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<rss version="2.0" xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom">
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<channel>
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<title>Climate Science Special Report</title>
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<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/</link>
|
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<description>Recent content on Climate Science Special Report</description>
|
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<generator>Hugo -- gohugo.io</generator>
|
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<language>en-us</language>
|
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<lastBuildDate>Fri, 23 Jun 2017 00:00:00 +0000</lastBuildDate>
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|
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<atom:link href="https://science2017.globalchange.gov/index.xml" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
|
||
|
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|
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<item>
|
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<title>About this Report</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/front-matter-about/</link>
|
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<pubDate>Fri, 23 Jun 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/front-matter-about/</guid>
|
||
<description></description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
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<title>Highlights of the Findings of the U.S. Global Change Research Program Climate Science Special Report</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/executive-summary/es-highlights/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Tue, 03 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/executive-summary/es-highlights/</guid>
|
||
<description>The climate of the United States is strongly connected to the changing global climate. The statements below highlight past, current, and projected climate changes for the United States and the globe.
|
||
Global annually averaged surface air temperature has increased by about 1.8°F (1.0°C) over the last 115 years (1901–2016). This period is now the warmest in the history of modern civilization. The last few years have also seen record-breaking, climate-related weather extremes, and the last three years have been the warmest years on record for the globe.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Guide to this Report</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/front-matter-guide/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Fri, 23 Jun 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/front-matter-guide/</guid>
|
||
<description></description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>A Changing Ocean</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/13/13.0/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Wed, 11 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/13/13.0/</guid>
|
||
<description>Anthropogenic perturbations to the global Earth system have included important alterations in the chemical composition, temperature, and circulation of the oceans. Some of these changes will be distinguishable from the background natural variability in nearly half of the global open ocean within a decade, with important consequences for marine ecosystems and their services.1 However, the timeframe for detection will vary depending on the parameter featured.2 ,3 </description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Introduction</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/14/14.0/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Wed, 11 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/14/14.0/</guid>
|
||
<description>This chapter provides scientific context for key issues regarding the long-term mitigation of climate change. As such, this chapter first addresses the science underlying the timing of when and how CO2 and other greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation activities that occur in the present affect the climate of the future. When do we see the benefits of a GHG emission reduction activity? Chapter 4: Projections provides further context for this topic. Relatedly, the present chapter discusses the significance of the relationship between net cumulative CO2 emissions and eventual global warming levels.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Introduction</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/7/7.0/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Mon, 09 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/7/7.0/</guid>
|
||
<description>Changes in precipitation are one of the most important potential outcomes of a warming world because precipitation is integral to the very nature of society and ecosystems. These systems have developed and adapted to the past envelope of precipitation variations. Any large changes beyond the historical envelope may have profound societal and ecological impacts.
|
||
Historical variations in precipitation, as observed from both instrumental and proxy records, establish the context around which future projected changes can be interpreted, because it is within that context that systems have evolved.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Introduction</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/2/2.0/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Fri, 06 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/2/2.0/</guid>
|
||
<description>Earth’s climate is undergoing substantial change due to anthropogenic activities (Ch. 1: Our Globally Changing Climate). Understanding the causes of past and present climate change and confidence in future projected changes depend directly on our ability to understand and model the physical drivers of climate change.1 Our understanding is challenged by the complexity and interconnectedness of the components of the climate system (that is, the atmosphere, land, ocean, and cryosphere). This chapter lays out the foundation of climate change by describing its physical drivers, which are primarily associated with atmospheric composition (gases and aerosols) and cloud effects.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Introduction</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/6/6.0/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Fri, 06 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/6/6.0/</guid>
|
||
<description>Temperature is among the most important climatic elements used in decision-making. For example, builders and insurers use temperature data for planning and risk management while energy companies and regulators use temperature data to predict demand and set utility rates. Temperature is also a key indicator of climate change: recent increases are apparent over the land, ocean, and troposphere, and substantial changes are expected for this century. This chapter summarizes the major observed and projected changes in near-surface air temperature over the United States, emphasizing new data sets and model projections since the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA3).</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Executive Summary</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/executive-summary/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Mon, 02 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/executive-summary/</guid>
|
||
<description></description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Introduction</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/executive-summary/es0/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Mon, 02 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/executive-summary/es0/</guid>
|
||
<description>New observations and new research have increased our understanding of past, current, and future climate change since the Third U.S. National Climate Assessment (NCA3) was published in May 2014. This Climate Science Special Report (CSSR) is designed to capture that new information and build on the existing body of science in order to summarize the current state of knowledge and provide the scientific foundation for the Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4).</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Our Globally Changing Climate</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/1/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Tue, 31 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/1/</guid>
|
||
<description></description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title></title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/10_1/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Mon, 30 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/10_1/</guid>
|
||
<description>Changes in land use and land cover due to human activities produce physical changes in land surface albedo, latent and sensible heat, and atmospheric aerosol and greenhouse gas concentrations. The combined effects of these changes have recently been estimated to account for 40% ± 16% of the human-caused global radiative forcing from 1850 to present day (high confidence). In recent decades, land use and land cover changes have turned the terrestrial biosphere (soil and plants) into a net “sink” for carbon (drawing down carbon from the atmosphere), and this sink has steadily increased since 1980 (high confidence).</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title></title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/11_1/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Mon, 30 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/11_1/</guid>
|
||
<description>Annual average near-surface air temperatures across Alaska and the Arctic have increased over the last 50 years at a rate more than twice as fast as the global average temperature (very high confidence).</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title></title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/12_1/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Mon, 30 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/12_1/</guid>
|
||
<description>Global mean sea level (GMSL) has risen by about 7–8 inches (about 16–21 cm) since 1900, with about 3 of those inches (about 7 cm) occurring since 1993 (very high confidence). Human-caused climate change has made a substantial contribution to GMSL rise since 1900 (high confidence), contributing to a rate of rise that is greater than during any preceding century in at least 2,800 years (medium confidence).</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title></title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/13_1/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Mon, 30 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/13_1/</guid>
|
||
<description>The world’s oceans have absorbed about 93% of the excess heat caused by greenhouse gas warming since the mid-20th century, making them warmer and altering global and regional climate feedbacks. Ocean heat content has increased at all depths since the 1960s and surface waters have warmed by about 1.3° ± 0.1°F (0.7° ± 0.08°C) per century globally since 1900 to 2016. Under a higher scenario, a global increase in average sea surface temperature of 4.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title></title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/14_1/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Mon, 30 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/14_1/</guid>
|
||
<description>Reducing net emissions of CO2 is necessary to limit near-term climate change and long-term warming. Other greenhouse gases (for example, methane) and black carbon aerosols exert stronger warming effects than CO2 on a per ton basis, but they do not persist as long in the atmosphere; therefore, mitigation of non-CO2 species contributes substantially to near-term cooling benefits but cannot be relied upon for ultimate stabilization goals. (Very high confidence)</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title></title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/15_1/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Mon, 30 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/15_1/</guid>
|
||
<description>Positive feedbacks (self-reinforcing cycles) within the climate system have the potential to accelerate human-induced climate change and even shift the Earth’s climate system, in part or in whole, into new states that are very different from those experienced in the recent past (for example, ones with greatly diminished ice sheets or different large-scale patterns of atmosphere or ocean circulation). Some feedbacks and potential state shifts can be modeled and quantified; others can be modeled or identified but not quantified; and some are probably still unknown.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title></title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/1_1/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Mon, 30 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/1_1/</guid>
|
||
<description>The global climate continues to change rapidly compared to the pace of the natural variations in climate that have occurred throughout Earth’s history. Trends in globally averaged temperature, sea level rise, upper-ocean heat content, land-based ice melt, arctic sea ice, depth of seasonal permafrost thaw, and other climate variables provide consistent evidence of a warming planet. These observed trends are robust and have been confirmed by multiple independent research groups around the world.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title></title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/2_1/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Mon, 30 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/2_1/</guid>
|
||
<description>Human activities continue to significantly affect Earth’s climate by altering factors that change its radiative balance. These factors, known as radiative forcings, include changes in greenhouse gases, small airborne particles (aerosols), and the reflectivity of the Earth’s surface. In the industrial era, human activities have been, and are increasingly, the dominant cause of climate warming. The increase in radiative forcing due to these activities has far exceeded the relatively small net increase due to natural factors, which include changes in energy from the sun and the cooling effect of volcanic eruptions.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title></title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/3_1/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Mon, 30 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/3_1/</guid>
|
||
<description>The likely range of the human contribution to the global mean temperature increase over the period 1951–2010 is 1.1° to 1.4°F (0.6° to 0.8°C), and the central estimate of the observed warming of 1.2°F (0.65°C) lies within this range (high confidence). This translates to a likely human contribution of 93%–123% of the observed 1951–2010 change. It is extremely likely that more than half of the global mean temperature increase since 1951 was caused by human influence on climate (high confidence).</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title></title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/4_1/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Mon, 30 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/4_1/</guid>
|
||
<description>If greenhouse gas concentrations were stabilized at their current level, existing concentrations would commit the world to at least an additional 1.1°F (0.6°C) of warming over this century relative to the last few decades (high confidence in continued warming, medium confidence in amount of warming).</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title></title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/5_1/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Mon, 30 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/5_1/</guid>
|
||
<description>The tropics have expanded poleward by about 70 to 200 miles in each hemisphere over the period 1979–2009, with an accompanying shift of the subtropical dry zones, midlatitude jets, and storm tracks (medium to high confidence). Human activities have played a role in this change (medium confidence), although confidence is presently low regarding the magnitude of the human contribution relative to natural variability.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title></title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/6_1/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Mon, 30 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/6_1/</guid>
|
||
<description>Annual average temperature over the contiguous United States has increased by 1.2°F (0.7°C) for the period 1986–2016 relative to 1901–1960 and by 1.8°F (1.0°C) based on a linear regression for the period 1895–2016 (very high confidence). Surface and satellite data are consistent in their depiction of rapid warming since 1979 (high confidence). Paleo-temperature evidence shows that recent decades are the warmest of the past 1,500 years (medium confidence).</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title></title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/7_1/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Mon, 30 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/7_1/</guid>
|
||
<description>Annual precipitation has decreased in much of the West, Southwest, and Southeast and increased in most of the Northern and Southern Plains, Midwest, and Northeast. A national average increase of 4% in annual precipitation since 1901 mostly a result of large increases in the fall season. (Medium confidence)</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title></title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/8_1/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Mon, 30 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/8_1/</guid>
|
||
<description>Recent droughts and associated heat waves have reached record intensity in some regions of the United States; however, by geographical scale and duration, the Dust Bowl era of the 1930s remains the benchmark drought and extreme heat event in the historical record (very high confidence). While by some measures drought has decreased over much of the continental United States in association with long-term increases in precipitation, neither the precipitation increases nor inferred drought decreases have been confidently attributed to anthropogenic forcing.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title></title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/9_1/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Mon, 30 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/9_1/</guid>
|
||
<description>Human activities have contributed substantially to observed ocean–atmosphere variability in the Atlantic Ocean (medium confidence), and these changes have contributed to the observed upward trend in North Atlantic hurricane activity since the 1970s (medium confidence).</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>About this Report</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/about/front-matter-about/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Wed, 18 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/about/front-matter-about/</guid>
|
||
<description>As a key part of the Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4), the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) oversaw the production of this stand-alone report of the state of science relating to climate change and its physical impacts.
