health economic evidence profile: surgical decompression versus best medical treatment.
1.6.4. Unit costs
Table 7
UK costs of non-elective long stay decompressive hemicraniectomy.
1.7. Resource costs
The committee has made a recommendation based on this review (see section Error! R eference source not found.) that decompressive hemicraniectomy should be ‘considered’. The recommendation is not expected to have a substantial impact on resources to the NHS in England.
The committee noted that where this recommendation is implemented there would be additional costs relating to the increase in the population eligible for decompressive hemicraniectomy compared to current practice. However, the committee agreed that this would not necessarily lead to significantly more people undergoing surgery compared with current practice; not all people eligible for decompressive hemicraneictomy ultimately go on to have surgery following discussions between carers and physicians. The committee noted that more informed discussion of the outcomes following surgery might reduce the uptake of surgery. In addition, the recommendation on endovascular therapy made elsewhere as part of this guideline update (see evidence review D) will increase the population eligible for and provision of endovascular therapy. This is likely to decrease the population referred for decompressive hemicraniectomy.
1.8. Evidence statements
1.8.1. Clinical evidence statements
1.8.1.1. Aged under 60 years
- There was a clinically important benefit of surgery compared to standard care for reduced mortality at 30 days (1 study; n=32; Moderate quality), 6 months (3 studies; n=86; Moderate quality) and 1 year (3 studies; n=134; High quality) and for achieving mRS 0-3 at 6 months (4 studies; n=118; Very Low quality) and 1 year (3 studies; n=134; Low quality).
- There was no clinically important difference for the SF-36 mental summary score or VAS but a clinically important harm of surgery for the SF-36 physical summary scale (1 study; n=35; Very Low and Low quality).
1.8.1.2. Aged over 60 years
- There was a clinically important benefit of surgery compared to standard care for reduced mortality at 6 months (1 study; n=29; Moderate quality) and 1 year (3 studies; n=162; Moderate quality) and for achieving mRS 0-3 at 1 year (3 studies; n=165; Very Low quality) but the benefit did not reach clinical significance at 6 months (2 studies; n=141; Very Low quality).
- Evidence from 1 study in 100 people showed a clinically important benefit of surgery for quality of life at 1 year as measured by the EQ-5D index scale and VAS score (Low quality).
1.8.2. Health economic evidence statements
- One cost-utility analysis found that decompressive surgery was not cost effective compared with best medical treatment (ICER: £49,224 per QALY gained). This analysis was assessed as partially applicable with potentially serious limitations.
1.9. The committee’s discussion of the evidence
1.9.1. Interpreting the evidence
1.9.1.1. The outcomes that matter most
The critical outcomes identified for this review were functional outcome (modified Rankin Scale) and mortality at 90 days and 1 year. Both outcomes were considered to be crucial in decision making. Important outcomes included health and social related quality of life (EQ-5D).
Note that for this review a good functional outcome was defined as a score of 0, 1, 2 or 3 on the mRS because in this population of very severe stroke cases achieving an mRS 3 was agreed to be likely to represent a ‘good’ outcome compared to the expected clinical outcome without surgery.
1.9.1.2. The quality of the evidence
Eight RCTs were included in this review, five being categorised into the under 60 years and three in the over 60 years age category. Trials were categorised according to the age range used for their inclusion criteria, where possible, or using the median age and IQR to determine whether the majority of participants were over or under 60 years of age. Some outcomes were only reported by one trial with few participants for each age category, resulting in imprecise effect estimates. Therefore, the committee were not confident that the outcome reflected the true effect. The trials were all open labelled, which meant patients, care givers and outcome assessors were not blinded to the intervention. Three studies however, had a blinded outcome evaluation. As a result, subjective outcomes (mRS and quality of life) were downgraded for risk of bias. Some results for these outcomes were downgraded further if they showed imprecision through estimates of effect having wide confidence intervals. Additionally one study in the over 60 category was further downgraded for an indirect population.
Evidence ranged from very low to high quality, with the majority of evidence rated as low and moderate quality. The mortality evidence was of high and moderate quality, while the functional outcome data were low and very low quality.
A published cost utility analysis with a Dutch societal perspective was included in the health economic review and was assessed as partially applicable with potentially serious limitations.
