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. 2020 Nov;5(11):e612-e623.
doi: 10.1016/S2468-2667(20)30225-5. Epub 2020 Oct 14.

COVID-19 in New Zealand and the impact of the national response: a descriptive epidemiological study

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COVID-19 in New Zealand and the impact of the national response: a descriptive epidemiological study

Sarah Jefferies et al. Lancet Public Health. 2020 Nov.

Abstract

Background: In early 2020, during the COVID-19 pandemic, New Zealand implemented graduated, risk-informed national COVID-19 suppression measures aimed at disease elimination. We investigated their impacts on the epidemiology of the first wave of COVID-19 in the country and response performance measures.

Methods: We did a descriptive epidemiological study of all laboratory-confirmed and probable cases of COVID-19 and all patients tested for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in New Zealand from Feb 2 to May 13, 2020, after which time community transmission ceased. We extracted data from the national notifiable diseases database and the national SARS-CoV-2 test results repository. Demographic features and disease outcomes, transmission patterns (source of infection, outbreaks, household transmission), time-to-event intervals, and testing coverage were described over five phases of the response, capturing different levels of non-pharmaceutical interventions. Risk factors for severe outcomes (hospitalisation or death) were examined with multivariable logistic regression and time-to-event intervals were analysed by fitting parametric distributions using maximum likelihood estimation.

Findings: 1503 cases were detected over the study period, including 95 (6·3%) hospital admissions and 22 (1·5%) COVID-19 deaths. The estimated case infection rate per million people per day peaked at 8·5 (95% CI 7·6-9·4) during the 10-day period of rapid response escalation, declining to 3·2 (2·8-3·7) in the start of lockdown and progressively thereafter. 1034 (69%) cases were imported or import related, tending to be younger adults, of European ethnicity, and of higher socioeconomic status. 702 (47%) cases were linked to 34 outbreaks. Severe outcomes were associated with locally acquired infection (crude odds ratio [OR] 2·32 [95% CI 1·40-3·82] compared with imported), older age (adjusted OR ranging from 2·72 [1·40-5·30] for 50-64 year olds to 8·25 [2·59-26·31] for people aged ≥80 years compared with 20-34 year olds), aged residential care residency (adjusted OR 3·86 [1·59-9·35]), and Pacific peoples (adjusted OR 2·76 [1·14-6·68]) and Asian (2·15 [1·10-4·20]) ethnicities relative to European or other. Times from illness onset to notification and isolation progressively decreased and testing increased over the study period, with few disparities and increasing coverage of females, Māori, Pacific peoples, and lower socioeconomic groups.

Interpretation: New Zealand's response resulted in low relative burden of disease, low levels of population disease disparities, and the initial achievement of COVID-19 elimination.

Funding: Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment Strategic Scientific Investment Fund, and Ministry of Health, New Zealand.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Key features of the New Zealand COVID-19 epidemic and response timeline Panel A shows the epidemic curve of confirmed and probable COVID-19 cases in New Zealand by source of infection and major non-pharmaceutical interventions (see panel). Travel restriction start dates are highlighted, which include entry restrictions to foreign nationals from specified countries, requirement for all remaining incoming travellers to isolate for 14 days, and border closures to all but New Zealand citizens or residents. Panel B shows daily SARS-CoV-2 molecular testing counts and daily test positivity (for days with ≥100 tests) and major national COVID-19 surveillance changes. SARS-CoV-2=severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. *Expanded to include non-febrile presentations of acute respiratory infection (shortness of breath, cough or sore throat, with or without fever), and testing of asymptomatic household contacts. †Removal of epidemiological criteria (travel to COVID-19-affected areas or close contact with a case) as a requirement (with clinical presentations) and expanded clinical criteria to include anosmia and coryza.
Figure 2
Figure 2
COVID-19 cumulative incidence by DHB, indicating epicentres and summary characteristics of the ten largest COVID-19 outbreaks Outbreak summaries show outbreak settings, number of linked cases, date range of illness onset, number of DHBs involved, female cases as percentage of total, median age (IQR), cases by ethnicity (Māori, Pacific peoples, European or other ethnicities, or unknown) as a percentage of total, percentage of total cases infected due to within household transmission, and percentage of cases identified as high-risk workers. Household transmission excludes cases from household clusters that introduced SARS-CoV-2 to the household and any other cases in a household with symptom onset within 1 day of the first case. DHB=District Health Board. SARS-CoV-2=severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Incidence rates of SARS-CoV-2 testing by sex and response phase (A) and by ethnic group and response phase (B) Incidence rates are presented per 100 000 person-days at risk with 95% CIs. SARS-CoV-2=severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2.

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