|
||
The Climate Science Special Report (CSSR) is designed to be an authoritative assessment of the science of climate change, with a focus on the United States, to serve as the foundation for efforts to assess climate-related risks and inform decision-making about responses.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Introduction</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/15/15.1/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Thu, 12 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/15/15.1/</guid>
|
||
<description>The Earth system is made up of many components that interact in complex ways across a broad range of temporal and spatial scales. As a result of these interactions the behavior of the system cannot be predicted by looking at individual components in isolation. Negative feedbacks, or self-stabilizing cycles, within and between components of the Earth system can dampen changes (Ch. 2: Physical Drivers of Climate Change). However, their stabilizing effects render such feedbacks of less concern from a risk perspective than positive feedbacks, or self-reinforcing cycles.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Ocean Warming</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/13/13.1/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Wed, 11 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/13/13.1/</guid>
|
||
<description>13.1.1 General Background Approximately 93% of excess heat energy trapped since the 1970s has been absorbed into the oceans, lessening atmospheric warming and leading to a variety of changes in ocean conditions, including sea level rise and ocean circulation (see Ch. 2: Physical Drivers of Climate Change, Ch. 6: Temperature Change, and Ch. 12: Sea Level Rise in this report).1 ,4 This is the result of the high heat capacity of seawater relative to the atmosphere, the relative area of the ocean compared to the land, and the ocean circulation that enables the transport of heat into deep waters.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>The Timing of Benefits from Mitigation Actions</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/14/14.1/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Wed, 11 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/14/14.1/</guid>
|
||
<description>14.1.1 Lifetime of Greenhouse Gases and Inherent Delays in the Climate System Carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations in the atmosphere are directly affected by human activities in the form of CO2 emissions. Atmospheric CO2 concentrations adjust to human emissions of CO2 over long time scales, spanning from decades to millennia.1 ,2 The IPCC estimated that 15% to 40% of CO2 emitted until 2100 will remain in the atmosphere longer than 1,000 years.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Introduction</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/10/10.1/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Tue, 10 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/10/10.1/</guid>
|
||
<description>Direct changes in land use by humans are contributing to radiative forcing by altering land cover and therefore albedo, contributing to climate change (Ch. 2: Physical Drivers of Climate Change). This forcing is spatially variable in both magnitude and sign; globally averaged, it is negative (climate cooling; Figure 2.3). Climate changes, in turn, are altering the biogeochemistry of land ecosystems through extended growing seasons, increased numbers of frost-free days, altered productivity in agricultural and forested systems, longer fire seasons, and urban-induced thunderstorms.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Introduction</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/11/11.1/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Tue, 10 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/11/11.1/</guid>
|
||
<description>Climate changes in Alaska and across the Arctic continue to outpace changes occurring across the globe. The Arctic, defined as the area north of the Arctic Circle, is a vulnerable and complex system integral to Earth’s climate. The vulnerability stems in part from the extensive cover of ice and snow, where the freezing point marks a critical threshold that when crossed has the potential to transform the region. Because of its high sensitivity to radiative forcing and its role in amplifying warming,1 the arctic cryosphere is a key indicator of the global climate state.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Introduction and Conceptual Framework</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/appendix-c/c1/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Tue, 10 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/appendix-c/c1/</guid>
|
||
<description>In this appendix, we present a brief overview of the methodologies and methodological issues for detection and attribution of climate change. Attributing an observed change or an event partly to a causal factor (such as anthropogenic climate forcing) normally requires that the change first be detectable.1 A detectable observed change is one which is determined to be highly unlikely to occur (less than about a 10% chance) due to internal variability alone, without necessarily being ascribed to a causal factor.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Historical Changes</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/7/7.1/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Mon, 09 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/7/7.1/</guid>
|
||
<description>7.1.1 Mean Changes Annual precipitation averaged across the United States has increased approximately 4% over the 1901–2015 period, slightly less than the 5% increase reported in the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA3) over the 1901–2012 period.1 There continue to be important regional and seasonal differences in precipitation changes (Figure 7.1). Seasonally, national increases are largest in the fall, while little change is observed for winter. Regional differences are apparent, as the Northeast, Midwest, and Great Plains have had increases while parts of the Southwest and Southeast have had decreases.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Drought</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/8/8.1/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Fri, 06 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/8/8.1/</guid>
|
||
<description>The word “drought” brings to mind abnormally dry conditions. However, the meaning of “dry” can be ambiguous and lead to confusion in how drought is actually defined. Three different classes of droughts are defined by NOAA and describe a useful hierarchal set of water deficit characterization, each with different impacts. “Meteorological drought” describes conditions of precipitation deficit. “Agricultural drought” describes conditions of soil moisture deficit. “Hydrological drought” describes conditions of deficit in runoff.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Earth’s Energy Balance and the Greenhouse Effect</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/2/2.1/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Fri, 06 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/2/2.1/</guid>
|
||
<description>The temperature of the Earth system is determined by the amounts of incoming (short-wavelength) and outgoing (both short- and long-wavelength) radiation. In the modern era, radiative fluxes are well-constrained by satellite measurements (Figure 2.1). About a third (29.4%) of incoming, short-wavelength energy from the sun is reflected back to space, and the remainder is absorbed by Earth’s system. The fraction of sunlight scattered back to space is determined by the reflectivity (albedo) of clouds, land surfaces (including snow and ice), oceans, and particles in the atmosphere.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Introduction</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/1/1.1/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Fri, 06 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/1/1.1/</guid>
|
||
<description>Since the Third U.S. National Climate Assessment (NCA3) was published in May 2014, new observations along multiple lines of evidence have strengthened the conclusion that Earth’s climate is changing at a pace and in a pattern not explainable by natural influences. While this report focuses especially on observed and projected future changes for the United States, it is important to understand those changes in the global context (this chapter).
|
||
The world has warmed over the last 150 years, especially over the last six decades, and that warming has triggered many other changes to Earth’s climate.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Introduction</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/9/9.1/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Fri, 06 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/9/9.1/</guid>
|
||
<description>Extreme storms have numerous impacts on lives and property. Quantifying how broad-scale average climate influences the behavior of extreme storms is particularly challenging, in part because extreme storms are comparatively rare short-lived events and occur within an environment of largely random variability. Additionally, because the physical mechanisms linking climate change and extreme storms can manifest in a variety of ways, even the sign of the changes in the extreme storms can vary in a warming climate.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Model Weighting Strategy</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/appendix-b/b1/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Fri, 06 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/appendix-b/b1/</guid>
|
||
<description>Introduction
|
||
This document briefly describes a weighting strategy for use with the Climate Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) multimodel archive in the Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4). This approach considers both skill in the climatological performance of models over North America and the interdependency of models arising from common parameterizations or tuning practices. The method exploits information relating to the climatological mean state of a number of projection-relevant variables as well as long-term metrics representing long-term statistics of weather extremes.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Observational Datasets Used in Climate Studies</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/appendix-a/a1/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Fri, 06 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/appendix-a/a1/</guid>
|
||
<description>Climate Datasets
|
||
Observations, including those from satellites, mobile platforms, field campaigns, and ground-based networks, provide the basis of knowledge on many temporal and spatial scales for understanding the changes occurring in Earth’s climate system. These observations also inform the development, calibration, and evaluation of numerical models of the physics, chemistry, and biology being used in analyzing past changes in climate and for making future projections. As all observational data collected by support from Federal agencies are required to be made available free of charge with machine readable metadata, everyone can access these products for their personal analysis and research and for informing decisions.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>The Human Role in Future Climate</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/4/4.1/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Fri, 06 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/4/4.1/</guid>
|
||
<description>The Earth’s climate, past and future, is not static; it changes in response to both natural and anthropogenic drivers (see Ch. 2: Physical Drivers of Climate Change). Human emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and other greenhouse gases now overwhelm the influence of natural drivers on the external forcing of Earth’s climate (see Ch. 3: Detection and Attribution). Climate change (see Ch. 1: Our Globally Changing Climate) and ocean acidification (see Ch.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Guide to this Report</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/about/front-matter-guide/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Tue, 03 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/about/front-matter-guide/</guid>
|
||
<description>The following subsections describe the format of the Climate Science Special Report and the overall structure and features of the chapters.
|
||
Executive Summary The Executive Summary describes the major findings from the Climate Science Special Report. It summarizes the overall findings and includes some key figures and additional bullet points covering overarching and especially noteworthy conclusions. The Executive Summary and the majority of the Key Findings are written to be accessible to a wide range of audiences.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Introduction</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/5/5.1/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Tue, 03 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/5/5.1/</guid>
|
||
<description>The causes of regional climate trends cannot be understood without considering the impact of variations in large-scale atmospheric circulation and an assessment of the role of internally generated climate variability. There are contributions to regional climate trends from changes in large-scale latitudinal circulation, which is generally organized into three cells in each hemisphere—Hadley cell, Ferrell cell and Polar cell—and which determines the location of subtropical dry zones and midlatitude jet streams (Figure 5.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Introduction</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/3/3.1/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Mon, 02 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/3/3.1/</guid>
|
||
<description>Detection and attribution of climate change involves assessing the causes of observed changes in the climate system through systematic comparison of climate models and observations using various statistical methods. Detection and attribution studies are important for a number of reasons. For example, such studies can help determine whether a human influence on climate variables (for example, temperature) can be distinguished from natural variability. Detection and attribution studies can help evaluate whether model simulations are consistent with observed trends or other changes in the climate system.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Historical Changes</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/6/6.1/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Fri, 30 Jun 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/6/6.1/</guid>
|
||
<description>6.1.1 Average Temperatures Changes in average temperature are described using a suite of observational datasets. As in NCA3, changes in land temperature are assessed using the nClimGrid dataset.1 ,2 Along U.S. coastlines, changes in sea surface temperatures are quantified using a new reconstruction3 that forms the ocean component of the NOAA Global Temperature dataset.4 Changes in middle tropospheric temperature are examined using updated versions of multiple satellite datasets.5 ,6 ,7 The annual average temperature of the contiguous United States has risen since the start of the 20th century.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Global and U.S. Temperatures Continue to Rise</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/executive-summary/es1/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Sat, 17 Jun 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/executive-summary/es1/</guid>
|
||
<description>Long-term temperature observations are among the most consistent and widespread evidence of a warming planet. Temperature (and, above all, its local averages and extremes) affects agricultural productivity, energy use, human health, water resources, infrastructure, natural ecosystems, and many other essential aspects of society and the natural environment. Recent data add to the weight of evidence for rapid global-scale warming, the dominance of human causes, and the expected continuation of increasing temperatures, including more record-setting extremes.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Introduction</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/12/12.1/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Fri, 16 Jun 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/12/12.1/</guid>
|
||
<description>Sea level rise is closely linked to increasing global temperatures. Thus, even as uncertainties remain about just how much sea level may rise this century, it is virtually certain that sea level rise this century and beyond will pose a growing challenge to coastal communities, infrastructure, and ecosystems from increased (permanent) inundation, more frequent and extreme coastal flooding, erosion of coastal landforms, and saltwater intrusion within coastal rivers and aquifers. Assessment of vulnerability to rising sea levels requires consideration of physical causes, historical evidence, and projections.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Physical Drivers of Climate Change</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/2/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Tue, 31 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/2/</guid>
|
||
<description></description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title></title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/10_2/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Mon, 30 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/10_2/</guid>
|
||
<description>Climate change and induced changes in the frequency and magnitude of extreme events (e.g., droughts, floods, and heat waves) have led to large changes in plant community structure with subsequent effects on the biogeochemistry of terrestrial ecosystems. Uncertainties about how climate change will affect land cover change make it difficult to project the magnitude and sign of future climate feedbacks from land cover changes (high confidence).</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title></title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/11_2/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Mon, 30 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/11_2/</guid>
|
||