1.9.1.3. Benefits and harms
The evidence showed a clear mortality benefit in the short and longer term in those aged both over and under 60 years when decompressive hemicraniectomy is performed compared to medical treatment alone.
Also, there was a clinically important benefit of surgery for functional outcome (defined as mRS score 0-3) at 6 months and 1 year in those aged under 60 years. However, the committee noted that the benefit was questionable because overall functional outcome was poor. When surgery is performed it results in more patients surviving, but many have poor functional outcomes. To some extent, there is a trade off between reduced mortality but at the expense of overall poor functional outcome. This may be acceptable to a significant proportion of patients. In those aged over 60 years this benefit in the number achieving a ‘good’ functional outcome of 0-3 on the mRS scale was not seen at 6 months follow-up, although a modest clinical benefit was reported at 1 year.
Quality of life (EQ-5D and SF-36) data were not widely reported and ranged from showing a clinically important benefit of surgery in 1 study of the over 60s, to a clinically important harm of surgery for the physical component score but no clinical difference for the mental summary score or the overall visual analogue score in 1 study in the under 60s. Hemicraniectomy inevitably leads to more people surviving with disability, whereby survivors may have a low quality of life. The committee noted that judging quality of life is variable, subjective and emotionally charged, and perspectives might differ greatly between patients and carers.
Overall there is good clinical evidence for the benefit of surgery in regards to mortality, with some supporting evidence of improved functional outcomes and variability in the reported impact on quality of life, which was low in both the treated and untreated groups.
The committee noted that although some of the trials in those aged under 60 years included people who had surgery as long as 96 hours after symptom onset, the benefits in terms of reduced mortality and improved functional outcome appeared to be largely driven by studies which only allowed surgery up to a maximum of 48 hours after onset. Therefore, it was agreed that the reference to surgery being performed within 48 hours of onset should be retained from the original recommendations.
The committee also reviewed the criteria used to determine eligibility for hemicraniectomy from CG68. It was agreed that these were still appropriate and reflect the populations included in the studies used to inform the new recommendations.
The decision to have surgery is very individual and some patients may choose not to have surgery if there is a risk of severe disability, whereas others may wish to go ahead based on mortality benefit alone. For this reason the committee chose to leave the recommendation as a ‘consider’ so that it remained an option for management following discussion with suitable patients and their carers. They also recommended discussion about the risks and benefits of surgery. The committee noted that patients would not be able to be involved at the time because of the severity of the stroke, so the family members or carers would be responsible for making the decision. In deciding whether to opt for surgery considerations should include individual wishes and preferences and the pre-stroke functional status, as surgery would not be appropriate for people with severe disability before stroke. The high likelihood of residual moderate or severe disability after surgery should be made clear.
1.9.2. Cost effectiveness and resource use
The results of a published cost utility analysis with a Dutch societal perspective found that decompressive surgery is not cost effective compared with best medical treatment in adults aged 60 or younger with space-occupying hemispheric infarction.18 The study estimated the lifetime incremental cost effectiveness ratio to be £49,224 per quality adjusted life year gained. At three years, decompressive surgery had a 2% likelihood of being cost effective at an £66,961 (€80,000) per QALY gained willingness to pay threshold. Although this economic evidence did not support decompressive hemicraniectomy the committee was not confident that it was sufficiently robust to make a strong recommendation not to offer decompressive hemicraniectomy, due to its partial applicability and potentially serious limitations.
To aid the committee’s discussion of the economic evidence, the most appropriate UK NHS reference costs corresponding to the unit costs used in the study were combined with the resource usage over three years reported for the within-trial phase of the study. This allowed calculation of a three-year incremental cost for surgical decompression over best medical treatment of £90,886. The study reported an incremental QALY difference of 1.0 QALYs over the three year within-trial period. Using the estimate of UK incremental costs, the three year ICER generated is £90,886 per QALY gained. The lifetime incremental QALY difference reported in the study was 4.2 QALYs. At a £20,000 per QALY gained willingness to pay threshold, the lifetime incremental cost of surgical decompression would need to be <£84,000 to be considered cost effective. As this value is less than the three year incremental cost, this scenario is highly unlikely as there are additional continuing incremental costs after three years. However,the committee expressed concerns about some of the resource usage reported in the study. Zero days in the nursing home were reported in the ‘best medical treatment’ arm, which the committee considered highly unlikely to be representative of this population and therefore of very limited applicability to the UK setting. Higher nursing home resource usage in the ‘best medical treatment’ arm would increase the total cost of ‘best medical treatment’ and reduce the incremental cost difference between ‘best medical treatment’ and ‘decompressive hemicraniectomy’. This would result in a lower incremental cost effectiveness ratio. Although there still remains uncertainty regarding the cost effectiveness of decompressive hemicraniectomy, undertaking a de novo analysis from a UK perspective was not considered likely to reduce this uncertainty, as the resource use reported in the identified study still remains the only published resource use data, therefore a new model would be based on tenuous assumptions.
