Evidence review for diagnostic tests for acute diverticulitis
Evidence review G
NICE Guideline, No. 147
Authors
National Guideline Centre (UK).1. Diagnosis of acute diverticulitis
1.1. Review question: For people with suspected acute diverticulitis who are not referred for urgent hospital assessment, which investigations are clinically and cost effective (for example full blood count, C-reactive protein (CRP), endoscopy, CT and MRI) in the diagnosis and assessment of acute diverticulitis during and after the acute episode?
1.1.1. Introduction
For people presenting with suspected acute diverticulitis the majority can be managed in primary care. For this management strategy to be safe and effective there should be guidance on the investigations that need to be performed to support the diagnosis and assess the severity of the acute diverticulitis.
1.2. Review question: For people with suspected acute diverticulitis who are referred for urgent hospital assessment, which investigations are clinically and cost effective (for example full blood count, C-reactive protein (CRP), endoscopy, CT and MRI) in the diagnosis and assessment of acute diverticulitis during and after the acute episode?
1.2.1. Introduction
It is important to identify people with suspected acute diverticulitis early in order to identify who requires medical treatment such as antibiotics or to identify complications that may require surgical intervention. Complications include purulent peritonitis, uncontrolled sepsis, fistula and obstruction. The early use of diagnostic imaging tests may reduce unnecessary treatments or improve patient outcomes through early appropriate intervention. The purpose of this review is to identify the most clinically and cost effective strategies.
1.3. PICO table
For full details see the review protocol in appendix A.
Table 1
PICO characteristics of diagnostic accuracy review question.
Table 2
PICO characteristics of diagnostic test and treat review question.
1.4. Clinical evidence
1.4.1. Included studies
A search was conducted for prospective and retrospective cohort studies assessing the diagnostic accuracy of tests to identify whether the condition is present (as indicated by the reference standard CT scan) in people under investigation for acute diverticulitis.
Five studies were included in the review on adults with suspected acute diverticulitis who are referred for urgent hospital assessment, during and after the acute episode (3.3)5, 6, 36 59, 74; these are summarised in Table 2 below. Evidence from these studies is summarised in the clinical evidence summary below (Table 3).
No studies were identified for the review on adults with suspected acute diverticulitis who are not referred for urgent hospital assessment, during and after the acute episode (3.2).
No diagnostic RCTs were identified for this review.
See also the study selection flow chart in appendix C and study evidence tables in appendix D.
1.4.2. Excluded studies
See the excluded studies list in appendix H.
1.4.3. Summary of clinical studies included in the evidence review
Table 3
Summary of studies included in the evidence review.
See appendix D for full evidence tables.
1.4.4. Quality assessment of clinical studies included in the evidence review
Table 4
Clinical evidence summary: diagnostic test accuracy for index test computed tomography.
Table 5
Clinical evidence summary: diagnostic test accuracy for index test ultrasound.
Table 6
Clinical evidence summary: diagnostic test accuracy for index test full blood test.
Table 7
Clinical evidence summary: diagnostic test accuracy for index test white blood cell count.
Table 8
Clinical evidence summary: diagnostic test accuracy for index test C - reactive protein.
1.5. Economic evidence
1.5.1. Included studies
No relevant health economic studies were identified.
1.5.2. Excluded studies
No health economic studies that were relevant to these questions were excluded due to assessment of limited applicability or methodological limitations.
See also the health economic study selection flow chart in appendix E.
1.5.3. Health economic modelling
An original cost analysis was conducted that compared for people with suspected severe or complicated diverticulitis:
- IV antibiotics (5 days) and no CT
- Initial IV antibiotics (2 days) and CT. Then, if uncomplicated, switch to oral antibiotics, monitor in-hospital for one day and then discharge with oral antibiotics
- Initial IV antibiotics (2 days) and CT. Then discharge with no antibiotics if uncomplicated.
Full details of the analysis can be found in a separate report (Appendix 1 of the guideline).The cost analysis employed a simple decision tree that differentiated patients according to their pathology and whether or not they were readmitted.