<description>Rising Alaskan permafrost temperatures are causing permafrost to thaw and become more discontinuous; this process releases additional carbon dioxide and methane, resulting in an amplifying feedback and additional warming (high confidence). The overall magnitude of the permafrost–carbon feedback is uncertain; however, it is clear that these emissions have the potential to compromise the ability to limit global temperature increases.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title></title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/12_2/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Mon, 30 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/12_2/</guid>
|
||
<description>Relative to the year 2000, GMSL is very likely to rise by 0.3–0.6 feet (9–18 cm) by 2030, 0.5–1.2 feet (15–38 cm) by 2050, and 1.0–4.3 feet (30–130 cm) by 2100 (very high confidence in lower bounds; medium confidence in upper bounds for 2030 and 2050; low confidence in upper bounds for 2100). Future pathways have little effect on projected GMSL rise in the first half of the century, but significantly affect projections for the second half of the century (high confidence).</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title></title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/13_2/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Mon, 30 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/13_2/</guid>
|
||
<description>The potential slowing of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC; of which the Gulf Stream is one component)—as a result of increasing ocean heat content and freshwater driven buoyancy changes—could have dramatic climate feedbacks as the ocean absorbs less heat and CO2 from the atmosphere. This slowing would also affect the climates of North America and Europe. Any slowing documented to date cannot be directly tied to anthropogenic forcing primarily due to lack of adequate observational data and to challenges in modeling ocean circulation changes.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title></title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/14_2/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Mon, 30 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/14_2/</guid>
|
||
<description>Stabilizing global mean temperature to less than 3.6°F (2°C) above preindustrial levels requires substantial reductions in net global CO2 emissions prior to 2040 relative to present-day values and likely requires net emissions to become zero or possibly negative later in the century. After accounting for the temperature effects of non-CO2 species, cumulative global CO2 emissions must stay below about 800 GtC in order to provide a two-thirds likelihood of preventing 3.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title></title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/15_2/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Mon, 30 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/15_2/</guid>
|
||
<description>The physical and socioeconomic impacts of compound extreme events (such as simultaneous heat and drought, wildfires associated with hot and dry conditions, or flooding associated with high precipitation on top of snow or waterlogged ground) can be greater than the sum of the parts (very high confidence). Few analyses consider the spatial or temporal correlation between extreme events.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title></title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/1_2/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Mon, 30 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/1_2/</guid>
|
||
<description>The frequency and intensity of extreme heat and heavy precipitation events are increasing in most continental regions of the world (very high confidence). These trends are consistent with expected physical responses to a warming climate. Climate model studies are also consistent with these trends, although models tend to underestimate the observed trends, especially for the increase in extreme precipitation events (very high confidence for temperature, high confidence for extreme precipitation). The frequency and intensity of extreme high temperature events are virtually certain to increase in the future as global temperature increases (high confidence).</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title></title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/2_2/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Mon, 30 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/2_2/</guid>
|
||
<description>Aerosols caused by human activity play a profound and complex role in the climate system through radiative effects in the atmosphere and on snow and ice surfaces and through effects on cloud formation and properties. The combined forcing of aerosol–radiation and aerosol–cloud interactions is negative (cooling) over the industrial era (high confidence), offsetting a substantial part of greenhouse gas forcing, which is currently the predominant human contribution. The magnitude of this offset, globally averaged, has declined in recent decades, despite increasing trends in aerosol emissions or abundances in some regions (medium to high confidence).</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title></title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/3_2/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Mon, 30 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/3_2/</guid>
|
||
<description>The science of event attribution is rapidly advancing through improved understanding of the mechanisms that produce extreme events and the marked progress in development of methods that are used for event attribution (high confidence).</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title></title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/4_2/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Mon, 30 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/4_2/</guid>
|
||
<description>Over the next two decades, global temperature increase is projected to be between 0.5°F and 1.3°F (0.3°–0.7°C) (medium confidence). This range is primarily due to uncertainties in natural sources of variability that affect short-term trends. In some regions, this means that the trend may not be distinguishable from natural variability (high confidence).</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title></title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/5_2/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Mon, 30 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/5_2/</guid>
|
||
<description>Recurring patterns of variability in large-scale atmospheric circulation (such as the North Atlantic Oscillation and Northern Annular Mode) and the atmosphere–ocean system (such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation) cause year-to-year variations in U.S. temperatures and precipitation (high confidence). Changes in the occurrence of these patterns or their properties have contributed to recent U.S. temperature and precipitation trends (medium confidence), although confidence is low regarding the size of the role of human activities in these changes.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title></title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/6_2/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Mon, 30 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/6_2/</guid>
|
||
<description>There have been marked changes in temperature extremes across the contiguous United States. The frequency of cold waves has decreased since the early 1900s, and the frequency of heat waves has increased since the mid-1960s. The Dust Bowl era of the 1930s remains the peak period for extreme heat. The number of high temperature records set in the past two decades far exceeds the number of low temperature records. (Very high confidence)</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title></title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/7_2/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Mon, 30 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/7_2/</guid>
|
||
<description>Heavy precipitation events in most parts of the United States have increased in both intensity and frequency since 1901 (high confidence). There are important regional differences in trends, with the largest increases occurring in the northeastern United States (high confidence). In particular, mesoscale convective systems (organized clusters of thunderstorms)—the main mechanism for warm season precipitation in the central part of the United States—have increased in occurrence and precipitation amounts since 1979 (medium confidence).</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title></title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/8_2/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Mon, 30 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/8_2/</guid>
|
||
<description>The human effect on recent major U.S. droughts is complicated. Little evidence is found for a human influence on observed precipitation deficits, but much evidence is found for a human influence on surface soil moisture deficits due to increased evapotranspiration caused by higher temperatures. (High confidence)</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title></title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/9_2/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Mon, 30 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/9_2/</guid>
|
||
<description>Both theory and numerical modeling simulations generally indicate an increase in tropical cyclone (TC) intensity in a warmer world, and the models generally show an increase in the number of very intense TCs. For Atlantic and eastern North Pacific hurricanes and western North Pacific typhoons, increases are projected in precipitation rates (high confidence) and intensity (medium confidence). The frequency of the most intense of these storms is projected to increase in the Atlantic and western North Pacific (low confidence) and in the eastern North Pacific (medium confidence).</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Physical Factors Contributing to Sea Level Rise</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/12/12.2/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Fri, 27 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/12/12.2/</guid>
|
||
<description>Sea level change is driven by a variety of mechanisms operating at different spatial and temporal scales (see Kopp et al. 20153 for a review). GMSL rise is primarily driven by two factors: 1) increased volume of seawater due to thermal expansion of the ocean as it warms, and 2) increased mass of water in the ocean due to melting ice from mountain glaciers and the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Risk Quantification and Its Limits</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/15/15.2/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Thu, 12 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/15/15.2/</guid>
|
||
<description>Quantifying the risk of low-probability, high-impact events, based on models or observations, usually involves examining the tails of a probability distribution function (PDF). Robust detection, attribution, and projection of such events into the future is challenged by multiple factors, including an observational record that often does not represent the full range of physical possibilities in the climate system, as well as the limitations of the statistical tools, scientific understanding, and models used to describe these processes.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Ocean Circulation</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/13/13.2/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Wed, 11 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/13/13.2/</guid>
|
||
<description>13.2.1 Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) refers to the three-dimensional, time-dependent circulation of the Atlantic Ocean, which has been a high priority topic of study in recent decades. The AMOC plays an important role in climate through its transport of heat, freshwater, and carbon (e.g., Johns et al. 2011;30 McDonagh et al. 2015;31 Talley et al. 201632 ). AMOC-associated poleward heat transport substantially contributes to North American and continental European climate (see Ch.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Pathways Centered Around 3.6°F (2°C)</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/14/14.2/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Wed, 11 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/14/14.2/</guid>
|
||
<description>The idea of a 3.6°F (2°C) goal can be found in the scientific literature as early as 1975. Nordhaus22 justified it by simply stating, “If there were global temperatures more than 2 or 3°C above the current average temperature, this would take the climate outside of the range of observations which have been made over the last several hundred thousand years.” Since that time, the concept of a 3.6°F (2°C) goal gained attention in both scientific and policy discourse.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Arctic Changes</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/11/11.2/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Tue, 10 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/11/11.2/</guid>
|
||
<description>11.2.1 Alaska and Arctic Temperature Surface temperature—an essential component of the arctic climate system—drives and signifies change, fundamentally controlling the melting of ice and snow. Further, the vertical profile of boundary layer temperature modulates the exchange of mass, energy, and momentum between the surface and atmosphere, influencing other components such as clouds.7 ,8 Arctic temperatures exhibit spatial and interannual variability due to interactions and feedbacks between sea ice, snow cover, atmospheric heat transports, vegetation, clouds, water vapor, and the surface energy budget.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Fingerprint-Based Methods</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/appendix-c/c2/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Tue, 10 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/appendix-c/c2/</guid>
|
||
<description>A key methodological approach for detection and attribution is the regression-based “fingerprint” method (e.g., Hasselmann 1997;3 Allen and Stott 2003;4 Hegerl et al. 2007;5 Hegerl and Zwiers 2011;6 Bindoff et al. 20132 ), where observed changes are regressed onto a model-generated response pattern to a particular forcing (or set of forcings), and regression scaling factors are obtained. When a scaling factor for a forcing pattern is determined to be significantly different from zero, a detectable change has been identified.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Terrestrial Ecosystem Interactions with the Climate System</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/10/10.2/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Tue, 10 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/10/10.2/</guid>
|
||
<description>Other chapters of this report discuss changes in temperature (Ch. 6: Temperature Change), precipitation (Ch. 7: Precipitation Change), hydrology (Ch. 8: Droughts, Floods, and Wildfires), and extreme events (Ch. 9: Extreme Storms). Collectively, these processes affect the phenology, structure, productivity, and biogeochemical processes of all terrestrial ecosystems, and as such, climate change will alter land cover and ecosystem services.
|
||
10.2.1 Land Cover and Climate Forcing Changes in land cover and land use have long been recognized as important contributors to global climate forcing (e.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Projections</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/7/7.2/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Mon, 09 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/7/7.2/</guid>
|
||
<description>Changes in precipitation in a warmer climate are governed by many factors. Although energy constraints can be used to understand global changes in precipitation, projecting regional changes is much more difficult because of uncertainty in projecting changes in the large-scale circulation that plays an important role in the formation of clouds and precipitation.40 For the contiguous United States (CONUS), future changes in seasonal average precipitation will include a mix of increases, decreases, or little change, depending on location and season (Figure 7.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Detection and Attribution</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/6/6.2/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Fri, 06 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/6/6.2/</guid>
|
||
<description>6.2.1 Average Temperatures While a confident attribution of global temperature increases to anthropogenic forcing has been made,24 detection and attribution assessment statements for smaller regions are generally much weaker. Nevertheless, some detectable anthropogenic influences on average temperature have been reported for North America and parts of the United States (e.g., Christidis et al. 2010;25 Bonfils et al. 2008;26 Pierce et al. 200927 ). Figure 6.6 shows an example for linear trends for 1901–2015, indicating a detectable anthropogenic warming since 1901 over the western and northern regions of the contiguous United States for the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble—a condition that was also met for most of the individual models.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Floods</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/8/8.2/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Fri, 06 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/8/8.2/</guid>
|
||
<description>Flooding damage in the United States can come from flash floods of smaller rivers and creeks, prolonged flooding along major rivers, urban flooding unassociated with proximity to a riverway, coastal flooding from storm surge which may be exacerbated by sea level rise, and the confluence of coastal storms and inland riverine flooding from the same precipitation event (Ch. 12: Sea Level Rise). Flash flooding is associated with extreme precipitation somewhere along the river which may occur upstream of the regions at risk.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Future Scenarios</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/4/4.2/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Fri, 06 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/4/4.2/</guid>
|
||
<description>Climate projections are typically presented for a range of plausible pathways, scenarios, or targets that capture the relationships between human choices, emissions, concentrations, and temperature change. Some scenarios are consistent with continued dependence on fossil fuels, while others can only be achieved by deliberate actions to reduce emissions. The resulting range reflects the uncertainty inherent in quantifying human activities (including technological change) and their influence on climate.