In addition, the committee noted that in the under 60 population, the only quality of life data available were from the HAMLET trial, on which the Dutch societal cost utility analysis was based. For the outcome ‘functional outcome score 0-3 mRS at 1 year’, the HAMLET trial has a much smaller effect size than in the DESTINY and DECIMAL trials, which show a trend towards benefit of decompressive hemicraniectomy. Quality of life reported by the HAMLET trial might therefore be expected to be lower than in the other trials. If quality of life data were available from all the trials, the ICER might be improved. Overall, the clinical evidence identified a modest improvement in functional outcome which the committee deemed was clinically important. Despite this slight improvement, functional outcome is poor in this population. Regardless of the limited applicability of the one identified economic study, decompressive hemicraniectomy significantly reduces mortality, while most of the survivors have significant neurological impairment and disability which limits their functional ability. Many people will need ongoing and costly long term nursing care. The committee agreed that considerations other than cost effectiveness were relevant to this issue. The clear mortality benefit of decompressive hemicraniectomy was expected to be important to many people with stroke, their families, and carers, irrespective of the poor functional outcomes of surgery. The committee discussed that the decision to undergo surgery warrants careful discussion between stroke physicians, surgeons, people with stroke and their families and carers. These shared decisions should be made on a case by case basis.
No health economic evidence was identified that considered the cost effectiveness of decompressive hemicraniectomy in people aged over 60. In the over 60 population, quality of life measured on the EQ-5D index and visual analogue scales was reported at 1 year by the DESTINY II trial. Both measures showed an improved quality of life for people undergoing decompressive hemicraniectomy compared with best medical treatment, though baseline quality of life was low. The clinical evidence did not show a differential effect between the over 60 and under 60 population and so, for equity reasons, the restriction of the population eligible for decompressive hemicraniectomy to those under 60 years of age is not supported. Due to the poor, though slightly improved functional outcomes after the surgery, the decision regarding whether a person should have a decompressive hemicraniectomy is a shared decision, to be made in conjunction with individuals, families and carers. In current practice, around 5% of people with stroke undergo decompressive hemicraniectomy. The committee acknowledged that extending the population eligible for surgery is a change to current practice, noting that people aged over 60 will generally take longer to recover from surgery and may therefore accrue higher rehabilitation costs. Without an age cut off, other factors will still be taken into consideration when determining whether a person is suitable for surgery. The committee agreed that increasing the population eligible for decompressive hemicraniectomy would not necessarily lead to significantly more people undergoing surgery; not all people eligible for decompressive hemicraneictomy ultimately go on to have surgery following discussions between carers and physicians. The committee noted that more informed discussion of the outcomes following surgery might reduce the uptake of surgery. In addition, the recommendation on endovascular therapy made elsewhere as part of this guideline update (see evidence review D) will increase the population eligible for endovascuar therapy and increase provision of endovascular therapy. This is likely to decrease the population referred for decompressive hemicraniectomy. The committee therefore does not expect this recommendation to have a substantial resource impact on the NHS in England.
In conclusion, the committee thought that the cost effectiveness of decompressive hemicraniectomy remains uncertain. The committee recommended that decompressive hemicraniectomy be considered for some patients, following shared decision making between physicians, surgeons, families and carers. This recommendation was made based on consideration of the clear mortality benefit of decompressive hemicraniectomy, which the committee thought would be important to a significant proportion of the population, irrespective of the overall limited improvement in functional outcome following surgery.
