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Review
. 2013;10(2):e1001381.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1001381. Epub 2013 Feb 5.

Prognosis Research Strategy (PROGRESS) 3: prognostic model research

Ewout W Steyerberg  1 , Karel G M Moons, Danielle A van der Windt, Jill A Hayden, Pablo Perel, Sara Schroter, Richard D Riley, Harry Hemingway, Douglas G Altman; PROGRESS Group
Collaborators, Affiliations
Review

Prognosis Research Strategy (PROGRESS) 3: prognostic model research

Ewout W Steyerberg et al. PLoS Med. 2013.

Abstract

Prognostic models are abundant in the medical literature yet their use in practice seems limited. In this article, the third in the PROGRESS series, the authors review how such models are developed and validated, and then address how prognostic models are assessed for their impact on practice and patient outcomes, illustrating these ideas with examples.

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Conflict of interest statement

SS is a full time employee of the BMJ Group but is not involved in the decision making on manuscripts. The authors declare no other competing interests.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1. Kaplan-Meier survival curves for four risk groups derived from a prognostic model that provides a score to predict renal outcome in IgA nephropathy (reproduced from Goto et al [83]).
Figure 2
Figure 2. Web tool for prognosis of patients with head injury (CRASH trial) (reproduced from Perel et al with permission).
Figure 3
Figure 3. Distribution of published articles describing model development, validation, and impact assessment in four reviews (see Text S1).
Path element adapted from Chart 7.1 in the Cooksey report (2006) http://bit.ly/Ro27rL (made available for use and re-use through the Open Government License).
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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References

    1. Hemingway H, Croft P, Perel P, Hayden JA, Abrams K, Timmis A, et al. (2013) Prognosis research strategy (PROGRESS) 1: A framework for researching clinical outcomes. BMJ 346: e5595. - PMC - PubMed
    1. Riley RD, Hayden JA, Steyerberg EW, Moons KGM, Abrams K, et al. (2013) Prognosis research strategy (PROGRESS) 2: Prognostic factor research. PLoS Med 10: e1001380 doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1001380. - DOI - PMC - PubMed
    1. Harrell FE Jr (2001) Regression modeling strategies with applications to linear models, logistic regression, and survival analysis. Springer.
    1. Moons KG, Royston P, Vergouwe Y, Grobbee DE, Altman DG (2009) Prognosis and prognostic research: what, why, and how? BMJ 338: b375. - PubMed
    1. Steyerberg EW (2009) Clinical prediction models: a practical approach to development, validation, and updating. Springer.

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