|
||
The first Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report (IPCC FAR) in 1990 discussed three types of scenarios: equilibrium scenarios, in which CO2 concentration was fixed; transient scenarios, in which CO2 concentration increased by a fixed percentage each year over the duration of the scenario; and four brand-new Scientific Assessment (SA90) emission scenarios based on World Bank population projections.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Indicators of a Globally Changing Climate</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/1/1.2/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Fri, 06 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/1/1.2/</guid>
|
||
<description>Highly diverse types of direct measurements made on land, sea, and in the atmosphere over many decades have allowed scientists to conclude with high confidence that global mean temperature is increasing. Observational datasets for many other climate variables support the conclusion with high confidence that the global climate is changing (also see EPA 201614 ).15 ,16 Figure 1.1 depicts several of the observational indicators that demonstrate trends consistent with a warming planet over the last century.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Radiative Forcing (RF) and Effective Radiative Forcing (ERF)</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/2/2.2/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Fri, 06 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/2/2.2/</guid>
|
||
<description>Radiative forcing (RF) is widely used to quantify a radiative imbalance in Earth’s atmosphere resulting from either natural changes or anthropogenic activities over the industrial era. It is expressed as a change in net radiative flux (W/m2) either at the tropopause or top of the atmosphere,8 with the latter nominally defined at 20 km altitude to optimize observation/model comparisons. 9 The instantaneous RF is defined as the immediate change in net radiative flux following a change in a climate driver.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Tropical Cyclones (Hurricanes and Typhoons)</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/9/9.2/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Tue, 03 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/9/9.2/</guid>
|
||
<description>Detection and attribution (Ch. 3: Detection and Attribution) of past changes in tropical cyclone (TC) behavior remain a challenge due to the nature of the historical data, which are highly heterogeneous in both time and among the various regions that collect and analyze the data.1 ,2 ,3 While there are ongoing efforts to reanalyze and homogenize the data (e.g., Landsea et al. 2015;4 Kossin et al. 20132 ), there is still low confidence that any reported long-term (multidecadal to centennial) increases in TC activity are robust, after accounting for past changes in observing capabilities [which is unchanged from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5) assessment statement5 ].</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Detection and Attribution of Global Temperature Changes</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/3/3.2/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Mon, 02 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/3/3.2/</guid>
|
||
<description>The concept of detection and attribution is illustrated in Figure 3.1, which shows a very simple example of detection and attribution of global mean temperature. While more powerful pattern-based detection and attribution methods (discussed later), and even greater use of time averaging, can result in much stronger statements about detection and attribution, the example in Figure 3.1 serves to illustrate the general concept. In the figure, observed global mean temperature anomalies (relative to a 1901–1960 baseline) are compared with anomalies from historical simulations of CMIP5 models.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Many Temperature and Precipitation Extremes Are Becoming More Common </title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/executive-summary/es2/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Mon, 02 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/executive-summary/es2/</guid>
|
||
<description>Temperature and precipitation extremes can affect water quality and availability, agricultural productivity, human health, vital infrastructure, iconic ecosystems and species, and the likelihood of disasters. Some extremes have already become more frequent, intense, or of longer duration, and many extremes are expected to continue to increase or worsen, presenting substantial challenges for built, agricultural, and natural systems. Some storm types such as hurricanes, tornadoes, and winter storms are also exhibiting changes that have been linked to climate change, although the current state of the science does not yet permit detailed understanding.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Modes of Variability: Past and Projected Changes</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/5/5.2/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Fri, 16 Jun 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/5/5.2/</guid>
|
||
<description>5.2.1 Width of the Tropics and Global Circulation Evidence continues to mount for an expansion of the tropics over the past several decades, with a poleward expansion of the Hadley cell and an associated poleward shift of the subtropical dry zones and storm tracks in each hemisphere.5 ,20 ,21 ,22 ,23 ,24 ,25 ,26 ,27 ,28 ,29 The rate of expansion is uncertain and depends on the metrics and data sources that are used.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Detection and Attribution of Climate Change</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/3/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Tue, 31 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/3/</guid>
|
||
<description></description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title></title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/10_3/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Mon, 30 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/10_3/</guid>
|
||
<description>Since 1901, regional averages of both the consecutive number of frost-free days and the length of the corresponding growing season have increased for the seven contiguous U.S. regions used in this assessment. However, there is important variability at smaller scales, with some locations actually showing decreases of a few days to as much as one to two weeks. Plant productivity has not increased commensurate with the increased number of frost-free days or with the longer growing season due to plant-specific temperature thresholds, plant–pollinator dependence, and seasonal limitations in water and nutrient availability (very high confidence).</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title></title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/11_3/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Mon, 30 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/11_3/</guid>
|
||
<description>Arctic land and sea ice loss observed in the last three decades continues, in some cases accelerating (very high confidence). It is virtually certain that Alaska glaciers have lost mass over the last 50 years, with each year since 1984 showing an annual average ice mass less than the previous year. Based on gravitational data from satellites, average ice mass loss from Greenland was −269 Gt per year between April 2002 and April 2016, accelerating in recent years (high confidence).</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title></title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/12_3/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Mon, 30 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/12_3/</guid>
|
||
<description>Relative sea level (RSL) rise in this century will vary along U.S. coastlines due, in part, to changes in Earth’s gravitational field and rotation from melting of land ice, changes in ocean circulation, and vertical land motion (very high confidence). For almost all future GMSL rise scenarios, RSL rise is likely to be greater than the global average in the U.S. Northeast and the western Gulf of Mexico. In intermediate and low GMSL rise scenarios, RSL rise is likely to be less than the global average in much of the Pacific Northwest and Alaska.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title></title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/13_3/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Mon, 30 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/13_3/</guid>
|
||
<description>The world’s oceans are currently absorbing more than a quarter of the CO2 emitted to the atmosphere annually from human activities, making them more acidic (very high confidence), with potential detrimental impacts to marine ecosystems. In particular, higher-latitude systems typically have a lower buffering capacity against pH change, exhibiting seasonally corrosive conditions sooner than low-latitude systems. Acidification is regionally increasing along U.S. coastal systems as a result of upwelling (for example, in the Pacific Northwest) (high confidence), changes in freshwater inputs (for example, in the Gulf of Maine) (medium confidence), and nutrient input (for example, in agricultural watersheds and urbanized estuaries) (high confidence).</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title></title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/14_3/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Mon, 30 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/14_3/</guid>
|
||
<description>Achieving global greenhouse gas emissions reductions before 2030 consistent with targets and actions announced by governments in the lead up to the 2015 Paris climate conference would hold open the possibility of meeting the long-term temperature goal of limiting global warming to 3.6°F (2°C) above preindustrial levels, whereas there would be virtually no chance if net global emissions followed a pathway well above those implied by country announcements. Actions in the announcements are, by themselves, insufficient to meet a 3.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title></title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/15_3/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Mon, 30 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/15_3/</guid>
|
||
<description>While climate models incorporate important climate processes that can be well quantified, they do not include all of the processes that can contribute to feedbacks, compound extreme events, and abrupt and/or irreversible changes. For this reason, future changes outside the range projected by climate models cannot be ruled out (very high confidence). Moreover, the systematic tendency of climate models to underestimate temperature change during warm paleoclimates suggests that climate models are more likely to underestimate than to overestimate the amount of long-term future change (medium confidence).</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title></title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/1_3/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Mon, 30 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/1_3/</guid>
|
||
<description>Many lines of evidence demonstrate that it is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century. Formal detection and attribution studies for the period 1951 to 2010 find that the observed global mean surface temperature warming lies in the middle of the range of likely human contributions to warming over that same period. We find no convincing evidence that natural variability can account for the amount of global warming observed over the industrial era.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title></title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/2_3/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Mon, 30 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/2_3/</guid>
|
||
<description>The interconnected Earth–atmosphere–ocean system includes a number of positive and negative feedback processes that can either strengthen (positive feedback) or weaken (negative feedback) the system’s responses to human and natural influences. These feedbacks operate on a range of time scales from very short (essentially instantaneous) to very long (centuries). Global warming by net radiative forcing over the industrial era includes a substantial amplification from these feedbacks (approximately a factor of three) (high confidence).</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title></title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/4_3/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Mon, 30 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/4_3/</guid>
|
||
<description>Beyond the next few decades, the magnitude of climate change depends primarily on cumulative emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols and the sensitivity of the climate system to those emissions (high confidence). Projected changes range from 4.7°–8.6°F (2.6°–4.8°C) under the higher scenario (RCP8.5) to 0.5°–1.3°F (0.3°–1.7°C) under the much lower scenario (RCP2.6), for 2081–2100 relative to 1986–2005 (medium confidence).</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title></title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/6_3/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Mon, 30 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/6_3/</guid>
|
||
<description>Annual average temperature over the contiguous United States is projected to rise (very high confidence). Increases of about 2.5°F (1.4°C) are projected for the period 2021–2050 relative to 1976–2005 in all RCP scenarios, implying recent record-setting years may be “common” in the next few decades (high confidence). Much larger rises are projected by late century (2071–2100): 2.8°–7.3°F (1.6°–4.1°C) in a lower scenario (RCP4.5) and 5.8°–11.9°F (3.2°–6.6°C) in the higher scenario (RCP8.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title></title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/7_3/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Mon, 30 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/7_3/</guid>
|
||
<description>The frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events are projected to continue to increase over the 21st century (high confidence). Mesoscale convective systems in the central United States are expected to continue to increase in number and intensity in the future (medium confidence). There are, however, important regional and seasonal differences in projected changes in total precipitation: the northern United States, including Alaska, is projected to receive more precipitation in the winter and spring, and parts of the southwestern United States are projected to receive less precipitation in the winter and spring (medium confidence).</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title></title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/8_3/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Mon, 30 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/8_3/</guid>
|
||
<description>Future decreases in surface (top 10 cm) soil moisture from anthropogenic forcing over most of the United States are likely as the climate warms under higher scenarios. (Medium confidence)</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title></title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/9_3/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Mon, 30 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/9_3/</guid>
|
||
<description>Tornado activity in the United States has become more variable, particularly over the 2000s, with a decrease in the number of days per year with tornadoes and an increase in the number of tornadoes on these days (medium confidence). Confidence in past trends for hail and severe thunderstorm winds, however, is low. Climate models consistently project environmental changes that would putatively support an increase in the frequency and intensity of severe thunderstorms (a category that combines tornadoes, hail, and winds), especially over regions that are currently prone to these hazards, but confidence in the details of this projected increase is low.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Non-Fingerprint Based Methods</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/appendix-c/c3/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Fri, 27 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/appendix-c/c3/</guid>
|
||
<description>A simpler detection/attribution/consistency calculation, which does not involve regression and pattern scaling, compares observed and simulated time series to assess whether observations are consistent with natural variability simulations or with simulations forced by both natural and anthropogenic forcing agents.10 ,11 Cases where observations are inconsistent with model simulations using natural forcing only (a detectable change), while also being consistent with models that incorporate both anthropogenic and natural forcings, are interpreted as having an attributable anthropogenic contribution, subject to caveats regarding uncertainties in observations, climate forcings, modeled responses, and simulated internal climate variability.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Compound Extremes</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/15/15.3/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Thu, 12 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/15/15.3/</guid>
|
||
<description>An important aspect of surprise is the potential for compound extreme events. These can be events that occur at the same time or in sequence (such as consecutive floods in the same region) and in the same geographic location or at multiple locations within a given country or around the world (such as the 2009 Australian floods and wildfires). They may consist of multiple extreme events or of events that by themselves may not be extreme but together produce a multi-event occurrence (such as a heat wave accompanied by drought19 ).</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Ocean Acidification</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/13/13.3/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Wed, 11 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/13/13.3/</guid>
|
||
<description>13.3.1 General Background &nbsp; Figure 13.4 VIEW Trends in surface (&lt; 50 m) ocean carbonate chemistry calculated from observations obtained at the Hawai‘i Ocean Time-series (HOT) Program in the North Pacific over 1988–2015. The upper panel shows the linked increase in atmospheric (red points) and seawater (blue points) CO2 concentrations. The bottom panel shows a decline in seawater pH (black points, primary y-axis) and carbonate ion concentration (green points, secondary y-axis).</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>The Role of Climate Intervention in Meeting Ambitious Climate Targets</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/14/14.3/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Wed, 11 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/14/14.3/</guid>
|
||
<description>Limiting the global mean temperature increase through emissions reductions or adapting to the impacts of a greater-than-3.6°F (2°C) warmer world have been acknowledged as severely challenging tasks by the international science and policy communities. Consequently, there is increased interest by some scientists and policy makers in exploring additional measures designed to reduce net radiative forcing through other, as yet untested actions, which are often referred to as geoengineering or climate intervention (CI) actions.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Arctic Feedbacks on the Lower 48 and Globally</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/11/11.3/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Tue, 10 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/11/11.3/</guid>
|
||
<description>11.3.1 Linkages between Arctic Warming and Lower Latitudes Midlatitude circulation influences arctic climate and climate change.11 ,136 ,137 ,138 ,139 ,140 ,141 ,142 ,143 ,144 ,145 Record warm arctic temperatures in winter 2016 resulted primarily from the transport of midlatitude air into the Arctic, demonstrating the significant midlatitude influence.146 Emerging science demonstrates that warm, moist air intrusions from midlatitudes results in increased downwelling longwave radiation, warming the arctic surface and hindering wintertime sea ice growth.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Climate Indicators and Agricultural and Forest Responses</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/10/10.3/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Tue, 10 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/10/10.3/</guid>
|
||
<description>Recent studies indicate a correlation between the expansion of agriculture and the global amplitude of CO2 uptake and emissions.74 ,75 Conversely, agricultural production is increasingly disrupted by climate and extreme weather events, and these effects are expected to be augmented by mid-century and beyond for most crops.76 ,77 Precipitation extremes put pressure on agricultural soil and water assets and lead to increased irrigation, shrinking aquifers, and ground subsidence.