Model inputs were sourced as follows:
- Prevalence of complicated diverticulitis – a cohort of 3,222 patients admitted with diverticulitis.9
- Readmission rates – a trial of 528 patients with uncomplicated diverticulitis randomised to receive oral antibiotics or no antibiotics24
- Unit costs of hospitalisation and imaging – NHS reference costs25
Table 9
Base case analysis results.
CT and then oral antibiotics was the lowest cost strategy, followed by ‘CT and then no antibiotics’ - Table 9. This finding was robust to sensitivity analysis, with the cost savings compared with continued intravenous therapy ranging from £150 to £688 per patient. The only scenario that ‘CT and then no antibiotics’ was lowest cost was when we used a lower cost of rehospitalisation. The only time that the IV antibiotics strategy was lowest cost was when we used a high estimate of the cost of readmission and made the extreme assumption that there would be no readmissions in the IV antibiotics arm.
1.5.4. Unit costs
The committee considered the direct access and outpatient unit costs of the investigations under consideration, noting that many of the investigations have high unit costs. The current national average direct access cost of a post-contrast CT scan is £106, while diagnostic colonoscopy as a day case currently costs £548 and as a gastroenterology outpatient costs £277. By contrast, the current unit costs of direct access pathology services are £3 for haematology (full blood count) and £1.13 for clinical biochemistry (C-reactive protein).
Table 10
UK costs of outpatient diagnostic tests.
Table 11
UK costs of direct access (GP referral) diagnostic tests.
1.6. Evidence statements
1.6.1. Clinical evidence statements
Review for people with suspected acute diverticulitis who are not referred for urgent hospital assessment : No published evidence was identified for this review.
Review For people with suspected acute diverticulitis who are not referred for urgent hospital assessment: Five studies that evaluated 4 diagnostic tests for identifying and assessing acute diverticulitis were included in the review. The quality of evidence ranged from Moderate to Low quality. Evidence was identified for the following diagnostic tests CT, ultrasound, full blood test and CRP, of which good sensitivity of 98% was identified for CT from 1 study (n=136), 95% for full blood from 1 study (n=30) and 83% for ultrasound within a subgroup with uncomplicated acute diverticulitis from 1 study(n=94). One study (n=833) demonstrated a good AUC value of 0.83 (0.80–0.86) for CRP. However, evidence obtained from one other included study reported a lower specificity value of 65% for CT (n=30) and the specificity of ultrasound in a subgroup with complicated acute diverticulitis was much lower (23% specificity) compared with the uncomplicated acute diverticulitis subgroup. Similarly, a lower AUC value of 0.63 (0.57–0.69) was reported by another study (n=307) assessing CRP. Additionally, two studies reported relatively low AUC values of 0.61 (0.54–0.65; n=307) and 0.59 (0.53–0.65; n=833) for leukocyte count as a diagnostic test.
1.6.2. Health economic evidence statements
- An original cost analysis found that ‘CT then discharge with oral antibiotics if uncomplicated’ was cost saving for people with suspected severe or complicated diverticulitis compared to both
- ‘No CT and intravenous antibiotics’; and
- ‘CT then discharge with no antibiotics if uncomplicated’
This was rated as partially applicable with minor limitations.
1.7. The committee’s discussion of the evidence
1.7.1. Interpreting the evidence
1.7.1.1. The diagnostic measures that matter most
Diagnostic accuracy for tests to diagnose acute diverticulitis was the outcome for this review. Sensitivity was considered important by the committee for this review question because a clinical decision rule should select all patients with suspected acute diverticulitis for conservative therapy and possible surgery. The consequences of missing a patient with acute diverticulitis would have serious health implications, and could result in an increased length of hospital stay during acute episodes.
No evidence was identified for the diagnostic accuracy of endoscopy, MRI, ultrasound, or CT colonoscopy.
1.7.1.2. The quality of the evidence
The quality of evidence ranged from very low to low. This was mostly due to flow and timing bias, resulting in a high risk of bias rating.