1.9.3. Other factors the committee took into account
The evidence did not support the use of an age cut-off for surgery and therefore the age cut-off had been removed from the recommendation. The committee considered that the patients’ pre-morbid state was much more relevant than age as a marker of potential outcome with and without surgery that would help decision making.
The committee discussed that, aside from removing the age cut-off, the weight of evidence was not strong enough either way to change the recommendation from consider.
It was noted that deciding to have surgery is a very difficult decision and patients should be provided with data of functional outcomes to guide their decision. The committee decided that patients or their carers should be given specific information on the risks and benefits in terms of their functional outcomes and risk of mortality. The decision should be made between the patient, their carers and medical or surgical team.
The committee took into account that the definition of a ‘good’ functional outcome will vary on an individual patient basis, as while one person might prefer to be alive with a functional score of 5, another might think this is an unacceptable state, potentially worse than death.
The committee were also aware of some limited evidence that decompressive hemicraniectomy may be performed beyond 48 hours.
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Appendices
Appendix A. Review protocols
Appendix B. Literature search strategies
The literature searches for this review are detailed below and complied with the methodology outlined in Developing NICE guidelines: the manual 2014, updated 2017 https://www.nice.org.uk/guidance/pmg20/resources/developing-nice-guidelines-the-manual-pdf-72286708700869
For more detailed information, please see the Methodology Review.
B.1. Clinical search literature search strategy
Searches were constructed using a PICO framework where population (P) terms were combined with Intervention (I) and in some cases Comparison (C) terms. Outcomes (O) are rarely used in search strategies for interventions as these concepts may not be well described in title, abstract or indexes and therefore difficult to retrieve. Search filters were applied to the search where appropriate.
B.2. Health Economics literature search strategy
Health economic evidence was identified by conducting a broad search relating to the stroke population in NHS Economic Evaluation Database (NHS EED – this ceased to be updated after March 2015) and the Health Technology Assessment database (HTA) with no date restrictions. NHS EED and HTA databases are hosted by the Centre for Research and Dissemination (CRD). Additional searches were run on Medline and Embase for health economics.
Appendix C. Clinical evidence selection
Figure 1. Flow chart of clinical study selection for the review of decompressive hemicraniectomy
Appendix D. Clinical evidence tables
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Appendix E. Forest plots and ordinal shift graphs
E.1. Decompressive hemicraniectomy vs medical treatment in those under 60 years
Figure 1. Mortality at 30 days
Figure 2. Mortality at 6 months
Figure 4. Functional outcomes, score of 0-3 on mRS scale at 6 months
Figure 5. Functional outcomes, score of 0-3 on mRS scale at 1 year
Figure 6. Quality of life, SF-36 at 1 year (range: 0-100, high is good outcome)
E.2. Decompressive hemicraniectomy vs medical treatment in those over 60 years
Figure 9. Functional outcomes, mRS 0-3 at 6 months
E.3. Ordinal shift analysis for decompressive hemicraniectomy vs medical treatment
Appendix F. GRADE tables
Appendix G. Health economic evidence selection
Figure 15. Flow chart of health economic study selection for the guideline
Appendix H. Excluded studies
H.1. Excluded clinical studies
Appendix I. Health economic evidence tables
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FINAL
Intervention evidence review
This evidence review was developed by the National Guideline Centre
Disclaimer: The recommendations in this guideline represent the view of NICE, arrived at after careful consideration of the evidence available. When exercising their judgement, professionals are expected to take this guideline fully into account, alongside the individual needs, preferences and values of their patients or service users. The recommendations in this guideline are not mandatory and the guideline does not override the responsibility of healthcare professionals to make decisions appropriate to the circumstances of the individual patient, in consultation with the patient and/or their carer or guardian.
Local commissioners and/or providers have a responsibility to enable the guideline to be applied when individual health professionals and their patients or service users wish to use it. They should do so in the context of local and national priorities for funding and developing services, and in light of their duties to have due regard to the need to eliminate unlawful discrimination, to advance equality of opportunity and to reduce health inequalities. Nothing in this guideline should be interpreted in a way that would be inconsistent with compliance with those duties.
NICE guidelines cover health and care in England. Decisions on how they apply in other UK countries are made by ministers in the Welsh Government, Scottish Government, and Northern Ireland Executive. All NICE guidance is subject to regular review and may be updated or withdrawn.