|
||
10.3.1 Changes in the Frost-Free and Growing Seasons The concept that longer growing seasons are increasing productivity in some agricultural and forested ecosystems was discussed in the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA3).</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Drivers of Climate Change over the Industrial Era</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/2/2.3/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Fri, 06 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/2/2.3/</guid>
|
||
<description>Climate drivers of significance over the industrial era include both those associated with anthropogenic activity and, to a lesser extent, those of natural origin. The only significant natural climate drivers in the industrial era are changes in solar irradiance, volcanic eruptions, and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Natural emissions and sinks of GHGs and tropospheric aerosols have varied over the industrial era but have not contributed significantly to RF. The effects of cosmic rays on cloud formation have been studied, but global radiative effects are not considered significant.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Modeling Tools</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/4/4.3/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Fri, 06 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/4/4.3/</guid>
|
||
<description>Using transient scenarios such as SRES and RCP as input, global climate models (GCMs) produce trajectories of future climate change, including global and regional changes in temperature, precipitation, and other physical characteristics of the climate system (see also Ch. 6: Temperature Change and Ch. 7: Precipitation Change).3 ,61 The resolution of global models has increased significantly since IPCC FAR.19 However, even the latest experimental high-resolution simulations, at 15–30 miles (25–50 km) per gridbox, are unable to simulate all of the important fine-scale processes occurring at regional to local scales.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Paleo Sea Level</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/12/12.3/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Fri, 06 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/12/12.3/</guid>
|
||
<description>Geological records of temperature and sea level indicate that during past warm periods over the last several millions of years, GMSL was higher than it is today.19 ,20 During the Last Interglacial stage, about 125,000 years ago, global average sea surface temperature was about 0.5° ± 0.3°C (0.9° ± 0.5°F) above the preindustrial level [that is, comparable to the average over 1995–2014, when global mean temperature was about 0.8°C (1.4°F) above the preindustrial levels].</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Projected Changes</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/6/6.3/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Fri, 06 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/6/6.3/</guid>
|
||
<description>6.3.1 Average Temperatures Temperature projections are based on global model results and associated downscaled products from CMIP5 using a suite of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). In contrast to NCA3, model weighting is employed to refine projections of temperature for each RCP (Ch. 4: Projections; Appendix B: Model Weighting). Weighting parameters are based on model independence and skill over North America for seasonal temperature and annual extremes. Unless stated otherwise, all changes presented here represent the weighted multimodel mean.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Trends in Global Temperatures</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/1/1.3/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Fri, 06 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/1/1.3/</guid>
|
||
<description>Global annual average temperature (as calculated from instrumental records over both land and oceans; used interchangeably with global average temperature in the discussion below) has increased by more than 1.2°F (0.7°C) for the period 1986–2016 relative to 1901–1960 (Figure 1.2); see Vose et al.22 for discussion on how global annual average temperature is derived by scientists. The linear regression change over the entire period from 1901–2016 is 1.8°F (1.0°C). Global average temperature is not expected to increase smoothly over time in response to the human warming influences, because the warming trend is superimposed on natural variability associated with, for example, the El Niño/La Niña ocean-heat oscillations and the cooling effects of particles emitted by volcanic eruptions.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Wildfires</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/8/8.3/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Fri, 06 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/8/8.3/</guid>
|
||
<description>A global phenomenon with natural (lightning) and human-caused ignition sources, wildfire represents a critical ecosystem process. Recent decades have seen a profound increase in forest fire activity over the western United States and Alaska.104 ,105 ,106 ,107 The frequency of large wildfires is influenced by a complex combination of natural and human factors. Temperature, soil moisture, relative humidity, wind speed, and vegetation (fuel density) are important aspects of the relationship between fire frequency and ecosystems.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Quantifying the Role of Internal Variability on Past and Future U.S. Climate Trends</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/5/5.3/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Tue, 03 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/5/5.3/</guid>
|
||
<description>The role of internal variability in masking trends is substantially increased on regional and local scales relative to the global scale, and in the extratropics relative to the tropics (Ch. 4: Projections). Approaches have been developed to better quantify the externally forced and internally driven contributions to observed and future climate trends and variability and further separate these contributions into thermodynamically and dynamically driven factors.17 Specifically, large “initial condition” climate model ensembles with 30 ensemble members and more93 ,173 ,174 and long control runs175 have been shown to be useful tools to characterize uncertainties in climate change projections at local/regional scales.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Severe Convective Storms (Thunderstorms)</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/9/9.3/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Tue, 03 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/9/9.3/</guid>
|
||
<description>Tornado and severe thunderstorm events cause significant loss of life and property: more than one-third of the $1 billion weather disasters in the United States during the past 25 years were due to such events, and, relative to other extreme weather, the damages from convective weather hazards have undergone the largest increase since 1980.40 A particular challenge in quantifying the existence and intensity of these events arises from the data source: rather than measurements, the occurrence of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms is determined by visual sightings by eyewitnesses (such as “storm spotters” and law enforcement officials) or post-storm damage assessments.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Detection and Attribution with a United States Regional Focus</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/3/3.3/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Mon, 02 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/3/3.3/</guid>
|
||
<description>Detection and attribution at regional scales is generally more challenging than at the global scale for a number of reasons. At the regional scale, the magnitude of natural variability swings are typically larger than for global means. If the climate change signal is similar in magnitude at the regional and global scales, this makes it more difficult to detect anthropogenic climate changes at the regional scale. Furthermore, there is less spatial pattern information at the regional scale that can be used to distinguish contributions from various forcings.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>The Connected Climate System: Distant Changes Affect the United States</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/executive-summary/es3/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Mon, 02 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/executive-summary/es3/</guid>
|
||
<description>The Connected Climate System: Distant Changes Affect the United States Weather conditions and the ways they vary across regions and over the course of the year are influenced, in the United States as elsewhere, by a range of factors, including local conditions (such as topography and urban heat islands), global trends (such as human-caused warming), and global and regional circulation patterns, including cyclical and chaotic patterns of natural variability within the climate system.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Climate Models, Scenarios, and Projections</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/4/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Tue, 31 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/4/</guid>
|
||
<description></description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title></title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/10_4/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Mon, 30 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/10_4/</guid>
|
||
<description>Recent studies confirm and quantify that surface temperatures are higher in urban areas than in surrounding rural areas for a number of reasons, including the concentrated release of heat from buildings, vehicles, and industry. In the United States, this urban heat island effect results in daytime temperatures 0.9°–7.2°F (0.5°–4.0°C) higher and nighttime temperatures 1.8°– 4.5°F (1.0°–2.5°C) higher in urban areas, with larger temperature differences in humid regions (primarily in the eastern United States) and in cities with larger and denser populations.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title></title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/11_4/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Mon, 30 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/11_4/</guid>
|
||
<description>It is very likely that human activities have contributed to observed arctic surface temperature warming, sea ice loss, glacier mass loss, and Northern Hemisphere snow extent decline (high confidence).</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title></title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/12_4/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Mon, 30 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/12_4/</guid>
|
||
<description>As sea levels have risen, the number of tidal floods each year that cause minor impacts (also called “nuisance floods”) have increased 5- to 10-fold since the 1960s in several U.S. coastal cities (very high confidence). Rates of increase are accelerating in over 25 Atlantic and Gulf Coast cities (very high confidence). Tidal flooding will continue increasing in depth, frequency, and extent this century (very high confidence).</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title></title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/13_4/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Mon, 30 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/13_4/</guid>
|
||
<description>Increasing sea surface temperatures, rising sea levels, and changing patterns of precipitation, winds, nutrients, and ocean circulation are contributing to overall declining oxygen concentrations at intermediate depths in various ocean locations and in many coastal areas. Over the last half century, major oxygen losses have occurred in inland seas, estuaries, and in the coastal and open ocean (high confidence). Ocean oxygen levels are projected to decrease by as much as 3.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title></title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/14_4/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Mon, 30 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/14_4/</guid>
|
||
<description>Further assessments of the technical feasibilities, costs, risks, co-benefits, and governance challenges of climate intervention or geoengineering strategies, which are as yet unproven at scale, are a necessary step before judgments about the benefits and risks of these approaches can be made with high confidence. (High confidence)</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title></title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/1_4/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Mon, 30 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/1_4/</guid>
|
||
<description>Global climate is projected to continue to change over this century and beyond. The magnitude of climate change beyond the next few decades will depend primarily on the amount of greenhouse (heat-trapping) gases emitted globally and on the remaining uncertainty in the sensitivity of Earth’s climate to those emissions (very high confidence). With significant reductions in the emissions of greenhouse gases, the global annually averaged temperature rise could be limited to 3.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title></title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/4_4/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Mon, 30 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/4_4/</guid>
|
||
<description>Global mean atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration has now passed 400 ppm, a level that last occurred about 3 million years ago, when global average temperature and sea level were significantly higher than today (high confidence). Continued growth in CO2 emissions over this century and beyond would lead to an atmospheric concentration not experienced in tens of millions of years (medium confidence). The present-day emissions rate of nearly 10 GtC per year suggests that there is no climate analog for this century any time in at least the last 50 million years (medium confidence).</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title></title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/6_4/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Mon, 30 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/6_4/</guid>
|
||
<description>Extreme temperatures in the contiguous United States are projected to increase even more than average temperatures. The temperatures of extremely cold days and extremely warm days are both expected to increase. Cold waves are projected to become less intense while heat waves will become more intense. The number of days below freezing is projected to decline while the number above 90°F will rise. (Very high confidence)</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title></title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/7_4/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Mon, 30 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/7_4/</guid>
|
||
<description>Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover extent, North America maximum snow depth, snow water equivalent in the western United States, and extreme snowfall years in the southern and western United States have all declined, while extreme snowfall years in parts of the northern United States have increased (medium confidence). Projections indicate large declines in snowpack in the western United States and shifts to more precipitation falling as rain than snow in the cold season in many parts of the central and eastern United States (high confidence).</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title></title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/8_4/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Mon, 30 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/8_4/</guid>
|
||
<description>Substantial reductions in western U.S. winter and spring snowpack are projected as the climate warms. Earlier spring melt and reduced snow water equivalent have been formally attributed to human-induced warming (high confidence) and will very likely be exacerbated as the climate continues to warm (very high confidence). Under higher scenarios, and assuming no change to current water resources management, chronic, long-duration hydrological drought is increasingly possible by the end of this century (very high confidence).</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title></title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/9_4/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Mon, 30 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/9_4/</guid>
|
||
<description>There has been a trend toward earlier snowmelt and a decrease in snowstorm frequency on the southern margins of climatologically snowy areas (medium confidence). Winter storm tracks have shifted northward since 1950 over the Northern Hemisphere (medium confidence). Projections of winter storm frequency and intensity over the United States vary from increasing to decreasing depending on region, but model agreement is poor and confidence is low. Potential linkages between the frequency and intensity of severe winter storms in the United States and accelerated warming in the Arctic have been postulated, but they are complex, and, to some extent contested, and confidence in the connection is currently low.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Climatic Tipping Elements</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/15/15.4/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Thu, 12 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/15/15.4/</guid>
|
||
<description>Different parts of the Earth system exhibit critical thresholds, sometimes called “tipping points” (e.g., Lenton et al. 2008;10 Collins et al. 2013;25 NRC 2013;33 Kopp et al. 201611 ). These parts, known as tipping elements, have the potential to enter into self-amplifying cycles that commit them to shifting from their current state into a new state: for example, from one in which the summer Arctic Ocean is covered by ice, to one in which it is ice-free.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Ocean Deoxygenation</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/13/13.4/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Wed, 11 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/13/13.4/</guid>
|
||
<description>13.4.1 General Background Oxygen is essential to most life in the ocean, governing a host of biogeochemical and biological processes. Oxygen influences metabolic, physiological, reproductive, behavioral, and ecological processes, ultimately shaping the composition, diversity, abundance, and distribution of organisms from microbes to whales. Increasingly, climate-induced oxygen loss (deoxygenation) associated with ocean warming and reduced ventilation to deep waters has become evident locally, regionally, and globally. Deoxygenation can also be attributed to anthropogenic nutrient input, especially in the coastal regions, where the nutrients can lead to the proliferation of primary production and, consequently, enhanced drawdown of dissolved oxygen by microbes.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Multistep Attribution and Attribution without Detection</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/appendix-c/c4/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Tue, 10 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/appendix-c/c4/</guid>
|
||
<description>A growing number of climate change and extreme event attribution studies use a multistep attribution approach,1 based on attribution of a change in climate conditions that are closely related to the variable or event of interest. In the multistep approach, an observed change in the variable of interest is attributed to a change in climate or other environmental conditions, and then the changes in the climate or environmental conditions are separately attributed to an external forcing, such as anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Urban Environments and Climate Change</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/10/10.4/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Tue, 10 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/10/10.4/</guid>
|
||
<description>Urban areas exhibit several characteristics that affect land-surface and geophysical attributes, including building infrastructure (rougher, more uneven surfaces compared to rural or natural systems), increased emissions and concentrations of aerosols and other greenhouse gasses, and increased anthropogenic heat sources.101 ,102 The understanding that urban areas modify their surrounding environment has been accepted for over a century, but the mechanisms through which this occurs have only begun to be understood and analyzed for more than 40 years.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Industrial-era Changes in Radiative Forcing Agents</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/2/2.4/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Fri, 06 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/2/2.4/</guid>
|
||
<description>The IPCC best-estimate values of present day RFs and ERFs from principal anthropogenic and natural climate drivers are shown in Figure 2.3 and in Table 2.1. The past changes in the industrial era leading up to present day RF are shown for anthropogenic gases in Figure 2.5 and for all climate drivers in Figure 2.6.
