How will country-based mitigation measures influence the course of the COVID-19 epidemic?

doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30567-5

. 2020 Mar 21;395(10228):931-934.

doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30567-5. Epub 2020 Mar 9.

How will country-based mitigation measures influence the course of the COVID-19 epidemic?

Roy M Anderson¹, Hans Heesterbeek², Don Klinkenberg³, T Déirdre Hollingsworth⁴

Affiliations

¹ Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, MRC Centre for Global Health Analysis, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK. Electronic address: roy.anderson@imperial.ac.uk.
² Department of Population Health Sciences, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands.
³ National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, Netherlands.
⁴ Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.

PMID: 32164834
PMCID: PMC7158572
DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30567-5

How will country-based mitigation measures influence the course of the COVID-19 epidemic?

Roy M Anderson et al. Lancet. 2020.

. 2020 Mar 21;395(10228):931-934.

doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30567-5. Epub 2020 Mar 9.

Authors

Roy M Anderson¹, Hans Heesterbeek², Don Klinkenberg³, T Déirdre Hollingsworth⁴

Affiliations

¹ Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, MRC Centre for Global Health Analysis, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK. Electronic address: roy.anderson@imperial.ac.uk.
² Department of Population Health Sciences, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands.
³ National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, Netherlands.
⁴ Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.

PMID: 32164834
PMCID: PMC7158572
DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30567-5

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Figures

**Figure**
Illustrative simulations of a transmission model of COVID-19 A baseline simulation with case isolation only (red); a simulation with social distancing in place throughout the epidemic, flattening the curve (green), and a simulation with more effective social distancing in place for a limited period only, typically followed by a resurgent epidemic when social distancing is halted (blue). These are not quantitative predictions but robust qualitative illustrations for a range of model choices.

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References

1. WHO Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) situation report—44. March 4, 2020. https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/2... (accessed March 5, 2020).
1. Imperial College London, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis News / COVID-19—report 3: transmissibility of 2019-nCoV. 2020. Feb 21, 2010. https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/news–w... (accessed March 5, 2020).
1. Fraser C, Riley S, Anderson RM, Ferguson NM. Factors that make an infectious disease outbreak controllable. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. 2004;101:6146–6151. - PMC - PubMed
1. WHO Coronavirus disease (COVID-2019) situation report—30. https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/2... (accessed March 5, 2020).
1. Li L, Wong JY, Wu P, Bond HS, Lau EH, Sullivan SG, Cowling BJ. Heterogeneity in estimates of the impact of influenza on population mortality: a systematic review. Am J Epidemiol. 2018;187:378–388. - PMC - PubMed

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[1] WHO Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) situation report—44. March 4, 2020. https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/2... (accessed March 5, 2020).

[2] WHO Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) situation report—44. March 4, 2020. https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/2... (accessed March 5, 2020).

[3] Imperial College London, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis News / COVID-19—report 3: transmissibility of 2019-nCoV. 2020. Feb 21, 2010. https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/news–w... (accessed March 5, 2020).

[4] Imperial College London, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis News / COVID-19—report 3: transmissibility of 2019-nCoV. 2020. Feb 21, 2010. https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/news–w... (accessed March 5, 2020).

[5] Fraser C, Riley S, Anderson RM, Ferguson NM. Factors that make an infectious disease outbreak controllable. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. 2004;101:6146–6151. - PMC - PubMed

[6] Fraser C, Riley S, Anderson RM, Ferguson NM. Factors that make an infectious disease outbreak controllable. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. 2004;101:6146–6151. - PMC - PubMed

[7] WHO Coronavirus disease (COVID-2019) situation report—30. https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/2... (accessed March 5, 2020).

[8] WHO Coronavirus disease (COVID-2019) situation report—30. https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/2... (accessed March 5, 2020).

[9] Li L, Wong JY, Wu P, Bond HS, Lau EH, Sullivan SG, Cowling BJ. Heterogeneity in estimates of the impact of influenza on population mortality: a systematic review. Am J Epidemiol. 2018;187:378–388. - PMC - PubMed

[10] Li L, Wong JY, Wu P, Bond HS, Lau EH, Sullivan SG, Cowling BJ. Heterogeneity in estimates of the impact of influenza on population mortality: a systematic review. Am J Epidemiol. 2018;187:378–388. - PMC - PubMed

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How will country-based mitigation measures influence the course of the COVID-19 epidemic?

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How will country-based mitigation measures influence the course of the COVID-19 epidemic?

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