Outcomes were downgraded if there was an inappropriate amount of time between the reference test and the index test, such as when a person received a CT diagnosis and then underwent surgery at a later date following secondary complications. Outcomes were also downgraded where they included an indirect population or reported an indirect outcome, including where the reference standard was not consistent across the study population.
1.7.1.3. Benefits and harms
The committee considered the trade-off between using a less costly clinical test such as full blood count and CRP test to inform the decision making and selection of patients for further investigation for acute diverticulitis (and therefore to minimize the impact of a false negative result) and also to reduce radiation risk of imaging patients who do not have any inflammation. Inflammatory markers, commonly the White Blood Cell (WBC) count and C-Reactive Protein (CRP) level, are frequently employed to assist in diagnosing diverticulitis and its complications.
The committee also considered the accuracy and utility of a CT scan to correctly diagnose acute diverticulitis. The committee acknowledged that the one study included in this review assessing the diagnostic accuracy of CT scan showed a high sensitivity and positive predictive value. It was noted that the population from this study were those who were more severely unwell and required surgery, meaning the diagnosis in this population would likely be more clear-cut than would be typical in people with acute diverticulitis.
The committee agreed that CT is recognised as the most effective tool at diagnosing acute diverticulitis, particularly given its capacity to be performed during or shortly after an acute episode. The committee highlighted that endoscopy and CT colonoscopy should not be performed until ~6–8 weeks after an acute episode to prevent risk of perforation of the inflamed tissue and that there was evidence that in the setting of a high quality CT scan this may not be required. CT evaluates the severity and extent of disease and indicates what further treatment is required. Importantly its rules out other causes of the symptoms.
The committee also considered the radiation risks associated with CT scans. Given the condition’s prevalence in older people, the committee felt the increased risk of cancer with radiation exposure was negligible. The committee did agree that pregnant women should not be exposed to the radiation from CT scans, and so should be offered alternative methods of diagnosis such as MRI or ultrasound.
1.7.2. Cost effectiveness and resource use
Diagnostic pathway by setting
The proportion of people requiring emergency surgery for acute diverticulitis is small and the majority of people are managed conservatively with or without antibiotics.
No clinical or economic evidence was identified for investigations in the primary care setting. The committee felt that current practice is to prescribe a course of oral antibiotics to those who do not require urgent referral for hospital assessment or sometimes there may be a period of watchful waiting before an antibiotic is prescribed. Where no improvement is seen or the condition deteriorates, the person with suspected acute diverticulitis is reassessed and considered for referral to secondary care.
No health economic evidence was identified for investigations for acute diverticulitis in people who are urgently referred for hospital assessment. In the absence of economic evidence, the low to very low quality clinical evidence for CT, full blood count and C-reactive protein was interpreted alongside the unit costs of the interventions to enable the committee to make qualitative judgements of cost effectiveness.
Imaging
In Chapter H, the committee concluded switching from intravenous to less expensive oral antibiotics and early discharge is safe for people with uncomplicated diverticulitis.
An original cost analysis was conducted that compared for people with suspected severe or complicated diverticulitis
- IV antibiotics and no CT
- Initial IV antibiotics and CT. Then discharge with oral antibiotics if uncomplicated
- Initial IV antibiotics and CT. Then discharge with no antibiotics if uncomplicated
The lowest cost strategy was ‘CT and then discharge with oral antibiotics if uncomplicated’ due to the reduced hospital stay and other cost savings. Discharging with no antibiotics was more costly because of the increased rehospitalisation observed in the clinical review (albeit not statistically significant). These results were robust to sensitivity analysis.
Therefore the committee recommended that patients should receive a CT, as it is diagnostic and likely to be cost saving.
The committee noted that obtaining CT scans during the acute episode might also reduce the number of colonoscopies carried out downstream, which would mean even greater cost savings. The model did not include the cost of antimicrobial resistance but this too would favour the use of CT to step down or cease antibiotics use.