|
||
Table 2.1. Global mean RF and ERF values in 2011 for the industrial era.a Radiative Forcing Term Radiative forcing (W/m2) Effective radiative forcing (W/m2)b Well-mixed greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, N2O, and halocarbons) +2.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Recent Past Trends (20th and 21st Centuries)</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/12/12.4/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Fri, 06 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/12/12.4/</guid>
|
||
<description>12.4.1 Global Tide Gauge Network and Satellite Observations A global tide gauge network provides the century-long observations of local RSL, whereas satellite altimetry provides broader coverage of sea surface heights outside the polar regions starting in 1993. GMSL can be estimated through statistical analyses of either data set. GMSL trends over the 1901–1990 period vary slightly (Hay et al. 2015:33 1.2 ± 0.2 mm/year [0.05 inches/year]; Church and White 2011:34 1.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Trends in Global Precipitation</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/1/1.4/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Fri, 06 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/1/1.4/</guid>
|
||
<description>Annual averaged precipitation across global land areas exhibits a slight rise (that is not statistically significant because of a lack of data coverage early in the record) over the past century (see Figure 1.7) along with ongoing increases in atmospheric moisture levels. Interannual and interdecadal variability is clearly found in all precipitation evaluations, owing to factors such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and ENSO—note that precipitation reconstructions are updated operationally by NOAA NCEI on a monthly basis.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Uncertainty in Future Projections</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/4/4.4/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Fri, 06 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/4/4.4/</guid>
|
||
<description>The timing and magnitude of projected future climate change is uncertain due to the ambiguity introduced by human choices (as discussed in Section 4.2), natural variability, and scientific uncertainty,87 ,98 ,99 which includes uncertainty in both scientific modeling and climate sensitivity (see Ch. 2: Physical Drivers of Climate Change). Confidence in projections of specific aspects of future climate change increases if formal detection and attribution analyses (Ch. 3: Detection and Attribution) indicate that an observed change has been influenced by human activities, and the projection is consistent with attribution.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Winter Storms</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/9/9.4/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Tue, 03 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/9/9.4/</guid>
|
||
<description>The frequency of large snowfall years has decreased in the southern United States and Pacific Northwest and increased in the northern United States (see Ch. 7: Precipitation Change). The winters of 2013&frasl;2014 and 2014&frasl;2015 have contributed to this trend. They were characterized by frequent storms and heavier-than-normal snowfalls in the Midwest and Northeast and drought in the western United States. These were related to blocking (a large-scale pressure pattern with little or no movement) of the wintertime circulation in the Pacific sector of the Northern Hemisphere (e.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Extreme Event Attribution</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/3/3.4/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Mon, 02 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/3/3.4/</guid>
|
||
<description>Since the IPCC AR5 and NCA3,2 the attribution of extreme weather and climate events has been an emerging area in the science of detection and attribution. Attribution of extreme weather events under a changing climate is now an important and highly visible aspect of climate science. As discussed in the recent National Academy of Sciences report,5 the science of event attribution is rapidly advancing, including the understanding of the mechanisms that produce extreme events and the rapid progress in development of methods used for event attribution.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Oceans Are Rising, Warming, and Becoming More Acidic</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/executive-summary/es4/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Mon, 02 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/executive-summary/es4/</guid>
|
||
<description>Oceans occupy two-thirds of the planet’s surface and host unique ecosystems and species, including those important for global commercial and subsistence fishing. Understanding climate impacts on the ocean and the ocean’s feedbacks to the climate system is critical for a comprehensive understanding of current and future changes in climate.
|
||
Global Ocean Heat The world’s oceans have absorbed about 93% of the excess heat caused by greenhouse gas warming since the mid-20th century, making them warmer and altering global and regional climate feedbacks.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Large-Scale Circulation and Climate Variability</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/5/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Tue, 31 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/5/</guid>
|
||
<description></description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title></title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/11_5/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Mon, 30 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/11_5/</guid>
|
||
<description>Atmospheric circulation patterns connect the climates of the Arctic and the contiguous United States. Evidenced by recent record warm temperatures in the Arctic and emerging science, the midlatitude circulation has influenced observed arctic temperatures and sea ice (high confidence). However, confidence is low regarding whether or by what mechanisms observed arctic warming may have influenced the midlatitude circulation and weather patterns over the continental United States. The influence of arctic changes on U.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title></title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/12_5/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Mon, 30 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/12_5/</guid>
|
||
<description>Assuming storm characteristics do not change, sea level rise will increase the frequency and extent of extreme flooding associated with coastal storms, such as hurricanes and nor’easters (very high confidence). A projected increase in the intensity of hurricanes in the North Atlantic (medium confidence) could increase the probability of extreme flooding along most of the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coast states beyond what would be projected based solely on RSL rise.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title></title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/1_5/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Mon, 30 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/1_5/</guid>
|
||
<description>Natural variability, including El Niño events and other recurring patterns of ocean–atmosphere interactions, impact temperature and precipitation, especially regionally, over months to years. The global influence of natural variability, however, is limited to a small fraction of observed climate trends over decades. (Very high confidence)</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title></title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/4_5/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Mon, 30 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/4_5/</guid>
|
||
<description>The observed increase in global carbon emissions over the past 15–20 years has been consistent with higher scenarios (very high confidence). In 2014 and 2015, emission growth rates slowed as economic growth has become less carbon-intensive (medium confidence). Even if this trend continues, however, it is not yet at a rate that would limit the increase in the global average temperature to well below 3.6°F (2°C) above preindustrial levels (high confidence).</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title></title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/8_5/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Mon, 30 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/8_5/</guid>
|
||
<description>Detectable changes in some classes of flood frequency have occurred in parts of the United States and are a mix of increases and decreases. Extreme precipitation, one of the controlling factors in flood statistics, is observed to have generally increased and is projected to continue to do so across the United States in a warming atmosphere. However, formal attribution approaches have not established a significant connection of increased riverine flooding to human-induced climate change, and the timing of any emergence of a future detectable anthropogenic change in flooding is unclear.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title></title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/9_5/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Mon, 30 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/9_5/</guid>
|
||
<description>The frequency and severity of landfalling “atmospheric rivers” on the U.S. West Coast (narrow streams of moisture that account for 30%–40% of the typical snowpack and annual precipitation in the region and are associated with severe flooding events) will increase as a result of increasing evaporation and resulting higher atmospheric water vapor that occurs with increasing temperature. (Medium confidence)</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Paleoclimatic Hints of Additional Potential Surprises </title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/15/15.5/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Thu, 12 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/15/15.5/</guid>
|
||
<description>The paleoclimatic record provides evidence for additional state shifts whose driving mechanisms are as yet poorly understood. As mentioned, global climate models tend to underestimate both the magnitude of global mean warming in response to higher CO2 levels as well as its amplification at high latitudes, compared to reconstructions of temperature and CO2 from the geological record. Three case studies—all periods well predating the first appearance of Homo sapiens around 200,000 years ago89 —illustrate the limitations of current scientific understanding in capturing the full range of self-reinforcing cycles that operate within the Earth system, particularly over millennial time scales.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Other Coastal Changes</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/13/13.5/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Wed, 11 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/13/13.5/</guid>
|
||
<description>13.5.1 Sea Level Rise Sea level is an important variable that affects coastal ecosystems. Global sea level rose rapidly at the end of the last glaciation, as glaciers and the polar ice sheets thinned and melted at their fringes. On average around the globe, sea level is estimated to have risen at rates exceeding 2.5 mm/year between about 8,000 and 6,000 years before present. These rates steadily decreased to less than 2.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Extreme Event Attribution Methodologies</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/appendix-c/c5/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Tue, 10 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/appendix-c/c5/</guid>
|
||
<description>Since the release of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5) and the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA3),23 there have been further advances in the science of detection and attribution of climate change. An emerging area in the science of detection and attribution is the attribution of extreme weather and climate events.24 ,25 ,26 According to Hulme,27 there are four general types of attribution methods that are applied in practice: physical reasoning, statistical analysis of time series, fraction of attributable risk (FAR) estimation, and the philosophical argument that there are no longer any purely natural weather events.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Projected Sea Level Rise</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/12/12.5/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Fri, 06 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/12/12.5/</guid>
|
||
<description>12.5.1 Scenarios of Global Mean Sea Level Rise No single physical model is capable of accurately representing all of the major processes contributing to GMSL and regional/local RSL rise. Accordingly, the U.S. Interagency Sea Level Rise Task Force (henceforth referred to as “Interagency”)71 has revised the GMSL rise scenarios for the United States and now provides six scenarios that can be used for assessment and risk-framing purposes (Figure 12.4a; Table 12.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>The Complex Relationship between Concentrations, Forcing, and Climate Response</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/2/2.5/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Fri, 06 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/2/2.5/</guid>
|
||
<description>Climate changes occur in response to ERFs, which generally include certain rapid responses to the underlying RF terms (Figure 2.2). Responses within Earth’s system to forcing can act to either amplify (positive feedback) or reduce (negative feedback) the original forcing. These feedbacks operate on a range of time scales, from days to centuries. Thus, in general, the full climate impact of a given forcing is not immediately realized. Of interest are the climate response at a given point in time under continuously evolving forcings and the total climate response realized for a given forcing.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Trends in Global Extreme Weather Events</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/1/1.5/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Fri, 06 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/1/1.5/</guid>
|
||
<description>A change in the frequency, duration, and/or magnitude of extreme weather events is one of the most important consequences of a warming climate. In statistical terms, a small shift in the mean of a weather variable, with or without this shift occurring in concert with a change in the shape of its probability distribution, can cause a large change in the probability of a value relative to an extreme threshold (see Figure 1.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Atmospheric Rivers</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/9/9.5/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Tue, 03 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/9/9.5/</guid>
|
||
<description>The term “atmospheric rivers” (ARs) refers to the relatively narrow streams of moisture transport that often occur within and across midlatitudes70 (Figure 9.4), in part because they often transport as much water as in the Amazon River.71 While ARs occupy less than 10% of the circumference of Earth at any given time, they account for 90% of the poleward moisture transport across midlatitudes (a more complete discussion of precipitation variability is found in Ch.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Climate Change in Alaska and across the Arctic Continues to Outpace Global Climate Change</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/executive-summary/es5/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Mon, 02 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/executive-summary/es5/</guid>
|
||
<description>Residents of Alaska are on the front lines of climate change. Crumbling buildings, roads, and bridges and eroding shorelines are commonplace. Accelerated melting of multiyear sea ice cover, mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet, reduced snow cover, and permafrost thawing are stark examples of the rapid changes occurring in the Arctic. Furthermore, because elements of the climate system are interconnected (see Box ES.1), changes in the Arctic influence climate conditions outside the Arctic.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Temperature Changes in the United States</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/6/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Tue, 31 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/6/</guid>
|
||
<description></description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title></title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/1_6/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Mon, 30 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/1_6/</guid>
|
||
<description>Longer-term climate records over past centuries and millennia indicate that average temperatures in recent decades over much of the world have been much higher, and have risen faster during this time period, than at any time in the past 1,700 years or more, the time period for which the global distribution of surface temperatures can be reconstructed. (High confidence)</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title></title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/4_6/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Mon, 30 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/4_6/</guid>
|
||
<description>Combining output from global climate models and dynamical and statistical downscaling models using advanced averaging, weighting, and pattern scaling approaches can result in more relevant and robust future projections. For some regions, sectors, and impacts, these techniques are increasing the ability of the scientific community to provide guidance on the use of climate projections for quantifying regional-scale changes and impacts (medium to high confidence).</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title></title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/8_6/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Mon, 30 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/key_finding/8_6/</guid>
|
||
<description>The incidence of large forest fires in the western United States and Alaska has increased since the early 1980s (high confidence) and is projected to further increase in those regions as the climate warms, with profound changes to certain ecosystems (medium confidence). </description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Box C.1: On the Use of Significance Levels and Significance Tests in Attribution Studies</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/appendix-c/c6/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Tue, 10 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/appendix-c/c6/</guid>
|
||
<description>Box C.1: On the Use of Significance Levels and Significance Tests in Attribution Studies In detection/attribution studies, a detectable observed change is one which is determined to be highly unlikely to occur (less than about a 10% chance) due to internal variability alone. Some frequently asked questions concern the use of such a high statistical threshold (significance level) in attribution studies. In this box, we respond to several such questions received in the public review period.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Extreme Water Levels</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/12/12.6/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Fri, 06 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/12/12.6/</guid>
|
||
<description>12.6.1 Observations Coastal flooding during extreme high-water events has become deeper due to local RSL rise and more frequent from a fixed-elevation perspective.78 ,101 ,102 ,103 Trends in annual frequencies surpassing local emergency preparedness thresholds for minor tidal flooding (i.e., “nuisance” levels of about 30–60 cm [1–2 feet]) that begin to flood infrastructure and trigger coastal flood “advisories” by NOAA’s National Weather Service have increased 5- to 10-fold or more since the 1960s along the U.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Global Changes in Land Processes </title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/1/1.6/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Fri, 06 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/1/1.6/</guid>
|
||
<description>Changes in regional land cover have had important effects on climate, while climate change also has important effects on land cover (also see Ch. 10: Land Cover).1 In some cases, there are changes in land cover that are both consequences of and influences on global climate change (e.g., declines in land ice and snow cover, thawing permafrost, and insect damage to forests).
