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. 2008 Apr 1;6(4):e79.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pbio.0060079.

Climate change, humans, and the extinction of the woolly mammoth

David Nogués-Bravo  1 , Jesús Rodríguez, Joaquín Hortal, Persaram Batra, Miguel B Araújo
Affiliations

Climate change, humans, and the extinction of the woolly mammoth

David Nogués-Bravo et al. PLoS Biol. .

Abstract

Woolly mammoths inhabited Eurasia and North America from late Middle Pleistocene (300 ky BP [300,000 years before present]), surviving through different climatic cycles until they vanished in the Holocene (3.6 ky BP). The debate about why the Late Quaternary extinctions occurred has centred upon environmental and human-induced effects, or a combination of both. However, testing these two hypotheses-climatic and anthropogenic-has been hampered by the difficulty of generating quantitative estimates of the relationship between the contraction of the mammoth's geographical range and each of the two hypotheses. We combined climate envelope models and a population model with explicit treatment of woolly mammoth-human interactions to measure the extent to which a combination of climate changes and increased human pressures might have led to the extinction of the species in Eurasia. Climate conditions for woolly mammoths were measured across different time periods: 126 ky BP, 42 ky BP, 30 ky BP, 21 ky BP, and 6 ky BP. We show that suitable climate conditions for the mammoth reduced drastically between the Late Pleistocene and the Holocene, and 90% of its geographical range disappeared between 42 ky BP and 6 ky BP, with the remaining suitable areas in the mid-Holocene being mainly restricted to Arctic Siberia, which is where the latest records of woolly mammoths in continental Asia have been found. Results of the population models also show that the collapse of the climatic niche of the mammoth caused a significant drop in their population size, making woolly mammoths more vulnerable to the increasing hunting pressure from human populations. The coincidence of the disappearance of climatically suitable areas for woolly mammoths and the increase in anthropogenic impacts in the Holocene, the coup de grâce, likely set the place and time for the extinction of the woolly mammoth.

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Conflict of interest statement

Competing interests. The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1. Number of Records of Mammoth Presence along the Climatic Suitability Gradient
The suitable climatic conditions were split into quartiles (Q1, red; Q2, orange; Q3, yellow; Q4, green). The suitability gradient is measured using MD scores that represent the climatic difference between each of the woolly mammoth's records (radiocarbon calibrated for 42 ky BP, 30 ky BP, and 21 ky BP periods) and the average climatic conditions for the three periods combined. Increasing MDs represent decreasing suitability of the climate.
Figure 2
Figure 2. Change in the Area (%) of the Different Suitable Climatic Conditions for Woolly Mammoths
The suitability of climatic conditions based on MD was split into quartiles (Q1, red; Q2, orange; Q3, yellow; Q4, green). Q1 represents the most suitable conditions and Q4 represents the less suitable. The extent of the most suitable conditions for woolly mammoths was smaller during warmer interglacial periods, 126 ky BP and 6 ky BP.
Figure 3
Figure 3. Maps of Projected Climatic Suitability for the Woolly Mammoths in the Late Pleistocene and Holocene
Suitability scores are divided into four colour-scale classes (quartiles 1 [more suitable] to 4 [less suitable] of the MD), where increasing intensities of red represent increasing suitability of the climate and increasing intensities of green represent decreasing suitability. Black points are the records of mammoth presence for each of the periods. Black lines represent the northern limit of modern humans [59]. Black dotted lines indicate uncertainty in the limit of modern humans.
Figure 4
Figure 4. Estimated Number of Woolly Mammoths in Eurasia in Five Time Periods (A) and the Number of Woolly Mammoths Required To Be Killed per Person per Year (HIt) to Drive the Woolly Mammoth Population to Extinction in Their Area of Co-Existence for Four Time Periods (B–E)
(A) The red line, left y-axis, assumes a woolly mammoth population density (Dmt) of 4 individuals/km2 and the blue line of 0.1 individual/km2, right y-axis. Population density is considered to be time-independent. (B) The plot considers a suboptimal woolly mammoth population (CR = 0.35) with a woolly mammoth density of 4 individuals/km2. (C) This plot considers suboptimal woolly mammoth population (CR = 0.35) with a woolly mammoth density of 0.1 individuals/km2. (D) This plot considers a vigorous woolly mammoth population (CR = 2.7) with a woolly mammoth density of 4 individuals/km2. (E) This plot considers vigorous woolly mammoth population (CR = 2.7) with a woolly mammoth density of 0.1 individuals/km2. Colours represent three different estimations of AMH population density [56]. Green lines: average value, red lines: maximum value, blue lines: minimum value.
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Comment in

  • What killed the woolly mammoth?
    Sedwick C. Sedwick C. PLoS Biol. 2008 Apr;6(4):e99. doi: 10.1371/journal.pbio.0060099. Epub 2008 Apr 1. PLoS Biol. 2008. PMID: 20076709 Free PMC article. No abstract available.

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