In current practice, the committee believe that about 60% of 15,000 emergency admissions for acute diverticulitis currently receive CT scans. Obtaining CT scans in this population is currently dependent on availability, time of day and severity of the condition. In recommending that CT scans be offered for suspected acute diverticulitis, the committee acknowledged that there might be a significant resource impact, as it anticipates an increase in the number of people requiring scans. However, the cost analysis suggests that this would be more than offset by cost savings from reduced nurse time and hospital bed days.
No clinical or economic evidence was identified for MRI or ultrasound. The committee noted that the use of MRI and ultrasound is current practice only in pregnancy or if contrast CT is contraindicated. Imaging and oral antibiotics was still cost saving when we assumed the cost of an MRI in the analysis instead of CT.
Blood tests
The committee believes that the measurement of electrolytes and a full blood count is current practice and that C-reactive protein is regularly carried out, but is not yet universal. In the hospital setting, the results of the tests can be available after around an hour. No evidence was identified which described the effectiveness and cost effectiveness of white blood cell count and C-reactive protein as risk stratification tools to determine whether CT scans should be carried out. However, the committee felt that the cost of these tests is small and normal results can mean that a CT scan is not needed and therefore it likely that these tests are cost effective.
1.7.3. Other factors the committee took into account
The committee noted that initial urea and electrolyte tests at admission should be carried out ahead of any anticipated CT to assess renal function and guide CT with relation to user needs. Subsequent non-contrast CT can be carried out if necessary.
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Appendices
Appendix A. Review protocols
Table 12. Review protocol: diagnosis of acute diverticulitis
Table 13. Review protocol: diagnosis of acute diverticulitis
Appendix B. Literature search strategies
The literature searches for this review are detailed below and complied with the methodology outlined in Developing NICE guidelines: the manual 2014, updated 2017
For more detailed information, please see the Methodology Review.
B.1. Clinical search literature search strategy
Searches were constructed using a PICO framework where population (P) terms were combined with Intervention (I) and in some cases Comparison (C) terms. Outcomes (O) are rarely used in search strategies for interventions as these concepts may not be well described in title, abstract or indexes and therefore difficult to retrieve. Search filters were applied to the search where appropriate.
Table 15. Database date parameters and filters used
Table 16. Medline (Ovid) search terms
B.2. Health Economics literature search strategy
Health economic evidence was identified by conducting a broad search relating to Diverticular Disease population in NHS Economic Evaluation Database (NHS EED – this ceased to be updated after March 2015) and the Health Technology Assessment database (HTA) with no date restrictions. NHS EED and HTA databases are hosted by the Centre for Research and Dissemination (CRD). Additional searches were run on Medline and Embase for health economics, economic modelling and quality of life studies.
Table 19. Database date parameters and filters used
Table 20. Medline (Ovid) search terms
Appendix C. Clinical evidence selection
Appendix D. Clinical evidence tables
Table 23. Clinical evidence tables (PDF, 242K)
Appendix E. Health economic evidence selection
Figure 2. Flow chart of health economic study selection for the guideline
Appendix F. Excluded studies
F.1. Excluded clinical studies
Final
Diagnostic evidence review
This evidence review was developed by the National Guideline Centre
Disclaimer: The recommendations in this guideline represent the view of NICE, arrived at after careful consideration of the evidence available. When exercising their judgement, professionals are expected to take this guideline fully into account, alongside the individual needs, preferences and values of their patients or service users. The recommendations in this guideline are not mandatory and the guideline does not override the responsibility of healthcare professionals to make decisions appropriate to the circumstances of the individual patient, in consultation with the patient and, where appropriate, their carer or guardian.
Local commissioners and providers have a responsibility to enable the guideline to be applied when individual health professionals and their patients or service users wish to use it. They should do so in the context of local and national priorities for funding and developing services, and in light of their duties to have due regard to the need to eliminate unlawful discrimination, to advance equality of opportunity and to reduce health inequalities. Nothing in this guideline should be interpreted in a way that would be inconsistent with compliance with those duties.
NICE guidelines cover health and care in England. Decisions on how they apply in other UK countries are made by ministers in the Welsh Government, Scottish Government, and Northern Ireland Executive. All NICE guidance is subject to regular review and may be updated or withdrawn.