|
||
Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent has decreased, especially in spring, primarily due to earlier spring snowmelt (by about 0.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Radiative-forcing Feedbacks </title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/2/2.6/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Fri, 06 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/2/2.6/</guid>
|
||
<description>2.6.1 Near-term Feedbacks PLANCK FEEDBACK
|
||
When the temperatures of Earth’s surface and atmosphere increase in response to RF, more infrared radiation is emitted into the lower atmosphere; this serves to restore radiative balance at the tropopause. This radiative feedback, defined as the Planck feedback, only partially offsets the positive RF while triggering other feedbacks that affect radiative balance. The Planck feedback magnitude is −3.20 ± 0.04 W/m2 per 1.8°F (1°C) of warming and is the strongest and primary stabilizing feedback in the climate system.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Limiting Globally Averaged Warming to 2°C (3.6°F) Will Require Major Reductions in Emissions</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/executive-summary/es6/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Mon, 02 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/executive-summary/es6/</guid>
|
||
<description>Human activities are now the dominant cause of the observed trends in climate. For that reason, future climate projections are based on scenarios of how human activities will continue to affect the climate over the remainder of this century and beyond (see Sidebar: Scenarios Used in this Assessment). There remains significant uncertainty about future emissions due to changing economic, political, and demographic factors. For that reason, this report quantifies possible climate changes for a broad set of plausible future scenarios through the end of the century.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title> Precipitation Change in the United States</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/7/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Tue, 31 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/7/</guid>
|
||
<description></description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Box C.2: Illustration of Ingredients-based Event Attribution: The Case of Hurricane Sandy</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/appendix-c/c7/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Fri, 27 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/appendix-c/c7/</guid>
|
||
<description>Box C.2: Illustration of Ingredients-based Event Attribution: The Case of Hurricane Sandy To illustrate some aspects of the conditional or ingredients-based attribution approach, the case of Hurricane Sandy can be considered. If one considers Hurricane Sandy’s surge event, there is strong evidence that sea level rise, at least partly anthropogenic in origin (see Ch. 12: Sea Level Rise), made Sandy’s surge event worse, all other factors being equal.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Global Changes in Sea Ice, Glaciers, and Land Ice</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/1/1.7/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Fri, 06 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/1/1.7/</guid>
|
||
<description>Since NCA3,144 there have been significant advances in the understanding of changes in the cryosphere. Observations continue to show declines in arctic sea ice extent and thickness, Northern Hemisphere snow cover, and the volume of mountain glaciers and continental ice sheets.1 ,145 ,146 ,147 ,148 ,149 Evidence suggests in many cases that the net loss of mass from the global cryosphere is accelerating indicating significant climate feedbacks and societal consequences.150 ,151 ,152 ,153 ,154 ,155 Arctic sea ice areal extent, thickness, and volume have declined since 1979.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>There is a Significant Possibility for Unanticipated Changes</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/executive-summary/es7/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Mon, 02 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/executive-summary/es7/</guid>
|
||
<description>Humanity’s effect on the Earth system, through the large-scale combustion of fossil fuels and widespread deforestation and the resulting release of carbon dioxide (CO2) into the atmosphere, as well as through emissions of other greenhouse gases and radiatively active substances from human activities, is unprecedented. There is significant potential for humanity’s effect on the planet to result in unanticipated surprises and a broad consensus that the further and faster the Earth system is pushed towards warming, the greater the risk of such surprises.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Droughts, Floods, and Wildfire</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/8/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Tue, 31 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/8/</guid>
|
||
<description></description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Global Changes in Sea Level</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/1/1.8/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Fri, 06 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/1/1.8/</guid>
|
||
<description>Statistical analyses of tide gauge data indicate that global mean sea level has risen about 8–9 inches (20–23 cm) since 1880, with a rise rate of approximately 0.5–0.6 inches/decade from 1901 to1990 (about 12–15 mm/decade; also see Ch. 12: Sea Level Rise).183 ,184 However, since the early 1990s, both tide gauges and satellite altimeters have recorded a faster rate of sea level rise of about 1.2 inches/decade (approximately 3 cm/decade),183 ,184 ,185 resulting in about 3 inches (about 8 cm) of the global rise since the early 1990s.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>A Summary of Advances Since NCA3</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/executive-summary/es8/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Mon, 02 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/executive-summary/es8/</guid>
|
||
<description>A Summary of Advances Since NCA3 Advances in scientific understanding and scientific approach, as well as developments in global policy, have occurred since NCA3. A detailed summary of these advances can be found at the end of Chapter 1: Our Globally Changing Climate. Highlights of what aspects are either especially strengthened or are emerging in the current findings include
|
||
Detection and attribution: Significant advances have been made in the attribution of the human influence for individual climate and weather extreme events since NCA3.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Extreme Storms</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/9/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Tue, 31 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/9/</guid>
|
||
<description></description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Recent Global Changes Relative to Paleoclimates</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/1/1.9/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Fri, 06 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/1/1.9/</guid>
|
||
<description>&nbsp; Figure 1.9 VIEW Proxy temperatures reconstructions for the seven regions of the PAGES 2k Network. Temperature anomalies are relative to the 1961–1990 reference period. If this graph were plotted relative to 1901–1960 instead of 1961–1990, the temperature changes would 0.47°F (0.26°C) higher. Gray lines around expected-value estimates indicate uncertainty ranges as defined by each regional group (see PAGE 2k Consortium9 and related Supplementary Information).</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Changes in Land Cover and Terrestrial Biogeochemistry</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/10/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Tue, 31 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/10/</guid>
|
||
<description></description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Arctic Changes and their Effects on Alaska and the Rest of the United States</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/11/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Tue, 31 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/11/</guid>
|
||
<description></description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Sea Level Rise</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/12/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Tue, 31 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/12/</guid>
|
||
<description></description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Ocean Acidification and Other Ocean Changes</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/13/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Tue, 31 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/13/</guid>
|
||
<description></description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Perspectives on Climate Change Mitigation</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/14/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Tue, 31 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/14/</guid>
|
||
<description></description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Potential Surprises: Compound Extremes and Tipping Elements</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/15/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Tue, 31 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/15/</guid>
|
||
<description></description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Appendix A: Observational Datasets Used in Climate Studies</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/appendix-a/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Tue, 31 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/appendix-a/</guid>
|
||
<description></description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Appendix B: Model Weighting Strategy</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/appendix-b/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Tue, 31 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/appendix-b/</guid>
|
||
<description></description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Appendix C: Detection and Attribution Methodologies Overview</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/appendix-c/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Tue, 31 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/appendix-c/</guid>
|
||
<description></description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Appendix D: Acronyms and Units</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/appendix-d/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Tue, 31 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/appendix-d/</guid>
|
||
<description></description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Appendix E: Glossary</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/appendix-e/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Tue, 31 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/appendix-e/</guid>
|
||
<description></description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>References</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/3/fn3/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Thu, 12 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/3/fn3/</guid>
|
||
<description>Andres, H. J., and W. R. Peltier, 2016: Regional influences of natural external forcings on the transition from the Medieval Climate Anomaly to the Little Ice Age. Journal of Climate, 29, 5779–5800, doi:10.1175/jcli-d-15-0599.1. ↩ Arblaster, J. M., E.-P. Lim, H. H. Hendon, B. C. Trewin, M. C. Wheeler, G. Liu, and K. Braganza, 2014: Understanding Australia’s hottest September on record [in “Explaining Extreme Events of 2013 from a Climate Perspective”].</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>References</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/13/fn13/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Wed, 11 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/13/fn13/</guid>
|
||
<description>Abraham, J. P. et al., 2013: A review of global ocean temperature observations: Implications for ocean heat content estimates and climate change. Reviews of Geophysics, 51, 450–483, doi:10.1002/rog.20022. ↩ Altieri, A. H., and K. B. Gedan, 2015: Climate change and dead zones. Global Change Biology, 21, 1395–1406, doi:10.1111/gcb.12754. ↩ Astor, Y. M., L. Lorenzoni, R. Thunell, R. Varela, F. Muller-Karger, L. Troccoli, G. T. Taylor, M. I. Scranton, E. Tappa, and D.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>References</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/14/fn14/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Wed, 11 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/14/fn14/</guid>
|
||
<description>Allen, M. R., D. J. Frame, C. Huntingford, C. D. Jones, J. A. Lowe, M. Meinshausen, and N. Meinshausen, 2009: Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions towards the trillionth tonne. Nature, 458, 1163–1166, doi:10.1038/nature08019. ↩ Anenberg, S. C., J. Schwartz, D. Shindell, M. Amann, G. Faluvegi, Z. Klimont, G. Janssens-Maenhout, L. Pozzoli, R. Van Dingenen, E. Vignati, L. Emberson, N. Z. Muller, J. J. West, M. Williams, V. Demkine, W.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>References</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/10/fn10/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Tue, 10 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/10/fn10/</guid>
|
||
<description>Adams, H. D., A. D. Collins, S. P. Briggs, M. Vennetier, L. T. Dickman, S. A. Sevanto, N. Garcia-Forner, H. H. Powers, and N. G. McDowell, 2015: Experimental drought and heat can delay phenological development and reduce foliar and shoot growth in semiarid trees. Global Change Biology, 21, 4210–4220, doi:10.1111/gcb.13030. ↩ Anav, A., P. Friedlingstein, M. Kidston, L. Bopp, P. Ciais, P. Cox, C. Jones, M. Jung, R. Myneni, and Z.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>References</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/appendix-c/fnc/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Tue, 10 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/appendix-c/fnc/</guid>
|
||
<description>Allen, M. R., and P. A. Stott, 2003: Estimating signal amplitudes in optimal fingerprinting, Part I: Theory. Climate Dynamics, 21, 477–491, doi:10.1007/s00382-003-0313-9. ↩ Anderegg, W. R. L., E. S. Callaway, M. T. Boykoff, G. Yohe, and T. y L. Root, 2014: Awareness of both type 1 and 2 errors in climate science and assessment. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 95, 1445–1451, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00115.1. ↩ Bindoff, N. L., P. A. Stott, K.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>References</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/7/fn7/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Mon, 09 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/7/fn7/</guid>
|
||
<description>Anderson, B. T., D. J. Gianotti, and G. D. Salvucci, 2015: Detectability of historical trends in station-based precipitation characteristics over the continental United States. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 120, 4842–4859, doi:10.1002/2014JD022960. ↩ Angélil, O., D. Stone, M. Wehner, C. J. Paciorek, H. Krishnan, and W. Collins, 2017: An independent assessment of anthropogenic attribution statements for recent extreme temperature and rainfall events. Journal of Climate, 30, 5–16, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0077.1. ↩ Bacmeister, J.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>References</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/1/fn1/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Fri, 06 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/1/fn1/</guid>
|
||
<description>Adler, R. F., G. J. Huffman, A. Chang, R. Ferraro, P.-P. Xie, J. Janowiak, B. Rudolf, U. Schneider, S. Curtis, D. Bolvin, A. Gruber, J. Susskind, P. Arkin, and E. Nelkin, 2003: The version-2 Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) monthly precipitation analysis (1979–present). Journal of Hydrometeorology, 4, 1147–1167, doi:2.0.CO;2'10.1175/1525-7541(2003)0042.0.CO;2. ↩ Alexander, L. V. et al., 2006: Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation. Journal of Geophysical Research, 111, D05109, doi:10.</description>
|
||
</item>
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||
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||
<item>
|
||
<title>References</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/12/fn12/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Fri, 06 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/12/fn12/</guid>
|
||
<description>Applegate, P. J., and K. Keller, 2015: How effective is albedo modification (solar radiation management geoengineering) in preventing sea-level rise from the Greenland Ice Sheet? Environmental Research Letters, 10, 084018, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/084018. ↩ Atkinson, J., J. M. Smith, and C. Bender, 2013: Sea-level rise effects on storm surge and nearshore waves on the Texas coast: Influence of landscape and storm characteristics. Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering, 139, 98–117, doi:10.</description>
|
||
</item>
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||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>References</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/2/fn2/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Fri, 06 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/2/fn2/</guid>
|
||
<description>ACC-MIP, 2017: Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate MIP. WCRP Working Group on Coupled Modeling. URL ↩ Allen, M. R., and W. J. Ingram, 2002: Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle. Nature, 419, 224–232, doi:10.1038/nature01092. ↩ Alley, K. E., T. A. Scambos, M. R. Siegfried, and H. A. Fricker, 2016: Impacts of warm water on Antarctic ice shelf stability through basal channel formation. Nature Geoscience, 9, 290–293, doi:10.</description>
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||
</item>
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||
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||
<item>
|
||
<title>References</title>
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||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/4/fn4/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Fri, 06 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
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||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/4/fn4/</guid>
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||
<description>Bellenger, H., E. Guilyardi, J. Leloup, M. Lengaigne, and J. Vialard, 2014: ENSO representation in climate models: From CMIP3 to CMIP5. Climate Dynamics, 42, 1999–2018, doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1783-z. ↩ Bowen, G. J., B. J. Maibauer, M. J. Kraus, U. Rohl, T. Westerhold, A. Steimke, P. D. Gingerich, S. L. Wing, and W. C. Clyde, 2015: Two massive, rapid releases of carbon during the onset of the Palaeocene-Eocene thermal maximum. Nature Geoscience, 8, 44–47, doi:10.</description>
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</item>
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||
<item>
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||
<title>References</title>
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||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/6/fn6/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Fri, 06 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
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||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/6/fn6/</guid>
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||
<description>Abatzoglou, J. T., and K. T. Redmond, 2007: Asymmetry between trends in spring and autumn temperature and circulation regimes over western North America. Geophysical Research Letters, 34, L18808, doi:10.1029/2007GL030891. ↩ Angélil, O., D. Stone, M. Wehner, C. J. Paciorek, H. Krishnan, and W. Collins, 2017: An independent assessment of anthropogenic attribution statements for recent extreme temperature and rainfall events. Journal of Climate, 30, 5–16, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0077.1. ↩ Bindoff, N. L., P.</description>
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||
</item>
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||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>References</title>
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||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/appendix-a/fn/</link>
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||
<pubDate>Fri, 06 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
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||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/appendix-a/fn/</guid>
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||
<description>Christy, J. R., R. W. Spencer, W. B. Norris, W. D. Braswell, and D. E. Parker, 2003: Error estimates of version 5.0 of MSU–AMSU bulk atmospheric temperatures. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 20, 613–629, doi:2.0.CO;2'10.1175/1520-0426(2003)202.0.CO;2. ↩ Fu, Q., and C. M. Johanson, 2005: Satellite-derived vertical dependence of tropical tropospheric temperature trends. Geophysical Research Letters, 32, L10703, doi:10.1029/2004GL022266. ↩ Karl, T. R., A. Arguez, B. Huang, J. H. Lawrimore, J.</description>
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</item>
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||
<item>
|
||
<title>References</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/appendix-b/fnb/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Fri, 06 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/appendix-b/fnb/</guid>
|
||
<description>Aumann, H. H., M. T. Chahine, C. Gautier, M. D. Goldberg, E. Kalnay, L. M. McMillin, H. Revercomb, P. W. Rosenkranz, W. L. Smith, D. H. Staelin, L. L. Strow, and J. Susskind, 2003: AIRS/AMSU/HSB on the Aqua mission: Design, science objectives, data products, and processing systems. IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing, 41, 253–264, doi:10.1109/TGRS.2002.808356. ↩ Hopkinson, R. F., M. F. Hutchinson, D. W. McKenney, E. J. Milewska, and P.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>References</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/8/fn8/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Wed, 04 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/8/fn8/</guid>
|
||
<description>AECOM, 2013: The Impact of Climate Change and Population Growth on the National Flood Insurance Program Through 2100. 257 pp. URL ↩ Abatzoglou, J. T., and A. P. Williams, 2016: Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 113, 11770–11775, doi:10.1073/pnas.1607171113. ↩ Andreadis, K. M., and D. P. Lettenmaier, 2006: Trends in 20th century drought over the continental United States.</description>
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</item>
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<item>
|
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<title>References</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/11/fn11/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Tue, 03 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/11/fn11/</guid>
|
||
<description>AMAP, 2011: Snow, Water, Ice and Permafrost in the Arctic (SWIPA): Climate Change and the Cryosphere. Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme, 538 pp. URL ↩ Andresen, C. S., F. Straneo, M. H. Ribergaard, A. A. Bjork, T. J. Andersen, A. Kuijpers, N. Norgaard-Pedersen, K. H. Kjaer, F. Schjoth, K. Weckstrom, and A. P. Ahlstrom, 2012: Rapid response of Helheim Glacier in Greenland to climate variability over the past century. Nature Geoscience, 5, 37–41, doi:10.</description>
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||
</item>
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||
<item>
|
||
<title>References</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/9/fn9/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Tue, 03 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/9/fn9/</guid>
|
||
<description>Allen, J. T., and M. K. Tippett, 2015: 10, 1–31. URL ↩ Barnes, E. A., and L. M. Polvani, 2015: CMIP5 projections of Arctic amplification, of the North American/North Atlantic circulation, and of their relationship. Journal of Climate, 28, 5254–5271, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00589.1. ↩ Bindoff, N. L., P. A. Stott, K. M. AchutaRao, M. R. Allen, N. Gillett, D. Gutzler, K. Hansingo, G. Hegerl, Y. Hu, S. Jain, I. I. Mokhov, J.</description>
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</item>
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<item>
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||
<title>References</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/5/fn5/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Sat, 08 Jul 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/5/fn5/</guid>
|
||
<description>Adam, O., T. Schneider, and N. Harnik, 2014: Role of changes in mean temperatures versus temperature gradients in the recent widening of the Hadley circulation. Journal of Climate, 27, 7450–7461, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00140.1. ↩ Alexander, M. A., D. J. Vimont, P. Chang, and J. D. Scott, 2010: The impact of extratropical atmospheric variability on ENSO: Testing the seasonal footprinting mechanism using coupled model experiments. Journal of Climate, 23, 2885–2901, doi:10.1175/2010jcli3205.1. ↩ Allen, R.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>References</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/15/fn15/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Sun, 02 Jul 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/15/fn15/</guid>
|
||
<description>AghaKouchak, A., L. Cheng, O. Mazdiyasni, and A. Farahmand, 2014: Global warming and changes in risk of concurrent climate extremes: Insights from the 2014 California drought. Geophysical Research Letters, 41, 8847–8852, doi:10.1002/2014GL062308. ↩ Anagnostou, E., E. H. John, K. M. Edgar, G. L. Foster, A. Ridgwell, G. N. Inglis, R. D. Pancost, D. J. Lunt, and P. N. Pearson, 2016: Changing atmospheric CO 2 concentration was the primary driver of early Cenozoic climate.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title></title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/appendix-d/d1/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Fri, 27 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/appendix-d/d1/</guid>
|
||
<description>Acronyms doi: 10.7930/J0ZC811D
|
||
" aria-label="doi: 10.7930/J0ZC811D" Recommended Citation AGCM Atmospheric General Circulation Model AIS Antarctic Ice Sheet AMO Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation AMOC Atlantic meridional overturning circulation AMSU Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit AO Arctic Oscillation AOD aerosol optical depth AR atmospheric river AW Atlantic Water BAMS Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society BC black carbon BCE Before Common Era CAM5 Community Atmospheric Model, Version 5 CAPE convective available potential energy CCN cloud condensation nuclei CCSM3 Community Climate System Model, Version 3 CDR carbon dioxide removal CE Common Era CENRS Committee on Environment, Natural Resources, and Sustainability (National Science and Technology Council, White House) CESM-LE Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble Project CFCs chlorofluorocarbons CI climate intervention CMIP5 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Fifth Phase (also CMIP3 and CMIP6) CONUS contiguous United States CP Central Pacific CSSR Climate Science Special Report DIC dissolved inorganic carbon DJF December-January-February DoD SERDP SERDP U.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title></title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/appendix-e/e1/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Mon, 16 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report_section/appendix-e/e1/</guid>
|
||
<description>$(function() { $("dl.glossary a[href^='#']").on("click", function (e) { var href = $(this).attr("href"); console.log("here: ", href); scroll_to_div(href, 235); returnf(false); }); }); Glossary doi: 10.7930/J0TM789P
|
||
" aria-label="doi: 10.7930/J0TM789P" Recommended Citation
|
||
Abrupt climate change Change in the climate system on a timescale shorter than the timescale of the responsible forcing. In the case of anthropogenic forcing over the past century, abrupt change occurs over decades or less.</description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Status</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/status/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Wed, 04 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/status/</guid>
|
||
<description></description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Search</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/search/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Fri, 08 Sep 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/search/</guid>
|
||
<description></description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Credits</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/credits/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Wed, 28 Jun 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/credits/</guid>
|
||
<description></description>
|
||
</item>
|
||
|
||
<item>
|
||
<title>Downloads</title>
|
||
<link>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/downloads/</link>
|
||
<pubDate>Mon, 26 Jun 2017 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
|
||
|
||
<guid>https://science2017.globalchange.gov/downloads/</guid>
|
||
<description></description>
|
||
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|
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|
||
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